Friday, October 12, 2007

KTOP [130319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 130319
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1019 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1005 PM HAIL ALTA VISTA 38.86N 96.49W
10/12/2007 E0.88 INCH WABAUNSEE KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JL

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2068

ACUS11 KWNS 130307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130306
KSZ000-NEZ000-130500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2068
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1006 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND NRN KS INTO SERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 130306Z - 130500Z

ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH 06Z WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE
MOST INTENSE CELLS.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE WRN OK PNHDL WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ARCING NEWD TO N OF GCK/DDC AND THEN MORE EWD
TO NEAR ICT AND CNU. REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW THAT SLY LLJ HAS
INCREASED TO 40-45 KT FROM WRN PARTS OF TX/OK INTO N-CNTRL
KS...EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING MOISTURE/THERMAL ADVECTION TO THE N OF
WARM FRONT WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG FOR PARCELS ORIGINATING
FROM 780-750 MB.

A TSTM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM FRONT NE OF GCK WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL INTO NERN KS. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/WAA ALONG INTENSIFYING LLJ AND ABOVE NEAR-SURFACE FRONTAL
INVERSION SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY TONIGHT ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA. THE MODEST CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

.MEAD.. 10/13/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

38339989 38860001 39699922 39949839 40359756 40419680
40159582 39669567 39129554 38469576 38199716 38259903

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130040
SWODY1
SPC AC 130037

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..CNTRL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...
LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING BETWEEN COMPLEX DEEP-LAYER
CYCLONE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG TROUGH ADVANCING EAST
FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF
SLOPED/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. RESULTING
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS FORECAST TO OCCUR COINCIDENT
WITH DYNAMIC/ADIABATIC COOLING ALOFT SO THAT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITHIN THE ZONE OF
STRONGEST ASCENT. SUBSEQUENT TSTM/MCS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND EXPAND PRIMARILY ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER AREA...AND
THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS NERN KS/WRN IA/NWRN MO THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ROOTED WITHIN THE 800-700MB
LAYER WHERE PARCELS...ORIGINATING WITHIN MOIST AXIS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...REACH AN LFC WELL REMOVED FROM NEAR SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY. SHEAR AND FORCING SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW
ROBUST ROTATING UPDRAFTS DECOUPLED FROM THE SURFACE LAYER AND
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A COUPLE TO A FEW HAIL EVENTS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT
INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER PROBS/SLGT RISK AT THIS TIME.

.CARBIN.. 10/13/2007

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KICT [122322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 122322
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
622 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0539 PM TSTM WND GST 7 SSE WELLINGTON 37.18N 97.35W
10/12/2007 M67 MPH SUMNER KS TRAINED SPOTTER

67 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED WITH HOME OBSERVING EQUIPMENT.


&&

$$

ADK

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KICT [122240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 122240
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
540 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0537 PM HAIL 5 S WELLINGTON 37.20N 97.40W
10/12/2007 E1.00 INCH SUMNER KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

BDK

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KTOP [122117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KTOP 122117
LSRTOP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
417 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0414 PM HAIL MINNEAPOLIS 39.12N 97.71W
10/12/2007 M1.75 INCH OTTAWA KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL, UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE, COVERING THE GROUND.


&&

$$

JL

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KICT [122056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KICT 122056
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
355 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0804 AM FLOOD LINCOLN 39.04N 98.15W
10/12/2007 LINCOLN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW STALLED VEHICLES REPORTED DUE TO STREET FLOODING.

0823 AM HAIL BEVERLY 39.01N 97.98W
10/12/2007 E0.75 INCH LINCOLN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0950 AM FLOOD 2 N GLENDALE 38.93N 97.87W
10/12/2007 SALINE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER OVER COUNTY ROAD.

1020 AM FLASH FLOOD LINCOLN 39.04N 98.15W
10/12/2007 LINCOLN KS EMERGENCY MNGR

SAND BAGGING WAS IN PROGRESS AROUND 2 HOMES. ALSO, SOUTH
STREET WAS CLOSED AT LINCOLN AVENUE.

1026 AM HEAVY RAIN WESTFALL 38.93N 98.00W
10/12/2007 M2.20 INCH LINCOLN KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1219 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE LINCOLN 39.05N 98.14W
10/12/2007 M3.80 INCH LINCOLN KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

KED

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KLBF [122053]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 122053
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
352 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0350 PM HAIL 8 ENE BRADY 41.07N 100.23W
10/12/2007 E1.00 INCH CUSTER NE PUBLIC

HAILING OFF AND ON FOR LAST 30 MINUTES. HAIL AS LARGE AS
QUARTERS AND GROUND IS WHITE.


