KABR [090212]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KABR 090212
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
911 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0855 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NNW PIERRE 44.44N 100.36W
10/08/2010 E70.00 MPH HUGHES SD PUBLIC

DIME SIZE HAIL AND 60 - 70 MPH WINDS

&&

$$

NWS

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KABR [090210]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 090210
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
910 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NNW PIERRE 44.44N 100.36W
10/08/2010 E70.00 MPH HUGHES SD PUBLIC

DIME SIZE HAIL AND 60 - 70 MPH WINDS

&&

$$

NWS

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KABR [090155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KABR 090155
LSRABR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
855 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0846 PM TSTM WND GST PIERRE 44.37N 100.32W
10/08/2010 M72.00 MPH HUGHES SD ASOS

&&

$$

NWS

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KLBF [090114]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 090114
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
814 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM HAIL 3 S NORTH PLATTE 41.09N 100.77W
10/08/2010 E0.75 INCH LINCOLN NE EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

$$

CBUTTLER

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KUNR [090107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KUNR 090107
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
707 PM MDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM TSTM WND GST 1 NW SAINT FRANCIS 43.14N 100.90W
10/08/2010 E60.00 MPH TODD SD TRAINED SPOTTER

MARBLE SIZED HAIL

0611 PM TSTM WND GST MISSION 43.31N 100.66W
10/08/2010 E60.00 MPH TODD SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0615 PM TSTM WND GST 2 E OKREEK 43.37N 100.34W
10/08/2010 M70.00 MPH TODD SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 PM TSTM WND GST 6 NE WOOD 43.55N 100.39W
10/08/2010 E60.00 MPH MELLETTE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

VAN CLEAVE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 090058
SWODY1
SPC AC 090057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

VALID 090100Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MOST PROMINENT MID-UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINS SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE
AND ACCOMPANYING HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN-CENTRAL
ROCKIES. CYCLONE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD TOWARD
BLACK HILLS/NRN NEB PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND STRONGLY
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVER LOWER-MID MO VALLEY REGION.
PRIMARY/ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE IS ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL SD...FCST TO
DRIFT NWD TOWARD ND/SD BORDER. COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS HAS BEEN OBSCURED SOMEWHAT BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...BUT
SHOULD MOVE TO CENTRAL NEB...W-CENTRAL KS AND NERN NM BY END OF
PERIOD. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD FROM SERN SD AND NRN
IA ACROSS E-CENTRAL SD AND SRN MN.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO WRN DAKOTAS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EVIDENT IN ARC NEAR FRONTAL ZONE...FROM
SERN CO ACROSS SWRN-CENTRAL NEB TO SWRN-CENTRAL SD. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...IN ELEVATED/WAA CONVEYOR ACROSS
WRN ND AND SSEWD THROUGH WRN SD AND NRN NEB....WITH ISOLATED SVR
HAIL POSSIBLE. STEEP LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED WITH APCH OF UPPER TROUGH/LOW...HELPING TO MAINTAIN
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AMIDST WEAK BUT STILL SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE.

SVR GUST POTENTIAL...WHILE NON-ZERO...IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS...AS DIABATIC SFC COOLING DEEPENS
LAYER OF STATIC STABILITY ABOVE GROUND AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES
MLCAPE TO BELOW 500 J/KG IN MOST AREAS. DRY AIR BETWEEN NEAR-SFC
LAYER AND CLOUD BASE STILL MAY SUPPORT A FEW STG AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING GUSTS WITH MOST INTENSE OUTFLOWS...PRIMARILY FROM CENTRAL
SD SWD WHERE AIR MASS BECAME MOST WELL-MIXED DIURNALLY. PRESENCE OF
WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZATION/COVERAGE/DURATION OF
ANY SVR POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS.. 10/09/2010

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KUNR [090043]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 090043
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
643 PM MDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM TSTM WND GST 6 NE WOOD 43.55N 100.39W
10/08/2010 E60 MPH MELLETTE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

VAN CLEAVE

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KLBF [090033]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLBF 090033
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
733 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0418 PM TSTM WND GST ARTHUR 41.57N 101.69W
10/08/2010 E60.00 MPH ARTHUR NE CO-OP OBSERVER

OBSERVER REPORTED SMALL LIMBS DOWN FROM TREES.

0429 PM TSTM WND GST 7 N ARTHUR 41.67N 101.69W
10/08/2010 E80.00 MPH ARTHUR NE PUBLIC

THE PUBLIC STATED THAT A POWER LINE HAS BEEN KNOCKED DOWN
CAUSING A PRAIRIE FIRE.

0458 PM TSTM WND GST 9 SE WHITMAN 41.95N 101.41W
10/08/2010 E60.00 MPH HOOKER NE PUBLIC

0515 PM TSTM WND GST MULLEN 42.04N 101.04W
10/08/2010 E60.00 MPH HOOKER NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

A STOP SIGN HAS BLOWN DOWN...ALONG WITH SEVERAL TREE
BRANCHES. SIZE OF THE TREE BRANCHES IS UNKNOWN AT THIS
TIME.

