KABQ [110340]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 110340
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
940 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0805 PM TSTM WND DMG HOUSE 34.65N 103.90W
08/10/2008 QUAY NM TRAINED SPOTTER

4 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWNED.

&&

$$

34

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KOUN [110314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 110314
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1013 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0505 PM TSTM WND DMG 11 N ARCHER CITY 33.75N 98.63W
08/10/2008 ARCHER TX FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

DOWNBURST WIND DAMAGE IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERSECTION
FM2224 AND SH79. THREE-QUARTERS OF A ROOF BLOWN OFF A
HOUSE. LARGE TREE BLOWN DOWN ONTO ANOTHER HOUSE KNOCKING
DOWN A WALL. ONE WALL AND THE ROOF OF A 60 BY 80 FOOT
METAL BARN BLOWN AWAY. EIGHT TO 10 POWER POLES DOWNED.

&&

$$

CJS

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KGGW [110305]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KGGW 110305
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
901 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0331 PM HAIL 4 W CARLYLE 46.65N 104.16W
08/10/2008 E0.88 INCH WIBAUX MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0400 PM HAIL 8 N GLENTANA 48.96N 106.25W
08/10/2008 E0.75 INCH VALLEY MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0400 PM HAIL 7 ESE WIBAUX 46.95N 104.05W
08/10/2008 E1.00 INCH WIBAUX MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0405 PM HAIL 10 S OPHEIM 48.71N 106.41W
08/10/2008 E0.75 INCH VALLEY MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0510 PM HAIL 6 NE SAVAGE 47.51N 104.25W
08/10/2008 E1.25 INCH RICHLAND MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0522 PM HAIL 2 W CRANE 47.58N 104.30W
08/10/2008 E1.50 INCH RICHLAND MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0525 PM HAIL CRANE 47.58N 104.26W
08/10/2008 E0.75 INCH RICHLAND MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0544 PM TSTM WND GST 4 E WHITETAIL 48.90N 105.07W
08/10/2008 M70.00 MPH DANIELS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0610 PM HAIL 2 E DALEVIEW 48.91N 104.89W
08/10/2008 E0.75 INCH SHERIDAN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 PM TSTM WND GST 8 N RAYMOND 48.99N 104.58W
08/10/2008 E70.00 MPH SHERIDAN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 PM HAIL 20 E BREDETTE 48.50N 104.86W
08/10/2008 E0.75 INCH ROOSEVELT MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0737 PM TSTM WND GST 12 W RESERVE 48.61N 104.72W
08/10/2008 E60.00 MPH SHERIDAN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0830 PM HAIL 4 E DAGMAR 48.58N 104.11W
08/10/2008 E0.75 INCH SHERIDAN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BB

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KBUF [110300]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS51 KBUF 110300
LSRBUF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0110 PM TSTM WND DMG LOCKSLEY PARK 42.76N 78.88W
08/10/2008 ERIE NY PUBLIC

A FEW TREE LIMBS DOWN. SHINGLES AND FLASHING BLOWN OFF A
ROOF. TENTS BLOWN APPROX. 30 FEET.

0311 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 W LANCASTER 42.90N 78.69W
08/10/2008 ERIE NY EMERGENCY MNGR

TRANSIT ROAD BETWEEN WALDEN AND BROADWAY CLOSED.

0535 PM HAIL STERLING 43.33N 76.65W
08/10/2008 E1.00 INCH CAYUGA NY TRAINED SPOTTER

AT THE STERLING RENAISSANCE FESTIVAL

0645 PM HAIL VICTOR 42.98N 77.41W
08/10/2008 E0.75 INCH ONTARIO NY TRAINED SPOTTER

0645 PM HAIL 2 SW VICTOR 42.96N 77.44W
08/10/2008 E1.75 INCH ONTARIO NY LAW ENFORCEMENT

BROKEN WINDSHIELD IN AUTOMOBILE

0705 PM HAIL MINETTO 43.40N 76.48W
08/10/2008 E0.75 INCH OSWEGO NY TRAINED SPOTTER

ALONG THE OSWEGO RIVER

0710 PM HAIL 1 SW OSWEGO 43.45N 76.52W
08/10/2008 E1.00 INCH OSWEGO NY TRAINED SPOTTER

0717 PM HAIL 1 S SCRIBA 43.46N 76.43W
08/10/2008 M1.25 INCH OSWEGO NY TRAINED SPOTTER

0718 PM HAIL 1 NW SCRIBA 43.48N 76.44W
08/10/2008 M1.25 INCH OSWEGO NY PUBLIC

0718 PM HAIL SCRIBA 43.47N 76.43W
08/10/2008 E1.00 INCH OSWEGO NY TRAINED SPOTTER

0719 PM HAIL 1 E OSWEGO 43.46N 76.48W
08/10/2008 E0.88 INCH OSWEGO NY TRAINED SPOTTER

STARTED AS PEA SIZE

&&

$$

HITCHCOCK

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KBYZ [110250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBYZ 110250
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
848 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1237 PM HAIL ALZADA 45.02N 104.42W
08/10/2008 E1.25 INCH CARTER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

1239 PM TORNADO 9 NW ALZADA 45.11N 104.55W
08/10/2008 CARTER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

TWO FUNNELS ENTWINED INTO ONE TOUCHING GROUND

1248 PM TORNADO 10 W ALZADA 45.02N 104.62W
08/10/2008 CARTER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

CAN SEE DEBRIS CLOUD

0411 PM TSTM WND GST 15 N BROADUS 45.66N 105.41W
08/10/2008 E60.00 MPH POWDER RIVER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

