DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250037
SWODY1
SPC AC 250035

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2012

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NERN KS...NRN MO...IL...SRN IND...WRN KY...
GPS PW SENSORS INDICATE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NEWD INTO ERN
KS AND MO WITH VALUES OF 1.10 - 1.30 INCHES. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
INTENSIFY FURTHER TO OVER 50 KT WITH LIFT FOCUSED FROM NERN KS INTO
NRN MO LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MOISTENING AND A
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION BETWEEN 03-06Z. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS ACROSS NEB
AND KS INDICATE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WHICH WILL FAVOR HAIL...AND
ALSO COLD DOWNDRAFTS. WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 40-50 KT IN THE
850-500 MB LAYER...STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS MAY OCCUR DESPITE COOL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

..JEWELL.. 09/25/2012

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KAPX [242328]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 242328
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
727 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0539 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW GAYLORD 45.02N 84.70W
09/24/2012 M37 MPH OTSEGO MI ASOS

REPORTED AT ASOS STATION GLR


0431 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E NORWOOD 45.24N 85.32W
09/24/2012 M39 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI MESONET

REPORTED AT APRSWXNET STATION C3642


0408 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE EMPIRE 44.80N 86.05W
09/24/2012 M36 MPH LEELANAU MI MESONET

REPORTED AT RAWS STATION SBDM4


0354 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW WATERS 44.91N 84.72W
09/24/2012 M35 MPH OTSEGO MI MESONET

REPORTED AT APRSWXNET STATION D5664


0335 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MACKINAC ISLAND 45.87N 84.64W
09/24/2012 M43 MPH MACKINAC MI AWOS

REPORTED AT AWOS STATION MCD


0330 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSW ALPENA 45.05N 83.45W
09/24/2012 M37 MPH ALPENA MI MESONET

REPORTED AT MARITIME STATION APNM4


0314 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW KINCHELOE 46.24N 84.51W
09/24/2012 M43 MPH CHIPPEWA MI MESONET

REPORTED AT RAWS STATION RYDM4


0305 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S CATHRO 45.08N 83.56W
09/24/2012 M37 MPH ALPENA MI ASOS

REPORTED AT ASOS STATION APN


0253 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SW GAYLORD 45.01N 84.70W
09/24/2012 M39 MPH OTSEGO MI MESONET

REPORTED AT NONFEDAWOS STATION KGLR


0245 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSW ALPENA 45.05N 83.45W
09/24/2012 M35 MPH ALPENA MI MESONET

REPORTED AT MARITIME STATION APNM4


0240 PM NON-TSTM WND GST NAUBINWAY 46.11N 85.45W
09/24/2012 M43.00 MPH MACKINAC MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

REPORTED FROM NABM4


0214 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSW ROGERS CITY 45.41N 83.81W
09/24/2012 M36 MPH PRESQUE ISLE MI AWOS

REPORTED AT AWOS STATION PZQ


0212 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N CHEBOYGAN 45.65N 84.47W
09/24/2012 M40 MPH CHEBOYGAN MI MESONET

REPORTED AT MQT_MESO STATION CYGM4


0204 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WSW RACO 46.36N 84.80W
09/24/2012 M38 MPH CHIPPEWA MI MESONET

REPORTED AT RAWS STATION RACM4


0140 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 NNE NORTHPORT 45.21N 85.55W
09/24/2012 M49 MPH LEELANAU MI MESONET

REPORTED AT GLOS STATION GTLM4


0134 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW CHARLEVOIX 45.30N 85.27W
09/24/2012 M40 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI AWOS

REPORTED AT AWOS STATION CVX


1233 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNW AU SABLE 44.42N 83.35W
09/24/2012 M39 MPH IOSCO MI AWOS

REPORTED AT AWOS STATION OSC


1221 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E NORWOOD 45.24N 85.32W
09/24/2012 M37 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI MESONET

REPORTED AT APRSWXNET STATION C3642


1215 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WSW IRONTON 45.26N 85.22W
09/24/2012 M42 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI MESONET