&&

$$

HENDERSON

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KLBF [122049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 122049
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
349 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0315 PM HAIL 24 W OCONTO 41.14N 100.22W
10/12/2007 E0.75 INCH CUSTER NE PUBLIC

HAIL MOSTLY SMALLER BUT A FEW PENNIES. 1.34 INCHES OF
RAINFALL OVER PAST HOUR.


&&

$$

HENDERSON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121945
SWODY1
SPC AC 121942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

..SRN HIGH PLAINS...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER SERN CO WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SSWWD THROUGH THE WRN
OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO SERN NM. THIS DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY...DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS REMAINING UPSTREAM OVER THE SW
STATES AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN/DESERT SW
THROUGH TONIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED THE COMBINATION OF
SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS WEAKENED INHIBITION FOR SURFACE BASED CU
FORMATION ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM...AS INDICATED
BY VISIBLE IMAGERY. DESPITE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...SLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE INFLUX TO SUPPORT INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND EVENTUAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MUCAPE VALUES ALREADY UP
TO 2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH WLY MID LEVEL WINDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASING ATTENDANT TO JET STREAK TRANSLATING ACROSS NM ATTM...A
SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR PART OF FAR ERN NM INTO W TX.
THIS SCENARIO FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION IS SUPPORTED
BY 18Z RUC WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP NWD INTO SWRN
KS BY 13/03Z FOR A MORE CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGEST A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

..CENTRAL PLAINS...
BULK OF ONGOING WAA TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL KS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED NORTH OF ATTENDANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED
FROM SERN KS TO NEAR ICT AND THEN NWWD INTO NWRN KS. WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS NERN CO...NRN KS/SRN NEB AND
EVENTUALLY INTO NWRN MO/SWRN IA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND CLOUD LAYER SHEAR OF 35 KT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS.

.PETERS.. 10/12/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2067

ACUS11 KWNS 121928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121927
TXZ000-NMZ000-122030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2067
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NM...NWRN TX

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 121927Z - 122030Z

SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS ERN NM INTO THE TX
SOUTH PLAINS...MAINLY JUST WEST OF ERODED EARLY MORNING STRATUS
DECK. AS A RESULT...MID-UPPER 80S TEMPERATURES HAVE ALL BUT REMOVED
INHIBITION ALONG A NARROW AXIS NEAR THE DRY LINE. THIS IS EVIDENT
BY RECENT BOUNDARY LAYER CU DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION. ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...IN EXCESS OF 9 C/KM...AND MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500
J/KG...SUGGEST ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR
PERHAPS LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS...AS DID DEEP CONVECTION THE LAST
FEW AFTERNOONS. WILL UPDATE THE 20Z OUTLOOK TO REFLECT THIS
LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT.

.DARROW.. 10/12/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

33700368 34240268 34790238 35890232 35660116 34050166
33070297

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KMFL [121903]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMFL 121903
LSRMFL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
303 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 PM WATER SPOUT 8 ENE FORT LAUDERDALE 26.16N 80.03W
10/12/2007 AMZ651 FL AIRPLANE PILOT

PILOT REPORTED THROUGH CWSU WATERSPOUT 8 MILES EAST OF
FORT LAUDERDALE EXECUTIVE AIRPORT.

1230 PM WATER SPOUT 5 E FORT LAUDERDALE 26.12N 80.07W
10/12/2007 AMZ651 FL ASOS

FLL ASOS METAR REPORTED WATERSPOUT BEGINNING 1230 PM
ENDING 1239 PM 3 MILES EAST. MOVEMENT WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

1235 PM WATER SPOUT 5 E PORT EVERGLADES 26.10N 80.04W
10/12/2007 AMZ651 FL NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED WATERSPOUT WITHIN 5 MILES OFF THE
COAST MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWEST. LIFTED BEFORE REACHING THE
COAST.


