KOUN [270353]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 270353
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1053 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1004 PM TSTM WND GST MEEKER 35.50N 96.89W
04/26/2013 E60 MPH LINCOLN OK PUBLIC

ALSO PING PONG SIZED HAIL. WINDOWS BROKE OUT OF HOUSES.


&&

$$

MDAY

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KOUN [270352]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 270352
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1052 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0838 PM HAIL 1 S ALFALFA 35.20N 98.61W
04/26/2013 M2.00 INCH CADDO OK NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

$$

MDAY

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KOUN [270349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 270349
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1049 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0941 PM HAIL CHICKASHA 35.04N 97.95W
04/26/2013 E1.00 INCH GRADY OK AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

MDAY

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KOUN [270348]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 270348
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1048 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 PM HAIL 2 N ANADARKO 35.09N 98.24W
04/26/2013 E1.00 INCH CADDO OK AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

MDAY

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KLIX [270348]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 270348
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1047 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1150 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW KENNER 30.00N 90.27W
04/24/2013 JEFFERSON LA PUBLIC

METAL WARE HOUSE DOOR BLOWN IN ON PIEDMONT ST. REPORT VIA
SOCIAL MEDIA.

1150 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNW KENNER 30.00N 90.26W
04/24/2013 JEFFERSON LA PUBLIC

5 POWER POLES SNAPPED ON ACRON ST. REPORT VIA SOCIAL
MEDIA.

1150 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNE KENNER 30.01N 90.24W
04/24/2013 JEFFERSON LA PUBLIC

LARGE LIMBS GREATER THAN 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER SNAPPED OF
TREES ALONG IDAHO ST. REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

1151 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 NE KENNER 30.00N 90.22W
04/24/2013 JEFFERSON LA PUBLIC

METAL FRAME PATIO BLOWN OVER ON N. SIBLEY ST. REPORT VIA
SOCIAL MEDIA.

1153 AM TSTM WND DMG METAIRIE 30.00N 90.18W
04/24/2013 JEFFERSON LA PUBLIC

FLAG POLE SNAPPED NEAR TRANSCONTINENTAL DRIVE AND WEST
METAIRIE. REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

1159 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 SSW NEW ORLEANS 29.96N 90.09W
04/24/2013 ORLEANS LA PUBLIC

TREE DOWN ACROSS STREET ALONG WASHINGTON AVE BETWEEN JEFF
DAVIS AND BROADWAY ST.


&&

$$

CBANNAN

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KTSA [270344]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 270344
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1043 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1037 PM HAIL CASTLE 35.47N 96.38W
04/26/2013 E1.75 INCH OKFUSKEE OK TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND GUST OF 59 MPH ALSO REPORTED.


&&

$$

RJS

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KOUN [270343]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 270343
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1043 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 PM HAIL EDMOND 35.65N 97.48W
04/26/2013 E1.50 INCH OKLAHOMA OK NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

$$

MDAY

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KOUN [270338]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 270338
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1037 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 PM HAIL EDMOND 35.65N 97.48W
04/26/2013 E2.50 INCH OKLAHOMA OK PUBLIC


&&

$$

MDAY

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KOUN [270335]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 270335
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1035 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0848 PM HAIL 5 NW OKLAHOMA CITY 35.52N 97.58W
04/26/2013 E1.75 INCH OKLAHOMA OK TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MDAY

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KOUN [270334]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 270334
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1034 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0842 PM HAIL 3 NNW BETHANY 35.55N 97.66W
04/26/2013 E1.25 INCH OKLAHOMA OK TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MDAY

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KMEG [270331]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 270331
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1031 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1027 PM FLASH FLOOD JACKSON 35.63N 88.83W
04/26/2013 MADISON TN BROADCAST MEDIA

FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF CHRISTMASVILLE ROAD.


&&

$$

JAB

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KMEG [270326]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 270326
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1026 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 PM FLASH FLOOD JACKSON 35.63N 88.83W
04/26/2013 MADISON TN BROADCAST MEDIA

CORNER OF SKYLINE AND SUMNAR DRIVE ADJACENT TO THE
JACKSON/MADISON COUNTY HOSPITAL IS FLOODED.


&&

$$

JAB

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0560

ACUS11 KWNS 270323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270323
TXZ000-OKZ000-270530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0560
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL...SRN...AND ERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 140...

