NWUS52 KJAX 090158
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
958 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0500 PM TSTM WND DMG WOODBINE 30.96N 81.72W
10/08/2012 CAMDEN GA 911 CALL CENTER
A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN IN WOODBINE. THE TIME OF DAMAGE WAS
BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY.
&&
$$
AENYEDI
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Monday, October 8, 2012
KMQT [090156]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 090156
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
956 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0805 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 W POINT AUX BARQUES 45.80N 86.40W
10/08/2012 M55 MPH SCHOOLCRAFT MI CO-OP OBSERVER
MEASURED AT PARENT BAY.
&&
$$
KLUBER
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LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
956 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0805 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 W POINT AUX BARQUES 45.80N 86.40W
10/08/2012 M55 MPH SCHOOLCRAFT MI CO-OP OBSERVER
MEASURED AT PARENT BAY.
&&
$$
KLUBER
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KJAX [090146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KJAX 090146
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
945 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0915 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 ESE RAIFORD 30.04N 82.17W
10/07/2012 BRADFORD FL TRAINED SPOTTER
A SPOTTER REPORTED TREE DAMAGE IN THE NEW RIVER AREA FROM
THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
0915 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 S RAIFORD 30.02N 82.23W
10/07/2012 M1.75 INCH BRADFORD FL TRAINED SPOTTER
MINOR STREET FLOODING WAS OBSERVED ALONG COUNTY ROAD NW
235. A SPOTTER MEASURED 1.75 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL.
&&
$$
AENYEDI
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
945 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0915 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 ESE RAIFORD 30.04N 82.17W
10/07/2012 BRADFORD FL TRAINED SPOTTER
A SPOTTER REPORTED TREE DAMAGE IN THE NEW RIVER AREA FROM
THUNDERSTORM WINDS.
0915 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 S RAIFORD 30.02N 82.23W
10/07/2012 M1.75 INCH BRADFORD FL TRAINED SPOTTER
MINOR STREET FLOODING WAS OBSERVED ALONG COUNTY ROAD NW
235. A SPOTTER MEASURED 1.75 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL.
&&
$$
AENYEDI
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KTFX [090141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS55 KTFX 090141
LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
741 PM MDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0730 PM SNOW 18 SSW FORESTGROVE 46.77N 109.28W
10/08/2012 E1.0 INCH FERGUS MT TRAINED SPOTTER
1 INCH NEW SNOW TODAY... 0.56 INCHES MEASURED
PRECIPITATION SINCE MIDNIGHT.
&&
$$
PN
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LSRTFX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
741 PM MDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0730 PM SNOW 18 SSW FORESTGROVE 46.77N 109.28W
10/08/2012 E1.0 INCH FERGUS MT TRAINED SPOTTER
1 INCH NEW SNOW TODAY... 0.56 INCHES MEASURED
PRECIPITATION SINCE MIDNIGHT.
&&
$$
PN
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KJAX [090117]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KJAX 090117
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
917 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0915 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 ENE NEWBERRY 29.66N 82.55W
10/07/2012 ALACHUA FL TRAINED SPOTTER
TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN A NEIGHBORHOOD. THE SPOTTER
REPORTED NUMEROUS BRANCHES DOWN IN HER YARD.
&&
$$
AENYEDI
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
917 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0915 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 ENE NEWBERRY 29.66N 82.55W
10/07/2012 ALACHUA FL TRAINED SPOTTER
TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN IN A NEIGHBORHOOD. THE SPOTTER
REPORTED NUMEROUS BRANCHES DOWN IN HER YARD.
&&
$$
AENYEDI
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KMQT [090115]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 090115
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
915 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E FAIRPORT 45.62N 86.66W
10/08/2012 M47 MPH DELTA MI C-MAN STATION
AT THE FAIRPORT MARINE SITE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37MPH
ALSO MEASURED.
&&
$$
KLUBER
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LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
915 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E FAIRPORT 45.62N 86.66W
10/08/2012 M47 MPH DELTA MI C-MAN STATION
AT THE FAIRPORT MARINE SITE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37MPH
ALSO MEASURED.
&&
$$
KLUBER
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KMQT [090112]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 090112
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
911 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0824 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NE SEUL CHOIX POINT 45.97N 85.87W
10/08/2012 M45 MPH SCHOOLCRAFT MI C-MAN STATION
MEASURED AT PORT INLAND. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30MPH.
