Monday, February 6, 2012

KPUB [070453]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 070453
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
953 PM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0952 PM SNOW 2 SE PENROSE 38.41N 104.99W
02/06/2012 M1.0 INCH FREMONT CO TRAINED SPOTTER

STARTED AT 1930 THIS EVENING


&&

$$

KMOZLEY

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KPUB [070434]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KPUB 070434
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
933 PM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0922 PM SNOW FLORENCE 38.39N 105.12W
02/06/2012 M3.0 INCH FREMONT CO PUBLIC

RELAYED BY MEDIA.

0922 PM SNOW CANON CITY 38.45N 105.22W
02/06/2012 M3.0 INCH FREMONT CO PUBLIC

RELAYED BY MEDIA.

0752 PM SNOW CANON CITY 38.45N 105.22W
02/06/2012 M1.0 INCH FREMONT CO PUBLIC

RELAYED BY MEDIA.

0705 PM SNOW 4 WNW BUENA VISTA 38.86N 106.20W
02/06/2012 M1.0 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

BEGAN AT 330 PM. STILL LIGHTLY SNOWING.


&&

THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEET
CATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THE
FINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.


SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT

INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME
------ ----------------------- -- -------------- -------
3.00 CANON CITY CO FREMONT 0922 PM
RELAYED BY MEDIA.
3.00 FLORENCE CO FREMONT 0922 PM
RELAYED BY MEDIA.
1.00 4 WNW BUENA VISTA CO CHAFFEE 0705 PM
BEGAN AT 330 PM. STILL LIGHTLY SNOWING.
1.00 CANON CITY CO FREMONT 0752 PM
RELAYED BY MEDIA.

$$

KT

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KPUB [070434]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KPUB 070434
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
933 PM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0922 PM SNOW FLORENCE 38.39N 105.12W
02/06/2012 M3.0 INCH FREMONT CO PUBLIC

RELAYED BY MEDIA.

0922 PM SNOW CANON CITY 38.45N 105.22W
02/06/2012 M3.0 INCH FREMONT CO PUBLIC

RELAYED BY MEDIA.

0752 PM SNOW CANON CITY 38.45N 105.22W
02/06/2012 M1.0 INCH FREMONT CO PUBLIC

RELAYED BY MEDIA.

0705 PM SNOW 4 WNW BUENA VISTA 38.86N 106.20W
02/06/2012 M1.0 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

BEGAN AT 330 PM. STILL LIGHTLY SNOWING.


&&

$$

KT

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KPUB [070433]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 070433
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
933 PM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0922 PM SNOW FLORENCE 38.39N 105.12W
02/06/2012 M3.0 INCH FREMONT CO PUBLIC

RELAYED BY MEDIA.

0922 PM SNOW CANON CITY 38.45N 105.22W
02/06/2012 M3.0 INCH FREMONT CO PUBLIC

RELAYED BY MEDIA.


&&

$$

KT

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KPUB [070255]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 070255
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
754 PM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 PM SNOW 4 WNW BUENA VISTA 38.86N 106.20W
02/06/2012 M1.0 INCH CHAFFEE CO TRAINED SPOTTER

BEGAN AT 330 PM. STILL LIGHTLY SNOWING.

0752 PM SNOW CANON CITY 38.45N 105.22W
02/06/2012 M1.0 INCH FREMONT CO PUBLIC

RELAYED BY MEDIA.


&&

$$

KT

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KHNX [070146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 070146
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
546 PM PST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0341 PM DUST STORM LAMONT 35.26N 118.91W
02/06/2012 KERN CA BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 1 INJ *** LOCAL MEDIA REPORTED A SCHOOL BUS AND A BIG
RIG COLLIDED. GUSTY WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35-40 MPH
CONTRIBUTED TO VISIBILITY NEAR ZERO AND NEARBY FRESHLY
PLOWED FIELDS. ONE INJURY REPORTED.


