KICT [052307]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 052307
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
507 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0506 PM HAIL SEDAN 37.13N 96.18W
11/05/2008 E1.75 INCH CHAUTAUQUA KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

LFW

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KOAX [052303]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 052303
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
502 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0502 PM HAIL TEKAMAH 41.78N 96.22W
11/05/2008 E0.75 INCH BURT NE TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

RCHERMOK

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KOUN [052300]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 052300
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
500 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0438 PM HAIL 2 S PERKINS 35.95N 97.03W
11/05/2008 E1.00 INCH PAYNE OK EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER ON HIGHWAY 177

&&

$$

SMITH

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KOUN [052258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 052258
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
458 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0440 PM HAIL OKLAHOMA CITY 35.47N 97.51W
11/05/2008 E0.88 INCH OKLAHOMA OK PUBLIC

PENNY SIZE HAIL AT SW 149TH AND WESTERN IN SW OKC.

&&

$$

SMITH

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KOUN [052255]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 052255
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
455 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0442 PM HAIL PERKINS 35.98N 97.03W
11/05/2008 E1.75 INCH PAYNE OK PUBLIC

REPORTED AT HIGHWAY 33 AND UNION. WINDS ALSO PUSHED
PICKUP TRUCK OFF THE ROAD.

&&

$$

SMITH

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KOUN [052248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 052248
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
448 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0443 PM HAIL NORMAN 35.22N 97.44W
11/05/2008 E1.00 INCH CLEVELAND OK PUBLIC

REPORTED AT 48TH AND ROCK CREEK ROAD IN NW NORMAN.

&&

$$

SMITH

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KOUN [052247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 052247
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
447 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0438 PM HAIL PERKINS 35.98N 97.03W
11/05/2008 E1.00 INCH PAYNE OK EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

SMITH

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KOUN [052247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 052247
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
447 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 5 W ARCHER CITY 33.59N 98.71W
11/05/2008 E1.00 INCH ARCHER TX AMATEUR RADIO

REPORTED AT THE ROADSIDE PARK WEST OF ARCHER CITY

&&

$$

SMITH

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KOUN [052245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 052245
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
445 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0441 PM TSTM WND GST NORMAN 35.22N 97.44W
11/05/2008 E60 MPH CLEVELAND OK NWS EMPLOYEE

REPORTED AT 36TH AND TECUMSEH ROAD IN NW NORMAN

&&

$$

SMITH

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KTOP [052243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 052243
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
442 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0420 PM TSTM WND GST 4 S BARNES 39.65N 96.87W
11/05/2008 E60 MPH WASHINGTON KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

JB

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KOUN [052242]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 052242
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
442 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0442 PM HAIL NORMAN 35.22N 97.44W
11/05/2008 E1.75 INCH CLEVELAND OK NWS EMPLOYEE

GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL AT 36TH AND TECUMSEH ROAD IN NORTHWEST
NORMAN.

&&

$$

SMITH

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KOUN [052240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 052240
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
440 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0439 PM HAIL NORMAN 35.22N 97.44W
11/05/2008 E1.00 INCH CLEVELAND OK NWS EMPLOYEE

SEVERAL REPORTS OF NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING

THE GROUND IN NORTHWEST NORMAN AT 36TH AND TECUMSEH ROAD.

&&

$$

SMITH

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KOUN [052235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 052235
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
435 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM HAIL NEWCASTLE 35.25N 97.60W
11/05/2008 E1.00 INCH MCCLAIN OK TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SMITH

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KOUN [052234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 052234
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
434 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HAIL CHICKASHA 35.04N 97.95W
11/05/2008 E1.00 INCH GRADY OK PUBLIC

&&

$$

SMITH

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KOUN [052233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 052233
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
433 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0432 PM HAIL NEWCASTLE 35.25N 97.60W
11/05/2008 E0.75 INCH MCCLAIN OK TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SMITH

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KICT [052233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KICT 052233
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
433 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0424 PM HAIL 7 E CEDAR VALE 37.11N 96.37W
11/05/2008 E1.00 INCH CHAUTAUQUA KS STORM CHASER

&&

$$

RBL

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KOUN [052230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 052230
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
430 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0424 PM HAIL 3 W MERIDIAN 35.84N 97.30W
11/05/2008 E0.75 INCH LOGAN OK PUBLIC

HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

$$

SMITH

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KOUN [052228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 052228
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
428 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0427 PM HAIL CHICKASHA 35.04N 97.95W
11/05/2008 E0.88 INCH GRADY OK AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

SMITH

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KICT [052225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 052225
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
425 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0324 PM HAIL 7 E CEDAR VALE 37.11N 96.37W
11/05/2008 E1.00 INCH CHAUTAUQUA KS STORM CHASER

&&

$$

LFW

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KOUN [052224]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 052224
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
424 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0419 PM HAIL 9 W STILLWATER 36.12N 97.22W
11/05/2008 E0.88 INCH PAYNE OK EMERGENCY MNGR

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL AT HIGHWAY 51 AND HIGHWAY 86.

