KMTR [110228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMTR 110228
LSRMTR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
728 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM HAIL PRUNEDALE 36.80N 121.66W
10/10/2012 E0.25 INCH MONTEREY CA NWS EMPLOYEE

HAIL REPORTED ON THE US 101 AND HWY 156 INTERCHANGE NEAR
PRUNEDALE. ALSO, HEAVY RAIN REPORTED.


&&

$$

CRILEY

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110059
SWODY1
SPC AC 110057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2012

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES OVER WRN
CONUS...WITH NRN-STREAM RIDGING OVER CANADIAN PAC COAST AND
WELL-DEFINED/CUT-OFF CYCLONE COVERING PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN CA COAST.
CYCLONE IS FCST TO DRIFT SEWD OVER CA COAST THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD...WHILE STG RIDGING PERSISTS TO ITS E ACROSS NERN MEX...W
TX...NM...AND UT. IN NRN STREAM...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF ERN CONUS AND CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...THOUGH HEIGHTS ARE
RISING OVER PLAINS DUE TO EWD DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER
UPPER GREAT LAKES.

AT SFC...23Z ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW IN ACT/TPL
AREA...WITH FRONT ESEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL LA...AND WSWWD INTO BIG
BEND REGION. BOUNDARY STILL WAS MOVING SWD AS COLD FRONT OVER LA
AND E TX...BUT DECELERATING..WHILE IT HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY
ELSEWHERE. FRONTAL ZONE FROM CENTRAL TX WWD SHOULD BEGIN MOVING NWD
OVERNIGHT...WHILE BROAD PLUME OF ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL WAA/RETURN FLOW
OCCURS N OF SFC FRONT.

...S TX TO ARKLATEX/WRN OZARKS REGIONS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OVER
MIDDLE-LOWER TX COASTAL PLAIN EWD TO GULF WATERS. THIS IS OCCURRING
AMIDST RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTING ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG
MLCAPE...WEAKLY CAPPED...BASED ON 00Z BRO/CRP/LCH RAOBS. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND DEPTH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT NWD FROM THAT
AREA TO WRN OZARKS REGION...AS BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT BOOSTS
INCREASINGLY MOIST PARCELS TO LFC.

...LOWER CO RIVER REGION TO SRN NV AND CENTRAL CA COAST...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN TWO
PRIMARY CORRIDORS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE BETWEEN...
1. YUM-LAS SWATH NWD INTO SRN NV...WHERE PLUME OF 50S F SFC DEW
POINTS AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE JUXTAPOSED WITH
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND WAA PLUME.
2. COLD-CORE PROXIMITY CONVECTION AND NW-FRINGE OF WARM-CONVEYOR
REGIME OVER CENTRAL CA...WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
STEEP AMIDST AT LEAST MRGL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

SMALL HAIL AND STG GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN EITHER REGIME...BUT SVR
POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW AND CONDITIONAL FOR AOA 5% PROBABILITIES.

..EDWARDS.. 10/11/2012

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KAPX [110012]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KAPX 110012
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
812 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM SNOW 9 SSW GAYLORD 44.91N 84.74W
10/10/2012 M0.5 INCH OTSEGO MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

6 HR TOTAL THRU 8 PM. SNOW DEPTH IS A TRACE. MEASURED AT
THE NWS OFFICE.


&&

$$

LAWRENCE

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KAPX [110009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 110009
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
809 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM SNOW 9 SSW GAYLORD 44.91N 84.74W
10/10/2012 M0.5 INCH OTSEGO MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

MEASURED AT THE NWS OFFICE.