&&

$$

SANTOS

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KICT [121740]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 121740
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1239 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1219 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE LINCOLN 39.05N 98.14W
10/12/2007 M3.80 INCH LINCOLN KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

CDJ

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 121718
SWODY2
SPC AC 121716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD ENEWD FROM THE DESERT SW/GREAT
BASIN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS DURING DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD. HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL SUPPORT A LEE CYCLONE OVER SERN CO WHICH SHOULD TRACK NEWD
THROUGH WRN KS SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EWD THROUGH
NRN KS TO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A DRY LINE EXTENDS SWD
FROM WRN KS TO W TX SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

..ERN CO/PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN NEB SWD TO TX PANHANDLE...
NWD RETURN OF MODIFIED CP AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE INTO DAY 2...BUT
SHOULD REACH FARTHER N INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITHIN SLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO THE EAST OF CO SURFACE LOW. MODEST MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH
PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/
EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUGGESTS WARM SECTOR WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED STORMS MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...BY LATE AFTERNOON EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID
LEVEL JET WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL ASCENT ATTENDING THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
IN THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED REGIME OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AS IT SPREADS EWD INTO THE MOIST AXIS. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND.

THE SRN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL
INTO SWRN KS IS FORECAST TO BE CONDITIONAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. ALL
MORNING MODEL RUNS...EXCEPT THE 12Z NAM WHICH INDICATED GREATER
MOISTURE RETURN...SHOWED THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING CAPPED BENEATH
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND NO TSTM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AT LEAST 14/06Z.
EVEN THE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE NAM DID NOT INDICATE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO KS UNTIL 14/06-09Z. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE MODIFIED CP AIR MASS RETURNING NWD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME INDICATION FOR WEAK FORCING TO SPREAD EWD
INTO WRN KS TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY 14/00Z AHEAD OF APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. THIS WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTMS...
SOME SUPERCELLS...AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG AND E OF THE DRY LINE. IN
ADDITION TO CONDITIONAL HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA
OF KS TO OK/TX PANHANDLES...STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ FROM W TX TO KS
SATURDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE IN PART TO STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR TORNADO THREAT.
THUS...GIVEN CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THIS OUTLOOK
HAS EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SWD INTO PART OF WRN KS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NORTH OF WARM FRONT
ACROSS NEB WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ATTENDING
STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
ELEVATED WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

.PETERS.. 10/12/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121612
SWODY1
SPC AC 121609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN/DESERT SW
THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. AT THE SFC...A LEE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE TSTMS COULD POSE A SVR HAIL THREAT.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF THE SWRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH.


..SRN HIGH PLAINS...
A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE KS/CO AND NM/TX BORDER THIS MORNING
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST. MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE FROM
1000-1500 J/KG/ SUPPORTED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 DEG
C/KM/ AND SFC DEWPTS IN THE 55-60 DEG F RANGE WILL EXIST OVER THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH TIME...AS MID
LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO AROUND 30 KTS AHEAD OF GREAT BASIN UPPER
TROUGH. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK DURING PEAK
HEATING PERIOD...AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS REGION. SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE TROUGH MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND AFOREMENTIONED
SHEAR/INSTABILITY WOULD FAVOR A SVR HAIL THREAT WITH ANY TSTM THAT
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...LOW SVR HAIL PROBABILITIES WILL CONTINUE...GIVEN
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF THE SVR
THREAT.

..CENTRAL PLAINS...
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER KS/NWRN OK IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WANE
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL JET/INFLOW WEAKENS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS NERN CO...NRN
KS/SRN NEB AND EVENTUALLY INTO NWRN MO/SWRN IA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. 1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND 35 KTS OF CLOUD LAYER
SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SVR HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST TSTMS.

.CROSBIE/HALES.. 10/12/2007

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KICT [121527]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 121527
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1027 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1026 AM HEAVY RAIN WESTFALL 38.93N 98.00W
10/12/2007 M2.20 INCH LINCOLN KS TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

LFW

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KICT [121525]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 121525
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1025 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 AM FLASH FLOOD LINCOLN 39.04N 98.15W
10/12/2007 LINCOLN KS EMERGENCY MNGR

SAND BAGGING WAS IN PROGRESS AROUND 2 HOMES. ALSO, SOUTH
STREET WAS CLOSED AT LINCOLN AVENUE.


&&

$$

KED

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KDVN [121519]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDVN 121519
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1019 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM HEAVY RAIN PARK VIEW 41.69N 90.54W
08/19/2007 M0.50 INCH SCOTT IA NWS EMPLOYEE

ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IN 6 MINUTES. MINOR STREET
FLOODING.

