DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 010054
SWODY1
SPC AC 010052

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2012

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
TWO-STREAM WSWLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S
THROUGH EARLY WED...DOWNSTREAM FROM TROUGH AMPLIFYING SE ACROSS THE
WRN STATES. SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW IN AZ SHOULD CONTINUE ESE TO W
TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE UPR MS VLY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES
E TO THE LWR GRT LKS.

EWD MOTION OF GRT LKS SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN SW TO WSWLY LOW LVL FLOW
FROM THE LWR MS VLY TO THE CNTRL/NRN APPALACHIANS. GIVEN NRN TRACK
OF THE GRT LKS IMPULSE...HOWEVER...UPR LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK OVER THE LWR MS AND OH VLYS. NEVERTHELESS...MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN AND PERSISTENT CONFLUENCE WITHIN THE LOW LVL WIND
MAX MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF EXISTING SHALLOW CONVECTION
TO YIELD SPORADIC THUNDER FROM SRN/ERN MO ENE INTO
OH/WV....ESPECIALLY LATER TNGT AND EARLY WED.

FARTHER S...SHOWERS/TSTMS ALSO MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE TNGT
AND EARLY WED FROM THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO NEWD INTO LA...SE AR...
AND MS...AS MORE APPRECIABLE LOW LVL MOISTURE SPREADS NE INTO WEAK
WARM FRONTAL ZONE. A SEPARATE AREA OF DEVELOPMENT ALSO APPEARS
LIKELY LATE TNGT/EARLY WED OVER THE N CNTRL GULF...ALONG ERN
EXTENSION OF THE SAME SHALLOW FRONT. THE LATTER ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT
CSTL LA AND MS.

..CORFIDI.. 02/01/2012

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KSGX [312142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS56 KSGX 312142 RRA
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1014 AM PST TUE JAN 31 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0543 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 1 SW CRESTLINE 34.24N 117.31W
01/27/2012 M47.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

CRESTLINE RIDGE MESONET RECORDED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47
MPH.

0550 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 4 NNW SAN BERNARDINO 34.18N 117.32W
01/27/2012 M41.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH AT 0550 PST. GUSTS 55 MPH
REPORTED AT PALM ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 0610 PST.
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY SAN BERNARDINO CLOSED DUE TO
HIGH WINDS.

0644 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 NE PALM SPRINGS 33.94N 116.41W
01/27/2012 M58.00 MPH RIVERSIDE CA MESONET

SKY VALLEY MESONET OBSERVATION RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 58
MPH.

0810 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 WNW FONTANA 34.12N 117.52W
01/27/2012 SAN BERNARDINO CA 911 CALL CENTER

LARGE CONTAINERS BLOWN OFF SEMI-TRACTOR TRAILER ON EAST
BOUND INTERSTATE 210 AT OVERPASS WITH CHERRY AVENUE. PEAK
WIND GUST NORTHEAST 51 MPH OBSERVED AT HERITAGE SCHOOL IN
FONTANA

1122 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 NNE PEDLEY 33.99N 117.46W
01/27/2012 RIVERSIDE CA 911 CALL CENTER

POWER POLE AND LINE DOWN VICINTY JURUPA ROAD AND TYROLITE
STREET

1216 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW BANNING 33.88N 116.95W
01/27/2012 M61.00 MPH RIVERSIDE CA MESONET

OBSERVED BY HIGHLAND SPRINGS RAWS, 20 FT WIND, ELEVATION
2233 FT.

1015 PM NON-TSTM WND GST POWAY 32.99N 117.02W
01/27/2012 M51.00 MPH SAN DIEGO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0551 AM NON-TSTM WND GST FREMONT CANYON 33.79N 117.72W
01/28/2012 M82.00 MPH ORANGE CA MESONET

FREMONT CANYON RAWS RECORDED HIGH WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR
GREATER FROM 751 AM ON 1/27 TO 751 AM ON 1/28. A PEAK
WIND GUST OF 82 MPH WAS RECORDED AT 551 AM ON 1/28.

0930 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE CUYAMACA PEAK 32.93N 116.53W
01/28/2012 M59.00 MPH SAN DIEGO CA MESONET

LUCKY FIVE MESONET RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH AT 930
AM PST AND 58 MPH AT 1150 AM PST.

