DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 211706
SWODY2
SPC AC 211705

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WRN U.S. WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE AXIS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD INTO
THE APPALACHIANS. IN BETWEEN...A SWLY FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH GENERALLY WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS. EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SW FLOW WILL BE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES...ONE AFFECTING
IA/MO/IL EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER MOVING ACROSS NWRN TX
AND OK DURING THE DAY. BOTH THESE FEATURES WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...SOME PERHAPS WITH HAIL.

...NRN MO/IL/WRN IND/IA/SRN WI...
LEADING TROUGH AND LIFT FROM LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN MORNING
STORMS WITH SOME HAIL THREAT. LIFT WILL SPREAD NEWD THROUGH THE DAY
INTO WI AND MI WHERE THERE WILL BE LITTLE SEVERE THREAT DUE TO
WEAKER INSTABILITY. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO
FOCUS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
WEAK...AND THUS CAPPING WILL BE A CONCERN.

...NWRN TX INTO SRN OK...
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COOL POCKET ALOFT WILL SPREAD
NEWD ACROSS NWRN TX AND OK DURING THE DAY. SOME ONGOING STORMS ARE
LIKELY ACROSS WRN/NWRN TX EARLY...AND SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD WITH
TIME. COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR WILL
FAVOR A FEW CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL BUT STORM COVERAGE MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED. FORCING FOR STORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS WITH WARM
ADVECTION LATER IN THE DAY AND LITTLE FOCUS AT THE SURFACE. ANOTHER
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUDS...WHICH WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LOW AND KEEP CAPPING A CONCERN.

..JEWELL.. 10/21/2012

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