KLIX [141915]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 141915
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
214 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0214 PM HAIL NEW SARPY 29.98N 90.39W
05/14/2007 E0.50 INCH ST. CHARLES LA EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

RRICKS

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KLIX [141914]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 141914
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
214 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0211 PM HAIL HOUMA 29.58N 90.71W
05/14/2007 E0.75 INCH TERREBONNE LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

0211 PM TSTM WND DMG HOUMA 29.58N 90.71W
05/14/2007 TERREBONNE LA EMERGENCY MNGR

TREE DOWN ON HIGHWAY AND PRELIMINARY REPORT OF TREE DOWN
ON HOUSE.

0211 PM FLASH FLOOD HOUMA 29.58N 90.71W
05/14/2007 TERREBONNE LA EMERGENCY MNGR

STREETS FLOODING IN HOUMA.

&&

$$

RRICKS

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KLCH [141902]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 141902
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
202 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0201 PM HAIL STEPHENSVILLE 29.78N 91.17W
05/14/2007 M0.75 INCH ST. MARTIN LA PUBLIC

&&

$$

MOGGED

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KMQT [141902]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 141902
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
301 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM HAIL HARVEY 46.49N 87.35W
05/14/2007 E0.88 INCH MARQUETTE MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

TRH

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KMQT [141851]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 141851
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
251 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0249 PM HAIL 2 E SHOT POINT 46.51N 87.12W
05/14/2007 E0.75 INCH LSZ246 MI PUBLIC

&&

$$

TRH

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KMQT [141846]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 141846
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
246 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM HAIL 1 SE NEGAUNEE 46.49N 87.58W
05/14/2007 E3.00 INCH MARQUETTE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

MOSTLY HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF HAIL...BUT A FEW
HAILSTONES WERE 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND SHATTERED CAR
WINDOWS.

&&

$$

TRH

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KLIX [141838]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 141838
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
138 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0137 PM HAIL HOUMA 29.58N 90.71W
05/14/2007 E0.50 INCH TERREBONNE LA EMERGENCY MNGR

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALSO. KLIX 88D VIL 61 KG/M2 THIS CELL.

&&

$$

RRICKS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0791

ACUS11 KWNS 141836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141836
LAZ000-TXZ000-142000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0791
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA...SE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 141836Z - 142000Z

A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS STORMS
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS SRN LA AND SE TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED FOR WW ISSUANCE THIS
AFTERNOON.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS FROM THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDING NNWWD INTO EAST TX. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE MOIST AXIS ARE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F WITH LOWER 70 F DEWPOINTS LOCATED ACROSS
SE LA. IN ADDITION...A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IS MOVING SLOWLY NWD
ACROSS SRN LA AND FAR SE TX AND THE AIRMASS IS UNCAPPED AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INITIATE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES...THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE SUGGESTS A FEW
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE 12Z LAKE CHARLES
SOUNDING SHOWS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB
SUGGESTING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS. ALSO...RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO 8.5
C/KM IN MUCH OF THE MCD AREA SUGGESTING STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.BROYLES.. 05/14/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

29289031 29389275 30219522 30919603 31629556 31219431
30629266 30229039

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KMQT [141814]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 141814
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
214 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0212 PM HAIL NEGAUNEE 46.50N 87.60W
05/14/2007 E0.88 INCH MARQUETTE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

TRH

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KMQT [141812]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 141812
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
212 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0209 PM HAIL NATIONAL MINE 46.45N 87.68W
05/14/2007 M1.25 INCH MARQUETTE MI NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

TRH

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KMQT [141810]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 141810
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
210 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HAIL ISHPEMING 46.49N 87.66W
05/14/2007 E1.25 INCH MARQUETTE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0208 PM HAIL NEGAUNEE 46.50N 87.60W
05/14/2007 E0.88 INCH MARQUETTE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

TRH

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KMQT [141806]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 141806
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
206 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0206 PM HAIL ISHPEMING 46.49N 87.66W
05/14/2007 E1.00 INCH MARQUETTE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

TRH

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KMQT [141804]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 141804
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
204 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0203 PM HAIL ISHPEMING 46.49N 87.66W
05/14/2007 M1.25 INCH MARQUETTE MI NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

TRH

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KMQT [141758]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 141758
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
158 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0155 PM HAIL 1 WSW ISHPEMING 46.48N 87.68W
05/14/2007 M0.75 INCH MARQUETTE MI NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

TRH

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KBYZ [141728]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KBYZ 141728
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1127 AM MDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0312 PM HAIL 4 ESE LIVINGSTON 45.65N 110.48W
05/13/2007 M1.00 INCH PARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING ROAD.

0315 PM HAIL 1 ESE WILSALL 45.99N 110.64W
05/13/2007 M1.00 INCH PARK MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0354 PM HAIL 3 W BIG TIMBER 45.83N 110.02W
05/13/2007 M1.00 INCH SWEET GRASS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0356 PM HAIL 6 NNW BIG TIMBER 45.92N 109.99W
05/13/2007 M0.88 INCH SWEET GRASS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL IS SOFT WITH HEAVY RAIN. LIGHT WIND.

0400 PM HAIL N BIG TIMBER 45.84N 109.95W
05/13/2007 M0.88 INCH SWEET GRASS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0407 PM HAIL 10 SSW GREYCLIFF 45.64N 109.89W
05/13/2007 M1.00 INCH SWEET GRASS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0409 PM HAIL N BIG TIMBER 45.84N 109.95W
05/13/2007 M0.75 INCH SWEET GRASS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

FROM EMERGENCY MANAGERS FAMILY.

0410 PM HAIL 10 SSW GREYCLIFF 45.64N 109.89W
05/13/2007 M1.00 INCH SWEET GRASS MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

0412 PM HAIL 11 NNW SPRINGDALE 45.89N 110.28W
05/13/2007 M1.25 INCH SWEET GRASS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

HAILING HEAVILY.