1043 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW CRESTLINE 34.24N 117.31W
01/28/2012 M63.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

CRESTLINE RIDGE MESONET RECORDED WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER FROM 848 AM TO 1043 AM. A PEAK WIND GUST OF 63 MPH
WAS RECORDED AT 1043 AM.

&&

$$

JMOKER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311930
SWODY1
SPC AC 311928

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2012

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA TO
REMOVE THUNDER FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN IND AND CENTRAL KY.
LAPSE RATES AND CAPE VALUES ACROSS THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR UPDRAFTS/CHARGE SEPARATION. HOWEVER
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK UNTIL VERY NEAR 12Z EAST OF THE
LOUISVILLE AREA.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 01/31/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2012/

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PWAT ESTIMATES SUGGEST
THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING NORTHWARD TODAY ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET PERSISTS
OVER THE AREA. COINCIDENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
LIFT...COUPLED WITH FORCING ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE OH VALLEY INTO TX/LA MAINLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND
FIELDS ARE QUITE STRONG OVER THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY VALUES AND
PRECLUDE A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

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KSGX [311816]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS56 KSGX 311816
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1014 AM PST TUE JAN 31 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0543 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 1 SW CRESTLINE 34.24N 117.31W
01/27/2012 M47.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

CRESTLINE RIDGE MESONET RECORDED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47
MPH.

0550 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 4 NNW SAN BERNARDINO 34.18N 117.32W
01/27/2012 M41.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH AT 0550 PST. GUSTS 55 MPH
REPORTED AT PALM ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AT 0610 PST.
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY SAN BERNARDINO CLOSED DUE TO
HIGH WINDS.

0644 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 11 NE PALM SPRINGS 33.94N 116.41W
01/27/2012 M58.00 MPH RIVERSIDE CA MESONET

SKY VALLEY MESONET OBSERVATION RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 58
MPH.

0810 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 WNW FONTANA 34.12N 117.52W
01/27/2012 SAN BERNARDINO CA 911 CALL CENTER

LARGE CONTAINERS BLOWN OFF SEMI-TRACTOR TRAILER ON EAST
BOUND INTERSTATE 210 AT OVERPASS WITH CHERRY AVENUE. PEAK
WIND GUST NORTHEAST 51 MPH OBSERVED AT HERITAGE SCHOOL IN
FONTANA

1122 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 NNE PEDLEY 33.99N 117.46W
01/27/2012 RIVERSIDE CA 911 CALL CENTER

POWER POLE AND LINE DOWN VICINTY JURUPA ROAD AND TYROLITE
STREET

1216 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW BANNING 33.88N 116.95W
01/27/2012 M61.00 MPH RIVERSIDE CA MESONET

OBSERVED BY HIGHLAND SPRINGS RAWS, 20 FT WIND, ELEVATION
2233 FT.

1015 PM NON-TSTM WND GST POWAY 32.99N 117.02W
01/27/2012 M51.00 MPH SAN DIEGO CA TRAINED SPOTTER

0551 AM NON-TSTM WND GST FREMONT CANYON 33.79N 117.72W
01/28/2012 M82.00 MPH ORANGE CA MESONET

FREMONT CANYON RAWS RECORDED HIGH WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR
GREATER FROM 751 AM ON 1/27 TO 751 AM ON 1/28. A PEAK
WIND GUST OF 82 MPH WAS RECORDED AT 551 AM ON 1/28.

0930 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 ESE CUYAMACA PEAK 32.93N 116.53W
01/28/2012 M59.00 MPH SAN DIEGO CA MESONET

LUCKY FIVE MESONET RECORDED A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH AT 930
AM PST AND 58 MPH AT 1150 AM PST.

1043 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SW CRESTLINE 34.24N 117.31W
01/28/2012 M63.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

CRESTLINE RIDGE MESONET RECORDED WIND GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER FROM 848 AM TO 1043 AM. A PEAK WIND GUST OF 63 MPH
WAS RECORDED AT 1043 AM.

