KTFX [030357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 030357
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
956 PM MDT FRI NOV 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.83W
11/02/2007 M59 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

&&

$$

ACOHEN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030050
SWODY1
SPC AC 030047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT FRI NOV 02 2007

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS CONUS WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED LARGELY BY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
MID/UPPER RMS VALLEY...SEPARATE TROUGH WITH NEARLY CURT-OFF LOW OVER
CA...AND BROAD UPPER LOW MOVING OFFSHORE CAROLINAS BEFORE 3/12Z.
AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF CONUS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY...STABLE AND/OR
DEFICIENT IN LIFT TO YIELD TSTM THREAT.

..CAROLINAS COAST...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN SMALL BANDS AND CLUSTERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR COAST...AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE NEAR
IMMEDIATE COAST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TO EXTENT THAT CHS/MHX RAOBS
SAMPLED WRN EXTENT OF AIR MASS -- ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG/ELEVATED
LOW LEVEL WAA ATOP RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER -- SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY MAY EXTEND INTO THERMAL ZONES FAVORABLE FOR ICE PROCESSES
TO SUPPORT LTG. HOWEVER...STRONGEST BUOYANCY AND LIFT ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH REST OF PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL
SUFFICIENTLY LOW OVER LAND TO PRECLUDE GEN THUNDER OUTLOOK. THIS
WILL BE REFLECTED IN AOA 10% CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES OVER ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR 03Z-12Z PERIOD...IN SPC EXPERIMENTAL/ENHANCED TSTM
PRODUCT.

.EDWARDS.. 11/03/2007

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KPAH [022330]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KPAH 022330
LSRPAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
629 PM CDT FRI NOV 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0807 PM TORNADO 8 ESE MURRAY 36.57N 88.18W
10/18/2007 CALLOWAY KY NWS STORM SURVEY

LATE REPORT...STORM DAMAGE SURVEY REVEALED THAT NUMEROUS
TREES WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED. ONE HOME RECEIVED ROOF
DAMAGE FROM FALLEN TREES. TORNADO RATED EF-1 WITH PEAK
WINDS OF 95 MPH.

0823 PM TORNADO 1 SW LINTON 36.68N 87.93W
10/18/2007 TRIGG KY NWS STORM SURVEY

LATE REPORT...STORM DAMAGE SURVEY REVEALED SEVERAL TREES
UPROOTED ON A 1 MILE PATH THROUGH THE LBL. TORNADO RATED
EF-0 WITH PEAK WINDS OF 80 MPH.

&&

$$

DRS

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KMHX [022152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 022152
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
552 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 13 S NAGS HEAD 35.76N 75.63W
11/02/2007 M40 MPH AMZ135 NC MESONET

40 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS RECORED NEAR OREGON INLET AT 545
PM AND 1 PM

&&

$$

JELARDO

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KMHX [022137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KMHX 022137
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
537 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HIGH SUST WINDS CEDAR ISLAND 35.00N 76.33W
11/02/2007 M43.00 MPH CARTERET NC OFFICIAL NWS OBS

SUSTAINED WINDS 43 MPH RECORDED AT THE CEDAR ISLAND FERRY
TERMINAL 3 PM

0400 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 1 W EAST LAKE 35.87N 75.98W
11/02/2007 E46.00 MPH DARE NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ALLIGATOR RIVER BRIDGE REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH
AT 5 PM AND 40 MPH AT 2 PM.

&&

$$

JELARDO

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KMHX [022131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 022131
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
531 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM HIGH SUST WINDS 1 W EAST LAKE 35.87N 75.98W
11/02/2007 E0 MPH DARE NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

ALLIGATOR RIVER BRIDGE REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH
AT 5 PM AND 40 MPH AT 2 PM.

&&

$$

JELARDO

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KMHX [022113]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 022113
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
513 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CEDAR ISLAND 35.00N 76.33W
11/02/2007 M51 MPH CARTERET NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

51 MPH PEAK WIND GUST CEDAR ISLAND FERRY TERMINAL-TIME
UNKOWN.

&&

$$

JELARDO

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KMHX [022102]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 022102
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
502 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM STORM SURGE HARLOWE 34.84N 76.74W
11/02/2007 E4.00 FT CARTERET NC PUBLIC

WATER LEVEL HAD RISEN TO ABOUT 4 FEET AT CLUB FOOT CREEK
AND 2.5 FEET ADAMS CREEK

&&

$$

JELARDO

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KMHX [022059]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 022059
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
459 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0345 PM NON-TSTM WND GST OCRACOKE 35.10N 75.98W
11/02/2007 M63 MPH HYDE NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

OCRACOKE FERRY TERMINAL REPORTED A 63 MPH WIND GUST
AROUND 345 PM.

&&

$$

JELARDO

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021950
SWODY1
SPC AC 021948

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT FRI NOV 02 2007

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA/THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PROGRESS
SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE TROPICAL SYSTEM
NOEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NNEWD.

A LACK OF INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY INDICATED INVOF THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS...ON WRN FRINGE OF NOEL. WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10%. ELSEWHERE...WITH SEASONABLY-COOL/STABLE
AIRMASS PREVAILING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

.GOSS.. 11/02/2007

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KTFX [021856]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 021856
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1256 PM MDT FRI NOV 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CHINOOK 48.59N 109.23W
11/01/2007 M65 MPH BLAINE MT CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

DEZ

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KMHX [021734]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 021734
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
134 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0131 PM HIGH SURF RODANTHE 35.61N 75.46W
11/02/2007 DARE NC COUNTY OFFICIAL

BEGINNING TO SEE OCEAN OVERWASH IN RODANTHE.

