SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051837
OKZ000-KSZ000-052000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2348
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS INTO WRN/CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 051837Z - 052000Z
ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT
WITH INITIATION LIKELY BY 20-21Z. A WW WILL BE REQUIRED PRIOR TO
THAT TIME.
COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO SRN
ROCKIES IS RESULTING IN A ZONE OF STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS DENOTED BY
MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE OK/TX PNHDLS INTO SWRN KS. IN
THE LOW-LEVELS...DRYLINE IS RAPIDLY MIXING EWD ACROSS WRN TX WITH
THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION WITH COLD FRONT E OF DDC
SWWD THROUGH NWRN OK INTO W-CNTRL TX.
COMPARISON OF 12Z/18Z OUN SOUNDINGS INDICATES THAT WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER...WHILE DEEPENING...HAS REMAINED MOIST WITH A MEAN
MIXING RATIO OF AROUND 10.5-11.0 G/KG. AT THE SAME TIME...
EML/CAPPING INVERSION HAS COOLED 1-2 DEGREES C. CONTINUED DIABATIC
HEATING ALONG AND W OF DRYLINE OVER WRN OK COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC
MIDLEVEL COOLING WITH THIS ZONE OF UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION /I.E. MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-1500
J PER KG/ AND EVENTUAL CAP EROSION BY MID AFTERNOON. AS THIS
OCCURS...EXPECT INCIPIENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR FROM ALONG COLD
FRONT OVER CNTRL KS SWWD ALONG DRYLINE INTO WRN OR CNTRL OK.
CURRENT VWP/PROFILER/SUPPLEMENTAL SOUNDING WIND PROFILES INDICATE A
PRONOUNCED VEERING-BACKING SIGNATURE OWING TO VEERED FLOW AT THE TOP
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. NONETHELESS...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT
WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. BY THIS EVENING...LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO EJECTING UPPER
WAVE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN THE BACKING OF WINDS
AROUND 850 MB WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE MAGNITUDE OF NEAR GROUND SHEAR
WITH 0-1 KM SRH INCREASING TO AOA 250-300 M2/S2. THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES /SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/ IS EXPECTED TO CORRESPONDINGLY
INCREASE WITH ANY MORE SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS THAT MAY BE ONGOING AT
THAT TIME.
..MEAD.. 11/05/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 34739828 37039822 38179821 38429759 38329649 37279621
34519624 34049685 34179812 34739828
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