KFWD [110250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 110250
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
850 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0849 PM FLASH FLOOD FORT WORTH 32.75N 97.34W
11/10/2008 TARRANT TX NWS EMPLOYEE

WATER 1 FOOT DEEP ON I-30 NEAR RIDGEMAR MALL

$$

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KLBF [110245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 110245
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
844 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0844 PM HEAVY SNOW IMPERIAL 40.52N 101.64W
11/10/2008 M7.0 INCH CHASE NE CO-OP OBSERVER

AS OF 840 PM CST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 7 INCHES.

&&

$$

SJACOBS

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KFWD [110240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 110240
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
840 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0836 PM FLOOD 6 N STEPHENVILLE 32.31N 98.22W
11/10/2008 ERATH TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLOODING ON LOW SPOTS OF COUNTY ROADS NORTH PART OF
COUNTY

$$

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KLBF [110204]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 110204
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
804 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0804 PM HEAVY SNOW IMPERIAL 40.52N 101.64W
11/10/2008 M6.0 INCH CHASE NE CO-OP OBSERVER

AS OF 800 PM CST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 6 INCHES.

&&

$$

SJACOBS

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KFWD [110141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 110141
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
741 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0739 PM FLASH FLOOD FORT WORTH 32.75N 97.34W
11/10/2008 TARRANT TX NWS EMPLOYEE

REPORTS OF CARS STRANDED ON BRYANT IRVIN ROAD SOUTH OF
I-20.

$$

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KDDC [110123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDDC 110123
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
722 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0314 PM HAIL JOHNSON CITY 37.57N 101.75W
11/10/2008 E1.00 INCH STANTON KS EMERGENCY MNGR

THEY ARE RECEIVING PEA TO NICKLE TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

0325 PM HAIL 2 NNW JOHNSON CITY 37.60N 101.77W
11/10/2008 E1.00 INCH STANTON KS PUBLIC

0327 PM TORNADO 4 NW JOHNSON CITY 37.61N 101.80W
11/10/2008 STANTON KS NWS EMPLOYEE

REPORT STATED THERE WAS A LARGE TORNADO ON THE GROUND 4
TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF JOHNSON.

0333 PM TORNADO 3 NW JOHNSON CITY 37.60N 101.79W
11/10/2008 STANTON KS EMERGENCY MNGR

THIS REPORT STATED A LARGE TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND 3 TO
3.5 MILES NORTHWEST OF JOHNSON.

0425 PM HAIL 15 SW LAKIN 37.79N 101.45W
11/10/2008 E0.88 INCH KEARNY KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

06

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KDDC [110121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 110121
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
721 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM HAIL 2 NNW JOHNSON CITY 37.60N 101.77W
11/10/2008 E1.00 INCH STANTON KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

06

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2365

ACUS11 KWNS 110119
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110119
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-110515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2365
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA...FAR SWRN MN

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 110119Z - 110515Z

FREEZING RAIN /OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH SLEET/ WILL LIKELY EXPAND NWD
FROM ERN NEB/W-CNTRL IA. ICE ACCRETION RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.15 IN A
3-HR PERIOD APPEAR PROBABLE.

FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER WRN
KS AND DOWNSTREAM LOWER-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF CNTRL/SRN NEB SINCE
LATE AFTERNOON. A GREATER THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SURFACE ICE
ACCRETION APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE FARTHER NE WHERE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION BAND /FROM AROUND 30 NW LBF TO 20 S SLB AT 0110Z/
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NWD...WITH ADDITIONAL PLUMES OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY FOLLOWING LATER THIS EVENING. 18Z NAM/15Z
NAMKF GUIDANCE WERE BOTH AROUND 5 DEG F TOO WARM/MOIST COMPARED TO
REGIONAL 00Z SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS AND OAX RAOB.
CONSEQUENTLY THE DEPTH AND MAGNITUDE OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BENEATH ELEVATED WARM NOSE APPEARS TO BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL THAN
FORECAST. AS SUCH...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SLEET APPEAR TO BE
THE LIKELY PTYPE INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.

..GRAMS.. 11/11/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...

LAT...LON 43579536 43079485 42569492 42219578 42239683 42269760
42639825 43049841 43709794 43799754 43759606 43579536

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110102
SWODY1
SPC AC 110100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS TX AND SOUTHERN OK...

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FEATURES CLOSED LOW ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD
EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH ASSOCIATED
STRONG UPPER JET CROSSING PORTIONS OF WESTERN/NORTHERN TX AND OK
WITH 60-70 KT AT 500 MB/110+ KT AT 250 MB PER 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS AND
REGIONAL PROFILER NETWORK. WITH A DOUBLE NW-SE WARM FRONTAL
STRUCTURE ACROSS TX...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /60S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX.

WITHIN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS...SURFACE/NEAR-SURFACE BASED
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
TX/HILL COUNTRY VICINITY...WITH A SEVERE THREAT POTENTIALLY
INCREASING OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX. STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR/LOW LEVEL SRH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWS THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH RISKS FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO. REFERENCE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
2364 AND TORNADO WATCH 930 FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM DETAILS.

FROM FAR NORTH TX AND SOUTHERN OK NORTH/EASTWARD...OCCASIONAL SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION REGIME TONIGHT.

..GUYER.. 11/11/2008

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch - Number 929

WWUS20 KWNS 110103
SEL9
SPC WW 110103
OKZ000-TXZ000-110100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH - NUMBER 929
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
703 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 929 ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST FOR PORTIONS OF

OKLAHOMA
TEXAS

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KFWD [110043]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 110043
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
643 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SSE LIPAN 32.49N 98.03W
11/10/2008 HOOD TX TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN

$$

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 930

WWUS20 KWNS 110037
SEL0
SPC WW 110037
TXZ000-110800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 930
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 640 PM UNTIL
200 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
DALLAS TEXAS TO 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BROWNWOOD TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 929...

DISCUSSION...LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM EAST OF SJT
TO WEST OF DFW. THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE EVENING
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SLOWLY INCREASE OVER WATCH
AREA. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.

...HART

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KLBF [110023]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 110023
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
622 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM SNOW 4 W BIG SPRINGS 41.06N 102.15W
11/10/2008 M1.0 INCH DEUEL NE CO-OP OBSERVER

VISIBILITY REDUCED TO 1/4 MILE IN MODERATE SNOW.

&&

$$

MBYRD

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2364

ACUS11 KWNS 110019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110019 COR
TXZ000-110145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2364
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN TX...SWRN OK.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 929...

VALID 110019Z - 110145Z

CORRECTED FOR TYPO

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 929 CONTINUES.

REMAINDER WW SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WILL PERSIST OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN TX THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING.
THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT WW IS LIKELY WHICH SHOULD COVER
SRN/ERN PORTIONS EXISTING WW ALONG WITH SOME AREAS FARTHER W.

23Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED CYCLONE OVER SWRN KS..WITH OCCLUDED
FRONT SEWD ACROSS EXTREME NERN TX PANHANDLE. DIFFUSE/POST-DRYLINE
COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM EXTREME E-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE SSWWD
TOWARD MAF AREA. BLENDED WARM FRONT/DRYLINE EXTENDED SE FROM ERN
PANHANDLE TO INTERSECTION POINT BETWEEN RPH-DYS...WITH DRYLINE SWWD
ACROSS COLEMAN AND VAL VERDE COUNTIES TX. WARM FRONT BECAME
QUASISTATIONARY SEWD FROM DRYLINE INTERSECTION AND ASSUMED
WELL-DEFINED DOUBLE STRUCTURE. NRN STATIONARY FRONTAL BRANCH WAS
ANALYZED FROM STEPHENS COUNTY SEWD ACROSS SEP AREA...MCLENNAN
COUNTY...TO NEAR BPT. SRN BRANCH OF STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR SEP SSEWD BETWEEN AUS-SAT...THEN SEWD ACROSS VCT AREA. PRIND
EACH BRANCH OF LATTER FRONT WILL AT MOST DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NEWD.
MEANWHILE COLD FRONT SHOULD CATCH UP TO DRYLINE/WARM FRONT FROM N-S.
THIS PROCESS EFFECTIVELY WILL SHUNT FAVORABLE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
SEWD WITH TIME...WHILE BEGINNING TO FORCE LINEAR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS BLENDED BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THAT PORTION OF SFC
MOIST SECTOR S OF SRN STATIONARY FRONTAL BRANCH.

MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF BACKED WINDS...ENLARGED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND NEARLY SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN ALONG SRN BRANCH
STATIONARY FRONT...WITH PARCELS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE ELEVATED
NEWD TO NRN BRANCH. 0-1 KM SRH WILL REMAIN IN 200-400 J/KG RANGE
ALONG AND E OF SRN BRANCH. ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE CONVECTION
INTERACTING WITH SRN BRANCH FRONT WILL POSE LARGEST TORNADO
PROBABILITIES...BUT THREAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL ON CONVECTIVE MODE.
ACTIVITY N OF NRN BRANCH STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE ELEVATED WITH MAIN
THREAT BEING HAIL...AMIDST STRENGTHENING 45-55 KT LLJ. PUREST WARM
SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG...ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THETAE ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OFFSETS STABILIZING EFFECTS OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING.

..EDWARDS.. 11/11/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30330009 31909925 32969732 32499675 31089606 29849726
30079979 30330009

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2364

ACUS11 KWNS 110016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110015
TXZ000-110145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2364
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN TX...SWRN OK.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 929...

VALID 110015Z - 110145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 929 CONTINUES.

REMAINDER WW SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WILL PERSIST OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN TX THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING.
THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT WW IS LIKELY WHICH SHOULD COVER
SRN/ERN PORTIONS EXISTING WW ALONG WITH SOME AREAS FARTHER W.

23Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED CYCLONE OVER SERN KS..WITH OCCLUDED
FRONT SEWD ACROSS EXTREME NERN TX PANHANDLE. DIFFUSE/POST-DRYLINE
COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM EXTREME E-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE SSWWD
TOWARD MAF AREA. BLENDED WARM FRONT/DRYLINE EXTENDED SE FROM ERN
PANHANDLE TO INTERSECTION POINT BETWEEN RPH-DYS...WITH DRYLINE SWWD
ACROSS COLEMAN AND VAL VERDE COUNTIES TX. WARM FRONT BECAME
QUASISTATIONARY SEWD FROM DRYLINE INTERSECTION AND ASSUMED
WELL-DEFINED DOUBLE STRUCTURE. NRN STATIONARY FRONTAL BRANCH WAS
ANALYZED FROM STEPHENS COUNTY SEWD ACROSS SEP AREA...MCLENNAN
COUNTY...TO NEAR BPT. SRN BRANCH OF STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR SEP SSEWD BETWEEN AUS-SAT...THEN SEWD ACROSS VCT AREA. PRIND
EACH BRANCH OF LATTER FRONT WILL AT MOST DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NEWD.
MEANWHILE COLD FRONT SHOULD CATCH UP TO DRYLINE/WARM FRONT FROM N-S.
THIS PROCESS EFFECTIVELY WILL SHUNT FAVORABLE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
SEWD WITH TIME...WHILE BEGINNING TO FORCE LINEAR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS BLENDED BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THAT PORTION OF SFC
MOIST SECTOR S OF SRN STATIONARY FRONTAL BRANCH.

MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF BACKED WINDS...ENLARGED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND NEARLY SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN ALONG SRN BRANCH
STATIONARY FRONT...WITH PARCELS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE ELEVATED
NEWD TO NRN BRANCH. 0-1 KM SRH WILL REMAIN IN 200-400 J/KG RANGE
ALONG AND E OF SRN BRANCH. ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE CONVECTION
INTERACTING WITH SRN BRANCH FRONT WILL POSE LARGEST TORNADO
PROBABILITIES...BUT THREAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL ON CONVECTIVE MODE.
ACTIVITY N OF NRN BRANCH STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE ELEVATED WITH MAIN
THREAT BEING HAIL...AMIDST STRENGTHENING 45-55 KT LLJ. PUREST WARM
SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG...ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THETAE ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OFFSETS STABILIZING EFFECTS OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING.

..EDWARDS.. 11/11/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30330009 31909925 32969732 32499675 31089606 29849726
30079979 30330009

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KLBF [110002]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 110002
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
602 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM HEAVY SNOW IMPERIAL 40.52N 101.64W
11/10/2008 M4.0 INCH CHASE NE CO-OP OBSERVER

SNOWFALL HAS ACCUMULATED TO 4 INCHES SINCE STORM BEGAN.

&&

$$

MBYRD

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KFWD [110000]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 110000
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
559 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0554 PM FLASH FLOOD 12 S MINERAL WELLS 32.65N 98.08W
11/10/2008 PALO PINTO TX AMATEUR RADIO

LOW WATER CROSSINGS FLOODED NEAR INTERSECTION OF I-20
AND HWY 281

$$

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KLBF [102351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLBF 102351
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
551 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HEAVY SNOW IMPERIAL 40.52N 101.64W
11/10/2008 M2.0 INCH CHASE NE CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

MPOWER

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KGRR [102319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 102319
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
619 PM EST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0618 PM SNOW LANSING 42.71N 84.55W
11/10/2008 M0.7 INCH INGHAM MI TRAINED SPOTTER

THE LIQUID EQUIVALENT WAS 0.06 INCHES.

&&

$$

OSTUNO

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KGID [102312]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGID 102312
LSRGID

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
512 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM SLEET 2 S COZAD 40.83N 99.99W
11/10/2008 E1.00 INCH DAWSON NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW ABOUT 1 INCH DEEP RESULTING IN
SLICK CONDITIONS ON HIGHWAY 21 SOUTH OF COZAD. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN DAWSON COUNTY RESULTING
IN A FEW VEHICLE ACCIDENTS.

