KSGF [240357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 240357
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1057 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 PM FLASH FLOOD 4 E PURDY 36.82N 93.86W
04/23/2008 BARRY MO DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

THE MISSOURI DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REPORTS THAT
STATE ROUTE C BETWEEN PURDY AND MCDOWELL IS CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING ALONG THE FLAT CREEK.

&&

$$

WISE

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KFWD [240354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 240354
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1054 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1053 PM HAIL DAWSON 31.89N 96.71W
04/23/2008 E1.00 INCH NAVARRO TX EMERGENCY MNGR

QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN DAWSON

$$

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KUNR [240340]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KUNR 240340
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
940 PM MDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0540 PM HAIL 4 W OELRICHS 43.18N 103.31W
04/23/2008 E1.00 INCH FALL RIVER SD PUBLIC

0600 PM HAIL NNE OELRICHS 43.18N 103.23W
04/23/2008 E1.75 INCH FALL RIVER SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0722 PM HAIL 1 S OGLALA 43.17N 102.73W
04/23/2008 E1.50 INCH SHANNON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0725 PM HAIL SE OPAL 44.89N 102.61W
04/23/2008 E1.50 INCH MEADE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0740 PM HAIL 2 E MAURINE 45.02N 102.56W
04/23/2008 E1.75 INCH MEADE SD PUBLIC

0755 PM HAIL 1 E SHARPS CORNER 43.38N 102.38W
04/23/2008 E1.00 INCH SHANNON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 PM HAIL 2 NW UNION CENTER 44.58N 102.70W
04/23/2008 E0.75 INCH MEADE SD PUBLIC

0858 PM HAIL 15 W PINE RIDGE 43.03N 102.85W
04/23/2008 E0.75 INCH SHANNON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

BCECIL

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KEAX [240318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KEAX 240318
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1017 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0531 PM HAIL WARRENSBURG 38.76N 93.73W
04/23/2008 E1.00 INCH JOHNSON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

0626 PM HAIL 1 NW MOUND CITY KS 38.15N 94.83W
04/23/2008 E1.00 INCH LINN KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

0637 PM HAIL CLIFTON CITY 38.77N 93.05W
04/23/2008 E1.00 INCH COOPER MO TRAINED SPOTTER

0710 PM HAIL 1 NNE RICHMOND 39.29N 93.97W
04/23/2008 E0.88 INCH RAY MO PUBLIC

0737 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 E KANSAS CITY 39.12N 94.51W
04/23/2008 JACKSON MO FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

WATER RUNNING OVER THE ROAD AT THE INTERSECTION OF
GARDNER AND CHOUTEAU PARKWAY

0737 PM FLASH FLOOD 2 NE GLADSTONE 39.23N 94.53W
04/23/2008 CLAY MO FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

WATER RUNNING OVER THE ROAD NEAR INTERSECTION OF N.E.
80TH STREET AND SOCCER DRIVE

0750 PM TSTM WND GST GALLATIN 39.91N 93.96W
04/23/2008 E60.00 MPH DAVIESS MO CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

ABAILEY

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KFWD [240240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 240240
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
940 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0900 PM FLASH FLOOD BURLESON 32.53N 97.33W
04/23/2008 JOHNSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

MANY ROADS FLOODED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
COUNTY.

$$

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KLSX [240236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KLSX 240236
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
936 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0544 PM HAIL CALIFORNIA 38.63N 92.57W
04/23/2008 E0.75 INCH MONITEAU MO TRAINED SPOTTER

NEAR CALIFORNIA MISSOURI

0611 PM HAIL JAMESTOWN 38.77N 92.48W
04/23/2008 E0.75 INCH MONITEAU MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

HAIL REPORTED 2 MILES SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN. ALSO WIND
ESTIMATED BETWEEN 40-50 MPH

0614 PM HAIL JAMESTOWN 38.77N 92.48W
04/23/2008 E1.00 INCH MONITEAU MO TRAINED SPOTTER

HEAVY RAIN. WIND EASTIMATED AT 30-35 MPH

&&

$$

TRUETT

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KVEF [240234]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KVEF 240234
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
733 PM PDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0959 AM NON-TSTM WND GST DAGGETT 34.86N 116.88W
04/23/2008 M44.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA ASOS

FIRST OCCURRENCE OF ADVISORY CRITERIA MEASURED AT KDAG.

1000 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 E DAGGETT 34.85N 116.79W
04/23/2008 M42.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

SITE CLR11 MESONET, NAME DAGGETT.

1214 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 19 NNW LENWOOD 35.15N 117.18W
04/23/2008 M42.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

MESONET RAWS, NAME OPAL MOUNTAIN.

1240 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 30 W BAKER 35.35N 116.59W
04/23/2008 M42.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA MESONET

SITE CLR14, NAME 4-CORNERS.

