MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2066

ACUS11 KWNS 121009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121009
KSZ000-NEZ000-121245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2066
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SWRN NEB...NWRN/W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL KS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121009Z - 121245Z

THROUGH 12Z...ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE IN BELT FROM NEAR MCK SEWD TO BETWEEN RSL-CNK...WITH MORE
DISCRETE/ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE SWD TOWARD GBD-DDC AREAS.
MAIN CONCERN IS HAIL...SOME OF WHICH MAY REACH SVR LEVELS FOR SHORT
PERIODS IN MOST INTENSE CELLS.

VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOWS 30-40 KT LLJ FROM TX PANHANDLE NNEWD ACROSS
SWRN KS...BECOMING DIFLUENT FARTHER N INTO SRN NEB AND NE INTO
N-CENTRAL KS. KS PORTION LLJ IS 10-15 KT STRONGER THAN FCST BY
PRIOR RUC RUNS FOR SAME REGION...AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN NAM ON N
END...WITH DIFLUENT AREA FARTHER NE. THIS INDICATES STRONGER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PERHAPS LARGER VALUES OF ELEVATED MIXING
RATIO THAN INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE. TIME SERIES OF MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION ABOVE SFC WILL CONTINUE IN
DISCUSSION AREA...INCREASING LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BUOYANCY.
PARCELS ISENTROPICALLY RAISED TO LFC MAY ACCESS ELEVATED MUCAPES
500-1000 J/KG...AMIDST 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES -- MAINLY
BETWEEN MCK-CNK. LACK OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE AND SHEAR WILL LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SVR...THOUGH MRGL HAILSTONES ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

FURTHER EWD EXPANSION OF CONVECTIVE PLUME TOWARD MHK-TOP VICINITY IS
POSSIBLE ALSO AS NEWD EXTENSION OF LLJ VEERS AROUND 12Z.
HOWEVER...WEAKER MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY...AS WELL AS SHORTER DURATION
OF LLJ MAX AND ACCOMPANYING DESTABILIZATION...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
LOWER HAIL POTENTIAL THERE.

.EDWARDS.. 10/12/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

40320095 40079937 39679769 38979693 38419880 37829992
38800028

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.