&&

$$

PFANNKUCH

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KLBF [102300]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 102300
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
500 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HEAVY SNOW IMPERIAL 40.52N 101.64W
11/10/2008 M0.0 INCH CHASE NE CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

MPOWER

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KFWD [102256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 102256
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
456 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0354 PM HAIL LIPAN 32.52N 98.05W
11/10/2008 E1.00 INCH HOOD TX AMATEUR RADIO

LASTED APPROXIMATELY 5 MINUTES.

$$

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KDDC [102230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 102230
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
430 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0425 PM HAIL 15 SW LAKIN 37.79N 101.45W
11/10/2008 E0.88 INCH KEARNY KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

26

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2363

ACUS11 KWNS 102147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102147
TXZ000-OKZ000-102245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2363
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/NW TX AND SW OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 929...

VALID 102147Z - 102245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 929 CONTINUES.

ENVIRONMENT AND SEVERE PARAMETERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT ACROSS WW 929.

MID-AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS MAINTAINED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING
FROM SWRN LA NWWD TO S OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX AND THEN
THROUGH NW TX TO ERN TX PANHANDLE. A DRY LINE HAD MADE THE GREATEST
EWD PROGRESS INTO NW TX WHERE IT MERGED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM
FRONT...AND THEN TRAILED SSWWD THROUGH THE WRN EXTENT OF WW 929 TO
VAL VERDE COUNTY. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED ROTATING STORMS OVER
EAST CENTRAL PART OF TORNADO WATCH AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVED NEWD IN
VICINITY OF WARM FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS THE
GREATEST. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN HALF OF THE
WATCH ALONG AND AHEAD OF ADVANCING DRY LINE AND WITHIN LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT EXTENDED NNWWD INTO SERN PART OF THE WATCH.
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION LOCATED E/NE OF WARM FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A MORE
STABLE AIR MASS AND SHOULD INHIBIT SEVERE THREAT SPREADING E OF WW
929.

POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS ACROSS NRN MOST PART OF
WW...GENERALLY N OF A LINE FROM JONES TO JACK COUNTIES...WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS DRY LINE MOVES EWD AND EFFECTIVELY REDUCES
SIZE OF NRN EXTENT OF WARM SECTOR.

..PETERS.. 11/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30290017 31310007 32509924 33739916 34599915 34549811
33709734 32739696 31709725 29959838 30199935 30290017

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KDDC [102137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 102137
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0333 PM TORNADO 3 NW JOHNSON CITY 37.60N 101.79W
11/10/2008 STANTON KS EMERGENCY MNGR

THIS REPORT STATED A LARGE TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND 3 TO
3.5 MILES NORTHWEST OF JOHNSON.

&&

$$

MB

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KDDC [102131]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 102131
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
331 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0327 PM TORNADO 4 NW JOHNSON CITY 37.61N 101.80W
11/10/2008 STANTON KS NWS EMPLOYEE

REPORT STATED THERE WAS A LARGE TORNADO ON THE GROUND 4
TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF JOHNSON.

&&

$$

MB

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KDDC [102119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 102119
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
319 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0314 PM HAIL JOHNSON CITY 37.57N 101.75W
11/10/2008 E1.00 INCH STANTON KS EMERGENCY MNGR

THEY ARE RECEIVING PEA TO NICKLE TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

&&

$$

MB

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KPUB [102020]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 102020
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
120 PM MST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 PM SNOW 2 WSW ROSITA 38.09N 105.36W
11/10/2008 M2.0 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101955
SWODY1
SPC AC 101953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN TX INTO PARTS OF THE S CNTRL HIGH PLAINS....

...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...
IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A LARGE COLD SURFACE RIDGE IS
CONFINING SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION
MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THUS...AS THE INITIAL
STRONGER FORCING LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE
EXIT REGION OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET STREAK NOSING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED TO A
RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG A DRY LINE FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO THE VICINITY OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INTO THE EVENING HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH...MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET AXES ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF A MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH
LITTLE...IF ANY...MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY OCCUR...AS SURFACE DEW
POINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE MID/UPPER 60S...BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CAPE
MAY EXCEED 1000 J/KG...SUPPORTING STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THE CORE OF THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE HILL COUNTRY ARE SILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIZABLE...ENHANCING THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THEREAFTER...UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR MORE CONGEALING STORM
CLUSTERS COULD MAINTAIN A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY
...WHILE NEW STORMS CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
...TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY.

..KERR/KIS.. 11/10/2008

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KOUN [101955]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 101955
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
155 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0148 PM HAIL 6 SW GRANDFIELD 34.17N 98.76W
11/10/2008 E1.00 INCH TILLMAN OK PUBLIC

&&

$$

TY

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2362

ACUS11 KWNS 101859
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101859
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-102030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2362
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101859Z - 102030Z

A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR ISOLATED
HAIL/BRIEF TORNADO THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED AREAL EXTENT WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE.

18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED SYNOPTIC LOW OVER THE RATON
MESA WITH AN E/W-ORIENTED WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN KS AND A DRYLINE
ARCING SEWD ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS
RECENTLY COMMENCED INVOF THE SYNOPTIC CYCLONE AND EJECTING MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE ROTATING NEWD /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/. FARTHER EAST...A
VERY NARROW SLOT OF HEATING BETWEEN DRYLINE AND STRATUS DECK SHOULD
RESULT IN MLCAPES REACHING 500 J/KG BY 21Z. ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRY LINE OR ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD FROM THE RATON
MESA MAY INTERACT WITH THIS INSTABILITY AXIS AND LEND TO A MORE
ROBUST CONVECTIVE THREAT. ALTHOUGH GRENADA CO PROFILER STILL
INDICATES SOME BACKING OF FLOW WITHIN THE 2-4 KM LAYER...HODOGRAPHS
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS FARTHER SE. HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT IN THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...AMBIENT SURFACE VORTICITY
AND 0-3 KM CAPE INCREASING TO AOA 100 J/KG WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO.

..GRAMS.. 11/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36990273 36990301 37250291 37730240 37840171 37910064
37660000 36950005 36590027 36430071 36670134 36940211
36980254 36990273

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 929

WWUS20 KWNS 101828
SEL9
SPC WW 101828
OKZ000-TXZ000-110100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 929
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1225 PM UNTIL
700 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF WICHITA
FALLS TEXAS TO 40 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF JUNCTION TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
TX WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND SURFACE HEATING HAVE ERODED
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND DRYLINE
NEAR THE RED RIVER IN NW TX. THOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY STEEP AND CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED SURFACE HEATING THUS
FAR...GRADUAL MOISTENING AND CLOUD BREAKS W OF I-35 SHOULD ALLOW
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IN THE WARM SECTOR TO SUPPORT A SEVERE
STORM THREAT. MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500 J/KG AND STRONG
LOW-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES...ALONG WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.

...THOMPSON

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2361

ACUS11 KWNS 101733
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101733
TXZ000-101830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2361
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CST MON NOV 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101733Z - 101830Z

WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 18-19Z ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TX.