0336 PM HEAVY RAIN STANLEY 42.64N 91.81W
08/19/2007 M0.70 INCH BUCHANAN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

.70 INCHES OF RAIN IN 14 MINUTES

0345 PM HEAVY RAIN OQUAWKA 40.94N 90.95W
08/19/2007 E1.00 INCH HENDERSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN IN PAST 45 MINUTES.

0352 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 N JESUP 42.55N 92.07W
08/19/2007 M1.50 INCH BUCHANAN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

IN THE PAST HOUR.

0540 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 N MUSCATINE 41.42N 91.06W
08/19/2007 M1.70 INCH MUSCATINE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 1 PM.

0650 PM HEAVY RAIN STANLEY 42.64N 91.81W
08/19/2007 M1.19 INCH BUCHANAN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 317 P.M.

0808 PM HEAVY RAIN ASBURY 42.51N 90.76W
08/19/2007 M1.30 INCH DUBUQUE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

1.0 INCH OF RAIN SINCE 430 PM...DAILY TOTAL SO FAR 1.30
INCHES.

0815 PM FLASH FLOOD INDEPENDENCE 42.47N 91.89W
08/19/2007 BUCHANAN IA EMERGENCY MNGR

WATER COVERING US HWY 150 ABOUT 1 FOOT DEEP. WATER
FLOODING A FEW BASEMENTS ON NE SIDE OF INDEPENDENCE.
DELAYED REPORT.

0838 PM HEAVY RAIN EDGEWOOD 42.64N 91.40W
08/19/2007 M1.60 INCH DELAWARE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAIN FALL SINCE 2 PM.

0900 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 ENE INDEPENDENCE 42.50N 91.80W
08/19/2007 E0.00 INCH BUCHANAN IA CO-OP OBSERVER

DELAYED REPORT. CO-OP REPORTED THAT SEVERAL CREEKS WERE
OUT OF THEIR BANKS BUT NOT IMPACTING ANY ROADS OR
PROPERTY.

0923 PM HEAVY RAIN N AURORA 42.62N 91.73W
08/19/2007 M1.00 INCH BUCHANAN IA TRAINED SPOTTER

AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN PAST 20 MINUTES...AND 2.90
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE 315 P.M.

0930 PM HEAVY RAIN DYERSVILLE 42.48N 91.12W
08/19/2007 M1.50 INCH DUBUQUE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL SINCE 3 PM. GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED.

1110 PM HEAVY RAIN SOLON 41.81N 91.49W
08/19/2007 M1.90 INCH JOHNSON IA TRAINED SPOTTER

1.90 INCHES OF RAIN IN 60 MINUTES.

1135 PM HEAVY RAIN STANLEY 42.64N 91.81W
08/19/2007 M2.26 INCH BUCHANAN IA PUBLIC

SINCE 317 PM. STILL RAINING LIGHTLY.

1135 PM HEAVY RAIN SOLON 41.81N 91.49W
08/19/2007 M2.59 INCH JOHNSON IA TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE 1015 PM. NO MAJOR WATER PROBLEMS.

0445 AM HEAVY RAIN SHERRARD 41.32N 90.51W
08/20/2007 M1.20 INCH MERCER IL TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

0500 AM HEAVY RAIN EDGEWOOD 42.64N 91.40W
08/20/2007 M2.90 INCH DELAWARE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL AS OF 5 AM.

0530 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SSW DAVENPORT 41.54N 90.61W
08/20/2007 M1.11 INCH SCOTT IA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

0630 AM HEAVY RAIN ESE SOLON 41.81N 91.49W
08/20/2007 M2.72 INCH JOHNSON IA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN WSW PARK VIEW 41.69N 90.54W
08/20/2007 M1.43 INCH SCOTT IA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW FREEPORT 42.31N 89.66W
08/20/2007 M1.11 INCH STEPHENSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN W NORWAY 41.90N 91.92W
08/20/2007 M1.69 INCH BENTON IA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN NNE MANCHESTER 42.49N 91.46W
08/20/2007 M2.20 INCH DELAWARE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN W GERMAN VALLEY 42.22N 89.48W
08/20/2007 M1.24 INCH STEPHENSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 N FREEPORT 42.33N 89.63W
08/20/2007 M1.37 INCH STEPHENSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

