KDLH [100401]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 100401
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1001 PM CST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1000 PM SNOW GILE 46.43N 90.23W
11/09/2008 M9.3 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL. 3.0 INCHES SINCE 6PM. SNOW BECOMING LIGHTER.

&&

$$

BETTWY

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KGRR [100346]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 100346
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1046 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 PM SNOW 6 WNW LANSING 42.74N 84.66W
11/09/2008 M0.2 INCH EATON MI BROADCAST MEDIA

1020 PM SNOW 2 NE LANSING 42.73N 84.53W
11/09/2008 M0.1 INCH INGHAM MI BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

OSTUNO

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KAPX [100243]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 100243
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
943 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0941 PM SNOW 9 SSW GAYLORD 44.91N 84.74W
11/09/2008 M3.0 INCH OTSEGO MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

3 HR TOTAL SINCE 7 PM. 24 HR TOTAL 6.1 INCHES.

&&

$$

JZ

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KMQT [100235]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 100235
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
935 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0925 PM SNOW N ROCKLAND 46.74N 89.18W
11/09/2008 M5.9 INCH ONTONAGON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

SINCE 9AM THIS MORNING. 3.8 INCHES SINCE 2PM THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

$$

PEARSON

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KMQT [100233]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 100233
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
926 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0925 PM SNOW MUNISING 46.41N 86.65W
11/09/2008 M5.0 INCH ALGER MI NWS EMPLOYEE

STORM TOTAL. 3 INCHES SINCE 6PM.

&&

$$

PEARSON

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KSGX [100228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 100228
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
628 PM PST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 49 WSW LA JOLLA 32.50N 118.00W
11/09/2008 M40.00 MPH PZZ775 CA BUOY

A 40 MPH WIND GUST WAS MEASURED BY THE SAN CLEMENTE BASIN
BUOY.

0507 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 SSE BANNING 33.86N 116.85W
11/09/2008 M52.00 MPH RIVERSIDE CA MESONET

A 52 MPH WIND GUST WAS MEASURED BY THE RANGER PEAK RAWS.

0645 AM NON-TSTM WND GST BORREGO SPRINGS 33.24N 116.35W
11/09/2008 M50.00 MPH SAN DIEGO CA MESONET

A 50 MPH WIND WAS MEASURED AT BORREGO SPRINGS.

0706 AM NON-TSTM WND GST OCOTILLO WELLS 33.14N 116.13W
11/09/2008 M49.00 MPH SAN DIEGO CA MESONET

A 49 MPH WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT OCOTILLO WELLS.

0751 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 14 ESE BIG BEAR CITY 34.19N 116.62W
11/09/2008 M51.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

A 51 MPH WIND GUST WAS MEASURED BY THE BURNS CANYON RAWS.

0836 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 13 E ANZA 33.55N 116.45W
11/09/2008 M56.00 MPH RIVERSIDE CA MESONET

A 56 MPH WIND GUST WAS MEASURED BY THE PINYON RAWS.

0955 AM NON-TSTM WND GST APPLE VALLEY 34.53N 117.21W
11/09/2008 M45.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA AWOS

A 45 MPH WIND GUST WAS MEASURED BY THE APPLE VALLEY AWOS.

1009 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 S INDIO 33.62N 116.23W
11/09/2008 M48.00 MPH RIVERSIDE CA ASOS

A 48 MPH WIND GUST WAS MEASURED AT THERMAL AIRPORT.

1241 PM NON-TSTM WND GST CAMP PENDLETON SOUTH 33.23N 117.37W
11/09/2008 M43.00 MPH SAN DIEGO CA MESONET

WIND GUST OF 43 MEASURED BY THE CAMP PENDLETON TARGET
RANGE RAWS.

0207 PM NON-TSTM WND GST RANCHITA 33.21N 116.52W
11/09/2008 M42.00 MPH SAN DIEGO CA MESONET

A 42 MPH WIND GUST WAS MEASURED BY THE RANCHITA RAWS.

&&

$$

SCV

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KDLH [100207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 100207
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
807 PM CST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0805 PM SNOW UPSON 46.37N 90.41W
11/09/2008 E0.5 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES TOTAL.