0450 PM HAIL 5 SW REED POINT 45.65N 109.63W
05/13/2007 M1.00 INCH SWEET GRASS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0505 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SSE RAPELJE 45.91N 109.25W
05/13/2007 M76.00 MPH STILLWATER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0505 PM HAIL 12 NE GREYCLIFF 45.91N 109.63W
05/13/2007 M1.00 INCH SWEET GRASS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0510 PM HAIL 5 N REED POINT 45.77N 109.55W
05/13/2007 M0.88 INCH STILLWATER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0520 PM HAIL 4 ESE MOLT 45.85N 108.86W
05/13/2007 M1.00 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0530 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SSE RAPELJE 45.91N 109.25W
05/13/2007 M76.00 MPH STILLWATER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS WINDOWS OUT IN RAPELJE FROM HAIL AND WINDS.

0530 PM HAIL 4 SSE RAPELJE 45.91N 109.25W
05/13/2007 M1.75 INCH STILLWATER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS WINDOWS OUT IN RAPELJE FROM HAIL AND WINDS.

0536 PM HAIL 7 NNE MOLT 45.95N 108.87W
05/13/2007 M1.25 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ANYWHERE FROM PEA SIZE TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

0541 PM HAIL 6 ESE MOLT 45.84N 108.82W
05/13/2007 M1.75 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

LOTS OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND A FEW GOLFBALL SIZE.

0545 PM HAIL 2 W LAUREL 45.67N 108.82W
05/13/2007 M1.75 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH.

0555 PM HAIL 1 ENE PARK CITY 45.64N 108.90W
05/13/2007 M1.75 INCH STILLWATER MT AMATEUR RADIO

0559 PM HAIL 2 SW BALLANTINE 45.93N 108.17W
05/13/2007 M0.88 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0604 PM HAIL 2 SW BALLANTINE 45.93N 108.17W
05/13/2007 M1.75 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0610 PM TSTM WND GST 2 WSW WORDEN 45.95N 108.21W
05/13/2007 M70.00 MPH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0610 PM HAIL 2 WSW WORDEN 45.95N 108.21W
05/13/2007 M0.88 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0611 PM HAIL 5 NNE SHEPHERD 46.00N 108.31W
05/13/2007 M1.25 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO AT THE FEEDLOT STEAKHOUSE.

0615 PM HAIL 1 N WORDEN 45.96N 108.16W
05/13/2007 M1.00 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT AMATEUR RADIO

0615 PM HAIL NE WORDEN 45.97N 108.16W
05/13/2007 M1.75 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

POPLAR TREES 2-3 FEET DIAMETER SNAPPED IN HALF A COUPLE
FEET OFF THE GROUND. ALSO HAD SHINGLES RIPPED OFF HOME.

0615 PM TSTM WND GST NE WORDEN 45.97N 108.16W
05/13/2007 M70.00 MPH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

POPLAR TREES 2-3 FEET DIAMETER SNAPPED IN HALF A COUPLE
FEET OFF THE GROUND. ALSO HAD SHINGLES RIPPED OFF HOME.

0618 PM HAIL 5 NNE SHEPHERD 46.00N 108.31W
05/13/2007 M1.75 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL.

0619 PM TSTM WND GST 17 N POMPEYS PILLAR 46.25N 107.95W
05/13/2007 M73.00 MPH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

FEW SHINGLES OFF...TIN RIPPED OFF BUILDING.

0621 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N BALLANTINE 45.96N 108.14W
05/13/2007 M70.00 MPH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0621 PM HAIL 1 N BALLANTINE 45.96N 108.14W
05/13/2007 M1.00 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0623 PM HAIL 2 WSW POMPEYS PILLAR 45.99N 108.00W
05/13/2007 M0.50 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0623 PM TSTM WND GST 2 WSW POMPEYS PILLAR 45.99N 108.00W
05/13/2007 M70.00 MPH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0623 PM HAIL 3 SSW BILLINGS 45.75N 108.57W
05/13/2007 M0.75 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0642 PM HAIL 4 NE BILLINGS 45.84N 108.49W
05/13/2007 M0.88 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0650 PM HAIL 11 NNW CUSTER 46.29N 107.61W
05/13/2007 M0.88 INCH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0655 PM TSTM WND GST 3 ESE POMPEYS PILLAR 45.99N 107.89W
05/13/2007 M70.00 MPH YELLOWSTONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS BROKEN OFF 12 FT DIAMETER COTTONWOOD
TREES. LOST POORTIONS OF TIN ROOF ON BUILDINGS ON
PROPERTY.

0655 PM HAIL 15 S DELPHIA 46.29N 108.16W
05/13/2007 M1.50 INCH MUSSELSHELL MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS BROKEN OFF 12 FT DIAMETER COTTONWOOD
TREES. LOST PORTIONS OF TIN ROOF ON BUILDINGS ON
PROPERTY.

0657 PM HAIL N HARDIN 45.73N 107.61W
05/13/2007 M1.00 INCH BIG HORN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 PM TSTM WND GST 8 ESE BILLINGS 45.73N 108.40W
05/13/2007 M64.00 MPH YELLOWSTONE MT MESONET

0700 PM HAIL 1 N HARDIN 45.75N 107.61W
05/13/2007 M0.88 INCH BIG HORN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0710 PM HAIL 8 N HARDIN 45.85N 107.61W
05/13/2007 M1.00 INCH BIG HORN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0712 PM TSTM WND GST N HYSHAM 46.29N 107.23W
05/13/2007 M58.00 MPH TREASURE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0712 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NNW FORSYTH 46.34N 106.70W
05/13/2007 M60.00 MPH ROSEBUD MT TRAINED SPOTTER

WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH 40 MPH SUSTAINED.

