Friday, May 11, 2007

KGRR [112149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 112149
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
548 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0544 PM HAIL BATTLE CREEK 42.30N 85.23W
05/11/2007 E0.50 INCH CALHOUN MI EMERGENCY MNGR

ALSO MEASURED 22 MPH WIND.


&&

$$

TJT

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KMOB [112145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 112145
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
445 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

422 PM HAIL THEODORE
05/11/2007 NICKEL SIZE MOBILE AL PUBLIC

&&

$$

WERNER

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KLIX [112144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 112144
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
443 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM HAIL 3 S POPLARVILLE 30.79N 89.53W
05/11/2007 E1.75 INCH PEARL RIVER MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFF DEPUTIES REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL FALLING AT
MILE MARKER 24 ON INTERSTATE 59.


&&

$$

92/JSS

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KMOB [112142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 112142
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
442 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

410 PM HAIL MOBILE
05/11/2007 QUARTER SIZE MOBILE AL PUBLIC

417 PM HAIL MOBILE
05/11/2007 GOLFBALL SIZE MOBILE AL PUBLIC

&&

$$

WERNER

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KGRR [112138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 112138
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
538 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM HAIL 3 W BANFIELD 42.47N 85.34W
05/11/2007 E0.25 INCH BARRY MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0528 PM HAIL 1 NW BANFIELD 42.47N 85.30W
05/11/2007 E0.25 INCH BARRY MI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BEACHLER

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KJAN [112126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 112126
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
426 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM HAIL ARCHIE 31.58N 91.97W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH CATAHOULA LA PUBLIC

REPORTED BY GAS STATION.


&&

$$

GERARD

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KTSA [112125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 112125
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
425 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM HAIL DEPEW 35.80N 96.51W
05/11/2007 E0.75 INCH CREEK OK LAW ENFORCEMENT

0406 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 S GRAVETTE 36.36N 94.45W
05/11/2007 BENTON AR LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINES DOWN...3 OR 4 TELEPHONE POLES SNAPPED ON
HIGHWAY 59 BETWEEN DECATUR AND GRAVETTE.


&&

$$

NMK

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KLIX [112119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 112119
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
419 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0416 PM HAIL 5 NNE PICAYUNE 30.60N 89.65W
05/11/2007 E1.00 INCH PEARL RIVER MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

QUARTER INCH HAIL OBSERVED IN CARRIERE NEAR ANCHOR LAKE
AND BUOY ROADS.


&&

$$

11

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KLIX [112107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 112107
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
407 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM HAIL GLOSTER 31.19N 91.02W
05/11/2007 E1.00 INCH AMITE MS BROADCAST MEDIA

QUARTER SIZE HAIL FOR 15 MINUTES IN THE TOWN OF GLOSTER.


&&

$$

RSW

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KGSP [112106]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 112106
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
506 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0456 PM HAIL 8 NNW BREVARD 35.34N 82.78W
05/11/2007 E0.75 INCH TRANSYLVANIA NC PARK/FOREST SRVC


&&

$$

MCAVOY

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0775

ACUS11 KWNS 112049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112049
SDZ000-112145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND SWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112049Z - 112145Z

WRN AND SWRN SD ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF
STORMS CAN INITIATE...STORM MODE WILL LIKELY BE A SUPERCELL OR TWO
WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. DUE TO EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE...A WW WILL PROBABLY
NOT BE NECESSARY.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
NERN WY SEWD THROUGH SWRN SD INTO N CNTRL NEB. SURFACE HEATING IS
RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY N OF FRONT WHERE DEWPOINTS
REMAIN IN THE 50S. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
RESULTED IN MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
TOWERING CUMULUS INCREASING OVER THE BLACK HILLS...AND AN ISOLATED
STORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP IN THIS REGION AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. ON THE LARGER SCALE...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS SD
ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE... AND THIS COULD SERVE AS A
POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
IF STORMS DEVELOP...DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT WOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

.DIAL.. 05/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...

43240230 43750369 44400388 44210251 43740170

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KBMX [112040]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 112040
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
340 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HAIL 5 N SYCAMORE 33.32N 86.20W
05/11/2007 E0.25 INCH TALLADEGA AL EMERGENCY MNGR

PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN WINTERBORO


&&

$$

JRA

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KMEG [112035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KMEG 112035
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
335 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0120 PM HAIL 4 NW DARDEN 35.67N 88.28W
05/11/2007 M0.88 INCH HENDERSON TN TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL BETWEEN NICKEL AND QUARTER SIZE...ALSO LARGE TREE
LIMBS DOWN.

0120 PM HAIL 2 W POCAHONTAS 35.05N 88.85W
05/11/2007 E0.75 INCH HARDEMAN TN PUBLIC


&&

$$

TAB

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KLIX [112033]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 112033
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
333 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0331 PM HAIL KILN 30.42N 89.43W
05/11/2007 E1.25 INCH HANCOCK MS EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORT FROM HANCOCK COUNTY EOC.


&&

$$

RSW

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KMOB [112033]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 112033 CCA
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
330 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

315 PM HAIL MCHENRY
05/11/2007 NICKEL SIZE STONE MS EMERGENCY MGR

319 PM HAIL NEAR BARRINEAU PARK
05/11/2007 NICKEL SIZE ESCAMBIA FL NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

GARMON

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KMOB [112033]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 112033 CCA
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
330 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

315 PM HAIL MCHENRY
05/11/2007 NICKEL SIZE MONROE MS EMERGENCY MGR

319 PM HAIL NEAR BARRINEAU PARK
05/11/2007 NICKEL SIZE ESCAMBIA FL NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

GARMON

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KPAH [112033]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 112033
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
333 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HAIL MADISONVILLE 37.34N 87.51W
05/11/2007 M0.88 INCH HOPKINS KY EMERGENCY MNGR

NICKLE SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON NORTH SIDE OF COMMUNITY.


&&

$$

SMITTY

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KMOB [112031]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMOB 112031
LSRMOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
330 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

315 PM HAIL MCHENRY
05/11/2007 NICKEL SIZE MONROE AL EMERGENCY MGR

319 PM HAIL NEAR BARRINEAU PARK
05/11/2007 NICKEL SIZE ESCAMBIA FL NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

GARMON

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KRAH [112020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KRAH 112020
LSRRAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
420 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0514 PM TSTM WND DMG OXFORD 36.31N 78.59W
05/09/2007 GRANVILLE NC EMERGENCY MNGR

DELAYED REPORT. SEVERAL WINDOWS BLOWN OUT ALONG WITH
MINOR ROOF DAMAGE TO A BUSINESS IN DOWNTOWN OXFORD.


