SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231231
OKZ000-TXZ000-231330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0696
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT WED APR 23 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PNHDL/WRN OK SWD INTO W-CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 231231Z - 231330Z
ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BETWEEN 13Z-15Z
WITH A THREAT OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL. A WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
SOMETIME THIS MORNING.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES PRIMARY SURFACE LOW W OF INK WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM OR QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NEWD TO NEAR LTS
AND INTO NERN OK. A 30-40 KT LLJ HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT
FROM WRN TX NWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...SUPPORTING A ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG IT/S AXIS. RECENT
TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR DATA SHOW DEEPENING CONVECTION/EARLY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING FROM PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND W-CNTRL
TX NEWD INTO SWRN OK. THIS IS LIKELY SIGNALING THAT THE LEADING
EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS WRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS
DEVELOPING WWD/NWWD INTO WRN TX.
12Z SOUNDINGS FROM AMA/MAF INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5-9.0 C/KM...
CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING...SUPPORTING
AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSTMS THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. GIVEN
THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
AND MODEST CLOUD BEARING SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.
..MEAD.. 04/23/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...
31990003 32150133 32680202 34410195 35250161 36020098
36340039 36539964 36069861 34489860 32259944
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