LATEST TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED GREATER CLEARING
OF THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM KINNEY
COUNTY TO SHACKELFORD COUNTY...WHICH ALSO IS THE WRN EXTENT OF
STRONGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. ALTHOUGH CURRENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST AT BEST /6 C/KM/...ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION AS HAS BEEN INDICATED ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF
DISSIPATING CLOUDS /MLCAPE 500-750 J/KG/. REGIONAL RADARS/
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS/CONVECTION WITHIN THIS
SAME ZONE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IS LIKELY INDICATING LARGE
SCALE ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SRN ROCKIES TROUGH. KINEMATICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...ONCE
STORMS DEVELOP...AS 70 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON ATOP SLY LLJ. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE WILL SUPPORT TORNADOES WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT
SUPERCELLS.

..PETERS.. 11/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 31049979 32059955 33399922 33479824 33039740 31699733
30589763 29739839 29800020 30270003 31049979

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 101729
SWODY2
SPC AC 101726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST MON NOV 10 2008

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE/TUE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
TX/WRN GULF COASTAL AREAS....

...SYNOPSIS...
AS A STRONG ZONAL PACIFIC JET NOSES INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
ROCKIES LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT A
MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
DOWNSTREAM SPLIT POLAR WESTERLIES...WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME...A MUCH LARGER MID/UPPER CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH...WITHIN THE NORTHERN BRANCH...IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE
GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT OF QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LATTER FEATURE...A LARGE COLD/STABLE SURFACE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE SLOW TO RETREAT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AND...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT MAY BEGIN TO SURGE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST AND
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. BUT...IT APPEARS THAT SOUTHERLY PRE-FRONTAL
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST INFLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/OZARK PLATEAU REGION.

...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...
A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY 65F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS
IS ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST. BUT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED
TO PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD... DUE TO THE
CONTINUING STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN STATES RIDGE. ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER...SUBSTANTIVE MOISTENING IS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH
AS THE WARM SECTOR OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW MIGRATING FROM THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. AND...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ZONES OF STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME SMALL
HAIL. HOWEVER...ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST...WHERE MIXED LAYER CAPE
MAY REACH 1000-2000 J/KG.

VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...SUPPORTED BY FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
CLOSED LOW. THIS FORCING IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO/THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MIDDAY...AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE TRENDS THEREAFTER ARE UNCLEAR. IF MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE/WARMING IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT
...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE CONVECTION AND SUPERCELLS IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...VARIABILITY INCREASES AMONG MODEL DATA
CONCERNING THE NEXT IMPULSE DIGGING INTO AND PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH. BUT...IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT
ASSOCIATED FORCING COULD SUPPORT A RENEWED INCREASE IN STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER
TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN.

..KERR.. 11/10/2008

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KMQT [101723]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 101723
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1223 PM EST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1222 PM SNOW MARENISCO 46.38N 89.70W
11/10/2008 M8.6 INCH GOGEBIC MI CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL.

&&

$$

AJK

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KMQT [101711]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMQT 101711
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1210 PM EST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM SNOW 1 NW MUNISING 46.42N 86.67W
11/10/2008 M6.0 INCH ALGER MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN LAST 24 HOURS. SNOW DEPTH 5 INCHES.

0707 AM SNOW 2 NNW SNYDER LAKE 46.51N 85.96W
11/10/2008 M7.0 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL. 6 INCHES LAST 24 HOURS. 6 INCH SNOW DEPTH.

0707 AM SNOW 3 S MCMILLAN 46.30N 85.69W
11/10/2008 M9.1 INCH LUCE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL. 8.1 IN LAST 24 HOURS. STILL SNOWING AT TIME
OF OBSERVATION.

0722 AM SNOW WNW NEWBERRY 46.36N 85.52W
11/10/2008 M8.5 INCH LUCE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL. 7.5 INCHES IN LAST 24 HOURS. 5 INCHES IN
LAST 12 HOURS. SNOW DEPTH 7 INCHES.

0724 AM SNOW 1 S DIORITE 46.50N 87.83W
11/10/2008 M2.2 INCH MARQUETTE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN LAST 24 HOURS

0735 AM SNOW 3 WSW WATTON 46.52N 88.66W
11/10/2008 M10.7 INCH BARAGA MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

STORM TOTAL. 6 INCHES IN LAST 24 HOURS. 6 INCH SNOW
DEPTH.

0747 AM SNOW 2 WSW BARAGA 46.77N 88.53W
11/10/2008 M2.2 INCH BARAGA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN LAST 24 HOURS.

0758 AM SNOW 1 WNW IRONWOOD 46.46N 90.17W
11/10/2008 M7.0 INCH GOGEBIC MI CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL. 4 INCHES LAST 24 HOURS.

0818 AM SNOW MUNISING 46.41N 86.65W
11/10/2008 M6.0 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL

0818 AM SNOW MOHAWK 47.30N 88.36W
11/10/2008 M4.0 INCH KEWEENAW MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL

0838 AM SNOW 1 ESE BERGLAND 46.59N 89.55W
11/10/2008 M7.1 INCH ONTONAGON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL. 4.8 INCHES IN LAST 24 HOURS.

0851 AM SNOW 2 SSE IRON RIVER 46.06N 88.63W
11/10/2008 M3.0 INCH IRON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN LAST 24 HOURS

0920 AM SNOW 1 NE WATERSMEET 46.28N 89.17W
11/10/2008 M4.7 INCH GOGEBIC MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN LAST 24 HOURS

0930 AM SNOW 3 NE PIKE LAKE 46.68N 85.37W
11/10/2008 E4.0 INCH LUCE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL. 2 IN LAST 12 HOURS.

0931 AM SNOW WNW AMASA 46.23N 88.45W
11/10/2008 E4.0 INCH IRON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL.

1006 AM SNOW 2 SE THREE LAKES 46.53N 88.17W
11/10/2008 M2.0 INCH BARAGA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

LAST 12 HOURS. 5 INCH SNOW DEPTH.

1130 AM SNOW 2 SW TWIN LAKES 46.88N 88.86W
11/10/2008 M3.5 INCH HOUGHTON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN LAST 24 HOURS. 6 INCH SNOW DEPTH.

1130 AM SNOW 1 N NEWBERRY 46.37N 85.51W
11/10/2008 M5.7 INCH LUCE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL. 5.3 INCHES LAST 24 HOURS. 5 INCH SNOW DEPTH

1131 AM SNOW 2 E REDRIDGE 47.15N 88.72W
11/10/2008 M2.0 INCH HOUGHTON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN LAST 24 HOURS. 3 INCH SNOW DEPTH.

