SWODY1
SPC AC 241620
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2011
VALID 241630Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...OH VLY EWD INTO THE NERN STATES...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST NEEDED. CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS
WILL CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM FROM THE OH VLY INTO THE NERN STATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MUCAPES WILL REMAIN LOW...BUT DEEP LAYER WLY
FLOW AOA 30 KTS AND COLD TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES MAY YIELD
BRIEF...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL.
...UPR MS VLY...
LOW/MID-LVL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS SWLY
LLJ OF 50+ KTS BECOMES FOCUSED ACROSS THE REGION. PLUME OF STEEP
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES JUXTAPOSED WITH INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING ELEVATED CAPE. ISOLD LIGHTNING MAY OCCUR WITH
INCREASING CONVECTION IN THE 09-12Z RANGE...BUT HIGHER TSTM
PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED JUST BEYOND THE FCST PD.
...SE AZ/SW NM...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 0.75 INCH CONTINUE TO BE
TRANSPORTED NWD AHEAD OF THE MID-LVL WAVE OFF THE SRN CA COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST WEAK BUOYANCY FOR ISOLD CB/TSTMS OVER
THE HIGHER SE AZ/SW NM TERRAIN THIS AFTN/EVE.
..RACY/LEITMAN.. 10/24/2011
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