KBYZ [020119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 020119
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
718 PM MDT SAT OCT 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0625 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 S ROUNDUP 46.30N 108.54W
10/01/2011 MUSSELSHELL MT PUBLIC

LARGE 10 X 20 FT HORSE SHED DESTROYED BY WINDS.

&&

$$

BT

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020055
SWODY1
SPC AC 020053

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2011

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TONIGHT AS A SFC LOW OFF THE COAST OF SRN NEW ENGLAND MOVES WWD.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AS A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IMPINGES ON THE MOIST
AXIS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SFC LOW CENTER. IN THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND CNTRL ROCKIES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NONE OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CONUS.

..BROYLES.. 10/02/2011

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KTFX [012215]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 012215
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
415 PM MDT SAT OCT 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0339 PM TSTM WND GST 3 WNW EAST HELENA 46.61N 111.96W
10/01/2011 M52 MPH LEWIS AND CLARK MT ASOS

&&

$$

HOENISCH

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KMFR [012047]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 012047
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
147 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NE VALLEY FALLS 42.36N 120.25W
10/01/2011 M51 MPH LAKE OR PUBLIC

LARRY CONN REPORTED AT 4288FT

&&

$$

MOTTENWE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 012002
SWODY1
SPC AC 012000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2011

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
NO CHANGES TO PRIOR FORECAST. ATTENDANT TO A SURFACE LOW NEAR
SOUTHEAST MA THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARY WARM/MOIST SECTOR IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AND SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

..GUYER.. 10/01/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2011/

...SE NEW ENGLAND...
16Z SFC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE COASTAL WRMFNT HAS DEVELOPED NWWD
INTO FAR SE MA WITH A MESOLOW EVIDENT IN VIS SATL IMAGERY EAST OF
LONG ISLAND. LATTER FEATURE WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS FAR SE MA THIS
AFTN. SYNOPTIC LOW WILL TEND TO REMAIN/REFORM S OF LONG ISLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT AS NEXT SIGNIFICANT MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES
NEWD AROUND THE WRN VA UPR LOW TOWARD NJ/DELMARVA.

WARM SECTOR ACROSS SE MA IS CHARACTERIZED BY LWR-MID 60S SFC DEW
POINTS AND WITH MODEST INSOLATION /CLOUDS THINNING FROM S-N/ THIS
AFTN...MLCAPES MAY APPROACH 750 J/KG. TOPS OF ANY CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS THAT MAY FORM NEAR THE FRONT MAY REACH INTO THE ICING LAYER
/HEIGHT OF MINUS 20 DEG C LEVEL/ AND ISOLD TSTMS COULD OCCUR
MID-LATE THIS AFTN. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
APPRECIABLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY OBSERVED /AOB 70 M2/S2 0-1KM
SRH/ AND ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WOULD ARGUE
AGAINST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVE. THUS...THE TWO
PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY HAS BEEN REMOVED.

BANDS OF CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER
ERN MA NWWD INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE APPROACHING COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WITH
CONCOMITANT INCREASE IN SELY LOW/MID-LVL FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY ELEVATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

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KOKX [011818]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KOKX 011818
LSROKX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
218 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM COASTAL FLOOD 1 ESE COS COB 41.03N 73.59W
10/01/2011 FAIRFIELD CT TRAINED SPOTTER

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT RIVERSIDE AVENUE AND CLUB
ROAD

&&

$$

DAS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 011717
SWODY2
SPC AC 011715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT SAT OCT 01 2011

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL FLUCTUATE LITTLE THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE REGIME PREVAILS. A DEEP/CLOSED EASTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL STATES AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFYING EASTERN PACIFIC/WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH.

A COOL/STABLE AIRMASS WILL BE PREVALENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED/EMBEDDED TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY/NEW ENGLAND AMID A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL OTHERWISE BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE ROCKIES/INTERIOR
WEST/EASTERN GREAT BASIN. IN EITHER CASE...SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

..GUYER.. 10/01/2011

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011631
SWODY1
SPC AC 011629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2011

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SE NEW ENGLAND...
16Z SFC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE COASTAL WRMFNT HAS DEVELOPED NWWD
INTO FAR SE MA WITH A MESOLOW EVIDENT IN VIS SATL IMAGERY EAST OF
LONG ISLAND. LATTER FEATURE WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS FAR SE MA THIS
AFTN. SYNOPTIC LOW WILL TEND TO REMAIN/REFORM S OF LONG ISLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT AS NEXT SIGNIFICANT MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES
NEWD AROUND THE WRN VA UPR LOW TOWARD NJ/DELMARVA.

WARM SECTOR ACROSS SE MA IS CHARACTERIZED BY LWR-MID 60S SFC DEW
POINTS AND WITH MODEST INSOLATION /CLOUDS THINNING FROM S-N/ THIS
AFTN...MLCAPES MAY APPROACH 750 J/KG. TOPS OF ANY CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS THAT MAY FORM NEAR THE FRONT MAY REACH INTO THE ICING LAYER
/HEIGHT OF MINUS 20 DEG C LEVEL/ AND ISOLD TSTMS COULD OCCUR
MID-LATE THIS AFTN. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
APPRECIABLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY OBSERVED /AOB 70 M2/S2 0-1KM
SRH/ AND ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WOULD ARGUE
AGAINST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVE. THUS...THE TWO
PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY HAS BEEN REMOVED.

BANDS OF CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT OVER
ERN MA NWWD INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE APPROACHING COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WITH
CONCOMITANT INCREASE IN SELY LOW/MID-LVL FLOW/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY ELEVATED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

..RACY/COHEN.. 10/01/2011

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KILM [011347]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KILM 011347
LSRILM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
946 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N BOLTON 34.34N 78.41W
09/30/2011 COLUMBUS NC PUBLIC

ROOF TORN OFF STORAGE SHED. PLYWOOD PANEL RIPPED OFF
ADJACENT SMALL BUILDING. LARGE LIMB BROKEN OUT OF PECAN
TREE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ILM1100552

$$

TRA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011207
SWODY1
SPC AC 011205

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0705 AM CDT SAT OCT 01 2011

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...
A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER WV WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS ROTATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW. THE PRIMARY SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CAPE COD TO A LOW JUST SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND...THEN SOUTHWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A CONSENSUS OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH ONLY A SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS TOWARD
COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
SUPERCELL STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
OFF THE RI/MA COAST...AND OTHERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. IT STILL
APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE WITH
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND THE ASSOCIATED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
VERY LOW OVER SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELDS AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT LEAVES SOME CONCERN FOR
A BRIEF TORNADO WITH THOSE STORMS THAT INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY.
THE PRIMARY FORCING SHOULD LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION BY THIS
EVENING...ENDING ANY SEVERE THREAT.

..HART/DEAN.. 10/01/2011

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