KUNR [180219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 180219
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
819 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0805 PM HAIL 1 W KEYAPAHA 43.10N 100.15W
08/17/2011 E1.25 INCH TRIPP SD PUBLIC

0805 PM TSTM WND GST 1 W KEYAPAHA 43.10N 100.15W
08/17/2011 E60.00 MPH TRIPP SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

MERICKSO

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1998

ACUS11 KWNS 180218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180218
SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-180315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1998
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0918 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD...PARTS OF CENTRAL-SWRN NEB...AND FAR NWRN
KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 783...

VALID 180218Z - 180315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 783
CONTINUES.

LOCAL WFO AREAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF WW 783 IS POSSIBLE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEB.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT /PRIMARILY DUE TO LARGE HAIL/
SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL SD /ERN TODD AND SRN TRIPP
COUNTIES/ AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEB /FAR NERN CHERRY...KEYA
PAHA...BROWN...AND ROCK COUNTIES/. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT SRN SD
BY 03Z AND MAY AFFECT NRN NEB THROUGH 04-05Z.

OTHERWISE...AT 02Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE STRONG-SEVERE
STORM THAT HAD MOVED SWD OUT OF SRN CHERRY COUNTY NEB HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY OVER MCPHERSON COUNTY NEB...WHILE A SIMILAR TREND IS
OCCURRING WITH THE CHASE COUNTY NEB STORM.

THERMODYNAMICALLY...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED STRENGTHENING
SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION...GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND
THE MIDLEVEL CAP /AROUND 700 MB/ PER 00Z LBF SOUNDING ARE RESULTING
IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NERN EXTENT OF WW 783 WHERE A
LOCAL WFO EXTENSION IN AREA AND TIME IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 04-05Z.
01Z RUC SUGGESTS THE OVERALL LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION WILL DECREASE
BY 05Z.

..PETERS.. 08/18/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 43730081 43729966 42829936 41979958 41799981 41720024
40960021 40100060 39870115 39730202 40000220 41420176
42460128 43510088 43730081

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KUNR [180212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 180212
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
811 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM HAIL 3 NE CLEARFIELD 43.20N 99.99W
08/17/2011 E1.00 INCH TRIPP SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

MERICKSO

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KICT [180206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 180206
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
906 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM TSTM WND DMG ROSE HILL 37.57N 97.13W
08/17/2011 BUTLER KS EMERGENCY MNGR

DELAYED REPORT THAT REC CENTER ROOF WAS PEELED OFF
CAUSING AN INCH OF STANDING WATER WITH THE SUBSEQUENT
RAIN.

0858 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NW LATHAM 37.56N 96.67W
08/17/2011 E65.00 MPH BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATES 60 TO 65 MPH WINDS AND PEA
SIZED HAIL.

&&

$$

VJP

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KUNR [180149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 180149
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
749 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 PM HAIL 8 SSE OKREEK 43.26N 100.32W
08/17/2011 E1.75 INCH TODD SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

CALDERON

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KICT [180148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 180148
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
848 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 PM TSTM WND GST 7 S LEON 37.59N 96.78W
08/17/2011 E60.00 MPH BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATES WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.

&&

$$

VJP

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KLBF [180147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 180147
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
847 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0739 PM HAIL 5 W MULLEN 42.04N 101.14W
08/17/2011 E1.75 INCH HOOKER NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

JAHSENMA

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KUNR [180145]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 180145
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
745 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0740 PM HAIL 9 S OKREEK 43.24N 100.38W
08/17/2011 E1.00 INCH TODD SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

CALDERON

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KUNR [180143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 180143
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
743 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0743 PM HAIL CLEARFIELD 43.17N 100.03W
08/17/2011 E1.75 INCH TRIPP SD LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

CALDERON

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KLBF [180140]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLBF 180140
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
839 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0825 PM HAIL 20 S MULLEN 41.75N 101.04W
08/17/2011 M1.00 INCH HOOKER NE NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

SPRINGER

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KLBF [180137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 180137
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
837 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0835 PM HAIL 20 S MULLEN 41.75N 101.04W
08/17/2011 M1.00 INCH HOOKER NE NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

SPRINGER

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KUNR [180133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 180133
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
733 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM HAIL 3 SE MIDLAND 44.04N 101.11W
08/17/2011 E1.00 INCH HAAKON SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

CALDERON

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KICT [180132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 180132
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
832 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E ROSE HILL 37.57N 97.10W
08/17/2011 BUTLER KS EMERGENCY MNGR

DELAYED REPORT. TWO BARN ROOFS WERE BLOWN OFF 1 TO 2
MILES EAST OF ROSE HILL.

&&

$$

ADK

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KUNR [180131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 180131
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
731 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM HAIL 8 NNW KEYAPAHA 43.21N 100.19W
08/17/2011 E1.00 INCH TRIPP SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

CALDERON

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KUNR [180130]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 180130
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
730 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0612 PM HAIL 6 S WOOD 43.41N 100.48W
08/17/2011 E1.00 INCH MELLETTE SD PUBLIC

0712 PM HAIL 6 S WOOD 43.41N 100.48W
08/17/2011 E1.00 INCH MELLETTE SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

CALDERON

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KICT [180130]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 180130
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
830 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM TSTM WND DMG ROSE HILL 37.57N 97.13W
08/17/2011 BUTLER KS EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE FELL ON A RESIDENCE IN ROSE HILL...DAMAGING THE
HOMES SIDING AND WINDOWS...ALONG WITH DAMAGING A CAR.

&&

$$

ADK

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KLBF [180122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 180122
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
822 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM HAIL 26 NW MULLEN 42.31N 101.40W
08/17/2011 E2.75 INCH CHERRY NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

JAHSENMA

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KLBF [180122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 180122
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
822 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0740 PM TORNADO 25 NW MULLEN 42.30N 101.39W
08/17/2011 CHERRY NE PUBLIC

ROPE TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN JUST SOUTH OF THEIR
HOME IN A PASTURE.