&&

$$

ORROCK

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KLIX [112010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 112010
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
310 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0303 PM HAIL 8 W GULFPORT 30.39N 89.20W
05/11/2007 E1.75 INCH HARRISON MS TRAINED SPOTTER

GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON KILN-DELISLE ROAD. REPORT
RELAYED BY WLOX RADIO STATION.


&&

$$

RSW

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 112000
SWODY1
SPC AC 111958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SRN APPALACHIANS WWD TO SRN PLAINS...
DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST AIR
MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ STRETCHING FROM THE TN/LOWER OH
VALLEYS SWWD TO THE SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ANY REMAINING
INHIBITION AND RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. ASCENT AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD INTO LOWER OH VALLEY AND ALSO ALONG
THE PERIPHERIES OF A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL LOWS/MCV/S ALONG THE UPPER
TX COAST AND LOWER TN VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GREATER
CONCENTRATIONS OF TSTM CLUSTERS. HOWEVER...OVERALL WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND WEAK LAPSE RATES/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL TEND TO LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF
SEVERE WEATHER. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE AIR MASS
STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING.

..NRN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
ASIDE FROM ONGOING CUMULUS/ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF
THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE SWRN STATES NWD TO PARTS OF WY/MT AND
THE BLACK HILLS...UPPER RIDGE IS TENDING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ARE
INDICATING A DEVELOPING AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM WRN SD
WNWWD TO SRN MT WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S AND LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED TSTMS APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SRN MT/FAR
NRN WY AROUND 00Z AS ASCENT AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE
APPROACHES THIS REGION FROM THE NRN GREAT BASIN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN OVERALL
STORM COVERAGE MAINTAINS LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
ERN SD THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PERIOD AS WAA
INCREASES ALONG THE NOSE OF A SSWLY LLJ EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FROM
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL SD. WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WITH THIS OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY.

.PETERS.. 05/11/2007

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KGSP [111951]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KGSP 111951
LSRGSP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
351 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0342 PM HAIL HIGHLANDS 35.05N 83.20W
05/11/2007 E0.75 INCH MACON NC COUNTY OFFICIAL

MACON COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED PENNY SIZED HAIL OCCURRED
IN HIGHLANDS. HIGH WIND ALSO REPORTED BUT NO SPECIFICS.


&&

$$

OUTLAW

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KMEG [111933]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 111933
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
232 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0120 PM HAIL 4 NW DARDEN 35.67N 88.28W
05/11/2007 M0.88 INCH HENDERSON TN TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL BETWEEN NICKEL AND QUARTER SIZE...ALSO LARGE TREE
LIMBS DOWN.


&&

$$

TAB

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KHUN [111920]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 111920
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
220 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0205 PM TSTM WND DMG ATHENS 34.80N 86.97W
05/11/2007 LIMESTONE AL BROADCAST MEDIA

RELAYED FROM BROADCAST MEDIA...SPOTTER REPORTS WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 55 MPH AND TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN IN ATHENS.

0210 PM HAIL COLLINSVILLE 34.27N 85.86W
05/11/2007 E0.25 INCH DEKALB AL EMERGENCY MNGR

STATE EMA OFFICIAL REPORTS PEA SIZED HAIL ALONG I-59 IN
COLLINSVILLE.


&&

$$

DL

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KHUN [111904]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 111904
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
204 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HAIL ATHENS 34.80N 86.97W
05/11/2007 E0.25 INCH LIMESTONE AL BROADCAST MEDIA

BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED REPORT OF PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS ESTIMATED TO NEAR 50 MPH AT US 31 AND US 72 IN
ATHENS.


&&

$$

DL

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KHUN [111833]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 111833
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
133 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 PM HAIL 5 N MADISON 34.77N 86.75W
05/11/2007 E0.50 INCH MADISON AL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY A VOLUNTEER FIREMAN IN
THE MONROVIA COMMUNITY


&&

$$

DL

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KALY [111745]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KALY 111745
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HAIL CAIRO 42.31N 74.01W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH GREENE NY TRAINED SPOTTER

0209 PM HAIL CARLISLE 42.76N 74.45W
05/10/2007 E1.00 INCH SCHOHARIE NY COUNTY OFFICIAL

NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE

0210 PM HAIL GALLUPVILLE 42.66N 74.23W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH SCHOHARIE NY TRAINED SPOTTER

0255 PM HAIL LONG LAKE 43.97N 74.42W
05/10/2007 E1.50 INCH HAMILTON NY POST OFFICE

0805 PM HAIL ARLINGTON 43.07N 73.15W
05/10/2007 E1.00 INCH BENNINGTON VT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS


&&
UPDATED FOR ARLINGTON VT HAIL REPORT.
$$

OKEEFE

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 111732
SWODY2
SPC AC 111731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES/PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY...AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD
FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS STATES REACHING THE LOWER MO TO LOWER
TN RIVER VALLEYS BY 12Z SUNDAY.

..NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
A PACIFIC TROUGH NOW CENTERED AT 40N 133W PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NW DURING DAY 2...WITH A
LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE NRN CA COAST...
PRECEDING THE LARGER TROUGH INLAND. THIS LEAD TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS AND SHOULD REACH ND/
CANADIAN BORDER REGION BY LATE DAY 2.

A SELY LOW LEVEL WIND SHOULD REMAIN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS AS THE LEAD MID LEVEL
IMPULSE RESULTS IN WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
SHIFT EWD INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE OF
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS ERN MT...A CONTINUED
STREAM OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT ZONE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR THE
LIKELIHOOD OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER MUCH
OF MT.

LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM
CENTRAL ID TO NORTH CENTRAL MT COMBINED WITH ASCENT AHEAD OF LEAD
IMPULSE SPREADING ENEWD OVER THE NRN ROCKIES DURING PEAK HEATING ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE RESULTING IN
THE THREAT FOR HAIL GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. INVERTED-V
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALSO INDICATE LIKELIHOOD FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. ANY STORMS THAT CAN MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONTO THE
ADJACENT PLAINS OF MT WILL ALSO HAVE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS
THEY MOVE EWD INTO SELY INFLOW OF GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT EWD EXTENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AS
ACTIVITY SPREADS E TOWARD ERN MT/DAKOTAS AFTER 13/00Z.

..SD/MID MO VALLEY...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY DURING MOST OF
DAY 2 PERIOD FROM SRN SD AND THEN SEWD TO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY
BEFORE MOVING NWD TO THE SD/ND BORDER AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EWD INTO
WRN DAKOTAS SATURDAY NIGHT. DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING...AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS E ON SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A STRONG CAP AND
LIKELY PRECLUDE AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG SRN
EXTENT OF STRONGER WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
WOULD SUPPORT A SUPERCELL AND SEVERE THREAT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MN AS NOCTURNAL SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS AND
VEERS OVERNIGHT.