&&

$$

SMITH

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KOUN [052222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 052222
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
422 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0418 PM HAIL 5 ENE GUTHRIE 35.91N 97.34W
11/05/2008 E1.75 INCH LOGAN OK AMATEUR RADIO

HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

$$

SMITH

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KOUN [052217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 052217
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
417 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0349 PM HAIL 8 S STERLING 34.63N 98.17W
11/05/2008 E0.88 INCH COMANCHE OK AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

SMITH

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KOUN [052205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 052205
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
405 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM TSTM WND GST KAW CITY 36.76N 96.86W
11/05/2008 E70 MPH KAY OK EMERGENCY MNGR

KAW CITY EM

0349 PM HAIL 13 E LAWTON 34.60N 98.19W
11/05/2008 E0.75 INCH COMANCHE OK AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

CR/FM

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KTSA [052154]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 052154
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
354 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM HAIL 11 W BURBANK 36.69N 96.93W
11/05/2008 E0.75 INCH OSAGE OK PUBLIC

REPORTED BY THE KAW LAKE COE

&&

$$

JDS

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KBIS [052140]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 052140
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
340 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HAIL 4 SE YPSILANTI 46.74N 98.51W
11/05/2008 E0.75 INCH STUTSMAN ND TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SWICHE

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KOUN [052132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 052132
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
331 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HAIL 1 S PIEDMONT 35.63N 97.75W
11/05/2008 E2.50 INCH CANADIAN OK BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORTED BY KWTV.

&&

$$

SMITH

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KOUN [052111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 052111
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
311 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0251 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W COGAR 35.33N 98.17W
11/05/2008 CADDO OK PUBLIC

THREE INCH DIAMETER OAK LIMBS DOWNED BY TSTM WINDS

&&

$$

CR/FM

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2350

ACUS11 KWNS 052056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052055
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-052200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2350
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND SERN NEB / SWRN IA / NERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 052055Z - 052200Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER E-CNTRL SD /W
OF HON/ WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD...GENERALLY E OF A
OFK TO OLU TO CNK LINE. 18Z OAX/TOP SOUNDINGS SHOWED A CAP CENTERED
AROUND 800 MB WITH ONLY WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY DUE TO
RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS
IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DO SHOW INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
COLD FRONT FROM NW OF FET TO E OF CNK. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT
DYNAMIC COOLING WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING HAS SUFFICIENTLY ERODED CAP TO
SUPPORT THIS DEVELOPMENT.

WHILE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE /I.E.
MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J PER KG/ THE INCREASED LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT IN CONCERT WITH THE RATHER STRONG DEEP-LAYER...UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR MAY FOSTER A FEW INTENSE LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

..MEAD.. 11/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 39239731 40829709 41439688 41599635 41599568 40989531
39669581 38789623 38699697 39239731

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2349

ACUS11 KWNS 052052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052051
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-052245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2349
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND...N CNTRL SD...ERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA/NERN
NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 052051Z - 052245Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
PERSIST FROM CNTRL SD NEWD INTO SERN ND AND WRN MN. FARTHER
S...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE QUITE ISOLATED WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

AT 20Z A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED W OF HON WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWD INTO NERN NEB. TOWERING CU WERE NOTED ACROSS ERN NEB
ALONG THE FRONT WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED FARTHER N INTO ERN SD WHERE MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER REMAINED WITH LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AS
OF 20Z EXCEPT N OF THE WARM FRONT. THERE...INCREASING SELY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS ADVECTING AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWWD ATOP A
COOLER AIR MASS RESULTING IN A RASH OF ELEVATED CONVECTION.

GIVEN VERY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED LIFT...AS WELL
AS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW LONGER LIVED CORES...STORMS
N OF THE WARM FRONT MAY PRODUCE HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE CRITERIA.
FARTHER S INTO THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
GIVEN CAPPING AS WELL AS MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE MID 50S F. AREA TAMDAR SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
THE 18Z OAX SOUNDING INDICATED SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING EVEN WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S F. NONETHELESS...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT AND A PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

..JEWELL.. 11/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 45909635 45549625 44399572 43319513 42399491 41689542
41399591 41249677 41249706 41429699 41939693 42699713
43369736 43889769 44299812 44619871 44369948 44260014
44290066 44560105 44940109 45490069 46519984 47049852
47079717 46989674 46569629 45909635

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 924

WWUS20 KWNS 052018
SEL4
SPC WW 052018
KSZ000-OKZ000-060400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 924
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
ARDMORE OKLAHOMA TO 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND E OF DRY
LINE ACROSS WRN OK INTO SRN KS AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE W. WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR AND MLCAPES TO 1000
J/KG...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE TOWARD
00Z AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR IMPROVES WITH DEEPENING OF SURFACE WAVE AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH AND STRONG JET MAX.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.

...HALES

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KRIW [052010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KRIW 052010
LSRRIW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
0108 PM MDT WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1227 PM SNOW CANYON 1 WSW 44.72N 110.51W
11/05/2008 E5.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

CANYON SNOTEL

1227 PM HEAVY SNOW SOUTH ENTRANCE 5 N 44.21N 110.67W
11/05/2008 E11.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

LEWIS LAKE DIVIDE SNOTEL

1228 PM HEAVY SNOW PAHASKA 10 W 44.48N 110.16W
11/05/2008 E10.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

SYLVAN LAKE SNOTEL

1228 PM HEAVY SNOW PAHASKA 4 WSW 44.48N 110.04W
11/05/2008 E8.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

SYLVAN ROAD SNOTEL

1228 PM HEAVY SNOW OLD FAITHFUL 14 ESE 44.37N 110.58W
11/05/2008 E10.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

THUMB DIVIDE SNOTEL

1229 PM HEAVY SNOW MORAN JUNCTION 25 NE 44.15N 110.22W
11/05/2008 E10.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