&&

$$

JAHSENMA

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KICT [180118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 180118
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
818 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM TSTM WND DMG ROSE HILL 37.57N 97.13W
08/17/2011 BUTLER KS EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES AND TREE LIMBS WERE DOWNED ON THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN SIDES OF ROSE HILL...ONE OF WHICH WAS UP TO
12 INCHES IN DIAMETER. SEVERAL FENCES WERE BLOWN OVER AS
WELL. ALSO...THE ROOF OF A BUILDING WAS DAMAGED JUST
SOUTH OF ROSE HILL...WITH A LARGE TREE UPROOTED IN THE
SAME AREA.

&&

$$

ADK

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KICT [180104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 180104
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
803 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM TSTM WND GST 3 S ROSE HILL 37.52N 97.13W
08/17/2011 E70 MPH BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATES 70 MPH WINDS AND HAD NICKEL
SIZED HAIL.

0800 PM HAIL 3 S ROSE HILL 37.52N 97.13W
08/17/2011 E0.88 INCH BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATES NICKEL SIZED HAIL WITH 70 MPH
WINDS.

&&

$$

VJP

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KUNR [180058]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 180058
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
658 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM HAIL 15 N CEDAR BUTTE 43.80N 101.02W
08/17/2011 E2.75 INCH MELLETTE SD PUBLIC

SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOF AND WINDOWS OF HOUSE AND
VEHICLES

&&

$$

CALDERON

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KICT [180058]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 180058
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
758 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0756 PM HAIL ROSE HILL 37.57N 97.13W
08/17/2011 E0.75 INCH BUTLER KS EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

VJP

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KICT [180054]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 180054
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
753 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0751 PM TSTM WND GST ROSE HILL 37.57N 97.13W
08/17/2011 E60 MPH BUTLER KS TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATES 55 TO 60 MPH WINDS.

&&

$$

VJP

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KUNR [180051]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 180051
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
651 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0627 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 7 NE MISSION 43.38N 100.56W
08/17/2011 TODD SD LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SIGHTED

&&

$$

CALDERON

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KUNR [180049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 180049
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
649 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM HAIL WHITE RIVER 43.57N 100.74W
08/17/2011 E1.25 INCH MELLETTE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

STILL HAILING AT THIS TIME

&&

$$

CALDERON

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KICT [180046]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 180046
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
746 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0737 PM TSTM WND GST DERBY 37.55N 97.26W
08/17/2011 M58 MPH SEDGWICK KS EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

VJP

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KUNR [180045]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 180045
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
645 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM TSTM WND GST WHITE RIVER 43.57N 100.74W
08/17/2011 M51 MPH MELLETTE SD MESONET

SDSU MESONET SITE

&&

$$

CALDERON

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KICT [180044]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 180044
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
744 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0736 PM TSTM WND GST 2 SE DERBY 37.53N 97.23W
08/17/2011 E75 MPH SEDGWICK KS TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATES WINDS OF 70 TO 75 MPH.

&&

$$

VJP

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180040
SWODY1
SPC AC 180039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SD/NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN CO...

...SD/NEB...

SCATTERED SUPERCELL ACTIVITY THAT HAS EVOLVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SCNTRL SD INTO CHERRY COUNTY NEB HAS STRUGGLED TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT
MOVE EAST THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A SWD
PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT ATOP LLJ THAT SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. LATEST RADAR DATA STRONGLY SUGGESTS SEVERAL SEVERE
UPDRAFTS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL ACROSS MELLETTE COUNTY SD AND OVER SRN
CHERRY/NRN HOOKER COUNTY NEB. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND UPDRAFTS
GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

...SERN CO...

SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS A SMALL PART OF THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OVER SERN CO...PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS OF THE WRN OK
PANHANDLE BY 04-05Z. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ACROSS
PUEBLO/OTERO/KIOWA COUNTIES AND ARE SURGING SEWD AT ROUGHLY 25KT.
THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND THE 01Z OUTLOOK
WILL REFLECT THIS SECONDARY SEVERE THREAT WITHIN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
REGIME. REF LATEST SWOMCD FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
(HTTP://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/MD/MD1997.HTML)

..DARROW.. 08/18/2011

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 784

WWUS20 KWNS 180036
SEL4
SPC WW 180036
COZ000-180400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 784
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
635 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST COLORADO

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM 635 PM UNTIL 1000 PM MDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF LA JUNTA COLORADO TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LAMAR
COLORADO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 783...

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED INTO AN ARCING
LINE APPROACHING THE AR RIVER VALLEY AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG
INTERSECTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MOIST UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A
DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL AS THE LINE MOVES SEWD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29020.

...WEISS

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KICT [180020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 180020
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
719 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0716 PM TSTM WND GST CLEARWATER 37.51N 97.50W
08/17/2011 E70 MPH SEDGWICK KS TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 70 MPH WINDS HAVING BEEN AFFECTING
CLEARWATER FOR ABOUT 15 MINUTES NOW. A TRAINED SPOTTER
REPORTED A LARGE MATURE TREE UPROOTED.

&&

$$

ADK

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1997

ACUS11 KWNS 180019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180019
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-180115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1997
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO / FAR SWRN KS / OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 180019Z - 180115Z

SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS SERN CO AND PERHAPS AS FAR SE AS THE OK PANHANDLE AND EXTREME
SWRN KS. IF SHORT TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE REGARDING
UPSCALE GROWTH...A SMALL WW MAY ADDRESS THIS THREAT. POSSIBILITY OF
A WW 50 PERCENT.

SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE N SIDE OF A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS IS PROVIDING A MOIST/UNSTABLE FETCH OF HIGHER THETA-E INTO
THE REGION. STRONGLY VEERING SHEAR PROFILES /4 KM AGL WINDS 25 KTS
PER KPUX/ WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THE DEGREE OF UPSCALE GROWTH THAT THE CURRENT LINEAR STORM
CLUSTER MAY ENACT OVER THE NEXT HOUR. IF THIS OCCURS...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DESPITE SOME DIURNAL COOLING...MAY CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE.

