Tuesday, September 25, 2007

KCLE [260354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCLE 260354
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1154 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W ORWELL 41.54N 80.90W
09/25/2007 ASHTABULA OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES DOWN IN WINDSOR

1120 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 W ANDOVER 41.61N 80.67W
09/25/2007 ASHTABULA OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN CHERRY TOWNSHIP


&&

$$

RANDEL

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KCLE [260354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCLE 260354
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1154 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..


&&

$$

RANDEL

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KCLE [260342]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCLE 260342
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1142 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1010 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 E BAINBRIDGE 41.39N 81.30W
09/25/2007 GEAUGA OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

FEW TREES DOWN AUBURN TOWNSHIP

1020 PM DOWNBURST 5 SE CHESTERLAND 41.47N 81.27W
09/25/2007 GEAUGA OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

FEW TREES DOWN IN NEWBURY


&&

$$

RANDEL

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KCLE [260258]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS51 KCLE 260258
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1058 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM TSTM WND DMG CENTERBURG 40.30N 82.70W
09/25/2007 KNOX OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES DOWN

0755 PM TSTM WND DMG LUCAS 40.70N 82.42W
09/25/2007 RICHLAND OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

FEW TREES DOWN

0930 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 E ASHLAND 40.87N 82.22W
09/25/2007 ASHLAND OH LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN


&&

$$

RANDEL

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KFWD [260255]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected Time

NWUS54 KFWD 260255
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
955 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0812 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 NNE BONHAM 33.72N 96.11W
09/25/2007 FANNIN TX EMERGENCY MNGR

50 FT HAM RADIO TOWER BLOWN DOWN NEAR IVANHOE...NORTH OF
BONHAM

$$

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KFWD [260252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 260252
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
952 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0950 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 NNE BONHAM 33.72N 96.11W
09/25/2007 FANNIN TX EMERGENCY MNGR

50 FT HAM RADIO TOWER BLOWN DOWN NEAR IVANHOE...NORTH OF
BONHAM

$$

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KDTX [260205]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KDTX 260205
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0721 PM TSTM WND DMG LENNON 42.99N 83.93W
09/25/2007 SHIAWASSEE MI AMATEUR RADIO

TWO TREES DOWN ACROSS M-13

0731 PM TSTM WND DMG FLUSHING 43.06N 83.84W
09/25/2007 GENESEE MI AMATEUR RADIO

8 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN

0731 PM TSTM WND DMG FLUSHING 43.06N 83.84W
09/25/2007 GENESEE MI AMATEUR RADIO

TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN

0747 PM TSTM WND DMG FLINT 43.02N 83.69W
09/25/2007 GENESEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL TREES DOWN

0755 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NE DECKERVILLE 43.57N 82.69W
09/25/2007 SANILAC MI AMATEUR RADIO

SMALL TREE DOWN


&&

$$

MANN

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Number 689

WWUS20 KWNS 260203
SEL9
SPC WW 260203
ILZ000-INZ000-MIZ000-LEZ000-LHZ000-LMZ000-260300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - NUMBER 689
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
903 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS CANCELLED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 689 ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FOR PORTIONS OF

ILLINOIS
INDIANA
MICHIGAN
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN

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KGRR [260200]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KGRR 260200
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
959 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0502 PM TSTM WND DMG CARSON CITY 43.18N 84.85W
09/25/2007 MONTCALM MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

0610 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 S WESTPHALIA 42.87N 84.80W
09/25/2007 CLINTON MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN.

0613 PM TSTM WND GST HOLLAND 42.77N 86.10W
09/25/2007 M63.00 MPH ALLEGAN MI ASOS

0615 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N HOLLAND 42.79N 86.10W
09/25/2007 M60.00 MPH OTTAWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

NORTH HOLLAND AT 144TH AND BUTTERNUT. SMALL LIMBS DOWN.
MINOR STREET FLOODING.

0615 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SE WESTPHALIA 42.90N 84.76W
09/25/2007 CLINTON MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN.

0635 PM HAIL PLAINWELL 42.45N 85.64W
09/25/2007 E0.75 INCH ALLEGAN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL.

0646 PM TSTM WND GST KENTWOOD 42.88N 85.59W
09/25/2007 E45.00 MPH KENT MI NWS EMPLOYEE

0650 PM TSTM WND GST GRAND RAPIDS 42.96N 85.66W
09/25/2007 M58.00 MPH KENT MI ASOS

0705 PM TSTM WND DMG CLARKSVILLE 42.84N 85.24W
09/25/2007 IONIA MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES WHERE BLOWN DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST SECTION OF IONIA COUNTY.