DRIVING RAIN WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG RED LODGE 45.19N 109.25W
08/10/2008 CARBON MT PARK/FOREST SRVC

WIND DAMAGE TO ROOF OF RANGER STATION

&&

$$

KBV

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KGGW [110248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KGGW 110248
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
846 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 PM HAIL 4 E DAGMAR 48.58N 104.11W
08/10/2008 E0.75 INCH SHERIDAN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BB

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KPHI [101834]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPHI 101834
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
233 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0135 PM HAIL TURNERSVILLE 40.76N 76.06W
08/10/2008 E0.50 INCH SCHUYLKILL PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0137 PM HAIL TURNERSVILLE 40.76N 76.06W
08/10/2008 E0.75 INCH SCHUYLKILL PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0140 PM HAIL 4 W TURNERSVILLE 40.76N 76.13W
08/10/2008 E0.50 INCH SCHUYLKILL PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0140 PM HAIL 4 W TURNERSVILLE 39.77N 75.14W
08/10/2008 E0.50 INCH GLOUCESTER NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0140 PM HAIL N MULLICA HILL 39.74N 75.22W
08/10/2008 E0.75 INCH GLOUCESTER NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0140 PM HAIL FLEETWOOD 40.46N 75.82W
08/10/2008 E0.50 INCH BERKS PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

1.25 TO 1.50 INCH HAIL

0140 PM HAIL WASHINGTON TOWNSHIP 40.99N 74.07W
08/10/2008 E0.50 INCH BERGEN NJ COUNTY OFFICIAL

0130 PM HAIL 3 NNE ELMER 39.63N 75.16W
08/10/2008 E1.25 INCH SALEM NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0145 PM HAIL 4 W TURNERSVILLE 39.77N 75.14W
08/10/2008 E1.00 INCH GLOUCESTER NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0150 PM HAIL BELTZVILLE STATE PARK 40.87N 75.61W
08/10/2008 E0.88 INCH CARBON PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

0157 PM HAIL 2 NW NEWFIELD 39.57N 75.05W
08/10/2008 E0.25 INCH GLOUCESTER NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0158 PM HAIL N TURNERSVILLE 39.77N 75.06W
08/10/2008 E0.88 INCH GLOUCESTER NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0156 PM HAIL 6 ENE ELMER 39.62N 75.08W
08/10/2008 E0.88 INCH GLOUCESTER NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0156 PM HAIL SOMERDALE 39.85N 75.02W
08/10/2008 E0.50 INCH CAMDEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0156 PM HAIL MANAHAWKIN 39.70N 74.25W
08/10/2008 E1.00 INCH OCEAN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0156 PM HAIL ALBRIGHTSVILLE 41.01N 75.60W
08/10/2008 E0.25 INCH CARBON PA COUNTY OFFICIAL

0156 PM HAIL 6 ENE ELMER 39.62N 75.08W
08/10/2008 E0.25 INCH GLOUCESTER NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0156 PM HAIL 3 W ELVERSON 40.16N 75.89W
08/10/2008 E0.88 INCH BERKS PA TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BC

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KBGM [101832]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 101832
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
232 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM HAIL GREENE 42.33N 75.77W
08/10/2008 U0.75 INCH CHENANGO NY PUBLIC

0230 PM HAIL 2 SSE SOUTH BAY 43.14N 75.75W
08/10/2008 M1.00 INCH MADISON NY AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

EMG

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KCTP [101829]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCTP 101829
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
229 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM HAIL 1 SSW LANCASTER 40.03N 76.31W
08/10/2008 E1.00 INCH LANCASTER PA TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED OVER PRICE TOWN

0110 PM HAIL 2 W WAKEFIELD 39.76N 76.21W
08/10/2008 E1.00 INCH LANCASTER PA TRAINED SPOTTER

1 INCH HAIL REPORTED IN CHERRY HILL.

0150 PM HAIL ST. THOMAS 39.94N 77.74W
08/10/2008 E1.00 INCH FRANKLIN PA TRAINED SPOTTER

1 INCH HAIL REPORTED IN SAINT THOMAS.

0205 PM HAIL CHAMBERSBURG 39.93N 77.66W
08/10/2008 E1.00 INCH FRANKLIN PA TRAINED SPOTTER

1 INCH HAIL AND SEVERAL SMALL LIMBS DOWN REPORTED IN
CHAMBERSBURG.

0227 PM HAIL FAYETTEVILLE 39.91N 77.57W
08/10/2008 E1.75 INCH FRANKLIN PA TRAINED SPOTTER

1 3/4 INCH HAIL REPORTED IN FAYETTEVILLE.

&&

$$

VGC

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KGYX [101827]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KGYX 101827
LSRGYX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
226 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0220 PM HAIL WNW SHAPLEIGH 43.54N 70.85W
08/10/2008 M0.75 INCH YORK ME TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BM

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KTFX [101823]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 101823
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1223 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0115 PM HAIL 9 N MONIDA 44.69N 112.31W
08/09/2008 E1.25 INCH BEAVERHEAD MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE...CAUSED A VEHICLE ACCIDENT
ON INTERSTATE 15...ABOUT 9 MILES NORTH OF MONIDA.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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KLWX [101820]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 101820
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
220 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0216 PM HAIL 1 N ELKTON 38.43N 78.62W
08/10/2008 E1.25 INCH ROCKINGHAM VA TRAINED SPOTTER

HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

&&

$$

SMZ

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KLWX [101816]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 101816
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
216 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0215 PM HAIL 1 N ELKTON 38.43N 78.62W
08/10/2008 E1.00 INCH ROCKINGHAM VA TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

$$

SMZ

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2065

ACUS11 KWNS 101811
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101810
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-101945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2065
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0110 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN MT / WRN DKTS / NERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101810Z - 101945Z

PARTS OF SERN MT / WRN DKTS / NERN WY ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT HR.

