Friday, August 1, 2008

KIWX [020358]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 020358
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1157 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0951 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SW REDKEY 40.33N 85.18W
08/01/2008 JAY IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. DAMAGE EXTENDS FROM THE
COUNTY LINE NEAR SR 67 NORTH TO 1100 W. DAMAGE IS
SOUTHWEST OF REDKEY.


&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0801770

$$

LMK

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1991

ACUS11 KWNS 020356
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020356 COR
NDZ000-MTZ000-020530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1991
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 789...

VALID 020356Z - 020530Z

CORRECTED FOR TIME REFERENCE

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 789
CONTINUES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA.

ISOLATED TSTMS OVER MCLEAN AND SRN MERCER/WRN OLIVER COUNTIES HAVE
SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND AS OF 0350Z...PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
STRENGTHENING CAP ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT A LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD
THROUGH S-CNTRL MT WITH A DOWNSTREAM ZONE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUPPORTING ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NW OF MLS. THIS IMPULSE SHOULD
CONTINUE NEWD OVERNIGHT...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WRN EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS OVER FAR
WRN ND. CURRENT BIS VWP AND RUC FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE THAT
VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG AND THE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME
SUSTAINED.

..MEAD.. 08/02/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW...

47450433 49120425 49139942 48269941 48219969 46170014
46400322 46840430

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1991

ACUS11 KWNS 020354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020354
NDZ000-MTZ000-020530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1991
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 789...

VALID 020354Z - 020530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 789
CONTINUES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS WW AREA.

ISOLATED TSTMS OVER MCLEAN AND SRN MERCER/WRN OLIVER COUNTIES HAVE
SHOWN A WEAKENING TREND AS OF 0035Z...PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
STRENGTHENING CAP ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT A LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NEWD
THROUGH S-CNTRL MT WITH A DOWNSTREAM ZONE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUPPORTING ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NW OF MLS. THIS IMPULSE SHOULD
CONTINUE NEWD OVERNIGHT...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WRN EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AXIS OVER FAR
WRN ND. CURRENT BIS VWP AND RUC FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE THAT
VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG AND THE POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME
SUSTAINED.

..MEAD.. 08/02/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...GGW...

47450433 49120425 49139942 48269941 48219969 46170014
46400322 46840430

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KIWX [020353]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 020353
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1153 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0946 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 WSW REDKEY 40.33N 85.20W
08/01/2008 JAY IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL HEALTHY TREES COMPLETELY UPROOTED BETWEEN 800 S
AND 500 S NEAR THE COUNTY LINE


&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0801769

$$

LMK

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KIWX [020349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 020349
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1148 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0946 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 WSW REDKEY 40.34N 85.20W
08/01/2008 JAY IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

5 ELECTRICAL POLES BROKEN WITH POWER LINES DRAGGED INTO
A CORN FIELD...DAMAGE TO A CORN FIELD...AND TREE TOPPING
REPORTED NEAR CR 1150 W AND 700 S.


&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0801768

$$

LMK

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KIWX [020338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 020338
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1123 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0942 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSE DUNKIRK 40.35N 85.19W
08/01/2008 JAY IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

PARTIAL ROOF OFF OF A HOME...DAMAGE TO THE SIDE OF THE
HOME...TREES DOWN.


&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0801767

$$

LMK

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KFWD [020306]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 020306
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1005 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0522 PM HAIL 5 ESE COMANCHE 31.87N 98.53W
08/01/2008 E0.75 INCH COMANCHE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

MARBLE TO PENNY HAIL AND STREET FLOODING IN
COMYN...ACROSS NRN PTN OF COUNTY.

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1990

ACUS11 KWNS 020256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020256
PAZ000-OHZ000-020430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1990
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0956 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH INTO NWRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 020256Z - 020430Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL INCREASING
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE TSTMS INCREASING IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER LAKE ERIE ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE
TROUGH PUSHING SEWD THROUGH SWRN ONTARIO AND SERN LOWER MI. AREA
VWPS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE /IN
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS/ HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE
W...EFFECTIVELY SUPPORTING THE EWD ADVECTION OF A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OBSERVED BY 00Z RAOBS OVER THE MIDDLE OH VALLEY.
THIS DECREASING STABILITY COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR MAY PROMOTE FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE LAKE INTO NERN OH AND NWRN
PA. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

..MEAD.. 08/02/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...