TWO OCEAN PLATEAU SNOTEL

1230 PM SNOW CLARK 21 W 44.94N 109.57W
11/05/2008 E3.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

BEARTOOTH LAKE SNOTEL

1230 PM SNOW WAPITI 19 WSW 44.38N 109.79W
11/05/2008 E5.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

BLACKWATER SNOTEL

1230 PM SNOW DUBOIS 11 N 43.70N 109.67W
11/05/2008 E2.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

BURROUGHS CREEK SNOTEL

1230 PM HEAVY SNOW PAHASKA 14 NE 44.65N 109.78W
11/05/2008 E7.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

EVENING STAR SNOTEL

1231 PM SNOW MEETEETSE 30 SW 43.86N 109.32W
11/05/2008 E2.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

KIRWIN SNOTEL

1231 PM SNOW CODY 18 SW 44.30N 109.24W
11/05/2008 E2.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

MARQUETTE SNOTEL

1231 PM SNOW THERMOPOLIS 40 W 43.66N 109.01W
11/05/2008 E1.00 INCHES HOT SPRINGS WY MESONET

OWL CREEK SNOTEL

1231 PM SNOW PAHASKA 16 N 44.73N 109.91W
11/05/2008 E5.00 INCHES YELLOWSTONE WY MESONET

PARKER PEAK SNOTEL

1231 PM SNOW MEETEETSE 18 WSW 44.03N 109.18W
11/05/2008 E1.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

TIMBER CREEK SNOTEL

1232 PM SNOW CLARK 26 WSW 44.80N 109.66W
11/05/2008 E2.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

WOLVERINE SNOTEL

1232 PM SNOW CODY 56 SW 43.93N 109.82W
11/05/2008 E4.00 INCHES PARK WY MESONET

YOUNTS PEAK SNOTEL

1232 PM HEAVY SNOW BONDURANT 19 SW 42.96N 110.61W
11/05/2008 E11.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

BLIND BULL SUMMIT SNOTEL

1232 PM HEAVY SNOW AFTON 8 SE 42.65N 110.81W
11/05/2008 E15.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

COTTONWOOD CREEK SNOTEL

1233 PM SNOW KEMMERER 26 N 42.15N 110.68W
11/05/2008 E4.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

HAMS FORK SNOTEL

1233 PM HEAVY SNOW KEMMERER 36 N 42.30N 110.68W
11/05/2008 E6.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

INDIAN CREEK SNOTEL

1234 PM SNOW KELLEY RANGER STATION SNOTEL42.27N
110.81W 11/05/2008 E5.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

KELLEY RANGER STATION SNOTEL

1234 PM HEAVY SNOW AFTON 19 SE 42.53N 110.66W
11/05/2008 E12.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

SPRING CREEK DIVIDE SNOTEL

1234 PM HEAVY SNOW AFTON 15 S 42.51N 110.91W
11/05/2008 E7.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

SALT RIVER SUMMIT SNOTEL

1234 PM SNOW BIG PINEY 21 W 42.49N 110.53W
11/05/2008 E5.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

SNIDER BASIN SNOTEL

1234 PM HEAVY SNOW AFTON 17 E 42.76N 110.59W
11/05/2008 E8.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

TRIPLE PEAK SNOTEL

1235 PM HEAVY SNOW AFTON 8 NE 42.82N 110.84W
11/05/2008 E21.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY MESONET

WILLOW CREEK SNOTEL

1235 PM SNOW BONDURANT 12 ESE 43.13N 110.20W
11/05/2008 E4.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

EAST RIM DIVIDE SNOTEL

1235 PM HEAVY SNOW MORAN JUNCTION 8 NNE 43.95N 110.45W
11/05/2008 E8.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

BASE CAMP SNOTEL

1236 PM HEAVY SNOW SOUTH ENTRANCE 8 W 44.13N 110.83W
11/05/2008 E12.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

GRASSY LAKE SNOTEL

1236 PM HEAVY SNOW ALTA 6 ENE 43.78N 110.93W
11/05/2008 E16.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

GRAND TARGHEE SNOTEL

1236 PM HEAVY SNOW BONDURANT 20 NE 43.39N 110.13W
11/05/2008 E6.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

GROS VENTRE SUMMIT SNOTEL

1236 PM HEAVY SNOW JACKSON 8 WNW 43.52N 110.91W
11/05/2008 E13.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

PHILLIPS BENCH SNOTEL

1237 PM SNOW BOULDER 24 ESE 42.65N 109.26W
11/05/2008 E4.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

BIG SANDY OPENING SNOTEL

1237 PM SNOW PINDALE 12 NNE 43.01N 109.76W
11/05/2008 E3.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

ELKHART PARK G.S. SNOTEL

1237 PM HEAVY SNOW GUNSIGHT PASS SNOTEL 43.38N 109.88W
11/05/2008 E6.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

GUNSIGHT PASS SNOTEL

1237 PM SNOW KENDALL RANGER STATION SNOTEL43.25N
110.02W 11/05/2008 E2.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