REPORTED AT APRSWXNET STATION D7501


1139 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MACKINAC ISLAND 45.87N 84.64W
09/24/2012 M40 MPH MACKINAC MI AWOS

REPORTED AT AWOS STATION MCD


1118 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E MACKINAW CITY 45.78N 84.72W
09/24/2012 M48 MPH CHEBOYGAN MI MESONET

REPORTED AT NOS-NWLON STATION MACM4



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [242231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 242231
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
630 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0539 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW GAYLORD 45.02N 84.70W
09/24/2012 M37 MPH OTSEGO MI ASOS

REPORTED AT ASOS STATION GLR

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [242231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 242231
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
630 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0431 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E NORWOOD 45.24N 85.32W
09/24/2012 M39 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI MESONET

REPORTED AT APRSWXNET STATION C3642

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [242231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 242231
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
630 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0408 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE EMPIRE 44.80N 86.05W
09/24/2012 M36 MPH LEELANAU MI MESONET

REPORTED AT RAWS STATION SBDM4

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KGRR [242136]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 242136
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
535 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0106 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSE KALAMAZOO 42.24N 85.56W
09/24/2012 M29.00 MPH KALAMAZOO MI ASOS

MEASURED AT AZO.

0142 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 W HOLLAND 42.77N 86.21W
09/24/2012 M37.00 MPH OTTAWA MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

MEASURED AT THE HOLLAND NOS SITE ON THE NORTH PIER.

0200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W SOUTH HAVEN 42.40N 86.29W
09/24/2012 M36.00 MPH LMZ844 MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

MEASURED AT THE SOUTH HAVEN GLERL SITE.

0335 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E LUDINGTON 43.96N 86.41W
09/24/2012 M33.00 MPH MASON MI AWOS

0413 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSW CASCADE 42.88N 85.52W
09/24/2012 M33.00 MPH KENT MI ASOS

MEASURED AT THE GRAND RAPIDS AIRPORT GRR.

0420 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 WNW LUDINGTON 43.98N 86.56W
09/24/2012 M38.00 MPH LMZ849 MI BUOY

MEASURED AT THE UOFM BUOY OFF MASON COUNTY.

0422 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S MUSKEGON 43.17N 86.24W
09/24/2012 M35.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI ASOS

0430 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W MUSKEGON 43.23N 86.34W
09/24/2012 M36.00 MPH MUSKEGON MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

MEASURED AT THE MUSKEGON GLERL SITE.

0430 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE LUDINGTON 43.95N 86.44W
09/24/2012 M37.00 MPH MASON MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

MEASURED AT THE LUDINGTON NOS SITE IN THE HARBOR.

0430 PM NON-TSTM WND GST SW BIG SABLE POINT 44.06N 86.51W
09/24/2012 M39.00 MPH MASON MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

MEASURED AT THE BIG SABLE POINT MARINE OB SITE SOUTH OF
THE LIGHTHOUSE.

0440 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NW LANSING 42.78N 84.59W
09/24/2012 M33.00 MPH CLINTON MI ASOS

MEASURED AT LAN.


&&

$$

DUKE

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KAPX [242123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 242123
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
522 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 7 NNW BEAVER ISLAND 45.79N 85.61W
09/24/2012 M43.00 MPH LMZ362 MI SHIP

REPORTED FROM SHIP WDC6027-BURNS HARBOR

0150 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 WSW HARBOR SPRINGS 45.40N 85.10W
09/24/2012 M47.00 MPH LMZ342 MI BUOY

BOUY 45022

0150 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 46 ESE OSCODA 44.28N 82.42W
09/24/2012 M40.00 MPH LHZ363 XX BUOY

0240 PM NON-TSTM WND GST NAUBINWAY 46.11N 85.45W
09/24/2012 M43.00 MPH MACKINAC MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

REPORTED FROM NABM4

0312 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 NNW PRESQUE ISLE 45.37N 83.51W
09/24/2012 M39.00 MPH LHZ347 MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

REPORTED FROM PRIM4


&&

$$

LOCKER

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KAPX [242038]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 242038
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
438 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0354 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW WATERS 44.91N 84.72W
09/24/2012 M35 MPH OTSEGO MI MESONET