0531 PM TSTM WND DMG MULLEN 42.04N 101.04W
10/08/2010 HOOKER NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DAMAGE AND NUMEROUS POWERLINES DOWN IN MULLEN.

0549 PM HAIL 15 N NORTH PLATTE 41.35N 100.77W
10/08/2010 M0.50 INCH LINCOLN NE NWS EMPLOYEE

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG WITH THE HAIL.

0550 PM HAIL NORTH PLATTE 41.13N 100.77W
10/08/2010 E0.88 INCH LINCOLN NE NWS EMPLOYEE

HAIL FELL ON THE EAST SIDE OF TOWN.

0553 PM TSTM WND GST 29 S VALENTINE 42.45N 100.55W
10/08/2010 E60.00 MPH CHERRY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0621 PM TSTM WND GST VALENTINE 42.87N 100.55W
10/08/2010 M69.00 MPH CHERRY NE ASOS

0622 PM TSTM WND GST VALENTINE 42.87N 100.55W
10/08/2010 M69.00 MPH CHERRY NE ASOS

0630 PM TSTM WND GST VALENTINE 42.87N 100.55W
10/08/2010 M70.00 MPH CHERRY NE ASOS

0633 PM DUST STORM VALENTINE 42.87N 100.55W
10/08/2010 CHERRY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

CHERRY COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED VISIBILITY AT OR LESS THAN
A QUARTER MILE IN VALENTINE.

0633 PM TSTM WND DMG VALENTINE 42.87N 100.55W
10/08/2010 CHERRY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A ROOF RIPPED OFF A TRAILER AND
LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN IN TOWN.

&&

$$

SJACOBS

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KUNR [090030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 090030
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
630 PM MDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0611 PM TSTM WND GST MISSION 43.31N 100.66W
10/08/2010 E60.00 MPH TODD SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0615 PM TSTM WND GST 2 E OKREEK 43.37N 100.34W
10/08/2010 M70.00 MPH TODD SD TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

VAN CLEAVE

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KPSR [082352]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KPSR 082352
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
452 PM MST FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1112 AM HAIL 4 NE PUNKIN CENTER 33.88N 111.28W
10/05/2010 M0.50 INCH GILA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL WITH HEAVY RAIN NEAR LOWER GREENBACK CREEK

1220 PM HAIL 5 W LAVEEN 33.43N 112.21W
10/05/2010 E0.25 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

VISIBILITY OF 3/4 MILE, WINDS EST. 30 MPH

1220 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NW GILBERT 33.37N 111.81W
10/05/2010 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

HIGH WIND WITH NICKEL SIZED HAIL CAUSED DAMAGE TO
CARS...TREES UP TO 18 IN DIAMETER DOWNED...POWER POLE
TILTED CLOSING GUADALUPE RD BETWEEN COOPER AND NEELY.

1225 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SSW PHOENIX 33.50N 112.10W
10/05/2010 MARICOPA AZ AMATEUR RADIO

TREES DOWN ON CARS, PEOPLE TRAPPED IN CARS

1225 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 S PHOENIX 33.49N 112.07W
10/05/2010 E40.00 MPH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

1225 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNE LAVEEN 33.49N 112.11W
10/05/2010 M0.34 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 MI, STREET FLOODED

1235 PM HAIL 4 E GLENDALE 33.58N 112.13W
10/05/2010 E0.88 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

1240 PM HAIL 1 WNW PHOENIX 33.55N 112.09W
10/05/2010 M1.00 INCH MARICOPA AZ AMATEUR RADIO

1240 PM HAIL 6 NNW PHOENIX 33.62N 112.10W
10/05/2010 M1.00 INCH MARICOPA AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

1 INCHE HAIL MEASURED

1240 PM HAIL SSE GLENDALE 33.58N 112.20W
10/05/2010 E0.25 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUST EST 46 MPH

1242 PM HAIL 20 N PHOENIX 33.83N 112.07W
10/05/2010 M0.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

1/2 TO 3/4 INCH SIZED HAIL STONES COVERING THE ROAD AT
19TH AVE AND THUNDERBIRD.

1245 PM HAIL 9 NNE PHOENIX 33.67N 112.03W
10/05/2010 E0.50 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN, VIS LESS THAN 1/4 MI

1245 PM HAIL 9 NNE PHOENIX 33.67N 112.03W
10/05/2010 E0.50 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN, VIS LESS THAN 1/4 MI

1245 PM HAIL 6 NNW PHOENIX 33.62N 112.11W
10/05/2010 M1.00 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

1245 PM HAIL 8 E PEORIA 33.68N 112.10W
10/05/2010 E0.50 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

1248 PM TSTM WND DMG 9 N PHOENIX 33.68N 112.07W
10/05/2010 MARICOPA AZ AMATEUR RADIO

MULTIPLE SKYLIGHTS BROKEN DUE TO HAIL

1248 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 SSE GLENDALE 33.54N 112.18W
10/05/2010 E0.50 INCH MARICOPA AZ AMATEUR RADIO