&&

$$

JBRO

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KGJT [070053]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 070053
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
553 PM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0515 PM SNOW 5 W PAGOSA SPRINGS 37.27N 107.10W
02/06/2012 E4.0 INCH ARCHULETA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200094

$$

MALEKSA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070050
SWODY1
SPC AC 070048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 PM CST MON FEB 06 2012

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CANADA AND
THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS...WHILE LOWER AMPLITUDE WLYS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
IS PROGGED OVER MOST OF THE U.S. OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A WEAK/DIFFUSE
FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.

SHOWERS AND AN EMBEDDED/WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CONTINUE ACROSS NRN
FL ATTM INVOF THIS REMNANT FRONT...BUT DOWNWARD TREND WITH RESPECT
TO CONVECTIVE INTENSITY HAS BEEN NOTED. ATTM...EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE...AS WEAK SHORT-WAVE RIDGING INCREASES ACROSS FL AHEAD OF
AN ENEWD-MOVING VORT MAX OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...INLAND THUNDER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 02/07/2012

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KHGX [070019]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KHGX 070019
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
618 PM CST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM TORNADO SNOOK 30.49N 96.47W
02/03/2012 BURLESON TX NWS STORM SURVEY

TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN SNOOK DAMAGING NUMEROUS HOMES
UPROOTING TREES AND DESTROYING SEVERAL BARNS AND METAL
SHEDS. STORM WAS ON THE GROUND FOR ABOUT 2MILES AND A

PATH WIDTH AROUND 75 YARDS. THE TORNADO WAS RATED AN EF1.

0650 PM TORNADO 2 NE SNOOK 30.51N 96.44W
02/03/2012 BURLESON TX NWS STORM SURVEY

TORNADO TOUCHED ABOUT 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF SNOOK AND DID
MAJOR DAMAGE TO A LARGE METAL BUILDING. THE TORNADO ALSO
MOVED AND FLIPPED AN AUTOMOBILE ABOUT 50 YARDS. 5
EIGHTEEN WHEELER TRAILERS WERE TOSSED ABOUT 100 YARDS
INTO A PECAN PLANTATION. A PICTURE OF THE TORNADO WAS
TAKEN FROM ABOUT 3 MILES TO THE WNW. THE WIDTH OF THE
TORNADO WAS ABOUT 75 YARDS WAS ON THE GROUND ABOUT 2
MILES. IT IS RATED AS AN EF2.


&&

$$

GHAFELE

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KHGX [070018]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 070018
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
617 PM CST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM TORNADO SNOOK 30.49N 96.47W
02/03/2012 BURLESON TX NWS STORM SURVEY

TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN SNOOK DAMAGING NUMEROUS HOMES
UPROOTING TREES AND DESTROYING SEVERAL BARNS AND METAL
SHEDS. STORM WAS ON THE GROUND FOR ABOUT 2MILES AND A

PATH WIDTH AROUND 75 YARDS. THE TORNADO WAS RATED AN EF1.

0650 PM TORNADO 2 NE SNOOK 30.51N 96.44W
02/03/2012 BURLESON TX NWS STORM SURVEY

TORNADO TOUCHED ABOUT 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF SNOOK AND DID
MAJOR DAMAGE TO A LARGE METAL BUILDING. THE TORNADO ALSO
MOVED AND FLIPPED AN AUTOMOBILE ABOUT 50 YARDS. 5
EIGHTEEN WHEELER TRAILERS WERE TOSSED ABOUT 100 YARDS
INTO A PECAN PLANTATION. A PICTURE OF THE TORNADO WAS
TAKEN FROM ABOUT 3 MILES TO THE WNW. THE WIDTH OF THE
TORNADO WAS ABOUT 75 YARDS WAS ON THE GROUND ABOUT 2
MILES. IT IS RATED AS AN EF2.