&&

$$

AJK

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KAPX [101710]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 101710
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1210 PM EST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM HEAVY SNOW 6 S GAYLORD 44.95N 84.67W
11/10/2008 M10.0 INCH OTSEGO MI NWS EMPLOYEE

24 HR TOTAL THROUGH 12 NOON.

&&

$$

ADAM

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KBRO [101651]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KBRO 101651
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1051 AM CST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 PM WATER SPOUT LAGUNA HEIGHTS 26.08N 97.26W
11/07/2008 CAMERON TX PUBLIC

THE PUBLIC REPORTED A LANDFALLING WATER SPOUT MOVING
ASHORE NEAR LAGUNA HEIGHTS. THE SAME PUBLIC REPORTED
DEBRIS BEING PULLED INTO THE LANDFALLING SPOUT IN A FIELD
JUST WEST OF LAGUNA HEIGHTS ALONG HWY 100. ANOTHER REPORT
WAS RECEIVED BY A SECOND INDIVIDUAL WHO REPORTED POWER
LINES DOWNED BY A LANDFALLING WATER SPOUT IN FRONT OF
BAYSIDE MANOR AT HWY 100 AND ROY STREET IN LAGUNA
HEIGHTS.

&&

$$

BMILLER

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KPSR [101637]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 101637
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
937 AM MST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM TSTM WND DMG ARIZONA CITY 32.75N 111.67W
11/09/2008 PINAL AZ CO-OP OBSERVER

SEVERAL LARGE CACTUS PLANTS, 20-30FT TALL PRICKLY PEAR,
BLOWN DOWN.

0500 PM HAIL ARIZONA CITY 32.75N 111.67W
11/09/2008 E0.75 INCH PINAL AZ CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

AJ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101636
SWODY1
SPC AC 101633

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1033 AM CST MON NOV 10 2008

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR
PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS...

...CENTRAL TX AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
A BROAD AREA OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES IN A ZONE OF WAA
OVER CENTRAL OK/KS AS OF MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM IN THIS ZONE AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF AN MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EJECTING NEWD
OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK. FARTHER S...A RELATIVELY
WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS SPREADING NWD FROM S INTO CENTRAL
TX...W OF A RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM ROUGHLY CLL TO PSX.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL TEND TO SLOW SURFACE HEATING...THOUGH CLOUD
BREAKS AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID-UPPER
60S WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 750-1500 J/KG BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON FROM S INTO CENTRAL TX.

SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TX...AND CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST AND MOVE
EWD INTO TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A SECOND MID-UPPER SPEED MAX THAT
WILL ROTATE EWD TO CENTRAL TX FROM NRN MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND RELATIVELY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
AND A FEW TORNADOES WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...
A LEE CYCLONE WILL PERSIST INVOF NE NM THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH A
DEVELOPING DRYLINE ARCING SEWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 48-50 F E OF THE DRYLINE AND WARMING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW-LEVELS WARM AND THE PRIMARY MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES ENEWD FROM
CENTRAL NM. INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 11/10/2008

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KABQ [101635]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KABQ 101635
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
934 AM MST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 AM SNOW GALLUP 35.52N 108.74W
11/10/2008 E1.0 INCH MCKINLEY NM LAW ENFORCEMENT

0650 AM SNOW TIERRA AMARILLA 36.70N 106.55W
11/10/2008 E2.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM PUBLIC

0700 AM SNOW 2 N CHAMA 36.92N 106.58W
11/10/2008 M2.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW RED RIVER 36.71N 105.42W
11/10/2008 M2.0 INCH TAOS NM PUBLIC

RED RIVER SKI AREA.

0800 AM SNOW 8 SSW RED RIVER 36.59N 105.45W
11/10/2008 M3.0 INCH TAOS NM PUBLIC

TAOS SKI AREA.

0830 AM SNOW 11 NE SANTA FE 35.79N 105.82W
11/10/2008 M1.6 INCH SANTA FE NM OTHER FEDERAL

SANTA FE SNOTEL AT 11445 FEET.

0850 AM SNOW EL MORRO 35.04N 108.32W
11/10/2008 M4.5 INCH CIBOLA NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0915 AM SNOW FENCE LAKE 34.65N 108.68W
11/10/2008 M1.0 INCH CIBOLA NM PUBLIC

&&

$$

GUYER

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KMQT [101633]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 101633
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1133 AM EST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 AM SNOW 1 N NEWBERRY 46.37N 85.51W
11/10/2008 M5.3 INCH LUCE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN LAST 24 HOURS. 5 INCH SNOW DEPTH

1130 AM SNOW 2 SW TWIN LAKES 46.88N 88.86W
11/10/2008 M3.5 INCH HOUGHTON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN LAST 24 HOURS. 6 INCH SNOW DEPTH.

1131 AM SNOW 2 E REDRIDGE 47.15N 88.72W
11/10/2008 M2.0 INCH HOUGHTON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN LAST 24 HOURS. 3 INCH SNOW DEPTH.

&&

$$

AJK

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KPUB [101627]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 101627
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
927 AM MST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0925 AM SNOW ALAMOSA 37.47N 105.87W
11/10/2008 M2.8 INCH ALAMOSA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JCERU

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KMQT [101556]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KMQT 101556
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1056 AM EST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0758 AM SNOW 1 WNW IRONWOOD 46.46N 90.17W
11/10/2008 M4.0 INCH GOGEBIC MI CO-OP OBSERVER

LAST 24 HOURS. 7 INCHES STORM TOTAL

&&

$$

AJK

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KMQT [101510]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMQT 101510
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1009 AM EST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM SNOW 1 NW MUNISING 46.42N 86.67W
11/10/2008 M6.0 INCH ALGER MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN LAST 24 HOURS. SNOW DEPTH 5 INCHES.

0707 AM SNOW 2 NNW SNYDER LAKE 46.51N 85.96W
11/10/2008 M6.0 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER

IN LAST 24 HOURS. 7 INCHES TOTAL. 6 INCH SNOW DEPTH.

0707 AM SNOW 3 S MCMILLAN 46.30N 85.69W
11/10/2008 M8.1 INCH LUCE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN LAST 24 HOURS. STILL SNOWING AT TIME OF OBSERVATION.

0722 AM SNOW WNW NEWBERRY 46.36N 85.52W
11/10/2008 E7.5 INCH LUCE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN LAST 24 HOURS. 5 INCHES IN LAST 12 HOURS. SNOW DEPTH 7
INCHES.

0724 AM SNOW 1 S DIORITE 46.50N 87.83W
11/10/2008 M2.2 INCH MARQUETTE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN LAST 24 HOURS

0735 AM SNOW 2 ESE SIDNAW 46.50N 88.67W
11/10/2008 M6.0 INCH BARAGA MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

IN LAST 24 HOURS. 10.7 INCHES STORM TOTAL.

0747 AM SNOW 2 WSW BARAGA 46.77N 88.53W
11/10/2008 M2.2 INCH BARAGA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN LAST 24 HOURS.

0758 AM SNOW 2 WNW IRONWOOD 46.47N 90.18W
11/10/2008 M4.0 INCH IRON WI CO-OP OBSERVER

LAST 24 HOURS. 7 INCHES STORM TOTAL

0818 AM SNOW MOHAWK 47.30N 88.36W
11/10/2008 M4.0 INCH KEWEENAW MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL

0818 AM SNOW MUNISING 46.41N 86.65W
11/10/2008 M6.0 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL

0838 AM SNOW 1 ESE BERGLAND 46.59N 89.55W
11/10/2008 M4.8 INCH ONTONAGON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN LAST 24 HOURS. 7.1 INCHES STORM TOTAL.