0720 PM HAIL 1 NNE ROSEBUD 46.28N 106.44W
05/13/2007 M0.75 INCH ROSEBUD MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0726 PM TSTM WND GST 7 SW SHERIDAN 44.72N 107.07W
05/13/2007 M62.00 MPH SHERIDAN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0731 PM HAIL HATHAWAY 46.27N 106.20W
05/13/2007 M1.75 INCH ROSEBUD MT PUBLIC

0737 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N SHERIDAN 44.78N 106.98W
05/13/2007 M63.00 MPH SHERIDAN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0743 PM TSTM WND GST 7 ENE COLSTRIP 45.93N 106.49W
05/13/2007 M60.00 MPH ROSEBUD MT TRAINED SPOTTER

FROM RADIO STATION IN FORSYTH.

0743 PM HAIL 7 ENE COLSTRIP 45.93N 106.49W
05/13/2007 M0.88 INCH ROSEBUD MT TRAINED SPOTTER

FROM RADIO STATION IN FORSYTH.

0748 PM TSTM WND GST FORSYTH 46.27N 106.68W
05/13/2007 E70.00 MPH ROSEBUD MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SHINGLES FLYING OFF HOUSES BRANCHES DOWN.

0750 PM HAIL 23 NE VANANDA 46.62N 106.67W
05/13/2007 M1.25 INCH ROSEBUD MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 PM TSTM WND GST NE FORSYTH 46.27N 106.67W
05/13/2007 M70.00 MPH ROSEBUD MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SHED BLOWN INTO HOUSE. FULLY MATURE TREES BEING BLOWN
DOWN FLAT.

0811 PM TSTM WND GST N RANCHESTER 44.91N 107.16W
05/13/2007 M65.00 MPH SHERIDAN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

BREAKING TREE BRANCHES.

0812 PM TSTM WND GST 15 WSW ANGELA 46.65N 106.50W
05/13/2007 M64.00 MPH ROSEBUD MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0816 PM TSTM WND GST 2 W SHERIDAN 44.79N 107.00W
05/13/2007 M60.00 MPH SHERIDAN WY TRAINED SPOTTER

0832 PM TSTM WND GST 7 ENE COLSTRIP 45.93N 106.49W
05/13/2007 E70.00 MPH ROSEBUD MT TRAINED SPOTTER

PUBLIC REPORT ESTIMATING WINDS OF 70-80 MPH.

0836 PM HAIL 9 SSE MILES CITY 46.29N 105.76W
05/13/2007 M1.00 INCH CUSTER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0900 PM TSTM WND GST MILES CITY 46.41N 105.84W
05/13/2007 M65.00 MPH CUSTER MT TRAINED SPOTTER

MILES CITY ASOS

0900 PM TSTM WND GST MILES CITY 46.41N 105.84W
05/13/2007 M76.00 MPH CUSTER MT ASOS

MILES CITY ASOS.

0935 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N MILES CITY 46.40N 105.83W
05/13/2007 M65.00 MPH CUSTER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

EKALAKA DOT SITE.

0937 PM HAIL N BAKER 46.36N 104.28W
05/13/2007 M0.88 INCH FALLON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0940 PM FLASH FLOOD FORSYTH 46.27N 106.68W
05/13/2007 ROSEBUD MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER IN BROADUS HEARD REPORT OF FLASH FLOODING OVER
POLICE SCANNER ON INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN MILES CITY AND
FORSYTH.

0956 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N BAKER 46.37N 104.28W
05/13/2007 M65.00 MPH FALLON MT ASOS

BAKER ASOS.

1000 PM TSTM WND DMG 18 WSW WILLARD 46.14N 104.74W
05/13/2007 FALLON MT CO-OP OBSERVER

MOVED BUILDINGS APPROXIMATELY 500 YARDS FROM ORIGINAL
LOCATION...TREES DOWN...SHINGLES OFF PATIO ROOF...POWER
OUT.

1000 PM TSTM WND GST 9 SSW WILLARD 46.08N 104.44W
05/13/2007 M60.00 MPH FALLON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

1000 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NNW FORSYTH 46.34N 106.70W
05/13/2007 M60.00 MPH ROSEBUD MT TRAINED SPOTTER

1004 PM TSTM WND GST BAKER 46.36N 104.27W
05/13/2007 M75.00 MPH FALLON MT ASOS

BAKER ASOS.

1012 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N BAKER 46.37N 104.28W
05/13/2007 FALLON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

TREES DOWNED AND POWER OUTAGE.

1014 PM TSTM WND DMG 11 S BAKER 46.20N 104.24W
05/13/2007 FALLON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND TOWER KNOCKED OVER IN STORM. TREE DAMAGE.

1100 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 N BAKER 46.37N 104.28W
05/13/2007 FALLON MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

FALLON COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

1139 PM FLASH FLOOD FORSYTH 46.27N 106.68W
05/13/2007 ROSEBUD MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

FOOT OF WATER AT EXIT 93 ON INTERSTATE 94...TRAFFIC BEING
REROUTED.

&&

$$

SALLYS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 141722
SWODY2
SPC AC 141720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SWWD
INTO THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

..SYNOPIS...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NRN ROCKIES
..IS FORECAST TO DIVE SEWD AND AMPLIFY INTO A BROAD BASED TROUGH
FROM THE NRN/MID VS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY
REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD AHEAD OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL IN/MO INTO NWRN AR/NRN TX BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

..ERN GREAT LAKES/WRN NY SWWD THROUGH THE OH/MID MS VALLEYS...
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD
INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING
AS IT SHIFTS EWD. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY AS
HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADVECTION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...FROM THE
PLAINS STATES...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY WHERE THE
BEST COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
LOCATED. DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WINDS SUGGEST LINE
SEGMENTS/BOW-TYPE STRUCTURES COULD EVOLVE...WITH WIND DAMAGE THE
MOST LIKELY THREAT. FURTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS AR/MO...THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ONLY BE AROUND 20 KT...BUT MLCAPES UP TO 2500
J/KG INDICATE A THREAT FOR A FEW STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND SPOTTY WIND DAMAGE. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY...MOST OF THE SEVERE STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY 03-05Z.

..ERN NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
MODELS INDICATE AS SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT... MOVES
EWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS VARY ON DEGREE ON INSTABILITY ...THOUGH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
ALTHOUGH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MLCAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVE WARM LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND
700 MB. THIS WARMING AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS UNTIL LATE
IN THE PERIOD PRECLUDE MORE THAN A LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM.