&&

$$

BMARINO

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KIND [260135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KIND 260135
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
935 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 W NORTH VERNON 39.01N 85.76W
09/25/2007 JENNINGS IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

A TREE WAS DOWNED.

0510 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 N NORTH VERNON 39.09N 85.63W
09/25/2007 JENNINGS IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES WERE DOWNED.

0526 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW PITTSBORO 39.89N 86.49W
09/25/2007 HENDRICKS IN PUBLIC

CONSTRUCTION TRAILERS WERE BLOWN ONTO THE HIGHWAY AT MILE
MARKER 60 ON INTERSTATE 74.

0616 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 N SEYMOUR 39.03N 85.89W
09/25/2007 JACKSON IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINES WERE DOWNED JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 65 AND
STATE ROAD 11.

0658 PM TSTM WND DMG NEW CASTLE 39.92N 85.36W
09/25/2007 HENRY IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER POLE DOWN, TREE ON ROAD, AND LARGE PRODUCE TENT
BLOWN OVER IN NEWCASTLE. SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN OTHER
LOCATIONS AROUND THE COUNTY.

0702 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 S PENDLETON 39.96N 85.74W
09/25/2007 MADISON IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES WERE DOWNED.

0703 PM TSTM WND DMG S MARKLEVILLE 39.98N 85.62W
09/25/2007 MADISON IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES WERE DOWNED.

0707 PM TSTM WND DMG YORKTOWN 40.17N 85.48W
09/25/2007 DELAWARE IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINES DOWN, TREES DOWN IN YORKTOWN, EATON, MUNCIE,
AND SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY.

0708 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 N MARKLEVILLE 40.04N 85.62W
09/25/2007 MADISON IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES WERE DOWNED.

0750 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 ENE WINCHESTER 40.22N 84.84W
09/25/2007 RANDOLPH IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN IN UNION CITY


&&

$$

CP

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KIND [260134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIND 260134
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
933 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0658 PM TSTM WND DMG NEW CASTLE 39.92N 85.36W
09/25/2007 HENRY IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER POLE DOWN, TREE ON ROAD, AND LARGE PRODUCE TENT
BLOWN OVER IN NEWCASTLE. SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN OTHER
LOCATIONS AROUND THE COUNTY.

0707 PM TSTM WND DMG YORKTOWN 40.17N 85.48W
09/25/2007 DELAWARE IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINES DOWN, TREES DOWN IN YORKTOWN, EATON, MUNCIE,
AND SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY.

0750 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 ENE WINCHESTER 40.22N 84.84W
09/25/2007 RANDOLPH IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN IN UNION CITY


&&

$$

CP

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KDTX [260103]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 260103
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
903 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0747 PM TSTM WND DMG FLINT 43.02N 83.69W
09/25/2007 GENESEE MI TRAINED SPOTTER

SEVERAL TREES DOWN


&&

$$

MANN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260056
SWODY1
SPC AC 260054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN LOWER MI...

..LOWER MI/NE IND/NW OH...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY IS EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SFC...A
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FROM LAKE MICHIGAN SWWD ACROSS NRN IL INTO ERN
MO. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
NEWD INTO NRN OH AND SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO THIS EVENING.

CONCERNING THE STORM ENVIRONMENT...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE BECOMING LESS STEEP WITH TIME...
UNIDIRECTIONAL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE SHOULD EXIST IN THE VICINITY OF DETROIT WHERE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS GREATER THAN AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND THE AIRMASS
HAS REMAINED UNTOUCHED. AS STORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS
EVENING...DECREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
RESULT AN INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

..WEST TX...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN
PACIFIC EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO WRN AND CNTRL TX. AT
THE SFC...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS WEST TX NEAR THE
PECOS RIVER ENEWD INTO NRN TX HILL COUNTRY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND DESTABILIZATION IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANGELO. THE LATEST RUC MODEL
SUGGESTS THE CLUSTER MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY
WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL DUE TO WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DECREASING INSTABILITY THIS EVENING.

.BROYLES.. 09/26/2007

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KCHS [260049]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 260049
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
849 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
09/25/2007 CHARLESTON SC TRAINED SPOTTER

A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED FLOODING ALONG
PORTIONS OF WENTWORTH...BARRE AND BEAUFAIN STREETS NEAR
LOCKWOOD DRIVE.