..SMITH.. 08/18/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36710254 37060324 38150446 38470453 38750327 38460226
37780168 36870175 36710254

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KICT [180018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 180018
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
718 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0714 PM TSTM WND GST 1 SE CLEARWATER 37.50N 97.49W
08/17/2011 E70.00 MPH SEDGWICK KS TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATES AT LEAST 70 MPH WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN WITH GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITY.

&&

$$

VJP

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KLBF [180018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 180018
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
718 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0715 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 15 WNW MULLEN 42.12N 101.31W
08/17/2011 CHERRY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JAHSENMA

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KICT [180010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 180010
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
710 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0707 PM TSTM WND GST 4 S CLEARWATER 37.45N 97.50W
08/17/2011 E70 MPH SUMNER KS TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATES 70 MPH WINDS WITH PEA SIZED
HAIL.

&&

$$

VJP

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KUNR [180008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KUNR 180008
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
607 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 4 SW MIDLAND 44.03N 101.21W
08/17/2011 E2.00 INCH HAAKON SD PUBLIC

0502 PM HAIL 5 SSE MISSION 43.24N 100.62W
08/17/2011 E1.75 INCH TODD SD PUBLIC

0515 PM HAIL 3 WSW WHITE RIVER 43.55N 100.80W
08/17/2011 E1.00 INCH MELLETTE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0525 PM HAIL 9 ENE BELVIDERE 43.88N 101.10W
08/17/2011 E2.50 INCH JACKSON SD PUBLIC

0530 PM TSTM WND GST 10 NE BELVIDERE 43.94N 101.13W
08/17/2011 M50.00 MPH JACKSON SD MESONET

0537 PM HAIL 8 NE BELVIDERE 43.92N 101.16W
08/17/2011 E2.75 INCH JACKSON SD LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL CAUSING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO VEHICLES ON INTERSTATE
90.

&&

THIS TABLE LISTS THE REPORTS BY HAIL SIZE OR WIND SPEED OR RAIN
AMOUNT...AND MAY NOT NECESSARILY BE THE FINAL HAIL SIZE OR WIND
SPEED OR RAIN AMOUNT FOR THAT LOCATION.

HAIL REPORTS LISTED BY SIZE (INCHES)

SIZE LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
2.75 8 NE BELVIDERE SD JACKSON 0537 PM
HAIL CAUSING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO VEHICLES
ON INTERSTATE 90.
2.50 9 ENE BELVIDERE SD JACKSON 0525 PM
2.00 4 SW MIDLAND SD HAAKON 0445 PM
1.75 5 SSE MISSION SD TODD 0502 PM
1.00 3 WSW WHITE RIVER SD MELLETTE 0515 PM

TSTM WIND REPORTS LISTED BY SPEED (MPH)

SPEED LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
50.00 10 NE BELVIDERE SD JACKSON 0530 PM

$$

CALDERON

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KUNR [180007]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KUNR 180007
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
607 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 4 SW MIDLAND 44.03N 101.21W
08/17/2011 E2.00 INCH HAAKON SD PUBLIC

0502 PM HAIL 5 SSE MISSION 43.24N 100.62W
08/17/2011 E1.75 INCH TODD SD PUBLIC

0515 PM HAIL 3 WSW WHITE RIVER 43.55N 100.80W
08/17/2011 E1.00 INCH MELLETTE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0525 PM HAIL 9 ENE BELVIDERE 43.88N 101.10W
08/17/2011 E2.50 INCH JACKSON SD PUBLIC

0530 PM TSTM WND GST 10 NE BELVIDERE 43.94N 101.13W
08/17/2011 M50.00 MPH JACKSON SD MESONET

0537 PM HAIL 8 NE BELVIDERE 43.92N 101.16W
08/17/2011 E2.75 INCH JACKSON SD LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL CAUSING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO VEHICLES ON INTERSTATE
90.

&&

$$

CALDERON

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KICT [180003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 180003
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
703 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0658 PM TSTM WND GST VIOLA 37.48N 97.64W
08/17/2011 E75 MPH SEDGWICK KS FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

VIOLA FIRE DEPARTMENT ESTIMATES 65 TO 75 MPH WINDS AND
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO AN EIGHTH OF A MILE.

&&

$$

VJP

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KICT [172358]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 172358
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
658 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0652 PM TSTM WND GST 1 SE CLEARWATER 37.50N 97.49W
08/17/2011 E60.00 MPH SEDGWICK KS TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER ESTIMATES 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS.

0652 PM TSTM WND GST VIOLA 37.48N 97.64W
08/17/2011 E60.00 MPH SEDGWICK KS FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

VIOLA FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS AT LEAST 60 MILE PER HOUR
WINDS.

0655 PM TSTM WND GST CLEARWATER 37.51N 97.50W
08/17/2011 E60.00 MPH SEDGWICK KS FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

CLEARWATER FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTS AT LEAST 60 MPH WINDS.

0655 PM TSTM WND GST CLEARWATER 37.51N 97.50W
08/17/2011 E60.00 MPH SEDGWICK KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

VJP

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KUNR [172356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 172356
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
556 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM TSTM WND GST 10 NE BELVIDERE 43.94N 101.13W
08/17/2011 M50 MPH JACKSON SD MESONET

&&

$$

CALDERON

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KUNR [172355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 172355
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
554 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0502 PM HAIL 5 SSE MISSION 43.24N 100.62W
08/17/2011 E1.75 INCH TODD SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

CALDERON

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KUNR [172340]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 172340
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
540 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0537 PM HAIL 8 NE BELVIDERE 43.92N 101.16W
08/17/2011 E2.75 INCH JACKSON SD LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL CAUSING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO VEHICLES ON INTERSTATE
90.