HALF INCH RAIN IN 30 MIN, STREET FLOODING TO CURB

1248 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 SE GLENDALE 33.57N 112.19W
10/05/2010 MARICOPA AZ AMATEUR RADIO

SMALL TREES AND BRANCHES DOWN

1252 PM HAIL NW CAREFREE 33.83N 111.92W
10/05/2010 M1.00 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

1252 PM TSTM WND GST 7 N PHOENIX 33.64N 112.05W
10/05/2010 E60.00 MPH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

DEBRIS FROM 1/2 INCH HAIL

1253 PM HAIL 3 E GLENDALE 33.59N 112.15W
10/05/2010 E1.00 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

1255 PM HAIL 8 WNW SCOTTSDALE 33.74N 111.99W
10/05/2010 M1.50 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL OF 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER FELL IN CAVE CREEK NEAR
DYNAMITE ROAD AND CAVE CREEK ROAD. HEAVY RAIN ALSO FELL
WITH 0.90 INCHES IN 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1255 PM AND 110
PM.

1259 PM FLOOD 15 N PHOENIX 33.76N 112.07W
10/05/2010 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

INTERSTATE 17 AND THUNDERBIRD. FREEWAY UNDERPASS FLOODED.
FEW CARS STRANDED.

0112 PM TSTM WND GST 4 N CHANDLER 33.35N 111.86W
10/05/2010 E75.00 MPH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

FENCE BLOWN OVER, MULBURRY TREE BLOWN OVER, PEA SIZE HAIL

0120 PM FLOOD 5 ENE GLENDALE 33.62N 112.12W
10/05/2010 MARICOPA AZ FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

FIRE DEPT REPORTS 6 FT DEEP WATER UNDER UNDERPASS

0120 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 E CHANDLER 33.29N 111.84W
10/05/2010 M0.44 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0.44 INCHES IN 10 MINUTES

0124 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 N CHANDLER 33.36N 111.87W
10/05/2010 MARICOPA AZ UTILITY COMPANY

THIRTEEN POWER POLES KNOCKED DOWN ALONG THE WESTERN CANAL
BETWEEN ALMA SCHOOL ROAD AND DOBSON ROAD IN MESA. THIS
INCLUDES ONE STEEL POLE. NEARLY ALL OF THE DOWNED POLES
CAUSED SECONDARY DAMAGE BY FALLING ONTO HOUSES.

0130 PM TSTM WND GST 4 N CHANDLER 33.35N 111.86W
10/05/2010 E75.00 MPH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

FENCE BLOWN OVER, MULBURRY TREE BLOWN DOWN, PEA SIZE
HAIL. CORRECTED TIME TO PREVIOUS LSR.

0130 PM HAIL GILBERT 33.33N 111.76W
10/05/2010 E1.00 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0150 PM HEAVY RAIN 9 ESE ROOSEVELT 33.61N 111.00W
10/05/2010 E0.50 INCH GILA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

.50 INCHES RAIN IN 15 MINUTES. PEA SIZED HAIL. 40 MPH
WIND.

0150 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 NNE CHANDLER 33.34N 111.85W
10/05/2010 MARICOPA AZ AMATEUR RADIO

12 INCH PLUS DIAMETER TREE UPROOTED, ESTIMATED LOCATION

0230 PM HEAVY RAIN 5 E SUN LAKES 33.21N 111.79W
10/05/2010 M1.00 INCH PINAL AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

1 INCHE MEASURED IN 30 MINUTES

0238 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 S CHANDLER 33.22N 111.87W
10/05/2010 MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE EUCALYPTUS TREE BLOWN DOWN

0251 PM TSTM WND GST 4 NE CHANDLER 33.34N 111.82W
10/05/2010 E70.00 MPH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0305 PM HAIL 4 NE PARADISE VALLEY 33.58N 111.90W
10/05/2010 M2.00 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0306 PM HAIL 4 E PARADISE VALLEY 33.55N 111.88W
10/05/2010 E1.00 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0309 PM HAIL 4 NE PARADISE VALLEY 33.58N 111.90W
10/05/2010 E0.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0309 PM HAIL 3 SSW SCOTTSDALE 33.65N 111.89W
10/05/2010 M1.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0310 PM HAIL 7 WSW FOUNTAIN HILLS 33.58N 111.85W
10/05/2010 M1.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0312 PM HAIL 7 WSW FOUNTAIN HILLS 33.58N 111.85W
10/05/2010 M2.50 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0350 PM HAIL CASA GRANDE 32.89N 111.74W
10/05/2010 E0.75 INCH PINAL AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0416 PM HAIL FIREBIRD LAKE 33.27N 111.96W
10/05/2010 M1.00 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0419 PM HAIL 1 SSW FIREBIRD LAKE 33.25N 111.97W
10/05/2010 M2.00 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0419 PM HAIL 5 WNW FIREBIRD LAKE 33.30N 112.05W
10/05/2010 M1.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0429 PM HAIL 1 NNE CHANDLER 33.31N 111.86W
10/05/2010 E0.88 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