REPORTED AT APRSWXNET STATION D5664


0335 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MACKINAC ISLAND 45.87N 84.64W
09/24/2012 M43 MPH MACKINAC MI AWOS

REPORTED AT AWOS STATION MCD


0330 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSW ALPENA 45.05N 83.45W
09/24/2012 M37 MPH ALPENA MI MESONET

REPORTED AT MARITIME STATION APNM4


0314 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW KINCHELOE 46.24N 84.51W
09/24/2012 M43 MPH CHIPPEWA MI MESONET

REPORTED AT RAWS STATION RYDM4


0305 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S CATHRO 45.08N 83.56W
09/24/2012 M37 MPH ALPENA MI ASOS

REPORTED AT ASOS STATION APN


0253 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SW GAYLORD 45.01N 84.70W
09/24/2012 M39 MPH OTSEGO MI MESONET

REPORTED AT NONFEDAWOS STATION KGLR


0245 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSW ALPENA 45.05N 83.45W
09/24/2012 M35 MPH ALPENA MI MESONET

REPORTED AT MARITIME STATION APNM4


0214 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSW ROGERS CITY 45.41N 83.81W
09/24/2012 M36 MPH PRESQUE ISLE MI AWOS

REPORTED AT AWOS STATION PZQ


0212 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N CHEBOYGAN 45.65N 84.47W
09/24/2012 M40 MPH CHEBOYGAN MI MESONET

REPORTED AT MQT_MESO STATION CYGM4


0204 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WSW RACO 46.36N 84.80W
09/24/2012 M38 MPH CHIPPEWA MI MESONET

REPORTED AT RAWS STATION RACM4


0140 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 NNE NORTHPORT 45.21N 85.55W
09/24/2012 M49 MPH LEELANAU MI MESONET

REPORTED AT GLOS STATION GTLM4


0134 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW CHARLEVOIX 45.30N 85.27W
09/24/2012 M40 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI AWOS

REPORTED AT AWOS STATION CVX


1233 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNW AU SABLE 44.42N 83.35W
09/24/2012 M39 MPH IOSCO MI AWOS

REPORTED AT AWOS STATION OSC


1221 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E NORWOOD 45.24N 85.32W
09/24/2012 M37 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI MESONET

REPORTED AT APRSWXNET STATION C3642


1215 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WSW IRONTON 45.26N 85.22W
09/24/2012 M42 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI MESONET

REPORTED AT APRSWXNET STATION D7501


1139 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MACKINAC ISLAND 45.87N 84.64W
09/24/2012 M40 MPH MACKINAC MI AWOS

REPORTED AT AWOS STATION MCD


1118 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E MACKINAW CITY 45.78N 84.72W
09/24/2012 M48 MPH CHEBOYGAN MI MESONET

REPORTED AT NOS-NWLON STATION MACM4



&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [242034]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 242034
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
434 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0305 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S CATHRO 45.08N 83.56W
09/24/2012 M37 MPH ALPENA MI ASOS

REPORTED AT ASOS STATION APN

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [242034]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 242034
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
433 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0306 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S SAULT STE. MARIE 46.47N 84.37W
09/24/2012 M35 MPH CHIPPEWA MI ASOS

REPORTED AT ASOS STATION ANJ

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [242033]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 242033
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
432 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0314 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW KINCHELOE 46.24N 84.51W
09/24/2012 M43 MPH CHIPPEWA MI MESONET

REPORTED AT RAWS STATION RYDM4

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [242033]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 242033
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
432 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSW ALPENA 45.05N 83.45W
09/24/2012 M37 MPH ALPENA MI MESONET

REPORTED AT MARITIME STATION APNM4

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [242032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 242032
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
432 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0335 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MACKINAC ISLAND 45.87N 84.64W
09/24/2012 M43 MPH MACKINAC MI AWOS

REPORTED AT AWOS STATION MCD

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [242029]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 242029
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
428 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW MANISTEE 44.25N 86.35W
09/24/2012 M43 MPH MANISTEE MI MESONET