VALID 270323Z - 270530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 140
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEVERE LEVELS FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS AS THEY CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS OK. HAIL AND
WIND WILL BOTH BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST PROFILER DATA OUT OF PURCELL SHOWS A HODOGRAPH
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. AREAS OF ROTATION HAVE BEEN NOTED AT
TIMES WITH SOME CELLS...BUT THEY ALSO APPEAR TO BE GETTING UNDERCUT
QUICKLY BY SURGING OUTFLOW WHICH HAS LIMITED TORNADO POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...DRIVEN BY FAST STORM
MOTIONS AND COLD HAIL-LADEN DOWNDRAFTS.

..JEWELL.. 04/27/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33629451 34049807 35629809 35259456 33629451

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KLIX [270256]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLIX 270256
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
956 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1151 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 NNE KENNER 30.00N 90.23W
04/24/2013 JEFFERSON LA NEWSPAPER

STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO NEW CONSTRUCTION AT CORNER OR
VETERANS AND ROOSEVELT BLVD.


&&

$$

CBANNAN

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KLIX [270250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KLIX 270250
LSRLIX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
950 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1200 PM TORNADO METAIRIE 30.00N 90.18W
04/24/2013 F0 JEFFERSON LA NWS STORM SURVEY

*** 2 INJ *** SURVEY CONFIRMED TORNADO TOUCH DOWN NEAR
INTERSECTION OF MEDOWDALE AND KENT...DOWNING A TREE ONTO
A CAR. IT MOVED SE THROUGH THE INTERSECTION OF
TRANSCONTINENTAL AND VETERANS SNAPPING A FEW SMALL TREES
AND OVERTURNING A LARGE TRUCK. IT CONTINUED SE CAUSING
DAMAGE TO MOSTLY TREES AND SOME MINOR ROOF DAMAGE BEFORE
LIFTING NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF N WOODLAWN AND W
METAIRIE. ESTIMATED WINDS 75 MPH...2 MI LONG...75 YDS
WIDE. TIME APPROXIMATE.


&&

$$

CBANNAN

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KSGF [270247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 270247
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
947 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0850 PM FLOOD 5 NNE MANSFIELD 37.17N 92.54W
04/26/2013 WRIGHT MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

MODOT REPORTS THAT HWY AB AT WOLF CREEK IS FLOODED.

0850 PM FLOOD 3 S COMPETITION 37.44N 92.43W
04/26/2013 WRIGHT MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

MODOT REPORTS THAT ROUTE Z IS FLOODED AT ELK CREEK.


&&

$$

BOXELL

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 140

WWUS20 KWNS 270234
SEL0
SPC WW 270234
OKZ000-270900-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 140
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
930 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 930 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF CHICKASHA OKLAHOMA TO 75 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
MCALESTER OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 139...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA APPEAR LIKELY
TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH AT LEAST INTO THE 06-07Z TIME FRAME. STRONGEST
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND A FEW
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28035.


...KERR

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KCHS [270226]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 270226
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1026 PM EDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0948 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES 1 E CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.93W
04/26/2013 CHARLESTON SC TIDE GAGE

A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 7.13 FT MLLW WAS OBSERVED AT
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE. SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING TYPICALLY BEGINS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST WHEN TIDE LEVELS REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR.


&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1300223

$$

VB

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KHUN [270149]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 270149
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
849 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0841 PM HAIL 7 SSW TUSCUMBIA 34.65N 87.77W
04/26/2013 E0.50 INCH COLBERT AL EMERGENCY MNGR

DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY NEW BETHEL FIRE DEPARTMENT IN
THE 8700 BLOCK OF FRANKFORT ROAD.


&&

$$

AMIN

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KOUN [270144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 270144
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
844 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0837 PM HAIL 4 NNW BETHANY 35.56N 97.67W
04/26/2013 E1.25 INCH OKLAHOMA OK TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MDAY

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KOUN [270133]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 270133
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
833 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0832 PM HAIL 1 N COWDEN 35.26N 98.72W
04/26/2013 E1.75 INCH WASHITA OK TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MDAY

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KOUN [270132]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 270132
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
832 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0819 PM HAIL 3 N CLOUD CHIEF 35.29N 98.85W
04/26/2013 E2.00 INCH WASHITA OK TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MDAY

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KOUN [270130]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 270130
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
830 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0818 PM TSTM WND GST 2 E CONCHO 35.62N 97.96W
04/26/2013 M60 MPH CANADIAN OK TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.


