SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110119
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-110515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2365
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB...SERN SD...NWRN IA...FAR SWRN MN
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 110119Z - 110515Z
FREEZING RAIN /OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH SLEET/ WILL LIKELY EXPAND NWD
FROM ERN NEB/W-CNTRL IA. ICE ACCRETION RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.15 IN A
3-HR PERIOD APPEAR PROBABLE.
FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER WRN
KS AND DOWNSTREAM LOWER-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF CNTRL/SRN NEB SINCE
LATE AFTERNOON. A GREATER THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SURFACE ICE
ACCRETION APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE FARTHER NE WHERE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION BAND /FROM AROUND 30 NW LBF TO 20 S SLB AT 0110Z/
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NWD...WITH ADDITIONAL PLUMES OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY FOLLOWING LATER THIS EVENING. 18Z NAM/15Z
NAMKF GUIDANCE WERE BOTH AROUND 5 DEG F TOO WARM/MOIST COMPARED TO
REGIONAL 00Z SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS AND OAX RAOB.
CONSEQUENTLY THE DEPTH AND MAGNITUDE OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
BENEATH ELEVATED WARM NOSE APPEARS TO BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL THAN
FORECAST. AS SUCH...FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY SLEET APPEAR TO BE
THE LIKELY PTYPE INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.
..GRAMS.. 11/11/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF...
LAT...LON 43579536 43079485 42569492 42219578 42239683 42269760
42639825 43049841 43709794 43799754 43759606 43579536
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