42048118 42178041 41828002 41448013 40898059 40658137
40578238 40828280 41338279 41528249

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KBIS [020255]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 020255
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
955 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0942 PM HAIL 3 S NEW TOWN 47.94N 102.49W
08/01/2008 M1.75 INCH MOUNTRAIL ND TRAINED SPOTTER

LASTED 3 MINUTES BUT SPOTTER DROVE AWAY FROM STORM.


&&

$$

VROLLER

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KIWX [020254]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 020254
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1054 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0955 PM HAIL FAIRMOUNT 40.42N 85.65W
08/01/2008 E0.88 INCH GRANT IN PUBLIC

GAS STATIONS IN FAIRMOUNT REPORTED HAIL OCCURRED AROUND
1000 PM


&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0801766

$$

LMK

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KCHS [020239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS52 KCHS 020239
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1039 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM WATER SPOUT 8 E EDISTO ISLAND 32.56N 80.16W
08/01/2008 AMZ350 SC PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED A WATER SPOUT.

0545 PM TSTM WND DMG SEABROOK ISLAND 32.59N 80.16W
08/01/2008 CHARLESTON SC TRAINED SPOTTER

A 2 TO 3 FOOT DIAMETER TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN. ALSO
ESTIMATED OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME FLOODING ON THE
ROAD.

0547 PM HAIL SEABROOK ISLAND 32.59N 80.16W
08/01/2008 E0.75 INCH CHARLESTON SC TRAINED SPOTTER

TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED PENNY SIZE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL.

0620 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S ROCKVILLE 32.59N 80.19W
08/01/2008 CHARLESTON SC TRAINED SPOTTER

HIGH WINDS BEACHED AND DAMAGED SEVERAL YACHTS AND BOATS
ALONG THE BANKS OF THE NORTH EDISTO RIVER NEAR ROCKVILLE.
THESE BOATS WERE PREPARING FOR THE ROCKVILLE REGATTA.

0633 PM FLASH FLOOD SEABROOK ISLAND 32.59N 80.16W
08/01/2008 CHARLESTON SC TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING ON SEABROOK
ISLAND WITH RAINFALL ESTIMATED BETWEEN 4 AND 5 INCHES SO
FAR. THE WATER IS COMING UP SEVERAL INCHES ON THE CARS.

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG CLAXTON 32.16N 81.90W
08/01/2008 EVANS GA BROADCAST MEDIA

TWO TREES DOWNED BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS. REPORT RELAYED BY
A SAVANNAH TV STATION.

0728 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 S GLENNVILLE 31.84N 81.93W
08/01/2008 LONG GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

6 TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 301. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON
RADAR AND REPORTS INTO THE 911 CENTER.

0730 PM HEAVY RAIN SEABROOK ISLAND 32.59N 80.16W
08/01/2008 M4.70 INCH CHARLESTON SC TRAINED SPOTTER

OCCURRED DURING ABOUT THREE HOURS. MINOR FLOODING ALSO
SEEN ON AREA ROADS.

0754 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 S WALTHOURVILLE 31.73N 81.63W
08/01/2008 LONG GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.


0815 PM FLASH FLOOD SEABROOK ISLAND 32.59N 80.16W
08/01/2008 CHARLESTON SC TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED THE MAIN ROAD ON SEABROOK WAS IMPASSABLE
BY MOST VEHICLES DUE TO FLOODING.


&&

$$

JAQ

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KBIS [020237]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 020237
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
937 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0917 PM HAIL HALLIDAY 47.35N 102.34W
08/01/2008 M1.00 INCH DUNN ND CO-OP OBSERVER

HAIL ON GOING AND HAS BEEN FOR 20 MINUTES.


&&

$$

VROLLER

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KIWX [020236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KIWX 020236
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1036 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0950 PM TSTM WND DMG REDKEY 40.35N 85.15W
08/01/2008 JAY IN EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN THE REDKEY AND ALBANY
AREAS. STATE ROAD 67 AT 1150 WEST BETWEEN ALBANY AND
REDKEY IS TEMPORARILY SHUT DOWN BECAUSE OF TREES ACROSS
THE ROAD.


&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER IWX0801765

$$

LMK

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KBIS [020233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 020233
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
933 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0919 PM HAIL SURREY 48.24N 101.13W
08/01/2008 M0.88 INCH WARD ND PUBLIC

RELAYED BY MEDIA


&&

$$

VROLLER

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KPBZ [020233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 020233
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1033 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1006 PM TSTM WND DMG BARNESVILLE 39.99N 81.17W
08/01/2008 BELMONT OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE BLOWN DOWN.