&&

$$

CALDERON

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KLBF [172340]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 172340
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
640 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0621 PM HAIL 36 NW MULLEN 42.41N 101.54W
08/17/2011 E1.25 INCH CHERRY NE POST OFFICE

&&

$$

JAHSENMA

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KUNR [172334]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 172334
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
534 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM HAIL 3 WSW WHITE RIVER 43.55N 100.80W
08/17/2011 E1.00 INCH MELLETTE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CALDERON

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KEPZ [172333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 172333
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
533 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0532 PM TSTM WND GST EL PASO 31.78N 106.48W
08/17/2011 M60 MPH EL PASO TX BROADCAST MEDIA

60 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED NEAR MONTWOOD AND LEE TREVINO
STREETS IN EAST EL PASO

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1100350

$$

LUNDEEN

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KLBF [172329]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 172329
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
629 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HAIL 36 NNW MULLEN 42.52N 101.31W
08/17/2011 E2.50 INCH CHERRY NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

JAHSENMA

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KUNR [172327]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 172327
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
527 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 PM HAIL 9 ENE BELVIDERE 43.88N 101.10W
08/17/2011 E2.50 INCH JACKSON SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

CALDERON

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KMFL [172323]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 172323
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
722 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 10 NW PAHOKEE 26.90N 80.79W
08/17/2011 M39 MPH AMZ610 FL MESONET

A THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 34 KTS...OR 39 MPH...WAS
RECORDED BY A MESONET STATION LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

0645 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 11 SE BRIGHTON SEMINOLE 26.96N 80.94W
08/17/2011 M39 MPH AMZ610 FL MESONET

A THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST OF 34 KTS...OR 39 MPH...WAS
RECORDED BY A MESONET STATION NEAR THE WEST END OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

&&

$$

ROSS

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KUNR [172303]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 172303
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
503 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM HAIL 4 SW MIDLAND 44.03N 101.21W
08/17/2011 E2.00 INCH HAAKON SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

CALDERON

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1996

ACUS11 KWNS 172243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172243
SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-172345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1996
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN SD...WRN NEB...WRN KS AND ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 783...

VALID 172243Z - 172345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 783
CONTINUES.

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SWRN-S CENTRAL SD...PART OF WRN NEB INTO FAR NERN
CO. PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY...COUPLE OF STORMS HAVE TENDED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY /OVER CHERRY AND DEUEL COUNTIES NEB/. GIVEN
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE NRN EXTENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY/40-50
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR INTO NRN/CENTRAL SD...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED TO
INCLUDE MORE OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SD.

...SD AND NEB...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AND STREAMLINE ANALYSES SHOWED A WIND SHIFT/ZONE OF
CONFLUENCE EXTENDING FROM ERN CO /EL PASO COUNTY/ NEWD THROUGH NERN
CO TO WRN NEB /DEUEL TO CHERRY COUNTIES/ AND INTO SWRN-S CENTRAL SD.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING INVOF
THIS SSW-NNE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH STRONGEST AND MORE
ROBUST UPDRAFTS LOCATED ACROSS WRN NEB INTO SRN SD. THIS ACTIVITY
IS LOCATED WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW
AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPARENT MIDLEVEL IMPULSE /PER RUC
ANALYSIS/ ADVANCING ESEWD INTO WRN SD/NEB. SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS
ALONG AND E OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FEED
OF MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE DEVELOPING STORMS. THIS
COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 45-55 KT WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

...ERN CO...
FARTHER S ACROSS ERN CO...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED
STORMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ROBUST UPDRAFTS. THIS MAY
BE DUE TO SOME INCREASE IN CAPPING PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATING
WAA PER WLY MIDLEVEL WINDS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ESPECIALLY OVER
NERN CO. THUS...STORM COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED DUE TO THE
CAPPING ISSUES ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CO /WITHIN WW 783 AND SWD INTO
SERN CO/ WHERE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 40-50 KT SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION.

..PETERS.. 08/17/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...
BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 44600117 44609957 43519943 41909979 40910006 38680018
37720128 37010202 37050361 37030429 37800472 38550503
38860504 39300410 39620372 40950348 41210266 43050286
43200232 44660211 44600117

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KEPZ [172230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 172230
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
430 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM FLASH FLOOD EL PASO 31.78N 106.48W
08/17/2011 EL PASO TX BROADCAST MEDIA

HEAVY FLOODING AT WEDGEWOOD AND MCRAE STREETS AND ALSO
MONTWOOD AND YARBROUGH STREETS

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1100349

$$

LUNDEEN

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KDDC [172213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 172213
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
511 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 NW PROTECTION 37.28N 99.56W
08/17/2011 E2.00 INCH CLARK KS PUBLIC

THE RAIN LASTED FROM 310 PM UNTIL 4 PM.

&&

$$

LEE

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KEPZ [172208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KEPZ 172208
LSREPZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
408 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM FLOOD EL PASO 31.78N 106.48W
08/17/2011 EL PASO TX TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER OVER STREET CURB IN YARBOROUGH MONTWOOD AREA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER EPZ1100348

$$

FK

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KAPX [172125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 172125
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
524 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0519 PM HEAVY RAIN SAULT STE. MARIE 46.48N 84.37W
08/17/2011 M1.41 INCH CHIPPEWA MI ASOS

12 HR TOTAL THRU 5 PM.

0519 PM HEAVY RAIN SAULT STE. MARIE 46.48N 84.37W
08/17/2011 M1.30 INCH CHIPPEWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

8 HR TOTAL THRU 5 PM.

&&

$$

SCHWARTZ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1995

ACUS11 KWNS 172045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172044
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-172215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1995
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN IL...FAR NERN MO...FAR ERN IA...FAR SRN
WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 172044Z - 172215Z

A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DMGG WIND GUSTS AND/OR LARGE HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE ANTICIPATED ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