0805 PM SNOW HURLEY 46.44N 90.20W
11/09/2008 E3.0 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

3 INCHES SINCE THIS MORNING...1 INCH THIS EVENING. STILL
SNOWING.

&&

$$

MELDE

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KAPX [100119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 100119
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
818 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0816 PM SNOW 9 SSW GAYLORD 44.91N 84.74W
11/09/2008 M1.5 INCH OTSEGO MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

1.5 HR TOTAL THRU 815 PM.

&&

$$

JZ

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KGRR [100112]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 100112
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
812 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM SNOW 4 NNE HOLLAND 42.82N 86.07W
11/09/2008 M0.5 INCH OTTAWA MI COCORAHS

&&

$$

JK

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KGRR [100108]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 100108
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
808 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0807 PM SNOW 3 N GRAND RAPIDS 43.00N 85.66W
11/09/2008 M0.7 INCH KENT MI BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

OSTUNO

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 100104
SWODY1
SPC AC 100101

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 PM CST SUN NOV 09 2008

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...AZ...
POTENT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION EASTWARD OVER AZ/NM
TONIGHT. IN CLOSE ASSOCIATION WITH AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...EXISTING FORCED LINE OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING. WHILE SOME
SHORT-TERM WINDOW FOR HAIL-PRODUCING TSTMS REMAINS...LIMITED
BUOYANCY SHOULD KEEP ANY SUCH THREAT RATHER MARGINAL/ISOLATED IN
NATURE.

...WESTERN OK AND NORTH/NORTHWEST TX...
AS THE SOUTHWEST STATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES...WARM
FRONTOGENESIS WILL GRADUALLY OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH TX AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN OK. WITH AN INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION/ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME...AND THE LATE NIGHT
ARRIVAL OF DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT...ELEVATED CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH TX AND
WESTERN OK...MAINLY BETWEEN 08-12Z. GIVEN INITIALLY DRY/STABLE LOW
LEVELS PER 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
EARLY-STAGE/ELEVATED NATURE OF THE MOISTURE REGIME...LIMITED CAPE
SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL/SPORADIC IN NATURE.
NEVERTHELESS...SOME OF THE STRONGER TSTMS ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH TX
AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN OK LATE TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

..GUYER.. 11/10/2008

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KGRR [100100]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 100100
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
759 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 PM SNOW GRANDVILLE 42.90N 85.76W
11/09/2008 M1.0 INCH KENT MI NWS EMPLOYEE

TOTAL ACCUMULATION SINCE 6 PM

&&

$$

JK

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KGRR [100017]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 100017
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
717 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM SNOW LANSING 42.71N 84.55W
11/09/2008 M0.1 INCH INGHAM MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

$$

OSTUNO

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KGRR [100016]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 100016
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
716 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM SNOW GRAND RAPIDS 42.96N 85.66W
11/09/2008 M0.3 INCH KENT MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

$$

OSTUNO

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KAPX [100010]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 100010
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
710 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM SNOW 9 SSW GAYLORD 44.91N 84.74W
11/09/2008 M3.1 INCH OTSEGO MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

24 HR TOTAL THRU 7 PM. SNOWDEPTH 2 INCHES.

&&

$$

JZ

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KDLH [092354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 092354
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
554 PM CST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0550 PM SNOW GILE 46.43N 90.23W
11/09/2008 M6.3 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL. 0.5 INCHES SINCE 4PM.

&&

$$

BETTWY

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KPSR [092350]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 092350
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
449 PM MST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0449 PM HAIL ARIZONA CITY 32.75N 111.67W
11/09/2008 E0.25 INCH PINAL AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

INIGUEZ

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KGRR [092341]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 092341
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
641 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 PM SNOW EAST GRAND RAPIDS 42.95N 85.61W
11/09/2008 M0.5 INCH KENT MI TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

OSTUNO

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KAPX [092333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 092333
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
633 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM SNOW 5 SE MANCELONA 44.85N 84.99W
11/09/2008 M3.0 INCH KALKASKA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HR TOTAL THRU 6 PM.

&&

$$

JZ

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KMQT [092302]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMQT 092302
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
602 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1012 AM SNOW 2 WNW IRONWOOD 46.47N 90.18W
11/09/2008 M3.0 INCH IRON WI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN 24 HOURS

1012 AM SNOW MARENISCO 46.38N 89.70W
11/09/2008 E5.5 INCH GOGEBIC MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

ESTIMATED 5-6 INCHES IN LAST 24 HOURS.