&&

$$

TPARRISH

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KLCH [020231]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 020231
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
931 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0910 PM TSTM WND DMG DERIDDER 30.85N 93.29W
08/01/2008 BEAUREGARD LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES IN DERIDDER REPORTED BY
BEAUREGARD PARISH SHERIFF OFFICE.


&&

$$

SHAMBURGER

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KPBZ [020228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPBZ 020228
LSRPBZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1028 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 PM HAIL BETHESDA 40.02N 81.07W
08/01/2008 M1.00 INCH BELMONT OH PUBLIC


&&

$$

TPARRISH

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KIWX [020225]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 020225
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1024 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0950 PM TSTM WND DMG REDKEY 40.35N 85.15W
08/01/2008 JAY IN EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN THE REDKEY AND ALBANY
AREAS. STATE ROAD 67 BETWEEN ALBANY AND REDKEY IS
TEMPORARILY SHUT DOWN BECAUSE OF TREES ACROSS THE ROAD.


&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0801765

$$

LMK

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KBIS [020222]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 020222
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
922 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 PM HAIL MINOT 48.23N 101.30W
08/01/2008 M1.00 INCH WARD ND PUBLIC

IN VICINITY OF THE DAKOTA SQUARE MALL, RELAYED BY THE
MEDIA.


&&

$$

VROLLER

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 790

WWUS20 KWNS 020218
SEL0
SPC WW 020218
INZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-020900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 790
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA
NORTHERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OHIO

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1015 PM
UNTIL 500 AM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF TERRE HAUTE INDIANA TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
COLUMBUS OHIO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 788...WW 789...

DISCUSSION...SCTD STRONG TO SVR STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY IN WW AREA AS UVV/DEEP SHEAR SLOWLY INCREASE AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING LARGER SCALE TROUGH. LOW LVL CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN
WEAK...AND MAY LIMIT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A LARGE MCS. BUT
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY /PER 00Z RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS/ AND
MODERATE...VEERING WIND FIELD SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SMALLER SCALE
BOWING SEGMENTS WITH SVR WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WITH ANY SUSTAINED
STORMS THAT DO FORM.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30025.


...CORFIDI

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KAKQ [020219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KAKQ 020219
LSRAKQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1019 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0407 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NW URBANNA 37.65N 76.59W
07/27/2008 MIDDLESEX VA PUBLIC

SOME TREES DOWN.


&&

$$

BJACKSON

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KBIS [020218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 020218
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
918 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0914 PM HAIL MINOT 48.23N 101.30W
08/01/2008 M0.88 INCH WARD ND BROADCAST MEDIA

HAIL AT KXMC STUDIO


&&

$$

VROLLER

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KIND [020216]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIND 020216
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1016 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 PM TSTM WND DMG EATON 40.34N 85.35W
08/01/2008 DELAWARE IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

2 TREES DOWN IN EATON


&&

$$

PGRAY

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KBIS [020214]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 020214
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
914 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0855 PM HAIL 14 NW HALLIDAY 47.50N 102.55W
08/01/2008 M1.75 INCH DUNN ND TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL,HAILING FOR 15 MINUTES AND
ON GOING.


&&

$$

VROLLER

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 789

WWUS20 KWNS 020201
SEL9
SPC WW 020201
NDZ000-020900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 789
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
900 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 900 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST OF
BISMARCK NORTH DAKOTA TO 50 MILES NORTH OF MINOT NORTH DAKOTA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 788...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING...NOCTURNAL LLJ. THE
COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODERATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
AND 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.


...MEAD/CORFIDI

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KMQT [020151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 020151
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
950 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 S WALLACE 45.29N 87.62W
08/01/2008 MENOMINEE MI PUBLIC

SEVERAL TREES AND MANY BRANCHES DOWN. ONE TREE WAS
GREATER THAN ONE FOOT IN DIAMETER. ALSO LARGE POPLAR TREE
SNAPPED.