&&

$$

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KOUN [260032]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 260032
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
732 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0655 PM TSTM WND GST 1 W BENNINGTON 34.00N 96.05W
09/25/2007 E60 MPH BRYAN OK EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

DW

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KSGF [260030]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 260030
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
730 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0727 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 NNW BRINKTOWN 38.18N 92.10W
09/25/2007 MARIES MO EMERGENCY MNGR

THE LITTLE MARIES RIVER FLOODED OVER A SECTION OF A
COUNTY ROAD IN NORTHWEST MARIES COUNTY. ALSO...MARIES
COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT A PIG WAS
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING AND KILLED NEAR BRINKTOWN.


&&

$$

DCRAMER

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KMQT [260026]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 260026
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
825 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1225 PM HAIL 5 SW HOUGHTON 47.07N 88.64W
09/21/2007 E0.75 INCH HOUGHTON MI TRAINED SPOTTER

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W SILVER CITY 46.83N 89.65W
09/21/2007 ONTONAGON MI DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SEVERAL TREES DOWN ALONG M-107.

0650 PM TSTM WND DMG 10 NW IRON RIVER 46.20N 88.79W
09/21/2007 IRON MI DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

SEVERAL TREES DOWN.


&&

$$

TG

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KCHS [260014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 260014
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
814 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0810 PM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
09/25/2007 CHARLESTON SC COUNTY OFFICIAL

WATER FROM CHARLESTON HARBOR WAS REPORTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST BAY STREET NEAR THE COLUMBUS STREET TERMINAL.
REPORTED BY THE CHARLESTON HARBOR PILOT BOAT DISPATCH.


&&

$$

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KDTX [260008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 260008
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
808 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0755 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NE DECKERVILLE 43.57N 82.69W
09/25/2007 SANILAC MI AMATEUR RADIO

SMALL TREE DOWN


&&

$$

MANN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2017

ACUS11 KWNS 260004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260003
MIZ000-260130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...INTO THE THUMB OF
MICHIGAN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 689...

VALID 260003Z - 260130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 689
CONTINUES.

AN ADDITIONAL WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY IS BEGINNING TO WANE...
STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN MAY BE SLOWEST TO WEAKEN
THIS EVENING...PERHAPS DUE TO ENHANCED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW
LIFTING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY
500 MB FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION AND THE
PRODUCTION OF SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN RELATIVELY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 1.8 INCHES
AND CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG.

DESPITE NEAR SATURATED PROFILES AND WEAK TO MODERATE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FIELDS...MELTING HAIL MAY BE ENHANCING DOWNDRAFTS...AND...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH FAST STORM MOTIONS...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL IN STRONGEST ACTIVITY. THIS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...INCLUDING THE THUMB AREA...POSSIBLY THE
DETROIT METROPOLITAN AREA...THROUGH 02-03Z. THEREAFTER...SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH FURTHER STABILIZATION...AND
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO ONTARIO.

.KERR.. 09/26/2007

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

41958334 41858421 42098495 42438501 42798432 43148380
43448329 43558275 43518218 42878196 42308264

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KSGF [252356]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 252356
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
656 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0654 PM TSTM WND GST 1 W ROLLA 37.95N 91.79W
09/25/2007 E60 MPH PHELPS MO TRAINED SPOTTER

60 MPH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ON INTERSTATE 44 AT MILE
MARKER 184.


&&

$$

BARJENBRUCH

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KDTX [252355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 252355
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
754 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0731 PM TSTM WND DMG FLUSHING 43.06N 83.84W
09/25/2007 GENESEE MI AMATEUR RADIO

TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN

0721 PM TSTM WND DMG LENNON 42.99N 83.93W
09/25/2007 SHIAWASSEE MI AMATEUR RADIO

TWO TREES DOWN ACROSS M-13


&&

$$

MANN

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KDTX [252339]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDTX 252339
LSRDTX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
739 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0731 PM TSTM WND DMG FLUSHING 43.06N 83.84W
09/25/2007 GENESEE MI AMATEUR RADIO

8 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN


&&

$$

MANN

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KILX [252324]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 252324
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
624 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 NE HAVANA 40.35N 89.99W
09/25/2007 MASON IL EMERGENCY MNGR

LARGE TREES DOWN AND NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS DOWN NEAR
BUZZVILLE


&&

$$

KELLY

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KIND [252322]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIND 252322
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
721 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0702 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 S PENDLETON 39.96N 85.74W
09/25/2007 MADISON IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES WERE DOWNED.