..ERN NM/WRN TX...
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM SERN
NM INTO FAR WEST TX DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSES RATE AND A MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO 700 MB. THESE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES
AROUND 1000 J/KG WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED STORMS WITH HAIL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

..SRN FL PENINSULA...
ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...CONTINUED DEEP ELY WINDS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN STORMS TO MOVE WWD THROUGH THE SRN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL...ESPECIALLY WHERE SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS OCCUR.

.IMY.. 05/14/2007

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KABR [141655]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KABR 141655
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1154 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 AM FLASH FLOOD ABERDEEN 45.47N 98.48W
05/06/2007 BROWN SD EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES.

&&

$$

JAZ

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KABR [141648]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 141648
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1146 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM FLASH FLOOD BRITTON 45.79N 97.75W
05/05/2007 MARSHALL SD EMERGENCY MNGR

STREETS BEGINNING TO FLOOD.

0345 AM FLASH FLOOD BRITTON 45.79N 97.75W
05/06/2007 MARSHALL SD EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES.

0130 AM FLASH FLOOD CLARK 44.88N 97.73W
05/06/2007 CLARK SD EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS CLARK COUNTY.

0145 AM FLASH FLOOD WEBSTER 45.34N 97.52W
05/06/2007 DAY SD EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES.

0715 AM FLASH FLOOD CLARK 44.88N 97.73W
05/06/2007 CLARK SD EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES.

0730 AM FLASH FLOOD WEBSTER 45.34N 97.52W
05/06/2007 DAY SD EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES.

0915 AM FLASH FLOOD BRITTON 45.79N 97.75W
05/06/2007 MARSHALL SD EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES.

0115 AM FLASH FLOOD ABERDEEN 45.47N 98.48W
05/06/2007 BROWN SD EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES.

0215 AM FLASH FLOOD REDFIELD 44.87N 98.52W
05/06/2007 SPINK SD EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES.

0640 AM AVALANCHE ABERDEEN 45.47N 98.48W
05/06/2007 BROWN SD EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES.

0740 AM FLASH FLOOD REDFIELD 44.87N 98.52W
05/06/2007 SPINK SD EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES.

0250 AM FLASH FLOOD GANN VALLEY 44.03N 98.99W
05/06/2007 BUFFALO SD EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE COUNTY.

1220 AM FLASH FLOOD MILLER 44.52N 98.99W
05/06/2007 HAND SD EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES.

0715 AM FLASH FLOOD GANN VALLEY 44.03N 98.99W
05/06/2007 BUFFALO SD EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE COUNTY.

0445 AM FLASH FLOOD MILLER 44.52N 98.99W
05/06/2007 HAND SD EMERGENCY MNGR

FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES.

&&

$$

JAZ

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KBIS [141630]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 141630
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1130 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 AM TSTM WND GST RICHARDTON 46.88N 102.32W
05/14/2007 M77 MPH STARK ND CO-OP OBSERVER

2 1/2 FOOT DIAMETER ASH TREE 70 FEET TALL FELL ON HOUSE.

&&

$$

KBIRK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141629
SWODY1
SPC AC 141627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/WRN GREAT LAKES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN FL...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN LA INTO ERN TX...

..NRN MS RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE NRN/WRN GREAT LAKES...
MESSY SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION
AHEAD OF POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS WELL DEFINED THIS MORNING
TRAILING SWWD FROM LOW OVER NRN MN INTO SERN CO...WITH WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS FAR NRN WI AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION WHICH WILL HELP PUSH WARM FRONT NWD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MI U.P. THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK EWD INTO THE WRN U.P. OF MI BY LATER TODAY WITH SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH
NEAR-RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED INTO MUCH OF MN/WI/WRN U.P. OF MI. THIS
WILL HELP MIX THROUGH VERY STRONG CAPPING BENEATH PRONOUNCED EML
EVIDENT ON MORNING SOUNDINGS. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE ADVECTION
SHOULD SOMEWHAT OFFSET DRYING DUE TO DEEP MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN NEAR 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THUS...LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH MLCAPE EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG.

STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED STORMS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE
MORNING...WHICH MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL INTO THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS MAY ALSO BEGIN DEVELOPING
ACROSS SRN MN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BY THE MID AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
SHOULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED BY 21Z WITH INCREASED RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY
REMAIN HIGHER NEAR THE LOW CENTER OVER NRN WI AND WRN U.P. OF MI
WHERE SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. WIND
DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE
EVENING ACROSS WI AND NRN/WRN IA AS ACTIVITY EVOLVES INTO
LINES/CLUSTERS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS.

..CENTRAL PLAINS...
STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT
FROM ERN NEB INTO THE ERN CO/NWRN KS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE AND SHIFT SSEWD THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THOUGH FRONT WILL FOCUS AND SUSTAIN SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE MARGINAL FOR SUSTAINED
STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION /ESPECIALLY AS STORMS PROGRESS FARTHER
SSEWD AFTER DARK/. GIVEN EXPECTED MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

..CENTRAL/SRN FL...
LAPSE RATES REMAIN FAIRLY STEEP THIS MORNING AT TBW AND MFL WITH
CONSIDERABLY MORE MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY LESS LAPSE RATES THAN WERE
THE CASE YESTERDAY. DEEP ELY FLOW SHOULD MAXIMIZE CONVERGENCE INTO
W-CENTRAL/SWRN FL BY LATER TODAY...WHERE STORMS SHOULD BECOME QUITE
NUMEROUS. THOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY BE PULSE-TYPE OR AT BEST
MULTICELLULAR...COLD AIR ALOFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
SHOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..SERN TX ACROSS SRN LA...
12Z SOUNDING AT LCH INDICATES MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN QUITE
STEEP /H5 TEMPS AROUND -11C/ ATOP A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
SRN LA INTO PARTS OF ERN TX. IN ADDITION...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION WHICH WILL FOCUS SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY /MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG/ AND COLD MID LEVEL
AIR...LARGE HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CORES.
THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL BE PULSE IN NATURE GIVEN LACK OF
SHEAR...SURFACE TROUGH MAY FOCUS/CONCENTRATE ACTIVITY SUFFICIENT FOR
HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF LARGE HAIL AND CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK FOR
LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