0114 PM SNOW IRONWOOD 46.45N 90.15W
11/09/2008 E5.0 INCH GOGEBIC MI COUNTY OFFICIAL

REPORTED FROM LOCAL POLICE SINCE START OF EVENT SATURDAY
MORNING.

0500 PM SNOW 4 NE NEGAUNEE 46.54N 87.54W
11/09/2008 M4.4 INCH MARQUETTE MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

10AM YESTERDAY THROUGH 5PM TODAY. 3.9 INCHES IN THE PAST
24 HOURS.

0500 PM SNOW 3 SW WATTON 46.50N 88.64W
11/09/2008 M7.4 INCH BARAGA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL. 6.2 INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.

0530 PM SNOW 5 N SHINGLETON 46.42N 86.48W
11/09/2008 M11.0 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER

11 INCHES FELL IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. 9 INCH SNOW DEPTH.

&&

$$

PEARSON

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KMQT [092302]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 092302
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
601 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM SNOW 3 SW WATTON 46.50N 88.64W
11/09/2008 M7.4 INCH BARAGA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

STORM TOTAL. 6.2 INCHES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.

&&

$$

PEARSON

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KMQT [092248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KMQT 092248
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
548 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1012 AM SNOW 2 WNW IRONWOOD 46.47N 90.18W
11/09/2008 M3.0 INCH IRON WI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN 24 HOURS

1012 AM SNOW MARENISCO 46.38N 89.70W
11/09/2008 E5.5 INCH GOGEBIC MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

ESTIMATED 5-6 INCHES IN LAST 24 HOURS.

0114 PM SNOW IRONWOOD 46.45N 90.15W
11/09/2008 E5.0 INCH GOGEBIC MI COUNTY OFFICIAL

REPORTED FROM LOCAL POLICE SINCE START OF EVENT SATURDAY
MORNING.

0500 PM SNOW 4 NE NEGAUNEE 46.54N 87.54W
11/09/2008 M4.4 INCH MARQUETTE MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

10AM YESTERDAY THROUGH 5PM TODAY. 3.9 INCHES IN THE PAST
24 HOURS.

0530 PM SNOW 5 N SHINGLETON 46.42N 86.48W
11/09/2008 M11.0 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER

11 INCHES FELL IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. 9 INCH SNOW DEPTH.

&&

$$

PEARSON

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KMQT [092247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 092247
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
547 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM SNOW 4 NE NEGAUNEE 46.54N 87.54W
11/09/2008 M4.4 INCH MARQUETTE MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

10AM YESTERDAY THROUGH 5PM TODAY. 3.9 INCHES IN THE PAST
24 HOURS.

&&

$$

PEARSON

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KMQT [092244]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 092244
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
544 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM SNOW 5 N SHINGLETON 46.42N 86.48W
11/09/2008 M11.0 INCH ALGER MI TRAINED SPOTTER

11 INCHES FELL IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. 9 INCH SNOW DEPTH.

&&

$$

PEARSON

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KPSR [092239]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 092239
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
339 PM MST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0339 PM HAIL CHANDLER 33.29N 111.87W
11/09/2008 E0.25 INCH MARICOPA AZ NWS EMPLOYEE

SOUTH CHANDLER.

&&

$$

INIGUEZ

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KDLH [092232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 092232
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
432 PM CST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM SNOW GILE 46.43N 90.23W
11/09/2008 M5.8 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL. JUST 0.8 INCHES SINCE 9AM

&&

$$

BETTWY

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KPSR [092148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPSR 092148
LSRPSR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
248 PM MST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0240 PM HAIL GLENDALE 33.58N 112.20W
11/09/2008 E0.88 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

NEAR THE LOOP 101 AND UNION HILLS.

0242 PM HAIL PEORIA 33.69N 112.24W
11/09/2008 E0.75 INCH MARICOPA AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

NEAR 89TH AVE AND GREENWAY.

&&

$$

INIGUEZ

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KVEF [092003]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KVEF 092003
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1203 PM PST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0840 AM HAIL 2 SW CEDAR HILLS 35.16N 113.81W
11/09/2008 E0.25 INCH MOHAVE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED PEA SIZE HAIL FELL 18 MILES EAST OF KINGMAN AT
4500 FEET.