&&

$$

GHAFELE

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KGJT [062123]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 062123
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
223 PM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 4 ESE NORWOOD 38.11N 108.22W
02/06/2012 M5.8 INCH SAN MIGUEL CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200093

$$

MALEKSA

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KGJT [062122]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 062122
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
222 PM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 10 WNW CORTEZ 37.41N 108.75W
02/06/2012 M4.2 INCH MONTEZUMA CO COCORAHS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL.


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200092

$$

MALEKSA

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KGJT [062121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 062121
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
221 PM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1203 PM SNOW COAL BANK PASS 37.70N 107.78W
02/06/2012 M7.5 INCH SAN JUAN CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL WITH 0.5 INCHES LIQUID


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200091

$$

MALEKSA

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KGJT [062121]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 062121
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
220 PM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1203 PM SNOW MOLAS PASS 37.73N 107.70W
02/06/2012 M5.0 INCH SAN JUAN CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL WITH 0.4 INCHES LIQUID.


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200090

$$

MALEKSA

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KGJT [062119]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 062119
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
219 PM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1203 PM SNOW RED MOUNTAIN PASS 37.90N 107.70W
02/06/2012 M3.0 INCH OURAY CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL WITH 0.3 INCHES LIQUID.


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200089

$$

MALEKSA

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KGJT [062116]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 062116
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
216 PM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 9 NNW PAGOSA SPRINGS 37.39N 107.08W
02/06/2012 M7.8 INCH ARCHULETA CO COCORAHS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200088

$$

MALEKSA

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KGJT [062115]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 062115
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
215 PM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW DURANGO 37.29N 107.87W
02/06/2012 M7.9 INCH LA PLATA CO COCORAHS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200087

$$

MALEKSA

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KGJT [062114]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 062114
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
214 PM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 5 WSW DURANGO 37.26N 107.95W
02/06/2012 M10.4 INCH LA PLATA CO COCORAHS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200086

$$

MALEKSA

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KGJT [062113]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 062113
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
212 PM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 10 NNE DURANGO 37.42N 107.80W
02/06/2012 M9.0 INCH LA PLATA CO COCORAHS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200085

$$

MALEKSA

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KGJT [062112]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 062112
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
212 PM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 14 SSE PAGOSA SPRINGS 37.08N 106.92W
02/06/2012 M4.0 INCH ARCHULETA CO COCORAHS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200084

$$

MALEKSA

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KGJT [062110]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 062110
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
210 PM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 7 WSW PAGOSA SPRINGS 37.23N 107.14W
02/06/2012 M3.6 INCH ARCHULETA CO COCORAHS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200083

$$

MALEKSA

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061953
SWODY1
SPC AC 061951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST MON FEB 06 2012

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON...
A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS NOW CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE EN ROUTE TO
THE S CENTRAL TX. ASCENT AND WEAK BUOYANCY ROOTED NEAR OR ABOVE THE
700 MB PRESSURE LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

...CENTRAL/S FL THIS AFTERNOON...
A MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT ALONG AND S OF A
SLOW-MOVING SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL. THE MOST VIGOROUS
LIGHTNING-PRODUCING CONVECTION HAS THUS FAR REMAINED JUST OFF THE E
CENTRAL FL COAST...BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH CONVECTION ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING WILL RESULT
IN STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A DECREASE IN THE ALREADY
MARGINAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT.

...SW CO THIS AFTERNOON...
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SW CO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED
MIDLEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND
MINIMAL BUOYANCY SUGGEST THAT LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE UNLIKELY WITH
THIS CONVECTION.

..THOMPSON.. 02/06/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012/

...FL PENINSULA...
LATE MORNING COMPOSITE SATELLITE/SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA
OF LOWER PRESSURE/INVERTED TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE FL
STRAITS VICINITY. THIS AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE...AND A RESIDUAL
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GULF NEWD INTO THE
NRN PART OF THE FL PENINSULA...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. POCKETS OF HEATING
WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS /PW 1.75 INCHES PER 12Z S FL RAOBS/ WILL
YIELD WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION /UPWARDS OF 250-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE/--PERHAPS ENOUGH TO YIELD A STRONG WIND GUST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...NEGATING
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS AND THE INCLUSION OF LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.