REPORTED AT GLOS STATION MEEM4

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [242028]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 242028
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
427 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0354 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW WATERS 44.91N 84.72W
09/24/2012 M35 MPH OTSEGO MI MESONET

REPORTED AT APRSWXNET STATION D5664

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [241945]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 241945
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
344 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSW ALPENA 45.05N 83.45W
09/24/2012 M35 MPH ALPENA MI MESONET

REPORTED AT MARITIME STATION APNM4

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241945
SWODY1
SPC AC 241942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2012

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

--- UPDATES ---
ONLY A FEW MINOR/PERIPHERAL ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO GEN TSTM LINES
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
MRGL/OVERNIGHT HAIL POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS REASONABLE OVER LOWER
MO/MID MS VALLEYS WHERE ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT
REGIME WILL JUXTAPOSE WITH SRN RIM OF FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR.

..EDWARDS.. 09/24/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FEATURE. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED WIND SPEED
MAXIMA WILL PIVOT CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE MEAN TROUGH BUT LITTLE
SENSIBLE WEATHER BESIDES INCREASED CLOUDINESS IS ANTICIPATED.
FARTHER W...A CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE ORE/NV/ID
BORDER INTERSECTION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SEWD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT
BASIN.

AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH
VALLEY WILL PROPAGATE SLOWLY EWD WHILE A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS/SRN HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO REVEALS A WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM A WEAK SFC LOW IN SWRN KS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ERN CONUS HIGH AND LEE TROUGH WILL FAVOR
ENHANCED SLY WINDS...WHICH WILL ACT TO SHARPEN THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE
IT NWD/NEWD AS A WARM FRONT. SCANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS
MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH 60 DEG DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE
GULF COAST AND CNTRL/S TX.

...NRN MO...CNTRL/SRN IL...SRN IND...WRN KY...
THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM FAR NERN KS SEWD
ACROSS WRN MO AND INTO N-CNTRL AR AT 06Z TUESDAY. ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET
SHOULD PROMOTE AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTANT FROM A DEEP EML AND
MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KTS PER NAM
GUIDANCE/ WILL SUPPORT A LOW SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITY. GIVEN THE
STABLE/DECOUPLED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE SEVERE WIND
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 PERCENT.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...NRN ROCKIES...
INCREASED MOISTURE...OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN NV...BUT THE MEAGER
INSTABILITY AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL PROHIBIT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND
THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WINDS IS BELOW 5 PERCENT.

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KAPX [241944]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 241944
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
344 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0214 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSW ROGERS CITY 45.41N 83.81W
09/24/2012 M36 MPH PRESQUE ISLE MI AWOS

REPORTED AT AWOS STATION PZQ

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [241944]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 241944
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
344 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1140 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW MANISTEE 44.25N 86.35W
09/24/2012 M36 MPH MANISTEE MI MESONET

REPORTED AT GLOS STATION MEEM4

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [241944]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 241944
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
344 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1221 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 E NORWOOD 45.24N 85.32W
09/24/2012 M37 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI MESONET

REPORTED AT APRSWXNET STATION C3642

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [241944]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 241944
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
344 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1155 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE KINROSS 46.25N 84.47W
09/24/2012 M36 MPH CHIPPEWA MI AWOS

REPORTED AT AWOS STATION CIU

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [241944]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 241944
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
343 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0204 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 WSW RACO 46.36N 84.80W
09/24/2012 M38 MPH CHIPPEWA MI MESONET

REPORTED AT RAWS STATION RACM4

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [241944]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 241944
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
343 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 WNW CHEBOYGAN 45.65N 84.53W
09/24/2012 M38 MPH CHEBOYGAN MI AWOS

REPORTED AT AWOS STATION SLH

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [241944]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 241944
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
343 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0253 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SW GAYLORD 45.01N 84.70W
09/24/2012 M39 MPH OTSEGO MI MESONET

REPORTED AT NONFEDAWOS STATION KGLR

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [241944]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 241944
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
343 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1233 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNW AU SABLE 44.42N 83.35W
09/24/2012 M39 MPH IOSCO MI AWOS