&&

$$

KLABELLE

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KDLH [091959]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDLH 091959
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
159 PM CST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0640 AM SNOW COOK 47.85N 92.69W
11/09/2008 M0.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0730 AM SNOW GLIDDEN 46.13N 90.58W
11/09/2008 M2.0 INCH ASHLAND WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM SNOW GURNEY 46.47N 90.51W
11/09/2008 M3.0 INCH IRON WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0730 AM SNOW BAYFIELD 46.81N 90.82W
11/09/2008 M1.0 INCH BAYFIELD WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0747 AM SNOW EMBARRASS 47.66N 92.20W
11/09/2008 M0.4 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW UPSON 46.37N 90.41W
11/09/2008 M2.5 INCH IRON WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW HURLEY 46.44N 90.20W
11/09/2008 M5.0 INCH IRON WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0810 AM SNOW 4 S BRUNO 46.22N 92.67W
11/09/2008 M0.3 INCH PINE MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0900 AM SNOW GILE 46.43N 90.23W
11/09/2008 M5.0 INCH IRON WI TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL

&&

$$

TLONKA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091954
SWODY1
SPC AC 091951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST SUN NOV 09 2008

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN OK INTO ADJACENT N TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE...
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION IS FORECAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.
AS A RESULT...THE COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION
OVERNIGHT.

WHILE A GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE APPRECIABLE
SEVERE POTENTIAL IN MOST AREAS...A FEW STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE/NWRN TX AND ADJACENT SWRN OK LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..GOSS.. 11/09/2008

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KMQT [091816]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 091816
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
115 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0114 PM SNOW IRONWOOD 46.45N 90.15W
11/09/2008 E5.0 INCH GOGEBIC MI COUNTY OFFICIAL

REPORTED FROM LOCAL POLICE SINCE START OF EVENT SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

$$

AJK

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KMQT [091811]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 091811
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
111 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1012 AM SNOW MARENISCO 46.38N 89.70W
11/09/2008 E5.5 INCH GOGEBIC MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

ESTIMATED 5-6 INCHES IN LAST 24 HOURS.

&&

$$

AJK

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 091732
SWODY2
SPC AC 091730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SUN NOV 09 2008

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. AND ERN CANADA....A SMALLER-SCALE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO/ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS SHOULD BE A PRIMARY
FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE FORECAST.

AS THIS FEATURE -- AND THE ENHANCED WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT --
MOVES INTO THE S CENTRAL CONUS...A BROAD ZONE OF WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...SRN PLAINS...
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF TX/OK AND VICINITY...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION
DURING THE DAY SHOULD BE HINDERED BY WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER FEATURE AND SOME STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF ENHANCED/LOCALLY-VIGOROUS CONVECTION.

MUCH OF THE CONVECTION FROM N TX NWD SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...AND
THUS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL HAIL.
FURTHER S INTO CENTRAL TX...A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED OR
NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS IS EXPECTED. HERE...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS SUGGESTS SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN A TORNADO
OR TWO IN ADDITION THE HAIL POTENTIAL.

THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS TX WHERE
SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD LINGER.

..GOSS.. 11/09/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091637
SWODY1
SPC AC 091634

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CST SUN NOV 09 2008

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS TONIGHT...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EWD OVER AZ/NM TODAY AND REACH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. THE APPROACH OF THIS MID LEVEL WAVE WILL INDUCE
INCREASING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS TX/OK LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AND
AN ATTENDANT NWD INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT WHEN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE
ACROSS TX/OK. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HAIL...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT LATE TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL.

...SRN GREAT BASIN TO WRN NM...
THE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EWD TODAY...WITH
A BELT OF STRONG MID LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTENING ACCOMPANYING THE
WAVE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
THIS ZONE OF ASCENT AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES SHIFT EWD FROM SRN NV
TOWARD WRN NM THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 11/09/2008

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KMFR [091546]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 091546
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
746 AM PST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.32W
11/09/2008 M1.66 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER

TOTAL RAINFALL FOR THE PREVIOUS 24 HOUR PERIOD.