0320 PM HAIL 3 S WALLACE 45.29N 87.62W
08/01/2008 E1.50 INCH MENOMINEE MI PUBLIC

DAMAGE TO CARS


&&

$$

MRC

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KCHS [020144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 020144
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
944 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0728 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 S GLENNVILLE 31.84N 81.93W
08/01/2008 LONG GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

6 TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 301. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON
RADAR AND REPORTS INTO THE 911 CENTER.

0754 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 S WALTHOURVILLE 31.73N 81.63W
08/01/2008 LONG GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

$$

JAQ

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KTFX [020138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 020138
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
736 PM MDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0609 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNE MCALLISTER 45.50N 111.70W
08/01/2008 M60 MPH MADISON MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

NORRIS HILL OBSERVATION ON US-287.


&&

$$

ACOHEN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1989

ACUS11 KWNS 020135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020135
NDZ000-020230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1989
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0835 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 020135Z - 020230Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

ISOLATED...DIURNAL TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS AS OF 0125Z OVER SWRN WARD
AND NRN DUNN COUNTIES. THE STORM IN NRN DUNN COUNTY HAS EXHIBITED
CYCLONIC ROTATION AND HAS PRODUCED HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING
THAT A SLY...NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH MAY SUPPORT ONGOING STORMS AND PROMOTE
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD.. 08/02/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...

48930311 49010190 48890021 47250021 46900211 47440353
48660372

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KBIS [020128]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 020128
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
828 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0824 PM HAIL 8 N MAKOTI 48.08N 101.81W
08/01/2008 M1.50 INCH WARD ND PUBLIC

RELAYED BY MEDIA


&&

$$

VROLLER

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KBIS [020119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 020119
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
819 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 PM HAIL PLAZA 48.03N 101.96W
08/01/2008 M1.00 INCH MOUNTRAIL ND PUBLIC

ON GOING AND HAIL GETTING BIGGER, ALSO 45 TO 50 MPH
WINDS. RELAYED BY THE MEDIA


&&

$$

VROLLER

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KIWX [020113]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 020113
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
913 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0910 PM HAIL CONVERSE 40.58N 85.88W
08/01/2008 M0.88 INCH MIAMI IN AMATEUR RADIO


&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0801764

$$

LMK

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KBIS [020112]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 020112
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
812 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 PM HAIL 23 NW KILLDEER 47.60N 103.10W
08/01/2008 M2.50 INCH DUNN ND TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

VROLLER

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KTWC [020104]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTWC 020104
LSRTWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
604 PM MST FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 NW MARANA 32.50N 111.27W
08/01/2008 PIMA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL LARGE TREES GREATER THAN ONE FOOT IN DIAMETER
UPROOTED AND 747 PLANE BLOWN 45 DEGREES FROM PARKED
POSITION AT PINAL COUNTY AIRPARK.


&&

$$

BTURNER

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 787

WWUS20 KWNS 020103
SEL7
SPC WW 020103
INZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-020100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 787
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
903 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 787 ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF

INDIANA
MICHIGAN
OHIO

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020101
SWODY1
SPC AC 020059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS GREAT LAKES TO MID MS
VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ND...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS CONUS WITH UPPER
TROUGHING OVER GREAT LAKES AND PACIFIC NW...HIGH OVER S-CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND RIDGING NEWD OVER MB. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING STG VORTICITY LOBE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER LS AND UPPER MI -- ARE FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS LOWER
MI TO SRN ONT AND LE THROUGH END OF PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SFC LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH SEPARATE UPPER PERTURBATION WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
OVER WRN QUE...WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS SERN
ONT...LE...NRN OH...CENTRAL INDIANA AND SRN IL. MEANWHILE...WRN
SEGMENT OF FRONT -- INITIALLY ANALYZED ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NW
KS...SHOULD MOVE/RE-DEVELOP NWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. SFC ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES DRYLINE INVOF ERN MT BORDER
SWD ACROSS NEB PANHANDLE. SFC COLD FRONT FROM SWRN SASK SWWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SWRN MT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOVING EWD OVER MOST OF MT
THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...LINKING WITH INITIALLY SEPARATE SFC LOW
OVER SERN MT BEFORE DAYBREAK.

