SWODY1
SPC AC 250006
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0706 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2011
VALID 250100Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
CORRECTED FOR GRAMMAR
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITH SURFACE FRONT WILL EJECTED NEWD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...WITH SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY IN ITS WAKE. WARM ADVECTION IN THESE AREAS WILL LEAD TO SOME
LIFT AND MOISTENING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. TO THE SW...ONGOING STORMS OVER SERN AZ WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS INSTABILITY DECREASES.
...UPPER MS VALLEY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT AS LIFT
NEAR THE NOSE OF A 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS SERN
MN...ERN IA...MUCH OF SRN WI AND PERHAPS FAR NRN IL MAINLY IN THE
09-12Z PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR WEAK AND
HIGHLY ELEVATED STORMS WITH MU PARCELS ROOTED NEAR 700 MB. NONE OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SEVERE...BUT IT MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING.
...NERN STATES...
A BAND OF SHOWERS...SOME CONVECTIVE BUT WITH LITTLE LIGHTNING...WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NY/PA/NJ AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING. WEAKENING INSTABILITY NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN VERY LITTLE THREAT OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A ROGUE LIGHTNING STRIKE.
..JEWELL.. 10/25/2011
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