&&

$$

WOODHEAD

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KMQT [091514]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 091514
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1013 AM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1012 AM SNOW 2 WNW IRONWOOD 46.47N 90.18W
11/09/2008 M3.0 INCH IRON WI CO-OP OBSERVER

IN 24 HOURS

&&

$$

AJK

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KDLH [091443]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 091443
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
843 AM CST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 AM SNOW BUTTERNUT 46.01N 90.50W
11/09/2008 M0.5 INCH ASHLAND WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0640 AM SNOW COOK 47.85N 92.69W
11/09/2008 M0.5 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0730 AM SNOW BAYFIELD 46.81N 90.82W
11/09/2008 M1.0 INCH BAYFIELD WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0730 AM SNOW GURNEY 46.47N 90.51W
11/09/2008 M3.0 INCH IRON WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0730 AM SNOW GLIDDEN 46.13N 90.58W
11/09/2008 M2.0 INCH ASHLAND WI TRAINED SPOTTER

0747 AM SNOW EMBARRASS 47.66N 92.20W
11/09/2008 M0.4 INCH ST. LOUIS MN CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW UPSON 46.37N 90.41W
11/09/2008 M2.5 INCH IRON WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM SNOW HURLEY 46.44N 90.20W
11/09/2008 M5.0 INCH IRON WI CO-OP OBSERVER

0810 AM SNOW 4 S BRUNO 46.22N 92.67W
11/09/2008 M0.3 INCH PINE MN CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

TLONKA

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KGRB [091321]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRB 091321
LSRGRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
721 AM CST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0719 AM SNOW WINCHESTER 46.21N 89.90W
11/09/2008 M4.0 INCH VILAS WI CO-OP OBSERVER

SINCE IT BEGAN ON SATURDAY. .27 WATER EQUIVALENT

&&

$$

RICHM

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KMQT [091300]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 091300
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
800 AM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 AM SNOW ROCKLAND 46.74N 89.18W
11/09/2008 M3.7 INCH ONTONAGON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

IN LAST 24 HOURS. 2.3 INCHES LAST 12 HOURS.

0755 AM SNOW 2 ESE SIDNAW 46.50N 88.67W
11/09/2008 M4.7 INCH BARAGA MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

IN LAST 24 HOURS. 3.5 IN LAST 12 HOURS.

0755 AM SNOW 4 N IRON RIVER 46.15N 88.65W
11/09/2008 M2.6 INCH IRON MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

IN LAST 24 HOURS.

&&

$$

AJK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091233
SWODY1
SPC AC 091230

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 AM CST SUN NOV 09 2008

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...GREAT BASIN INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
PRIMARY FEATURE REGARDING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE INTENSE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...ALONG WITH DEEP ASCENT...
WILL MAINTAIN SEVERAL AREAS OF NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE GREAT BASIN EXPANDING EWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES.

FARTHER EAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS...MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
FREE OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AS SLY LOW LEVEL MASS FIELDS RESPOND
AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS IN EARNEST LATE TONIGHT. UPPER
AIR SOUNDINGS AND GOES PW DATA EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NERN MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE
SRN TIP OF TX TOWARDS THE BIG BEND REGION. H85 DEW POINTS AOA 8C
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL TX INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE MAJORITY INCREASING AFTER DARK AS H85
SSWLY LLJ INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 50 KT. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM AND
INCREASE INSTABILITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. COMBINATION OF INCREASING
ASCENT AND MOISTENING NEAR BOTTOM OF THIS EML SHOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
09Z...ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TX INTO OK. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP OUT OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF
INTENSE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET AND SPREAD INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE INTO
WRN OK/SWRN KS. DESPITE MEAGER MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAVOR HAIL GROWTH /SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE/ WITH THE STRONGER
CORES ACROSS THIS REGION LATE TONIGHT GIVEN STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/COLD AIR ALOFT.

..EVANS.. 11/09/2008

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KMQT [091219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 091219
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
719 AM EST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0709 AM SNOW 3 NNE CALUMET 47.28N 88.43W
11/09/2008 M2.1 INCH HOUGHTON MI OFFICIAL NWS OBS

IN 24 HOURS

0709 AM SNOW 4 NE NEGAUNEE 46.53N 87.55W
11/09/2008 M3.2 INCH MARQUETTE MI NWS EMPLOYEE

IN 24 HOURS. SNOW DEPTH 2 INCHES. STILL SNOWING.