...GREAT LAKES TO MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...
SEVERAL BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF STG-SVR TSTMS ARE EVIDENT FROM LOWER
MI SWD ACROSS INDIANA/OH AND SRN IL. REF WW 788 AND RELATED
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE OVER SRN PORTIONS
IL/INDIANA. BUOYANCY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT GIVEN 00Z
RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS...WHILE DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR GENERALLY
INCREASES...GREATEST OVERLAP BEING OVER CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK AREA.
ALTHOUGH NOCTURNAL MCS DEVELOPMENT REMAINS CONDITIONAL ON
STORM-SCALE PROCESSES LEADING TO UPSCALE COLD-POOL ACCUMULATION --
MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR THIS PROCESS TO OCCUR STILL APPEARS TO BE
OVER PORTIONS OH OR INDIANA...WHERE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ABOVE SFC MAY
INCREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS MID/UPPER TROUGH APCHS.
SPORADIC/MRGL SVR HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS LOWER MI WHERE
STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN IMMEDIATE PROXIMITY TO
TROUGH WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SUPPORTIVE BUOYANCY...DESPITE DIABATIC
SFC COOLING.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED SVR TSTMS EVIDENT OVER WRN ND ATTM...IN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STG SFC HEATING AND DEEP/WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD
LAYERS SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR STG=SVR GUSTS AND HAIL GENERATED
ALOFT TO REACH SFC....AMIDST 40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. CAPPING SHOULD CONTINUE
TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF REMAINING DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY.
ALSO...BULK OF DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN E OF SFC
DRYLINE...WHICH MAY RETREAT SLIGHTLY WWD THIS EVENING BEFORE BEING
OVERTAKEN BY SFC COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WAA AND NARROW
MOISTURE RETURN PLUME IS EXPECTED N OF SFC WARM FRONT AND NEARLY
PARALLEL WITH 850 MB WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS REGIME SHOULD
SUPPORT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS INVOF NOSE OF 25-35 KT
SLY/SSWLY LLJ ACROSS WRN ND...POSSIBLY EXTREME ERN MT. DAMAGING
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY.
CUMULATIVE/SPATIALLY OVERLAPPING POTENTIAL FROM REMAINDER OF ONGOING
ACTIVITY PLUS THAT FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TRIGGERS 15-PERCENT
PROBABILITY AND CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK FOR PARTS OF THIS AREA.

..EDWARDS.. 08/02/2008

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KTWC [020057]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTWC 020057
LSRTWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
556 PM MST FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 NW MARANA 32.50N 111.27W
08/01/2008 PIMA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

ROOF DAMAGE TO HANGER AT PINAL AIRPARK.


&&

$$

JDAVIS

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KBIS [020056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 020056
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
756 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM HAIL 1 S NEW TOWN 47.97N 102.49W
08/01/2008 M0.75 INCH MOUNTRAIL ND TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

VROLLER

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KCHS [020055]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 020055
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
854 PM EDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG CLAXTON 32.16N 81.90W
08/01/2008 EVANS GA BROADCAST MEDIA

TWO TREES DOWNED BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS. REPORT RELAYED BY
A SAVANNAH TV STATION.


&&

$$

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KBIS [011415]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 011415
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
915 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL HEBRON 46.90N 102.04W
07/30/2008 M2.50 INCH MORTON ND NEWSPAPER

EVENT HAPPENED BETWEEN 515 AND 545 PM CDT.


&&

$$

VINING

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KLOT [011303]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 011303
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
803 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0620 AM TSTM WND DMG ELGIN 42.04N 88.29W
08/01/2008 KANE IL AMATEUR RADIO

DOWNED TREE 12-18 INCHES IN DIAMATER AT RANDALL RD AND
ALMORA.


&&

$$

ACS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011247
SWODY1
SPC AC 011244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY...

...OH VALLEY...
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
VORT LOBE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN IA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
FEATURE OVER WI AND UPPER MI. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER LOWER MI/IND/IL AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
REGION. STRONG HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WILL YIELD
MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...RATHER
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS
WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OVER 35 KNOTS. CLUSTERS OF INTENSE
STORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF IND/OH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE FOCUSED DAMAGING WIND
EVENT IF STORM CLUSTERS COALESCE INTO A LARGER MCS.

...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...A 60+ KNOT MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL
ROTATE FROM ID/WESTERN MT INTO ALBERTA. THIS WILL HELP TO INDUCE A
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF
MT/ND. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER DARK OVER EASTERN MT...SPREADING INTO
WESTERN ND. STRONGER STORMS IN THIS REGION COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL.