48TH AND CHANDLER

0450 PM HAIL 3 WSW PHOENIX 33.52N 112.12W
10/05/2010 E1.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

BETHANY AND CAMELBACK

0450 PM HAIL PHOENIX 33.54N 112.07W
10/05/2010 M1.00 INCH MARICOPA AZ AMATEUR RADIO

7TH ST AND WASHINGTON

0450 PM HAIL 5 NNE LAVEEN 33.49N 112.11W
10/05/2010 M1.00 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0456 PM HAIL PHOENIX 33.54N 112.07W
10/05/2010 M1.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ AMATEUR RADIO

43RD AVE AND I-10

0500 PM HAIL E GLENDALE 33.58N 112.20W
10/05/2010 M1.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

67TH AVE AND PEORIA

0500 PM HAIL 4 SE GLENDALE 33.53N 112.16W
10/05/2010 M1.00 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

47TH AVE AND MARYLAND

0500 PM HAIL 4 E GLENDALE 33.58N 112.14W
10/05/2010 E1.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

35TH AND PEORIA AND 42 MPH WIND

0503 PM HAIL 2 NW PHOENIX 33.56N 112.09W
10/05/2010 E0.88 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0506 PM HAIL GLENDALE 33.58N 112.20W
10/05/2010 E1.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ BROADCAST MEDIA

75TH AVE AND BELL

0506 PM HAIL 2 NW PHOENIX 33.56N 112.11W
10/05/2010 E1.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

51ST AVE AND BELL

0510 PM HAIL GLENDALE 33.58N 112.20W
10/05/2010 E1.50 INCH MARICOPA AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

67TH AVE AND JOMAX

0746 PM HAIL 1 WSW COOLIDGE 32.97N 111.55W
10/05/2010 E0.25 INCH PINAL AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0802 PM HAIL 7 SE CHANDLER HEIGHTS 33.14N 111.62W
10/05/2010 E0.50 INCH PINAL AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0805 PM HAIL 2 ESE CHANDLER HEIGHTS 33.20N 111.65W
10/05/2010 E0.88 INCH PINAL AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0815 PM HAIL 4 W APACHE JUNCTION 33.40N 111.62W
10/05/2010 E0.25 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO VERY HEAVY RAIN

0815 PM TSTM WND GST E MESA 33.42N 111.74W
10/05/2010 E55.00 MPH MARICOPA AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

ELLSWORTH AND US 60 AREA

0815 PM NON-TSTM WND GST E MESA 33.42N 111.74W
10/05/2010 E55.00 MPH MARICOPA AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

ELLSWORTH AND US 60 AREA

0822 PM HAIL 4 N APACHE JUNCTION 33.46N 111.55W
10/05/2010 E0.25 INCH PINAL AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0826 PM HAIL E MESA 33.42N 111.74W
10/05/2010 M1.00 INCH MARICOPA AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

BROWN AND ELLSWORTH ROADS

0835 PM HAIL 4 NE MESA 33.45N 111.69W
10/05/2010 E1.00 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

0836 PM HAIL E MESA 33.42N 111.74W
10/05/2010 E0.88 INCH MARICOPA AZ AMATEUR RADIO

HIGLEY AND BROADWAY

&&
UPDATED STORM REPORTS FOR TUESDAY OCTOBER 5TH INCLUDING TWO ENTRIES
NOT PREVIOUSLY AVAILABLE FROM MESA AND CAVE CREEK.
$$

AJAMISON

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KUNR [082349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KUNR 082349
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
549 PM MDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM TSTM WND GST 1 NW SAINT FRANCIS 43.14N 100.90W
10/08/2010 E60.00 MPH TODD SD TRAINED SPOTTER

MARBLE SIZED HAIL

&&

$$

VAN CLEAVE

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KUNR [082347]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 082347
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
547 PM MDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM TSTM WND GST SAINT FRANCIS 43.14N 100.90W
10/08/2010 E60 MPH TODD SD TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA SIZED HAIL

&&

$$

VAN CLEAVE

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KLBF [082335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 082335
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
635 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0633 PM TSTM WND DMG VALENTINE 42.87N 100.55W
10/08/2010 CHERRY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A ROOF RIPPED OFF A TRAILER AND
LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN IN TOWN.

&&

$$

SJACOBS

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KLBF [082334]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 082334
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
634 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0633 PM DUST STORM VALENTINE 42.87N 100.55W
10/08/2010 CHERRY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

CHERRY COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED VISIBILITY AT OR LESS THAN
A QUARTER MILE IN VALENTINE.