&&

$$

AJK

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KHNX [091113]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 091113
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
313 AM PST SUN NOV 09 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1022 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE CLOVIS 36.83N 119.68W
11/08/2008 M0.37 INCH FRESNO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

RAINFALL FELL IN 10 MINUTES FROM A THUNDERSTORM. RUNOFF
CAUSED LOCAL STREET FLOODING.

&&

$$

SANGER

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 090909
SWOD48
SPC AC 090908

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 AM CST SUN NOV 09 2008

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...

DAY 4...

SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD LINGER FROM COASTAL TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY IN VICINITY OF SEWD ADVANCING FRONT. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME...OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO JUSTIFY A HIGHER END
OUTLOOK.

BEYOND DAY 4...

COMPLEX PATTERN AND DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASE UNCERTAINTY
DAY 5-6. OVERALL TREND IN LARGE SCALE UPPER PATTERN BEYOND DAY 6
WILL BE FOR A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE WRN U.S. WITH A CORRESPONDING
AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE EAST WHICH WOULD YIELD LOW
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..DIAL.. 11/09/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 090833
SWODY3
SPC AC 090830

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST SUN NOV 09 2008

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY. MODELS SIMILAR IN
OVERALL PATTERN BUT DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON DETAILS. STRONG IMPULSE NOW
MOVING THROUGH CA WILL DEAMPLIFY AND WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES NE INTO
THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE OH VALLEY. FARTHER WEST A SRN
STREAM POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
NRN MEXICO AND WRN TX. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN OK SWWD INTO THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH ERN TX AND
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD.

...ERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY...

AXIS OF MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR FROM SERN TX INTO A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF ERN TX ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
NE DURING THE DAY. FARTHER SW POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE OVER S TX WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL VEER AND WEAKEN FROM S THROUGH SE TX AS LOW LEVEL JET MIGRATES
NEWD TOWARD THE TN VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH EJECTING LEAD IMPULSE.
BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN MEXICO...DEEP
FORCING WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAK AND CONVERGENCE ALONG SE ADVANCING
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG DURING THE DAY.
MOREOVER...SWLY FLOW ALOFT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
A MODEST INVERSION OVER A PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR. THESE FACTORS
RAISE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE DAY
WHERE THE BEST DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WILL EXIST. THREAT FOR
STORMS MAY INCREASE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS HEIGHTS FALL AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. IF STORMS CAN
REDEVELOP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO ROTATE WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL LIMITING
FACTORS...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO CATEGORICAL RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS ONCE MORE CONFIDENCE IS ESTABLISHED.

..DIAL.. 11/09/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 090635
SWODY2
SPC AC 090634

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CST SUN NOV 09 2008

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE ERN HALF OF TX AND
PORTIONS OF OK THROUGH SW LA...

...SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG UPPER JET AND ITS ATTENDANT VORT MAX NOW MOVING SE THROUGH
CA WILL REACH THE SRN PLAINS EARLY DAY 2 BEFORE EJECTING ENEWD INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY MONDAY. DRYLINE
WILL SETUP ACROSS W CNTRL TX DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BE
OVERTAKEN BY A SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT BY MONDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH ERN TX MONDAY AND INTO LA MONDAY NIGHT.

...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LA...

AN AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL
ADVECT NWD ALONG STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THE ERN HALF OF
TX. THIS MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND DEVELOPS EAST IN RESPONSE TO
THE EWD MIGRATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. NWD AND EWD EXTENT OF RICHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED BY ESELY LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY EMANATING FROM CP HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SERN STATES. BASED ON
EXPECTED FORECAST TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF WARM SECTOR. THIS
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND EARLY CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY IN MUCH OF WARM SECTOR.

STORMS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY MONDAY WITHIN ZONE OF LIFT AND WARM
ADVECTION FROM PARTS OF CNTRL TX NWD THROUGH OK WITH A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND NE
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE MUCAPE WILL BE MORE LIMITED. IN
WAKE OF INITIAL STORMS AND AHEAD OF DRYLINE...LOW CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT
AND CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION OVER PARTS OF CNTRL THROUGH S
CNTRL TX.