MID-AFTERNOON SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
SWRN WI INTO CNTRL IA...ACROSS WHICH A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT
EXISTS -- I.E. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN ITS
WAKE AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S PRECEDING IT. A PREFRONTAL WIND
SHIFT AXIS LIES NEAR THE IL/IA BORDER...SEPARATING NWLY FLOW TO ITS
WEST FROM FLOW WITH MORE OF A SLY COMPONENT TO ITS EAST. MODIFIED
12Z DAVENPORT RAOB FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS SUGGESTS MLCAPE VALUES ON
THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG INVOF THE WIND SHIFT AXIS...ALONG WHICH
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE AFOREMENTIONED
BUOYANCY COMBINED WITH 30-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR BENEATH A
MID-LEVEL WNWLY/NWLY SPEED MAX OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR DMGG WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...SFC OBS...ALONG WITH DAVENPORT/ST LOUIS/CHICAGO VWP
DATA...DEPICT WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION -- I.E. WIND
SPEEDS AOB 10 KT BELOW THE 1-KM-AGL-LEVEL -- OFFERING RATHER WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC FEATURES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
STORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE. FURTHERMORE...THE SHALLOW/WEAK NATURE
OF THE CONVERGENCE AND RECENT INFLUX OF A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOULD MITIGATE THE SVR POTENTIAL...WITH THE SVR
THREAT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED.

..COHEN.. 08/17/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...

LAT...LON 41458760 40318817 39338952 39159068 39479139 40249180
40879154 42349026 42698873 42458779 41458760

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 783

WWUS20 KWNS 172041
SEL3
SPC WW 172041
COZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-180300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 783
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM MDT WED AUG 17 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST COLORADO
NORTHWEST KANSAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL
900 PM MDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF VALENTINE NEBRASKA TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF BURLINGTON
COLORADO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING IN NE CO...AND NEW
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FARTHER N
ACROSS NEB/SD ALONG THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH. WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT INVOF NW
KS/SW NEB WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND 0-1 KM SRH
WILL APPROACH 100 M2/S2. LATER THIS EVENING...STORM MERGERS COULD
LEAD TO UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR TWO SMALL CLUSTERS...WITH AN
ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29020.

...THOMPSON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 172002
SWODY1
SPC AC 172000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...

THE FIRST CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK AT 20Z IS TO ADD A 5 PERCENT WIND
DAMAGE AND HAIL PROBABILITY ACROSS ERN UPPER MI AND NRN LAKE MI
WHERE A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING. THE
SECOND CHANGE IS TO TRIM THE FAR WRN EDGE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THE THIRD CHANGE IS TO
CONNECT THE 5 PERCENT WIND DAMAGE PROBABILITY FROM OK TO IL ALONG AN
AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT INITIATE ALONG THIS
AXIS MAY HAVE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAINLY DUE TO THE STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. OTHERWISE...THE ONLY OTHER CHANGES
ARE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE THUNDER-LINES.

..BROYLES.. 08/17/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2011/

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS NOW ESTABLISHED FROM ERN CO NWD TO
WRN NEB. 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER ABOVE THE MOIST UPSLOPE...SUCH THAT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S
WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE APPROACHING 2500 J/KG. 50-70 KT WLY FLOW
ALOFT IS ALSO PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHICH COMBINED
WITH THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FEW
STORMS WILL FORM AROUND MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT
FROM THE NEB/WY BORDER SWD INTO NE CO AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
DIMINISHES.

LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT MAY
BE TEMPERED BY TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS APPROACHING 30 F AND
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR AND JUST E OF THE LEE TROUGH
WHERE STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM. OTHERWISE...A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING IF STORM MERGERS LEAD TO
SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO. A NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW AND WAA SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT.

...NW IL/ERN MO THIS AFTERNOON...
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD FROM NRN MO/ERN IA/SRN WI
TO NW IL AND ERN MO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A BAND OF
MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT AND SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD
BREAKS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1500 J/KG ACROSS NW IL TO
2000 J/KG ACROSS E CENTRAL MO. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
WEAK...WNWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 35-50 KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED/POSSIBLY SUPERCELLULAR STORM
STRUCTURES. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

...CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON...
DAYTIME HEATING INLAND OVER THE FL PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION NEAR TAMPA BAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND INVOF OF A DIFFUSE REMNANT FRONT...WHERE NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER
STORMS WILL ALSO FORM ALONG THE E COAST SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO THE COAST IN A WEAK WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME S OF THE
REMNANT FRONT. MLCAPE APPROACHING 3000 J/KG AND PW NEAR 2 INCHES
WILL SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND PRECIPITATION LOADING...WHILE DCAPE
NEAR 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1994

ACUS11 KWNS 172000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172000
SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-172200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1994
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN SD...WRN NEB...NE CO AND FAR NW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 172000Z - 172200Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT
COULD REQUIRE A WW LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION REMAINS UNCLEAR...AND
IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY IN SUPPORT
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING NEAR THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...IN THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONSIDERABLE INHIBITION
FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS LINGERS...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE IN THE
PROCESS OF WEAKENING ALONG AN AXIS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING EAST
OF SIDNEY NEB NORTHWARD THROUGH AREAS NEAR/WEST OF PHILIP SD. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL DATA ARE CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THE
INITIATION OF SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH ADDITIONAL INSOLATION
ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA DURING THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. ONCE STORMS
FORM...MODESTLY STRONG AND SHEARED WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...PRIMARILY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 08/17/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39810334 41040365 42950310 43860262 44680247 45320201
45430105 44030020 43610030 42720050 39780134 39390265
39810334

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KLBF [171955]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 171955
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
255 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0758 PM TORNADO 8 NNW AINSWORTH 42.66N 99.92W
08/11/2011 BROWN NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFF DEPUTY REPORTED BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN AN
OPEN FIELD WITH NO DAMAGE

&&

$$

TKECK

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1993

ACUS11 KWNS 171949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171949
MIZ000-172045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1993
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UPPER MI...FAR NRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 171949Z - 172045Z

A SMALL THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS ERN UPPER MI AND
FAR NRN LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG A
BOUNDARY REPRESENTING THE MERGED EFFECTS OF PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE
AND A LAKE BREEZE GENERATED OFF OF THE NRN EXTENT OF LAKE MI. ASCENT
IS BEING AUGMENTED BY A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX CURRENTLY CROSSING LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION WILL ONLY BE
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG STORMS GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
500 J/KG. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 25 TO 35 KT
DRIVEN BY A ZONE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW INVOF THE VORT MAX COULD
RESULT IN OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES YIELDING A
THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. WHILE AN ISOLATED...MARGINAL
SVR STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...THE SPATIOTEMPORAL THREAT
WILL BE VERY MINIMAL...AND A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

..COHEN.. 08/17/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...

