SWODY2
SPC AC 241711
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2011
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID MS VALLEY...
CENTRAL PLAINS SFC CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR EWD AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS LARGE SCALE FORCING OVERSPREADS THE MID MS/OH VALLEY
REGION. STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE
FOCUSED ACROSS MN/WI WHICH SHOULD DRIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SRN GREAT LAKES. MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE
ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL
IL/MO WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND FRONTAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHEN MUCAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT. EVEN SO
IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL STRUGGLE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE
TSTMS. ATTM IT APPEARS 500-1000 J/KG CAPE COULD RESULT IN A FEW
ROBUST STORMS CAPABLE OF GENERATING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS.
...SWRN U.S...
MUCH COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL ROCKIES
AS HEIGHTS FALL WITHIN THE BASE OF DIGGING WRN U.S. TROUGH.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EASILY DEVELOP WITHIN FAVORABLE SWLY
FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SRN UT/SWRN CO
INTO PORTIONS OF NERN AZ/NWRN NM.
..DARROW.. 10/24/2011
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