&&

$$

LAWRENCE

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KMTR [110009]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS56 KMTR 110009
LSRMTR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
508 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM HAIL GILROY 37.01N 121.58W
10/10/2012 M0.75 INCH SANTA CLARA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED BY SPOTTER IN GILROY

0340 PM HAIL GILROY 37.01N 121.58W
10/10/2012 M1.00 INCH SANTA CLARA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED BY SPOTTER NEAR GILROY

0443 PM HAIL LOS GATOS 37.23N 121.96W
10/10/2012 E0.25 INCH SANTA CLARA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN LOS GATOS

0443 PM HAIL GILROY 37.01N 121.58W
10/10/2012 E0.25 INCH SANTA CLARA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTS OF HAIL DEPTH UP TO 2 INCHES IN AREAS NEAR GILROY



&&

$$

JOHNSON

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KMTR [102344]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMTR 102344
LSRMTR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
444 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0443 PM HAIL LOS GATOS 37.23N 121.96W
10/10/2012 E0.25 INCH SANTA CLARA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN LOS GATOS

0443 PM HAIL GILROY 37.01N 121.58W
10/10/2012 E0.25 INCH SANTA CLARA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTS OF HAIL DEPTH UP TO 2 INCHES IN AREAS NEAR GILROY



&&

$$

JOHNSON

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KMTR [102316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMTR 102316
LSRMTR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
416 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM HAIL GILROY 37.01N 121.58W
10/10/2012 M1.00 INCH SANTA CLARA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED BY SPOTTER NEAR GILROY


&&

$$

JOHNSON

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KMTR [102305]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMTR 102305
LSRMTR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA
405 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM HAIL GILROY 37.01N 121.58W
10/10/2012 M0.75 INCH SANTA CLARA CA TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED BY SPOTTER IN GILROY


&&

$$

JOHNSON

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KLOX [102146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KLOX 102146
LSRLOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
245 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 S POINT MUGU 34.05N 119.06W
10/10/2012 PZZ655 CA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

VENTURA COUNTY FIRE AND POINT MUGU REPORTED SEVERAL
FUNNEL CLOUDS OVER COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN 1030 AM AND
NOON.


&&

$$

GOMBERG

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101950
SWODY1
SPC AC 101948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2012

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONGREGATED ALONG A LOW
LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHER SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DEEPENING ALONG OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE SURGE AS
IT SPREADS INLAND ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST. GIVEN THE WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL HEATING ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN WHERE STRONG HEATING/STEEP LAPSE RATES
COINCIDE WITH LEADING EDGE OF FORCING AHEAD OF CA UPPER LOW.

EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING CONVECTION ACROSS S FL REMAIN.

..DARROW.. 10/10/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE A SEPARATE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EWD NEAR THE CENTRAL/SRN CA COAST. ONE BAND OF CONVECTION
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CA COAST WITH THE MIDLEVEL COLD CORE...AND ANOTHER BROKEN
BAND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INVOF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY
WITHIN THE ZONE OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL LOW...WHERE A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IN UNDERWAY.

...E TX THIS AFTERNOON INTO ERN OK/AR OVERNIGHT...
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CA CLOSED LOW...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID 70S
DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS TX...TO THE S OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/NE TX AND NW LA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS MOIST AIR MASS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COASTS...THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED IN A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER INLAND
ALONG THE FRONT...THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL FEATURE SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
HOWEVER...OTHER THAN WEAK LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THE
LARGER-SCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND GRADUAL
EWD EXPANSION OF THE WARM EML ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THUS...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY NOT FORM UNTIL
THE END OF THE PERIOD TO THE N OF THE FRONT IN THE WAA REGIME WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...WILL OPT TO NOT ADD
ANY HAIL PROBABILITIES IN THIS UPDATE.

...SE FL COAST THIS AFTERNOON...
A WEAK E COAST SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
IN A NLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWED THE
POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF
86-90 F...WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN RATHER SPARSE IN THE WEAKLY FORCED
ENVIRONMENT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AND DRYING IN THE 600-400 MB LAYER OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE OVERALL RISK APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT THE
INTRODUCTION OF DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 101728
SWODY2
SPC AC 101726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2012

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN MO/NRN AR INTO THE WRN
TN VALLEY...

...SRN MO/NRN AR INTO NWRN TN...