&&

$$

MDAY

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KOUN [270128]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 270128
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
828 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 PM TSTM WND GST CONCHO 35.62N 98.00W
04/26/2013 E60 MPH CANADIAN OK PUBLIC


&&

$$

MDAY

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KOUN [270127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 270127
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
827 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 PM HAIL CONCHO 35.62N 98.00W
04/26/2013 E1.25 INCH CANADIAN OK PUBLIC


&&

$$

MDAY

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0559

ACUS11 KWNS 270100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270059
OKZ000-270300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0559
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139...

VALID 270059Z - 270300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 139
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD
ACROSS CNTRL OK AND EVENTUALLY E OF THE CURRENT WATCH. A NEW WW MAY
BE REQUIRED BY 03Z.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY EXISTS ALONG AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. COOLING
ALOFT AND DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MAINTAIN THESE STORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING DESPITE A RELATIVELY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
AS SEEN ON 00Z OUN SOUNDING. COUNTERACTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL
ALSO BE AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WITH 30-35 KT SLY FLOW EXPECTED.

THE STRONGEST CELL IS CURRENTLY ENTERING CANADIAN COUNTY WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND LIKELY. AT ITS CURRENT SPEED...THIS SEVERE
STORM WILL ENTER WRN OK COUNTY AROUND 845 PM CDT...AND DOWNTOWN OKC
AROUND 900 PM CDT WITH DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND. THIS CELL MAY
EVENTUALLY TURN RIGHT AS THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THE
PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT OF THE MOTION.

..JEWELL.. 04/27/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35219898 36029805 35409538 34889517 34389529 34059574
34009634 34519781 35219898

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 270100
SWODY1
SPC AC 270057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MAIN BODY OF OK EXCEPT NRN
PORTIONS...EXTREME WRN AR...RED RIVER REGION NEAR PRX...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES AROUND REGIME OF CENTRAL CONUS
TROUGHING. MAIN FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW
EVIDENT IN RAOB DATA...PROFILER...VWP AND MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
WRN IA/SERN NEB SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO ERN NM. PERTURBATION IS
FCST TO MOVE EWD THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...REACHING NRN MO...SERN
KS...WRN OK AND TX SOUTH-PLAINS REGION BY 12Z.

AT SFC...23Z ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW OVER FAR WRN OK NEAR TAIL END OF
CONVECTIVE BAND...WITH COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS SERN PANHANDLE OF TX
AND THAT PORTION OF ERN NM W LBB. DRYLINE INTERSECTED COLD FRONT
NEAR WHERE I-40 CROSSES TX/OK BORDER...AND EXTENDED SEWD ACROSS SWRN
OK BEFORE ARCHING SSWWD OVER ABI AREA. DRYLINE SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED
FOR CONVECTION AND WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY COLD FRONT FROM N-S WITH
TIME. WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW SEWD ACROSS DFW METROPLEX THEN
GENERALLY EWD TO SHV AREA...AND WAS BECOMING MORE ILL-DEFINED WITH
TIME. THIS BOUNDARY IS FCST TO MOVE NWD DIFFUSELY AND MERGE WITH
STG FRONT THAT EXTENDED NEAR JWG-OKC-ADH-TXK LINE. CENTRAL OK
PORTION OF LATTER BOUNDARY WAS DRIFTING SWWD...ITS BAROCLINICITY
HAVING BEEN REINFORCED BY EARLIER PRECIP/CLOUD COVER TO ITS NE.
SERN OK/WRN AR PORTION MAY MOVE NWD AFTER ABOUT 06Z...JUST PRIOR TO
ARRIVAL OF MCS.

...MAIN BODY OF OK...AND VICINITY...
BKN BAND OF SVR TSTMS WITH HISTORY OF DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED
SVR HAIL WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL OK WITH
CONTINUED PRIMARY RISKS OF WIND AND HAIL. REF SPC WW 139 AND
ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE DETAILED NEAR-TERM
GUIDANCE.

CHANNEL OF MOST FAVORABLE SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED
ATTM FROM EXISTING MCS SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN OK...MOSTLY
ALONG AND S OF CENTRAL OK FRONT. STG CAPPING EVIDENT IN 00Z FWD
RAOB SHOULD PERSIST...AND WILL LIMIT SRN EXTENT OF SVR/CONVECTIVE
THREAT. MEANWHILE...SFC-BASED POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED ON NRN END
BY CENTRAL/SERN OK BOUNDARY. PRIMARY CONCERN MORE THAN ABOUT 50 NM
N OF THAT FRONT...WILL BE HAIL...WHERE DEPTH/MAGNITUDE OF STATICALLY
STABLE LAYER SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ALLOWING SVR
GUSTS TO PENETRATE TO SFC. DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF MAIN BAND
APPEARS IMPROBABLE BECAUSE OF STG CAPPING EVIDENT OVER REGION...AND
RESULTING NECESSITY OF FORCED ASCENT FROM COMBINATION OF POSTFRONTAL
AIR AND CONVECTIVE COLD POOL.

OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 09Z OVER SERN
OK/WRN AR REGION...AS
1. BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND S OF FRONT DIABATICALLY STABILIZES TO
MORE UNFAVORABLE EXTENT AND
2. FOREGOING LLJ VEERS AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

..EDWARDS.. 04/27/2013

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KOUN [270049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 270049
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
749 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0743 PM HAIL GREENFIELD 35.73N 98.38W
04/26/2013 E1.00 INCH BLAINE OK PUBLIC


&&

$$

MDAY

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KOUN [270031]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 270031
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
731 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0729 PM HAIL 3 W CANUTE 35.43N 99.33W
04/26/2013 E0.88 INCH WASHITA OK PUBLIC


&&

$$

MDAY

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KSGF [270029]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 270029
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
729 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 PM FLOOD 8 SSE MOUNTAIN GROVE 37.04N 92.19W
04/26/2013 DOUGLAS MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

MODOT REPORTS THAT HWY EE IS CLOSED AT THE NORTH FORK
RIVER.


&&

$$

BOXELL

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KOUN [270013]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 270013
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
713 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0709 PM HAIL OAKWOOD 35.93N 98.70W
04/26/2013 E1.00 INCH DEWEY OK TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MDAY

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KOUN [262350]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 262350
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
650 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0649 PM HAIL 10 E SWEETWATER 35.42N 99.74W
04/26/2013 E1.25 INCH BECKHAM OK TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MDAY

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KOUN [262311]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 262311
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
611 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0605 PM TSTM WND GST 4 WNW CAMARGO 36.04N 99.35W
04/26/2013 M64 MPH DEWEY OK MESONET


&&

$$

OUN

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KMEG [262303]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 262303
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
603 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 PM HAIL RIPLEY 35.75N 89.53W
04/26/2013 E0.88 INCH LAUDERDALE TN TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL RANGED FROM DIME TO NICKEL SIZE.


&&

$$

JAB

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KAMA [262207]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 262207
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
507 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0340 PM TORNADO 6 N BOOKER 36.54N 100.54W
04/26/2013 BEAVER OK EMERGENCY MNGR

COLD AIR FUNNEL BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN.


&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1300420

$$

KRAUSE

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 139

WWUS20 KWNS 262039
SEL9
SPC WW 262039
OKZ000-270400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 139
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF GAGE OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF CHANDLER
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHWEST OK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THESE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29035.


...HART

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 262002
SWODY1
SPC AC 261959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OK...

...OK...
THE 1630Z OUTLOOK REMAINS ON TRACK ACROSS OK FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THUS NO CHANGES IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE
NEEDED WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE. THE 15Z HRRR REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH EARLIER STORM-SCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS USED IN THE PREVIOUS
OUTLOOK DISCUSSION SUGGESTING INITIALLY MORE DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOP
OVER NWRN INTO CENTRAL OK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO GROW
UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO ERN OK
AFTER 27/05Z.

EARLY-MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE OK PANHANDLE WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH
NWRN TO CENTRAL /N OF KOKC/ AND INTO EAST CENTRAL OK. GIVEN RECENT
BACKING WINDS TO GENERALLY ELY N OF THIS FRONT AND SLY TRAJECTORIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER SRN OK AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSIVE SURFACE LOW
WOULD SUGGEST THIS BOUNDARY MAY TEND TO BE MORE QUASI-STATIONARY
INTO THIS EVENING. THE LIGHTNING OVER SWRN KS INTO THE NRN TX
PANHANDLE IS INDICATIVE OF THE STRONGER ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

..PETERS.. 04/26/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2013/

...OK...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS TX/OK WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE 50S. LOW
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING OVER WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX...BUT
ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE BULK OF OK. THIS
WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND KEEP A SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION
IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z.

BY EARLY EVENING...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NM/TX TROUGH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE MOIST AXIS OVER OK. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CAP AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES OF 1500+
J/KG. FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IT APPEARS THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT TODAY.