&&

$$

SJACOBS

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KLBF [082331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 082331
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
631 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM TSTM WND GST VALENTINE 42.87N 100.55W
10/08/2010 M70 MPH CHERRY NE ASOS

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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KLBF [082325]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KLBF 082325
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
625 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0621 PM TSTM WND GST VALENTINE 42.87N 100.55W
10/08/2010 M69.00 MPH CHERRY NE ASOS

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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KLBF [082323]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 082323
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
623 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0621 PM TSTM WND GST VALENTINE 42.87N 100.55W
10/08/2010 M69 MPH CHERRY NE ASOS

0622 PM TSTM WND GST VALENTINE 42.87N 100.55W
10/08/2010 M69 MPH CHERRY NE ASOS

&&

$$

CBUTTLER

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KLBF [082259]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 082259
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
559 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM HAIL NORTH PLATTE 41.13N 100.77W
10/08/2010 E0.88 INCH LINCOLN NE NWS EMPLOYEE

HAIL FELL ON THE EAST SIDE OF TOWN.

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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KLBF [082253]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 082253
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
553 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0553 PM TSTM WND GST 29 S VALENTINE 42.45N 100.55W
10/08/2010 E60 MPH CHERRY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

SJACOBS

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KLBF [082251]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 082251
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
551 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0549 PM HAIL 15 N NORTH PLATTE 41.35N 100.77W
10/08/2010 M0.50 INCH LINCOLN NE NWS EMPLOYEE

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG WITH THE HAIL.

&&

$$

SJACOBS

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KLBF [082232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 082232
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
532 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0531 PM TSTM WND DMG MULLEN 42.04N 101.04W
10/08/2010 HOOKER NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DAMAGE AND NUMEROUS POWERLINES DOWN IN MULLEN.

&&

$$

CBUTTLER

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KLBF [082217]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 082217
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
517 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM TSTM WND GST MULLEN 42.04N 101.04W
10/08/2010 E60 MPH HOOKER NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

A STOP SIGN HAS BLOWN DOWN...ALONG WITH SEVERAL TREE
BRANCHES. SIZE OF THE TREE BRANCHES IS UNKNOWN AT THIS
TIME.

&&

$$

BTAYLOR

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1939

ACUS11 KWNS 082216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082216
SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-082345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1939
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN SD AND WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEB TO
NORTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 082216Z - 082345Z

DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITHIN A
NARROW CORRIDOR...MAINLY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEB INTO
SOUTHERN SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB/NORTHWEST KS...WITH
SOME DAMAGING WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL.

AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO CYCLONICALLY PIVOT OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A FAST MOVING
/45-50 KT/ QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
STEADILY ADVANCE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
NEB INTO SOUTHERN SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT/UPSCALE GROWTH POSSIBLE...IS SEMI-FOCUSED
ALONG/WEST OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE. WHILE
MOISTURE/TOTAL BUOYANCY IS LIMITED...STEEP LAPSE RATES/HIGH DCAPE IN
TANDEM WITH STRONG/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
THE CONTINUANCE OF A SEMI-ORGANIZED FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTER
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL ACROSS NORTHERN NEB/INTO
SOUTHERN SD. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS
COULD ALSO POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK AS WELL. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE BY AROUND 01Z-02Z AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/DECOUPLES.

..GUYER.. 10/08/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 39820025 39510109 40800225 44460125 43839907 39820025

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KLBF [082159]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 082159
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
459 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0458 PM TSTM WND GST 9 SE WHITMAN 41.95N 101.41W
10/08/2010 E60 MPH HOOKER NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

SJACOBS

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KGJT [082148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 082148
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
347 PM MDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HAIL 10 WNW CORTEZ 37.41N 108.75W
10/07/2010 M1.00 INCH MONTEZUMA CO COCORAHS

HAIL CAUSED LEAF DAMAGE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000698

$$

MCS

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KLBF [082130]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 082130
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
430 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0429 PM TSTM WND GST 7 N ARTHUR 41.67N 101.69W
10/08/2010 E80 MPH ARTHUR NE PUBLIC

THE PUBLIC STATED THAT A POWER LINE HAS BEEN KNOCKED DOWN
CAUSING A PRAIRIE FIRE.

&&

$$

SJACOBS

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KLBF [082125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 082125
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
424 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0418 PM TSTM WND GST ARTHUR 41.57N 101.69W
10/08/2010 E60 MPH ARTHUR NE CO-OP OBSERVER

OBSERVER REPORTED SMALL LIMBS DOWN FROM TREES.

&&

$$

SJACOBS

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KGJT [082107]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 082107
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
307 PM MDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM TSTM WND DMG 12 SSW DUTCH JOHN 40.77N 109.50W
10/07/2010 DAGGETT UT TRAINED SPOTTER

NUMEROUS TREES BLOWN DOWN LAST EVENING OVER UINTAH
MOUNTAINS ALONG HIGHWAY 191 BETWEEN 8 AND 9 PM MDT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000697

$$

PRINGLE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 081956
SWODY1
SPC AC 081954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE REQUIRED THIS FORECAST...AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES...AND ARE
EXPANDING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ATTM. MODEST INSTABILITY
PREVAILS -- BUT WITH SOME OFFSET BEING PROVIDED BY AMPLE SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION...A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. ALONG WITH LIMITED THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS...RELATIVELY DRY/DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.