KENDALL RANGER STATION SNOTEL

1238 PM SNOW BONDURANT 14 E 43.17N 110.14W
11/05/2008 E5.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

LOOMIS PARK SNOTEL

1238 PM SNOW CORA 12 N 43.11N 109.95W
11/05/2008 E5.00 INCHES SUBLETTE WY MESONET

NEW FORK LAKE SNOTEL

1238 PM SNOW CROWHEART 14 W 43.28N 109.45W
11/05/2008 E2.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

COLD SPRINGS SNOTEL

1238 PM HEAVY SNOW LANDER 19 SSW 42.59N 108.90W
11/05/2008 E8.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

DEER PARK SNOTEL

1238 PM SNOW LANDER 18 W 42.87N 109.09W
11/05/2008 E3.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

HOBBS PARK SNOTEL

1239 PM SNOW DUBOIS 6 WSW 43.50N 109.75W
11/05/2008 E3.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

LITTLE WARM SNOTEL

1239 PM SNOW LANDER 26 NW 43.03N 109.17W
11/05/2008 E1.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

ST. LAWRENCE ALT SNOTEL

1239 PM HEAVY SNOW ATLANTIC CITY 7 NW 42.57N 108.84W
11/05/2008 E6.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

SOUTH PASS SNOTEL

1240 PM HEAVY SNOW DUBOIS 25 NW 43.75N 110.06W
11/05/2008 E11.00 INCHES TETON WY MESONET

TOGWOTEE PASS SNOTEL

1240 PM SNOW LANDER 12 SW 42.70N 108.90W
11/05/2008 E1.00 INCHES FREMONT WY MESONET

TOWNSEND CREEK SNOTEL

1241 PM HEAVY SNOW SMOOT 42.62N 110.91W
11/05/2008 M6.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1245 PM SNOW TETON VILLAGE 1.6 SW 43.59N 110.79W
11/05/2008 M2.00 INCHES TETON WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1247 PM SNOW THAYNE 4.2 NNE 42.97N 110.95W
11/05/2008 M5.00 INCHES LINCOLN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0103 PM HEAVY SNOW JACKSON HOLE MOUNTAIN
RESORT-RAYMER43.60N 110.85W 11/05/2008 M7.00 INCHES
TETON WY BTAVALANCHE

0104 PM HEAVY SNOW JACKSON HOLE MOUNTAIN
RESORT-SUMMIT43.59N 110.85W 11/05/2008 M12.00 INCHES
TETON WY BTAVALANCHE

&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051932
SWODY1
SPC AC 051929

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN OK AND SERN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NCNTRL TX TO SERN SD...

...ERN PLAINS/MS VALLEY...

WRN EDGE OF WARM SECTOR MOISTURE PLUME IS BEGINNING TO
DESTABILIZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHERE SFC
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA
INDICATES A NARROW AXIS OF 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE NOW EXISTS WITHIN
SLIGHTLY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM NWRN TX...NWD INTO NCNTRL OK.
LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS REGION OF DESTABILIZATION ALONG ERN
EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATE PLUME AS BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD IS
BEGINNING TO EXPAND AND DEEPEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN OK. WITH
TIME IT APPEARS PARCELS WILL REACH THEIR LFC AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EVOLVE. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
APPROACHING SPEED MAX THAT IS DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS NRN NM. LARGE
SCALE FORCING SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ENHANCE UPWARD
GROWTH OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK/KS. NEEDLESS
TO SAY SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE AT THIS TIME IS THE NARROW
AXIS OF INSTABILITY. EVEN SO SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS THEN SPREAD QUICKLY NEWD INTO NERN OK/SERN KS WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR
POTENTIAL TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG. WITH TIME A
SQUALL LINE SHOULD EVOLVE AND ADVANCE EWD AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. FARTHER NORTH...MEAGER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH BUOYANCY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG NRN PORTIONS OF COLD FRONT ACROSS NEB INTO ERN SD. LINEAR
DEVELOPMENT IS THE MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODE...THOUGH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY FIELD GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS.

..DARROW.. 11/05/2008

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2348

ACUS11 KWNS 051837
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051837
OKZ000-KSZ000-052000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2348
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS INTO WRN/CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 051837Z - 052000Z

ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT
WITH INITIATION LIKELY BY 20-21Z. A WW WILL BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO
THAT TIME.

COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO SRN
ROCKIES IS RESULTING IN A ZONE OF STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS DENOTED BY
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE OK/TX PNHDLS INTO SWRN KS. IN
THE LOW-LEVELS...DRYLINE IS RAPIDLY MIXING EWD ACROSS WRN TX WITH
THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION WITH COLD FRONT E OF DDC
SWWD THROUGH NWRN OK INTO W-CNTRL TX.

COMPARISON OF 12Z/18Z OUN SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER...WHILE DEEPENING...HAS REMAINED MOIST WITH A MEAN
MIXING RATIO OF AROUND 10.5-11.0 G/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...
EML/CAPPING INVERSION HAS COOLED 1-2 DEGREES C. CONTINUED DIABATIC
HEATING ALONG AND W OF DRYLINE OVER WRN OK COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC
MIDLEVEL COOLING WITH THIS ZONE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION /I.E. MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500
J PER KG/ AND EVENTUAL CAP EROSION BY MID AFTERNOON. AS THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT INCIPIENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR FROM ALONG COLD
FRONT OVER CNTRL KS SWWD ALONG DRYLINE INTO WRN OR CNTRL OK.

CURRENT VWP/PROFILER/SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING WIND PROFILES INDICATE A
PRONOUNCED VEERING-BACKING SIGNATURE OWING TO VEERED FLOW AT THE TOP
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. NONETHELESS...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT
WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. BY THIS EVENING...LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO EJECTING UPPER
WAVE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN THE BACKING OF WINDS
AROUND 850 MB WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE MAGNITUDE OF NEAR GROUND SHEAR
WITH 0-1 KM SRH INCREASING TO AOA 250-300 M2/S2. THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/ IS EXPECTED TO CORRESPONDINGLY
INCREASE WITH ANY MORE SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS THAT MAY BE ONGOING AT
THAT TIME.

..MEAD.. 11/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 34739828 37039822 38179821 38429759 38329649 37279621
34519624 34049685 34179812 34739828

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KMHX [051810]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 051810
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
110 PM EST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1220 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 NNW RODANTHE 35.72N 75.51W
11/05/2008 M68.00 MPH DARE NC MESONET

NWS MESONET STATION AT PEA ISLAND.