0705 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW ORANGEVILLE 42.49N 89.67W
08/20/2007 M1.84 INCH STEPHENSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

0705 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N PRINCETON 41.37N 89.45W
08/20/2007 M1.83 INCH BUREAU IL TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR RAINFALL

0706 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 E DUBUQUE 42.50N 90.67W
08/20/2007 M1.73 INCH DUBUQUE IA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

0730 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW FREEPORT 42.31N 89.66W
08/20/2007 M1.11 INCH STEPHENSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

0733 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 NW KEWANEE 41.26N 89.96W
08/20/2007 M2.50 INCH HENRY IL TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SINCE NOON SUNDAY.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE LE CLAIRE 41.61N 90.36W
08/20/2007 M1.33 INCH SCOTT IA TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS REPORT

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN ATKINSON 41.42N 90.01W
08/20/2007 M1.47 INCH HENRY IL TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HR TOTAL


&&

$$

STORM DATA

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KICT [121459]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 121459
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
959 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0950 AM FLOOD 2 N GLENDALE 38.93N 97.87W
10/12/2007 SALINE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER OVER COUNTY ROAD.


&&

$$

LFW

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KICT [121356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 121356
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
855 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0804 AM FLOOD LINCOLN 39.04N 98.15W
10/12/2007 LINCOLN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

A FEW STALLED VEHICLES REPORTED DUE TO STREET FLOODING.


&&

$$

KED

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KICT [121354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 121354
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
854 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0823 AM HAIL BEVERLY 39.01N 97.98W
10/12/2007 E0.75 INCH LINCOLN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

KED

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KCYS [121322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 121322
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
722 AM MDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0226 PM NON-TSTM WND GST BORDEAUX 41.95N 104.95W
10/02/2007 M68 MPH PLATTE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 50S AND 60S BETWEEN 11AM AND 3PM.

0730 AM HIGH SUST WINDS BUFORD 41.11N 105.30W
10/02/2007 M50 MPH ALBANY WY MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH AND GREATER AND GUSTS TO NEAR
70 MPH BETWEEN 7 AM AND 11 AM.


&&

$$

GRIFFITH

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121246
SWODY1
SPC AC 121243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
FAIRLY POTENT UPR LOW/TROUGH NOW OFF THE NRN CA CST SHOULD CONTINUE
E/SE TO NEAR SFO THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING MORE E INTO THE SRN GRT
BASIN EARLY SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...EXPECT DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE PLNS GIVEN SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION/EWD MOVEMENT OF
COMPLEX SYSTEM OVER THE GRT LKS/NORTHEAST.

AT THE SFC...A LEE LOW SHOULD CONSOLIDATE WITH TIME OVER THE SRN HI
PLNS AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE CNTRL/SRN RCKYS. PERSISTENT LOW LVL
RIDGING ACROSS THE NWRN GULF/LWR MS VLY...HOWEVER...WILL KEEP AXIS
OF BOUNDARY LYR MOISTURE RETURN COMPARATIVELY NARROW INVOF
STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS.

..CNTRL PLNS...
SCTD ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY IN AREA OF WAA
IN EXIT REGION OF LLJ OVER PARTS OF KS AND SRN NEB. ADDITIONAL BUT
MORE WIDELY SCTD DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO OCCUR SWD ALONG ERN SIDE OF
LLJ INTO WRN OK/NW TX. DIURNAL HEATING AND CONTINUED MOISTURE
INFLUX IN UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH THIS
AFTN/EVENING...AND YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
FARTHER SW...RELATIVELY WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT...ABSENCE OF SFC
FOCUSING MECHANISMS...AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS IN WARM SECTOR WILL BE LOW.

LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY EXPECT STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
FROM CNTRL/NRN KS INTO WRN/SRN NEB AND PERHAPS SW SD AS LLJ
INTENSIFIES IN RESPONSE TO BOTH DIURNAL INFLUENCES AND CONTINUED EWD
MOVEMENT OF CA TROUGH. STEEPENING MID LVL LAPSE
RATES AND 30-40 KT CLOUD-LYR SHEAR COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WITH SOME STORMS.