...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER TX/NRN MEXICO WILL SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS AN UPSTREAM CLOSED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. MEAGER INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG MUCAPE /BASED NEAR 600 MB/ MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE RISK FOR A FEW TSTMS THIS AFTN.

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 061722
SWODY2
SPC AC 061721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA WILL PROGRESS QUICKLY
ESEWD OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED REINFORCING SURGE
OF CONTINENTAL AIR SPREADS SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES. FARTHER
S...A FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM S FL WWD ACROSS THE
SRN GULF OF MEXICO. LINGERING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL/S
FL WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING
THE DAY AS EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA EJECT EWD OVER N FL. FARTHER W...
A MOISTENING WAA PATTERN WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER S TX TOMORROW
NIGHT. THE LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTENING COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
WEAK INSTABILITY...THOUGH THE LIGHTNING RISK APPEARS MARGINAL AT
THIS TIME.

A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 33 N AND 134 W IS FORECAST TO DIG
SEWD JUST OFF THE SRN CA/NRN BAJA COAST TOMORROW. THE RICHEST
MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...AND WEAK
OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT THE PROSPECTS FOR SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY INLAND. NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONFIRM ONLY MINIMAL
BUOYANCY IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER...WITH RELATIVELY WARM EQUILIBRIUM
LEVEL HEIGHTS. THUS...THE PROSPECTS FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION INLAND
APPEAR TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT MAINTAINING A TSTM OUTLOOK AREA FOR
COASTAL SRN CA.

..THOMPSON.. 02/06/2012

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KPUB [061701]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 061701
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1001 AM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW 5 SSE CRESTONE 37.93N 105.67W
02/06/2012 M1.0 INCH SAGUACHE CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MN

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KPUB [061654]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 061654
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
954 AM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0953 AM SNOW BUENA VISTA 38.85N 106.14W
02/06/2012 M1.0 INCH CHAFFEE CO CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

$$

MN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061600
SWODY1
SPC AC 061558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0958 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL PENINSULA...
LATE MORNING COMPOSITE SATELLITE/SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA
OF LOWER PRESSURE/INVERTED TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE FL
STRAITS VICINITY. THIS AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE...AND A RESIDUAL
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GULF NEWD INTO THE
NRN PART OF THE FL PENINSULA...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. POCKETS OF HEATING
WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS /PW 1.75 INCHES PER 12Z S FL RAOBS/ WILL
YIELD WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION /UPWARDS OF 250-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE/--PERHAPS ENOUGH TO YIELD A STRONG WIND GUST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...NEGATING
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS AND THE INCLUSION OF LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.

...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER TX/NRN MEXICO WILL SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS AN UPSTREAM CLOSED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. MEAGER INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG MUCAPE /BASED NEAR 600 MB/ MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE RISK FOR A FEW TSTMS THIS AFTN.

..SMITH.. 02/06/2012

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KDDC [061551]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDDC 061551
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
951 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 PM SNOW WAKEENEY 39.02N 99.88W
02/03/2012 M6.0 INCH TREGO KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

THIS WAS REPORTED BY THE NESS COUNTY SHERIFF DEPARTMENT.