1225 PM STORM SURGE RODANTHE 35.61N 75.46W
11/05/2008 E0.00 FT DARE NC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

OCEAN OVERWASH REPORTED AT MERLO BEACH.

1225 PM STORM SURGE FRISCO 35.23N 75.61W
11/05/2008 E0.00 FT DARE NC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

SOUNDSIDE FLOODING BEGINNING IN FRISCO.

1225 PM FLOOD 3 SSW RODANTHE 35.57N 75.48W
11/05/2008 DARE NC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

MINOR FLOODING OF HIGHWAY 12 IN SALVO DUE TO RAINFALL. UP
TO 1 FOOT OF WATER ON ROAD LIMITING TRAFFIC.

&&

$$

JBM

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KPUB [051720]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 051720
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1020 AM MST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1008 AM SNOW 1 SE WOLF CREEK PASS 37.47N 106.79W
11/05/2008 M10.0 INCH MINERAL CO PUBLIC

WOLF CREEK SKI AREA REPORTED THAT 10 INCHES OF SNOW HAS
FALLEN DURING THE PAST 25 HOURS WITH HEAVY SNOW
CONTINUING.

&&

$$

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 051717
SWODY2
SPC AC 051715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CST WED NOV 05 2008

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...MS VALLEY...

STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH CENTER
OF CIRCULATION EXPECTED TO BECOME COLOCATED NEAR THE SFC LOW OVER
SRN MN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. STRONG 12HR HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE
ORDER OF 150M...WILL ROTATE NEWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH SURGING COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL ASCENT AND ENCOURAGE LOW-TOPPED
CONVECTION ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL
SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO MEAGER TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL
THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY SHALLOW SQUALL LINE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FARTHER SOUTH...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DRAPE ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO SERN TX AS LARGE SCALE SUPPORT LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE UNSTABLE THAN NRN
PORTIONS...HOWEVER WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MUCAPE
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS LA INTO THE UPPER TX
COAST. EVEN SO...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD READILY DEVELOP ALONG COLD
FRONT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL ENHANCE ORGANIZATIONAL POTENTIAL AND A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AFTER DARK.

..DARROW.. 11/05/2008

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DAY1SVR: Public Severe Weather Outlook (Automatic)

334
WOUS40 KWNS 051639
PWOSPC
KSZ000-OKZ000-060045-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1039 AM CST WED NOV 05 2008

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE PARTS
OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE PARTS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM...EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MO
VALLEY.

A STRONG COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD
INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT. A WARM/MOIST UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED FROM ERN
SD/CENTRAL NEB TO SERN CO WILL FUEL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SCENTRAL
KS/NCENTRAL OK NEAR THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION. ADDITIONAL
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD ALONG DRY LINE TO THE
TX/OK BORDER BY THIS EVENING.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS TRACKING NEWD
ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK THRU THE EVENING WITH POSSIBLE STRONG
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS FROM ERN NEB SWD THRU OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE THREAT EXTENDING EWD INTO LOWER MO VALLEY AND THE OZARKS
TONIGHT.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..HALES.. 11/05/2008

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KABQ [051624]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 051624
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
923 AM MST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0125 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 2 SSW FORT STANTON 33.47N 105.54W
11/05/2008 M43.00 MPH LINCOLN NM AWOS

0700 AM SNOW 2 N CHAMA 36.92N 106.58W
11/05/2008 M1.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0842 AM SNOW 17 SW CUBA 35.85N 107.17W
11/05/2008 M1.0 INCH SANDOVAL NM CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

DPORTER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051617
SWODY1
SPC AC 051614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST WED NOV 05 2008

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF SRN KS AND NRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS INTO
THE OZARKS AND LWR MO VLY......

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT...NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL CONTINUE E INTO THE HIGH PLNS THIS EVENING BEFORE
EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SE SD/NE NEB EARLY THURSDAY.
ASSOCIATED 90 KT MID LVL JET STREAK NRN AZ SHOULD REACH
THE TX PANHANDLE BY 21Z...AND REDEVELOP NNE ACROSS ERN KS/WRN
MO TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC...ELONGATED LOW ATTM EXTENDING FROM NW KS TO THE ERN
DAKOTAS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A DEEPENING...NEARLY STATIONARY
CENTER OVER ERN SD THIS EVE. TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUBSEQUENTLY ACCELERATE E/SEWD...REACHING THE LWR MO VLY...THE
OZARKS...AND THE SRN PLNS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 12Z NAM/GFS
SUGGESTS A SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION
DEVELOPS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG NRN OK/KS BORDER AND MOVES
NEWD TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING VORT MAX NOW VICINITY
4-CORNERS.

..SRN/CNTRL PLNS INTO OZARKS...

A MODIFIED BUT ADEQUATE MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES ACROSS THE PLAINS
IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONG TROUGH. ONGOING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY WILL TRANSITION INTO SURFACE
BASED SEVERE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/DRY LINE
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
7C/KM AND SFC TD/S NEAR 60F ALONG WITH PW/S AN INCH PLUS...THE
HEATING COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL COOLING/ASCENT WILL RAISE MLCAPES TO
AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG WITH MINIMAL CINH BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SRN KS INTO OK. SHEAR PROFILES OF 60KT ALONG WITH STRONG HEATING IN
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW IN WAKE OF THE DRY LINE WILL LEAD TO
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS INITIALLY
NEAR DRY LINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION. ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL WILL
HAVE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AS THEY TRACK NEWD ACROSS SERN
KS/NERN OK THRU THIS EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LIVED
SUPERCELLS INCLUDING POSSIBLE STRONG TORNADOES AS THEY TRACK THRU
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS THIS EVENING DUE TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE. SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND SWD ALONG DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL OK
BY 00Z.