..GOSS.. 10/08/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010/

...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PRIOR OUTLOOK REASONING. THE MIDLEVEL LOW
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY...WHILE THE PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS
REMAINS TO THE N OVER CANADA. THE MIDLEVEL LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD INVOF THE
SD/ND BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT. REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...12Z
SOUNDINGS...AND GOES PW IMAGERY ALL SHOW A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS WARM SECTOR WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND PW VALUES LESS THAN AN
INCH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS/NEB...WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MORE PROBABLE FARTHER TO THE W ALONG THE
LEE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WHERE DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN WEAKER
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

THE MARGINAL MOISTURE AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN INVERTED-V TYPE
PROFILES WITH WEAK BUOYANCY /MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB 750 J PER
KG...PERHAPS ROOTED NEAR 700 MB IN THE RESIDUAL MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME/. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES...BUT THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE STORM THREAT. A FEW STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH HIGH-BASED CONVECTION...THOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOLING
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MIDLEVEL LOW.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 081720
SWODY2
SPC AC 081719

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE STRONGER/ACTIVE MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELD WILL REMAIN OVER CANADA
AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. THIS PERIOD...A LOW WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING
EWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS -- ESSENTIALLY CUT-OFF FROM THE
MAIN BELT OF WLYS FARTHER N.

AS THIS LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE PLAINS...A
WEAK/INCREASINGLY-DIFFUSE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE
PLAINS AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...A GENERALLY NONDESCRIPT SURFACE PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...NRN PLAINS...
WHILE LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO STEEPEN AS AN UPPER LOW
DRIFTS EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS...MEAGER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL. ASCENT --
PARTICULARLY INVOF THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY -- SHOULD
SUPPORT/MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...ANTICIPATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY UNSUPPORTIVE
OF VIGOROUS STORMS -- PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED ABSENCE OF
FAVORABLE SHEAR. WHILE MARGINAL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE...THREAT
APPEARS LOW ATTM.

..GOSS.. 10/08/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 081626
SWODY1
SPC AC 081624

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PRIOR OUTLOOK REASONING. THE MIDLEVEL LOW
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EWD TO THE NRN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY SATURDAY...WHILE THE PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS
REMAINS TO THE N OVER CANADA. THE MIDLEVEL LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD INVOF THE
SD/ND BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT. REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...12Z
SOUNDINGS...AND GOES PW IMAGERY ALL SHOW A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS WARM SECTOR WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND PW VALUES LESS THAN AN
INCH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS OF THE DAKOTAS/NEB...WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MORE PROBABLE FARTHER TO THE W ALONG THE
LEE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WHERE DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN WEAKER
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

THE MARGINAL MOISTURE AND DEEP MIXING WILL RESULT IN INVERTED-V TYPE
PROFILES WITH WEAK BUOYANCY /MUCAPE GENERALLY AOB 750 J PER
KG...PERHAPS ROOTED NEAR 700 MB IN THE RESIDUAL MIDLEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME/. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES...BUT THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
SEVERE STORM THREAT. A FEW STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH HIGH-BASED CONVECTION...THOUGH MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOLING
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MIDLEVEL LOW.

..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 10/08/2010

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KSLC [081614]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KSLC 081614
LSRSLC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1014 AM MDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0353 PM FLASH FLOOD 9 SE CANNONVILLE 37.47N 111.94W
10/07/2010 KANE UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

FLASH FLOOD REPORTED ON THE EAST SIDE OF KODACHROME BASIN
STATE PARK. 0.6 INCHES OF RAIN WAS MEASURED IN THE AREA,
BUT WET CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SATURATED
SOILS IN THE AREA.

0445 PM TSTM WND DMG HUNTINGTON 39.33N 110.96W
10/07/2010 EMERY UT COUNTY OFFICIAL

SEVERAL LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN IN HUNTINGTON. AT LEAST ONE
TREE BLOWN OVER. EVENT TIME IS APPROXIMATE.

0445 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 E CAPITOL REEF NP 38.28N 111.16W
10/07/2010 WAYNE UT PARK/FOREST SRVC

WATER OVER SR 24 EAST OF THE VISITOR CENTER

0506 PM HAIL PRICE 39.60N 110.80W
10/07/2010 M0.88 INCH CARBON UT LAW ENFORCEMENT

0610 PM FLASH FLOOD 7 NW HUNTINGTON 39.40N 111.06W
10/07/2010 EMERY UT COUNTY OFFICIAL

MUDSLIDE OVER STATE ROUTE 31 NEAR THE HUNTINGTON CANYON
COAL PLANT.