&&

$$

BFUIS

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KUNR [240228]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 240228
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
827 PM MDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 PM HAIL SE OPAL 44.89N 102.61W
04/23/2008 E1.50 INCH MEADE SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0740 PM HAIL 2 E MAURINE 45.02N 102.56W
04/23/2008 E1.75 INCH MEADE SD PUBLIC

0755 PM HAIL 1 E SHARPS CORNER 43.38N 102.38W
04/23/2008 E1.00 INCH SHANNON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 PM HAIL 2 NW UNION CENTER 44.58N 102.70W
04/23/2008 E0.75 INCH MEADE SD PUBLIC

&&

$$

BCECIL

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KFWD [240227]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 240227
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
927 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0848 PM TSTM WND DMG ALVARADO 32.41N 97.21W
04/23/2008 JOHNSON TX AMATEUR RADIO

3 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN

$$

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KSGF [240156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 240156
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
856 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0840 PM TSTM WND GST PLEASANT HOPE 37.46N 93.27W
04/23/2008 E50 MPH POLK MO EMERGENCY MNGR

50 MPH WIND GUSTS IN PLEASANT HOPE.

&&

$$

BARJENBRUCH

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KLUB [240150]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KLUB 240150
LSRLUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
850 PM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1100 AM HAIL LITTLEFIELD 33.92N 102.33W
04/23/2008 E0.75 INCH LAMB TX PUBLIC

1145 AM TSTM WND GST 6 SSW ANTON 33.73N 102.20W
04/23/2008 M67 MPH HOCKLEY TX MESONET

RECORDED BY THE TEXAS TECH WEST TEXAS MESONET

0130 PM HAIL FARWELL 34.39N 103.03W
04/23/2008 E1.75 INCH PARMER TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

OCCURRED AT THE COURTHOUSE

0418 PM HAIL 1 S FRIONA 34.62N 102.72W
04/23/2008 E0.75 INCH PARMER TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

0452 PM HAIL 7 S BLACK 34.58N 102.61W
04/23/2008 E1.00 INCH PARMER TX BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

$$

FB

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KVEF [240148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KVEF 240148 CCA
LSRVEF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
648 PM PDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0959 AM NON-TSTM WND GST DAGGETT 34.86N 116.88W
04/23/2008 M44.00 MPH SAN BERNARDINO CA ASOS

MEASURED AT KDAG.

&&

$$

BFUIS

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 218

WWUS20 KWNS 231450
SEL8
SPC WW 231450
KSZ000-232100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 218
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
950 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 950 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF CONCORDIA KANSAS TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
WICHITA KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 217...

DISCUSSION...STRONG WARM ADVECTION OF A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS
RESULTING IN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS KS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22020.

...HALES

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KDDC [231450]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 231450
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
949 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0925 AM HAIL 3 ENE RADIUM 38.19N 98.84W
04/23/2008 E0.88 INCH STAFFORD KS PUBLIC

0927 AM HAIL 1 E RADIUM 38.17N 98.87W
04/23/2008 E0.75 INCH STAFFORD KS PUBLIC

0927 AM HAIL 5 E RADIUM 38.17N 98.81W
04/23/2008 E0.75 INCH STAFFORD KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

01

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KICT [231445]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 231445
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
944 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0944 AM HAIL HILLSBORO 38.35N 97.20W
04/23/2008 E0.75 INCH MARION KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

ELDER

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 217

WWUS20 KWNS 231434
SEL7
SPC WW 231434
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-232100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 217
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
935 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
MUCH OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA
LARGE PART OF TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 935 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF
DODGE CITY KANSAS TO 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUBBOCK TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY
ACROSS WATCH AREA AS A MOIST...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SPREADS NWD
SRN HI PLAINS AHEAD OF S/W TROUGH. WITH HEATING AND INCREASING
UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF TROUGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
WITH LARGE HAIL INITIALLY PRIMARY THREAT. DURING
AFTERNOON...SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN WHICH WILL
INCREASE SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING POSSIBLE TORNADOES.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24025.

...HALES

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KICT [231434]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 231434
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
933 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0933 AM HAIL 3 NE GOESSEL 38.28N 97.31W
04/23/2008 E1.75 INCH MARION KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

ELDER

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KICT [231433]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 231433
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
933 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM HAIL GOESSEL 38.25N 97.35W
04/23/2008 E0.75 INCH MARION KS LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

KRC

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KDDC [231433]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 231433
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
932 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 AM HAIL 5 NNW FOWLER 37.46N 100.22W
04/23/2008 E0.88 INCH MEADE KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

01

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KOUN [231423]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 231423
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
923 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0916 AM HAIL TIPTON 34.50N 99.14W
04/23/2008 E0.88 INCH TILLMAN OK AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

TAYLOR

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KMFR [231423]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KMFR 231423
LSRMFR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
723 AM PDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0720 AM SNOW 1 SSW OBRIEN 42.06N 123.71W
04/23/2008 U0.0 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER

SNOWING MODERATELY THIS MORNING

&&

$$

SUGDEN

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0697

ACUS11 KWNS 231420
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231420
KSZ000-231545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0697
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0920 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231420Z - 231545Z

A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF KS THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS LIKELY SOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL KS.

SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KS AMIDST A WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME. SHORT TERM TRENDS/MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF KS THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. AROUND 35-40 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL PROVIDE FOR SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION/UPDRAFT ROTATION...ENHANCING THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL
AMIDST A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 2000-3000 J/KG MUCAPE PER EARLY MORNING
OBSERVED RAOBS FROM LAMONT OK/DODGE CITY KS.

..GUYER.. 04/23/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

37320062 38880063 39299793 38839570 37379582 37079798

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KDDC [231415]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 231415
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
915 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0909 AM HAIL 4 SSW FOWLER 37.33N 100.22W
04/23/2008 E1.75 INCH MEADE KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

01

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KOUN [231410]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 231410
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
910 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0903 AM HAIL MOUNTAIN VIEW 35.10N 98.75W
04/23/2008 E0.75 INCH KIOWA OK AMATEUR RADIO

&&

$$

TAYLOR

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KDDC [231359]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 231359
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
859 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0855 AM HAIL 6 SE MEADE 37.22N 100.26W
04/23/2008 E1.00 INCH MEADE KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

01

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KLZK [231408]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 231408
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
908 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0150 PM HAIL DES ARC 34.98N 91.51W
04/22/2008 E1.00 INCH PRAIRIE AR CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

55

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KDDC [231408]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 231408
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
908 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0847 AM HAIL 4 ENE FELLSBURG 37.83N 99.11W
04/23/2008 E0.75 INCH EDWARDS KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

01

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KTSA [231357]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KTSA 231357
LSRTSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
857 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 PM HAIL 8 E POTEAU 35.05N 94.48W
04/22/2008 E1.00 INCH LE FLORE OK PUBLIC

&&

$$

CKH

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KOUN [231354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KOUN 231354
LSROUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
852 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0812 AM HAIL ALTUS AIR FORCE BASE 34.66N 99.29W
04/23/2008 E0.75 INCH JACKSON OK TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

TAYLOR

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KLCH [231349]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 231349
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
849 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1128 PM TSTM WND DMG 6 S GARDNER 31.18N 92.69W
04/22/2008 RAPIDES LA PUBLIC

GROCER REPORTS TREES DOWN.

&&

$$

MOGGED

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KDDC [231345]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDDC 231345
LSRDDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
844 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0837 AM HAIL 5 E CENTERVIEW 37.79N 99.18W
04/23/2008 E0.88 INCH EDWARDS KS PUBLIC

&&

$$

01

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KGRR [231317]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 231317
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
917 AM EDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0916 AM HEAVY RAIN ADA 42.95N 85.49W
04/23/2008 E0.14 INCH KENT MI NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KICT [231312]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KICT 231312
LSRICT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
811 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0811 AM HAIL PEABODY 38.17N 97.11W
04/23/2008 E0.75 INCH MARION KS TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CDJ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231244
SWODY1
SPC AC 231241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
WESTERN NORTH TX INTO SOUTHERN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...

MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A DEEP UPPER LOW OFF THE WA/ORE COAST
WITH A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING INLAND INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. ANOTHER STRONG FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A RATHER
ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY/TONIGHT.

...TX/OK/KS TODAY...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD WEST TX. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN CAPPING INVERSION AND LEAD TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING FROM THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OK. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT AMA/MAF/OUN/DDC SHOW
VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT CAPE VALUES /700-500MB
LR OF 8-9 C/KM AND MUCAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG/. VERY FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS SUGGEST A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD NUMBER 696 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

...TX/OK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AFOREMENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS TX
PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK TODAY...LEAVING AREAS FROM WEST CENTRAL TX INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL OK RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED. THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN COVERED BY DENSE CIRRUS MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WILL STILL SEE
SOME DAYTIME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S WILL YIELD AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000+ J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE WEAK
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY THROUGH 00Z
AS PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ALONG WEST EDGE OF INSTABILITY
AXIS AND IN EXIT REGION OF COMPACT UPPER JET...ROUGHLY WEST OF
ABI/SJT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TRACK/DEVELOP INTO SOUTHERN OK/NORTH
TX. THERMODYNAMIC AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY REGARDING LOW LEVEL RESPONSE OF WIND FIELDS TO
APPROACHING TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT BY EARLY EVENING
OVER MODERATE RISK AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS
OK WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WELL
INTO THE NIGHT.

...SD/NEB...
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER UT WILL ROTATE EASTWARD
AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY EVENING.
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL HELP
TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
500+ J/KG OVER WESTERN NEB/SD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WY BORDER WHICH WILL
SPREAD ACROSS SLIGHT RISK AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A RISK
OF HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AS DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS.