0703 PM TSTM WND DMG S MARKLEVILLE 39.98N 85.62W
09/25/2007 MADISON IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES WERE DOWNED.

0708 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 N MARKLEVILLE 40.04N 85.62W
09/25/2007 MADISON IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES WERE DOWNED.


&&

$$

NIELD

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KGRR [252257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 252257
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
657 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0615 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SE WESTPHALIA 42.90N 84.76W
09/25/2007 CLINTON MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN.

0610 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 S WESTPHALIA 42.87N 84.80W
09/25/2007 CLINTON MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREE DOWN.


&&

$$

MKALEMBK

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KGRR [252252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 252252
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
652 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0650 PM TSTM WND GST GRAND RAPIDS 42.96N 85.66W
09/25/2007 M58 MPH KENT MI ASOS


&&

$$

MKALEMBK

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KGRR [252247]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 252247
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
647 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0646 PM TSTM WND GST KENTWOOD 42.88N 85.59W
09/25/2007 E45 MPH KENT MI NWS EMPLOYEE


&&

$$

MKALEMBK

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KGRR [252244]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 252244
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
644 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 PM HAIL PLAINWELL 42.45N 85.64W
09/25/2007 E0.75 INCH ALLEGAN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME TO PENNY SIZE HAIL.


&&

$$

MKALEMBK

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KIND [252232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIND 252232
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
632 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0616 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 N SEYMOUR 39.03N 85.89W
09/25/2007 JACKSON IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

POWER LINES WERE DOWNED JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 65 AND
STATE ROAD 11.


&&

$$

NIELD

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KGRR [252219]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 252219
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
619 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0613 PM TSTM WND GST HOLLAND 42.77N 86.10W
09/25/2007 M63.00 MPH ALLEGAN MI ASOS

0615 PM TSTM WND GST 1 N HOLLAND 42.79N 86.10W
09/25/2007 M60.00 MPH OTTAWA MI TRAINED SPOTTER

NORTH HOLLAND AT 144TH AND BUTTERNUT. SMALL LIMBS DOWN.
MINOR STREET FLOODING.


&&

$$

MKALEMBK

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KSGF [252203]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 252203
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
503 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0450 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SW CHARITY 37.48N 93.05W
09/25/2007 DALLAS MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

2 TO 3 FOOT DIAMETER TREE BLOWN DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 38
JUST NORTH OF THE DALLAS-WEBSTER COUNTY LINE.


&&

$$

BARJENBRUCH

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KGRR [252147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 252147
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
547 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0502 PM TSTM WND DMG CARSON CITY 43.18N 84.85W
09/25/2007 MONTCALM MI LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.


&&

$$

MKALEMBK

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KLOT [252137]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 252137
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
437 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM TSTM WND GST HAMMOND 41.62N 87.49W
09/25/2007 E60 MPH LAKE IN EMERGENCY MNGR

REPORTED BY LAKE COUNTY EMA.


&&

$$

ACS

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KIND [252135]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIND 252135
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
535 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0526 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW PITTSBORO 39.89N 86.49W
09/25/2007 HENDRICKS IN PUBLIC

CONSTRUCTION TRAILERS WERE BLOWN ONTO THE HIGHWAY AT MILE
MARKER 60 ON INTERSTATE 74.


&&

$$

NIELD

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KLOT [252128]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 252128
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
428 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0245 PM TSTM WND DMG ARLINGTON HEIGHTS 42.09N 87.98W
09/25/2007 COOK IL LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

0300 PM HEAVY RAIN OAK BROOK 41.84N 87.95W
09/25/2007 M0.00 INCH DUPAGE IL CO-OP OBSERVER

1.13 RAINFALL IN 20 MINUTES. ALSO HAD A 41 MPH GUST.


&&

$$

ACS

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KIND [252128]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIND 252128
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
528 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 N NORTH VERNON 39.09N 85.63W
09/25/2007 JENNINGS IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES WERE DOWNED.