0851 AM SNOW 2 SSE IRON RIVER 46.06N 88.63W
11/10/2008 M3.0 INCH IRON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN LAST 24 HOURS

0920 AM SNOW 1 NE WATERSMEET 46.28N 89.17W
11/10/2008 M4.7 INCH GOGEBIC MI CO-OP OBSERVER

0930 AM SNOW 3 NE PIKE LAKE 46.68N 85.37W
11/10/2008 M2.0 INCH LUCE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN LAST 12 HOURS. 4 INCHES ESTIMATED STORM TOTAL.

0931 AM SNOW WNW AMASA 46.23N 88.45W
11/10/2008 E4.0 INCH IRON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL.

1006 AM SNOW 2 SE THREE LAKES 46.53N 88.17W
11/10/2008 M2.0 INCH BARAGA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

LAST 12 HOURS. 5 INCH SNOW DEPTH.

&&

$$

AJK

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KCYS [101510]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 101510
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
810 AM MST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW BUFORD 41.11N 105.30W
11/10/2008 E1.0 INCH ALBANY WY TRAINED SPOTTER

TRACE TO AN INCH OF SNOW.

0800 AM SNOW 8 E LARAMIE 41.31N 105.43W
11/10/2008 E2.0 INCH ALBANY WY TRAINED SPOTTER

1-2 INCHES OF SNOW

0800 AM SNOW 16 SE SARATOGA 41.29N 106.59W
11/10/2008 M2.0 INCH CARBON WY CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW ENCAMPMENT 41.21N 106.79W
11/10/2008 M0.0 INCH CARBON WY CO-OP OBSERVER

DUSTING OF NEW SNOW

0800 AM SNOW CENTENNIAL 41.30N 106.11W
11/10/2008 M0.0 INCH ALBANY WY TRAINED SPOTTER

TRACE OF NEW SNOW

&&

$$

HUTCHEON

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KMQT [101507]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 101507
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1007 AM EST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1006 AM SNOW 2 SE THREE LAKES 46.53N 88.17W
11/10/2008 M2.0 INCH BARAGA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

LAST 12 HOURS. 5 INCH SNOW DEPTH.

&&

$$

AJK

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2360

ACUS11 KWNS 101504
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101503
TXZ000-101600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2360
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0903 AM CST MON NOV 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 101503Z - 101600Z

ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS AND/OR A BRIEF INLAND TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE MIDDLE TX COAST.

REGIONAL RADARS COMBINED WITH SURFACE/12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES
INDICATED TSTMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE WHICH EXTENDED SSEWD FROM JACKSON/CALHOUN COUNTIES TX AND
INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE IS
ANALYZED AS A WARM FRONT MOVING SLOWLY NEWD. STRONGEST STORMS...AT
MID MORNING...REMAINED OFFSHORE WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ROTATION
ATTENDANT TO THE STORM LOCATED 45 SSE PSX AND IN VICINITY OF THE
WARM FRONT. CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION ALONG AND E/NE OF THIS FRONT
WILL LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. GREATER DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR W
OF THE FRONT WHERE SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED. SSELY LOW LEVEL
WINDS AT 35-40 KT BENEATH WLY MID LEVEL WINDS AT 40 KT ARE
SUPPORTING A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...WHILE LOW
LEVEL CURVED HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WITH A
LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE FOR POTENTIAL INLAND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MAINTAIN A SURFACE BASED
POTENTIAL SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT.

..PETERS.. 11/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...

LAT...LON 28039648 28689677 28939649 29219568 28919496 28509500
28079617 28039648

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KAPX [101459]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 101459
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
959 AM EST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM HEAVY SNOW 5 N GRAYLING 44.73N 84.71W
11/10/2008 M8.0 INCH CRAWFORD MI DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

12 HR TOTAL THROUGH 8 AM.

&&

$$

ADAM

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KABQ [101454]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 101454
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
753 AM MST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 AM SNOW GALLUP 35.52N 108.74W
11/10/2008 E1.0 INCH MCKINLEY NM LAW ENFORCEMENT

0650 AM SNOW TIERRA AMARILLA 36.70N 106.55W
11/10/2008 E2.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM PUBLIC

0700 AM SNOW 2 N CHAMA 36.92N 106.58W
11/10/2008 M2.0 INCH RIO ARRIBA NM CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

KD

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 101330
SWODY1
SPC AC 101327

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 AM CST MON NOV 10 2008

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

CORRECTED GEN TSTM LINE

...SRN PLAINS...
LITTLE CHANGE ATTM WITH OVERALL SEVERE TSTM FORECAST AHEAD OF
INTENSE AUTUMN MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EWD AND THEN NEWD THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
ENHANCEMENT OF SSWLY LLJ IS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER MUCH OF TX INTO OK
AT DAYBREAK WITH 1KM WINDS AOA 50 KT AT JTN PROFILER AT 11Z. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS ALSO CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
RICH GULF MOISTURE /I.E. SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F/ ADVECTING OUT
OF SRN TX...SAMPLED BY BOTH BRO AND CRP SOUNDINGS AT 12Z. SURFACE
LOW SHOULD CONSOLIDATE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WITH
DRY LINE/SURFACE TROUGH ARCING SSEWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO CENTRAL TX
TO NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION. EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY
BECOME REINFORCED BY EARLY DAY MOIST CONVECTION FROM SERN INTO NWRN
TX.

/MUCH OF CENTRAL/EAST TX AND SOUTHERN OK/WESTERN LA/
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASE IN
MOIST CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN TX ACROSS OK
THROUGH THE MORNING. COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF HAIL...SOME SEVERE...WITH THIS ELEVATED
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING WEAKENS CAPPING ABOVE MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TX WHERE
COLLOCATION OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAKEST CAPPING WILL OCCUR.
ADDITIONAL RISK AREA MAY EVOLVE NEARER THE TX COAST INVOF COASTAL
FRONT WHERE EVEN MODEST HEATING WILL CREATE WEAK CAPPING FOR
SURFACE-BASED PARCELS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
EXTREME /EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 50-70 KT...SFC-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF
200 M2 S-2/ AND ENHANCE ANY SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT ALONG WITH
ATTENDANT THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.
CONDITIONAL RISK OF ONE OR TWO SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ALSO APPEARS
WARRANTED OVER THIS AREA. THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING OVER CENTRAL TX INVOF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND INTO
ERN TX/FAR WRN LA WITH LEADING ACTIVITY.

/TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS/
MOISTURE RETURN/SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL ESPECIALLY BE LIMITED
WITH NWWD EXTENT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE
LOW/TRIPLE POINT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK. ASIDE FROM
MORNING HAIL POTENTIAL...PROVIDED SUFFICIENT INSOLATION/MODEST
HEATING OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL/STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN VICINITY OF THE TRIPLE
POINT/SURFACE OCCLUSION ACROSS THE EASTERN/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN OK. HOWEVER...OVERALL SCENARIO DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE/BUOYANCY.