..HART/JEWELL.. 04/23/2008

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KLCH [231240]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLCH 231240
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
740 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 AM HAIL ELIZABETH 30.87N 92.79W
04/23/2008 E1.00 INCH ALLEN LA PUBLIC

DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

&&

$$

MOGGED

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0696

ACUS11 KWNS 231232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231231
OKZ000-TXZ000-231330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0696
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PNHDL/WRN OK SWD INTO W-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231231Z - 231330Z

ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BETWEEN 13Z-15Z
WITH A THREAT OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PRIMARY SURFACE LOW W OF INK WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM OR QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD TO NEAR LTS
AND INTO NERN OK. A 30-40 KT LLJ HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT
FROM WRN TX NWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...SUPPORTING A ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG IT/S AXIS. RECENT
TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOW DEEPENING CONVECTION/EARLY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING FROM PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND W-CNTRL
TX NEWD INTO SWRN OK. THIS IS LIKELY SIGNALING THAT THE LEADING
EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS WRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS
DEVELOPING WWD/NWWD INTO WRN TX.

12Z SOUNDINGS FROM AMA/MAF INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5-9.0 C/KM...
CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING...SUPPORTING
AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSTMS THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. GIVEN
THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
AND MODEST CLOUD BEARING SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 04/23/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

31990003 32150133 32680202 34410195 35250161 36020098
36340039 36539964 36069861 34489860 32259944

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KLCH [231230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KLCH 231230
LSRLCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
730 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0645 PM HAIL HORNBECK 31.33N 93.40W
04/22/2008 E1.75 INCH VERNON LA PUBLIC

GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

1014 PM DOWNBURST ALEXANDRIA 31.29N 92.46W
04/22/2008 RAPIDES LA ASOS

AUTOMATIC SURFACE OBSERVATION SITE AT ALEXANDRIA REGIONAL
AIRPORT REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 56 KNOTS FROM A
THUNDERSTORM.

1050 PM HAIL LECOMPTE 31.09N 92.40W
04/22/2008 E0.88 INCH RAPIDES LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

JBRAZZELL

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 230902
SWOD48
SPC AC 230901

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

VALID 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...

GFS HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF THROUGH ABOUT DAY 6 WITH
THE TRANSITION TO A MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME. BY DAY 5 THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WRN STATES.

...DAY 4...

COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...SWD ACROSS THE SERN
STATES AND WWD INTO S TX WHERE IT WILL PROBABLY STALL. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN POST-FRONTAL WITH
MARGINAL SHEAR AND MODEST INSTABILITY IN MOST OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER PARTS OF S TX WHERE RICHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE BELOW STEEP LAPSE RATES.

...DAY 5...

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS WILL SURGE SEWD THROUGH TX. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET THAN THE ECMWF IN RESPONSE TO THE
IMPULSE. IN EITHER CASE SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
EXIST FROM S TX INTO A PORTION OF THE SERN U.S. AS THIS FRONT
INTERCEPTS THE MOIST AXIS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
UPGRADE TO RISK AREA IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...DAY 6-7...

OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED THIS PERIOD AS OFFSHORE FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF.

..DIAL.. 04/23/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 230804
SWODY3
SPC AC 230803

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY INTO A PART OF WI...

CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK FORECASTER NAME

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE DAY. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH SWRN TX EARLY FRIDAY WILL
MOVE EAST AND EXTEND FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND SWWD
THROUGH S CNTRL OR S TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...SW THROUGH NE TX INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...

RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL TX WARM SECTOR
BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...SOME INCREASE IN MID-UPPER FLOW WILL
OCCUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH. DEEP LAYER WIND
PROFILES WILL BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
STORMS. A MIX OF MULTICELL LINES AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ADVANCES SEWD INTO THE
DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS

...LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGIONS...

STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN PERIOD OVER PARTS OF THIS REGION
WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL.
OWING TO SELY TRAJECTORIES FROM CP AIR EMANATING FROM SERN U.S.
SURFACE RIDGE...MOISTURE QUALITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED AND THE MOIST
AXIS WILL REMAIN NARROW IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...MODERATELY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP ALONG EWD ADVANCING FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA...

THREAT IN THIS REGION IS MORE CONDITIONAL DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
ONGOING PRECIPITATION WITHIN ZONE OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. DEPENDING ON HOW
THE EARLY STORMS EVOLVE...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A PORTION OF
THE WARM SECTOR TO DESTABILIZE. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD THE FRONT FROM NRN IL INTO SRN WI WITH A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

..DIAL.. 04/23/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 230759
SWODY3
SPC AC 230758

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY INTO A PART OF WI...