&&

$$

NIELD

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KBOI [252127]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOI 252127
LSRBOI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
327 PM MDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 AM FLASH FLOOD 11 NNE DEADWOOD RES 44.45N 115.58W
09/23/2007 VALLEY ID PARK/FOREST SRVC

HEAVY RAIN ACCUMLATIONS ESTIMATED NEAR 1.5 INCHES WITH
0.38 INCHES OCCURING BETWEEN 2 AM AND 3 AM ON SEPTEMBER
23RD ON PORTIONS OF THE CASCADE COMPLEX BURN AREA CAUSED
A DEBRIS FLOW WITH WATER, MUD, AND ROCKS FLOWING ONTO
PORTIONS OF FOREST SERVICE ROAD 579 ABOUT 4 MILES NORTH
OF DEADWOOD LODGE.


&&

$$

BREIDENBACH

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KIND [252126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIND 252126
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
526 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 W NORTH VERNON 39.01N 85.76W
09/25/2007 JENNINGS IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

A TREE WAS DOWNED.


&&

$$

NIELD

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KLOT [252126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 252126
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
426 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0402 PM TSTM WND GST HAMMOND 41.62N 87.49W
09/25/2007 M47.00 MPH LAKE IN MESONET

REPORTED FROM HAMMOND, IN SCHOOL

0419 PM TSTM WND GST GARY 41.60N 87.34W
09/25/2007 E60.00 MPH LAKE IN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

ACS

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KKEY [252126]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KKEY 252126 CCA
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
525 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0404 PM TSTM WND GST 6 SSW MARATHON 24.63N 81.11W
09/25/2007 M39 MPH GMZ053 FL C-MAN STATION

0433 PM TSTM WND GST 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
09/25/2007 M39 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION


&&

$$

DFM

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KKEY [252125]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 252125
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
525 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0423 PM TSTM WND GST 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
09/25/2007 E0 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

0404 PM TSTM WND GST 6 SSW MARATHON 24.63N 81.11W
09/25/2007 E0 MPH GMZ053 FL C-MAN STATION

0404 PM TSTM WND GST 6 SSW MARATHON 24.63N 81.11W
09/25/2007 M39 MPH GMZ053 FL C-MAN STATION

0433 PM TSTM WND GST 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
09/25/2007 M39 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION


&&

$$

DFM

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KLOT [252053]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 252053
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
353 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM TSTM WND DMG ROCKFORD 42.27N 89.06W
09/25/2007 WINNEBAGO IL BROADCAST MEDIA

3 OR 4 TWO FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWNS AT 3610 CLARINE LANE.
THREE TELEPHONE POLES SNAPPED. REPORTED BY WREX.


&&

$$

ACS

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KSGF [252052]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 252052
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
352 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0344 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 NE WEST PLAINS 36.76N 91.81W
09/25/2007 HOWELL MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

CAR WASHED OFF OF ROAD 3 MILE NORTHEAST OF WEST PLAINS
ALONG COUNTY ROAD 32-210 NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF EE
HIGHWAY. A WATER RESCUE IS IN PROGRESS.


&&

$$

LINDENBERG

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 250858
SWOD48
SPC AC 250858

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

VALID 281200Z - 031200Z

..DISCUSSION...
GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DAY 5
/SAT. SEPT. 29/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS...THOUGH THE
ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT SLOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE TWO MODELS ARE IN LESS OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR DAY 5 -- AND THUS CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER THIS FORECAST THAN 24 HOURS PRIOR.

ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN THE SEVERE WEATHER AREA OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND VICINITY...THOUGH THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE AREAL OR
TEMPORAL ADJUSTMENT -- OR POSSIBLY EVEN A DOWNGRADE -- IN LATER
FORECASTS.

.GOSS.. 09/25/2007

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 250731
SWODY3
SPC AC 250729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS A TROUGH
CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WHILE UPSTREAM RIDGE MOVES OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. FURTHER UPSTREAM...THE
LOW WHICH HAS LINGERED OFF THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO BECOME
ABSORBED WITHIN A TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM THE GULF OF AK INTO THE
WRN STATES.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PAC NW AHEAD OF
THE DEVELOPING WRN TROUGH...WHILE IN THE EAST A WEAKENING FRONT MAY
LINGER INVOF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

..WRN OK INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND WRN N TX...
MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING COMBINES WITH MODESTLY-MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER TO YIELD AROUND 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE. WHILE LARGE-SCALE
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY SUPPRESS CONVECTION...MODELS HINT
THAT A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MAY CROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
WHICH -- ALONG WITH WEAK SELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW -- COULD AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT A OF FEW STORMS. IF A FEW STORMS CAN
DEVELOP...LOW-LEVEL SELYS BENEATH 25 KT WNWLYS AT MID-LEVELS MAY
PROVIDE SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR WEAKLY-ROTATING UPDRAFTS...AND
ASSOCIATED/LOW-END SEVERE THREAT. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE
5%/CONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS REGION.