0610 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 W JOE'S VALLEY RES 39.31N 111.32W
10/07/2010 SANPETE UT COUNTY OFFICIAL

MUDSLIDE ONTO STATE ROUTE 29 AT MILE MARKER 8 NEAR JOES
VALLEY RESERVOIR.

&&

$$

CRK

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KCHS [081444]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 081444
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1044 AM EDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1036 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 3 NE FRIPP ISLAND 32.35N 80.45W
10/08/2010 BEAUFORT SC PARK/FOREST SRVC

CABIN ROAD IN HUNTING ISLAND STATE PARK HAS BEEN CLOSED
SINCE OCT 6 DUE TO WATER ON THE ROAD. TIME PROVIDED IS
THE TIME OF THE REPORT.

&&

$$

RJB

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KCHS [081441]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 081441
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1040 AM EDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0915 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.08W
10/08/2010 CHATHAM GA LAW ENFORCEMENT

LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED STANDING WATER ON MCINTOSH BLVD
BETWEEN EAST BAY ST AND PRESIDENT ST. A COUPLE LANES WERE
CLOSED BUT THE ROAD REMAINED OPEN TO TRAFFIC.

&&

$$

DPB

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KCHS [081419]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 081419
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1019 AM EDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
10/08/2010 CHARLESTON SC NWS EMPLOYEE

AN OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED 1 INCH OF STANDING
WATER ON THE LOWER PATH IN WATERFRONT PARK.

&&

$$

DPB

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KCHS [081415]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 081415
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1014 AM EDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 E CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.92W
10/08/2010 AMZ330 SC OTHER FEDERAL

THE HIGH TIDE REACHED 7.55 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT
THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE GAGE ON CHARLESTON HARBOR.
SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING BEGINS AT 7 FEET MEAN LOWER
LOW WATER.

0900 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES 2 NNE TYBEE ISLAND 32.03N 80.84W
10/08/2010 AMZ352 GA OTHER FEDERAL

THE HIGH TIDE REACHED 9.37 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT
THE NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE GAGE AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
ENTRANCE TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER. SHALLOW SALT WATER
FLOODING BEGINS AT 9.2 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

&&

$$

JPC

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KCHS [081325]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 081325
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
924 AM EDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
10/08/2010 CHARLESTON SC NWS EMPLOYEE

AN OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED 3 INCHES OF STANDING
WATER OVER THE PILOT BOAT OFFICE PARKING LOT.

&&

$$

DPB

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KCHS [081323]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 081323
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
922 AM EDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
10/08/2010 CHARLESTON SC NWS EMPLOYEE

OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED STANDING WATER COVERING
EAST BAY STREET NEAR HIGHWAY 17. THE ROAD IS STILL
PASSABLE.

&&

$$

DPB

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KCHS [081319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 081319
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
919 AM EDT FRI OCT 08 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0918 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
10/08/2010 CHARLESTON SC NWS EMPLOYEE

OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS STANDING WATER ON MARKET
STREET BEGINNING TO FLOOD ENTRYWAY OF LOCAL RESTAURANT.

&&

$$

JPC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 081247
SWODY1
SPC AC 081245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

NEGATIVELY-TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES WILL PROGRESS EWD
THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD WITH INCREASED HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE PEAK IN
DIURNAL HEATING. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OBSERVED FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO SERN MT WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER CNTRL SD BY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
EWD THROUGH THE AREA.

SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY AND 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING DATA INDICATE
THAT WARM SECTOR AIR MASS REMAINS RATHER DRY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS IN THE 40S AND PW VALUES WELL UNDER AN INCH. AND WHILE THE
PRESENCE OF AN EML WILL SUPPORT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH THE
ONSET OF DIABATIC WARMING...ASSOCIATED CAPPING WILL LIKELY LIMIT
SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION TO ALONG OR IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM ERN WY/WRN DAKOTAS SWD INTO
ERN CO/WRN KS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FROM VICINITY
OF SURFACE LOW SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. WHEN
COUPLED WITH 35-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND/OR SOME HAIL FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

..MEAD/HURLBUT.. 10/08/2010

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 080831
SWOD48
SPC AC 080830

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ESEWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS DAY 4 BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION DAY 5. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE SPREADS REGARDING TRACK OF UPPER
LOW CENTER INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

DAY 4...AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S WILL LIKELY ADVECT NWD THROUGH CNTRL/ERN TX AND OK
WARM SECTOR BENEATH COLD AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION.
A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF SEWD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. DUE TO THE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC NATURE OF THE UPPER
LOW...VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BECOME PARTICULARLY
STRONG...BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THIS REGION ON MONDAY.

DAY 5...SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH INTO ERN
TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY.

WHILE A CATEGORICAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING EXTENT
OF THREAT TO DELINEATE AN AREA AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 10/08/2010

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 080731
SWODY3
SPC AC 080730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST SUNDAY WILL BE THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL
REMAIN CUT OFF FROM THE POLAR WLYS AND IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY
ESEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A
SIGNIFICANT VORT MAX WILL DROP SSEWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS INTO OK
AND NWRN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
COMPLEX. A STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY EXIST FROM THE TX PANHANDLE
INTO OK THEN NEWD AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SURGE WILL DROP SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH IMPULSE ADVANCING SWD ALONG WRN PERIPHERY
OF UPPER LOW. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.