THE SUITE OF STORM-SCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING /NAM
NESTS...NMM...NSSL...HRRR/ SHOW STRONG AGREEMENT IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF GREATEST RISK OF SUPERCELL STORMS THIS EVENING AFTER
00Z. THIS AREA OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OK HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A 30
PERCENT HAIL RISK.

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0558

ACUS11 KWNS 261957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261956
OKZ000-TXZ000-262230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0558
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL OK...FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 261956Z - 262230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS APPEAR LIKELY TO FORM BY 22-23Z
ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER AND DEVELOP SEWD INTO CNTRL OK THIS EVENING.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS
AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1011 MB CYCLONE IN THE
NRN TX PANHANDLE WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE EXTENDING S/SWWD TOWARDS
THE PECOS VALLEY. A WARM FRONT THAT IS BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY
EXTENDED E/SEWD INTO CNTRL OK TO THE ARKLATEX. CONVERGENCE ALONG
BOTH BOUNDARIES APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE THAT WILL TRACK EWD ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER...AS SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS SWRN
OK/NWRN TX. HERE...NEARLY FULL INSOLATION IS OCCURRING WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 70S INTO 80S AMIDST DEW POINTS
STILL RISING THROUGH 50S. THIS IS PROMOTING RAPID DESTABILIZATION
AND WILL YIELD WEAK TO EVENTUALLY MODERATE MIXED-LAYER BUOYANCY BY
EARLY EVENING.

12Z CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRF GUIDANCE ALONG WITH LATER MORNING HRRR
RUNS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH SIMULATING A BLOSSOMING OF
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY BY ABOUT 22Z. BASED ON CURRENT POSITION OF THE
SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...AND
INCREASING CU S ALONG THE DRYLINE...THIS SCENARIO APPEARS QUITE
REASONABLE. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED WITH
ELONGATED/NEARLY STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS FAVORING SPLITTING
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH MAIN THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
SEVERE WINDS.

..GRAMS/HART.. 04/26/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON 36500012 36679938 36349830 35889738 35599653 34999689
34629796 34489882 34800001 35220033 36130046 36500012

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KSGF [261842]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 261842
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
141 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0135 PM FLOOD 5 WSW MARSHFIELD 37.30N 92.99W
04/26/2013 WEBSTER MO EMERGENCY MNGR

SIX INCHES OF WATER OVER THE GREENWOOD ROAD LOW WATER
CROSSING AT THE POMME DE TERRE HEADWATERS.


&&

$$

JSS

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 261732
SWODY2
SPC AC 261730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
E TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND SOUTH/CENTRAL TX....

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DAY 1 SHOULD WEAKEN
SOME AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE LOWER OH AND LOWER MS VALLEYS...WITH
GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS...
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO TX. DESPITE A WEAKENING TREND OF
QUASI-ZONAL MIDLEVEL WLYS WITHIN THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH...A
BAND OF 40 KT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD EXTEND FROM FAR W TX THROUGH
CENTRAL TX TO THE NRN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND
SRN APPALACHIANS TO SC.

A SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED
INVOF THE OK/AR BORDER AT 12Z SATURDAY...AND TRACK TOWARD THE LOWER
OH VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM THE
LOW WILL SETTLE SWD INTO EAST AND CENTRAL TX...WHILE A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY MOVE ENEWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY.

...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
ELEVATED STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF AR EWD INTO
THE TN VALLEY. THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THIS REGION WILL HAVE
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR ADVECTED INTO THIS AREA WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE/ AS
DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES. ERN EXTENSION OF
THE EML WILL LIKELY HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH WARM SECTOR RESULTING IN
AT LEAST A MODEST CAP. HOWEVER...THE CAP WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WWD EXTENT OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT...BUT THIS
OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK. LLJ IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO
THE TN VALLEY EARLY IN PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD VORT MAX
EJECTING THROUGH ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH LEAVING WEAK AND
VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS IN WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE BELT OF
STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW WITHIN BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
STRONGER LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6 KM SHEAR. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR SOME UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE WITH STORM SPLITS ALSO POSSIBLE.
ATTENDANT THREATS FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXIST ACROSS THIS
AREA.