LAT...LON 46038372 45738422 45708531 45978607 46278557 46458456
46398407 46038372

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KMLB [171919]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMLB 171919
LSRMLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
319 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0303 PM TSTM WND GST SANFORD 28.79N 81.28W
08/17/2011 M49 MPH SEMINOLE FL ASOS

KSFB MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 43 KT/49 MPH.

&&

$$

FXD

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KTWC [171911]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KTWC 171911
LSRTWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1211 PM MST WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG TUCSON 32.24N 110.94W
08/16/2011 PIMA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

POWER POLES BLOWN DOWN ON INA ROAD BETWEEN THORNYDALE
ROAD AND INTERSTATE 10.

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 S DOVE MOUNTAIN 32.43N 111.08W
08/16/2011 PIMA AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

PALO VERDE TREES DOWNED.

0420 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 SE MARANA 32.36N 111.11W
08/16/2011 PIMA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

MESQUITE TREE DOWN AT SILVERBELL RD AND CONTINENTAL
RESERVE LOOP WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL TREES DOWN IN
CONTINENTAL RESERVE AREA.

0420 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SE DOVE MOUNTAIN 32.45N 111.07W
08/16/2011 M1.05 INCH PIMA AZ PUBLIC

0420 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SE DOVE MOUNTAIN 32.44N 111.07W
08/16/2011 M1.52 INCH PIMA AZ PUBLIC

0420 PM HEAVY RAIN 7 SW ORO VALLEY 32.36N 111.06W
08/16/2011 M1.00 INCH PIMA AZ PUBLIC

0420 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 SE DOVE MOUNTAIN 32.45N 111.07W
08/16/2011 M1.05 INCH PIMA AZ PUBLIC

0420 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 SE MARANA 32.35N 111.09W
08/16/2011 M1.18 INCH PIMA AZ PUBLIC

0420 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 SE MARANA 32.35N 111.10W
08/16/2011 M1.65 INCH PIMA AZ PUBLIC

0420 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 SE MARANA 32.35N 111.10W
08/16/2011 PIMA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

LARGE TREE DOWNED PARTIALLY ON RESIDENCE.

0420 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 ESE MARANA 32.36N 111.07W
08/16/2011 PIMA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

TREES DOWN IN THE SUNSET POINT NEIGHBORHOOD NEAR CORTARO
FARMS RD AND STAR GRASS DR.

0420 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 SE MARANA 32.36N 111.09W
08/16/2011 PIMA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

FRAMED BUILDING BEING CONSTRUCTED COLLAPSED.

0425 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 ESE MARANA 32.37N 111.08W
08/16/2011 PIMA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

LARGE TREE UPROOTED NEAR EAGLESTONE LOOP.

0425 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 SW ORO VALLEY 32.35N 111.06W
08/16/2011 PIMA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

PALO VERDE TREE DOWNED ONTO PORCH.

0425 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 SW ORO VALLEY 32.34N 111.06W
08/16/2011 PIMA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

FENCE BLOWN DOWN ONTO CAR.

0425 PM TSTM WND GST 7 S DOVE MOUNTAIN 32.37N 111.07W
08/16/2011 E58.00 MPH PIMA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER WAS AT CORTARO AND INTERSTATE 10.

0425 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 SW ORO VALLEY 32.34N 111.05W
08/16/2011 PIMA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

LARGE TREE DOWN BLOCKING PART OF ONE LANE OF THORNYDALE
RD.

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 SW ORO VALLEY 32.34N 111.04W
08/16/2011 PIMA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN BUSINESS PARKING LOT WITH ONE TREE
FALLING ON A PARKED CAR.

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 SW ORO VALLEY 32.34N 111.06W
08/16/2011 PIMA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

LARGE TREE DOWNED ON RESIDENCE NEAR INA RD AND OLDFATHER
RD.

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 SW ORO VALLEY 32.34N 111.05W
08/16/2011 PIMA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

MESQUITE TREE SNAPPED IN HALF IN BUSINESS PARKING LOT
WITH BRANCHES FALLING ON TRUCK.

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 SW ORO VALLEY 32.35N 111.04W
08/16/2011 PIMA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

LARGE TREE DOWNED AT BUTTERFIELD ELEMENTARY SCHOOL.

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 SW ORO VALLEY 32.34N 111.04W
08/16/2011 PIMA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

LARGE TREE DOWN ON MEREDITH BLVD

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 SW ORO VALLEY 32.34N 111.06W
08/16/2011 PIMA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

LARGE TREE DOWN BLOCKING JUPITER ST.

0430 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 SW ORO VALLEY 32.34N 111.05W
08/16/2011 PIMA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

18 POWER POLES DOWN ALONG INA ROAD BETWEEN INTERSTATE 10
AND SHANNON ROAD. SEVERAL POLES BLOCKED INA ROAD WITH ONE
POLE ON A TRUCK. ADDITIONAL POLES FELL ONTO BUSINESSES
AND SIGNS.

0435 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 SW ORO VALLEY 32.33N 111.05W
08/16/2011 PIMA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

SEVERAL TREES DOWN NEAR THORNYDALE RD AND COSTCO DR.

0450 PM FLASH FLOOD TUCSON 32.24N 110.94W
08/16/2011 PIMA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

WATER FLOWING ACROSS HARTMANN ROAD NORTH OF CORTARO ROAD.