...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY...

COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DIABATIC WARMING WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT
IN DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY...BUT MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DUE TO MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE MOST NUMEROUS IN VICINITY OF SEWD ADVANCING BAROCLINIC
ZONE FROM SD INTO PARTS OF NEB. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

...OK AND NRN TX...

DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION IN THIS REGION...BUT MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO
AOB 500 J/KG. STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF STALLED BOUNDARY OR
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE ACCOMPANYING THE SEWD
ADVANCING VORT MAX. VERTICAL SHEAR COULD INCREASE TO 30-35 KT AS
VORT MAX DROPS SEWD AND GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...A
FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL.. 10/08/2010

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 080552
SWODY2
SPC AC 080551

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
CLOSE OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM AS IT UNDERCUTS UPPER RIDGE AND MOVES
INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS SWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND
EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THE LOW
WILL OCCLUDE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH TRAILING FRONT ADVANCING SEWD
THROUGH KS...NWRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE.

...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS AREA...

ONLY PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH UPPER 40S-50 F DEWPOINTS WILL
EXIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. COOL AIR ALOFT WITH -14 TO -15C AT
500 MB WILL ATTEND THE UPPER LOW...WHICH ALONG WITH DIABATIC WARMING
AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. A MODEST EML IS FORECAST ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A CAP IN THE WARM SECTOR. STRONGEST MESOSCALE FORCING
AND GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN VICINITY
OF DEEPER BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...SEVERAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW CENTER AND INTO PARTS
OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS WARM SECTOR. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THESE
FEATURES AND DIABATIC WARMING COULD WEAKEN CAP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE IN WARM SECTOR WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
BE GREATER. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THE
MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
MARGINAL/CONDITIONAL TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME.

..DIAL.. 10/08/2010

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 080540
SWODY1
SPC AC 080538

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY UPPER AIR FEATURE FOR THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN STG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- PRESENTLY LOSING CLOSED-LOW CHARACTERISTICS AS IT EJECTS
ENEWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES AND ERN GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
THIS PERTURBATION IS FCST TO MOVE THROUGH ROCKIES/HIGH-PLAINS MEAN
RIDGE POSITION DURING PERIOD. EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX SHOULD REACH
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 9/12Z...PROBABLY REDEVELOPING CLOSED 500 MB
LOW AGAIN PER MAJORITY/CONSENSUS OF SREF MEMBERS.

AT SFC...LEE TROUGHING NOW EVIDENT OVER HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
BE OVERTAKEN BY COLD FRONT NOW MOVING ACROSS ERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. MEANWHILE SFC LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
NRN HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE EWD ACROSS SD. BY 9/00Z...SFC LOW SHOULD
BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL SD...COLD FRONT SWD OVER NEB
SANDHILLS THEN SWWD ACROSS ERN CO...WEAK WARM FRONT EWD ACROSS ERN
SD AND SRN MN...AND TROUGH FROM SWRN NEB SSWWD OVER NERN NM.

...CENTRAL-NRN PLAINS...
SVR POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD APPEARS MRGL AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
TWO TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL REGIMES THAT MAY OVERLAP SOMEWHAT...

1. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM
CENTRAL/SWRN SD SWD ACROSS WRN NEB...PERHAPS OVER PORTIONS ERN CO
AND WRN KS AS WELL. ALTHOUGH MLCINH IS FCST TO BECOME QUITE STG
BENEATH ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR FARTHER E...DIABATIC HEATING OF
HIGH PLAINS SFC...COMBINED WITH FRONTAL/TROUGH CONVERGENCE...MAY
OVERCOME CAPPING AND RESULT IN HIGH-BASED CONVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. MRGL MOISTURE -- I.E. SFC DEW
POINTS MAINLY 40S F DURING PEAK OF VERTICAL MIXING -- WILL LIMIT
MLCAPE GENERALLY TO BELOW 500 J/KG MOST AREAS...AND WILL RESTRICT
OVERALL SVR THREAT. SO WILL LACK OF MORE ROBUST VERTICAL SHEAR IN
WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYERS WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STG/DAMAGING GUSTS.

2. FROM NWRN NEB NWD OVER WRN DAKOTAS...AT LEAST MRGL HAIL WILL
BECOME MORE PROBABLE NEAR AND EVEN BEHIND FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS AND DISCRETE CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN REGIME OF STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND WEAK
POSTFRONTAL MUCINH...FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.
ELEVATED WAA CONVEYOR ATOP NRN SEMICIRCLE OF SFC CYCLONE WILL
SUSTAIN SOME TSTMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS WRN DAKOTAS. WITH
30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION.

..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 10/08/2010

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