ACUS01 KWNS 220056
SWODY1
SPC AC 220054
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
VALID 220100Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FAR W TX AND THE TRANSPECOS...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM AND ADJACENT NRN
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE ENEWD TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING QG ASCENT WILL ALLOW A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF FAR W TX AND EVENTUALLY THE
TRANSPECOS REGION. WITH RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTRIBUTING TO AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONGER
CELLS...AND WITH STORM INTENSITY POTENTIALLY AIDED BY MID-LEVEL
SWLYS NEAR 50 KT...SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
...IA/NRN MO/NWRN IL AND VICINITY...
AS A SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION...DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED/ELEVATED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP. WITH
FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES/AMPLE INSTABILITY...MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH A STRONGER STORM OR TWO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 10/22/2012
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Sunday, October 21, 2012
KSEW [212234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS56 KSEW 212234
LSRSEW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
334 PM PDT SUN OCT 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0333 PM HAIL 4 W FEDERAL WAY 47.31N 122.42W
10/21/2012 M0.25 INCH PIERCE WA TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
GRUB
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LSRSEW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
334 PM PDT SUN OCT 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0333 PM HAIL 4 W FEDERAL WAY 47.31N 122.42W
10/21/2012 M0.25 INCH PIERCE WA TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
$$
GRUB
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KSEW [212233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS56 KSEW 212233
LSRSEW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
333 PM PDT SUN OCT 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0332 PM HAIL 1 NE BREMERTON 47.56N 122.69W
10/21/2012 M0.25 INCH KITSAP WA COCORAHS
STARTED AT 321 PM.
&&
$$
GRUB
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LSRSEW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
333 PM PDT SUN OCT 21 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0332 PM HAIL 1 NE BREMERTON 47.56N 122.69W
10/21/2012 M0.25 INCH KITSAP WA COCORAHS
STARTED AT 321 PM.
&&
$$
GRUB
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 211954
SWODY1
SPC AC 211952
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
VALID 212000Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. REMOVED SEVERE
WIND PROBABILITIES FROM THE MID MO VALLEY AS IT APPEARS ANY THREAT
SHOULD BE MAINLY ELEVATED HAIL. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE
THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER FAR NRN MO AND
IA...WITH HAIL POSSIBLE.
..JEWELL.. 10/21/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER FEATURES THAT WILL
AFFECT THE SRN/CNTRL UNITED STATES TODAY. THE FIRST IS A LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM...WHICH WILL TRACK NEWD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE SECOND IS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS NORTHERN GULF OF CA WITH STRONGER
ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF NM AND WEST TX BY THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. BOTH THESE SYSTEMS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
...NM/TX LATE...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING NRN GULF OF CA WILL TRANSLATE EAST
ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THEN OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY
TONIGHT. LIFT WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ACT TO OVERCOME STRONG
INHIBITION AND AID SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT AMIDST STRONG INSTABILITY.
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS WITH
SOME HAIL POSSIBLE. LATE NIGHT NATURE OF THE GREATEST STORM
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL...AND LIMITED AREAL EXTENT OF THIS POTENTIAL
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...SUGGEST THAT SLGT RISK PROBABILITIES ARE
ON THE HIGH SIDE AND WILL LOWER OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO NO
MORE THAN 5 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR PERHAPS A COUPLE OF ISOLATED HAIL
EVENTS PRIOR TO MONDAY MORNING.
...MO/IA/IL...
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WAS
OCCURRING BENEATH A WELL-ESTABLISHED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A STEADY INCREASE IN MUCAPE OVER PARTS OF MO/IA/IL.
WHILE CAPPING IS FORECAST TO PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD
FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING NOCTURNAL
WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL LIFT NEAR SFC LOW AND WARM
FRONT...SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SIMILAR TO WEST TX...WITH GREATEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL OCCURRING LATE IN THE PERIOD AND EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED IN AREAL EXTENT...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR
WARRANTED WITH THIS OUTLOOK.
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SWODY1
SPC AC 211952
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
VALID 212000Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. REMOVED SEVERE
WIND PROBABILITIES FROM THE MID MO VALLEY AS IT APPEARS ANY THREAT
SHOULD BE MAINLY ELEVATED HAIL. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE
THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER FAR NRN MO AND
IA...WITH HAIL POSSIBLE.