RECENT RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING STORMS IN NERN WY
EXTENDING NWD INTO SERN MT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER WY. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR MLS
WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. RICHER MOISTURE
/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S/ IS LOCATED E OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE...WHERE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS
DEVELOPED /2000 J/KG MLCAPE/. AS A RESULT...STORMS WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO HIGHER THETA-E AIR. DESPITE MARGINAL
DEEP FLOW ALOFT PER RECENT AREA VWP/S...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO STRONG INSOLATION THE PAST FEW HOURS
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND THREAT. THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AS WELL.

..SMITH.. 08/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...

43430458 44590499 45860549 46360557 47000525 47090422
46560280 45810135 45280140 44730242 43490287 43180391

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KBGM [101807]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KBGM 101807
LSRBGM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
207 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 PM HAIL 2 ENE NORTH NORWICH 42.63N 75.50W
08/10/2008 M1.75 INCH CHENANGO NY AMATEUR RADIO

0152 PM HAIL NORTH NORWICH 42.62N 75.53W
08/10/2008 E0.75 INCH CHENANGO NY AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

EMG

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KLWX [101807]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 101807
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
206 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1254 PM HAIL 4 E NEW MARKET 38.64N 78.61W
08/10/2008 E0.88 INCH PAGE VA TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

$$

SMZ

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 819

WWUS20 KWNS 101752
SEL9
SPC WW 101752
NYZ000-PAZ000-102300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 819
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL NEW YORK
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL 700
PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 40
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF WILKESBARRE PENNSYLVANIA TO 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
UTICA NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 817...WW 818...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF UPPER LOW
AS SURFACE HEATING MAINTAINS MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY.
LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH THE MORE ROBUST CORES...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22025.

...EVANS

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KLWX [101739]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 101739
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
139 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0135 PM HAIL JOPPATOWNE 39.42N 76.35W
08/10/2008 E0.75 INCH HARFORD MD TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY SIZE HAIL.

&&

$$

SMZ

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 818

WWUS20 KWNS 101734
SEL8
SPC WW 101734
DCZ000-MDZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-CWZ000-102300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 818
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
MARYLAND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
FAR EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL 700
PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST
OF DOVER DELAWARE TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF STAUNTON
VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 817...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING/STRENGTHENING
AHEAD OF UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE
REGION TODAY. STRONGEST CELLS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BOTH LARGE HAIL
AND A THREAT OF STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.

...EVANS

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KPHI [101731]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPHI 101731
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
130 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 PM HAIL 2 NW POTTSTOWN 40.27N 75.67W
08/10/2008 E0.25 INCH MONTGOMERY PA TRAINED SPOTTER

1235 PM HAIL PENNS GROVE 39.73N 75.47W
08/10/2008 E1.25 INCH SALEM NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

1235 PM FUNNEL CLOUD PENNS GROVE 39.73N 75.47W
08/10/2008 SALEM NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

1234 PM HAIL MARCUS HOOK 39.81N 75.42W
08/10/2008 E1.00 INCH DELAWARE PA TRAINED SPOTTER

1255 PM LIGHTNING WEST CHESTER 39.96N 75.61W
08/10/2008 CHESTER PA TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREE DOWN

0100 PM HAIL NORTH CAPE MAY 38.98N 74.95W
08/10/2008 E0.50 INCH CAPE MAY NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0103 PM HAIL ERMA 39.00N 74.89W
08/10/2008 E1.00 INCH CAPE MAY NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0103 PM HAIL ERMA 39.00N 74.89W
08/10/2008 E1.75 INCH CAPE MAY NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0103 PM HAIL BEERSVILLE 40.75N 75.47W
08/10/2008 E0.25 INCH NORTHAMPTON PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0110 PM HAIL GREEN CREEK 39.05N 74.90W
08/10/2008 E1.00 INCH CAPE MAY NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0110 PM HAIL LEHIGH UNIVERSITY 40.61N 75.38W
08/10/2008 E0.50 INCH NORTHAMPTON PA TRAINED SPOTTER

0105 PM HAIL RIO GRANDE 39.02N 74.88W
08/10/2008 E0.75 INCH CAPE MAY NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

0130 PM HAIL WOODBINE 39.23N 74.81W
08/10/2008 E0.88 INCH CAPE MAY NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BC

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 101726
SWODY2
SPC AC 101724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY
BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE NRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY...MODEL
FORECASTS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS FROM ERN CO AND
WRN KS NWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL NEB BY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVER CNTRL AND
ERN NEB BY MIDDAY WITH OTHER STORMS INITIATING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND
SWD AS STORMS ALSO INITIATE ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN THE
AFTERNOON. MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AS SUGGESTED
BY THE NAM AND NAMKF SOLUTIONS.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS AT 21Z SHOW 30 TO 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGLY VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS ALONG WITH 850 TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST WITH
SUPERCELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. LINEAR CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND CONVECTION
CONGEALS IN THE EARLY EVENING. IF THIS OCCURS...AN ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CNTRL ND
BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO WEAKER VERTICAL
SHEAR.

