Wednesday, November 7, 2007

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071902
SWODY1
SPC AC 071900

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 PM CST WED NOV 07 2007

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE COLD CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S.
SURFACE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...MUCH AS PROGGED BY
MODELS...AND ITS HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z THURSDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
RETURN IS NOT IMMINENT. AND...ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED IMPULSE
CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST STATES...MODELS INDICATE
THAT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD AND BEYOND. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN DRY/STABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRATIFICATION EAST OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALSO NEGLIGIBLE BENEATH
LARGE-SCALE RIDGING ACROSS THE WEST.

.KERR.. 11/07/2007

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