..JEWELL.. 10/21/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER FEATURES THAT WILL
AFFECT THE SRN/CNTRL UNITED STATES TODAY. THE FIRST IS A LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM...WHICH WILL TRACK NEWD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE SECOND IS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS NORTHERN GULF OF CA WITH STRONGER
ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF NM AND WEST TX BY THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. BOTH THESE SYSTEMS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
...NM/TX LATE...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING NRN GULF OF CA WILL TRANSLATE EAST
ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THEN OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY
TONIGHT. LIFT WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ACT TO OVERCOME STRONG
INHIBITION AND AID SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT AMIDST STRONG INSTABILITY.
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS WITH
SOME HAIL POSSIBLE. LATE NIGHT NATURE OF THE GREATEST STORM
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL...AND LIMITED AREAL EXTENT OF THIS POTENTIAL
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...SUGGEST THAT SLGT RISK PROBABILITIES ARE
ON THE HIGH SIDE AND WILL LOWER OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO NO
MORE THAN 5 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR PERHAPS A COUPLE OF ISOLATED HAIL
EVENTS PRIOR TO MONDAY MORNING.
...MO/IA/IL...
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WAS
OCCURRING BENEATH A WELL-ESTABLISHED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A STEADY INCREASE IN MUCAPE OVER PARTS OF MO/IA/IL.
WHILE CAPPING IS FORECAST TO PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD
FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING NOCTURNAL
WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL LIFT NEAR SFC LOW AND WARM
FRONT...SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SIMILAR TO WEST TX...WITH GREATEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL OCCURRING LATE IN THE PERIOD AND EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED IN AREAL EXTENT...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR
WARRANTED WITH THIS OUTLOOK.
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 211706
SWODY2
SPC AC 211705
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO
THE APPALACHIANS. IN BETWEEN...A SWLY FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH GENERALLY WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS. EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SW FLOW WILL BE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES...ONE AFFECTING
IA/MO/IL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER MOVING ACROSS NWRN TX
AND OK DURING THE DAY. BOTH THESE FEATURES WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...SOME PERHAPS WITH HAIL.
...NRN MO/IL/WRN IND/IA/SRN WI...
LEADING TROUGH AND LIFT FROM LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN MORNING
STORMS WITH SOME HAIL THREAT. LIFT WILL SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE DAY
INTO WI AND MI WHERE THERE WILL BE LITTLE SEVERE THREAT DUE TO
WEAKER INSTABILITY. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO
FOCUS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
WEAK...AND THUS CAPPING WILL BE A CONCERN.
...NWRN TX INTO SRN OK...
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COOL POCKET ALOFT WILL SPREAD
NEWD ACROSS NWRN TX AND OK DURING THE DAY. SOME ONGOING STORMS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS WRN/NWRN TX EARLY...AND SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD WITH
TIME. COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR WILL
FAVOR A FEW CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL BUT STORM COVERAGE MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED. FORCING FOR STORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS WITH WARM
ADVECTION LATER IN THE DAY AND LITTLE FOCUS AT THE SURFACE. ANOTHER
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUDS...WHICH WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOW AND KEEP CAPPING A CONCERN.
..JEWELL.. 10/21/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 211705
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO
THE APPALACHIANS. IN BETWEEN...A SWLY FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH GENERALLY WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS. EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SW FLOW WILL BE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES...ONE AFFECTING
IA/MO/IL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER MOVING ACROSS NWRN TX
AND OK DURING THE DAY. BOTH THESE FEATURES WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...SOME PERHAPS WITH HAIL.
...NRN MO/IL/WRN IND/IA/SRN WI...
LEADING TROUGH AND LIFT FROM LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN MORNING
STORMS WITH SOME HAIL THREAT. LIFT WILL SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE DAY
INTO WI AND MI WHERE THERE WILL BE LITTLE SEVERE THREAT DUE TO
WEAKER INSTABILITY. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO
FOCUS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
WEAK...AND THUS CAPPING WILL BE A CONCERN.
...NWRN TX INTO SRN OK...
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COOL POCKET ALOFT WILL SPREAD
NEWD ACROSS NWRN TX AND OK DURING THE DAY. SOME ONGOING STORMS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS WRN/NWRN TX EARLY...AND SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD WITH
TIME. COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR WILL
FAVOR A FEW CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL BUT STORM COVERAGE MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED. FORCING FOR STORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS WITH WARM
ADVECTION LATER IN THE DAY AND LITTLE FOCUS AT THE SURFACE. ANOTHER
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUDS...WHICH WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOW AND KEEP CAPPING A CONCERN.