REPORTED AT AWOS STATION OSC

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [241943]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 241943
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
343 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0212 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 N CHEBOYGAN 45.65N 84.47W
09/24/2012 M40 MPH CHEBOYGAN MI MESONET

REPORTED AT MQT_MESO STATION CYGM4

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [241943]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 241943
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
343 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1139 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MACKINAC ISLAND 45.87N 84.64W
09/24/2012 M40 MPH MACKINAC MI AWOS

REPORTED AT AWOS STATION MCD

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [241943]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 241943
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
342 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW BEAVER ISLAND 45.69N 85.57W
09/24/2012 M40 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI AWOS

REPORTED AT AWOS STATION SJX

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [241943]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 241943
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
342 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1215 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WSW IRONTON 45.26N 85.22W
09/24/2012 M42 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI MESONET

REPORTED AT APRSWXNET STATION D7501

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [241943]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 241943
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
343 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0134 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW CHARLEVOIX 45.30N 85.27W
09/24/2012 M40 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI AWOS

REPORTED AT AWOS STATION CVX

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [241943]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 241943
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
342 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1154 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW PELLSTON 45.57N 84.80W
09/24/2012 M41 MPH EMMET MI ASOS

REPORTED AT ASOS STATION PLN

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [241943]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 241943
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
342 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0114 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW KINCHELOE 46.24N 84.51W
09/24/2012 M42 MPH CHIPPEWA MI MESONET

REPORTED AT RAWS STATION RYDM4

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [241942]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 241942
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
341 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1118 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E MACKINAW CITY 45.78N 84.72W
09/24/2012 M48 MPH CHEBOYGAN MI MESONET

REPORTED AT NOS-NWLON STATION MACM4

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KAPX [241940]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 241940
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
340 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0140 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 NNE NORTHPORT 45.21N 85.55W
09/24/2012 M49 MPH LEELANAU MI MESONET

REPORTED AT GLOS STATION GTLM4

&&

$$

IRIS SYSTEM

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KMFL [241855]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 241855
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
255 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1120 AM WATER SPOUT 3 E PORT EVERGLADES 26.10N 80.07W
09/24/2012 AMZ651 FL BROADCAST MEDIA

WATERSPOUT VISIBLE FOR ABOUT 5 MINUTES THEN DISSIPATED.


&&

$$

GREGORIA

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 241640
SWODY2
SPC AC 241639

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2012

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEAMPLIFICATION IS FCST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
CONUS THROUGH PERIOD...AS ERN HUDSON BAY-AREA VORTEX DEVOLVES TO
OPEN WAVE AND MOVES EWD ACROSS NRN QUE. GEN CYCLONIC-FLOW REGIME
WILL PERSIST ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND...MOSTLY RELATED TO
SPEED MAX/VORTICITY BANNER NOW EVIDENT OVER WRN/NWRN SHORE OF HUDSON
BAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD PIVOT SEWD/EWD AND AMPLIFY...WITH
STG/POSITIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING LS...LM...AND UPPER MI
DURING LATTER HALF OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SMALL MID-UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE -- NOW SLOWLY FILLING AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS NWRN GREAT
BASIN REGION -- IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT EWD ACROSS UT AND WRN CO
THROUGH DAY-2...WHILE CONTINUING SLOW WEAKENING TREND.
SEPARATE/NRN-STREAM PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY APCHG BC COAST -- SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ACROSS CANADIAN ROCKIES
AND ID PANHANDLE BY 26/00Z...TO SRN AB AND NRN MT BY 26/12Z.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT NOW OVER NWRN ONT...NWRN MN AND ND IS FCST TO
SWEEP SEWD TO 24/12Z POSITION NEAR NRN LH...SRN WI...CENTRAL/SRN
IA...NERN/CENTRAL KS...AND OK PANHANDLE. BY 25/00Z...FRONT SHOULD
EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM SRN LH TO NRN IL...NRN MO...ERN/SRN KS...THROUGH
WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER TX PANHANDLE...TO ERN PORTIONS CO/NM
BORDER.