...SRN PLAINS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE SRN FRINGE
OF THIS FEATURE MAY AFFECT THE SRN PLAINS ALTHOUGH FLOW SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY...MODEL FORECASTS
DEVELOP AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLD
FRONT FROM WEST TX EWD INTO THE ARKLATEX. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS SFC TEMPS
WARM EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE PEAKING NEAR
MAX HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY AT 21Z MONDAY
GENERALLY SHOW 20 TO 30 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR MOSTLY DUE TO AN
ABRUPT WIND DIRECTION CHANGE AROUND 850 MB. THIS SUGGESTS AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WILL BE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER
MULTICELLS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAIL
MAY ALSO OCCUR WHERE CELLS HAVE ACCESS TO LOCALLY MAXIMIZED
INSTABILITY.

...DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY. AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL BE IN
PLACE JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
BE ONGOING IN THE NRN QUADRANT OF THE LOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASING BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK /0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT/ COLD AIR ALOFT NEAR THE CORE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -18C COMBINED WITH SFC
HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A HAIL THREAT EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 08/10/2008

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KLWX [101715]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 101715
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
115 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0112 PM HAIL 5 NE WHITE MARSH 39.45N 76.40W
08/10/2008 E0.75 INCH BALTIMORE MD TRAINED SPOTTER

PENNY SIZE HAIL.

&&

$$

SMZ

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KTFX [101708]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 101708
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1108 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM TSTM WND GST VAUGHN 47.56N 111.54W
08/09/2008 E60 MPH CASCADE MT AMATEUR RADIO

ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH.

&&

$$

BRUSDA

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2064

ACUS11 KWNS 101706
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101705
NYZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-101830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2064
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE DELMARVA PEN INTO LWR HUDSON
VALLEY/PARTS SRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 817...

VALID 101705Z - 101830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 817
CONTINUES.

SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO FORM AS DESTABILIZATION
PROGRESSES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE MOST VIGOROUS ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...INTO EASTERN DELAWARE/MARYLAND COASTAL AREAS...NEAR AN
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT. THIS IS WHERE A BETTER INFLOW OF RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THE CHESAPEAKE/DELAMARVA
REGION EXISTS...BENEATH A STRONGER DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD WHICH
IS PROGGED TO LINGER OVER THE REGION TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES CLOSED LOW. OUTFLOW FROM AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTION...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY INTO DELAWARE...APPEARS LIKELY TO
REINFORCE AND STALL THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. AND...THICKENING CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH
SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY INTO THE GREATER
NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA.

..KERR.. 08/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

37697513 37777581 38427586 38907629 39377663 40837566
42227480 43347486 43667434 43707316 43407274 41547295
39637374

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KLWX [101701]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KLWX 101701
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
100 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1254 PM HAIL NEW MARKET 38.65N 78.67W
08/10/2008 E0.88 INCH SHENANDOAH VA TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL-SIZE HAIL.

&&

$$

SMZ

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KTFX [101658]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KTFX 101658
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1057 AM MDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0250 PM TSTM WND GST 1 NE CHOTEAU 47.82N 112.16W
08/09/2008 E65.00 MPH TETON MT CO-OP OBSERVER

57 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AT THE CHOTEAU COUNTY
AIRPORT...WITH PEAK GUSTS ESTIMATED UP TO 65 MPH.

0258 PM TSTM WND GST 5 SSE ADEL 47.00N 111.54W
08/09/2008 E55.00 MPH CASCADE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED WINDS NEAR 55 MPH.

0333 PM TSTM WND GST 5 WSW GREAT FALLS 47.48N 111.39W
08/09/2008 M55.00 MPH CASCADE MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

55 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE GREAT FALLS INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT.

0340 PM TSTM WND DMG CHOTEAU 47.81N 112.18W
08/09/2008 TETON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

TREE BRANCHES UP TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER BLOWN DOWN.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS SECTION FOR EACH OF THESE REPORTS.

$$

BRUSDA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101621
SWODY1
SPC AC 101618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NC/VA INTO THE
NEW ENGLAND/LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...NC/VA ACROSS MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO SRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG/COLD MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE EWD
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING
WLY FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SWD
INTO NC. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO TO
TWO CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO
LINES/SUPERCELLS INVOF THE STRONGER SHEAR FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWD.

POCKET OF UNSEASONABLY COLD MID LEVEL AIR OBSERVED ON AREA SOUNDINGS
WILL MAINTAIN ACTIVE DAY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...DESPITE THE
MODEST LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR IN PLACE. WILL LIKELY SEE AXIS OF
1000+ J/KG MLCAPE DEVELOP NWD ACROSS MUCH OF ERN PA/NY AND WRN/SRN
NEW ENGLAND...ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO APPROACHING UPPER LOW. VERY COLD MID LEVEL AIR AND
SURFACE HEATING SHOULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL...MORE WEAKLY ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT TO FORM EWD AWAY FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. GREATER
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED SWD ACROSS MD/DE/ERN VA/NC...THOUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON MOIST CONVECTION NOW OVER CENTRAL NC/SERN VA WILL DELAY
INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THIS AREA. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS THIS REGION INVOF 40-50 KT WLY MID
LEVEL JET.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD TODAY
AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL IMPULSE SPREADING EWD ACROSS WY ON
MORNING WV IMAGERY. INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL
INTERACT WITH DEVELOPING MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SUPPORT GENERAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS FROM
PARTS OF ERN WY NWD INTO ERN MT/WRN ND. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN
BE EXPECTED INVOF SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MT
LATER TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO WEAK...BUT
SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAKLY ORGANIZED LINES/CLUSTERS WITH
THREATS OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