..EVANS.. 11/10/2008

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KMQT [101320]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 101320
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
819 AM EST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0818 AM SNOW MOHAWK 47.30N 88.36W
11/10/2008 M4.0 INCH KEWEENAW MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL

0818 AM SNOW MUNISING 46.41N 86.65W
11/10/2008 M6.0 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL

&&

$$

AJK

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KMQT [101259]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 101259
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
759 AM EST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0747 AM SNOW 2 WSW BARAGA 46.77N 88.53W
11/10/2008 M2.2 INCH BARAGA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN LAST 24 HOURS.

0758 AM SNOW 2 WNW IRONWOOD 46.47N 90.18W
11/10/2008 M4.0 INCH IRON WI CO-OP OBSERVER

LAST 24 HOURS. 7 INCHES STORM TOTAL

&&

$$

AJK

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KCRP [101251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 101251
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
650 AM CST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0632 AM HAIL PORT LAVACA 28.61N 96.62W
11/10/2008 E0.50 INCH CALHOUN TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

MARBLE-SIZED HAIL AND POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD ALONG HIGHWAY
316 SOUTH OF PORT LAVACA IN CALHOUN COUNTY

&&

$$

WCOLLINS

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101245
SWODY1
SPC AC 101242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 AM CST MON NOV 10 2008

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS...
LITTLE CHANGE ATTM WITH OVERALL SEVERE TSTM FORECAST AHEAD OF
INTENSE AUTUMN MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EWD AND THEN NEWD THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
ENHANCEMENT OF SSWLY LLJ IS ALREADY UNDERWAY OVER MUCH OF TX INTO OK
AT DAYBREAK WITH 1KM WINDS AOA 50 KT AT JTN PROFILER AT 11Z. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS ALSO CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
RICH GULF MOISTURE /I.E. SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F/ ADVECTING OUT
OF SRN TX...SAMPLED BY BOTH BRO AND CRP SOUNDINGS AT 12Z. SURFACE
LOW SHOULD CONSOLIDATE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WITH
DRY LINE/SURFACE TROUGH ARCING SSEWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO CENTRAL TX
TO NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION. EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY
BECOME REINFORCED BY EARLY DAY MOIST CONVECTION FROM SERN INTO NWRN
TX.

/MUCH OF CENTRAL/EAST TX AND SOUTHERN OK/WESTERN LA/
LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASE IN
MOIST CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN TX ACROSS OK
THROUGH THE MORNING. COMBINATION OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF HAIL...SOME SEVERE...WITH THIS ELEVATED
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING WEAKENS CAPPING ABOVE MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TX WHERE
COLLOCATION OF MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAKEST CAPPING WILL OCCUR.
ADDITIONAL RISK AREA MAY EVOLVE NEARER THE TX COAST INVOF COASTAL
FRONT WHERE EVEN MODEST HEATING WILL CREATE WEAK CAPPING FOR
SURFACE-BASED PARCELS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL REMAIN
EXTREME /EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 50-70 KT...SFC-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF
200 M2 S-2/ AND ENHANCE ANY SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT ALONG WITH
ATTENDANT THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.
CONDITIONAL RISK OF ONE OR TWO SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ALSO APPEARS
WARRANTED OVER THIS AREA. THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING OVER CENTRAL TX INVOF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND INTO
ERN TX/FAR WRN LA WITH LEADING ACTIVITY.

/TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS/
MOISTURE RETURN/SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL ESPECIALLY BE LIMITED
WITH NWWD EXTENT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE
LOW/TRIPLE POINT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK. ASIDE FROM
MORNING HAIL POTENTIAL...PROVIDED SUFFICIENT INSOLATION/MODEST
HEATING OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF
HAIL/STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN VICINITY OF THE TRIPLE
POINT/SURFACE OCCLUSION ACROSS THE EASTERN/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN OK. HOWEVER...OVERALL SCENARIO DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE/BUOYANCY.

..EVANS.. 11/10/2008

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KMQT [101245]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KMQT 101245
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
744 AM EST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM SNOW 1 NW MUNISING 46.42N 86.67W
11/10/2008 M6.0 INCH ALGER MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN LAST 24 HOURS. SNOW DEPTH 5 INCHES.

0707 AM SNOW 2 NNW SNYDER LAKE 46.51N 85.96W
11/10/2008 M6.0 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER

IN LAST 24 HOURS. 7 INCHES TOTAL. 6 INCH SNOW DEPTH.

0707 AM SNOW 3 S MCMILLAN 46.30N 85.69W
11/10/2008 M8.1 INCH LUCE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN LAST 24 HOURS. STILL SNOWING AT TIME OF OBSERVATION.

0722 AM SNOW WNW NEWBERRY 46.36N 85.52W
11/10/2008 E7.5 INCH LUCE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN LAST 24 HOURS. 5 INCHES IN LAST 12 HOURS. SNOW DEPTH 7
INCHES.

0724 AM SNOW 1 S DIORITE 46.50N 87.83W
11/10/2008 M2.2 INCH MARQUETTE MI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN LAST 24 HOURS

0735 AM SNOW 2 ESE SIDNAW 46.50N 88.67W
11/10/2008 M6.0 INCH BARAGA MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

IN LAST 24 HOURS. 10.7 INCHES STORM TOTAL.

&&

$$

AJK

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KMQT [101226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 101226
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
726 AM EST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM SNOW 1 NW MUNISING 46.42N 86.67W
11/10/2008 M6.0 INCH ALGER MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

IN LAST 24 HOURS. SNOW DEPTH 5 INCHES.

0707 AM SNOW 2 NNW SNYDER LAKE 46.51N 85.96W
11/10/2008 M6.0 INCH ALGER MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

IN LAST 24 HOURS. 7 INCHES TOTAL. 6 INCH SNOW DEPTH.

0707 AM SNOW 3 S MCMILLAN 46.30N 85.69W
11/10/2008 M8.1 INCH LUCE MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

IN LAST 24 HOURS. STILL SNOWING AT TIME OF OBSERVATION.

0722 AM SNOW WNW NEWBERRY 46.36N 85.52W
11/10/2008 E7.5 INCH LUCE MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

IN LAST 24 HOURS. 5 INCHES IN LAST 12 HOURS. SNOW DEPTH 7
INCHES.

0724 AM SNOW 1 S DIORITE 46.50N 87.83W
11/10/2008 M2.2 INCH MARQUETTE MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

IN LAST 24 HOURS

&&

$$

AJK

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KAPX [101056]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 101056
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
556 AM EST MON NOV 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 AM SNOW 5 SE MANCELONA 44.85N 84.99W
11/10/2008 M3.0 INCH KALKASKA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HR TOTAL THRU 6 AM. 24 HR TOTAL IS 6.0 INCHES.

