SWODY2
SPC AC 090634
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CST SUN NOV 09 2008
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE ERN HALF OF TX AND
PORTIONS OF OK THROUGH SW LA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER JET AND ITS ATTENDANT VORT MAX NOW MOVING SE THROUGH
CA WILL REACH THE SRN PLAINS EARLY DAY 2 BEFORE EJECTING ENEWD INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY MONDAY. DRYLINE
WILL SETUP ACROSS W CNTRL TX DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL EVENTUALLY BE
OVERTAKEN BY A SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT BY MONDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH ERN TX MONDAY AND INTO LA MONDAY NIGHT.
...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LA...
AN AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL
ADVECT NWD ALONG STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THE ERN HALF OF
TX. THIS MOIST AXIS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND DEVELOPS EAST IN RESPONSE TO
THE EWD MIGRATING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. NWD AND EWD EXTENT OF RICHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED BY ESELY LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY EMANATING FROM CP HIGH
PRESSURE THAT WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE SERN STATES. BASED ON
EXPECTED FORECAST TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE STEEPER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF WARM SECTOR. THIS
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND EARLY CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY LIMIT
INSTABILITY IN MUCH OF WARM SECTOR.
STORMS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY MONDAY WITHIN ZONE OF LIFT AND WARM
ADVECTION FROM PARTS OF CNTRL TX NWD THROUGH OK WITH A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND NE
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE MUCAPE WILL BE MORE LIMITED. IN
WAKE OF INITIAL STORMS AND AHEAD OF DRYLINE...LOW CLOUDS MAY MIX OUT
AND CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION OVER PARTS OF CNTRL THROUGH S
CNTRL TX.
PRIMARY ZONE OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET WILL SHIFT NORTH AND
BECOME INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM WARM SECTOR. THIS ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PLUME OF WARMER MID-LEVEL AIR TO SPREAD NE OFF THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU AND INTO SWRN THROUGH SERN TX MAY LIMIT COVERAGE OF
STORMS WHERE GREATER DESTABILIZATION IS MORE LIKELY. THESE POSSIBLE
LIMITING FACTORS RAISE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE
OF THE SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH HODOGRAPHS IN VICINITY OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER.
STORMS DEVELOPING ON SRN FLANK OF EWD ADVANCING MCS COULD BECOME
SURFACE BASED AND INTENSIFY...ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL THROUGH SE TX
DEPENDING ON DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING. VERTICAL SHEAR IN
THIS REGION WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS. THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. SEVERE THREAT MAY REACH PARTS OF
WRN LA OVERNIGHT.
..DIAL.. 11/09/2008
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