DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 PM CDT FRI NOV 05 2010
VALID 060100Z - 061200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..DIAL.. 11/06/2010
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
429 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0345 PM HAIL NEWBERRY 34.28N 81.61W
11/05/2010 E0.25 INCH NEWBERRY SC BROADCAST MEDIA
EMPLOYEE AT RADIO STATION IN NEWBERRY REPORTED GRAUPEL OR
SMALL HAIL AT 345 PM.
0400 PM HAIL 4 WNW IRMO 34.11N 81.26W
11/05/2010 E0.25 INCH RICHLAND SC NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL IN BALLENTINE
AT 4 PM.
0415 PM HAIL IRMO 34.09N 81.19W
11/05/2010 E0.25 INCH RICHLAND SC NWS EMPLOYEE
NWS EMPLOYEE IN IRMO REPORTED GRAUPEL OR SMALL HAIL AT
415 PM.
&&
$$
TTH
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
402 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0950 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG CALAIS 45.19N 67.28W
11/05/2010 WASHINGTON ME EMERGENCY MNGR
NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES.
0930 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG PERRY 44.97N 67.08W
11/05/2010 WASHINGTON ME EMERGENCY MNGR
POWER LINES DOWN.
0930 AM FLOOD LAMOINE 44.45N 68.29W
11/05/2010 HANCOCK ME EMERGENCY MNGR
WATER WASHED OVER ROADWAY ON MUD CREEK ROAD. A CAR IS IN
THE WATER.
0930 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG HARRINGTON 44.62N 67.81W
11/05/2010 WASHINGTON ME EMERGENCY MNGR
TREES DOWN ON ROCK MAPLE ROAD...DORMAN ROAD...AND EAST
MAIN STREET.
0930 AM FLOOD MACHIAS 44.72N 67.46W
11/05/2010 WASHINGTON ME EMERGENCY MNGR
WATER OVER PORTIONS OF ROUTE 1. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
REPORTED.
0920 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG CHARLOTTE 45.02N 67.25W
11/05/2010 WASHINGTON ME EMERGENCY MNGR
TREE DOWN ON CHARLOTTE ROAD.
0815 AM FLOOD WALTHAM 44.71N 68.34W
11/05/2010 HANCOCK ME EMERGENCY MNGR
WALTHAM ROAD WASHED OVER.
0800 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG BAR HARBOR 44.39N 68.20W
11/05/2010 HANCOCK ME EMERGENCY MNGR
TREE DOWN NEAR PARK LOOP ROAD EXIT.
&&
$$
DOODY
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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT FRI NOV 05 2010
VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS PIEDMONT...
NO CHANGES TO PRIOR OUTLOOK. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE MAINLY THROUGH SUNSET AMID ONGOING SCATTERED
CELLULAR/SHOWERY CONVECTION.
..GUYER.. 11/05/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT FRI NOV 05 2010/
...PORTIONS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT...
DESPITE MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PRESENCE OF COLD MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES /-30 DEG C AT 500 MB/ ALONG WITH CONTINUED SURFACE
HEATING WILL MAINTAIN STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY VORT
MAXIMA ROTATING WITHIN LARGER-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...SETUP
SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN TO YIELD CHARGE SEPARATION FOR TSTMS...BUT
OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SPARSE.
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
136 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0131 PM SNOW PORT HOPE 43.94N 82.72W
11/05/2010 M2.5 INCH HURON MI PUBLIC
REPORT CAME FROM AN INLAND SITE AS LOCATIONS ALONG THE
WARM LAKE SHORE REPORTING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.
&&
$$
DKOOK
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
129 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0120 PM SNOW 6 SE GATLINBURG 35.66N 83.42W
11/05/2010 M6.0 INCH SEVIER TN OFFICIAL NWS OBS
LECONTE LODGE
&&
$$
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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT FRI NOV 05 2010
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
THE LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN WILL TREND LESS AMPLIFIED INTO
SATURDAY...WITH CYCLONIC/SPLIT UPPER FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
INTO THE WESTERN STATES...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ADVANCING SOUTHERN
STREAM UPPER LOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA.
THE CONUS-WIDE PREVALENCE OF COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY
PRECLUDE TSTM POTENTIAL. SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA AND OFFSHORE WATERS ATTENDANT TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE...AND/OR ACROSS THE
COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST VIA AN INLAND ADVANCING FRONT.
