KDLH [080244]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 080244
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
844 PM CST WED NOV 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM SNOW 10 NE GRAND MARAIS 47.86N 90.19W
11/07/2007 M3.0 INCH COOK MN TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTED AT TROUT LAKE RESORT

&&

$$

STEWART

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 080051
SWODY1
SPC AC 080049

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 PM CST WED NOV 07 2007

VALID 080100Z - 081200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE WEST.

WITH RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE E OF THE ROCKIES IN THE
WAKE OF THE PRIOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
PREVAILING ACROSS THE WEST...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

.GOSS.. 11/08/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071902
SWODY1
SPC AC 071900

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 PM CST WED NOV 07 2007

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE COLD CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S.
SURFACE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...MUCH AS PROGGED BY
MODELS...AND ITS HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THURSDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
RETURN IS NOT IMMINENT. AND...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED IMPULSE
CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES...MODELS INDICATE
THAT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD AND BEYOND. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY/STABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRATIFICATION EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALSO NEGLIGIBLE BENEATH
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST.

.KERR.. 11/07/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 071712
SWODY2
SPC AC 071710

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CST WED NOV 07 2007

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH AT LEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD...
WITH A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MOST AREAS FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE EXIT REGION OF A VERY STRONG ZONAL PACIFIC
JET IS PROGGED TO NOSE TOWARD PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTAL AREAS. THIS
LIKELY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE PROGRESSION OF A SIGNIFICANT
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...AND A DEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE....INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY FRIDAY. AT
THE SAME TIME...A PREVIOUSLY CUT OFF LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EASTWARD WITHIN THE WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM...TOWARD SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS.

..PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEP SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST...MODELS
INDICATE THAT A STRENGTHENING ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP
THURSDAY EVENING TO THE WEST OF THE NORTHERN OREGON/WASHINGTON
CASCADES. AS THIS OCCURS...OROGRAPHIC FORCING MAY ENHANCE LIFT
ALONG AN INLAND ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE. AND...THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE
TO WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS...
THOUGH...SUGGEST THAT LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY NOT STEEPEN
SUBSTANTIALLY TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS MEETING MINIMUM
10% PROBABILITY THRESHOLD. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED POCKETS OF
DEVELOPING CAPE...WITHIN FAVORABLY COLD MID-LEVELS FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION AND CLOUD ELECTRIFICATION...COULD YIELD AN OCCASIONAL
ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKE.

.KERR.. 11/07/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071626
SWODY1
SPC AC 071625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CST WED NOV 07 2007

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
.EVANS/GRAMS.. 11/07/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071615
SWODY1
SPC AC 071612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CST WED NOV 07 2007

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
.EVANS/GRAMS.. 11/07/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071250
SWODY1
SPC AC 071248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST WED NOV 07 2007

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
BROAD TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S...DOWNSTREAM
FROM TANDEM UPR LOW/RIDGE OVER THE CA COASTAL WATERS AND AZ/NM.
DEEP GRT LKS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES E INTO SE
CANADA...WHILE UPSTREAM IMPULSE NOW IN MANITOBA CONTINUES SE TO THE
UPR GRT LKS WITH MINIMAL AMPLIFICATION.

RECENT INVASION OF CP AIR OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN STATES WILL LIMIT
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE NATION. LINGERING LK EFFECT
SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY...WITH DRY AND/OR SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS
LIMITING THUNDER THREAT ELSEWHERE.

.CORFIDI/CROSBIE.. 11/07/2007

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KAPX [071218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 071218
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
718 AM EST WED NOV 07 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 11 N LAKE CITY 44.49N 85.21W
11/07/2007 M1.5 INCH MISSAUKEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HR TOTAL THRU 7 AM.

&&

$$

JZ

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 070857
SWOD48
SPC AC 070856

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 AM CST WED NOV 07 2007

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A PLAINS
LOW-LEVEL JET EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION AS A SFC
LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE SEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT IN THE PLAINS
AND MS VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THE SYSTEM
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION DEEPER AND THE ECMWF
SOLUTION FASTER. THIS PRESENTS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE LOCATION
AND DAY OF GREATEST STORM COVERAGE. IN ADDITION...THE GFS KEEPS THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY OFF THE TX COAST WITH ONLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY
FORECAST IN THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY. FOR THIS REASON...THE THREAT
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS UNCLEAR ATTM.

.BROYLES.. 11/07/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 070728
SWODY3
SPC AC 070726

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 AM CST WED NOV 07 2007

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EWD
INTO THE PLAINS STATES FRIDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE SFC...A LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND THIS WILL BRING SLY FLOW TO THE SRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
CNTRL TX COAST AND THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD KEEP THE ACTIVITY VERY ISOLATED AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS
NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

.BROYLES.. 11/07/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 070555
SWODY2
SPC AC 070554

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST TUE NOV 06 2007

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CONUS
FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD INTO THE MS VALLEY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THURSDAY. AT THE SFC...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE SERN U.S. WILL WEAKEN...ALLOWING SLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN RISING SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE TX COASTAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...FORCING WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEAK AND INSTABILITY IS NOT FORECAST
TO INCREASE ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. THIS ALONG WITH VERY WEAK
CONVERGENCE WILL MAKE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY ACROSS TX.
ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CONUS.

.BROYLES.. 11/07/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070542
SWODY1
SPC AC 070540

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST TUE NOV 06 2007

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
UPR FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS MOST
OF THE ERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE FCST PD WITH WEAK RIDGING
ACROSS THE DESERT SW. GRTLKS IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH
WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO SERN CANADA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AS THIS
OCCURS...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
BY WED AFTN...WITH THE UPSTREAM ANTICYCLONE BUILDING EWD FROM THE
MID-MS VLY. ASIDE FROM LINGERING LK EFFECT SHOWERS TO THE LEE OF
LKS ONTARIO/ERIE EARLY IN THE DAY...DRY/STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
REST OF THE COUNTRY WILL PRECLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION.

.RACY.. 11/07/2007

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