..JEWELL.. 10/21/2012
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 211630
SWODY1
SPC AC 211628
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
VALID 211630Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER FEATURES THAT WILL
AFFECT THE SRN/CNTRL UNITED STATES TODAY. THE FIRST IS A LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM...WHICH WILL TRACK NEWD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE SECOND IS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS NORTHERN GULF OF CA WITH STRONGER
ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF NM AND WEST TX BY THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. BOTH THESE SYSTEMS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
...NM/TX LATE...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING NRN GULF OF CA WILL TRANSLATE EAST
ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THEN OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY
TONIGHT. LIFT WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ACT TO OVERCOME STRONG
INHIBITION AND AID SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT AMIDST STRONG INSTABILITY.
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS WITH
SOME HAIL POSSIBLE. LATE NIGHT NATURE OF THE GREATEST STORM
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL...AND LIMITED AREAL EXTENT OF THIS POTENTIAL
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...SUGGEST THAT SLGT RISK PROBABILITIES ARE
ON THE HIGH SIDE AND WILL LOWER OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO NO
MORE THAN 5 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR PERHAPS A COUPLE OF ISOLATED HAIL
EVENTS PRIOR TO MONDAY MORNING.
...MO/IA/IL...
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WAS
OCCURRING BENEATH A WELL-ESTABLISHED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A STEADY INCREASE IN MUCAPE OVER PARTS OF MO/IA/IL.
WHILE CAPPING IS FORECAST TO PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD
FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING NOCTURNAL
WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL LIFT NEAR SFC LOW AND WARM
FRONT...SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SIMILAR TO WEST TX...WITH GREATEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL OCCURRING LATE IN THE PERIOD AND EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED IN AREAL EXTENT...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR
WARRANTED WITH THIS OUTLOOK.
..CARBIN/DISPIGNA.. 10/21/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 211628
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
VALID 211630Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER FEATURES THAT WILL
AFFECT THE SRN/CNTRL UNITED STATES TODAY. THE FIRST IS A LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM...WHICH WILL TRACK NEWD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE SECOND IS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS NORTHERN GULF OF CA WITH STRONGER
ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF NM AND WEST TX BY THIS EVENING AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. BOTH THESE SYSTEMS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
...NM/TX LATE...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING NRN GULF OF CA WILL TRANSLATE EAST
ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THEN OVER THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY
TONIGHT. LIFT WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ACT TO OVERCOME STRONG
INHIBITION AND AID SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT AMIDST STRONG INSTABILITY.
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS WITH
SOME HAIL POSSIBLE. LATE NIGHT NATURE OF THE GREATEST STORM
DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL...AND LIMITED AREAL EXTENT OF THIS POTENTIAL
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...SUGGEST THAT SLGT RISK PROBABILITIES ARE
ON THE HIGH SIDE AND WILL LOWER OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITIES TO NO
MORE THAN 5 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR PERHAPS A COUPLE OF ISOLATED HAIL
EVENTS PRIOR TO MONDAY MORNING.
...MO/IA/IL...
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WAS
OCCURRING BENEATH A WELL-ESTABLISHED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A STEADY INCREASE IN MUCAPE OVER PARTS OF MO/IA/IL.
WHILE CAPPING IS FORECAST TO PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE
DAY...MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD
FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING NOCTURNAL
WARM ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL LIFT NEAR SFC LOW AND WARM
FRONT...SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. SIMILAR TO WEST TX...WITH GREATEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL OCCURRING LATE IN THE PERIOD AND EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED IN AREAL EXTENT...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES APPEAR
WARRANTED WITH THIS OUTLOOK.
..CARBIN/DISPIGNA.. 10/21/2012
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 211225
SWODY1
SPC AC 211223
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
VALID 211300Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WEST TX MAINLY
TONIGHT...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER FEATURES THAT WILL
AFFECT THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY. THE FIRST IS A LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM...WHICH WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE SECOND IS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND AFFECT NM/WEST TX BY THIS EVENING. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE A
THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
...NM/WEST TX...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX
TODAY...RESULTING IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING.
THE SURFACE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE LONGITUDE OF
MAF...WITH DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE WEST. INCREASING LARGE SCALE
FORCING COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND
SOUTHWEST TX. THESE STORMS WILL APPROACH THE DRYLINE AROUND DUSK
AND MAY INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS. COVERAGE OF INTENSE STORMS IS
LIKELY TO BE SPARSE. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT CAPE AND VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A RISK OF ROTATING STORMS
CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS LIKELY TO
BE 03-09Z IN THIS AREA.