PRIMARY ZONE OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET WILL SHIFT NORTH AND
BECOME INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM WARM SECTOR. THIS ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PLUME OF WARMER MID-LEVEL AIR TO SPREAD NE OFF THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU AND INTO SWRN THROUGH SERN TX MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OF
STORMS WHERE GREATER DESTABILIZATION IS MORE LIKELY. THESE POSSIBLE
LIMITING FACTORS RAISE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE
OF THE SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH HODOGRAPHS IN VICINITY OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.

STORMS DEVELOPING ON SRN FLANK OF EWD ADVANCING MCS COULD BECOME
SURFACE BASED AND INTENSIFY...ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL THROUGH SE TX
DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. VERTICAL SHEAR IN
THIS REGION WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. SEVERE THREAT MAY REACH PARTS OF
WRN LA OVERNIGHT.

..DIAL.. 11/09/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 090600
SWODY1
SPC AC 090557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST SAT NOV 08 2008

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
RIDGING ALOFT OVER WRN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AS CYCLONIC
FLOW IS MAINTAINED OVER GREAT LAKES AND NERN CONUS...AND STG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NRN/CENTRAL CA MOVES OVER 4-CORNERS
REGION. BY 10/12Z...THAT TROUGH WILL PIVOT SEWD THEN EWD ACROSS
SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...MID-UPPER
LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED OVER LH IS FCST TO BECOME PART OF BINARY
SYSTEM...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APCHG MN ARROWHEAD STRENGTHENS INTO
CLOSED LOW AND PIVOTS SEWD/EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES.

AT SFC...EXPECT WELL-DEFINED CYCLOGENESIS INVOF OK/NM BORDER DURING
LATTER 6-9 HOURS OF PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGH APCHS. LEE TROUGH WILL
EXTEND GENERALLY SSEWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND W-CENTRAL TX. NEARLY
COLLOCATED DRYLINE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH TIME...LATE IN
PERIOD...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVER CENTRAL/S TX.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
TSTMS FCST TO DEVELOP AFTER DARK ACROSS PORTIONS TX/OK AND PERHAPS
INTO SRN KS...MOST LIKELY AFTER 06Z...AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE
THROUGH END OF PERIOD. MOST INTENSE CELLS OR CLUSTERS MAY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL...BUT CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK IS PRECLUDED ATTM BY
COMBINATION OF SPATIAL UNCERTAINTIES AND MRGL LEVELS OF FCST
INSTABILITY.

PERSISTENT WAA/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS EWD THROUGH 4-CORNERS/SRN
ROCKIES REGION. MOIST RETURN-FLOW REGIME WILL BE IMMATURE FOR THIS
PERIOD...LARGELY BECAUSE OF TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM CONTINENTAL
RIDGING AND INCOMPLETE AIR MASS MODIFICATION PROCESS OVER NRN GULF.
PRIND 50S F SFC DEW POINTS WILL SPREAD NWD THROUGH CENTRAL TX BY
10/12Z...GRADATING TO MID-UPPER 60S F OVER DEEP S TX. EARLY-STAGE
RETURN MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED NWD ACROSS NRN TX AND OK LATE IN
PERIOD...PROBABILITIES OF BEING LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY TO LFC
INCREASING WITH EACH PASSING HOUR. LAPSE RATES ALOFT GENERALLY WILL
INCREASE WITH WWD EXTENT...BUT STRONGEST COOLING ALOFT WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED FROM RICHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNTIL AFTER 10/12Z.
MODIFIED NAM-KF SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED MUCAPES 300-500 J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE BY 10/12Z. GIVEN BROAD NATURE OF WAA REGIME AND LACK OF
STRONGLY DEFINED WARM FRONTAL ZONE...MOST PROBABLE MESOSCALE AREAS
FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ARE NEBULOUS AND UNCERTAIN.

...TX COASTAL PLAIN...
CONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITY EXISTS GIVEN FCST OF VERY LARGE LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS OVERNIGHT AND -- IN A FEW MODEL SOUNDINGS --
EFFECTIVE LIFTED PARCELS ROOTED NEAR SFC FOR DEW POINTS MID-UPPER
60S F WITH NARROW BUOYANT PROFILE EXTENDING UPWARD INTO ICING
LAYERS. ATTM...WILL NOT INCLUDE THAT AREA IN SVR PROBABILITIES
BECAUSE OF LACK OF APPARENT FOCI FOR INITIATION.

..EDWARDS/LEVIT.. 11/09/2008

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