CORRECTED FOR 5% OUTLOOK LINE

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE DAY. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH SWRN TX EARLY FRIDAY WILL
MOVE EAST AND EXTEND FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND SWWD
THROUGH S CNTRL OR S TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...SW THROUGH NE TX INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...

RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL TX WARM SECTOR
BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...SOME INCREASE IN MID-UPPER FLOW WILL
OCCUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH. DEEP LAYER WIND
PROFILES WILL BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
STORMS. A MIX OF MULTICELL LINES AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ADVANCES SEWD INTO THE
DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS

...LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGIONS...

STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN PERIOD OVER PARTS OF THIS REGION
WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL.
OWING TO SELY TRAJECTORIES FROM CP AIR EMANATING FROM SERN U.S.
SURFACE RIDGE...MOISTURE QUALITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED AND THE MOIST
AXIS WILL REMAIN NARROW IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...MODERATELY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP ALONG EWD ADVANCING FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA...

THREAT IN THIS REGION IS MORE CONDITIONAL DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
ONGOING PRECIPITATION WITHIN ZONE OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. DEPENDING ON HOW
THE EARLY STORMS EVOLVE...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A PORTION OF
THE WARM SECTOR TO DESTABILIZE. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD THE FRONT FROM NRN IL INTO SRN WI WITH A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

..SELECT A FORECASTER.. 04/23/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 230748
SWODY3
SPC AC 230746

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY INTO A PART OF WI...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO BE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE DAY. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH SWRN TX EARLY FRIDAY WILL
MOVE EAST AND EXTEND FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND SWWD
THROUGH S CNTRL OR S TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...SW THROUGH NE TX INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY...

RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL TX WARM SECTOR
BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...SOME INCREASE IN MID-UPPER FLOW WILL
OCCUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH. DEEP LAYER WIND
PROFILES WILL BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
STORMS. A MIX OF MULTICELL LINES AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT ADVANCES SEWD INTO THE
DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS

...LOWER-MID MS VALLEY REGIONS...

STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN PERIOD OVER PARTS OF THIS REGION
WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL.
OWING TO SELY TRAJECTORIES FROM CP AIR EMANATING FROM SERN U.S.
SURFACE RIDGE...MOISTURE QUALITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED AND THE MOIST
AXIS WILL REMAIN NARROW IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...MODERATELY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP ALONG EWD ADVANCING FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA...

THREAT IN THIS REGION IS MORE CONDITIONAL DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR
ONGOING PRECIPITATION WITHIN ZONE OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. DEPENDING ON HOW
THE EARLY STORMS EVOLVE...SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A PORTION OF
THE WARM SECTOR TO DESTABILIZE. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD THE FRONT FROM NRN IL INTO SRN WI WITH A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.

..DIAL.. 04/23/2008

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KSGF [230740]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 230740
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
240 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0817 AM HAIL MARSHFIELD 37.34N 92.91W
04/22/2008 E0.88 INCH WEBSTER MO BROADCAST MEDIA

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND BROKEN WINDOWS REPORTED IN
MARSHFIELD. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

$$

WISE

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KEAX [230721]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS53 KEAX 230721
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
221 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1217 AM HAIL TONGANOXIE 39.11N 95.08W
04/22/2008 M0.75 INCH LEAVENWORTH KS PUBLIC

SEVERAL MINUTES OF DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS GUSTING INTO
THE 30 MPH RANGE.

1233 AM HAIL 1 S BASEHOR 39.11N 94.93W
04/22/2008 M0.88 INCH LEAVENWORTH KS EMERGENCY MNGR

1234 AM HAIL 4 W BONNER SPRINGS 39.05N 94.96W
04/22/2008 M1.00 INCH LEAVENWORTH KS EMERGENCY MNGR

QUARTER SIZE HAIL

0103 AM HAIL KANSAS CITY KS 39.12N 94.73W
04/22/2008 M0.88 INCH WYANDOTTE KS PUBLIC

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND ESTIMATED 35 MPH WINDS.

0114 AM HAIL 3 SSE KANSAS CITY 39.08N 94.53W
04/22/2008 E0.75 INCH JACKSON MO TRAINED SPOTTER

0114 AM HAIL KANSAS CITY 39.12N 94.55W
04/22/2008 E1.00 INCH JACKSON MO BROADCAST MEDIA

0.75 TO 1.00 INCH HAIL.

0129 AM HAIL 1 W INDEPENDENCE 39.09N 94.37W
04/22/2008 E1.00 INCH JACKSON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

AT 31ST AND BLUE RIDGE.