...SOUTHEAST...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN TODAY
ALONG A REMNANT MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FROM LA/AR INTO THE CAROLINAS.
A FEW WET MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS AXIS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

..HART/SMITH.. 08/01/2008

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KLOT [011230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 011230
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
730 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0619 AM TSTM WND DMG ELGIN 42.04N 88.29W
08/01/2008 KANE IL AMATEUR RADIO

LARGE TREE DOWN AT CRISPIN DR AND MCLEAN BLVD.


&&

$$

ACS

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KLOT [011215]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 011215
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
714 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM FLOOD ELGIN 42.04N 88.29W
08/01/2008 KANE IL AMATEUR RADIO

STREET FLOODED CURB TO CURB AT DEMMOND AND MCLEAN BLVD.


&&

$$

ACS

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KLOT [011201]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 011201
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
701 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0639 AM FLOOD GILBERTS 42.10N 88.37W
08/01/2008 KANE IL LAW ENFORCEMENT

REPORT FROM KANE COUNTY SHERIFF

0640 AM HEAVY RAIN ELGIN 42.04N 88.29W
08/01/2008 M2.04 INCH KANE IL AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

ACS

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KDVN [011148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KDVN 011148
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
648 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 PM TSTM WND DMG WINSLOW 42.49N 89.80W
07/31/2008 STEPHENSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

*** 1 INJ *** A POLE BARN BUILDING ON STATE LINE ROAD AND
SWISS ROAD NEAR WINSLOW WAS BLOWN DOWN. ONE PERSON WAS
INJURED WITH SEVERAL FRACTURES.


&&

$$

14

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KLOT [011118]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 011118
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
618 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 AM HAIL ELGIN 42.04N 88.29W
08/01/2008 E0.50 INCH KANE IL AIRPLANE PILOT

AT US 20 AND RANDALL RD.


&&

$$

ACS

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 010854
SWOD48
SPC AC 010853

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE MIDWEST
STATES WILL BE SUPPRESSED WWD INTO THE WRN U.S. WITH TIME...AS
CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVES SSEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THE EVOLUTION
OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE THROUGH DAYS 7-8...THOUGH THEY
DIFFER MORE SUBSTANTIALLY -- BEGINNING ROUGHLY DAY 6 -- IN PLACEMENT
OF THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF
THE CONUS.

IN THE MEAN TIME...SMALL-SCALE FEATURES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST -- THROUGH FAST WLY FLOW ON THE NRN SIDE
OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE -- WILL SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION DAYS 4-5.
THE PRIMARY THREAT DAY 4 /MON. AUG. 4/ IS FORECAST FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THIS REGION.

THE THREAT DAY 5 /TUE. AUG. 5/ SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY SWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION...AS THE CANADIAN TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SWD. SEVERAL
EPISODES OF POTENTIALLY-SEVERE STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL -- ARE FORECAST IN THE DAY 4-5 TIME FRAME.

WHILE ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST INVOF THE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE
CONUS...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY PRECLUDE THE
ISSUANCE OF ANY OUTLOOK AREAS BEYOND DAY 5.

..GOSS.. 08/01/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 010729
SWODY3
SPC AC 010727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN TO DEAMPLIFY SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE CONUS THIS
PERIOD...AS THE ERN U.S. TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD INTO THE NWRN
ATLANTIC...AND THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE IS FLATTENED A BIT AS SEVERAL
SMALL-SCALE FEATURES PROGRESS ANTICYCLONICALLY EWD AROUND THE NRN
SIDE OF THIS FEATURE.

PERSISTENT WLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A
SURFACE LOW OVER SD/NEB...WITH WARM ADVECTION NE OF THIS LOW AND ELY
UPSLOPE FLOW TO ITS NW BOTH LIKELY TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS.

...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA -- ACCOMPANIED BY A LINGERING SEVERE THREAT.
HOWEVER...AS ONGOING STORMS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...CAPPING SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN HINDER NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON DESPITE STRONG DESTABILIZATION.

AS THE RIDGE ALOFT FLATTENS SLIGHTLY WITH THE CONTINUED PASSAGE OF
WEAK FEATURES MOVING ANTICYCLONICALLY EWD...STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON -- MAINLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT
EXPECTED TO LIE W-E FROM NRN NEB/SRN SD EWD INTO IA...AND THEN SEWD
ALONG THE MS RIVER. STORMS MAY THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL JET DIURNALLY INCREASES. ALONG WITH AMPLE
INSTABILITY...PERSISTENT BELT OF ENHANCED WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS...WITH SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE/SPREAD ESEWD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
MODEST MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT ELY UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND ENHANCED WLY FLOW IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS. WHILE A SECONDARY AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR AS FAR
W AS SWRN MT...THE MAIN THREAT IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
WY...SERN MT...AND WRN SD AND VICINITY. STORMS SHOULD INITIATE BY
LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE/SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE
EVENING AS ELY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES.