..SRN HI PLNS...
ISOLD LATE AFTN TSTMS MAY ONCE AGAIN FORM IN LOW LVL MOISTURE AXIS
FROM THE SW TX MOUNTAINS NNE INTO THE SRN HI PLNS. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 1000 J PER KG/ SHOULD DEVELOP TO SUPPORT
STRONG UPDRAFTS. BUT WEAKER UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO NEAR-SFC
WINDS...AND MORE ZONAL MID/UPR UPR FLOW...SUGGEST THAT COVERAGE OF
SUSTAINED ACTIVITY SHOULD BE REDUCED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS/POSSIBLE SHORT-LIVED
SUPERCELLS...SHOULD EXIST OVER W TX...WHERE A FEW HAIL REPORTS MAY
OCCUR.

.CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 10/12/2007

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KAMA [121058]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KAMA 121058
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
556 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 AM HAIL 11 NNW HOOVER 35.74N 100.94W
10/11/2007 E0.88 INCH ROBERTS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

ON STATE HIGHWAY 70...DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
REPORTED.


0839 AM HAIL 5 N PAMPA 35.62N 100.96W
10/11/2007 E1.00 INCH GRAY TX BROADCAST MEDIA


1110 AM HAIL 4 NNW HEDLEY 34.92N 100.68W
10/11/2007 E1.25 INCH DONLEY TX PUBLIC

HAIL QUARTER SIZE TO SLIGHTLY LESS THAN GOLFBALL SIZE


0438 PM HAIL 5 E BOOTLEG 34.83N 102.73W
10/11/2007 M1.00 INCH DEAF SMITH TX EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

EVENT NUMBER 00024 00023 00025 00027

$$

ERA

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2066

ACUS11 KWNS 121009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121009
KSZ000-NEZ000-121245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2066
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN NEB...NWRN/W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL KS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121009Z - 121245Z

THROUGH 12Z...ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE IN BELT FROM NEAR MCK SEWD TO BETWEEN RSL-CNK...WITH MORE
DISCRETE/ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE SWD TOWARD GBD-DDC AREAS.
MAIN CONCERN IS HAIL...SOME OF WHICH MAY REACH SVR LEVELS FOR SHORT
PERIODS IN MOST INTENSE CELLS.

VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOWS 30-40 KT LLJ FROM TX PANHANDLE NNEWD ACROSS
SWRN KS...BECOMING DIFLUENT FARTHER N INTO SRN NEB AND NE INTO
N-CENTRAL KS. KS PORTION LLJ IS 10-15 KT STRONGER THAN FCST BY
PRIOR RUC RUNS FOR SAME REGION...AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN NAM ON N
END...WITH DIFLUENT AREA FARTHER NE. THIS INDICATES STRONGER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PERHAPS LARGER VALUES OF ELEVATED MIXING
RATIO THAN INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE. TIME SERIES OF MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION ABOVE SFC WILL CONTINUE IN
DISCUSSION AREA...INCREASING LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BUOYANCY.
PARCELS ISENTROPICALLY RAISED TO LFC MAY ACCESS ELEVATED MUCAPES
500-1000 J/KG...AMIDST 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES -- MAINLY
BETWEEN MCK-CNK. LACK OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE AND SHEAR WILL LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR...THOUGH MRGL HAILSTONES ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

FURTHER EWD EXPANSION OF CONVECTIVE PLUME TOWARD MHK-TOP VICINITY IS
POSSIBLE ALSO AS NEWD EXTENSION OF LLJ VEERS AROUND 12Z.
HOWEVER...WEAKER MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY...AS WELL AS SHORTER DURATION
OF LLJ MAX AND ACCOMPANYING DESTABILIZATION...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
LOWER HAIL POTENTIAL THERE.

.EDWARDS.. 10/12/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

40320095 40079937 39679769 38979693 38419880 37829992
38800028

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 120905
SWOD48
SPC AC 120904

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0404 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

VALID 151200Z - 201200Z

..DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
THIS FORECAST. WHILE BOTH MODELS BRING A FEATURE INTO THE PLAINS
DAY 6 /I.E. WEDNESDAY OCT. 17/...THE ORIGIN OF THE FEATURE WITHIN
THE TWO MODELS IS OF DIFFERENT. BY DAY 7...CORRELATION BETWEEN THE
TWO MODELS HAS DECREASED FURTHER...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED
LOW OVER NERN NM AT 19/00Z...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OVER
IA. THUS...WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO DELINEATE ANY SEVERE AREA BEYOND DAY
6.

WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT AREA DAY 6 CENTERED ON KS/OK...BUT THIS IS A
RELATIVELY LOW-CONFIDENCE AREA DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED EVOLUTION
DIFFERENCES OF THE UPPER PATTERN BETWEEN THE MODELS. BOTH DO SHOW
THE PRESENCE OF A LEE LOW...AND SOME MOISTURE RETURN/DESTABILIZATION
INTO THE PLAINS. WITH FLOW ALOFT LIKELY SUPPORTIVE OF STORM
ORGANIZATION...POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS.

.GOSS.. 10/12/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 120731
SWODY3
SPC AC 120729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATELY-STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET. AT
THE SURFACE...LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS NRN KS/SRN
NEB...WHILE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS KS/OK/TX.

..CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OK...
DAY 3 IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO DAY 2...IN THAT
WARM-SECTOR CONVECTION SHOULD STAY LARGELY-SUPPRESSED BY MODEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPPING...WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD/ELEVATED STORMS
AND A LIMITED HAIL THREAT OCCUR WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME N OF
WARM FRONT.

POTENTIAL FOR WARM SECTOR STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DAY 3...AS
THE ENTRANCE-REGION OF THE UPPER JET SPREADS ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS KS/NEB. RESULTING UVV MAY POSSIBLY WEAKEN THE CAP TO A
GREATER DEGREE THAN ON DAY 2 INVOF THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH 50 KT SWLYS AT MID LEVELS SPREADING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATION WITHIN ANY UPDRAFTS WHICH DID
DEVELOP. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK/15% SEVERE PROBABILITY
FROM SRN NEB/THE MID MO VALLEY SWD INTO NRN OK.

.GOSS.. 10/12/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 120602
SWODY2
SPC AC 120600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN CO...NWRN
KS...AND NEB...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER ERN CANADA AND
INTO THE NERN CONUS...WHILE A SECOND TROUGH/LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING THE PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...AS RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS IS SHUNTED EWD WITH TIME.

AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...A SUB-1000 MB LOW IS FORECAST INVOF WRN KS...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND INTO FAR W TX.

..PARTS NERN CO/NWRN KS/SRN NEB...
THUNDERSTORMS -- DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION/WEAKENING NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET -- SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
ERN KS AND INTO THE MID MO VALLEY...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY.

MEANWHILE...THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD SHIFT WWD
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN LEE
OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

DESPITE THE DEVELOPING LOW AND ASSOCIATED SLY FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST TO BE MODEST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD YIELD A PERSISTENT CAP...AND THUS ATTM IT APPEARS THAT WARM
SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN SUPPRESSED. WILL MAINTAIN
5%/CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONVECTION INITIATE.

MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN KS AND INTO NEB
OVERNIGHT...AS 60 KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
HAIL WITH STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.GOSS.. 10/12/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120512
SWODY1
SPC AC 120509

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE WEST COAST TODAY
AND CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE CNTRL STATES WILL
PERSIST GIVEN SLOW DEAMPLIFICATION/EWD TRANSLATION OF COMPLEX
DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE AFFECTING ERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. CLOSER
TO THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL EXTEND FROM THE MS VALLEY
TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOIST AXIS ON THE WRN/SWRN FLANK OF THIS HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EXPAND NWD FROM TX TO THE CNTRL PLAINS ON
PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL JET. LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND WARM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER CO/KS FROM LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACH OF WRN TROUGH MOVES OVER THESE AREAS.

..KS/MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...
A FEW STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TODAY OVER KS AIDED BY FOCUSED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. A FEW CLUSTERS
OF ELEVATED STORMS MAY PERSIST IN THIS ZONE...OR NEW DEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR...AS WARM FRONT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TODAY. INFLUX OF INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE WARM FRONT MAY
ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EVENING
WITH A COUPLE OF SEVERE HAIL EVENTS POSSIBLE. WITH GENERALLY WEAK
LARGE SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION APPEARS LOW.

STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE CNTRL PLAINS AS INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET MAINTAINS MOISTURE
FLUX AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT STRENGTHENS. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40KT SUGGEST HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY A
FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

..SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER
INDICATIONS THAT ONLY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR WITH DIURNAL
HEATING. THIS APPEARS LIKE A REASONABLE SCENARIO GIVEN LACK OF
GREATER SYNOPTIC FORCING AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LOW
PROBABILITY HAIL FORECAST APPEARS ADEQUATE WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL EXPECTED.

.CARBIN/GRAMS.. 10/12/2007

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