...ERN KS TO MID/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...
ONLY MINOR/SUPERFICIAL CHANGES TO THUNDER AND MRGL-SVR PROBABILITIES
ACROSS THIS AREA...AS PROGS HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN
INTO LATEST/12Z GUIDANCE FOR FRONTAL POSITION AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL OVER THIS SWATH. SCATTERED AFTERNOON/SFC-BASED TSTMS MAY
BE FOCUSED ON RELATED DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING ZONES AS MUCH AS FRONT
ITSELF. CORRIDOR OF 60S F SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON...THANKS TO PRIOR MOIST
ADVECTION/TRANSPORT...SUPPORTING MLCAPE 800-1500 J/KG IN FCST
SOUNDINGS. SOME BACKING OF WINDS OVER ERN IL AND INDIANA...RELATED
TO WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVER IL...MAY ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
ENOUGH TO OFFER AT LEAST BRIEF SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...WITH ATTENDANT
RISK OF WIND/HAIL. MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION AND
SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE PERSISTENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP LEFT OVER FROM
MORNING ACTIVITY.

IN AND NEAR FRONTAL ZONE...MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALL ARE FCST TO WEAKEN WITH WSWWD EXTENT...AS
DISTANCE INCREASES FROM GREAT-LAKES CYCLONIC FLOW BELT ALOFT.
MEANWHILE...WARMER AND MORE WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL
CHARACTERIZE PREFRONTAL AIR MASS OVER KS/OK...SUPPORTING POTENTIAL
FOR STG GUSTS DURING RELATIVELY BRIEF TIME WINDOW OF LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. WHILE WRN EDGE OF ACTUAL SVR POTENTIAL IS
NECESSARILY MORE FUZZY THAN CAN BE DRAWN USING LINES...ORGANIZATION
OF CONVECTION AND CONDITIONALITY OF SVR RISK EACH APPEAR TOO LOW FOR
AOA 5% PROBABILITIES W OF ERN KS ATTM.

..EDWARDS.. 09/24/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241620
SWODY1
SPC AC 241618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2012

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FEATURE. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED WIND SPEED
MAXIMA WILL PIVOT CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE MEAN TROUGH BUT LITTLE
SENSIBLE WEATHER BESIDES INCREASED CLOUDINESS IS ANTICIPATED.
FARTHER W...A CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE ORE/NV/ID
BORDER INTERSECTION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SEWD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT
BASIN.

AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH
VALLEY WILL PROPAGATE SLOWLY EWD WHILE A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS/SRN HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO REVEALS A WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM A WEAK SFC LOW IN SWRN KS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ERN CONUS HIGH AND LEE TROUGH WILL FAVOR
ENHANCED SLY WINDS...WHICH WILL ACT TO SHARPEN THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE
IT NWD/NEWD AS A WARM FRONT. SCANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS
MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH 60 DEG DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE
GULF COAST AND CNTRL/S TX.

...NRN MO...CNTRL/SRN IL...SRN IND...WRN KY...
THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM FAR NERN KS SEWD
ACROSS WRN MO AND INTO N-CNTRL AR AT 06Z TUESDAY. ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET
SHOULD PROMOTE AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTANT FROM A DEEP EML AND
MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KTS PER NAM
GUIDANCE/ WILL SUPPORT A LOW SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITY. GIVEN THE
STABLE/DECOUPLED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE SEVERE WIND
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 PERCENT.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...NRN ROCKIES...
INCREASED MOISTURE...OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN NV...BUT THE MEAGER
INSTABILITY AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL PROHIBIT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND
THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WINDS IS BELOW 5 PERCENT.

..MOSIER.. 09/24/2012

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KLZK [241304]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 241304
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
804 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0543 AM HAIL DRASCO 35.63N 91.95W
09/24/2012 E1.00 INCH CLEBURNE AR PUBLIC


&&

$$

55

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KLZK [241258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 241258
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
758 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0638 AM HAIL CONCORD 35.66N 91.85W
09/24/2012 E1.00 INCH CLEBURNE AR PUBLIC


&&

$$

55

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241255
SWODY1
SPC AC 241253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2012

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE...WEAK SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WRN AND
CNTRL U.S. THROUGH TUE...UPSTREAM FROM BROAD UPR TROUGH/LOW OVER ERN
CANADA...THE GRT LKS AND THE NERN STATES. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW
OVER WY/CO WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE CNTRL HI PLNS LATER TODAY AND INTO
ERN NEB/CNTRL KS BY EVE...BEFORE CONTINUING E IN CONFLUENT FLOW OVER
THE MID MS VLY EARLY TUE.