...THE SOUTHEAST...
MOIST/DESTABILIZING AFTERNOON AIRMASS INVOF LINGERING SURFACE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SCATTERED STRONG/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS
FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS WSWWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. THREAT
WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNAL IN NATURE...DECREASING AFTER PEAK HEATING.

..GOSS.. 08/01/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 010603
SWODY2
SPC AC 010600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION....

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN 2/3 OF THE
CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE W COAST...A LARGE RIDGE
PREVAILING ACROSS THE CENTRAL 2/3 OF THE CONUS...AND AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE NORTHEAST SURROUNDED BY A BROAD ZONE OF CYCLONIC FLOW.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL MOVE STEADILY EWD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...AND SWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
MEANWHILE...WRN PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND NWWD FROM THE MID
MS VALLEY REGION INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WHILE A SECOND BAROCLINIC
ZONE LINGERS OVER MT AND THE NWRN CONUS.

...NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES SW OF THE NW-SE SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...CAPPING SHOULD HINDER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THIS PERIOD.

ISOLATED STORMS AND A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT MAY BE ONGOING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS EARLY...AIDED BY WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE
NOSE OF A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET. ANY ONGOING STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH ANY NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT NOT EXPECTED
UNTIL AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON.

AS AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE...MIXING MAY ALLOW CAP TO
WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY IN A FEW AREAS TO ALLOW ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT -- LIKELY TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT. ANY
SUSTAINED STORM WHICH WOULD DEVELOP WOULD -- DUE TO THE
FAVORABLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT -- BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...ACCOMPANIED
BY A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH THE
EVENING -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN...AS LOW-LEVEL
JET RE-INTENSIFIES. SHOULD AMPLE DEVELOPMENT OCCUR TO ALLOW UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO AN MCS...STORMS WOULD LIKELY ACCELERATE SEWD ACCOMPANIED
BY A THREAT FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS. ATTM...POTENTIAL FOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO CAPPING...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN
ONLY 15% SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION.

...MID-ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
AS UPPER VORTEX EVOLVES OVER THE NERN CONUS WITH TIME...A LOBE OF
VORTICITY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND/THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ATTM...THE NAM FORECASTS A LOW OVER SRN NEW
ENGLAND ALONG A N-S SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN CANADA INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING E OF THIS LOW ACROSS SRN
NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WOULD FAVOR AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS...AS WARM SECTOR AIRMASS DESTABILIZES BENEATH 30 TO 35
KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET. THE GFS HOWEVER DEPICTS THE SURFACE LOW OFF
THE NJ COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND THUS MORE STABLE/ONSHORE
FLOW OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND.

ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...AS OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT -- BUT THREAT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL UPON LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT --
WHICH IS LIKEWISE TIED TO THE EWD PROGRESS OF THE MAIN SURFACE
TROUGH.

...THE SOUTHEAST...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INVOF
SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT...AND BENEATH LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.
AMPLE INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED NEAR/S OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH
MODERATE FLOW ALOFT COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER/MULTICELL
CLUSTERS...ACCOMPANIED BY THE LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS
SOME MARGINAL HAIL. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK THIS FORECAST...PORTIONS
OF THE AREA MAY REQUIRE A SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE IN LATER FORECASTS.

...SRN AZ...
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN AZ IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATE ELY
MID-LEVEL FLOW S OF RIDGE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES MAY RESULT IN
HIGH-BASED STORMS WHICH MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY/DAMAGING
WINDS AS EVAPORATIVELY-DRIVEN DOWNDRAFTS REACH THE SURFACE.