SECONDARY SURGE OF CONTINENTAL AIR WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY THURSDAY WHICH WILL FORCE A SFC BOUNDARY INTO
SRN KS/CNTRL MO BY 12/00Z. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE WILL RETURN ACROSS OK INTO SWRN MO AS LLJ VEERS AND FOCUSES
ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN
THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS AND THE DEEPER WLY COMPONENT ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ADVECTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN MO/NRN AR
INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY. LATEST THINKING IS NEAR-POST
FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME
ACROSS SRN MO DURING THE EVENING HOURS THEN PROPAGATE SEWD TOWARD
THE WRN TN VALLEY PRIOR TO SUNRISE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
STRONG CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
GENERATING HAIL...SOME OF IT COULD EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS. GIVEN THAT
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION HAVE OPTED
TO INCREASE SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED HAIL.

...SRN PLAINS...

SHORT-WAVE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE SRN HIGH PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN
THE PERIOD WHEN HEIGHTS WILL FALL IN RESPONSE TO SWRN U.S. UPPER
LOW. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FAVOR MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS FAR
WEST TX ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS THE DEMARCATION
OF DRYLINE BY PEAK HEATING. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ALONG THE
DRYLINE SHOULD ENABLE READINGS TO APPROACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG
AND ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITHIN MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEARED REGIME. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL COULD
ACCOMPANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.


...SWRN U.S...

12HR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 90M WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INTO AZ LATE DAY2. FOCUSED EXIT REGION OF
UPPER JET WILL SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION ENHANCING THE PROSPECT FOR
CONVECTION WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED BUT WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM SERN NV INTO NRN AZ CERTAINLY ARE MORE THAN
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES
SHOULD ENCOURAGE LOW-TOPPED TSTM ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT
MEAGER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL NOT INCREASE SEVERE PROBS ACROSS
THIS REGION BUT HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION.

..DARROW.. 10/10/2012

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KGRR [101636]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 101636
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1236 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 PM HAIL 5 WNW LANSING 42.76N 84.64W
10/10/2012 M0.25 INCH EATON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZE HAIL OBSERVED.


&&

$$

HOVING

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101627
SWODY1
SPC AC 101625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE NRN STREAM WILL REMAIN OVER THE NRN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE A SEPARATE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EWD NEAR THE CENTRAL/SRN CA COAST. ONE BAND OF CONVECTION
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CA COAST WITH THE MIDLEVEL COLD CORE...AND ANOTHER BROKEN
BAND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INVOF THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY
WITHIN THE ZONE OF ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL LOW...WHERE A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING IN UNDERWAY.

...E TX THIS AFTERNOON INTO ERN OK/AR OVERNIGHT...
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CA CLOSED LOW...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE SRN PLAINS. A TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID 70S
DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS TX...TO THE S OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/NE TX AND NW LA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS MOIST AIR MASS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COASTS...THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED IN A WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER INLAND
ALONG THE FRONT...THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL FEATURE SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
HOWEVER...OTHER THAN WEAK LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THE
LARGER-SCALE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND GRADUAL
EWD EXPANSION OF THE WARM EML ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THUS...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...AND ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY NOT FORM UNTIL
THE END OF THE PERIOD TO THE N OF THE FRONT IN THE WAA REGIME WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS...WILL OPT TO NOT ADD
ANY HAIL PROBABILITIES IN THIS UPDATE.

...SE FL COAST THIS AFTERNOON...
A WEAK E COAST SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
IN A NLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWED THE
POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES OF
86-90 F...WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN RATHER SPARSE IN THE WEAKLY FORCED
ENVIRONMENT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST CANNOT BE RULED OUT
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AND DRYING IN THE 600-400 MB LAYER OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE OVERALL RISK APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT THE
INTRODUCTION OF DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES.

..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 10/10/2012

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KKEY [101550]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 101550
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1150 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1127 AM WATER SPOUT 8 SSW KEY LARGO 25.00N 80.49W
10/10/2012 GMZ042 FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

A WATERSPOUT WAS REPORTED BY A FIRE DEPARTMENT EMPLOYEE
IN HAWK CHANNEL.