&&

$$

MINNICK

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1992

ACUS11 KWNS 171744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171743
FLZ000-172015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1992
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 171743Z - 172015Z

A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND
GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA.
THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT AND LACK OF CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

EARLY AFTERNOON SFC MESOANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL
A FEW FEATURES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z:

1. AN AGGREGATE OUTFLOW / WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LIES ESEWD
FROM 40 SW OCALA TO 30 SSW ORLANDO AND SWD TO 20 E FORT MYERS AND
SEWD TO 45 SW MIAMI. ONGOING CONVECTION WITHIN 15 NM EITHER SIDE OF
NRN PARTS OF THIS FEATURE WILL REACH AREAS FROM NEAR ORLANDO TOWARD
OCALA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEEPENS FROM INCIPIENT TOWERING CUMULUS GROWTH FARTHER SOUTH ALONG
THE BOUNDARY TOWARD AREAS SE OF NAPLES. INLAND HEATING BEHIND THE
ONGOING CONVECTION IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION FROM NEAR TAMPA TO SAINT PETERSBURG...WHICH COULD
ALSO FOCUS CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

2. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN DEFINITION
FROM NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TOWARD MIAMI...WITH SFC OBS ALONG THE
COASTAL ZONE SUGGESTING A RECENT WIND SHIFT TO ONSHORE. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS AMPLE
INSOLATION CONTRIBUTES TO BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.

3. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA AND
PENETRATING WELL INTO THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ALSO PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT SFC CONVERGENCE FOR TSTM INITIATION.

MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA INDICATE THAT MLCAPE
VALUES HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 2500-3500 J/KG OWING TO SFC
TEMPERATURES HAVING CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS
WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTION...WITH DCAPE VALUES REACHING NEAR
1000 J/KG SUPPORTING WET MICROBURSTS WITH COLLAPSING CONVECTION.
THIS THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED BY WATER LOADING PROCESSES OWING TO PW
VALUES OF 1.8 TO 2.2 INCHES PER RAOBS AND GPS DATA.
HOWEVER...LOWER/MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW UNDER 15 KT PER AREA VWP
DATA WILL FAVOR VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...AND ANY
INSTANCES OF SVR THREAT WOULD BE HIGHLY SPORADIC.

..COHEN.. 08/17/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 25368079 25808139 26208173 26968222 27698251 28408258
29048262 29548324 30108333 30348265 30198157 29318093
28368054 27458020 25718016 25368079

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 171720
SWODY2
SPC AC 171718

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN PLAINS...UPPER-MS
VALLEY...CNTRL PLAINS...MID MO VALLEY AND NRN OZARKS...

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY/MID MO VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE THURSDAY ACROSS THE CNTRL
ROCKIES WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW LOCATED FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO
THE MID MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A
BROAD ZONE OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST BY MID-DAY
ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...UPPER MS VALLEY SEWD INTO THE
OZARKS AND MID MS VALLEY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO BE
MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BUT POCKETS OF SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE SEWD
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SHOULD PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING AS A FRAGMENTED LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE REGION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOW THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY
FROM CNTRL NEB NNEWD THROUGH ERN SD INTO WRN MN WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM 2500 TO 4000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...MODERATE TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AS
MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES DUE TO A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ESEWD OUT OF THE TOP OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE
INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR A
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF SD AND MN EXTENDING SWD INTO THE OMAHA
AREA FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...THE
DOMINANT STORM MODE MAY DEPEND ON WHETHER STORMS LINE OUT ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAN PERSIST...THEN THE
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD AID A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. THE
HAIL THREAT WOULD BE GREATEST IN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY IS
MAXIMIZED. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY WITH IF
A LINEAR MCS CAN DEVELOP AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
THURSDAY EVENING. A TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP BUT THIS
THREAT SHOULD BE CLOSELY TIED TO HOW MANY STORMS CAN REMAIN
DISCRETE. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUGGESTING THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST
FROM NCNTRL SD SEWD INTO ERN NEB AND WRN IA WHERE AN ENHANCED SEVERE
THREAT MAY BE WARRANTED IN THE OUTLOOK. ATTM...WILL DEFER AN UPGRADE
TO 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY TO LATER OUTLOOKS. NEW MODEL RUNS
SHOULD HELP BETTER PINPOINT THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF AN ENHANCED SEVERE
THREAT.

FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...OZARKS AND MID MS
VALLEY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z THURSDAY SHOW MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING THE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY IF A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CAN
ORGANIZE AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 08/17/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171629
SWODY1
SPC AC 171627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IS NOW ESTABLISHED FROM ERN CO NWD TO
WRN NEB. 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER ABOVE THE MOIST UPSLOPE...SUCH THAT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S
WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE APPROACHING 2500 J/KG. 50-70 KT WLY FLOW
ALOFT IS ALSO PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WHICH COMBINED
WITH THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FEW
STORMS WILL FORM AROUND MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT
FROM THE NEB/WY BORDER SWD INTO NE CO AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
DIMINISHES.

LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT MAY
BE TEMPERED BY TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS APPROACHING 30 F AND
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR AND JUST E OF THE LEE TROUGH
WHERE STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM. OTHERWISE...A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING IF STORM MERGERS LEAD TO
SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO. A NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW AND WAA SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT.