...MO/IA/IL...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL OK AT
12Z. CONTINUED MOISTENING THROUGH THE DAY WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIR
MASS OVER PARTS OF MO/IA...ALTHOUGH A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD
INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION. LATER TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NM WILL APPROACH AND RESULT IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/LIFT. MOST MODEL SOLUTION INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT/. A FEW
OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
..HART/DEAN.. 10/21/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 211223
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
VALID 211300Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WEST TX MAINLY
TONIGHT...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER FEATURES THAT WILL
AFFECT THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY. THE FIRST IS A LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NM...WHICH WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE SECOND IS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND AFFECT NM/WEST TX BY THIS EVENING. BOTH SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE A
THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
...NM/WEST TX...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX
TODAY...RESULTING IN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING.
THE SURFACE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE LONGITUDE OF
MAF...WITH DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE WEST. INCREASING LARGE SCALE
FORCING COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND
SOUTHWEST TX. THESE STORMS WILL APPROACH THE DRYLINE AROUND DUSK
AND MAY INTENSIFY TO SEVERE LEVELS. COVERAGE OF INTENSE STORMS IS
LIKELY TO BE SPARSE. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SUFFICIENT CAPE AND VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A RISK OF ROTATING STORMS
CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS LIKELY TO
BE 03-09Z IN THIS AREA.
...MO/IA/IL...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL OK AT
12Z. CONTINUED MOISTENING THROUGH THE DAY WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIR
MASS OVER PARTS OF MO/IA...ALTHOUGH A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD
INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION. LATER TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
NM WILL APPROACH AND RESULT IN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION/LIFT. MOST MODEL SOLUTION INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT/. A FEW
OF THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
..HART/DEAN.. 10/21/2012
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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 210859
SWOD48
SPC AC 210858
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...00Z ECMWF/GEFS/UKMET IMPLY THAT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF THE WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A SUBSTANTIAL LEAD PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS/CANADA BETWEEN DAYS 4-6
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS.
AS THIS UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT ENCOUNTER A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS
FOR AUTUMN...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE TSTMS ARE PROBABLE ON DAYS 4-5
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. INITIALLY...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS COULD OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST ON DAY
4/WEDNESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SEVERE RISK COULD
SPREAD EASTWARD/POSSIBLY BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD INTO DAY
5/THURSDAY ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY...PERHAPS AS A
FAST-MOVING/LOW-TOPPED SQUALL LINE. WHILE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE TSTMS
ARE PROBABLE ON THESE DAYS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY...LINGERING GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REGARDING UPPER TROUGH
AMPLITUDE/TIMING AND THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE A
DELINEATION OF ANY SPECIFIC SEVERE RISK AREAS.
..GUYER.. 10/21/2012
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SWOD48
SPC AC 210858
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
VALID 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...00Z ECMWF/GEFS/UKMET IMPLY THAT THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF THE WEEK WILL
GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN/NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A SUBSTANTIAL LEAD PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS/CANADA BETWEEN DAYS 4-6
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...DRIVING A COLD FRONT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS.
AS THIS UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT ENCOUNTER A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS
FOR AUTUMN...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE TSTMS ARE PROBABLE ON DAYS 4-5
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. INITIALLY...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS COULD OCCUR
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST ON DAY
4/WEDNESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SEVERE RISK COULD
SPREAD EASTWARD/POSSIBLY BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD INTO DAY
5/THURSDAY ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY...PERHAPS AS A
FAST-MOVING/LOW-TOPPED SQUALL LINE. WHILE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE TSTMS
ARE PROBABLE ON THESE DAYS PROVIDED SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY...LINGERING GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REGARDING UPPER TROUGH
AMPLITUDE/TIMING AND THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE A
DELINEATION OF ANY SPECIFIC SEVERE RISK AREAS.
..GUYER.. 10/21/2012
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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 210729
SWODY3
SPC AC 210728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION ON
TUESDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN INCREASINGLY PROMINENT WESTERN STATES
LONGWAVE TROUGH. ONE OR MORE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHS MAY CONTRIBUTE
TO TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION...BUT GRADUALLY RISING UPPER HEIGHTS ARE OTHERWISE
ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
...MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND OUTRUN THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL
MOIST AXIS AS IT SPREADS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY/OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL OTHERWISE ACCOUNT
FOR SOME TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
PERIOD.