.EVANS/GRAMS.. 05/14/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0790

ACUS11 KWNS 141628
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141627
FLZ000-141800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0790
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND SRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 141627Z - 141800Z

A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN FL EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER....THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR WW
ISSUANCE.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS ELY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
AND ACCORDING TO WSR-88D...A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE
MOVING INLAND ALONG THE ERN COAST OF FL. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SFC TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND. THE
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN FL SHOULD SFC-BASED
CAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG
UPDRAFTS. EVEN THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS GENERALLY BELOW 15 KT AS
SHOWN ON MORNING SOUNDINGS...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM IN
AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHICH MAY ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS
WITH PULSE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. IN ADDITION...LARGE HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT
APPROACHING -12 C ON 12Z SOUNDINGS.

.BROYLES.. 05/14/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

24998054 25128125 26708160 27668172 28148134 27768067
26758038 25978026

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KJAX [141625]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KJAX 141625
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1225 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1223 PM HIGH SURF FLAGLER BEACH 29.47N 81.13W
05/14/2007 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS SURF OF 6 TO 8 FEET WITH NO
BEACH CLOSURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

$$

DEESE

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KBIS [141621]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 141621
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1120 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0205 AM TSTM WND DMG CENTER 47.12N 101.30W
05/14/2007 OLIVER ND CO-OP OBSERVER

DAMAGE TO OBSERVERS CUTTERS AND SOFFIT WAS TORE OFF FROM
THEIR HOME

&&

$$

VJENSEN

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KRNK [141614]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KRNK 141614
LSRRNK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1214 PM EDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0724 PM TSTM WND DMG CLOVER 36.83N 78.73W
05/11/2007 HALIFAX VA LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES DOWN INTO POWER LINES

0830 PM TSTM WND DMG CLUSTER SPRINGS 36.62N 78.92W
05/11/2007 HALIFAX VA NEWSPAPER

SEVERAL TREES DOWN. ESTIMATED WIND GUST 60 MPH.

&&

$$

JJACKSON

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KTFX [141612]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 141612
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1012 AM MDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM HAIL 14 S CHESTER 48.31N 110.97W
05/12/2007 E0.88 INCH LIBERTY MT COUNTY OFFICIAL

OBSERVED BY COUNTY CLERK OFFICIAL ALONG SR 223.

&&

$$

DREILLY

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0789

ACUS11 KWNS 141602
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141601
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-141700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0789
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN WI...UP OF MI...FAR NE MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 141601Z - 141700Z

A THREAT FOR HAIL MAY DEVELOP ACROSS FAR NRN WI...FAR NE MN AND THE
UP OF MI LATE THIS MORNING. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED LATE
THIS MORNING BUT MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A WW
SHOULD BECOME LIKELY BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED LOW ABOUT 80 MILES EAST
OF FARGO ND WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD TO NEAR DULUTH AND INTO
THE WRN UP OF MI. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST TO THE NORTH OF BOUNDARY ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF A BROAD
LOW-LEVEL JET ORIENTED FROM WSW TO ENE FROM WI INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LIFT FROM THE LOW-LEVEL JET ALONG WITH MUCAPE VALUES ABOVE
2000 J/KG AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
ARE LIKELY HELPING THE STORMS BECOME ORGANIZED. IN
ADDITION...MORNING SOUNDINGS AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER OVER MN WHICH WILL LIKELY SPREAD SLOWLY EWD THIS AFTERNOON
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AS STORM
COVERAGE EXPANDS...A HAIL THREAT COULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ALONG THE WARM FRONT. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE-TROUGH EVIDENT
ON RUC ANALYSIS SHOULD INCREASE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE WRN
PART OF THE MCD AREA AND THUS A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO
DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE MCD AREA BY
MID-AFTERNOON.

.BROYLES.. 05/14/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...DLH...

46358532 46298809 46399081 46409235 46719238 47199238
47278839 47108550

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KJAN [141528]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 141528
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1028 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 PM HAIL 6 S SICILY ISLAND 31.76N 91.66W
05/11/2007 E1.00 INCH CATAHOULA LA PUBLIC

AT LEAST QUARTER SIZED HAIL SEVERELY DAMAGED A FEW ACRES
OF COTTON. THE PLANTS WERE STRIPPED OF THEIR LEAVES.

0608 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 S SICILY ISLAND 31.75N 91.66W
05/11/2007 CATAHOULA LA PUBLIC

A MICROBURST DOWNED DOZENS OF ACRES OF CORN. THE CORN
FIELDS WERE LAID FLAT TO THE GROUND.

&&

$$

CME

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KUNR [141511]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 141511
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
910 AM MDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 PM TSTM WND GST 16 N HULETT 44.91N 104.60W
05/13/2007 E60.00 MPH CROOK WY TRAINED SPOTTER

UNBELIEVABLY STRONG WINDS, TRAILER HOUSE ROCKING ON
SUPPORTS. LASTED 30 MINUTES

&&

$$

MERICKSO

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KFSD [141510]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KFSD 141510
LSRFSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1010 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0947 AM HAIL CURRIE 44.07N 95.67W
05/14/2007 M0.25 INCH MURRAY MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CJANSEN

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KABR [141326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 141326
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
826 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 AM TSTM WND GST 2 SE RICHMOND LAKE REC 45.52N 98.58W
05/06/2007 E65.00 MPH BROWN SD NWS STORM SURVEY

TREE DAMAGE AND BUILDING DAMAGE TO FARM.