1030 PM SNOW RANSOM 38.64N 99.93W
02/03/2012 M2.0 INCH NESS KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0100 AM SNOW 4 N RANSOM 38.70N 99.94W
02/04/2012 M5.0 INCH TREGO KS PUBLIC

0100 AM SNOW 4 ESE PENDENNIS 38.63N 100.27W
02/04/2012 M4.0 INCH LANE KS PUBLIC

0100 AM SNOW 5 E PENDENNIS 38.66N 100.23W
02/04/2012 M3.0 INCH NESS KS PUBLIC

0100 AM SNOW 5 NE ARNOLD 38.69N 99.98W
02/04/2012 M5.0 INCH NESS KS PUBLIC

0100 AM SNOW 6 N ELLIS 39.03N 99.55W
02/04/2012 M4.0 INCH ELLIS KS PUBLIC

0600 AM SNOW 1 NNW ELLIS 38.95N 99.57W
02/04/2012 M1.5 INCH ELLIS KS TRAINED SPOTTER

FROM 6 AM TO 6 AM. 0.60 INCHES OF PRECIP.

1139 AM SNOW 8 N JETMORE 38.20N 99.89W
02/04/2012 M1.0 INCH HODGEMAN KS TRAINED SPOTTER

1130 PM SNOW 3 NNE VODA 39.08N 99.99W
02/04/2012 M9.3 INCH TREGO KS PUBLIC

WATER CONTENT FROM SNOW AND RAIN WAS 1.41 INCHES. SIX
INCHES OF SNOW STILL WAS ON THE GROUND AT 900 AM ON 6
FEBRUARY.


&&

$$

01

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KDDC [061550]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 061550
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
950 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM SNOW 3 NNE VODA 39.08N 99.99W
02/04/2012 M9.3 INCH TREGO KS PUBLIC

WATER CONTENT FROM SNOW AND RAIN WAS 1.41 INCHES. SIX
INCHES OF SNOW STILL WAS ON THE GROUND AT 900 AM ON 6
FEBRUARY.


&&

$$

01

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KGJT [061538]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 061538
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
838 AM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM HEAVY SNOW NORWOOD 38.13N 108.29W
02/06/2012 M6.1 INCH SAN MIGUEL CO CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200082

$$

TB

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KGJT [061509]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 061509
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
809 AM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0805 AM HEAVY SNOW LEWIS 37.50N 108.67W
02/06/2012 M7.0 INCH MONTEZUMA CO CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200081

$$

TB

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KGJT [061505]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 061505
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
805 AM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM HEAVY SNOW DOVE CREEK 37.77N 108.91W
02/06/2012 M6.0 INCH DOLORES CO CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HOUR SNOWFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200080

$$

TB

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KPUB [061503]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 061503
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
803 AM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0712 AM SNOW 1 NNW MONARCH PASS 38.51N 106.33W
02/06/2012 M1.0 INCH CHAFFEE CO PUBLIC

REPORTED BY MONARCH SKI PATROL IN PAST 24 HOURS.

0715 AM SNOW 1 SSE WOLF CREEK PASS 37.47N 106.79W
02/06/2012 M15.0 INCH MINERAL CO PUBLIC

REPORTED BY WOLF CREEK SKI PATROL IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.


&&

$$

MN

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KGJT [061459]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 061459
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
759 AM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 4 WSW DURANGO 37.26N 107.94W
02/06/2012 M7.5 INCH LA PLATA CO COCORAHS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200079

$$

TB

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KGJT [061458]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 061458
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
758 AM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 1 W NORWOOD 38.13N 108.31W
02/06/2012 M4.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL CO COCORAHS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200078

$$

TB

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KGJT [061457]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 061457
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
757 AM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0710 AM SNOW DURANGO 37.29N 107.87W
02/06/2012 E5.0 INCH LA PLATA CO BROADCAST MEDIA

24 HOUR SNOWFALL


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200077

$$

TB

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KGJT [061316]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 061316
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
615 AM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0556 AM SNOW 18 NNE DURANGO 37.53N 107.74W
02/06/2012 M8.0 INCH LA PLATA CO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