..MID ATLANTIC...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG ND/CANADIAN BORDER... IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
ON SATURDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE NERN STATES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF VA TO
DELMARVA...NRN EXTENT OF HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES/INSTABILITY REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. IN ADDITION...WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR MORE ROBUST
UPDRAFTS. A WEAKER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...NOW LOCATED ALONG MO/IA
BORDER...SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ASCENT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
THUS...GIVEN AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..CAROLINAS WSWWD TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO FL...
WEAK ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE MOVING SWD THROUGH THIS REGION
WILL BE A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES SWD INTO THE GULF BASIN. MOIST AIR MASS
WILL AID IN THE TSTM FORMATION...BUT WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. A
LARGE AREA OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS
THIS REGION DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE PULSE-TYPE STORMS.
ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS FL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE ERN PENINSULA WHERE ERN SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

.PETERS.. 05/11/2007

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KSGF [111717]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KSGF 111717
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1217 PM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 W ELDON 38.35N 92.62W
05/10/2007 MILLER MO EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING AT INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 52 AND Y
HIGHWAY

0150 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N VIENNA 38.22N 91.95W
05/10/2007 M1.63 INCH MARIES MO CO-OP OBSERVER

1.63 INCHES IN 45 MINUTES.

0220 PM FLOOD 4 S NEVADA 37.78N 94.35W
05/10/2007 VERNON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

INTERSECTION OF BB AND STOCKADE REMAINS CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING.

0223 PM FLOOD FORT SCOTT 37.84N 94.71W
05/10/2007 BOURBON KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

LITTLE OSAGE RIVER CONTINUES TO FLOW OVER 7 HIGHWAY
BETWEEN HIGHWAY 31 AND HARDING ROAD. ROAD STILL CLOSED.

0223 PM FLOOD XENIA 38.00N 94.99W
05/10/2007 BOURBON KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

PORTIONS OF 65 HIGHWAY NEAR TOWN OF XENIA STILL CLOSED
DUE TO WATER OVER ROADWAY.

0228 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 S DIXON 37.96N 92.09W
05/10/2007 PULASKI MO TRAINED SPOTTER

5 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING OVER O HIGHWAY AT JONES CREEK.

0230 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 S EDGAR SPRINGS 37.69N 91.87W
05/10/2007 PHELPS MO PUBLIC

WATER ACROSS HIGHWAY 63 AT H HIGHWAY.

0235 PM FLASH FLOOD EDGAR SPRINGS 37.70N 91.87W
05/10/2007 PHELPS MO POST OFFICE

WATER ACROSS HIGHWAY 63. THE COUNTY ROAD DEPARTMENT
ESTIMATED 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN ONE HOUR.

0300 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 NW VIENNA 38.22N 91.99W
05/10/2007 MARIES MO CO-OP OBSERVER

A FEW LOW WATER CROSSINGS ALONG THE BIG MARIES CREEK WERE
FLOODED...LASTING 2-3 HOURS.

0305 PM FLASH FLOOD CAMDENTON 38.01N 92.74W
05/10/2007 CAMDEN MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL LOW WATER CROSSINGS THROUGHOUT CAMDEN COUNTY HAVE
WATER FLOWING OVER THEM. A FEW OF THE LOW WATER CROSSINGS
ARE BLOCKED BY DEBRIS.

0312 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 10 SW ANDERSON 36.55N 94.57W
05/10/2007 MCDONALD MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

0410 PM HAIL 4 S JERICO SPRINGS 37.56N 94.01W
05/10/2007 E0.88 INCH DADE MO CO-OP OBSERVER

DIME TO NICKLE HAIL ALONG WITH 0.80 INCHES OF RAIN.

0418 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 SW GRAVOIS MILLS 38.26N 92.89W
05/10/2007 MORGAN MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

PROCTOR AND CODY ROADS NEAR IVY BEND WERE FLOODED AND
IMPASSABLE. LITTLE PROCTOR CREEK FIVE MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GRAVOIS MILLS WHICH IS NORMALLY DRY ROSE 4 TO 6 FEET IN
20 MINUTES.

0430 PM FLASH FLOOD SHERMAN 37.26N 95.06W
05/10/2007 CHEROKEE KS EMERGENCY MNGR

FLOODING OF COUNTY ROADS IN NORTHWEST CHEROKEE COUNTY
BETWEEN SHERMAN AND SCAMMON.

0450 PM FLASH FLOOD PITTSBURG 37.41N 94.70W
05/10/2007 CRAWFORD KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROADS FLOODED IN PITTSBURG AREA INCLUDING AT INTERSECTION
OF COUNTY ROADS 560 AND 210.

0512 PM FLASH FLOOD NEOSHO 36.87N 94.37W
05/10/2007 NEWTON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROUTE D CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER. MCCORD STREET IN TOWN
CLOSED AS WELL.

0520 PM FLASH FLOOD NEOSHO 36.87N 94.37W
05/10/2007 NEWTON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLASH FLOODING OCCURING IN NEOSHO INCLUDING ON HIGHWAY D
NEAR CROWDER COLLEGE.

0545 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 W MINDENMINES 37.47N 94.61W
05/10/2007 BARTON MO TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER UP TO ROAD SURFACE ON BOTH SIDES OF HWY 160. ALL
DIRT ROADS OFF HWY 160 FLOODED

0610 PM FLASH FLOOD PLEASANT HOPE 37.46N 93.27W
05/10/2007 POLK MO AMATEUR RADIO

4 INCHES OF FLOODING ON HWY H NEAR PLEASANT HOPE.

0610 PM FLASH FLOOD MORRISVILLE 37.48N 93.43W
05/10/2007 POLK MO AMATEUR RADIO

HIGHWAY 215 NEAR MORRISVILLE FLOODED WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES
OF WATER.

0610 PM FLASH FLOOD STOTTS CITY 37.10N 93.95W
05/10/2007 LAWRENCE MO EMERGENCY MNGR

HIGHWAY 97 CLOSED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING

0620 PM HAIL SPRINGFIELD 37.20N 93.29W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH GREENE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL AT THE INTERSECTION OF KEARNEY
AND FULBRIGHT.

0620 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 NE WEAUBLEAU 37.92N 93.50W
05/10/2007 HICKORY MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER FLOWING OVER SOME ROADWAYS IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF
HICKORY COUNTY.

0621 PM FLASH FLOOD SPRINGFIELD 37.20N 93.29W
05/10/2007 GREENE MO PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED 10 TO 12 INCHES OF WATER OVER ROADS IN
DOWNTOWN SPRINGFIELD.