&&

$$

BERGER

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 100916
SWOD48
SPC AC 100915

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CST MON NOV 10 2008

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...

DAY 4...

SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS NE TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST EARLY
THURSDAY NEAR THE NC COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.
STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWD AND POSSIBLY INTO
ERN NC FROM THE GULF STREAM. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS INLAND EXTENT OF
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED BY RAPID EJECTION OF UPPER TROUGH
WHICH WILL VEER THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
MAY DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL NC WHERE STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
SPREAD ACROSS RETURNING MOIST AXIS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP INLAND FOR A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT.

BEYOND DAY 4...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S. WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN OFFSHORE AND ACROSS FL REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER FORCING AND
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL THE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW
ESPECIALLY BEYOND DAY 6 WHEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
SEWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.

..DIAL.. 11/10/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 100816
SWODY3
SPC AC 100813

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CST MON NOV 10 2008

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TX AND THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WEDNESDAY. AN IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD OUT OF UPPER
TROUGH BASE THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL PROVIDE
IMPETUS FOR A COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SE TX.
A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM FL THROUGH SRN LA...BUT NWD
ADVANCE OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE LIMITED BY WWD EXTENTION OF MID
ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE.

...TX COASTAL AREAS...

SMALL WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN INLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS
WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL MAY BE IN PROGRESS WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER
FORCING OVER SE TX ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING IMPULSE. POTENTIAL
FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST FARTHER SW ALONG THE TX COAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...BUT UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS REGARDING WHETHER STORMS
WILL REDEVELOP BEFORE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. IF FRONT IS SLOWER TO
MOVE OFFSHORE...THEN ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF
HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT WHERE BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
GIVEN THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES...BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK
IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...NWRN GULF COASTAL AREA...

GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS LA IN RESPONSE TO
EJECTING IMPULSE. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE RAPIDLY EJECTS NEWD AWAY
FROM THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY. ESELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
OVER THE SERN U.S. IN ASSOCIATION WITH WWD EXTENSION OF SURFACE
RIDGE WILL LIKELY LIMIT NWD RETURN OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WHILE SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY EXIST IN THE SMALL WARM
SECTOR OVER PARTS OF LA AND SRN MS WHERE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
BE PRESENT...DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL IN THIS REGION WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN LIMITED. WILL INTRODUCE LOW PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME BUT
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

..DIAL.. 11/10/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 100648
SWODY2
SPC AC 100645

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CST MON NOV 10 2008

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SERN TX INTO WRN
LA...

...SYNOPSIS...

COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST TUESDAY. A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AZ/NM AS OF MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH THE MID
MS VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE OH VALLEY. FARTHER WEST A SRN STREAM
POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH NRN MEXICO AND WRN
TX...REACHING CNTRL TX LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT INITIALLY
EXTENDING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER KS SSWWD TO NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF
TX WILL ADVANCE SE DURING THE DAY.

...ERN TX INTO A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

AXIS OF MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR FROM CNTRL TO SE TX WITH NEAR 60 FARTHER NE INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS EARLY TUESDAY
ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO PARTS OF
CNTRL AND ERN TX. THE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT OF LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES MAINLY OVER PARTS OF CNTRL THROUGH
S CNTRL TX EARLY TUESDAY WHERE STORMS MAY BE ROOTED NEAR THE
SURFACE. FARTHER NE TOWARD NE TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY...THE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE SURFACE LAYER.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGER STORMS MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
GIVEN SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR.

AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES NE TOWARD THE OH VALLEY
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE WARM SECTOR WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND HODOGRAPHS SIZE.
HOWEVER...BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT
OF ORGANIZED STORMS. MAIN UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IS HOW MUCH
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN WARM SECTOR GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF
ONGOING CONVECTION. FEED OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR FROM S TX WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER PARTS OF CNTRL
THROUGH SE TX. STORMS MAY CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN WARM MOIST SECTOR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. HEIGHT FALLS AND
COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO OVERTAKE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY REINVIGORATE
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT LATER IN THE
PERIOD. TENDENCY FOR FLOW IN THE 850-750 MB LAYER TO WEAKEN WITH
TIME AND POTENTIAL FOR EARLY CONVECTION COULD SERVE AS LIMITING
FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT.

..DIAL.. 11/10/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 100603
SWODY1
SPC AC 100600

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST MON NOV 10 2008

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EAST TX
AND SOUTHERN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY LARGE SCALE FEATURE OF CONSEQUENCE FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TODAY WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH/JET ALOFT
ADVANCING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY TUESDAY. AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW/COLD
FRONT...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR ESPECIALLY ACROSS
TX WILL LEAD TO AN UPSWING IN SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. ASIDE FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...PROSPECTS
FOR TSTMS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...MUCH OF CENTRAL/EAST TX AND SOUTHERN OK/WESTERN LA...
A BROAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TX/WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST KS.
SOME OF THE STRONGER TSTMS MAY POSE A RISK FOR HAIL TO SEVERE LEVELS
THIS MORNING...BUT A MORE APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK WILL EVOLVE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF TX.

EARLIER EVENING 00Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM BROWNSVILLE TX SAMPLED A
RATHER MOISTURE-RICH BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH A 100 MB MEAN MIXING
RATIO OF 14.0 G/KG...ACROSS FAR SOUTH TX AND THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH TRAJECTORIES ARE SOMEWHAT HAMPERED BY LOW LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...A NARROW AXIS OF
MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL QUICKLY RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS TX TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

IN ADDITION TO INHERENT QUESTIONS REGARDING THE TIMING/QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS TX...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF LOW
LEVEL DESTABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE/NEAR-SURFACE BASED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. PROVIDED SUFFICIENT
INSOLATION/MIXING...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE SURFACE BASED
TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST EAST OF A DRYLINE/SURFACE TROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TX. HIGHLY FAVORABLE KINEMATIC FIELDS AND
VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /50-70 KT 0-6 KM/ WILL SUPPORT
WELL-ORGANIZED TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO CENTRAL TX AND THE TX HILL
COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR SOME TORNADOES...WITH SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS AS WELL.

A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THE NIGHT...MOST
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TX...AND EVENTUALLY
WESTERN LA. THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL...ALONG WITH A
TORNADO RISK...WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A POTENTIAL MCS AND/OR WITH ANY QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

...TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS...
MOISTURE RETURN/SURFACE DESTABILIZATION WILL ESPECIALLY BE LIMITED
WITH NORTH EXTENT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE
LOW/TRIPLE POINT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK. ASIDE FROM
MORNING HAIL POTENTIAL...PROVIDED SUFFICIENT INSOLATION/MODEST
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
HAIL/STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A
ROGUE TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN VICINITY OF THE TRIPLE
POINT/SURFACE OCCLUSION ACROSS THE EASTERN/NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN OK. HOWEVER...OVERALL SCENARIO DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE/BUOYANCY.

..GUYER/BOTHWELL.. 11/10/2008

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