WHILE SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER N ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...STORMS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION RATHER QUICKLY INTO A LINEAR
MODE BY THIS EVENING WITH PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE/HAIL THREAT AS THEY
MOVE EWD ACROSS SERN NEB/NERN KS INTO SWRN IA/MO.

..NRN PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY...
ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN ZONE OF
SUSTAINED WAA N OF CONSOLIDATING SFC LOW IN ERN SD. THESE STORMS
COULD YIELD A FEW SPOTS OF HAIL FROM NRN SD INTO PARTS OF ND/MN.
SFC-BASED STORMS MAY FORM FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTN/EVE CLOSER TO
SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT IN ERN SD/NERN NEB AND NW IA. THESE WILL
MOVE QUICKLY NNEWD. WHILE A LIMITED SVR THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN BY MID
EVE.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 11/05/2008

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KMPX [051607]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 051607
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1007 AM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 AM HAIL MORA 45.88N 93.29W
11/05/2008 E0.88 INCH KANABEC MN PUBLIC

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

$$

MTF

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KGJT [051557]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...updated

NWUS55 KGJT 051557 AAA
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
818 AM MST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM SNOW 10 S SILVERTON 37.67N 107.66W
11/05/2008 M11.0 INCH SAN JUAN CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

COLORADO AVALANCHE FORECASTERS REPORTED 11 INCHES
OF SNOWFALL OVER RED MOUNTAIN PASS IN THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS.

0600 AM SNOW 4 SE CRESTED BUTTE 38.83N 106.93W
11/05/2008 M12.0 INCH GUNNISON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

ROCKY MOUNTAIN BIOLOGICAL LABORATORY IN GOTHIC

&&

$$

JRAMEY

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KBOU [051543]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 051543
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
843 AM MST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM SNOW 2 SSE TABERNASH 39.95N 105.84W
11/05/2008 M3.0 INCH GRAND CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM SNOW 1 SE BRECKENRIDGE 39.50N 106.03W
11/05/2008 M1.7 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0500 AM SNOW LOVELAND PASS 39.67N 105.88W
11/05/2008 M3.0 INCH CLEAR CREEK CO MESONET

0500 AM SNOW BERTHOUD PASS 39.80N 105.78W
11/05/2008 M3.0 INCH CLEAR CREEK CO MESONET

0500 AM HEAVY SNOW RABBIT EARS PASS 40.38N 106.61W
11/05/2008 M6.0 INCH GRAND CO MESONET

0500 AM HEAVY SNOW CAMERON PASS 40.52N 105.88W
11/05/2008 M6.0 INCH JACKSON CO MESONET

&&

$$

JK

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KPIH [051532]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPIH 051532
LSRPIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO
832 AM MST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 AM SNOW DUBOIS 44.17N 112.23W
11/05/2008 E0.0 INCH CLARK ID TRAINED SPOTTER

TRACE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

0820 AM SNOW ISLAND PARK 44.56N 111.34W
11/05/2008 E4.0 INCH FREMONT ID TRAINED SPOTTER

FOUR INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

0825 AM SNOW ASHTON 44.07N 111.45W
11/05/2008 E1.0 INCH FREMONT ID TRAINED SPOTTER

ONE INCH OF SNOW ACCUMLATION.

&&

$$

TWYATT

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KGJT [051518]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 051518
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
818 AM MST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 AM SNOW 10 S SILVERTON 37.67N 107.66W
11/05/2008 M12.0 INCH SAN JUAN CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

COLORADO AVALANCHE FORECASTERS REPORTED 12 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL OVER THE PASSES IN THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

0600 AM SNOW 4 SE CRESTED BUTTE 38.83N 106.93W
11/05/2008 E12.0 INCH GUNNISON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

ROCKY MOUNTAIN BIOLOGICAL LABORATORY IN GOTHIC

&&

$$

JRAMEY

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2347

ACUS11 KWNS 051505
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051505
OKZ000-KSZ000-051630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2347
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0905 AM CST WED NOV 05 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS INTO N-CNTRL/NERN OK

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 051505Z - 051630Z

AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK AT 1630Z.

12Z MODEL DATA ARE CONSISTENT WITH 00Z HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SETS IN
SUGGESTING THAT THE MOST INTENSE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR
OVER S-CNTRL/SERN KS INTO N-CNTRL/NERN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THIS STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED FROM NEAR THE TRIPLE
POINT OF COLD FRONT/DRYLINE SWD WHERE STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE DISCRETE IN NATURE. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO.

..MEAD.. 11/05/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 36549750 37529748 38289671 38259576 37699521 36729485
35839512 35639611 35979724 36549750

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KBOU [051504]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 051504
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
804 AM MST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 1 SE BRECKENRIDGE 39.50N 106.03W
11/05/2008 M1.7 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0500 AM SNOW LOVELAND PASS 39.67N 105.88W
11/05/2008 M3.0 INCH CLEAR CREEK CO MESONET

0500 AM SNOW BERTHOUD PASS 39.80N 105.78W
11/05/2008 M3.0 INCH CLEAR CREEK CO MESONET

0500 AM HEAVY SNOW RABBIT EARS PASS 40.38N 106.61W
11/05/2008 M6.0 INCH GRAND CO MESONET

0500 AM HEAVY SNOW CAMERON PASS 40.52N 105.88W
11/05/2008 M6.0 INCH JACKSON CO MESONET

&&

$$

JK

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KMPX [051413]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 051413
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
813 AM CST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0759 AM HAIL 5 S RENVILLE 44.72N 95.22W
11/05/2008 E0.75 INCH RENVILLE MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