AT LWR LVLS...EXPANSIVE COOL SFC HIGH NOW CENTERED OVER SRN IND
SHOULD SHIFT E TO VA BY EVE AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST EARLY TUE.
IN RESPONSE...EXPECT SW TO WSWLY LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO STRENGTHEN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH LATER TODAY INTO TUE...FROM THE
SRN/CNTRL PLNS INTO THE OZARKS AND MID MS VLY.

THE WY/CO SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN ALONG BAND OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LVL FLOW...LIKELY
WILL FOSTER SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUE ALONG
AND NE OF WARM FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MO...MID MS...AND LWR OH
VLYS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD YIELD A FEW INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL AND
POSSIBLY LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

...LWR MO VLY INTO MID MS/LWR OH VLYS LATE TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
SUBSTANTIAL EML SPREADING E IN CONFLUENT WNWLY FLOW OVER THE CNTRL
PLNS SHOULD CAP WARM FRONT TO SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. SOME ELEVATED STORMS MAY...HOWEVER...PERSIST FOR
AWHILE THIS MORNING OVER NRN/ERN AR...WELL NE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY.
THE 12Z LZK RAOB SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLD
SVR HAIL DURING THEIR EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT.

LATER TODAY INTO TNGT...APPROACH OF WY/CO UPR IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT A NEW ROUND OF SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY ELEVATED STORMS ALONG
AND NE OF THE FRONT FROM FAR NE KS E/SE INTO NRN AND CNTRL MO. THIS
ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL GROW INTO A SMALL E/SE-MOVING CLUSTER OR TWO AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ...AND AS UPR
IMPULSE CONTINUES EWD.

WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES...COMBINATION OF
DEEP EML AND MODERATE...DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY CLOUD-LAYER FLOW
MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH SVR HAIL AND...ESPECIALLY IN
MO...POSSIBLY LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 09/24/2012

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KPBZ [241241]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 241241
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
841 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 S LYNCH 41.53N 79.05W
09/22/2012 FOREST PA DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

TREES DOWN


&&

EVENT NUMBER PBZ1201042

$$

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KCLE [241220]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCLE 241220
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
820 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 AM WATER SPOUT 2 NW NORTH EAST 42.23N 79.86W
09/24/2012 ERIE PA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

THOMPSON

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KCLE [241219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCLE 241219
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
819 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 AM WATER SPOUT 3 NE NORTH EAST 42.24N 79.79W
09/24/2012 ERIE PA TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

THOMPSON

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 240900
SWOD48
SPC AC 240859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2012

VALID 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN DECENT LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH SMALLER-SCALE DIFFERENCES -- PARTICULARLY IN THE
WEAKER SRN STREAM OVER THE SRN U.S. -- ARE EVIDENT EVEN EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.

HAVING SAID THAT...MODELS AGREE THAT THE STRONGER/PROGRESSING
PORTION OF THE ERN U.S. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE MOVED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...WHILE THE
WWD-TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE CAROLINAS WWD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEAKENS WITH TIME.

ASIDE FROM AN UPPER LOW -- PROGGED BY BOTH MODELS TO CUT OFF OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S./SOUTHEAST CANADA BEGINNING ROUGHLY DAY 6 /SAT.
9-29/...THE FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S. SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...WITH A GENERALLY DIFFUSE UPPER PATTERN FORECAST. THE
LACK OF ANY STRONGER/PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS APPARENT ATTM SUGGESTS
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE EVENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 09/24/2012

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 240723
SWODY3
SPC AC 240721