&&

$$

HARDING

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KABR [141321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 141321
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
820 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM TSTM WND GST 3 N ASHTON 45.04N 98.50W
05/05/2007 E60 MPH SPINK SD NWS STORM SURVEY

SEVERAL SMALL BUILDINGS DESTROYED.

&&

$$

HARDING

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KBIS [141319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KBIS 141319
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
819 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1210 AM TSTM WND GST 7 E MEDORA 46.91N 103.38W
05/14/2007 E70.00 MPH BILLINGS ND PUBLIC

60 TO 70 MPH GUST WITH HALF INCH HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

1224 AM TSTM WND GST HETTINGER 46.00N 102.63W
05/14/2007 M60.00 MPH ADAMS ND OFFICIAL NWS OBS

1227 AM TSTM WND GST DICKINSON 46.89N 102.78W
05/14/2007 M71.00 MPH STARK ND OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0130 AM TSTM WND GST CARSON 46.42N 101.57W
05/14/2007 E65.00 MPH GRANT ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT ESTIMATED WINDS OF 55 TO 65 MPH.

0216 AM NON-TSTM WND GST DICKINSON 46.89N 102.78W
05/14/2007 M63.00 MPH STARK ND OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0218 AM TSTM WND GST BISMARCK 46.81N 100.77W
05/14/2007 M63.00 MPH BURLEIGH ND OFFICIAL NWS OBS

0408 AM TSTM WND GST JAMESTOWN 46.91N 98.70W
05/14/2007 M58.00 MPH STUTSMAN ND OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

$$

SWICHE

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KGGW [141308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 141308
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
359 AM MDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0430 PM HAIL 3 E VANDALIA 48.35N 106.85W
05/13/2007 E0.75 INCH VALLEY MT TRAINED SPOTTER

3/4 INCH HAIL WITH PEA SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

0435 PM TSTM WND GST 10 NW GLASGOW 48.30N 106.79W
05/13/2007 E60 MPH VALLEY MT PUBLIC

ESTIMATED 60 MPH WIND, WITH 1/2 INCH HAIL COVERING THE
GROUND. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 1.00 INCH

0550 PM HAIL 27 NW WOLF POINT 48.37N 106.06W
05/13/2007 E2.00 INCH VALLEY MT PUBLIC

1-2 INCH HAIL, WHICH BROKE A GARAGE WINDOW

0744 PM HAIL 18 SW BROCKWAY 47.11N 106.03W
05/13/2007 E1.00 INCH PRAIRIE MT PUBLIC

PEA SIZE HAIL INCREASED TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND LASTED
10 MINUTES.

0750 PM HAIL 6 W BROCKWAY 47.30N 105.89W
05/13/2007 E0.75 INCH MCCONE MT PUBLIC

3/4 INCH HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

0803 PM HAIL 10 ESE CIRCLE 47.37N 105.40W
05/13/2007 E1.75 INCH DAWSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL FOLLOWED BY NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

0800 PM HAIL 14 SSW LINDSAY 47.03N 105.23W
05/13/2007 E1.50 INCH DAWSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

1-1 1/2 INCH HAIL WITH POSSIBLE ROOF DAMAGE.

0800 PM TSTM WND GST 6 SE COHAGEN 46.99N 106.52W
05/13/2007 E60 MPH GARFIELD MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0830 PM HAIL 21 NNW TERRY 47.07N 105.48W
05/13/2007 E1.00 INCH PRAIRIE MT PUBLIC

0830 PM HAIL 5 S LINDSAY 47.15N 105.15W
05/13/2007 E1.25 INCH DAWSON MT PUBLIC

0715 PM HAIL 8 WNW NELSON CRK REC AR 47.59N 106.39W
05/13/2007 E1.00 INCH GARFIELD MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0830 PM TSTM WND GST 2 W BLOOMFIELD 47.41N 104.96W
05/13/2007 M69 MPH DAWSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0850 PM TSTM WND GST 4 NNE BLOOMFIELD 47.47N 104.90W
05/13/2007 E60 MPH DAWSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0904 PM TSTM WND GST GLENDIVE 47.11N 104.71W
05/13/2007 M74 MPH DAWSON MT AWOS

0905 PM HAIL 1 NW GLENDIVE 47.12N 104.73W
05/13/2007 E1.00 INCH DAWSON MT PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZE HAIL MIXED IN WITH DIME SIZE HAIL.

0715 PM HAIL 2 N DUCK CRK FISHING AC 48.02N 106.53W
05/13/2007 E0.88 INCH VALLEY MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0910 PM HAIL N GLENDIVE 47.10N 104.71W
05/13/2007 E0.75 INCH DAWSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

0912 PM TSTM WND GST TERRY 46.79N 105.31W
05/13/2007 E65 MPH PRAIRIE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0914 PM HAIL GLENDIVE 47.11N 104.71W
05/13/2007 E1.00 INCH DAWSON MT EMERGENCY MNGR

HAIL LASTED ABOUT 10 MINUTES

0915 PM TSTM WND GST GLENDIVE 47.11N 104.71W
05/13/2007 E60 MPH DAWSON MT PUBLIC

0920 PM TSTM WND GST N TERRY 46.79N 105.31W
05/13/2007 E60 MPH PRAIRIE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0925 PM HAIL 2 S CIRCLE 47.39N 105.60W
05/13/2007 M2.00 INCH MCCONE MT PUBLIC

GROUND COVERED IN HAIL.

0910 PM HAIL 25 NE TERRY 47.05N 104.94W
05/13/2007 E1.75 INCH DAWSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

WITNESSED GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WHILE DRIVING ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND PONDING ON ROAD.

0930 PM HAIL TERRY 46.79N 105.31W
05/13/2007 E1.00 INCH PRAIRIE MT PUBLIC

0940 PM HAIL 2 WSW GLENDIVE 47.10N 104.75W
05/13/2007 E1.00 INCH DAWSON MT TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

0955 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N WIBAUX 46.98N 104.18W
05/13/2007 E60 MPH WIBAUX MT TRAINED SPOTTER

1004 PM TSTM WND GST 6 W WIBAUX 46.98N 104.32W
05/13/2007 E60 MPH WIBAUX MT PUBLIC

0920 PM HAIL 3 S CRANE 47.53N 104.27W
05/13/2007 E1.00 INCH RICHLAND MT TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZE SOFT HAIL WITH HEAVY RAIN.