...SE OK/ARKLATEX/E TX...
MODERATE TO STRONG HEATING WITHIN VERY MOIST AIR MASS SOUTH OF
WEAKENING MCS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW OVER PARTS
OF OK INTO SRN AR. WITH SFC TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH 100F S OF
THE FRONT...WARM SECTOR STORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE RELATIVELY
HIGH-BASED. COUPLED WITH HIGH /NEARLY 2 INCH/ PW ACROSS
REGION...SETUP COULD SUPPORT ISOLD DAMAGING MICROBURSTS.
HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE BRIEF-LIVED FROM INDIVIDUAL CORES
AS MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE WEAK.

..EVANS/SMITH.. 08/10/2008

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KMHX [101555]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 101555
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1155 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1145 AM WATER SPOUT 10 S INDIAN BEACH 34.54N 76.89W
08/10/2008 AMZ158 NC LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPLAYED REPORT OF WATER SPOUT ABOUT 10
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOGUE INLET.

&&

$$

JBM

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KPHI [101549]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KPHI 101549
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1149 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1103 AM HAIL 2 SE COATESVILLE 39.96N 75.79W
08/10/2008 E0.88 INCH CHESTER PA TRAINED SPOTTER

1110 AM HAIL 2 SE EXTON 40.01N 75.60W
08/10/2008 E1.75 INCH CHESTER PA TRAINED SPOTTER

1110 AM HAIL CLAYTON 39.66N 75.08W
08/10/2008 E0.88 INCH GLOUCESTER NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

1114 AM HAIL GLASSBORO 39.70N 75.11W
08/10/2008 E0.50 INCH GLOUCESTER NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

1115 AM HAIL WEST CHESTER 39.96N 75.61W
08/10/2008 E2.00 INCH CHESTER PA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

1115 AM HAIL EXTON 40.03N 75.63W
08/10/2008 E0.88 INCH CHESTER PA NWS EMPLOYEE

1117 AM HAIL 1 NE GLASSBORO 39.71N 75.10W
08/10/2008 E0.50 INCH GLOUCESTER NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

1126 AM HAIL 2 E PITMAN 39.73N 75.09W
08/10/2008 E1.00 INCH GLOUCESTER NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

1134 AM HAIL PITMAN 39.73N 75.13W
08/10/2008 E1.00 INCH GLOUCESTER NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

1142 AM HAIL 4 S BERLIN 39.74N 74.94W
08/10/2008 E1.00 INCH CAMDEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JJM

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KALY [101538]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 101538
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1138 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1136 AM HAIL CANAJOHARIE 42.90N 74.57W
08/10/2008 E1.00 INCH MONTGOMERY NY TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

FRUGIS

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KPHI [101538]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KPHI 101538
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1138 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0958 AM HAIL RIO GRANDE 39.02N 74.88W
08/10/2008 E0.75 INCH CAPE MAY NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

1000 AM HAIL GREEN CREEK 39.05N 74.90W
08/10/2008 E0.25 INCH CAPE MAY NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

1040 AM HAIL WILMINGTON MANOR 39.69N 75.58W
08/10/2008 E1.00 INCH NEW CASTLE DE TRAINED SPOTTER

1103 AM HAIL 2 SE COATESVILLE 39.96N 75.79W
08/10/2008 E0.88 INCH CHESTER PA TRAINED SPOTTER

1110 AM HAIL CLAYTON 39.66N 75.08W
08/10/2008 E0.88 INCH GLOUCESTER NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

1110 AM HAIL 2 SE EXTON 40.01N 75.60W
08/10/2008 E1.75 INCH CHESTER PA TRAINED SPOTTER

1114 AM HAIL GLASSBORO 39.70N 75.11W
08/10/2008 E0.50 INCH GLOUCESTER NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

1115 AM HAIL EXTON 40.03N 75.63W
08/10/2008 E0.88 INCH CHESTER PA NWS EMPLOYEE

1115 AM HAIL WEST CHESTER 39.96N 75.61W
08/10/2008 E2.00 INCH CHESTER PA OFFICIAL NWS OBS

1117 AM HAIL 1 NE GLASSBORO 39.71N 75.10W
08/10/2008 E0.50 INCH GLOUCESTER NJ TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JJM

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KALY [101527]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KALY 101527
LSRALY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1127 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1125 AM HAIL AMES 42.84N 74.60W
08/10/2008 E1.00 INCH MONTGOMERY NY TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL RANGING FROM PEA SIZE TO QUARTER SIZE IN DIAMETER

&&

$$

FRUGIS

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 817

WWUS20 KWNS 101440
SEL7
SPC WW 101440
CTZ000-DEZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-VTZ000-CWZ000-102300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 817
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN CONNECTICUT
NORTHERN DELAWARE
FAR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
NEW JERSEY
EASTERN NEW YORK
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
FAR SOUTHERN VERMONT
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1040 AM UNTIL 700
PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF GLENS
FALLS NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD AS
AFTERNOON HEATING ELIMINATES SURFACE INHIBITION AND BOOSTS MLCAPE
INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THIS REGION. VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL THREAT...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...DESPITE THE MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22015.