&&

$$

JMOKER

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 311728
SWODY2
SPC AC 311727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2012

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED THROUGH MUCH OF DAY
2 AS A NRN STREAM TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND...AND A SRN STREAM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE SWRN
STATES REMAINS PROGRESSIVE REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z
THU. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THE LATTER TROUGH DEAMPLIFYING
ON WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES INTO A CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...BUT SHOULD PHASE WITH A SECOND NRN STREAM
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WRN
STATES TO THE ROCKIES...RESULTING IN DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE LEAD NRN STREAM
TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE NERN STATES...WHILE THE OH VALLEY
SEGMENT MOVES SWD INTO THE TN VALLEY. THE WRN PART OF THIS BOUNDARY
EXTENDING WSWWD FROM AR INTO N TX AT 12Z WED SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TX.

...PARTS OF E TX INTO SRN AR AND NWRN LA...
NWD MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 1 WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
INTO THE EARLY PART OF DAY 2...PRIOR TO THE FORECAST OF VEERING LOW
LEVEL WINDS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 F SHOULD MOVE INTO NERN TX
AND SRN AR BY LATE WED MORNING...WITH VALUES IN THE MID-UPPER 60S
CONFINED TO PRIMARILY THE TX/LA COASTS. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
/7-8 C PER KM/ SPREADING EWD WITH THE SRN STREAM TROUGH AND ATOP THE
MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD SUPPORT WEAK DESTABILIZATION /MUCAPE 500-1000
J PER KG/. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE MUCH WEAKER WITH SWD
EXTENT...HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD COMPENSATE
AND RESULT IN SIMILAR VALUES OF INSTABILITY TOWARD THE NWRN GULF
COAST WED AFTERNOON.

DESPITE GENERALLY WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL
WINDS /50+ KT AT 500 MB/ ACCOMPANYING THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT FROM SRN AR TO
E TX...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. DESPITE THIS
FACTOR AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION WED
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAKENING
SURFACE FRONT AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE
OVERALL DEVELOPMENT FOR MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.

MODELS DO AGREE THAT THERE IS LESS OF CHANCE FOR TSTMS AND ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT OVER SERN OK...AND THIS AREA HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
OUTLOOK. THE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY HAS BEEN EXPANDED SWD SOME
ACROSS MORE OF E TX AND SRN AR WHERE DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY...
SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..PETERS.. 01/31/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311611
SWODY1
SPC AC 311610

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2012

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PWAT ESTIMATES SUGGEST
THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING NORTHWARD TODAY ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET PERSISTS
OVER THE AREA. COINCIDENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
LIFT...COUPLED WITH FORCING ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE OH VALLEY INTO TX/LA MAINLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND
FIELDS ARE QUITE STRONG OVER THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY VALUES AND
PRECLUDE A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

..HART/LEITMAN.. 01/31/2012

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KMSO [311448]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KMSO 311448
LSRMSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
748 AM MST TUE JAN 31 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0621 AM SNOW 7 WNW SALTESE 47.45N 115.65W
01/31/2012 M2.0 INCH MINERAL MT PUBLIC

24 HOUR SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR LOOKOUT PASS SKI RESORT
BASE WHICH IS 4500 FT. DEPTH IS 78 INCHES. TEMPERATURE
WAS 28 DEGREES.

&&

$$

NOBLE

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KSGX [311423]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KSGX 311423
LSRSGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
623 AM PST TUE JAN 31 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0555 AM DENSE FOG 1 W RANCHO BERNARDO 33.02N 117.08W
01/31/2012 SAN DIEGO CA NWS EMPLOYEE

VISIBILITY OF 150 YARDS ALONG WEST BERNARDO DR BETWEEN
BERNARDO CENTER DR AND RANCHO BERNARDO RD.

&&

$$

JMOKER

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 311253
SWODY1
SPC AC 311251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2012

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE THE EWD PROGRESSION OF ONE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE EWD FROM SRN CA TO TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NRN
PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE SEWD TO AN AXIS FROM NW OH TO SE OK BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS UNDERWAY FROM THE NW GULF
COAST INTO ERN OK...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NEWD IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT AND CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION BY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. HERE...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE WEAK ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AND
WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ELEVATED CONVECTION FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.

FARTHER SW...A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS NOW MOVING NEWD OVER SE
TX/SW LA...AND THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES ALOFT REMAIN RELATIVELY
POOR AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY WARM FOR
LIGHTNING-PRODUCING CONVECTION FROM S TX INTO WRN LA.
STILL...ISOLATED STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS SE TX AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES GRADUALLY IN A WEAK WAA REGIME...AND THIS
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NEWD BY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE CENTRAL TX
AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL LIKELY LIMIT THIS THREAT.