0630 PM FLASH FLOOD SPRINGFIELD 37.20N 93.29W
05/10/2007 GREENE MO TRAINED SPOTTER

FLASH FLOODING ALONG 1400 BLOCK OF NORTH FRISCO IN
SPRINGFIELD

0645 PM FLASH FLOOD LAMAR 37.49N 94.28W
05/10/2007 BARTON MO CO-OP OBSERVER

COOP OBSERVER IN LAMAR REPORTS 0.85 INCHES OF RAIN. MUDDY
CREEK IN LAMAR OVERFLOWING BANKS

0646 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE SPRINGFIELD 37.21N 93.27W
05/10/2007 E1.55 INCH GREENE MO PUBLIC

SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 ON KERNY STREET IN NORTHERN PART
OF TOWN. ONE HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.

0710 PM FLASH FLOOD PLEASANT HOPE 37.46N 93.27W
05/10/2007 POLK MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY H SOUTH OF PLEASANT HOPE FLOODED. ONE HOUSE AND
MULTIPLE TRAILER HOUSES FLOODED.

0724 PM HEAVY RAIN CARTHAGE 37.18N 94.31W
05/10/2007 M1.19 INCH JASPER MO CO-OP OBSERVER

AS OF 7 PM.

0730 PM FLASH FLOOD 7 S MARSHFIELD 37.24N 92.91W
05/10/2007 WEBSTER MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAYS A AND FF FLOODED.

0845 PM FLASH FLOOD KISSEE MILLS 36.68N 93.05W
05/10/2007 TANEY MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

HIGHWAY 160 EAST OF KISSEE MILLS AND BARKER HOLE ROAD
BOTH FLOODED.

0905 PM FLASH FLOOD SPRINGFIELD 37.20N 93.29W
05/10/2007 GREENE MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

INTERSECTIONS OF DIVISION AND SHERMAN AS WELL AS MOUNT
VERNON AND NEW WERE FLOODED. 1800 WEST KEARNEY ALSO
FLOODED.

1200 AM FLASH FLOOD 7 W AVA 36.95N 92.79W
05/11/2007 DOUGLAS MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROUTE Y LOW WATER CROSSING OVER THE COWSKIN CREEK REMAINS
FLOODED. CONDITIONS IMPROVING.


&&

$$

HATCH

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KJAN [111654]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KJAN 111654
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1154 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM HAIL 1 NE WALTHALL 33.62N 89.26W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH WEBSTER MS PUBLIC

0400 PM HAIL 12 E GRENADA 33.78N 89.60W
05/10/2007 E0.50 INCH GRENADA MS PUBLIC

DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY QUICK STOP.

0425 PM HAIL 6 E GRENADA 33.78N 89.71W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH GRENADA MS PUBLIC

DIME TO PENNY SIZED HAIL FROM PUBLIC REPORTS.

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 N GOODMAN 33.03N 89.91W
05/10/2007 HOLMES MS PUBLIC

A FEW TREES AND SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN NEAR THE
HOLMES CO STATE PARK. THE TREES WERE DOWN OFF BOWLING
GREEN RD.

0507 PM FLASH FLOOD GRENADA 33.78N 89.81W
05/10/2007 GRENADA MS EMERGENCY MNGR

GETTING NUMEROUS CALLS ABOUT FLOODING IN THE CITY TO
GRENADA EMA.

0515 PM FLASH FLOOD 6 E GRENADA 33.78N 89.71W
05/10/2007 GRENADA MS PUBLIC

ROADS FLOODED AROUND HWY 8 SOUTH OF HUGH WHITE STATE
PARK.

0542 PM HAIL 1 S LAKE VILLAGE 33.31N 91.28W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH CHICOT AR EMERGENCY MNGR

IN ADDITION, TWO TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN NEAR LAKE
CHICOT.

0610 PM HAIL SUNFLOWER 33.55N 90.54W
05/10/2007 E0.88 INCH SUNFLOWER MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0610 PM HAIL MOORHEAD 33.45N 90.51W
05/10/2007 E0.88 INCH SUNFLOWER MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0611 PM TSTM WND DMG LEXINGTON 33.12N 90.05W
05/10/2007 HOLMES MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE TREE REPORTED DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF HWY 17 AND
NEWPORT ROAD.

0736 PM HAIL BASTROP 32.77N 91.91W
05/10/2007 E1.25 INCH MOREHOUSE LA NWS EMPLOYEE

HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL COVERING THE RAOD IN BASTROP.
REPORTED BY A STORM SPOTTER TO WFO SHV. THANKS TO SHV FOR
THE RELAY.


&&

$$

CME

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KJAN [111653]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KJAN 111653
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1153 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HAIL 1 N NORTH CROSSETT 33.18N 91.94W
05/09/2007 E1.00 INCH ASHLEY AR FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

QUARTER SIZED HAIL FELL ALONG WITH A FEW TREES DOWN. ONE
TREE FELL ON A HOUSE.


&&

$$

CME

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111628
SWODY1
SPC AC 111626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WITH RIDGING BUILDING NWD OVER THE ROCKIES.
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW
AND THEN SHIFT EWD ATOP THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..NRN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
NNELY SURFACE FLOW IN WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER LA WILL CONTINUE TO
HINDER GULF MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY. THIS
WILL INHIBIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND RESULTANT SEVERE THREAT NEAR
THE FAST MOVING NRN STREAM IMPULSES...DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG
SHEAR IN PLACE. DEEP MIXING AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ALLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF SRN MT INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM FARTHER EAST NEAR
WEAK SURFACE LOW/FRONT INTO SD BY THE EARLY EVENING. THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN ALONG PERIPHERY OF STRONGER WLY FLOW ALOFT AND SHOULD HAVE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION WITH ENSUING
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
INITIATION AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WARRANTS ONLY LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ATTM. LATER TONIGHT...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
INCREASING SSWLY LLJ ACROSS THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT INCREASE IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS N-NE OF SURFACE
FRONT INTO ERN SD/SWRN MN. HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER CORES LATE
TONIGHT...THOUGH MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AOB 1000 J/KG AND
RESULTANT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW.

..ERN TX/OZARKS INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...
AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD SUPPORT
LARGE AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CIN BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CLUSTERS/BANDS OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME NUMEROUS
AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THIS REGION...NEAR AND SOUTH OF A SLOW SWD MOVING
COLD FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.
HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO LIMIT SEVERITY OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION.

.EVANS/LEVIT.. 05/11/2007

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KMSO [111606]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 111606
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1006 AM MDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0351 PM HAIL AVON 46.60N 112.60W
05/10/2007 E1.25 INCH POWELL MT TRAINED SPOTTER

HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL REPORTED COVERING THE GROUND.

0440 PM HAIL 4 SE VICTOR 46.38N 114.09W
05/10/2007 M0.88 INCH RAVALLI MT TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED COVERING THE GROUND.


&&

$$

HENRY

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KSGF [111550]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 111550
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1050 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 S EDGAR SPRINGS 37.69N 91.87W
05/10/2007 PHELPS MO PUBLIC

WATER ACROSS HIGHWAY 63 AT H HIGHWAY.