0900 PM HAIL SSE SAVAGE 47.45N 104.34W
05/13/2007 E1.00 INCH RICHLAND MT TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL CRACKED WINDSHIELD.

0900 PM HAIL SW GLENDIVE 47.11N 104.71W
05/13/2007 E0.75 INCH DAWSON MT PUBLIC

REPORTED BY COCORAHS OBSERVER.

0935 PM TSTM WND GST SIDNEY 47.72N 104.16W
05/13/2007 M68 MPH RICHLAND MT AWOS

0800 PM TSTM WND GST WOLF POINT 48.09N 105.64W
05/13/2007 M60 MPH ROOSEVELT MT ASOS

&&

$$

AJZ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141255
SWODY1
SPC AC 141253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR GRT LKS/UPR MS VLY
SW INTO THE CNTRL HI PLNS...

..SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD. MAIN
BELT OF THE WLYS WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN HI PLNS ACROSS THE UPR MS
VLY INTO THE NORTHEAST...DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE
PAC NW/SW CANADA. MAIN IMPULSE OF INTEREST IS NOW OVER CNTRL MT.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE NRN PLNS TODAY...BEFORE
TURNING E/NE TONIGHT AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN LARGER SCALE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO EVOLVE DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HRS OVER THE UPR GRT
LKS.

AT LWR LEVELS...SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH MT TROUGH IS CONSOLIDATING
ATTM NEAR FAR. THE LOW SHOULD ELONGATE ENE INTO UPR MI LATER TODAY
AND REACH GEORGIAN BAY EARLY TUESDAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD
OVERTAKE PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PLNS THIS AFTERNOON AND
REACH A LBB/GAG/MKC/MKE AXIS BY 12Z TUESDAY.

..UPR GRT LKS SW INTO THE CNTRL HI PLNS/CNTRL RCKYS...
DEEP...MODERATE TO STRONG WSWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE UPR MS
VLY/UPR GRT LKS TODAY AS SFC LOW ATTENDANT TO MT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
ELONGATES E/NE ACROSS REGION. WARM SECTOR SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY FREE
OF THICK CLOUDS...ALLOWING FOR STRONG SFC HEATING/STEEPENING OF LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL COMPENSATE FOR SEASONABLY MODEST
MOISTURE INFLOW /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S F/ TO BOOST
AFTERNOON SBCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM ERN
PARTS OF NEB/SD NEWD INTO PARTS OF MN/WI AND UPR MI.

SCATTERED AREAS OF ELEVATED TSTMS...SOME WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...
MAY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG AXIS OF WEAK ASCENT FROM
CNTRL NEB INTO CNTRL MN. THIS CONVECTION...ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH SFC HEATING ALONG COLD FRONT...LIKELY
WILL EVOLVE INTO MORE SUBSTANTIAL TSTMS OVER ERN SD AND CNTRL/SRN MN
BY MID AFTERNOON.

COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG/DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW...
SIZABLE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND LINEAR FORCING OF FRONT
SUGGEST ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS INTO
A BOW MCS WITH DAMAGING WIND OVER THE UPR MS VLY. FARTHER
NE...OTHER STORMS MAY FORM WITH HEATING ALONG WARM FRONT IN NRN
WI/UPR MI. STRONGER DEEP SHEAR IN THIS REGION...COUPLED WITH BACKED
NEAR-SFC FLOW ALONG FRONT MAY YIELD A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HIGH WIND.

FARTHER SW...WEAKER DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST ALONG COLD FRONT OVER
NEB/KS/NE CO AND SRN WY. NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF FRONTAL
UPLIFT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ SHOULD
CREATE SETUP SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND IN NEB/NW KS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO
EARLY TUESDAY WITH A DIMINISHING THREAT FOR SVR. CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS MAY ALSO EVOLVE FROM DIURNAL STORMS FORMING INVOF STALLING
FRONT OVER THE CNTRL RCKYS.

..SRN PLNS TO GULF CST...
STRONG HEATING OF FAIRLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS THE S
CNTRL STATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...WITH 1000 TO
2000 J/KG MUCAPE EXPECTED FROM CNTRL/ERN OK E TX INTO LA/MS.
DEEP SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. BUT DRY MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD SCTD PULSE STORMS WITH HAIL AND/OR
WET MICROBURSTS.

..WRN/SW FL...
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION OVER S FL...WHERE LINGERING AXIS OF COOL AIR
PERSISTS ALOFT. DEEP ELY CURRENT SHOULD FAVOR SW PART OF STATE FOR
POSSIBLE PULSE STORMS WITH HAIL/WIND.

.CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 05/14/2007

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KBIS [141221]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 141221
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
721 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 AM TSTM WND GST NEW SALEM 46.84N 101.42W
05/14/2007 M69 MPH MORTON ND MESONET

&&

$$

LLP

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 270

WWUS20 KWNS 141123
SEL0
SPC WW 141123
NDZ000-141400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 270
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
623 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 270 ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH DAKOTA

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 140941
SWOD48
SPC AC 140941

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

..DISCUSSION...

00Z GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS
RIDGE DURING THE DAY6-8 TIME FRAME AS UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND LATE IN THE PERIOD. MORE RECENT RUNS OF
THIS MODEL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...RATHER
THAN DIG A PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. GIVEN
THAT THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL AVAILABLE FOR THIS FORECAST...AND
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR AN OUTLOOK OF SEVERE ACROSS
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND.

.DARROW.. 05/14/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 140940
SWODY3
SPC AC 140939

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY BE REDUCED TO PORTIONS OF THE
GULF STATES AND THE SRN ROCKIES BY DAY3 AS SFC FRONT SCOURS THE
INTERIOR STATES EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF
MODEST INSTABILITY DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LACKING ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH GENERALLY WNWLY FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 10-20
KT AT 500MB.