...EDWARDS PLATEAU/S TX INTO CNTRL TX...
CONFIDENCE IS GREATER WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS...AND COVERAGE
THEREOF...ACROSS THE SRN EXTENT OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO ADJACENT
S TX AS THE SURFACE FRONT SETTLES SWD INTO THIS REGION...AND ALSO
EXPECTED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME INTO NRN
COAHUILA. THIS IS BASED ON AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF...AND WARRANTS AN INCREASE IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND THE
INTRODUCTION OF A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. STEEP EML ALREADY IN
PLACE PER 12Z DRT SOUNDING WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO DAY 2...THOUGH IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS
AND DIABATIC HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR. THESE FACTORS WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH
FLOW IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER IS FORECAST TO BE VERY WEAK...WSWLY
MIDLEVEL WINDS UP TO 35-40 KT WILL RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...WITH STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS SUGGESTING SPLITTING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE...AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
TEND TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ENEWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX INVOF THE
FRONT...WITH SEVERE THREAT PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING UNTIL
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING INCREASES SURFACE BASED INHIBITION.

..PETERS.. 04/26/2013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261620
SWODY1
SPC AC 261618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OK...

...OK...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS TX/OK WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE 50S. LOW
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING OVER WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX...BUT
ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE BULK OF OK. THIS
WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND KEEP A SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION
IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z.

BY EARLY EVENING...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NM/TX TROUGH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE MOIST AXIS OVER OK. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CAP AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES OF 1500+
J/KG. FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IT APPEARS THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT TODAY.

THE SUITE OF STORM-SCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING /NAM
NESTS...NMM...NSSL...HRRR/ SHOW STRONG AGREEMENT IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF GREATEST RISK OF SUPERCELL STORMS THIS EVENING AFTER
00Z. THIS AREA OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OK HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A 30
PERCENT HAIL RISK.

..HART/GARNER.. 04/26/2013

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KCTP [261322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS51 KCTP 261322
LSRCTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
922 AM EDT FRI APR 26 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0451 PM TSTM WND DMG HUNTINGDON 40.50N 78.01W
04/24/2013 HUNTINGDON PA 911 CALL CENTER

TREES REPORTED DOWN ON COLD SPRINGS ROAD.


&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER CTP1300046

$$

EVANEGO

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261253
SWODY1
SPC AC 261251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS WRN/SRN OK AND ADJACENT N TX...

...SRN PLAINS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NE NM/SE CO WILL PROGRESS EWD
TO NW OK THIS EVENING AND THE OK/AR BORDER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...A REMNANT LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM SE CO
TO NW TX BY THIS EVENING...AND THE WEAK WAVE WILL CONTINUE EWD ALONG
THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS
UNDERWAY ACROSS TX...WITH 65-70 F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SPREADING
INLAND ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COAST. FARTHER NW...MOISTURE
IS MORE LIMITED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 40S FROM N TX INTO OK.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN/ERN OK WILL BE SLOW
TO WARM TODAY AS A RESULT OF LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE WAA
REGIME...OWING TO ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION. THERE WILL BE A
MARGINAL HAIL RISK WITH THE WAA STORMS THIS MORNING BASED ON THE
MUCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700 MB PER THE 12Z
FWD AND OUN SOUNDINGS. LATER TODAY...SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE TX
PANHANDLE/EXTREME WRN OK INTO NW TX...TO THE IMMEDIATE W-SW OF THE
ELEVATED CONVECTION AND NEAR A SHARPENING DRYLINE. SURFACE
HEATING/MIXING AND ASCENT NEAR THE DRYLINE/LEE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN
THE CAP SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
RELATIVELY COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN OK AND THE MOIST AXIS BEING
A BIT FARTHER TO THE E ALONG THE I-45 CORRIDOR WILL LIMIT THE
SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE STRONGER BUOYANCY AND THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN OK.
STILL...ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
SOMEWHAT STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS AND REASONABLY LARGE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WHERE BUOYANCY IS STRONGER.

FARTHER E ALONG THE RED RIVER...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER
THROUGH THE DAY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE.
HOWEVER...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES NOTED NEAR AND ABOVE 700 MB
ACROSS TX THIS MORNING. THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR
CONVECTION TO FORM AND/OR MOVE INTO SRN/CENTRAL OK BY EARLY TONIGHT
IN TANDEM WITH THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AS MOISTENING CONTINUES JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE STORMS TONIGHT WILL ALSO POSE A RISK FOR
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 04/26/2013

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 260857
SWOD48
SPC AC 260856

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

VALID 291200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
ERN HALF OF THE U.S. MUCH OF THE 4-8 PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANY
HIGHER COVERAGE SEVERE EVENTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED.