&&

$$

CQUELL

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 021726
SWODY2
SPC AC 021724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT FRI NOV 02 2007

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN FEATURING A WRN RIDGE AND AN ERN TROUGH WILL PREVAIL
THIS PERIOD...WITH THE ERN TROUGH PROGRESSING SLOWLY EWD WITH TIME.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WRN 2/3 OF
THE CONUS...WITH COOL/STABLE AIR OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS IN
THE WAKE OF AN EARLIER COLD-FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE/STABLE AIR PREVAILING...THUNDER THREAT ACROSS THE CONUS
APPEARS MINIMAL THIS PERIOD.

.GOSS.. 11/02/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021621
SWODY1
SPC AC 021618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT FRI NOV 02 2007

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CONUS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. HERE STRONG
NELY LOW LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING HRCN NOEL WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH VALUES OF H85 THETA-E NEAR THE COAST. WEAK ASCENT
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING AWAY FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS
LATER TODAY MAY SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS AS MARGINAL MUCAPE DEVELOPS LATER TODAY.

.EVANS.. 11/02/2007

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KCHS [021607]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 021607
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1206 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM RIP CURRENTS ISLE OF PALMS 32.79N 79.79W
11/02/2007 CHARLESTON SC PUBLIC

STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND 4-5 FOOT BREAKERS BETWEEN THE
PIER AND 31ST AVE.

&&

$$

RJB

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KJAX [021556]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 021556
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1156 AM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1153 AM HIGH SURF JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.39W
11/02/2007 DUVAL FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

THE JACKSONVILLE BEACH LIFE GUARD STATION REPORTED
BREAKER HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET WITH SOME OCCASIONAL 8 TO
10 FOOT BREAKERS.

&&

$$

ECZ

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KJAX [021233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 021233
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
832 AM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HIGH SURF ST. AUGUSTINE 29.89N 81.31W
11/02/2007 ST. JOHNS FL PUBLIC

BREAKER HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET REPORTED AT THE
BEACHES...WITH AN OCCASIONAL 7 FOOT BREAKER.

0800 AM HIGH SURF JACKSONVILLE BEACH 30.28N 81.39W
11/02/2007 DUVAL FL PUBLIC

BREAKER HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET REPORTED AT THE
JACKSONVILLE BEACH PIER...WITH AN OCCASIONAL 7 FOOT
BREAKER.

&&

$$

ECZ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021224
SWODY1
SPC AC 021221

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT FRI NOV 02 2007

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE CONUS TODAY
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE W AND A TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN
CAROLINAS...WHERE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE NOEL AS IT PASSES TO THE E AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...WITH ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A LAKE
INDUCED LIGHTNING STRIKE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. A REINFORCING AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE...SPREADING COOL AND DRY AIR
SWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS STATES.

..ERN CAROLINAS...
MOIST ELY FLOW IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NOEL MOVES NNEWD. MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL
COOLING WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD AND WILL RESULT IN
WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MAINLY IN THE 800-650 MB LAYER.
NAM...NAMKF AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 200-400 J/KG MUCAPE
DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN NC AND PERHAPS FAR NERN SC.
THESE MODELS PRODUCE PRECIPITATION AS UPPER TROUGH INTERACTS WITH
THE MODEST ELEVATED MOIST PLUME. THE GFS MODEL...HOWEVER...IS LESS
BULLISH WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHICH IS ALSO A
REASONABLE SOLUTION GIVEN SOME SUBSIDENCE AROUND NOEL. THE END
RESULT IS LOW THUNDER PROBABILITIES. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH VERY SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
RELATIVELY SUSTAINED STORM CELLS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE EVENING.

.JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 11/02/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 020901
SWOD48
SPC AC 020900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT FRI NOV 02 2007

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
U.S. THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH NWLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CNTRL STATES. THIS WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BE FAVORABLE TO USHER AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. WITH A COOL DRY
AIRMASS DOMINATING THE CONUS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF COAST STATES AND IN THE SRN
PLAINS AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH MOVES SWD ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE DAY 4 TO 8 DAY
PERIOD APPEARS VERY LOW ATTM.

.BROYLES.. 11/02/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 020721
SWODY3
SPC AC 020719

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT FRI NOV 02 2007

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD SATURDAY NIGHT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WILL MOVE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY. A SFC TROUGH
OVER TX AND SELY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH TX SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...A BOUNDARY WILL NOT BE IN PLACE ACROSS TX AND
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APPEARS INSUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

.BROYLES.. 11/02/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 020553
SWODY2
SPC AC 020551

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT FRI NOV 02 2007

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS MOVE A NRN MS VALLEY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NWLY FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES WILL DRIVE AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SEWD
INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN NLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. WHICH WILL SUPPRESS
MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHER SFC
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...LIFT IN THIS REGION IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE ADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.BROYLES.. 11/02/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020508
SWODY1
SPC AC 020505

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CDT FRI NOV 02 2007

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE CONUS TODAY
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE W AND A TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN
CAROLINAS...WHERE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE NOEL AS IT PASSES TO THE E AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...WITH ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A LAKE
INDUCED LIGHTNING STRIKE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. A REINFORCING AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE...SPREADING COOL AND DRY AIR
SWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS STATES.

..ERN CAROLINAS...
WARM AND MOIST ELY FLOW IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NOEL MOVES NNEWD. MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL
COOLING WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD AND WILL RESULT IN
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MAINLY IN THE 800-650 MB LAYER. NAM AND
NAMKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 200-400 J/KG MUCAPE DEVELOPING
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. COMBINATION OF
WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH VERY SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
RELATIVELY SUSTAINED STORM CELLS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE EVENING.

.JEWELL.. 11/02/2007

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