&&

$$

MPARKE

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KGRR [101513]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 101513
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1113 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM SLEET 2 W DUTTON 42.84N 85.62W
10/10/2012 U0.00 INCH KENT MI TRAINED SPOTTER

SLEET MIXED WITH RAIN.


&&

$$

HOVING

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101256
SWODY1
SPC AC 101254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRACK EWD TO
NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF OF THE CA COAST IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND AND BEGIN EJECTING ENEWD BY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...MID/UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHILE BEGINNING TO RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE CONUS
SHOULD BE GREATER COMPARED TO TUESDAY...ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

...SE TX/SW LA NWD TO THE OZARKS...
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS OF SE
TX/SW LA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT AN EML AND LACK OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OF TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM
NE TX/NW LA NWD INTO THE OZARKS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS MAY
SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT STRONGEST ASCENT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE MOST FAVORABLE ELEVATED BUOYANCY.

...CA...NV...WRN UT...WRN AZ...
TSTM COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE UPPER LOW SHOULD EXPAND
INLAND OVER THE SWRN CONUS ON WED. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE
FOCUSED IN TWO MAIN AREAS...ONE ALONG THE CNTRL/SRN COAST OF CA IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND
A SECOND AREA ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ENHANCED DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

...ERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION OF WRN NY...
COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND A FAVORABLE WLY FETCH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL SUPPORT BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST ISOLATED LTG ACTIVITY.

..DEAN/CORFIDI.. 10/10/2012

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 100856
SWOD48
SPC AC 100856

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
UNCERTAINTIES PERSIST DUE TO LINGERING SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND MODEL
ENSEMBLES CONCERNING THE NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF A SIGNIFICANT
CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS MOST PROBABLE THAT
INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR AND FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION WILL BECOME MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SUB-1000 MB SURFACE CYCLONE ON
SATURDAY...AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EVEN WITH ONLY WEAK DESTABILIZATION...THE
ENVIRONMENT NEAR A 70-90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK AND
50-70 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A
SUBSTANTIVE REGIONAL SEVERE CONVECTIVE EVENT WITH DAMAGING WIND AND
PERHAPS TORNADOES.

IT MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD
CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER IMPULSE DEAMPLIFIES.
HOWEVER...INCREASING MODEL VARIABILITY CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH PROBABILITY OF DECREASING AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...RESULTS IN TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO EXTEND THE AREAL
DELINEATION. THEREAFTER...INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE SPREAD
IN MODEL DATA CONCERNING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN DEVELOPMENTS BECOMES
MUCH TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

..KERR.. 10/10/2012

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 100730
SWODY3
SPC AC 100729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN BRANCH OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL
EXTEND IN A BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC BELT FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
ACROSS CANADA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
BUT A SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW WITHIN A REMNANT WEAKER BRANCH TO THE
SOUTH IS STILL FORECAST TO FINALLY ACCELERATE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A PROMINENT
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS IT DOES...IT
APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE
LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHICH PROBABLY WILL COMMENCE AS EARLY
AS FRIDAY NIGHT.

A RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A COLD SURFACE
HIGH CENTER...OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MAY INITIALLY LIMIT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE REGION. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL WEAKEN BY
LATE IN THE DAY...AS THE HIGH CENTER REDEVELOPS EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SHALLOW STABLE SURFACE
BASED LAYER MAY LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
UNTIL LATE FRIDAY EVENING...BUT EVENTUALLY 60F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AS A
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET STRENGTHENS FROM 30-50+ KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PLAINS.

...PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A CYCLONIC 70-90 KT 500 MB JET STREAK
EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT DOES APPEAR
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE HANDLE...NEAR THE REMNANT
SURFACE FRONT AND A DEVELOPING LEE SURFACE TROUGH/DRY LINE. THIS
MAY INCLUDE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...AS MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
1000 J/KG...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR.

SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...
WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
AT LEAST PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...IN
RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND STRENGTHENING
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. LARGE HAIL MAY BE
THE MOST PROMINENT SEVERE THREAT...BUT THE RISK FOR TORNADOES MAY
ACCOMPANY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY.