..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 01/31/2012

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KDLH [311208]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 311208
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
608 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM FREEZING RAIN INTERNATIONAL FALLS 48.59N 93.41W
01/31/2012 M0.04 INCH KOOCHICHING MN OFFICIAL NWS OBS

GLAZING OF ICE ON SURFACES

&&

$$

GRANING

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 310954
SWOD48
SPC AC 310954

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2012

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND AN
EJECTING MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. THE MODELS COUPLE THE
LOW AND MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON FRIDAY/DAY 4 AS A
STRONG SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT...ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF EAST
AND NORTH TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM HERE UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES AS THE MODELS MOVE THE MOIST SECTOR SEWD INTO THE GULF
COAST STATES. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER
TO MID-MS VALLEY EARLY ON SATURDAY/DAY 5 AND IN THE CNTRL GULF COAST
STATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY/DAY 6 AND MONDAY/DAY 7...THE
MODELS MOVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SERN STATES WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT UNCERTAINTY IS QUITE HIGH BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT A SLIGHT RISK AREA
MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF EAST AND NORTH TX ON FRIDAY/DAY 4 BUT
WILL WAIT UNTIL THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK IN ORDER TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM.

..BROYLES.. 01/31/2012

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 310848
SWODY2
SPC AC 310847

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2012

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED TO COLOR-FILL THE PROBABILITY GRAPHIC

...ARKLATEX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS A
40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE ARKLATEX. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM CNTRL
TX EXTENDING NEWD INTO SWRN AR WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND DALLAS
TX AT 21Z SHOW MUCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM. THIS ALONG WITH 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND MOVE INTO THE SRN OZARKS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR THE HAIL THREAT IS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE GFS DEVELOPS FEWER STORMS AND IS FURTHER TO
THE EAST. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER TO THE NORTH WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS
STORMS BACK TO THE WEST AROUND THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. HAVE
TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE THREE SOLUTIONS MAINTAINING A 5
PERCENT HAIL PROBABILITY FROM NEAR DALLAS ENEWD TO JUST NORTH OF
SHREVEPORT LA.

..BROYLES.. 01/31/2012

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 310841
SWODY2
SPC AC 310840

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2012

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ARKLATEX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS A
40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE ARKLATEX. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM CNTRL
TX EXTENDING NEWD INTO SWRN AR WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND DALLAS
TX AT 21Z SHOW MUCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM. THIS ALONG WITH 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND MOVE INTO THE SRN OZARKS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR THE HAIL THREAT IS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE GFS DEVELOPS FEWER STORMS AND IS FURTHER TO
THE EAST. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER TO THE NORTH WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS
STORMS BACK TO THE WEST AROUND THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. HAVE
TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE THREE SOLUTIONS MAINTAINING A 5
PERCENT HAIL PROBABILITY FROM NEAR DALLAS ENEWD TO JUST NORTH OF
SHREVEPORT LA.

..BROYLES.. 01/31/2012

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 310831
SWODY3
SPC AC 310829

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2012

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WCNTRL TX...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
A SOMEWHAT FLATTENED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY ON THURSDAY. ON
THE WRN SIDE OF THE RIDGE....MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE AXIS OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET IN WEST TX THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION RAPIDLY
EXPANDING NWD ACROSS NW TX AND WRN OK THURSDAY EVENING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THURSDAY EVENING ALONG THIS CORRIDOR FROM 00Z TO 06Z SHOW
MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
THIS ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
A LARGE HAIL THREAT. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IF SFC-BASED STORMS CAN INITIATE. HOWEVER...THE LOCATION
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. THE NAM IS FOCUSING
THE MOST CONVECTION FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE...WRN OK AND SRN KS WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE
DEVELOPMENT IN WEST AND NORTHWEST TX. AT THIS POINT...AM FAVORING
THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. AS THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA WILL LIKELY NEEDED TO BE MOVED OR CHANGED IN THE DAY 2
OUTLOOK.