.GOSS.. 09/25/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250600
SWODY1
SPC AC 250558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND NRN OH VALLEY...

..SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND MID MS VALLEY. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AROUND MIDDAY WITH THE ACTIVITY BECOMING QUITE NUMEROUS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL LINEAR MCS/S APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING. OTHER MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN THE NRN OH VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH
A PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD.

CONCERNING THE STORM ENVIRONMENT...A 70 KT MID-LEVEL JET ON THE ERN
SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT EWD TOWARD THE REGION.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CREATE
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHERE INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED
THIS AFTERNOON. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOWN ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON WHEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP. ALTHOUGH
SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD BE QUITE COMMON TODAY...AN ISOLATED
SUPERCELL THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER DUE
TO INFLUENCE FROM THE MID-LEVEL JET. ALSO...MID-LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS
THIS AREA SHOULD BE COOLER RESULTING IN STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHICH MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

..OZARK PLATEAU...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY EXTENDS NWD ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID
MS VALLEY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS A DISTURBANCE IS MOVING NWD ACROSS AR AND THIS FEATURE
SHOULD BE LOCATED IN ERN MO OR SRN IL BY MIDDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE AND SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU
AND NEAR THE MS RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 30
KT...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.

.BROYLES/GRAMS.. 09/25/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 250557
SWODY2
SPC AC 250555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY COVERING MUCH OF CANADA AND THE N
CENTRAL U.S. WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE NERN
CONUS/SEWD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES/SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE CA COAST WHILE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE SWRN AND INTO THE S CENTRAL
CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..THE NORTHEAST...
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SWWD ACROSS THE OH AND MID MS VALLEYS.
POTENTIAL FOR PRE-FRONTAL DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NORTHEAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN DUE TO ONGOING PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER.
HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION SUFFICIENT FOR A GENERAL DIURNAL INCREASE
IN STORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED -- WITH STORM ORGANIZATION FURTHER
AIDED BY AMPLE SHEAR. ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL...POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO EXIST FROM PARTS OF PA/NY NEWD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...GIVEN MODERATE/ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY
FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION.

..PARTS OF NM AND ADJACENT AREAS OF TX...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...AS DAYTIME HEATING AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTRIBUTE TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE BY AFTERNOON.

WITH 25 TO 30 KT WLYS AT MID-LEVELS ATOP SLY LOW-LEVEL
COMPONENT...SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/WEAKLY-ROTATING UPDRAFTS
MAY SUPPORT A LOCAL THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND. THREAT MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING...AS A MODEST/NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SELYS MAY
ALLOW STORMS TO PERSIST.

.GOSS.. 09/25/2007

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KOAX [250448]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KOAX 250448
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1147 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1130 PM HAIL DAVID CITY 41.25N 97.13W
09/24/2007 E2.00 INCH BUTLER NE CO-OP OBSERVER

REPORTED BY COOP OBSERVER AND EMERGENCY MANAGER.


&&

$$

SMITH

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KOAX [250405]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KOAX 250405
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1104 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0545 PM HAIL 8 NE WEST POINT 41.92N 96.60W
09/24/2007 M1.00 INCH CUMING NE PUBLIC

0605 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 WSW DECATUR 41.96N 96.39W
09/24/2007 BURT NE PUBLIC

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND WINDOWS IN A HOUSE WERE BLOWN IN
AT A LOCATION 6 MILES WEST AND 3 MILES SOUTH OF DECATUR.
WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE OVER 80 MPH.

0645 PM HAIL 2 NE CASTANA 42.09N 95.88W
09/24/2007 E0.75 INCH MONONA IA TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL UP TO 3/4 INCH AND WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH.

0650 PM TSTM WND GST 4 SW MAPLETON 42.13N 95.85W
09/24/2007 E70.00 MPH MONONA IA PUBLIC

WINDS ESTIMATED AT UP TO 70 MPH ABOUT 4.5 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MAPLETON.

0655 PM TSTM WND GST 3 SE MAPLETON 42.14N 95.75W
09/24/2007 E60.00 MPH MONONA IA PUBLIC

WINDS ESTIMATED AT UP TO 60 MPH.


&&

$$

SMITH

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