..NEW MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD READILY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING ELY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL INTRUSION
FORCES MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION ACTUALLY DEPICT VEERING PROFILES
WITH HEIGHT...THOUGH MARGINAL BULK SHEAR...ON THE ORDER OF 20KT.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION MAY DEVELOP WEAK CIRCULATIONS
INDICATIVE OF SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE GIVEN THE MARGINAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY.

..CENTRAL GULF COAST...

FARTHER EAST...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SWD MOVING COLD
FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM CNTRL
MS...SWWD INTO SERN TX. IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE
FORCING/ASCENT...IT APPEARS SFC HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL
BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL ALONG WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...MUCH OF WHICH SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

.DARROW.. 05/14/2007

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0788

ACUS11 KWNS 140932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140931
NDZ000-141030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0788
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0431 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270...

VALID 140931Z - 141030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 270
CONTINUES.

MCV BORNE OUT OF A STRONG BOW ECHO SYSTEM WAS TRANSLATING NEWD
THROUGH MCLEAN COUNTY ND AT 09Z. TRAILING BAND OF TSTMS HAS
WEAKENED QUICKLY...PRESUMABLY OWING TO INCREASING INHIBITION
VALUES/DECREASING MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM. COLD OUTFLOW DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE IMPETUS FOR REGENERATION OF STORMS AND ANY REMNANT ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE ENEWD INTO ERN ND THROUGH DAYBREAK. WAKE LOW WINDS
WILL BE QUITE GUSTY BEHIND THE PRIMARY PCPN SHIELD...BUT EVEN THOSE
SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AS PRESSURE PERTURBATIONS STABILIZE.

.RACY.. 05/14/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

46099931 47280036 48270007 48989877 48559729 47099724
46099754

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KBIS [140921]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 140921
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
420 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0408 AM TSTM WND GST JAMESTOWN 46.91N 98.70W
05/14/2007 M58 MPH STUTSMAN ND OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

$$

SWICHE

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 140835
SWOD48
SPC AC 140834

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0334 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

..DISCUSSION...

00Z GFS MODEL CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS
RIDGE DURING THE DAY6-8 TIME FRAME AS UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND LATE IN THE PERIOD. MORE RECENT RUNS OF
THIS MODEL ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER...RATHER
THAN DIG A PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. GIVEN
THAT THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL AVAILABLE FOR THIS FORECAST...AND
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW FOR AN OUTLOOK OF SEVERE ACROSS
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS NEXT WEEKEND.

.DARROW.. 05/14/2007

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 269

WWUS20 KWNS 140831
SEL9
SPC WW 140831
NDZ000-SDZ000-141000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 269
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
331 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 269 ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTH DAKOTA
SOUTH DAKOTA

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KDLH [140752]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...correction

NWUS53 KDLH 140752 CCA
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
246 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 AM HAIL EMBARRASS 47.66N 92.20W
05/14/2007 M1.00 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

RWB

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KBIS [140748]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 140748
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
247 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0216 AM NON-TSTM WND GST DICKINSON 46.89N 102.78W
05/14/2007 M63 MPH STARK ND OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

$$

SWICHE

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KDLH [140747]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 140747
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
246 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 AM HAIL EMBARRASS 47.66N 92.20W
05/14/2007 M1.00 INCH EAST CENTRAL ST. L MN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

RWB

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KBIS [140724]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 140724
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
224 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0218 AM TSTM WND GST BISMARCK 46.81N 100.77W
05/14/2007 M63 MPH BURLEIGH ND OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

$$

SWICHE

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 140721
SWODY3
SPC AC 140719

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY BE REDUCED TO PORTIONS OF THE
GULF STATES AND THE SRN ROCKIES BY DAY3 AS SFC FRONT SCOURS THE
INTERIOR STATES EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF
MODEST INSTABILITY DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LACKING ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH GENERALLY WNWLY FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 10-20
KT AT 500MB.

..NEW MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD READILY DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AS DEEPENING ELY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF FRONTAL INTRUSION
FORCES MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION ACTUALLY DEPICT VEERING PROFILES
WITH HEIGHT...THOUGH MARGINAL BULK SHEAR...ON THE ORDER OF 20KT.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION MAY DEVELOP WEAK CIRCULATIONS
INDICATIVE OF SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE GIVEN THE MARGINAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY.

..CENTRAL GULF COAST...

FARTHER EAST...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SWD MOVING COLD
FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM CNTRL
MS...SWWD INTO SERN TX. IN THE ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE
FORCING/ASCENT...IT APPEARS SFC HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL
BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL ALONG WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...MUCH OF WHICH SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

.DARROW.. 05/14/2007

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 270

WWUS20 KWNS 140653
SEL0
SPC WW 140653
NDZ000-141400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 270
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING FROM 155 AM UNTIL 900 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DEVILS LAKE NORTH DAKOTA TO 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF JAMESTOWN
NORTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 269...

DISCUSSION...BOW MCS APPROACHING THE MO RVR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ENE. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM...AND LIKELY PRESENCE OF
STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME /RESIDUAL AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER/ ABOVE
NEAR-SFC INVERSION SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF NEW
CELLS. MAIN SVR THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE HIGH WIND...WITH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 26040.

..CORFIDI

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KBIS [140650]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 140650
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
150 AM CDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0130 AM TSTM WND GST CARSON 46.42N 101.57W
05/14/2007 E65 MPH GRANT ND LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT ESTIMATED WINDS OF 55 TO 65 MPH.

&&

$$

CJS/JF

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KBYZ [140627]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 140627
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1226 AM MDT MON MAY 14 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0940 PM FLASH FLOOD FORSYTH 46.27N 106.68W
05/13/2007 ROSEBUD MT TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER IN BROADUS HEARD REPORT OF FLASH FLOODING OVER
POLICE SCANNER ON INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN MILES CITY AND
FORSYTH.

&&

$$

JA

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