DAYS 4-5 A SERIES OF WEAK SRN STREAM VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL REMAIN
WELL DETACHED FROM BELT OF FASTER WLYS...AND AS A RESULT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE SERN STATES. BY DAY 6 A
NRN STREAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SEWD THROUGH NRN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY ACCOMPANIED BY A SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SERN STATES DAY 7. MODIFIED CP AIR
WILL RETURN NWD THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR RESULTING IN SOME
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POST FRONTAL RESULTING IN MODEST SHEAR
IN WARM SECTOR. WHILE SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OVERALL POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO WARRANT A 30% OR GREATER COVERAGE AREA.

..DIAL.. 04/26/2013

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 260732
SWODY3
SPC AC 260730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

SRN STREAM POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT
DRIFTS SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND SERN STATES ON SUNDAY.
ATTENDANT WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SERN STATES
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN. TRAILING PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL
LIFT NWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AS A WARM FRONT.

...S TX...

STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND
SPREAD EWD INTO SWRN TX AND THE RIO GRANDE. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF WEAKENING FRONT OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EWD AND WEAKENS...FLOW ALOFT
AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS THAN ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTIVE OF
MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLE MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. IT APPEARS
THAT LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY MIGHT BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STORMS TO PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

...NM THROUGH SWRN AND WRN TX...

A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ABOVE
INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS.
COVERAGE OF ANY SUCH EVENTS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE.

...GULF COASTAL STATES...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS A
PORTION OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES. FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A MARGINAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. WHILE A FEW STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS VERY MARGINAL.

..DIAL.. 04/26/2013

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 260602
SWODY2
SPC AC 260600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF ERN TX INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...

A SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND
EMBEDDED WITHIN A QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL MOVE TO THE
MID-LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
SLOWLY EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SERN STATES. SATURDAY MORNING A
COLD FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM WEAK SFC LOW OVER ARK SWWD THROUGH
NRN AND SWRN TX. WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND SEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AREA AND LIFT NEWD DURING THE DAY...WHILE THE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL TX
WHERE IT WILL LIKELY STALL OVERNIGHT.

...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...

ELEVATED STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF ARK EWD INTO
THE TN VALLEY. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH
THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE/ AS DIABATIC
WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMMENCES. ERN EXTENSION OF THE EML
WILL LIKELY HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH WARM SECTOR RESULTING IN AT LEAST
A MODEST CAP. HOWEVER...THE CAP WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZES AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF SEWD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LLJ IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
INTO THE TN VALLEY EARLY IN PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH LEAD VORT MAX
EJECTING THROUGH ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH LEAVING WEAK AND
VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS IN WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...BELT OF STRONGER
UPPER FLOW WITHIN BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40-50 KT
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6 KM SHEAR. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME
UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE WITH STORM SPLITS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...SWRN THROUGH CNTRL TX...

EML WILL HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH THE MOISTENING WARM SECTOR RESULTING
IN MODERATE INSTABILITY...BUT ALSO A CAP. COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD
TOWARD CNTRL TX DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EWD.
HOWEVER...FLOW IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER IS FORECAST TO BE VERY WEAK AND
THERE IS CONCERN THAT STORM COVERAGE COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
OTHER ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD ALSO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
MEXICO WITHIN DEEP BUT WEAK ELY UPSLOPE REGIME AND SPREAD INTO A
PORTIONS OF SWRN TX. THE TX WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WITH SHEAR PROFILES LARGELY SUPPORTIVE OF
MULTICELLS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE COVERAGE THIS OUTLOOK...BUT A PORTION OF
CNTRL AND SCNTRL TX MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK ONCE
STORM COVERAGE CONCERNS HAVE BEEN MITIGATED.

..DIAL.. 04/26/2013

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260534
SWODY1
SPC AC 260532

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS WRN TX/OK BORDER
REGION TO EXTREME WRN AR AND EXTREME NRN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN FCST ACROSS CONUS...WITH NRN STREAM JET CORE
REMAINING OVER OR EVEN N OF CANADIAN BORDER...EXCEPT OVER PAC NW.
MEANWHILE...PRIMARY PERTURBATION FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS APCHG
CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES ATTM. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN DECIDEDLY
POSITIVE TILT AS IT MOVES TO NERN/CENTRAL KS...SRN TX PANHANDLE AND
SERN NM BY 27/00Z. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT GRADIENTS...250-500 MB FLOW
MAXIMA AND 500-MB VORTICITY FIELD EACH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN
SYSTEM-RELATIVE SENSE THROUGHOUT REMAINDER PERIOD. DESPITE
THAT...HEIGHT RISES AND FLATTENING OF PATTERN TO ITS N COULD RESULT
IN THIS PERTURBATION DEVELOPING WEAK/NEARLY CLOSED 500-MB LOW BY
DEFAULT OVER NRN MO/SRN IA BY 24/12Z...WITH TROUGH TRAILING SWWD
ACROSS OK AND NW TX.

