SWODY1
SPC AC 051929
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008
VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN OK AND SERN KS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NCNTRL TX TO SERN SD...
...ERN PLAINS/MS VALLEY...
WRN EDGE OF WARM SECTOR MOISTURE PLUME IS BEGINNING TO
DESTABILIZE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHERE SFC
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA
INDICATES A NARROW AXIS OF 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE NOW EXISTS WITHIN
SLIGHTLY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM NWRN TX...NWD INTO NCNTRL OK.
LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS REGION OF DESTABILIZATION ALONG ERN
EDGE OF STEEPER LAPSE RATE PLUME AS BOUNDARY LAYER CU FIELD IS
BEGINNING TO EXPAND AND DEEPEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SWRN OK. WITH
TIME IT APPEARS PARCELS WILL REACH THEIR LFC AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD EVOLVE. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY
APPROACHING SPEED MAX THAT IS DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS NRN NM. LARGE
SCALE FORCING SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ENHANCE UPWARD
GROWTH OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF ERN OK/KS. NEEDLESS
TO SAY SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BE
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE AT THIS TIME IS THE NARROW
AXIS OF INSTABILITY. EVEN SO SUPERCELLS SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE
NEXT 2-4 HOURS THEN SPREAD QUICKLY NEWD INTO NERN OK/SERN KS WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR
POTENTIAL TORNADO DEVELOPMENT...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG. WITH TIME A
SQUALL LINE SHOULD EVOLVE AND ADVANCE EWD AS LARGE SCALE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. FARTHER NORTH...MEAGER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH BUOYANCY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG NRN PORTIONS OF COLD FRONT ACROSS NEB INTO ERN SD. LINEAR
DEVELOPMENT IS THE MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE MODE...THOUGH EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE WEAKER INSTABILITY FIELD GIVEN
THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS.
..DARROW.. 11/05/2008
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