0235 PM FLASH FLOOD EDGAR SPRINGS 37.70N 91.87W
05/10/2007 PHELPS MO POST OFFICE

WATER ACROSS HIGHWAY 63. THE COUNTY ROAD DEPARTMENT
ESTIMATED 2.50 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN ONE HOUR.


&&

$$

GHATCH

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KJAN [111545]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 111545
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1044 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM HAIL SUNFLOWER 33.55N 90.54W
05/10/2007 E0.88 INCH SUNFLOWER MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0610 PM HAIL MOORHEAD 33.45N 90.51W
05/10/2007 E0.88 INCH SUNFLOWER MS LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

HAMRICK

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KJAN [111530]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KJAN 111530
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM HAIL 1 NE WALTHALL 33.62N 89.26W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH WEBSTER MS PUBLIC

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 N GOODMAN 33.03N 89.91W
05/10/2007 HOLMES MS PUBLIC

A FEW TREES AND SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN NEAR THE
HOLMES CO STATE PARK. THE TREES WERE DOWN OFF BOWLING
GREEN RD.


&&

$$

CME

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KJAN [111525]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 111525
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1025 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 AM HAIL 1 NE WALTHALL 33.62N 89.26W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH WEBSTER MS PUBLIC

0500 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 N GOODMAN 33.03N 89.91W
05/10/2007 HOLMES MS PUBLIC

A FEW TREES AND SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN NEAR THE
HOLMES CO STATE PARK. THE TREES WERE DOWN OFF BOWLING
GREEN RD.


&&

$$

CME

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KSGF [111516]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 111516
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1016 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM HAIL 4 S JERICO SPRINGS 37.56N 94.01W
05/10/2007 E0.88 INCH DADE MO CO-OP OBSERVER

DIME TO NICKLE HAIL ALONG WITH 0.80 INCHES OF RAIN.

0300 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 NW VIENNA 38.22N 91.99W
05/10/2007 MARIES MO CO-OP OBSERVER

A FEW LOW WATER CROSSINGS ALONG THE BIG MARIES CREEK WERE
FLOODED...LASTING 2-3 HOURS.


&&

$$

GHATCH

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KJAN [111507]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 111507
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1007 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 AM HAIL 1 NE WALTHALL 33.62N 89.26W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH WEBSTER MS PUBLIC

0425 PM HAIL 6 E GRENADA 33.78N 89.71W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH GRENADA MS PUBLIC

DIME TO PENNY SIZED HAIL FROM PUBLIC REPORTS.

0515 PM FLASH FLOOD 6 E GRENADA 33.78N 89.71W
05/10/2007 GRENADA MS PUBLIC

ROADS FLOODED AROUND HWY 8 SOUTH OF HUGH WHITE STATE
PARK.


&&

$$

GERARD

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KJAN [111452]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 111452
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
952 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HAIL 12 E GRENADA 33.78N 89.60W
05/10/2007 E0.50 INCH GRENADA MS PUBLIC

DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY QUICK STOP.


&&

$$

GERARD

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KTFX [111354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTFX 111354
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
754 AM MDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM HAIL 12 W WHITEHALL 45.87N 112.35W
05/10/2007 M0.75 INCH JEFFERSON MT PUBLIC

HAM OPTR RPD PENNY SIZED HAIL. LITTLE RAIN/WIND. CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING

0125 PM HAIL 12 W WHITEHALL 45.87N 112.35W
05/10/2007 M1.00 INCH JEFFERSON MT PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZED HAIL WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. RPTD BY HAM
RADIO OPTR

0240 PM HAIL 5 S BOZEMAN 45.60N 111.04W
05/10/2007 E0.88 INCH GALLATIN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0340 PM HAIL HOLTER DAM 46.99N 112.01W
05/10/2007 E0.50 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT PUBLIC

0410 PM HAIL MONTANA CITY 46.54N 111.93W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH JEFFERSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0435 PM HAIL N CANYON CREEK 46.80N 112.26W
05/10/2007 M0.75 INCH LEWIS AND CLARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL SIZE 3/4 OF AN INCH OR LARGER. GROUND COVERED WITH
HAIL

0530 PM HAIL 1 N TRACY 47.42N 111.16W
05/10/2007 M1.00 INCH CASCADE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

1 INCH SIZED FAIL FELL. NEARLY 0.4 OF INCH OF RAINFALL

0700 PM TSTM WND GST 12 S ULM 47.26N 111.51W
05/10/2007 E0.00 MPH CASCADE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED 60 MPH. 3/4 INCH OF
RAIN IN 30 MINUES WITH PEA SIZED HAIL.

0712 PM HAIL 6 NNE CRAIG 47.15N 111.91W
05/10/2007 M1.00 INCH CASCADE MT FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

1 INCH HAIL COVERING THE GROUND AT DEARBORN.

0712 PM HAIL 9 SW CASCADE 47.18N 111.84W
05/10/2007 M0.75 INCH CASCADE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

3/4 INCH HAIL FELL OVER PREWETT CREEK. GROUND WHITE WITH
HAIL.

0730 PM TSTM WND GST 9 SE STOCKETT 47.26N 111.03W
05/10/2007 E65.00 MPH CASCADE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH. ALSO 1/2
INCH OF RAIN AND PEA SIZE HAIL.


&&
SUMMARY OF ALL REPORTED EVENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNON AND EVENING OF THURSDAY, MAY 10TH 2007.
$$

MPJ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 111258
SWODY1
SPC AC 111255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
LATE SPRING PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE LWR 48. RCKYS RIDGE
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY N/NE THIS PERIOD AS SE TX UPR LOW
WEAKENS AND SETTLES E/SE INTO THE NRN GULF. UPR IMPULSE NOW OFF NRN
CA SHOULD CONTINUE NE TO THE ORE CST EARLY SATURDAY. FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM...WEAK DISTURBANCES NOW OVER ERN MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS
EXPECTED TO PHASE OVER THE UPR MS VLY AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE NRN
RCKYS. STILL FARTHER EAST...WEAK POSITIVE TILT TROUGH WILL EXIT NEW
ENGLAND LATER TODAY...LEAVING A TRAILING ARC OF VORTICITY EXTENDING
W/SE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OH VLY INTO THE CNTRL PLNS.

AT LWR LEVELS...FEATURES WILL BR WEAK....WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLNS ACROSS THE LWR GRT LKS INTO SRN QUEBEC.
THE WRN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO EDGE NE AS A WARM FRONT
IN MT...WHILE THE ERN PORTION CONTINUES SE AS A COLD FRONT INTO
UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WHILE ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
FOR DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE LWR 48... MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL NOT BE HIGH BY MID-MAY STANDARDS.