..BROYLES.. 01/31/2012

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 310647
SWODY2
SPC AC 310645

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2012

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ARKLATEX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS A
40 TO 50 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE ARKLATEX. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM CNTRL
TX EXTENDING NEWD INTO SWRN AR WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND DALLAS
TX AT 21Z SHOW MUCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM. THIS ALONG WITH 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND MOVE INTO THE SRN OZARKS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR THE HAIL THREAT IS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THE GFS DEVELOPS FEWER STORMS AND IS FURTHER TO
THE EAST. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER TO THE NORTH WHILE THE NAM DEVELOPS
STORMS BACK TO THE WEST AROUND THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. HAVE
TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE THREE SOLUTIONS MAINTAINING A 5
PERCENT HAIL PROBABILITY FROM NEAR DALLAS ENEWD TO JUST NORTH OF
SHREVEPORT LA.

..BROYLES.. 01/31/2012

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 310555
SWODY1
SPC AC 310554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST MON JAN 30 2012

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY ZONAL OVER THE LWR 48 THIS PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE EWD IN BOTH THE NRN STREAM /ROUGHLY N OF
40N/...AND THE SRN STREAM /ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF STATES/. THE
PATTERN WILL...HOWEVER...BEGIN TO AMPLIFY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS NRN
STREAM IMPULSE NOW NEAR 150W TURNS SEWD INTO WA/ORE BY 12Z WED. IN
THE MEAN TIME...SRN IMPULSE NOW OVER SE TX SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN AS
IT CONTINUES ENE ACROSS THE GULF CST STATES TODAY...WHILE UPSTREAM
TROUGH NOW IN CA TRACKS ESE TO FAR W TX BY 12Z WED.

SFC LOW MOVING E ACROSS THE GRT LKS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NRN
STREAM WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD CURRENT OF SW TO WSWLY LOW LVL FLOW
FROM E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY TO THE UPR OH VLY/NERN U.S. THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SW FROM THE LOW WILL ADVANCE SE
ACROSS THE UPR/MID MS VLYS AND SRN PLNS BY 12Z WED. BUT ANY THUNDER
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AXIS OF CONFLUENCE/UPLIFT WITHIN THE
GRADUALLY MOISTENING LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND
TO ZONE OF UPLIFT ALONG SHALLOW BOUNDARY MARKING THE NRN EDGE OF
MARITIME AIR MASS OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST.

...E TX AND CNTRL GULF CST NE INTO THE OH VLY...
LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM E TX INTO THE LWR TN/OH VLYS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 60S F SHOULD
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF E TX BY LATE IN THE DAY...WITH VALUES IN THE LWR
50S EXTENDING AS FAR N AS SRN IL/ID TNGT/EARLY WED.
WHILE THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL FOSTER SOME DESTABILIZATION...
BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN MODEST MID LVL LAPSE RATES.
ALTHOUGH MUCAPE MAY REACH 500-800 J/KG OVER E TX...VALUES SHOULD
REMAIN AOA 250 J/KG OVER THE OH VLY.

ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR ALONG SRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF THE
TX GULF CST THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEPARTING UPR IMPULSE.
ADDITIONAL ISOLD TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCTD SHOWERS/STORMS MAY FORM OVER
CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE TX GULF CSTL PLN LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
SFC HEATING. OVERALL COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD...HOWEVER...BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY/FORCING FOR
ASCENT.

OTHER SCTD/EPISODIC AREAS OF TSTMS MAY FORM TNGT THROUGH EARLY WED
FROM NE TX AND ERN OK ENE INTO PARTS OF THE TN AND LWR OH VLYS...IN
ZONE OF MOISTENING/CONFLUENCE/WAA ALONG AFOREMENTIONED LLJ. FARTHER
S...A SEPARATE...MORE SUSTAINED AND CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY/TNGT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK BUT PERSISTENT
LOW LVL WAA ATOP SHALLOW STNRY FRONT OVER THE N CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX THAT LINGERS THROUGH WED MORNING AND AFFECTS SRN PORTIONS OF
LA AND MS. ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS...AND MODEST WIND
FIELD...SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED SVR WEATHER.

..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 01/31/2012

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KDLH [310527]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDLH 310527
LSRDLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1127 PM CST MON JAN 30 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1125 PM FREEZING RAIN 5 N VIRGINIA 47.59N 92.51W
01/30/2012 M0.00 INCH ST. LOUIS MN TRAINED SPOTTER

FREEZING RAIN BEGAN AT 11 PM.

&&

$$

KK

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