SWODY1
SPC AC 110058
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CST SAT DEC 10 2011
VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SWRN THROUGH S-CNTRL TX...
VORT MAX CENTERED NEAR THE BIG BEND AREA OF SWRN TX WILL CONTINUE
EWD TONIGHT. DEEP ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE RESULTED IN DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SWRN TX ALONG WRN EDGE OF A BROADER
RAIN SHIELD AS IT INTERACTED WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE
STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AS THE IMPULSE ADVANCES INTO SRN TX.
THOUGH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY IN CORRIDOR
FROM LAREDO TO DEL RIO...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN
10%.
...SRN FL...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST IN VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS CNTRL THROUGH SRN FL THIS EVENING. THE 00Z MIAMI AND
TAMPA RAOBS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF VERY SKINNY CAPE FROM NEAR THE
SURFACE TO 250 MB. HOWEVER...MODEST CAPPING INVERSIONS WERE EVIDENT
NEAR 850 MB ON THE MIAMI SOUNDING AND AT 700 MB ON THE TAMPA RAOB.
WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND APPARENT LACK OF A SOURCE FOR
DEEPER ASCENT...IT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR PARCELS
TOO BREACH THESE INVERSIONS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SHALLOW...THOUGH VERY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
..DIAL.. 12/11/2011
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