MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1998

ACUS11 KWNS 180218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180218
SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-180315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1998
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0918 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD...PARTS OF CENTRAL-SWRN NEB...AND FAR NWRN
KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 783...

VALID 180218Z - 180315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 783
CONTINUES.

LOCAL WFO AREAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF WW 783 IS POSSIBLE OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEB.

THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT /PRIMARILY DUE TO LARGE HAIL/
SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL SD /ERN TODD AND SRN TRIPP
COUNTIES/ AND MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEB /FAR NERN CHERRY...KEYA
PAHA...BROWN...AND ROCK COUNTIES/. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT SRN SD
BY 03Z AND MAY AFFECT NRN NEB THROUGH 04-05Z.

OTHERWISE...AT 02Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE STRONG-SEVERE
STORM THAT HAD MOVED SWD OUT OF SRN CHERRY COUNTY NEB HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY OVER MCPHERSON COUNTY NEB...WHILE A SIMILAR TREND IS
OCCURRING WITH THE CHASE COUNTY NEB STORM.

THERMODYNAMICALLY...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED STRENGTHENING
SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION...GIVEN THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND
THE MIDLEVEL CAP /AROUND 700 MB/ PER 00Z LBF SOUNDING ARE RESULTING
IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NERN EXTENT OF WW 783 WHERE A
LOCAL WFO EXTENSION IN AREA AND TIME IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 04-05Z.
01Z RUC SUGGESTS THE OVERALL LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION WILL DECREASE
BY 05Z.

..PETERS.. 08/18/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 43730081 43729966 42829936 41979958 41799981 41720024
40960021 40100060 39870115 39730202 40000220 41420176
42460128 43510088 43730081

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