SWODY1
SPC AC 311610
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1010 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2012
VALID 311630Z - 011200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PWAT ESTIMATES SUGGEST
THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING NORTHWARD TODAY ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET PERSISTS
OVER THE AREA. COINCIDENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
LIFT...COUPLED WITH FORCING ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE OH VALLEY INTO TX/LA MAINLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND
FIELDS ARE QUITE STRONG OVER THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY VALUES AND
PRECLUDE A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
..HART/LEITMAN.. 01/31/2012
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