HOWEVER...NEITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS APPEAR TO CURRENTLY WARRANT 10
PERCENT TSTM PROBABILITIES.
..GUYER.. 11/05/2010
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1249 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1225 PM SNOW LAKE ANN 44.73N 85.84W
11/05/2010 M1.4 INCH BENZIE MI TRAINED SPOTTER
12 HR TOTAL THRU NOON.
&&
$$
ASULLIVA
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1247 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1225 PM SNOW MANTON 44.41N 85.40W
11/05/2010 E2.0 INCH WEXFORD MI BROADCAST MEDIA
12 HR TOTAL THRU NOON.
&&
$$
ASULLIVA
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1246 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1225 PM SNOW LAKE ANN 44.73N 85.84W
11/05/2010 E3.0 INCH BENZIE MI BROADCAST MEDIA
12 HR TOTAL THRU NOON.
&&
$$
ASULLIVA
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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT FRI NOV 05 2010
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...PORTIONS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT...
DESPITE MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...PRESENCE OF COLD MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES /-30 DEG C AT 500 MB/ ALONG WITH CONTINUED SURFACE
HEATING WILL MAINTAIN STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY VORT
MAXIMA ROTATING WITHIN LARGER-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...SETUP
SHOULD PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN TO YIELD CHARGE SEPARATION FOR TSTMS...BUT
OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN SPARSE.
..GRAMS/HALES.. 11/05/2010
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1050 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1030 AM SNOW 3 N DIGHTON 44.14N 85.34W
11/05/2010 E0.8 INCH OSCEOLA MI BROADCAST MEDIA
WWTV TV9/10 NEAR TUSTIN REPORTED 3/4 OF AN INCH OF SNOW
ON THE GROUND AS OF 1030 AM THIS MORNING.
&&
$$
BMARINO
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1013 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0815 AM FLOOD WALTHAM 44.71N 68.34W
11/05/2010 HANCOCK ME EMERGENCY MNGR
WALTHAM ROAD WASHED OVER.
0920 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG CHARLOTTE 45.02N 67.25W
11/05/2010 WASHINGTON ME EMERGENCY MNGR
TREE DOWN ON CHARLOTTE ROAD.
0930 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG PERRY 44.97N 67.08W
11/05/2010 WASHINGTON ME EMERGENCY MNGR
POWER LINES DOWN.
0930 AM FLOOD LAMOINE 44.45N 68.29W
11/05/2010 HANCOCK ME EMERGENCY MNGR
WATER WASHED OVER ROADWAY ON MUD CREEK ROAD. A CAR IS IN
THE WATER.
0930 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG HARRINGTON 44.62N 67.81W
11/05/2010 WASHINGTON ME EMERGENCY MNGR
TREES DOWN ON ROCK MAPLE ROAD...DORMAN ROAD...AND EAST
MAIN STREET.
0930 AM FLOOD MACHIAS 44.72N 67.46W
11/05/2010 WASHINGTON ME EMERGENCY MNGR
WATER OVER PORTIONS OF ROUTE 1. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
REPORTED.
0950 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG CALAIS 45.19N 67.28W
11/05/2010 WASHINGTON ME EMERGENCY MNGR
NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES.
&&
$$
DOODY
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
915 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0831 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
11/05/2010 M43 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION
A WIND GUST OF 37 KNOTS...OR 43 MPH...WAS REPORTED BY THE
C-MAN STATION AT SAND KEY LIGHT. THIS WIND GUST WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
$$
WHOVORKA
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
856 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
11/05/2010 CHARLESTON SC OFFICIAL NWS OBS
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAUGE REACHED A PEAK TIDE
LEVEL OF 7.05 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING BEGINS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WHEN
TIDES REACH 7.0 FEET AT THIS LOCATION.
&&
$$
RPA
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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT FRI NOV 05 2010
VALID 051300Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT OVER THE LWR 48 AS
TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A DEEP LOW OVER THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND
UPSTREAM RIDGE SLOWLY PROGRESSES FROM THE GRT BASIN TO THE RCKYS.
AT THE SFC...AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EDGES E FROM THE
PLNS INTO THE MS VLY/WRN GULF OF MEXICO..
...SRN APPALACHIANS/ADJACENT PIEDMONT...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER OVER THE SERN STATES TODAY AS A
RESULT OF SFC RIDGING/LOW LVL DRY AIR ADVECTION. BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
/-30 DEG C AT 500 MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING UPR
CIRCULATION...AND SFC HEATING...WILL STEEPEN LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE
RATES OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS. COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND
FORCING FOR ASCENT PROVIDED BY VORT MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND LARGER
SCALE TROUGH...SETUP WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD AFTN
CONVECTION. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN TO YIELD CHARGE SEPARATION/THUNDER.