FARTHER WEST...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WITHIN A
RELATIVELY MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN MO AND IA INTO SOUTHERN MN/SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL APPEARS
LOW...OR AT LEAST UNCERTAIN AT THE DAY 3 TIME FRAME GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CAPPING AND LITTLE OR NO READILY DISCERNIBLE BROAD
SCALE ASCENT. OF GREATER LIKELIHOOD WOULD BE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION
TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY. SOME HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THIS SCENARIO. BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY AND
SEEMINGLY MODEST POTENTIAL...NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES CURRENT APPEAR
WARRANTED.
...COASTAL ORE/NORTHERN CA...
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED TSTMS FOR
COASTAL AREAS AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NORTHERN CA ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IN THE
WAKE OF AN INITIAL FRONT...AND/OR NEAR AN APPROACHING SECONDARY
FRONT/TROUGH LATER IN THE PERIOD. SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS SUCH AS COASTAL NORTHERN CA...BUT ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE
TSTMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
..GUYER.. 10/21/2012
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SWODY3
SPC AC 210728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION ON
TUESDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN INCREASINGLY PROMINENT WESTERN STATES
LONGWAVE TROUGH. ONE OR MORE WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHS MAY CONTRIBUTE
TO TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION...BUT GRADUALLY RISING UPPER HEIGHTS ARE OTHERWISE
ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
...MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND OUTRUN THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL
MOIST AXIS AS IT SPREADS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY/OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL OTHERWISE ACCOUNT
FOR SOME TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
PERIOD.
FARTHER WEST...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WITHIN A
RELATIVELY MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN MO AND IA INTO SOUTHERN MN/SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL APPEARS
LOW...OR AT LEAST UNCERTAIN AT THE DAY 3 TIME FRAME GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CAPPING AND LITTLE OR NO READILY DISCERNIBLE BROAD
SCALE ASCENT. OF GREATER LIKELIHOOD WOULD BE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION
TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A NORTHWARD-SHIFTING WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY. SOME HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT IN THIS SCENARIO. BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY AND
SEEMINGLY MODEST POTENTIAL...NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES CURRENT APPEAR
WARRANTED.
...COASTAL ORE/NORTHERN CA...
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED TSTMS FOR
COASTAL AREAS AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NORTHERN CA ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IN THE
WAKE OF AN INITIAL FRONT...AND/OR NEAR AN APPROACHING SECONDARY
FRONT/TROUGH LATER IN THE PERIOD. SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS SUCH AS COASTAL NORTHERN CA...BUT ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED SEVERE
TSTMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
..GUYER.. 10/21/2012
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 210601
SWODY2
SPC AC 210600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG POLAR JET WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS
LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA
MEXICO COAST IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS...
SOME SPATIOTEMPORAL DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO
STEADILY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
DESTABILIZATION /THE DEGREE THEREOF/ ALSO POTENTIALLY IMPACTED BY
LINGERING EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION. WHILE A PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...FORCING FOR
ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...ALONG WITH 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND MODEST WARM SECTOR
DESTABILIZATION /1000-1500 J PER KG MLCAPE/...MAY ACCOUNT FOR
SPORADIC WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OK/NORTH TX TO THE OZARKS.
...MIDDLE/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
NEAR THE TERMINUS OF A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET...SCATTERED
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT MIDWEST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
EXPAND/SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH SOME HAIL POSSIBLE.
FARTHER WEST...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS IA/NORTHERN MO AND THE
ADJACENT MS VALLEY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT/MASS CONVERGENCE MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK
THROUGH PEAK HEATING. NONETHELESS...GIVEN A RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/WARM
FRONT...SOME SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE PROVIDED SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
...COASTAL NORTHERN CA/ORE...
AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION INCLUDING SOME EMBEDDED TSTMS IS
EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF ORE/NORTHERN CA...AND PERHAPS INTO
THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY ACCOUNT FOR SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
...NORTHERN GREAT DIVIDE TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT MARGINAL BUOYANCY AND LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
CHARGE SEPARATION IMPLIES A PROBABILITY/COVERAGE OF LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.
..GUYER.. 10/21/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 210600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG POLAR JET WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS
LARGE SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF
THE WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS. THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE BAJA
MEXICO COAST IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS...
SOME SPATIOTEMPORAL DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO
STEADILY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH
DESTABILIZATION /THE DEGREE THEREOF/ ALSO POTENTIALLY IMPACTED BY
LINGERING EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION. WHILE A PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...FORCING FOR
ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...ALONG WITH 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND MODEST WARM SECTOR
DESTABILIZATION /1000-1500 J PER KG MLCAPE/...MAY ACCOUNT FOR
SPORADIC WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OK/NORTH TX TO THE OZARKS.