...NW IL/ERN MO THIS AFTERNOON...
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD FROM NRN MO/ERN IA/SRN WI
TO NW IL AND ERN MO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A BAND OF
MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT AND SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD
BREAKS WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1500 J/KG ACROSS NW IL TO
2000 J/KG ACROSS E CENTRAL MO. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
WEAK...WNWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW OF 35-50 KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED/POSSIBLY SUPERCELLULAR STORM
STRUCTURES. A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

...CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON...
DAYTIME HEATING INLAND OVER THE FL PENINSULA WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION NEAR TAMPA BAY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND INVOF OF A DIFFUSE REMNANT FRONT...WHERE NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER
STORMS WILL ALSO FORM ALONG THE E COAST SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO THE COAST IN A WEAK WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME S OF THE
REMNANT FRONT. MLCAPE APPROACHING 3000 J/KG AND PW NEAR 2 INCHES
WILL SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND PRECIPITATION LOADING...WHILE DCAPE
NEAR 1000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 08/17/2011

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KDMX [171351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDMX 171351
LSRDMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
851 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 AM HEAVY RAIN CRESTON 41.06N 94.36W
08/16/2011 M4.92 INCH UNION IA BROADCAST MEDIA

4.92 INCHES OF RAIN FROM 4AM-845AM

&&

$$

JB

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 171245
SWODY1
SPC AC 171243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP CYCLONE OVER SCNTRL CANADA WILL CONTINUE EAST WITH STRONGEST
HEIGHT FALLS AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OCCURRING PRIMARILY
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A BELT OF
ZONAL/WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50KT WILL EXIST FROM THE NRN GREAT
BASIN AND ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...TO THE NORTH OF A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN CANADA WAS SITUATED FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST SWWD TO KS AND THEN WWD AND NWWD...BANKED UP INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS/FRONT RANGE. A NUMBER OF WEAK PRESSURE TROUGHS AND RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRECEDE THE DEEPER STALLED SYNOPTIC
FRONT...FROM KS SOUTH ACROSS OK/TX/NM...BENEATH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT.

EXPECT DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED
WITHIN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SRN ROCKIES AND
MEXICAN ESCARPMENT TODAY. THE FRONT RANGE/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AND
SRN PLAINS WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN A NARROW WINDOW OF SPACE AND TIME
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT MAKES SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
A MOIST POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS AND SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN AN
AXIS OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION FROM NERN NM ACROSS ERN CO AND INTO
THE NEB PANHANDLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SBCAPE VALUES IN THIS
CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 2000 J/KG BENEATH A MODEST CAP. WHILE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE SUBTLE/WEAK...IT DOES APPEAR
THAT A WEAK PERTURBATION MAY BE MOVING EAST AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS...OVER NV/UT THIS MORNING. BACKGROUND ASCENT WITH THIS
IMPULSE...COMBINED WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND PERSISTENT
CONVERGENCE NEAR RESIDUAL FRONT...FROM ERN CO/WY INTO NEB...SHOULD
PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE
INITIATION IS UNDERWAY...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS AS WEAK LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW IS TOPPED BY UP TO
40KT OF WLY TO WNWLY FLOW. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT AMONGST LATEST GUIDANCE IS SITUATED FROM NERN CO INTO
NEB IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME...AND THEN INTO WRN KS DURING THE
00-03Z TIME PERIOD. THE NW FLOW/HIGH PLAINS PATTERN APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL
AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES INITIALLY...THEN EVENING/LATE NIGHT
EVOLUTION INTO AN MCS OR TWO FROM SRN NEB ACROSS KS.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS/NERN NM ACROSS KS/OK...
LESS PERSISTENT AND MORE WIDELY SPACED STORMS APPEAR LIKELY FROM
NERN NM ACROSS KS/OK COINCIDENT WITH MAX HEATING NEAR RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES...AND WITHIN/NEAR POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY GIVEN
SOME AREAS OF CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING. WEAKER FLOW FIELDS ACROSS
THESE AREAS SUGGEST GENERALLY PULSE STORMS POSING A BRIEF THREAT FOR
STRONG TO DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.

...MIDWEST...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY OPEN FOR A COUPLE
OF STRONGER STORMS ACROSS IL/IND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THESE
AREAS LATER TODAY. INSTABILITY WITHIN THE ZONE OF FRONTAL LIFT WILL
BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM DRIER/MORE STABLE REGIME
ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE. ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY
WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS
OUTLOOK.

..CARBIN/GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 08/17/2011

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KTWC [171125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTWC 171125
LSRTWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
425 AM MST WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0415 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 S DOVE MOUNTAIN 32.43N 111.08W
08/16/2011 PIMA AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

PALO VERDE TREES DOWNED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1100076

$$

MINNICK

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 170857
SWOD48
SPC AC 170856

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DESPITE OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN EVOLUTION
TOWARD A WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO SMALLER-SCALE DETAILS --
PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO LOCATION OF MAJOR SURFACE FEATURES.

EVEN GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES HOWEVER...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL/WIDESPREAD
SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EVIDENT ATTM THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE...WHICH
-- COMBINED WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT -- PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF ANY
SEVERE THREAT AREAS THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 08/17/2011

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170729
SWODY3
SPC AC 170727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
U.S....

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THIS
PERIOD...AS WEAK TROUGHS REMAIN OVER BOTH THE WRN AND ERN
COASTS...WITH A RIDGE IN BETWEEN -- CENTERED OVER THE S CENTRAL AND
SWRN CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST. AS THE FRONT MOVES SWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- REINFORCING THE PRIOR BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THIS AREA...THIS REGION SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR MORE
CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE/SEVERE WEATHER THIS PERIOD.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO KS/NEB...
WHILE IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION -- AND LIMITED SEVERE THREAT --
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS...GREATEST THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREADING INTO
LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO THE EVENING.

ACROSS THIS AREA...ELY UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE KS
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT AS
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAXIMIZES. CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/LONGEVITY
WILL BE AIDED BY 30 TO 40 KT NWLYS AT MID LEVELS...OVERRIDING THE
LOW-LEVEL SELYS TO PROVIDE FAVORABLY SHEARED FLOW WITH HEIGHT.

AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING...SEWD MOVEMENT OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN APPEARS LIKELY AS A LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A SEWD SPREAD OF THE WIND/HAIL THREAT INTO KS AND
VICINITY...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..GOSS.. 08/17/2011

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KDDC [170620]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 170620
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
120 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1259 AM TSTM WND GST SYRACUSE 37.98N 101.75W
08/17/2011 M69.00 MPH HAMILTON KS AWOS

0110 AM TSTM WND GST SYRACUSE 37.98N 101.75W
08/17/2011 M63.00 MPH HAMILTON KS AWOS

&&

$$

GERARD

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