..LWR MS VLY/OZARKS/OK...
HEATING BENEATH LINGERING COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING UPR
LOW WILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM E TX INTO THE LWR MS VLY.
A SEPARATE AREA OF STORMS MAY FOCUS INVOF TRAILING VORTICITY LOBE
AND WEAK SFC FRONT ACROSS THE MO OZARKS INTO OK. WHILE SHEAR WILL
BE WEAK...THERMODYNAMIC SETUP WILL SUPPORT SCTD BANDS/CLUSTERS OF
PULSE SEVERE STORMS WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND/HAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..INTERIOR NW/NRN ROCKIES...
BELT OF MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON FRINGE OF RCKYS RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN 40+ KT SW TO WLY SHEAR ACROSS PARTS OF NRN ID/MT. WITH
LARGE SCALE ASCENT REMAINING WEAK...INITIATION WILL BE DRIVEN
PRIMARILY BY TERRAIN. GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

..SD/NRN NEB...
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX/JET STREAK AMPLIFYING E/SE TOWARD THE UPR MS VLY
WILL ENHANCE ASCENT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE
LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BOOST MUCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.
CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IN SD AND/OR ALONG LEE TROUGH
EXTENDING SW INTO WRN NEB MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE...THOSE THAT
DO FORM WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO BECOME SUSTAINED
AND POSSIBLY YIELD HAIL/LOCALLY-DAMAGING WIND.

.CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/11/2007

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KBRO [110852]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 110852
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
352 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 AM HAIL NW FALFURRIAS 27.22N 98.14W
05/11/2007 E0.25 INCH BROOKS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

A BROOKS COUNTY SHERIFFS DEPUTY REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL,
STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM THAT PASSED THROUGH THE CITY OF FALFURRIAS.


&&

$$

BMILLER

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 110830
SWOD48
SPC AC 110830

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

..THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON DAY4/MAY 14/...

..DISCUSSION...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS
TROUGH WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY REGION
BEFORE DIGGING ESEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY MID WEEK. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD FOCUS DEEP CONVECTION ALONG ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY DURING THE
DAY4 PERIOD. SHEAR PROFILES DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY SOUTH OF THIS
LATITUDE...THOUGH FLOW BECOMES MORE NWLY WHICH WILL RESULT IN
SUBSTANTIAL VEERING THROUGH THE PROFILE. IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST FOR SCATTERED SEVERE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...POSSIBLY AS FAR SW AS KS DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD. BEYOND
DAY4...CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ISSUES WILL
PROVE A BIT TOO UNPREDICTABLE FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT AT THIS
TIME.

.DARROW.. 05/11/2007

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KSGF [110825]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 110825
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 AM FLASH FLOOD 7 W AVA 36.95N 92.79W
05/11/2007 DOUGLAS MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

ROUTE Y LOW WATER CROSSING OVER THE COWSKIN CREEK REMAINS
FLOODED. CONDITIONS IMPROVING.


&&

$$

GAGAN

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 110719
SWODY3
SPC AC 110718

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OF MT
AND THE WRN DAKOTAS...

..UPPER MS VALLEY...

STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THE DAY3 PERIOD ACROSS
MN/WI AS UPPER RIDGE IS FLATTENED BY A FEW WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
AHEAD OF MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MT. MODELS ARE LIKELY
UNDERESTIMATING CAP DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AS FLOW VEERS
ALONG NE-SW ORIENTED SFC TROUGH OVER MN INTO SERN SD. LATEST
THINKING IS LLJ SHOULD AID CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OFF
AND ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. TIMING OF INITIATION WILL PROVE
DIFFICULT WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT. SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
THIS ACTIVITY BUT CONFIDENCE IN BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN
MN INTO SERN SD IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE LIKELY
PRESENCE OF A CAP...AND THE PROSPECT FOR RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG WIND SHIFT...CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES IF UPDRAFTS
CAN MANAGE TO ROOT INTO HIGHER INSTABILITY AIRMASS.

..NRN HIGH PLAINS...

RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE NOTED ACROSS SRN MT DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
MOVE NWRN U.S. TROUGH INTO WRN MT BY 14/00Z. HEIGHTS WILL FALL
ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AFTER DARK WHICH WILL PROVE BENEFICIAL IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS SRN MT SUGGEST ELY FLOW WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH NICE VEERING PROFILES EXPECTED ACROSS THE SERN
1/3RD OF THE STATE. IT APPEARS SFC DEW POINTS COULD EASILY APPROACH
50 F AS FAR WEST AS BIL...OR PERHAPS LVM AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EASILY
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT BY MID AFTERNOON...THEN
SPREAD ENEWD WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUSTAINING SUPERCELLS. IF MOISTURE DOES INDEED HOLD ACROSS THIS
REGION ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD BE NOTED IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. UPWARD EVOLVING SUPERCELL CLUSTERS MAY FORM AN
MCS BEFORE SPREADING INTO ERN MT/WRN ND AFTER DARK.

FARTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEB...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE
ALONG THE DRYLINE WHERE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROVE DIURNAL IN
NATURE...THOUGH CERTAINLY COULD PRODUCE SOME SEVERE. LATER OUTLOOKS
MAY NEED TO ADDRESS THE DRYLINE IF IT APPEARS A MORE CONCENTRATED
ZONE OF DEEP CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE.

.DARROW.. 05/11/2007

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KHGX [110710]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KHGX 110710
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
210 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 PM HAIL 2 NW SPRING VALLEY 29.81N 95.53W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

3/4 INCH HAIL PILING UP ON THE GROUND AT GESSNER AND
HAMMERLY.

0710 PM HAIL HOUSTON 29.77N 95.39W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH HARRIS TX PUBLIC

HAIL PILING ON GROUND IN NORTHWEST HOUSTON AT GESSNER AND
HAMMERLY

0715 PM HAIL 2 NW SPRING VALLEY 29.81N 95.53W
05/10/2007 E1.00 INCH HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

GESSNER AND KEMPWOOD.

0718 PM HAIL 3 SE JERSEY VILLAGE 29.86N 95.53W
05/10/2007 E0.50 INCH HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA TO MARBLE HAIL

0720 PM HAIL 3 NNE SPRING VALLEY 29.83N 95.48W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH HARRIS TX AMATEUR RADIO

3/4 INCH HAIL AT PINEMONT AND ANTOINE DR.

0755 PM HAIL THE WOODLANDS 30.16N 95.49W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH MONTGOMERY TX TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY HAIL IN THE WOODLANDS.

0800 PM HAIL 3 NW JERSEY VILLAGE 29.92N 95.60W
05/10/2007 E1.75 INCH HARRIS TX AMATEUR RADIO

HUFFMEISTER AND US-290.

0800 PM HAIL 1 N MEMORIAL 29.78N 95.51W
05/10/2007 E0.25 INCH HARRIS TX BROADCAST MEDIA

KHOU-CHANNEL 11 REPORTED GOLFBALL HAIL NEAR SPRING
BRANCH.