24 HOUR SNOWFALL FROM HAVILAND LAKE AREA


&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1200076

$$

TB

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KPUB [061308]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 061308
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
608 AM MST MON FEB 06 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0501 AM SNOW ALAMOSA 37.47N 105.87W
02/06/2012 M1.1 INCH ALAMOSA CO TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061257
SWODY1
SPC AC 061255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BELT OF MODERATE TO STRONG ZONAL FLOW NOW OVER S CNTRL/SE CANADA
WILL MOVE S INTO THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS AND NEW ENGLAND
THIS PERIOD AS AMPLIFIED BLOCK PERSISTS OVER WRN CANADA. THIS
PATTERN WILL FORCE GRT BASIN UPR LOW TO BEGIN PROGRESSING E TOWARD
THE CNTRL HI PLNS...AND IL/IND UPR LOW TO MOVE E INTO MD/DE.
FARTHER S...LOW AMPLITUDE WSW FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM NRN MEXICO TO
THE S ATLANTIC CST. AT LWR LVLS...COLD/STNRY FRONT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE OVER THE CNTRL/NRN FL PENINSULA...AS A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS NEWD FROM THE FL STRAITS TO OFF THE
FL/GA CST.

...FL PENINSULA AND KEYS TODAY/TNGT...
COMBINATION OF MODEST BUOYANCY WITH SHALLOW CONVERGENCE ALONG
WEAKENING FRONT OVER CNTRL/NRN FL...AND WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH BROAD
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH OVER S FL...WILL SUPPORT ISOLD TO WDLY SCTD
DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS TODAY. ALTHOUGH MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL
REMAIN WEAK...PW AOA 1.50 INCHES AND SFC HEATING MAY YIELD POCKETS
OF SBCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...WHILE WEAK DEEP WINDS WILL
LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE...WATER LOADING/HI PW MAY FOSTER
A FEW STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. BACKED LOW LVL WINDS WILL EXIST
THROUGH THE DAY IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER FAR S FL AND THE FL
STRAITS...IN NE QUADRANT OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW. WHILE THE LOW WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION...ATTM IT DOES NOT
APPEAR THAT LOW LVL WIND FIELD WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO POSE AN
APPRECIABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES.

...S TX TODAY/THIS EVE...
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ATOP A POST-FRONTAL COLD DOME AS A
PLUME OF MID/HIGH LVL MOISTURE STREAMS ENE ACROSS REGION. WEAK
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSES IN THIS FLOW MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODIC AREAS OF MAINLY WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION.
WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...SVR
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

...FOUR CORNERS/WRN CO THIS AFTN...
DAYTIME HEATING AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD TO
WDLY SCTD DIURNAL CONVECTION BENEATH MID LVL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED
WITH GRT BASIN UPR LOW. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT COOL PROFILES AND VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP
SUCH ACTIVITY ISOLD.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 02/06/2012

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 060956
SWOD48
SPC AC 060955

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
00Z/6TH BASED MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL TREND SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE/LESS AMPLIFIED
THROUGH THE MID/LATE PART OF THE WEEK...WITH A LOW LATITUDE UPPER
TROUGH GRADUALLY CROSSING NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH DAYS 4-6 /THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY/. GIVEN A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF PERSISTENT/EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ASSOCIATED COLD/CONTINENTAL
TRAJECTORIES...A CONSEQUENTIAL SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS UNLIKELY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS...NO 30 PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE AREAS
ARE CURRENTLY WARRANTED.

..GUYER.. 02/06/2012

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 060803
SWODY3
SPC AC 060802

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO WEDNESDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP/COLD VORTEX CENTERED NEAR HUDSON
BAY...WITH A LOWER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO CROSSING THE OH
VALLEY VICINITY. BENEATH A NORTHERN ROCKIES/WESTERN CANADA UPPER
RIDGE...A LOW-LATITUDE/CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER BAJA MEXICO. THE PREVALENCE OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD/DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT TSTM
POTENTIAL...WITH A VIRTUALLY NIL SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL CONUS-WIDE.
ANY TSTM POTENTIAL...ALBEIT LIKELY TO BE A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY...WILL BE RELEGATED TO FAR SOUTH TX AND/OR SOUTH FL ON
WEDNESDAY.