AT SFC...RESIDUAL/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WAS ANALYZED AT 04Z
FROM OFFSHORE CAROLINAS SWWD ACROSS SRN GA TO NERN/N-CENTRAL
GULF...BECOMING WARM FRONT OVER NWRN GULF OFFSHORE TX.
WRN/WARM-FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL PROGRESS INLAND DURING DAY...BECOMING
MORE ILL-DEFINED WITH WWD EXTENT AMIDST STG LOW-LEVEL WAA AND
DIABATICALLY DRIVEN VERTICAL MIXING ON BOTH SIDES OF BOUNDARY. WARM
FRONT SHOULD REACH SERN OK AND SRN AR BY
27/00Z...DECLERATING/STALLING AS IT ENCOUNTERS SWATH OF PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP-ALTERED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER ERN OK. INCREASING
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE TO ITS S WILL RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY
BETTER-DEFINED DRYLINE THROUGHOUT DAY...EXTENDING AT 27/00Z ROUGHLY
FROM CDS AREA SWD TO SSWWD ACROSS EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO COAHUILA.
FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION...IF ANY...SHOULD BE POORLY DEFINED NEAR
SFC LOW LOCATED AROUND CDS/LTS AREA...WITH INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
NNEWD OVER WRN OK. LOW SHOULD MOVE/REDEVELOP NEWD THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD...REACHING ERN OK/WRN AR BY 27/12Z WITH COLD FRONT SWWD
ACROSS N-CENTRAL/W-CENTRAL TX.

...SRN PLAINS TO ARKLATEX/OZARKS...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE AFTN INVOF
DRYLINE...WARM FRONT AND SFC TROUGH. COVERAGE INITIALLY WILL BE
LIMITED BY CAP...BUT A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING GUSTS AND LOW/CONDITIONAL TORNADO RISK. EVENTUAL
CLUSTERED TO LINEAR EVOLUTION IS POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE UPSCALE
GROWTH SHIFTING EWD ACROSS OK AND AR DURING EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR AFTN DEVELOPMENT MAY BE INVOF DRYLINE AND SFC
TROUGH OVER WRN OK AND PERHAPS SMALL PART OF NW TX...DESPITE GREATER
LOW-LEVEL THETAE BEING FARTHER S AND SE. BY THAT TIME...SFC
DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD BE MOST PERSISTENT S AND W OF CLOUD COVER IN
ACTING TO ERODE MLCINH. THIS AREA SHOULD RESIDE JUST WITHIN NRN
FRINGES OF STRONGEST DIURNAL HEATING...NARROW NWRN TONGUE OF
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SERN RIM OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT/DCVA PRECEDING MID-UPPER TROUGH. BACKED FLOW N OF
WARM-FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL AID IN LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...RESULTING IN WIND PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND SVR GUSTS. GEOMETRY OF WIND PROFILES INFLUENCED BY
POSITIVE TILT OF MID-UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME PRONOUNCED
WEAKNESSES IN 1-4 KM AGL HODOGRAPHS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
STORM-SCALE PROCESSES MAKING TORNADO RISK CONDITIONAL BUT NOT
PRECLUDING IT.

ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OR QUICKLY MOVING INTO LARGER-HODOGRAPH
ENVIRONMENT OF NE TX OR SE OK DURING LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
ALONG WARM FRONT...MAY RESIDE IN BAROCLINIC ZONE LONG ENOUGH TO POSE
TORNADO RISK...GIVEN FRONTAL ENHANCEMENT TO LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AND
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...AS WELL AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
300-400 J/KG EFFECTIVE SRH. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF SFC-BASED TSTMS
ALONG/S OF FRONT IS IN QUESTION...MAKING THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO
CONDITIONAL FOR MORE THAN MRGL TORNADO OUTLOOK ATTM.

..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 04/26/2013

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