0800 PM HAIL HOUSTON 29.77N 95.39W
05/10/2007 E1.75 INCH HARRIS TX PUBLIC

NEAR HUFFMEISTER AND HWY290

0807 PM HAIL 5 NW SPRING 30.11N 95.44W
05/10/2007 E1.75 INCH MONTGOMERY TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

NEAR THE WOODLANDS

0807 PM HAIL THE WOODLANDS 30.16N 95.49W
05/10/2007 E1.75 INCH MONTGOMERY TX AMATEUR RADIO

GOLFBALL HAIL AT LAKE WOODLANDS DRIVE.

0810 PM HAIL 3 NNW JERSEY VILLAGE 29.93N 95.59W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

3/4 INCH HAIL AT JONES RD AND 1960.

0810 PM HAIL 1 NE SPRING 30.07N 95.37W
05/10/2007 E2.50 INCH HARRIS TX BROADCAST MEDIA

LEMON TO NEARLY BASEBALL SIZED HAIL FROM JUST NORTHEAST
OF SPRING INTO SOUTHWEST AREA OF THE WOODLANDS...FROM
KPRC.

0813 PM HAIL 2 SE THE WOODLANDS 30.14N 95.47W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH MONTGOMERY TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

DIME TO PENNY HAIL FALLING NEAR HIGHWAY 59.

0815 PM HAIL JERSEY VILLAGE 29.89N 95.57W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0815 PM HAIL JERSEY VILLAGE 29.89N 95.57W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY HAIL IN JERSEY VILLAGE.

0831 PM HAIL 9 W PORTER 30.10N 95.38W
05/10/2007 E1.75 INCH MONTGOMERY TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

NEAR BELLCHASE.

0840 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 E CYPRESS 29.97N 95.62W
05/10/2007 HARRIS TX AMATEUR RADIO

ROADS FLOODED OUT AND IMPASSABLE AT JONES AND GRANT RDS.

0845 PM TSTM WND GST 3 W BUSH-INTERCONTINENT 29.98N 95.39W
05/10/2007 E55.00 MPH HARRIS TX AMATEUR RADIO

ESTIMATED 55 MPH GUST AT RANKIN RD. AND I-45.

0850 PM HAIL 5 E ADDICKS 29.78N 95.56W
05/10/2007 M1.00 INCH HARRIS TX AMATEUR RADIO

I-10 AT KIRKWOOD.

0853 PM HAIL 2 W ADDICKS 29.78N 95.68W
05/10/2007 E0.25 INCH HARRIS TX AMATEUR RADIO

FRY ROAD SOUTH OF I-10.

0855 PM TSTM WND GST 1 NW SPRING VALLEY 29.80N 95.52W
05/10/2007 M68.00 MPH HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

68 MPH AT GESSNER AND HAMMERLY

0855 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 NW SPRING VALLEY 29.80N 95.52W
05/10/2007 HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

STREET FLOODING WITH 12 INCHES OF WATER OVER ROADS AND
IMPASSABLE.

0855 PM HAIL 1 NW SPRING VALLEY 29.80N 95.52W
05/10/2007 E0.75 INCH HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0901 PM HAIL 2 NNE ALIEF 29.74N 95.59W
05/10/2007 E1.00 INCH HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

KIRKWOOD AND BRIARFOREST.

0904 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 S ALDINE 29.87N 95.38W
05/10/2007 HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

STREETS FLOODED NEAR I-45 AND GULFBANK.

0910 PM TSTM WND DMG EDNA 28.97N 96.65W
05/10/2007 JACKSON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

GAS STATION AWNING BLOWN DOWN, MEDIUM SIZED TREES TOPPLED
AND LIMBS SNAPPED OFF.

0917 PM HAIL 6 SE ADDICKS 29.72N 95.57W
05/10/2007 E1.00 INCH HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

1 INCH HAIL COVERING THE GROUND AT KIRKWOOD AND BRIAR
FOREST DRIVE.

0920 PM HAIL 1 NNW ALIEF 29.72N 95.61W
05/10/2007 E1.00 INCH HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

DAIRY ASHFORD AND WESTPARK.

0920 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 SSE EDNA 28.89N 96.61W
05/10/2007 JACKSON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN IN LOLITA.

0934 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 S ALDINE 29.88N 95.38W
05/10/2007 HARRIS TX AMATEUR RADIO

NUMEROUS CARS-MORE THAN 100 CARS-TRAPPED OR FLOODED BY
FLOODED FEEDER ROADS ALONG I-45.

0935 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 NNW ALIEF 29.72N 95.61W
05/10/2007 HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

CARS STALLING IN FLOODED STREETS NEAR BRIAR FOREST AND
KIRKWOOD.

0955 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 W ALDINE 29.91N 95.41W
05/10/2007 HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

STREET FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE ALDINE BENDER NORTHBOUND

1026 PM HAIL 2 W ELLINGTON FIELD 29.61N 95.19W
05/10/2007 E0.50 INCH HARRIS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

MARBLE HAIL ALONG BELTWAY 8 FROM NEAR BEAMER TO BLACKHAWK
BLVD.

1030 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NNW SPRING VALLEY 29.81N 95.52W
05/10/2007 HARRIS TX BROADCAST MEDIA

STREETS FLOODED MEASURED RAINFALL 5.87 INCHES.

1035 PM HAIL 2 SW ELLINGTON FIELD 29.59N 95.18W
05/10/2007 E0.50 INCH HARRIS TX AMATEUR RADIO

SWATH OFMARBLE HAIL ACROSS BEAMER-BLACKHAWK-ELLINGTON
WAY.

1055 PM FLASH FLOOD SE SOUTHSIDE PLACE 29.71N 95.44W
05/10/2007 HARRIS TX BROADCAST MEDIA

STREETS FLOODED AND MEASURED 5.56 INCHES OF RAINFALL.


&&

$$

KP

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0774

ACUS11 KWNS 110613
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110613
TXZ000-110745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0774
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL TX INTO NRN PARTS OF THE LWR VLY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 110613Z - 110745Z

A SMALL SUPERCELL HAS BEEN MOVING SWD THROUGH ERN DUVAL COUNTY EARLY
THIS MORNING...LIKELY INGESTING AN OLD BOUNDARY THAT WAS ASSOCD WITH
LATE EVENING TSTMS THAT DISSIPATED VCNTY KCRP. CURRENT SUPERCELL IS
ALSO LIKELY LAYING DOWN A BOUNDARY THAT ACTIVITY UPSTREAM OVER SERN
LA SALLE COUNTY MAY LATCH ONTO.