TRH

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KABQ [051332]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 051332
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
632 AM MST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0612 AM SNOW TIERRA AMARILLA 36.70N 106.55W
11/05/2008 E5.5 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM PUBLIC

5 TO 6 INCHES SNOW ACCUMULATION

&&

$$

43

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051301
SWODY1
SPC AC 051258

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST WED NOV 05 2008

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS INTO
THE OZARKS AND LWR MO VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
POTENT...NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL CONTINUE E INTO THE HIGH PLNS THIS EVENING BEFORE
EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER SE SD/NE NEB EARLY THURSDAY.
ASSOCIATED 90 KT MID LVL JET STREAK NOW ENTERING NRN AZ SHOULD REACH
THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE TODAY...AND REDEVLOP NNE ACROSS ERN KS/WRN
MO TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.

AT THE SFC...ELONGATED LOW ATTM EXTENDING FROM NW KS TO THE ERN
DAKOTAS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A DEEPENING...NEARLY STATIONARY
CENTER OVER ERN SD THIS EVE. TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD
SUBSEQUENTLY ACCELERATE E/SEWD...REACHING THE LWR MO VLY...THE
OZARKS...AND THE SRN PLNS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...SRN/CNTRL PLNS INTO OZARKS...
SYSTEM NOW DEEPENING OFF THE NC CST WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT W/E
BREADTH OF LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS ERN PARTS OF THE SRN
PLNS/LWR MS VLY. BUT LATEST GPS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA DO
SHOW AXIS OF MODERATE MOISTURE /PW AOA 1 INCH/ NOW WELL ESTABLISHED
FROM CNTRL/E TX NNE INTO THE ERN HALF OF KS. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC
DATA SHOW 60 DEG F ISODROSOTHERM NOW NOSING N TO NEAR ADM. LOW LVL
MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD N INTO ERN KS/FAR WRN MO
TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT ALONG 50 KT SSWLY LLJ.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY FROM N TX NWD
INTO ERN SD AS FOUR CORNERS TROUGH CONTINUES EWD. A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN ASCENT SHOULD...HOWEVER...OCCUR THIS EVE
FROM CNTRL/ERN OK NNE INTO ERN KS/ERN NEB/NW MO AS EXIT REGION OF
120 KT HIGH LVL JET STREAK APPROACHES REGION.

COMBINATION OF INCREASING UVV AND FAVORABLY-TIMED SFC HEATING SHOULD
SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTN ALONG COLD FRONT FROM
SE SD/ERN NEB SWD INTO N CNTRL OK. GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND
STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WITH EML...THESE SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
SUPERCELLS AND POSE A THREAT FOR SVR WIND...SOME HAIL...AND POSSIBLY
A COUPLE TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO FORM AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT IN OK AND SRN/ERN KS...WHERE W/E EXTENT OF RETURNING MOISTURE
WILL BE GREATEST...AND WHERE AN AXIS OF LOW LVL CONFLUENCE LIKELY
WILL EXIST INVOF PREFRONTAL TROUGH/WEAK DRY LINE.

THE COLD FRONTAL STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN QLCS THIS EVE AS
ACCLERATION OF FRONT AND INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS FAVOR EVOLUTION TO
DOMINANT LINEAR MODE. STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD
SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...THAT THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE ISOLD TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DMGG WINDS AS THE LINE
CONTINUES E INTO MO LATER TONIGHT. FARTHER SE...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR A MORE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS INVOF
CONFLUENCE AXIS IN OK/FAR SRN KS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND
SUBSTANTIAL DEGREE OF LOW LVL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...SETUP COULD
YIELD A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH MID TO LATE EVE.

THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINSH LATER TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY OVER
PARTS OF MO...NW AR...AND ERN OK AS AREA OF ASCENT OUT-RUNS AXIS OF
RETURNING MOISTURE.

...NRN PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY...
ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD IN ZONE OF
SUSTAINED WAA N OF CONSOLIDATING SFC LOW IN ERN SD. THESE STORMS
COULD YIELD A FEW SPOTS OF HAIL FROM NRN SD INTO PARTS OF ND/MN.
SFC-BASED STORMS MAY FORM FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTN/EVE CLOSER TO
SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT IN ERN SD/ERN NEB AND NW IA. THESE WILL MOVE
QUICKLY NNEWD. WHILE A LIMITED SVR THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN BY MID
EVE.

..CORFIDI/PETERS.. 11/05/2008

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KBOU [051232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 051232
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
531 AM MST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM SNOW LOVELAND PASS 39.67N 105.88W
11/05/2008 M3.0 INCH CLEAR CREEK CO MESONET

0500 AM SNOW BERTHOUD PASS 39.80N 105.78W
11/05/2008 M3.0 INCH CLEAR CREEK CO MESONET

0500 AM SNOW BRECKENRIDGE 39.51N 106.05W
11/05/2008 M1.0 INCH SUMMIT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0500 AM HEAVY SNOW RABBIT EARS PASS 40.38N 106.61W
11/05/2008 M6.0 INCH GRAND CO MESONET

0500 AM HEAVY SNOW CAMERON PASS 40.52N 105.88W
11/05/2008 M6.0 INCH JACKSON CO MESONET

&&

$$

JK

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KMHX [051038]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 051038
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
538 AM EST WED NOV 05 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0317 AM FLOOD RODANTHE 35.61N 75.46W
11/05/2008 DARE NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

HEAVY RAINS PRODUCING FLOODING AND CLOSURE OF HIGHWAY 12
ON HATTERAS ISLAND FROM OREGON INLET TO AVON. WATER
ESTIMATED TO BE 8 INCHES DEEP.