0132 AM HAIL INDEPENDENCE 39.09N 94.35W
04/22/2008 E1.25 INCH JACKSON MO TRAINED SPOTTER

0132 AM HAIL INDEPENDENCE 39.09N 94.35W
04/22/2008 E1.00 INCH JACKSON MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

0153 AM HAIL BASEHOR 39.13N 94.93W
04/22/2008 M1.00 INCH LEAVENWORTH KS NWS EMPLOYEE

ONE INCH HAIL

0213 AM HAIL 6 N LEES SUMMIT 39.00N 94.38W
04/22/2008 E1.00 INCH JACKSON MO NWS EMPLOYEE

0213 AM HAIL 6 N LEES SUMMIT 39.00N 94.38W
04/22/2008 E1.00 INCH JACKSON MO NWS EMPLOYEE

0221 AM HAIL KANSAS CITY 39.12N 94.55W
04/22/2008 M1.50 INCH JACKSON MO TRAINED SPOTTER

23RD AND COLLEGE

0221 AM HAIL NAPOLEON 39.13N 94.09W
04/22/2008 E1.00 INCH LAFAYETTE MO TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER HAIL NW LAFAYETTE COUNTY

0230 AM HAIL 2 NE LENEXA 38.98N 94.76W
04/22/2008 E0.88 INCH JOHNSON KS TRAINED SPOTTER

0236 AM HAIL 5 NE FILLMORE 40.08N 94.91W
04/22/2008 E1.00 INCH ANDREW MO TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL SIZE AT LEAST 1 INCH.

0240 AM HAIL OLATHE 38.89N 94.81W
04/22/2008 M0.88 INCH JOHNSON KS PUBLIC

0247 AM HAIL 4 SE OLATHE 38.85N 94.76W
04/22/2008 M0.75 INCH JOHNSON KS PUBLIC

2 EPISODES OF DIME SIZE HAIL ABOUT 5 MINUTES APART.
LOCATION OF 151ST AND PHLUMM IN OLATHE.

0313 AM HAIL BLUE SPRINGS 39.02N 94.28W
04/22/2008 E1.00 INCH JACKSON MO PUBLIC

MOSTLY PEA SIZE WITH A FEW QUARTER SIZE HAILSTONES.

0324 AM HAIL CLEVELAND 38.68N 94.60W
04/22/2008 E1.00 INCH CASS MO LAW ENFORCEMENT

0330 AM HAIL FREEMAN 38.62N 94.51W
04/22/2008 E1.00 INCH CASS MO BROADCAST MEDIA

QUARTER SIZE HAIL

0350 AM HAIL KINGSVILLE 38.74N 94.07W
04/22/2008 E1.25 INCH JOHNSON MO CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

MAS

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KEAX [230720]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KEAX 230720
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
220 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0236 AM HAIL 5 NE FILLMORE 40.08N 94.91W
04/22/2008 E1.00 INCH ANDREW MO TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL SIZE AT LEAST 1 INCH.

&&

$$

MAS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0695

ACUS11 KWNS 230702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230701
OKZ000-TXZ000-230830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0695
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX INTO WRN/CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 230701Z - 230830Z

SHOULD DEVELOPING TSTMS BECOME SUSTAINED...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR LARGE HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER WICHITA...ARCHER AND BAYLOR
COUNTIES IN NWRN TX INTO COTTON COUNTY IN SWRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING VERY NEAR TO SURFACE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER SWRN TX NEWD ALONG A FSI TO TUL LINE.
HOWEVER...RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DEVELOPING TSTMS ARE
LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED AND ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ WHICH IS
INTENSIFYING FROM W-CNTRL TX NWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER PRESENT TSTMS WILL BECOME
SUSTAINED...THOUGH 23/00Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A WEAK QPF
SIGNAL OVER MAINLY WRN OK BETWEEN 23/06-/23/12Z. AIR MASS ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE EARLY THIS MORNING OWING
TO STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
MUCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY IN CONJUNCTION WITH
30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SEVERE TSTMS /INCLUDING ELEVATED SUPERCELLS/ WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
BEING LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 04/23/2008

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

33519864 33469937 34139966 35369965 35919951 36249855
36299787 35949749 35199719 34679716 33789760

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 230618
SWODY2
SPC AC 230616

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR ADDITION OF A SIG AREA

...SYNOPSIS...

LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY AND
THE GREAT LAKES LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SRN PIECE OF THIS TROUGH
IS FORECAST SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND A PORTION OF
THE SERN STATES. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CNTRL
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION...REACHING THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY
EVENING. WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
MAY MOVE THROUGH S TX.

COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STRETCH FROM NW MN SWWD THROUGH SD AND NRN
ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT THROUGH
THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE
SWD. DRYLINE WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS AND MIX EWD DURING THE DAY. SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG PORTION OF FRONT OVER WRN KS IN RESPONSE TO VERTICAL
MOTION ATTENDING UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES. THE
FRONT WILL SURGE SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AS THE LOW LIFTS NEWD
OVERNIGHT.

...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY...

BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL PERSIST IN WARM SECTOR FROM
TX NWD THROUGH OK AND KS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S MORE LIKELY INTO
ERN NEB AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY. STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER A
LARGE PART OF THE CNTRL THROUGH NRN PLAINS AND MID-UPPER MS VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ACCOMPANYING
THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET. ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT NE WITH TIME...ALLOWING PORTIONS OF UPSTREAM WARM SECTOR
TO DESTABILIZE WHERE LOW CLOUDS CAN MIX OUT. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE MOIST AXIS WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

INITIAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EWD LEAVING WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVER DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
INCREASE TOWARD EVENING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH
AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND DEEP ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EWD. STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND SHIFT SEWD
OVERNIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP...BUT ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY GROW UPSTREAM INTO AN MCS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
THE MAIN THREATS.

THREAT WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS KS IS MORE CONDITIONAL DUE TO PRESENCE
OF A STRONGER CAP. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EWD AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS BY EARLY EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE
OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY...ALONG WITH A WINDOW FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...MID MS VALLEY...

STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS REGION IN
ATTENDANCE WITH EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...WITH STORMS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW...AND THIS COULD
LIMIT OVERALL THREAT. IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP IN THIS REGION THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...AN UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...SRN PLAINS...

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER CNTRL AND S TX. PRESENCE OF
CAP RESULTING FROM THE EML WILL PROBABLY LIMIT OVERALL THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME MIGHT ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. WEAK
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST WLY MID-UPPER FLOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
OF UPDRAFT ROTATION. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL IF STORMS
MANAGED TO DEVELOP. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING INITIATION POTENTIAL AND
POSSIBLY LIMITED STORM COVERAGE PRECLUDES INTRODUCING MORE THAN 5%
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 04/23/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230558
SWODY1
SPC AC 230556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS
NWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
LOWER 48 STATES TODAY AS A DEEP TROUGH MOVES INLAND TO THE WRN U.S.
AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE SHIFTS EWD EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z
THURSDAY. SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ATTENDANT TO THE WRN
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND EMBEDDED WITHIN SRN STREAM JET ARE FORECAST TO
TRANSLATE INTO THE PLAINS...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER ERN WY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LEE
TROUGH/DRY LINE EXTENDING SWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING WRN TROUGH. A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM SD INTO CENTRAL MN...AND THEN RETREAT NWD
INTO ND/NRN MN THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
WINDS AS WY LOW/MID LEVEL TROUGH TRACK NEWD. FARTHER S...A WARM
FRONT THIS MORNING RESIDING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO OK SHOULD
SPREAD NWD...BUT BECOME DIFFUSE AS A BROAD LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
PLAINS ADVECTING MOISTURE NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR..

IN THE NORTHEAST...AN UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES/NRN ONTARIO...WILL TRACK EWD BREAKING DOWN THE NRN
EXTENT OF THE ERN RIDGE OVER QUEBEC INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SEWD
THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...REACHING ERN ME TO NRN VA BY
12Z THURSDAY.

...SRN PLAINS...
A LEAD SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER
FAR W TX AT 12Z TODAY AND MOVE EWD INTO W TX BY 18Z AND REACH
OK/ARKLATEX REGION TOWARD 24/00Z...WITH A SECOND IMPULSE...
CURRENTLY APPROACHING SRN CA/NRN BAJA...REACHING W TX REGION BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CURRENTLY
EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS. ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LEAD SRN
STREAM IMPULSE SHOULD BE AIDING IN ONGOING TSTMS AT 12Z TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF W TX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
AND 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THIS REGION WILL RESULT IN A
HAIL THREAT WITH THIS EARLY ACTIVITY. AS THIS LEAD SYSTEM
TRANSLATES EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND N TX. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH
30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH DEGREE TO WHICH BOUNDARY LAYER
CAN DESTABILIZE ACROSS W/NW TX IN WAKE OF MORNING TSTMS... ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO SRN CA/NRN BAJA TROUGH REACHING THIS REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON WILL MAINTAIN HEIGHT FALLS WITH NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE. 50 KT WSWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL
SUSTAIN STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NW TX BETWEEN THE SRN TX PANHANDLE TO
EAST OF MAF TO ABI. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS N TX/SRN
OK AS THIS LATTER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS WITH
AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

IF THE MORNING ACTIVITY IS NOT AS EXTENSIVE IN COVERAGE AS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THEN MUCH STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN UPGRADE TO A
MODERATE RISK.

...CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INLAND OVER NRN CA PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEWD WITHIN BAND OF STRONG SWLY
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW REACHING WY BY 24/00Z AND THEN INTO THE NRN
PLAINS TONIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /8-9 C/KM/ WILL SPREAD
EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS ATOP WRN EXTENT OF MOISTURE
RETURN...RESULTING IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG/. THIS INSTABILITY WILL EXTEND ALONG AND E
OF DRY LINE FROM ERN WY/SWRN SD SURFACE LOW SWD THROUGH ERN CO/WRN
KS TO SRN HIGH PLAINS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENT AND DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TSTMS. A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND...PERHAPS...BRIEF TORNADOES.

STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ OVER NEB TO ERN DAKOTAS/MN TONIGHT WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING LOW LEVEL WAA AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO MN AFTER
DARK. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TEND TO STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF
DAY TIME HEATING...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MODEST EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AS STORMS SPREAD
NEWD OVERNIGHT.

...ARKLATEX REGION NWD TO IA...
SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TO LOWER MO VALLEY TODAY SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY
AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THIS REGION. MODELS SUGGEST TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG ERN EXTENT OF EML WHERE THE CAP
SHOULD BE WEAKER. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF
LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TUESDAY CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MAY
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY. WEAK TO MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH ISOLATED HAIL/STRONGER
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

ASCENT ATTENDANT TO LEAD SRN STREAM IMPULSE AND WAA ALONG
STRENGTHENING LLJ FROM NERN TX TO IA THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT AN EXTENSIVE ZONE OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE ARKLATEX REGION TO IA. ISOLATED HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...UPSTATE NY SWWD TO NWRN PA/NERN OH...
WNWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION
TODAY AS ONTARIO UPPER TROUGH MOVES EWD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 50S...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION...
ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT NEWD AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES /NERN OH TO WRN AND UPSTATE NY/. ALTHOUGH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE WEAK...THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SURFACE HEATING SUGGEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

..PETERS/JEWELL.. 04/23/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 230543
SWODY2
SPC AC 230540

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY
WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY AND
THE GREAT LAKES LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SRN PIECE OF THIS TROUGH
IS FORECAST SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND A PORTION OF
THE SERN STATES. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CNTRL
ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION...REACHING THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY
EVENING. WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
MAY MOVE THROUGH S TX.

COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STRETCH FROM NW MN SWWD THROUGH SD AND NRN
ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT THROUGH
THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE
SWD. DRYLINE WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS AND MIX EWD DURING THE DAY. SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG PORTION OF FRONT OVER WRN KS IN RESPONSE TO VERTICAL
MOTION ATTENDING UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES. THE
FRONT WILL SURGE SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AS THE LOW LIFTS NEWD
OVERNIGHT.

...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY...

BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL PERSIST IN WARM SECTOR FROM
TX NWD THROUGH OK AND KS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S MORE LIKELY INTO
ERN NEB AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY. STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER A
LARGE PART OF THE CNTRL THROUGH NRN PLAINS AND MID-UPPER MS VALLEY
EARLY THURSDAY WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ACCOMPANYING
THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET. ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT NE WITH TIME...ALLOWING PORTIONS OF UPSTREAM WARM SECTOR
TO DESTABILIZE WHERE LOW CLOUDS CAN MIX OUT. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE MOIST AXIS WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

INITIAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EWD LEAVING WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVER DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
INCREASE TOWARD EVENING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH
AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
INCREASING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND DEEP ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EWD. STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND SHIFT SEWD
OVERNIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP...BUT ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY GROW UPSTREAM INTO AN MCS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
THE MAIN THREATS.

THREAT WITH SWD EXTENT ACROSS KS IS MORE CONDITIONAL DUE TO PRESENCE
OF A STRONGER CAP. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EWD AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS BY EARLY EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE
OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY...ALONG WITH A WINDOW FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...MID MS VALLEY...

STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS REGION IN
ATTENDANCE WITH EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. HOWEVER...WITH STORMS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW...AND THIS COULD
LIMIT OVERALL THREAT. IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR MORE INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP IN THIS REGION THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...AN UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...SRN PLAINS...

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER CNTRL AND S TX. PRESENCE OF
CAP RESULTING FROM THE EML WILL PROBABLY LIMIT OVERALL THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME MIGHT ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. WEAK
SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST WLY MID-UPPER FLOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE
OF UPDRAFT ROTATION. PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL IF STORMS
MANAGED TO DEVELOP. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING INITIATION POTENTIAL AND
POSSIBLY LIMITED STORM COVERAGE PRECLUDES INTRODUCING MORE THAN 5%
SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 04/23/2008

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KSGF [230513]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KSGF 230513
LSRSGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1212 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0607 PM TSTM WND DMG CLEVER 37.03N 93.47W
04/22/2008 CHRISTIAN MO BROADCAST MEDIA

SIDING AND SHINGLES RIPPED OFF HOMES IN THE CITY OF
CLEVER. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

$$

WISE

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KSHV [230405]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KSHV 230405
LSRSHV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1105 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1020 PM HAIL GRAND CANE 32.08N 93.81W
04/22/2008 E0.88 INCH DE SOTO LA LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

CS

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