NEVERTHELESS...LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SUGGESTS THAT STORM
COVERAGE LIKELY WILL REMAIN RATHER SPARSE.
..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 11/05/2010
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
835 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0758 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 ENE FORT JEFFERSON AT 24.69N 82.77W
11/05/2010 M41 MPH GMZ075 XX C-MAN STATION
A WIND GUST OF 36 KNOTS...OR 41 MPH...WAS REPORTED BY THE
C-MAN STATION AT PULASKY SHOAL LIGHT. THIS WIND GUST WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
$$
WHOVORKA
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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
752 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM SNOW 1 N NEWBERRY 46.37N 85.51W
11/05/2010 M2.1 INCH LUCE MI CO-OP OBSERVER
LIQUID EQUIVALENT 0.23 INCHES. 24 HOUR REPORT.
&&
$$
JMWIX
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DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT FRI NOV 05 2010
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...PERHAPS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY AGAIN...A
BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF
AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS WITHIN A STRONG BELT OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE MID LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE U.S. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IF THIS OCCURS...POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE SUPPORTIVE
OF A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...WITH AT LEAST THE
SECOND/SOUTHERN SYSTEM...IF NOT THE LEAD/NORTHERN SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES
CONCERNING THESE DEVELOPMENTS IS RATHER LARGE AT THE OUTSET OF THE
PERIOD...AND GROWS CONSIDERABLY...RESULTING IN TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO CONFIDENTLY DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION OF THE GREATEST
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
..KERR.. 11/05/2010
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DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 AM CDT FRI NOV 05 2010
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE SOME AMPLIFICATION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WESTERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF A BROADER SCALE TROUGH ADVANCING INLAND ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COAST IS PROGGED TO DIG ACROSS PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND THE
GREAT BASIN BY 12Z MONDAY. VARIABILITY AMONG THE GUIDANCE IS
CONSIDERABLE...BUT THIS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ENHANCED FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES ...THE
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND SHASTA/SISKIYOU REGION...AND THE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL COOLING ACROSS THIS REGION...AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.
EAST OF THE ROCKIES...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT INLAND MOISTURE
RETURN OFF A SLOWLY MODIFYING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
MAY COMMENCE ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST...WITH LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
..KERR.. 11/05/2010
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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT THU NOV 04 2010
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH...NOW JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...IS PROGGED TO
BEGIN LIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY...BUT SURFACE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROMINENT FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST
EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RETURN FLOW OFF THE SLOWLY MODIFYING
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AND DRY...STABLE CONDITIONS
SHOULD RESULT IN NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EAST OF THE
ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A WEAKENING UPPER CLOSED LOW
WILL ACCELERATE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AHEAD OF A MORE
SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH ADVANCING TOWARD THE PACIFIC
COAST. CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY STILL EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS
CONCERNING THIS FEATURE...AND THERE ARE AT LEAST SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY
NEGLIGIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES BETWEEN SAN
FRANSISCO BAY AND THE LOS ANGELES BASIN. HOWEVER...WITH MOST MODELS
SUGGESTING A SOMEWHAT MODEST MID-LEVEL COLD CORE /500 MB TEMPS
AROUND -18 TO -20C/...PROBABILITIES DO NOT SEEM LIKELY TO MEET THE
10 PERCENT MINIMUM THRESHOLD REQUIRED FOR A CATEGORICAL GENERAL
THUNDER OUTLOOK AT THE PRESENT TIME.
..KERR.. 11/05/2010
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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT THU NOV 04 2010
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE REGIME WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. AND
RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL CHARACTERIZE THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FRIDAY. AT
THE SURFACE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL STATES WILL
MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS.
...SRN APPALACHIANS AREA...
DESPITE MEAGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING FROM OFFSHORE
FLOW...COLD AIR ALOFT WITH -30C AT 500 MB ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER
TROUGH AND DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
A RESERVOIR OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AREA. UPSLOPE FLOW AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME
OF THIS CONVECTION MAY EXTEND THROUGH LAYERS WHERE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR CHARGE SEPARATION. GIVEN THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AOB 10%.
..DIAL/GARNER.. 11/05/2010
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