..GOSS.. 08/01/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010533
SWODY1
SPC AC 010530

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
REGIONS TO MID MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN FCST TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN
HALF OF CONUS...AS WRN MEAN RIDGE FURTHER AMPLIFIES AND TROUGHING
DEEPENS OVER GREAT LAKES. LATTER PROCESS WILL BE AIDED BY SEWD
MOVEMENT AND STRENGTHENING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW BREAKING OFF
SERN END OF SASK TROUGH...AND EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
INVOF MB/ONT BORDER. BY 2/12Z...STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND
FROM SRN ONT SWWD TO SSWWD ACROSS WV. BY 2/00Z...ASSOCIATED SFC
COLD FRONT -- NOW MOVING SWD OVER IA AND CENTRAL PLAINS -- SHOULD
REACH SRN ONT...WRN OH...SRN IL...AND CENTRAL MO...BECOMING
QUASISTATIONARY WWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS...THEN DIFFUSE WARM FRONT OVER
W-CENTRAL/W KS AND E-CENTRAL/NERN CO.

BY 2/12Z...NWRN FRINGE OF HIGH PLAINS WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL
BUILD/MOVE NWD AND LINK WITH LEE-SIDE SFC LOW INVOF SWRN ND/SERN
MT/NWRN SD. THIS LOW SHOULD DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO MID-UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APCHG BC/WA COAST...AND FCST OVER CANADIAN
ROCKIES BY END OF PERIOD. OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD EXTEND NWD
FROM SFC LOW ACROSS WRN ND OVER SERN SASK AT THAT TIME...WITH COLD
FRONT SWWD OVER WRN WY.

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGIONS TO MID MS VALLEY...
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT OVER LOWER
MI/NWRN OH/ERN INDIANA AREA DURING AFTERNOON. PATTERN FAVORS
RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED DAMAGING WIND PROBABILITIES ACROSS OH WHERE
ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO QUASI-LINEAR OR BOWING CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM AND MOVE SEWD TOWARD WV. FCST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST
PLUME OF FAVORABLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT EWD ACROSS
THIS REGION FROM SFC THROUGH 850 MB...COMBINING WITH SFC DIABATIC
HEATING TO BOOST MLCAPES INTO 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE
INDIANA/OH...DECREASING EWD INTO PA. STG WLY COMPONENT OF BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT WILL ACT TO REDUCE CONVERGENCE AND
HODOGRAPH SIZE...BUT ALSO...WILL YIELD NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES. MEANWHILE...DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR IS
FCST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT DAY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF SFC FRONT
AS TROUGH ALOFT APCHS AND HEIGHT GRADIENTS TIGHTEN...BENEATH NRN
PORTION OF STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER WINDS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WITH WWD EXTENT ALONG TRAILING PORTION COLD FRONT...AT
LEAST INTO CENTRAL MO. HOWEVER...OFFSETTING FACTORS INCLUDE
WEAKENING CONVERGENCE WITH WWD EXTENT. CAPPING WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/DURATION DURING MOST FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PERIOD OF LATE AFTERNOON. ANY TSTMS THAT CAN DEVELOP MAY BRIEFLY
PRODUCE HAIL OR STG-SVR DOWNBURSTS.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...LATE PERIOD...
COMBINATION OF MOIST AND WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
THETAE THROUGHOUT LATTER HALF OF PERIOD AHEAD OF SFC LOW AND COLD
FRONT...AND ALONG AND N OF SFC WARM FRONT. DESPITE RATHER SCANT SFC
MOISTURE...HIGH-BASED TSTMS WITH STG WINDS MAY DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL/ERN MT DURING AFTERNOON. MORE PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO IS FOR
ELEVATED TSTMS TO FORM LATE IN PERIOD FROM ERN MT ACROSS WRN ND.
STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT CONDITIONAL HAIL AND STG-SVR GUST POTENTIAL WITH SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE QUALITY/BREADTH OF SUPPORTIVE
MOISTURE RETURN FIELD.

...SERN CONUS...
ONGOING ACTIVITY HAS SHUNTED COLLECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WELL S OF
RESIDUAL/WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE. FORMER BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH SEA
BREEZE FRONTS AND NEWER OUTFLOWS DURING PERIOD...SHOULD BE PRIMARY
FOCI FOR DEVELOPMENT FROM SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN WWD ACROSS GULF
COASTAL STATES...INTO ARKLATEX REGION. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EACH ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK...SEVERAL
RELATIVELY DENSE CONCENTRATIONS OF MULTICELLULAR TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO
EVOLVE AND CONCENTRATE MRGL SVR WIND POTENTIAL DURING AFTERNOON.

..EDWARDS/SMITH.. 08/01/2008

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