&&

$$

JELARDO

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 050942
SWOD48
SPC AC 050941

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CST WED NOV 05 2008

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SVR RISK AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PRIOR TO THE POLAR TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE
EASTERN STATES STILL APPEARS LOW. BUT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A QUICK
AND SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME RUNS FORECAST THIS COINCIDENT WITH
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. HOWEVER...VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPMENTS REMAINS CONSIDERABLE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

..KERR.. 11/05/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 050732
SWODY3
SPC AC 050730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 AM CST WED NOV 05 2008

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LARGE-
SCALE POLAR TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...LIKELY SHIFTING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... AS THE
NEXT STRONG UPSTREAM JET STREAK APPROACHES THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC
COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...A BROAD FAIRLY DEEP OCCLUDED CYCLONE IS
PROGGED TO MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ADVANCES INTO AND ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF THE PERSISTENT LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE THAT
IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC
COAST...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE
DESTABILIZATION. THUS...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EAST...AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S. APPEARS LOW FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

..KERR.. 11/05/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 050558
SWODY2
SPC AC 050557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST TUE NOV 04 2008

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU ACROSS PARTS OF THE WRN
GULF COAST THRU THE LWR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....

...SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY PERSISTS WITHIN THE MODEL DATA CONCERNING
THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLVING CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THIS PERIOD. FURTHER DEEPENING OF THIS FEATURE MAY OCCUR...AS THE
PRIMARY SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTS AROUND ITS EASTERN/NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. BUT...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE LARGER-SCALE AMPLIFIED POLAR TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SLOW...WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR AND TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SAME TIME...THE LOW/MID LEVEL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT DOWNSTREAM WESTERLIES IS
STILL PROGGED TO BE SLOW TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO GREAT LAKES...
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE DOWNSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW...WARM
SECTOR GULF MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BECOME PARTICULARLY BROAD OR STRONG. AND...MOISTURE THAT DOES
RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW
OVER MINNESOTA EARLY THURSDAY...AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL/PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTIVE BAND ADVANCES EAST OF THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WHILE THE VIGOR OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE LIMITED BY WEAK
INSTABILITY...IT MAY STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE DOWNWARD
TRANSPORT OF HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR NEAR A SOUTHERLY JET CORE /40-50
KTS AT 850 MB...70-90 KT AT 500 MB JET/ LIFTING AROUND THE LOW
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SUPPORTING THE RISK FOR AT LEAST
SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...MID MS/LWR OH VALLEYS THRU LWR MS VLY/WRN GULF COAST...
BEFORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS AND VEERS TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWER LEVELS MAY
CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITHIN A SHRINKING WARM SECTOR WEDGE ACROSS THE
REGION. GUIDANCE HINTS AT A POSSIBLE LINGERING PRE-FRONTAL DRY LINE
STRUCTURE FROM PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN
ARKANSAS...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTHEAST AS THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
REGION...WHERE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT ENHANCED
IN THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS POSSIBLE...BUT FRONTAL
FORCING COUPLED WITH THE TENDENCY TOWARD INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A BROKEN SQUALL LINE BENEATH DIFLUENT AND AT LEAST
WEAKLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS...BEFORE CONVECTION
WEAKENS THURSDAY EVENING.

..KERR.. 11/05/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050556
SWODY1
SPC AC 050554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST TUE NOV 04 2008

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS...WRN OZARKS AND MID-MO VALLEY......

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/WRN OZARKS...
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE AMPLIFYING AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TODAY.
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...A WELL-DEVELOPED 60 TO 70 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL QUICKLY TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE NWD AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IN THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 60S F ACROSS MUCH OF OK
AND SE KS. MODEL FORECASTS INITIATE CONVECTION ALONG THE MOIST AXIS
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD GRADUALLY ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL-LINE DURING THE EARLY
EVENING MOVING INTO ERN PARTS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS SCENARIO
IS SUPPORTED BY A WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE
NAM...GFS...NAMKF AND WRF.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND EJECT NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASING 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES INTO THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE IN MUCH OF ERN KS AND OK BY 00Z.
THIS SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS STORMS INITIATE
ALONG A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY MOSTLY LIKELY STARTING
IN ECNTRL KS AND EXPANDING SWD INTO CNTRL OK DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS MAY HAVE TORNADO POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IN SE KS
AND ECNTRL OK WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...MODEL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THE STORMS WILL NOT REMAIN DISCRETE FOR VERY LONG AS STRONG
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND VERY STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FORCES
SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPMENT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR A DECREASING
TORNADO POTENTIAL AND INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WITH TIME.

...NRN PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS
A POWERFUL MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. A REGION
OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE
MID-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LIFT. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY NNEWD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LIKELY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
NEAR A SFC LOW IN ERN SD...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN ERN NEB AND
ALONG A WARM FRONT IN MN.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXIT
REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET. WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 45 TO
55 KT RANGE AND MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG...CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...BEFORE 00Z
INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 700 MB SUGGESTING STORMS WILL
BE ELEVATED IN NATURE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE PRIMARY THREAT HAIL
ACROSS ERN SD AND WRN MN. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN
IA...SOME SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW THE CAP DIMINISHING.

..BROYLES/HURLBUT.. 11/05/2008

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