...EVANS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2063

ACUS11 KWNS 101427
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101427
NYZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-101500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2063
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0927 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MID ATLC COASTAL AREAS INTO LWR HUDSON VLY/SRN
NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 101427Z - 101500Z

A WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

A NARROW TONGUE OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA THROUGH THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IS CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. INHIBITION BENEATH A SEASONABLY COLD
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEAST STATES IS WEAK. AND...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY. INCREASE IN COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...PERHAPS AIDED BY A ZONE OF ENHANCED FORCING
FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PIVOTING AROUND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
CLOSED LOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MEAN FLOW FIELDS EAST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER ARE GENERALLY WEAK. BUT...MIXED LAYER CAPE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY STEEP AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL PROMOTE THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS...IN ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR HAIL.

..KERR.. 08/10/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

38507440 38377549 38617633 39347638 40027608 41207508
42397460 43167452 43557368 43057255 42347230 41837242
40867269 40537294 39787330 38827415

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101303
SWODY1
SPC AC 101300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...NY AND NEW ENG...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
ANOMALOUS...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.
CLOSED LOW IN SRN BC WILL MOVE ENE INTO CNTRL AB BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WHILE ASSOCIATED IMPULSE NOW IN SE ID/NE UT CONTINUES E/NE
INTO THE WRN DAKS/NEB. IN THE EAST...COMPACT CLOSED LOW NOW OVER
SRN ONTARIO EXPECTED TO DRIFT SE INTO CNTRL PA.

AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH BC/AB UPR SYSTEM WILL MOVE E
ACROSS MT AND OVERTAKE LEE TROUGH/LOW IN ERN PART OF STATE...AS WEAK
FRONT WITH WAVE NOW OVER THE SRN PLNS SETTLES SLOWLY E/SEWD. IN THE
EAST...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT OVER MD/DE/NJ. THE LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR THE NJ
CST AT 12Z MONDAY.

...MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO WRN/SRN NEW ENG...
DEEP...ANOMALOUS CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
AND ERN STATES TODAY...IN SERN QUADRANT OF STRONG UPR LOW.
UNUSUALLY COOL AIR WILL BE PRESENT AT MID LVLS...WITH TEMPERATURES
AOB MINUS 15C FROM MD/DE/WV AND NRN VA NEWD INTO NY/NEW ENG.
MODERATE DEEP SHEAR WILL ALSO EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DELMARVA
REGION INTO SRN PA AND NJ...ALONG AXIS OF 35-40 KT W TO WSWLY MID
LVL JET.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE MODEST BY AUGUST STANDARDS...WITH
AVERAGE SFC DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN WEAK CINH AND STEEP MID LVL LAPSE
RATES...EXPECT WIDELY SCTD STORMS NOW PRESENT TO MARKEDLY INCREASE
IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WITH SFC HEATING LATER THIS MORNING.
COMBINATION OF INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD
YIELD NUMEROUS STRONG TO SVR SUSTAINED STORMS...INCLUDING SOME
SUPERCELLS....BY EARLY TO MID AFTN. THESE SHOULD BE MOST
CONCENTRATED FROM SRN NY THROUGH CNTRL/ERN PA INTO CNTRL/ERN MD...DE
AND NJ....AND MAY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT FROM ERN NC/SE VA ACROSS THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA INTO NJ.

COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL
IN STRONGER/MORE SUSTAINED STORMS. DMGG WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES
MAY ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA INTO ERN PA/DE
AND NJ. THE STORMS...ALONG WITH A LIMITED SVR THREAT...COULD LINGER
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY IN THE NYC AREA/SRN NEW ENG...WHERE UVV AND LOW
LVL MOIST INFLOW WILL FOCUS DOWNSTREAM FROM ADVANCING UPR SYSTEM.

...NRN HI PLNS...
NRN PLNS UPR RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN TODAY...ALTHOUGH
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E AS ID/UT IMPULSE
CONTINUES ENEWD. COUPLED WITH STRONG HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC
INFLUENCES...EXPECT EXISTING STORMS INVOF LEE TROUGH IN WY...AND
THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA IN THE WRN DAKS...TO STRENGTHEN AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY BY EARLY AFTN. OTHER STORMS MAY
FORM A BIT LATER ALONG COLD FRONT IN CNTRL/ERN MT.

WIND PROFILES ALONG LEE TROUGH AND IN THE DAKS WILL FEATURE
SUBSTANTIAL VEERING...WITH CONVERGENT SELY LOW LVL WINDS BENEATH
MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SETUP COULD YIELD LOOSELY-ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS OF STORMS INCLUDING A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS WITH SVR HAIL AND
LOCALLY DMGG WINDS THROUGH THIS EVE. LOCALLY DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL ALSO COULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL STORMS WITH DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW IN MT LATER TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.

...SE OK/ARKLATEX/E TX...
TSTMS LIKELY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH WITH SFC HEATING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT/WAVE MOVING SEWD FROM THE RED RVR VLY
TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY PERSISTENT SSWLY LLJ THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. WITH SFC TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH 100F S OF THE
FRONT...STORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED. COUPLED
WITH HIGH /NEARLY 2 INCH/ PW ACROSS REGION ...SETUP COULD SUPPORT
ISOLD DMGG MICROBURSTS. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SVR WIND. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY
BE WARRANTED LATER TODAY IF A DISTINCT CORRIDOR BECOMES APPARENT
WHEREIN STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION WILL MORE CLEARLY SUPPORT AN
ORGANIZED WIND THREAT.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 08/10/2008

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KICT [101150]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 101150
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
650 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0643 AM FLASH FLOOD 4 S ELK CITY 37.23N 95.91W
08/10/2008 MONTGOMERY KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS NUMEROUS COUNTY ROADS ARE WATER
COVERED SOUTH OF ELK CITY.