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
AS A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD...THE NRN PORTION OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT -- STRETCHING INITIALLY FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA
WSWWD INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION -- WILL PROGRESS EWD WITH
TIME. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST PRIOR TO THE END OF THE PERIOD -- BUT SHOULD
LINGER ACROSS THE OH/MID MS/LOWER MO VALLEY REGIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INVOF THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE WEST...RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF PRIMARILY DIURNAL
CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

...OH/PA AND VICINITY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS OF
PA AND WV...INVOF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS
PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON -- THUS HINDERING APPRECIABLE
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...WITH A BELT OF STRONGER WLYS AT
MID LEVELS POSSIBLY SUPPORT A FEW SEMI-ORGANIZED STORMS OR STORM
CLUSTERS...POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS SUPPORTS
INTRODUCTION OF A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION.

...SRN KS/NWRN OK INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PNHDLS...
ONGOING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AS WELL...AGAIN TEMPERING SEVERE
POTENTIAL. STILL...PRESENCE OF THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE WEAK
SURFACE FRONT AND MODEST VEERING/SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

..GOSS.. 09/24/2012

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 240558
SWODY2
SPC AC 240557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2012

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED INVOF ERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH TIME...WHILE DRIFTING EWD ACROSS
NRN QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD TOWARD THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD SURROUNDING THIS
SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A BELT OF STRONGER WLYS ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY/MIDWEST REGION. ELSEWHERE...WHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE UT/CO REGION AND A SECOND WEAK TROUGH CROSSES WA/NRN ID
AND EVENTUALLY WRN MT...THE OVERALL FLOW FIELD ALOFT ACROSS THE U.S.
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SWWD INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS THIS
PERIOD -- PARTICULARLY FROM THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREA SWWD. THIS
FRONT -- AND A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT -- WILL SUPPORT
PERSISTENT CONVECTION...WITH PRIMARILY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALSO FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

...MID AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION WWD INTO ERN KS...
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS THIS REGION...WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME LEAVING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH MIDDAY.

THE CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD HAMPER
APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION IN MOST AREAS -- WHICH WILL TEMPER
SEVERE POTENTIAL. STILL...SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHERE POCKETS OF WEAK DESTABILIZATION CAN
OCCUR. WITH A BELT OF STRONGER /35-45 KT/ MID-LEVEL WLYS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A FEW SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST
STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS MAY OCCUR...WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND A FEW
STRONGER WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL WANE INTO THE EVENING AS SUNSET USHERS IN LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS STABILIZATION.

..GOSS.. 09/24/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 240440
SWODY1
SPC AC 240438

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2012

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CANADA AND INTO
THE NERN STATES...WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CONUS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE AS IT TRAVELS SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY TUE MORNING.

A STRONG LEAD TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY...WITH
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTER SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY 00Z. SLY
FLOW WILL THUS INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHERE A PLUME OF MID TO
UPPER 50S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST WITH AXIS FROM THE
SABINE RIVER NWD INTO ERN KS/WRN MO AT 00Z.

ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE PLAINS...A
DISTURBANCE IS INDICATED BY SEVERAL MODELS...AFFECTING ERN NEB/KS
LATE IN THE DAY AND CONTINUING EWD ACROSS MO AND INTO IL OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL HELP FOCUS LIFT FOR STORMS OVER THIS REGION...WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING.

...NRN MO...CNTRL/SRN IL...SRN IND...WRN KY...
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE CAPPED FOR MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ARRIVES...AND LIFT INCREASES ON
THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIATED ACROSS FAR NERN KS/NWRN MO AFTER 00Z...WITH STORMS GROWING
UPSCALE AND TRAVELING EWD INTO IL AND IND OVERNIGHT. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE STORMS ALONG AT 30-40 KT...WITH EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STORM LONGEVITY.

ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE COOL AND RELATIVELY STABLE...IT
WILL BE COMPRISED OF DRY AIR AND MAY AID IN EVAPORATION/COLD POOL
PRODUCTION. LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE STEEP AND DOWNDRAFTS MAY
CONTAIN HAIL. THUS...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR
WITH ANY ORGANIZED LINES OF STORMS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO
OCCUR.

..JEWELL.. 09/24/2012

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