VWP FROM BOTH CRP AND BRO SHOW AN EXCELLENT SUPERCELL PROFILE WITH
0-1KM SLY COMPONENT BENEATH SHARPLY VEERING MID-LEVEL WINDS TO NWLY
AT OVER 40-45 KTS. CELLS THAT DEVIATE RIGHT OF THE MEAN FLOW...ARE
LIKELY ACQUIRING 100-150 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH AND GIVEN THE MOIST
PROFILES IN PLACE...AN ISOLD TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL LARGE HAIL. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES
WILL BE BEFORE THE CELLS BEGIN TO INGEST A MORE MARITIME BOUNDARY
LAYER EAST CLOSER TO THE COAST. BUT...AREAS FROM ERN
WEBB...WRN/CNTRL DUVAL AND POSSIBLY BROOKS AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES MAY
SEE AN INCREASE IN SVR POTENTIAL THROUGH ABOUT 09Z.

.RACY.. 05/11/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

27139876 28249910 28179854 27229792 26689779 26549822
26719844

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 110554
SWODY2
SPC AC 110553

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES/PLAINS...

..NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...

LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ACROSS
THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS BEFORE TOTALLY SHUNTING EAST INTO THE
PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY HAVE MINIMAL INFLUENCE
ON DIURNAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EAST OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE PLAINS
OF MT...ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES FROM ERN OR...NEWD
INTO WRN MT. MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR NRN ROCKIES IS
NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...NOR SHOULD IT INCREASE MARKEDLY. INCREASED
ASCENT AND DEEP CONVERGENCE WILL HOWEVER MAINTAIN A ZONE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 0.75 WHICH WILL PROVE MORE
THAN ADEQUATE FOR DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WITHIN STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE...STORM ROTATION/ORGANIZATION IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. HAIL IS
THE GREATEST RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...INTENSE HEAT ACROSS SCNTRL MT...COUPLED WITH
WEAK/NEUTRAL FORCING...MAY RESULT IN A FEW LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS OF MT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
ROBUST UPDRAFTS MAY NOT ORGANIZE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN AFFECT OF
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO FLATTEN UPPER RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS...LLJ
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO ERN MT. ANY STORMS THAT
CAN MIGRATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO ERN MT WILL ENCOUNTER
INCREASINGLY MOIST PROFILES AND STRONGER SHEAR...MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN
SEVERE RISKS WITH SUPERCELLS...AND POSSIBLE BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES THAT
SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS OF MT TOWARD THE WRN DAKOTAS AFTER 00Z.

..SD/MID MO VALLEY...

UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE PLAINS SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT...INTENSE SFC HEATING WILL PROVE THE PRIMARY DAYTIME
MECHANISM FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
SRN SD...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS. ANOTHER AREA FOR POSSIBLE
STORM GENERATION WILL BE WITHIN WEAK WARM ADVECTION ZONE ALONG THE
MO RIVER OVER SERN SD INTO NWRN IA. AS LLJ INCREASES AFTER DARK
ELEVATED CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION
INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN. HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

..MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO CENTRAL GULF COAST...

PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY. UPPER SPEED MAX WILL
DIG SEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TOWARD VA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY...HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THIS REGION AS TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE NERN U.S. IT APPEARS SFC FRONT WILL SHARPEN ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...THEN PLUNGE SEWD AFTER DARK INTO
THE CAROLINAS. IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN EVOLVE THERE
IS REASON TO BELIEVE ORGANIZED STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THIS
REGION. 00Z MODELS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS WHICH WOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG/AHEAD OF ADVANCING SFC
BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING A SLIGHT RISK BUT AN
UPGRADE MAY BE WARRANTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

..ELSEWHERE...

MUCH WEAKER SHEAR WILL DOMINATE THE GULF STATES...SWD INTO THE FL
PENINSULA AS REMNANTS OF UPPER TROUGH SAG SEWD INTO THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO. RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ENHANCE THE
PROSPECT FOR DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG WEAK ZONE OF
CONFLUENCE THAT WILL STRETCH FROM CNTRL SC...WWD INTO CNTRL MS.
THIS ZONE OF LIKELY INITIATION WILL GRADUALLY SAG SWD DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY AS CONVECTION/OUTFLOW PROPAGATE TOWARD THE COASTAL
REGIONS.

ANOTHER POSSIBLE AREA FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
FL SEA BREEZE. PENINSULA SHOULD HEAT NICELY DURING THE DAY AS
COLDEST MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SAG INTO THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. WLY COMPONENT WOULD FAVOR EAST COAST CONVERGENCE
ZONE...THOUGH STORM MOTIONS WOULD LIKELY PROPAGATE SEWD. HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS MAY BE NOTED WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE GULF
STATES...INCLUDING FL.

.DARROW.. 05/11/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110550
SWODY1
SPC AC 110548

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2007

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
STRONGER WLYS SHOULD EXTEND GENERALLY W-E ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD AMPLIFY WITH TIME ACROSS THE
NWRN AND N CENTRAL CONUS AS ERN PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE W
COAST AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES. MEANWHILE...WEAK CUT-OFF LOW
SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY ESEWD FROM E TX INTO THE NWRN GULF.

AT THE SURFACE...PATTERN WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK. A BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND WSWWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY STATES AND THEN WNWWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

..LOWER MS VALLEY AND VICINITY...
GENERALLY-WEAK FLOW ALOFT BUT MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY
AND VICINITY...AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS ESEWD ACROSS E TX INTO SRN LA/THE
NWRN GULF. DESPITE THE LACK OF SHEAR...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORMS...AND ASSOCIATED
THREAT FOR LOCALLY-STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL FROM
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..PARTS OF THE NWRN CONUS/NRN ROCKIES...
MODERATELY-STRONG BELT OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS THIS PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM OF ERN PACIFIC
TROUGH/AROUND NRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. THOUGH APPARENT LACK OF
A WELL-DEFINED UPPER FEATURE SUGGESTS SYNOPTIC-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE...ISOLATED/PRIMARILY TERRAIN-INDUCED STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS AIRMASS BECOMES MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN STRENGTH OF FLOW ALOFT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANY
STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP TO INTENSIFY/BECOME SEVERE. GREATEST THREAT
APPEARS TO EXIST FROM PORTIONS OF ID EWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN
PARTS OF MT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..SD/NRN NEB...
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX/JET STREAK IS FORECAST CROSS THE NRN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITHIN BELT OF ENHANCED FLOW ON NRN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE.

DESPITE LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN AROUND 1000 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD AND VICINITY. WITH WEAK LOW
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SWRN SD AS WEAK UPPER FEATURE PASSES TO THE
N...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL UVV MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LIMITED...ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY -- AIDED
BY AMPLE SHEAR/FAVORABLY VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN 5% PROBABILITY FOR LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL ACROSS THIS REGION.

.GOSS.. 05/11/2007

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