0650 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 W ELK FALLS 37.37N 96.28W
08/10/2008 ELK KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS ABOUT 6 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER OVER
HIGHWAY 160 NEAR MILE MARKER 384.

&&

$$

RBL

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KMHX [101111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KMHX 101111
LSRMHX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
711 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM WATER SPOUT 3 SE ATLANTIC BEACH 34.67N 76.70W
08/10/2008 AMZ158 NC PUBLIC

SEVERAL SIGHTINGS OF WATERSPOUTS OFF OF BEAUFORT INLET.

0700 AM WATER SPOUT 10 SW RODANTHE 35.51N 75.59W
08/10/2008 AMZ135 NC PUBLIC

REPORT OF WATERSPOUT WEST OF WAVES.

0658 AM WATER SPOUT 3 SE ATLANTIC BEACH 34.67N 76.70W
08/10/2008 AMZ158 NC EMERGENCY MNGR

2 WATERSPOUTS AND A FUNNEL CLOUD WERE SPOTTED OFF
BEAUFORT INLET.

0708 AM WATER SPOUT 5 SW RODANTHE 35.56N 75.52W
08/10/2008 AMZ135 NC EMERGENCY MNGR

WATERSPOUT SPOTTED OVER PAMLICO SOUND MOVING EAST.

0709 AM WATER SPOUT 5 S MOREHEAD CITY 34.65N 76.73W
08/10/2008 AMZ158 NC COUNTY OFFICIAL

WATERSPOUT OVER BOGUE SOUND.

0709 AM WATER SPOUT SW RODANTHE 35.61N 75.46W
08/10/2008 DARE NC COUNTY OFFICIAL

FUNNEL CLOUDS OVER PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

$$

SJAMISON

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KICT [101028]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 101028
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
527 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0525 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 W ELK FALLS 37.37N 96.28W
08/10/2008 ELK KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS WATER OVER HIGHWAY 160 AT MILE
MARKER 382 AND 384 AND ALSO AT THE INTERSECTION OF ROAD
18.

&&

$$

RBL

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 100822
SWOD48
SPC AC 100822

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...

THE GFS HAS NOW TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF IN THE EVOLUTION OF AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LOW OR TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS INTO MS
AND OH VALLEYS ON DAYS 5 /THU AUG 14TH/ THROUGH 8 /SUN AUG 17TH/.
SUCH A PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN THE SWD MOVEMENT OF A SEASONABLY
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS...AND THEN MORE EWD THROUGH THE
MS/OH VALLEYS AND GULF COAST STATES. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR A SEQUENCE OF SEVERE WEATHER EPISODES.

SOME RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY STILL EXISTS WITH REGARD TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN...NAMELY WITH THE GFS. THEREFORE...NO
REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREAS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.
HOWEVER...SHOULD MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A SIMILAR PATTERN EVOLUTION
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS...ONE OR MORE AREAS MAY HAVE TO BE
INCLUDED IN THE NEXT EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

..MEAD.. 08/10/2008

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KICT [100745]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 100745
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
245 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 AM FLOOD HOWARD 37.47N 96.26W
08/10/2008 ELK KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER OVER NUMEROUS RODAS IN THE TOWN OF HOWARD.

&&

$$

RBL

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KICT [100734]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 100734
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
234 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0233 AM FLOOD ELK CITY 37.29N 95.91W
08/10/2008 MONTGOMERY KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER REPORTED OVER COUNTY ROADS NEAR ELK CITY.

&&

$$

RBL

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 100726
SWODY3
SPC AC 100724

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS DURING
THE DAY THREE PERIOD...FEATURING A LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE E AND
RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. MORE SPECIFICALLY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL DIG SEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST
STATES WHILE AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE MOVES SSEWD FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY THROUGH IA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO
THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE ARKLATEX EWD ALONG
A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. A
SECONDARY WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP SWD FROM MN TOWARD
THE LOWER MO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...RIDGING INITIALLY OVER THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS WILL WEAKEN WITH WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER ERN CO.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

FALLING PRESSURES IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL
ELY/SELY FLOW...EFFECTIVELY MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER BENEATH THE ERN EDGE OF STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY
NOTABLE IMPULSES CRESTING MIDLEVEL RIDGE AXIS DURING THE PERIOD.
BUT...THE ABOVEMENTIONED RESPONSE TO THE LEE TROUGHING/CYCLOGENESIS
WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE TERRAIN/UPSLOPE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES THROUGH
THE LOWEST 3 KM WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
LONGER-LIVED...ROTATING UPDRAFTS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS.

...ERN NEB/IA...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A SMALL CORRIDOR OF MODEST
INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON INVOF
WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN CONCERT WITH
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE A
FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

...GULF COAST STATES...

WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK...PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE QUITE MOIST...LARGELY CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON. ARRIVAL OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH SHOULD
SERVE TO ENHANCE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DIURNAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. UPSCALE GROWTH OF INDIVIDUAL
STORMS INTO CLUSTERS APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..MEAD.. 08/10/2008

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KICT [100636]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 100636
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
136 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0133 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 S CLIMAX 37.65N 96.22W
08/10/2008 GREENWOOD KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER OVER HIGHWAY 99 NEAR MILE MARKER 49. ALSO NUMEROUS
FLOOD PRONE ROADS UNDER WATER ACROSS THE COUNTY.

&&

$$

RBL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 100553
SWODY1
SPC AC 100550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO
SRN NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...ERN U.S...

IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO PA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
FEATURE IS WELL IDENTIFIED ON EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUPPORTING THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THERMAL PROFILES WILL COOL
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WHERE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF DEEP LOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SUGGEST ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP FROM THE NC/VA BORDER...NWD INTO SERN PA/SRN NJ
COULD CERTAINLY ROTATE GIVEN SFC-6KM SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
35KT. LATEST THINKING IS BOUNDARY LAYER WILL WARM RAPIDLY BY MID
DAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN EARLY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS UPSTATE NY...SWD INTO CNTRL PA...ALONG/AHEAD OF ADVANCING
WIND SHIFT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE CAROLINAS...NWD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MID
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DEEPENING CYCLONIC FLOW AND
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT. COOL THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR HAIL
WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS...WHILE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. CONVECTION MAY
LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF ADVANCING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...THOUGH IT APPEARS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TOP THE RIDGE
ACROSS ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE WOULD CERTAINLY
ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS
AS INHIBITION IS REMOVED DUE TO STRONG HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK REGION INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITHIN
THE COLUMN...WITH CONVERGENT SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO AID
UPDRAFT STRENGTH/LONGEVITY. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW IS SOMEWHAT
WEAK...STORM ROTATION MAY BE NOTED AND A FEW WEAK SUPERCELLS COULD
CERTAINLY DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. OTHERWISE...MULTIPLE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS MAY EVOLVE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
AIDED BY WEAK LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

...SERN OK/ARKLATEX...

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ONGOING MCS ACROSS SERN
KS/NERN OK/AR WILL BE LONG LIVED AND LIKELY ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NOTABLE LLJ THAT SHOULD EXTEND
FROM N TX INTO NWRN AR AT 12Z. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND A GRADUAL SWD
SHIFT TO LARGER SCALE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN FOCUSED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE RED RIVER OF OK/TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SFC TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN SOAR TO NEAR 100F SOUTH OF THE
FRONT RESULTING IN RELATIVELY HIGH BASED STRUCTURES. GIVEN THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT ACROSS THIS REGION THERE APPEARS TO BE
SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. AT THIS TIME WILL
MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR WIND...HOWEVER AN UPGRADE MAY BE
WARRANTED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT AN
ORGANIZED ZONE OF CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP.

..DARROW/HURLBUT.. 08/10/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 100532
SWODY2
SPC AC 100530

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT SUN AUG 10 2008

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE LIFTING NEWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
MEANWHILE...PHASING OF SEPARATE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL OCCUR OVER
THE DAKOTAS WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS
ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW
ATTENDANT TO THE NERN U.S. UPPER SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS SRN
NEW ENGLAND. OVER THE PLAINS STATES...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WITH THE BOUNDARY TRAILING SWWD INTO THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER S...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SWD
THROUGH TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT A BAND OF
ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS
INTO WRN NEB IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH AIR MASS RECOVERY
EXPECTED IN IT/S WAKE ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HERE...DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S COUPLED WITH A NARROW EML/STEEP LAPSE
RATE PLUME WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-2000 J/KG.

APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL FORCING ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTMS BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE WRN OR CNTRL DAKOTAS SWD INTO WRN NEB
AND ERN CO/NWRN KS. THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 35-40 KT/ WILL
EXIST ACROSS NEB PORTION OF SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. ELSEWHERE...ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS APPEAR LIKELY WITH
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...

SCATTERED...DIURNAL STORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SAGGING SWD. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS OVER WRN/CNTRL TX WILL BE QUITE
HOT WITH 30-40 F TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS. THESE DRIER BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY...BUT WILL ALSO ENHANCE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING/STRONG
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER. OVER E TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE MUCH MORE MOIST AND
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE. HERE TOO...STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF GUSTY WINDS...BUT THROUGH WATER LOADING/WET
MICROBURST PROCESSES.

...HUDSON VALLEY INTO CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND...

BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL /TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S/ BUT MOIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING EWD
ACROSS REGION. HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES OF -16 TO -18 C AT
500 MB WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES
GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J PER KG/. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HAIL.

..MEAD.. 08/10/2008

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KJAX [100447]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 100447
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1245 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM LIGHTNING PONTE VEDRA BEACH 30.24N 81.39W
08/08/2008 ST. JOHNS FL BROADCAST MEDIA

LIGHTNING STRUCK THE VILLAS AT PONTE VEDRA BEACH AND
CAUSED A FIRE THAT DAMAGED 19 TOWNHOUSE ROOMS IN A
BUILDING. TIME OF THE EVENT IS ESTIMATED BASED ON
LIGHTNING DATA PLOTS.

&&

$$

ARS

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KDTX [100428]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 100428
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1228 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0407 PM TSTM WND DMG TROY 42.58N 83.14W
08/09/2008 OAKLAND MI BROADCAST MEDIA

LOCAL MEDIA REPORTED TREE LIMBS AND WIRES DOWN.

&&

$$

SF

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