..GUYER.. 02/06/2012

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 060700
SWODY2
SPC AC 060659

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON TUESDAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP VORTEX CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY.
AMPLIFIED/SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CONUS/CANADA...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM PORTION OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CA COAST.

...SOUTH FL...
WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTH OF A STALLED
FRONT...AT LEAST A FEW TSTMS MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FL...AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY
NIGHT. RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES/BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A
SEVERE RISK.

...COASTAL CA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...
A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WEAKENING LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ATTENDANT TO
THE UPPER LOW...ALONG WITH LIMITED MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION IN
INLAND AREAS...ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE RISK.

...FAR SOUTH TX TUESDAY NIGHT...
AMID SHORTWAVE RIDGING/NEBULOUS LARGE SCALE INFLUENCES...WEAK
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW TSTMS TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY FOR FAR SOUTH TX COASTAL AREAS/OFFSHORE WATERS.

..GUYER.. 02/06/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060538
SWODY1
SPC AC 060536

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST SUN FEB 05 2012

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN AND CNTRL
ROCKIES WILL BEGIN PROGRESSING EWD TOWARD THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A ZONE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS SWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH ALSO
MOVING SWD INTO THE N-CNTRL/NERN CONUS. FARTHER EAST...A
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM PARTS OF SRN
IL/IND TOWARD THE EAST COAST. TO THE SOUTH OF THESE
FEATURES...LOW-AMPLITUDE WSWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM NRN MEXICO TO
THE S ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SFC...A FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY AND INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE OVER THE CNTRL/NRN FL
PENINSULA...WHILE A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE STRAITS OF
FL...THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE NWRN CARIBBEAN SEA.

...FL PENINSULA AND KEYS TODAY/TONIGHT...
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND BANDS OF CONVERGENCE AROUND THE BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AMIDST A PREDOMINANTLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAINTENANCE
OF A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...FEATURING PW VALUES IN EXCESS
OF 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL PER BLENDED AMSU/SSMI DATA...WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WHILE
A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OWING TO WATER-LOADING
PROCESSES...CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION THUS LIMITING THE STRENGTH OF CONVECTION.
FURTHERMORE...THE PRESENCE OF WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO PREVENT CONVECTION FROM ATTAINING ANY APPRECIABLE
ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THIS FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT...TRACK...
AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...FOR WHICH SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. IF THE LOW INTENSIFIES AND ATTENDANT CYCLONIC
FLOW STRENGTHENS...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY IMPACT THE FL KEYS AND
PARTS OF SOUTH FL. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO
HIGH FOR THE INTRODUCTION OF ANY SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM.

...SRN TX TODAY/THIS EVENING...
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST ATOP A POST-FRONTAL COLD
DOME...AS A PLUME OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE IS MAINTAINED
ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH MINOR MID-LEVEL
IMPULSES CROSSING THE AREA MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED/WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION...AND AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO BE SUFFICIENTLY LOW SUCH THAT THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE NOT
WARRANTED ATTM.

...FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
CYCLONE...LIMITED LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND A WEAK IMPULSE
PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING PEAK
HEATING. WHILE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...VERY LIMITED BUOYANCY SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT SUFFICIENTLY LOW
SUCH THAT A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA IS NOT CURRENTLY WARRANTED.

..COHEN/GOSS.. 02/06/2012

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KSHV [060510]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 060510
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1110 PM CST SUN FEB 05 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1043 AM FLASH FLOOD MONROE 32.51N 92.08W
02/04/2012 OUACHITA LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

A HOUSE AT 323 CEDARBROOK DRIVE IN MONROE WAS FLOODED DUE
TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. OTHER STREETS THROUGHOUT MONROE
WERE FLOODED AS WELL.


&&

$$

15

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