..KERR.. 10/10/2012

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KGRR [100554]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 100554
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
154 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 AM SLEET CHARLOTTE 42.56N 84.84W
10/10/2012 E0.00 INCH EATON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

A LITTLE BIT OF SLEET IS MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN.


&&

$$

MEADE

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 100503
SWODY2
SPC AC 100501

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG ZONAL BELT OF FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS THE MID LATITUDE
PACIFIC APPEARS LIKELY TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
DURING THIS PERIOD. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT AN IMPULSE
EMERGING FROM THIS STREAM WILL SPLIT OFF INTO A LINGERING WEAKER
STREAM CURVING CYCLONICALLY INTO CALIFORNIA. AS THIS OCCURS...A
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT CLOSED LOW...EXPECTED NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COASTAL AREAS AT 12Z THURSDAY...IS FORECAST TO FINALLY TURN INLAND.
THIS LATTER FEATURE MAY SLOWLY ACCELERATE A BIT NORTH OF EAST...INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SAME TIME...WITHIN A SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLIFIED NORTHERN
STREAM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS PARTS OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER COLD
INTRUSION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD...REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUS FRONT
MAY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU.
CONSOLIDATION OF THESE BAROCLINIC ZONES IS EXPECTED ROUGHLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES AROUND THE RIDGE...ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO AND ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND WARM ADVECTION
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...AND ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY BECOME STEEP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MODEST CAPE...AND
SOME POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LOW/MID-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR PROBABLY WILL REMAIN A BIT MARGINAL FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES...PARTICULARLY WITH THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO FORM ABOVE A RELATIVELY
COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

...SOUTHERN PLATEAU...
MID-LEVEL COOLING AND STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
CLOSED LOW ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
DESTABILIZATION MAY REMAIN WEAK...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT MAY
BE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR FAVORABLE
FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...AS A CYCLONIC 70-90 KT 500 MB JET STREAK
NOSES INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA. ONE OR TWO SUPERCELLS MAY NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION...PERHAPS WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR A
TORNADO.

..KERR.. 10/10/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 100447
SWODY1
SPC AC 100445

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRACK EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. BETWEEN THIS FEATURE
AND A W/E-ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...MODERATE/GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WILL COVER THE SERN STATES.
FARTHER WEST...A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX NWWD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT
BASIN...WHILE A CLOSED LOW TRACKS SSEWD OFF THE CA COAST BEFORE
EVENTUALLY NEARING THE COASTLINE LATE TONIGHT.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGH...THE ERN SEGMENT
OF A FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE WRN SEGMENT OF THE SAME
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN STATES AND SRN
PLAINS DURING THE DAY BEFORE ADVANCING NWD WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE
PLAINS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

...CNTRL/ERN TX AND SWRN/W-CNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FRONT AND ALONG ANY NWD-ADVANCING SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES. INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT STORM COVERAGE/DEPTH. AS SUCH...SVR PROBABILITIES HAVE NOT
BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

...SWRN TX AND SERN NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
UPSLOPE FLOW N OF THE SFC FRONT MAY SUPPORT SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BENEATH WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP AMIDST MARGINAL INSTABILITY...ASCENT IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG/DEEP TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NWD-EXTENDING PLUME OF MODESTLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EMANATING FROM THE GULF OF CA. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE
E/SE OF THE CLOSED LOW MAY AID IN OCCASIONAL STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY SFC WINDS.
HOWEVER...BUOYANCY SHOULD BE VERY MEAGER IN THE ABSENCE OF RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIMITING ANY SVR THREAT.

...CNTRL CA COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACCOMPANYING THE MID-LEVEL LOW OVERLAY THE REGION. SMALL HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...THOUGH WEAK BUOYANCY SHOULD
MINIMIZE ANY SVR THREAT.

...ERN OK...SERN KS...AR...SRN MO LATE TONIGHT...
INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT
AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGER ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY...LIMITING THE THREAT FOR ANY ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SVR HAIL.

..COHEN/BROYLES.. 10/10/2012

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