...MIDDLE/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
NEAR THE TERMINUS OF A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET...SCATTERED
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT MIDWEST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
EXPAND/SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION...WITH SOME HAIL POSSIBLE.
FARTHER WEST...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS IA/NORTHERN MO AND THE
ADJACENT MS VALLEY IS UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT/MASS CONVERGENCE MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK
THROUGH PEAK HEATING. NONETHELESS...GIVEN A RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/WARM
FRONT...SOME SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE PROVIDED SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
...COASTAL NORTHERN CA/ORE...
AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION INCLUDING SOME EMBEDDED TSTMS IS
EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF ORE/NORTHERN CA...AND PERHAPS INTO
THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAY ACCOUNT FOR SOME SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
...NORTHERN GREAT DIVIDE TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT MARGINAL BUOYANCY AND LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR
CHARGE SEPARATION IMPLIES A PROBABILITY/COVERAGE OF LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.
..GUYER.. 10/21/2012
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 210540
SWODY1
SPC AC 210538
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE
TRANS-PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN OF WRN TX TONIGHT...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL DAMPEN SOMEWHAT AS IT
EJECTS E/NEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY MON. A WEAK LEAD
IMPULSE WILL TRACK FROM NM TO THE MID-MO VALLEY. BROAD LOW-LEVEL
SWLYS WILL AID IN THE TRANSPORT OF RICH MOISTURE FROM THE SRN PLAINS
TOWARDS THE CORN BELT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERSECT A DRYLINE EXTENDING S/SWWD
INTO FAR WRN TX.
...TRANS-PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN OF WRN TX...
DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED OR NON-EXISTENT AS
THE REGION LIES IN BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES. BY
MID-EVENING...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF THE
BAJA CA SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS FORMING W OF THE DRYLINE...LIKELY
INTENSIFYING AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE DRYLINE IN THE PERMIAN
BASIN OVERNIGHT. WITH APPROACH OF A 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED
MAX...DEEP SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.
...MID-MS/MO VALLEYS...
AN EXPANDING EML SHOULD PROVIDE A SUFFICIENT CAPPING INVERSION TO
LIMIT DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE AND FRONT TODAY. AS
A SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS SUN EVENING...ROBUST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD
YIELD CONVECTION INCREASING OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY N/E OF THE MO
VALLEY. WITH A BROAD INFLUX OF RICH WRN GULF MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED
BY 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS/...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
PROMOTE MODERATE BUOYANCY FOR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED PARCELS ROOTED JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPEARS TO REMAIN
MODEST FROM AROUND 20-30 KT. SETUP SHOULD YIELD A FEW MULTICELL
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND.
..GRAMS/MOSIER.. 10/21/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 210538
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE
TRANS-PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN OF WRN TX TONIGHT...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL DAMPEN SOMEWHAT AS IT
EJECTS E/NEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY MON. A WEAK LEAD
IMPULSE WILL TRACK FROM NM TO THE MID-MO VALLEY. BROAD LOW-LEVEL
SWLYS WILL AID IN THE TRANSPORT OF RICH MOISTURE FROM THE SRN PLAINS
TOWARDS THE CORN BELT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS
EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL INTERSECT A DRYLINE EXTENDING S/SWWD
INTO FAR WRN TX.
...TRANS-PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN OF WRN TX...
DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED OR NON-EXISTENT AS
THE REGION LIES IN BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES. BY
MID-EVENING...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE WITH APPROACH OF THE
BAJA CA SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS FORMING W OF THE DRYLINE...LIKELY
INTENSIFYING AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE DRYLINE IN THE PERMIAN
BASIN OVERNIGHT. WITH APPROACH OF A 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED
MAX...DEEP SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.
...MID-MS/MO VALLEYS...
AN EXPANDING EML SHOULD PROVIDE A SUFFICIENT CAPPING INVERSION TO
LIMIT DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE AND FRONT TODAY. AS
A SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS SUN EVENING...ROBUST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD
YIELD CONVECTION INCREASING OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY N/E OF THE MO
VALLEY. WITH A BROAD INFLUX OF RICH WRN GULF MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED
BY 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS/...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
PROMOTE MODERATE BUOYANCY FOR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED PARCELS ROOTED JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPEARS TO REMAIN
MODEST FROM AROUND 20-30 KT. SETUP SHOULD YIELD A FEW MULTICELL
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND.
..GRAMS/MOSIER.. 10/21/2012
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