&&
$$
KLUBER
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LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
911 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0824 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NE SEUL CHOIX POINT 45.97N 85.87W
10/08/2012 M45 MPH SCHOOLCRAFT MI C-MAN STATION
MEASURED AT PORT INLAND. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30MPH.
&&
$$
KLUBER
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 090034
SWODY1
SPC AC 090032
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2012
VALID 090100Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS WILL MOVE
QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A BELT OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW
JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE COAST OF NC AND VA WILL HELP THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO PERSIST ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WEAK INSTABILITY IN A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S F SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS
FROM APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CONUS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED THIS EVENING OR
TONIGHT.
..BROYLES.. 10/09/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 090032
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2012
VALID 090100Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS WILL MOVE
QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A BELT OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW
JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE COAST OF NC AND VA WILL HELP THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO PERSIST ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WEAK INSTABILITY IN A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S F SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS
FROM APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CONUS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED THIS EVENING OR
TONIGHT.
..BROYLES.. 10/09/2012
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KMQT [082341]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 082341
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
741 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0620 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E FAIRPORT 45.62N 86.66W
10/08/2012 M45 MPH DELTA MI C-MAN STATION
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30MPH.
&&
$$
KLUBER
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LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
741 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0620 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 E FAIRPORT 45.62N 86.66W
10/08/2012 M45 MPH DELTA MI C-MAN STATION
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30MPH.
&&
$$
KLUBER
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KGRB [082250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KGRB 082250
LSRGRB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
550 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0505 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WASHINGTON ISLAND 45.38N 86.90W
10/08/2012 M48.00 MPH DOOR WI CO-OP OBSERVER
&&
$$
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LSRGRB
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
550 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0505 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WASHINGTON ISLAND 45.38N 86.90W
10/08/2012 M48.00 MPH DOOR WI CO-OP OBSERVER
&&
$$
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KMQT [082211]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS53 KMQT 082211
LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
611 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0605 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 W POINT AUX BARQUES 45.80N 86.40W
10/08/2012 M45 MPH SCHOOLCRAFT MI CO-OP OBSERVER
CURRENTLY GUSTING OVER 40 MPH.
&&
$$
KLUBER
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LSRMQT
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
611 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0605 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 W POINT AUX BARQUES 45.80N 86.40W
10/08/2012 M45 MPH SCHOOLCRAFT MI CO-OP OBSERVER
CURRENTLY GUSTING OVER 40 MPH.
&&
$$
KLUBER
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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2028
ACUS11 KWNS 082155
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082155
FLZ000-090030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2028
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 082155Z - 090030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA INTO EARLY EVENING. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW
IS NOT NEEDED. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO IMPACT PARTS OF SW
FL.
DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR
JACKSONVILLE TO E OF ST. PETERSBURG TO SE OF NAPLES. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...THOUGH RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND
MODESTLY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO GENERALLY
MODERATE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WITH
STRONGER INSTABILITY FOUND ACROSS SOUTH FL WHERE GREATER INSOLATION
HAS OCCURRED. ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM TAMPA TO
MELBOURNE...VWP DATA SUGGEST AROUND 15-30 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR
WHICH WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL MULTICELL STRUCTURES WITH STRONG
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA.
FARTHER SOUTH...WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW PER MIAMI VWP DATA WOULD
SUGGEST A MORE PULSE-LIKE MODE. HOWEVER...LIMITED STORM MOTION WITH
THE WEAKER FLOW REGIME WILL SUPPORT A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FROM ERN
CHARLOTTE/WRN GLADES COUNTIES SWD INTO WRN COLLIER COUNTY...WHERE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTERACTING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
..COHEN/MEAD.. 10/08/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 27908050 27438056 26568078 26048129 26078163 26448180
27428185 27908217 28368212 28938186 29578171 30148162
30558165 30658152 30618138 30478136 29698118 28928083
28628061 27908050
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SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082155
FLZ000-090030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2028
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 082155Z - 090030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA INTO EARLY EVENING. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW
IS NOT NEEDED. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO IMPACT PARTS OF SW
FL.
DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR
JACKSONVILLE TO E OF ST. PETERSBURG TO SE OF NAPLES. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...THOUGH RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND
MODESTLY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO GENERALLY
MODERATE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...WITH
STRONGER INSTABILITY FOUND ACROSS SOUTH FL WHERE GREATER INSOLATION
HAS OCCURRED. ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM TAMPA TO
MELBOURNE...VWP DATA SUGGEST AROUND 15-30 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR
WHICH WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL MULTICELL STRUCTURES WITH STRONG
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA.
FARTHER SOUTH...WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW PER MIAMI VWP DATA WOULD
SUGGEST A MORE PULSE-LIKE MODE. HOWEVER...LIMITED STORM MOTION WITH
THE WEAKER FLOW REGIME WILL SUPPORT A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FROM ERN
CHARLOTTE/WRN GLADES COUNTIES SWD INTO WRN COLLIER COUNTY...WHERE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTERACTING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
..COHEN/MEAD.. 10/08/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 27908050 27438056 26568078 26048129 26078163 26448180
27428185 27908217 28368212 28938186 29578171 30148162
30558165 30658152 30618138 30478136 29698118 28928083
28628061 27908050
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KJAX [082148]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KJAX 082148
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
548 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0541 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N PALM COAST 29.60N 81.21W
10/08/2012 E4.02 INCH FLAGLER FL TRAINED SPOTTER
HEAVY RAIN REPOTED AT 6 BURCHWOOD PLACE IN PALM COAST
&&
$$
AWALKER
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
548 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0541 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 N PALM COAST 29.60N 81.21W
10/08/2012 E4.02 INCH FLAGLER FL TRAINED SPOTTER
HEAVY RAIN REPOTED AT 6 BURCHWOOD PLACE IN PALM COAST
&&
$$
AWALKER
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KJAX [082034]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KJAX 082034
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
434 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0432 PM FLOOD PALM COAST 29.57N 81.21W
10/08/2012 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR
FLOODING HAS COVERED A PORTION OF BIRD OF PARADISE DRIVE
BETWEEN THE BURNING BUSH DRIVE INTERSECTIONS.
&&
$$
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
434 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0432 PM FLOOD PALM COAST 29.57N 81.21W
10/08/2012 FLAGLER FL EMERGENCY MNGR
FLOODING HAS COVERED A PORTION OF BIRD OF PARADISE DRIVE
BETWEEN THE BURNING BUSH DRIVE INTERSECTIONS.
&&
$$
LSTRUBLE
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KJAX [082021]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KJAX 082021
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
420 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0417 PM HEAVY RAIN PALM COAST 29.57N 81.21W
10/08/2012 E5.00 INCH FLAGLER FL PUBLIC
REPORT RELAYED BY MEDIA
&&
$$
LSTRUBLE
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
420 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0417 PM HEAVY RAIN PALM COAST 29.57N 81.21W
10/08/2012 E5.00 INCH FLAGLER FL PUBLIC
REPORT RELAYED BY MEDIA
&&
$$
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 081923
SWODY1
SPC AC 081921
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2012
VALID 082000Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
ASIDE FROM A MINOR EWD ADJUSTMENT TO THE BACK EDGE OF LOWER THUNDER
PROBABILITY LINE...EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
LIGHTNING WITHIN DEEPER CONVECTION REMAIN. TSTM THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION AS SUBSIDENCE DEEPENS IN
THE WAKE OF PROGRESSIVE SFC BOUNDARY.
..DARROW.. 10/08/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MAJORITY
OF THE CONUS E OF THE ROCKIES...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW WILL
DRIFT EWD TOWARD NRN CA. A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME E OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH ONE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AS AN UPSTREAM WAVE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NRN PLAINS.
THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FL PENINSULA
AND THE IMMEDIATE SE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...AS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS
IS EXPECTED JUST OFF THE NC COAST BY EARLY TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE EJECTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.
A SWATH OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE ZONE OF WEAK
WAA/FRONTOGENESIS ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS...WHERE REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED MUCAPE GENERALLY
IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. THOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN
THE RANGE FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS...RATHER POOR LAPSE
RATES AND LITTLE INCREASE IN BUOYANCY SUGGEST THAT THE RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST.
FARTHER S INTO N FL...THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR /WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON /MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J PER KG/. THOUGH MODEST VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ALOFT...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE UNLIKELY TO
INCREASE FROM NEAR 6 C/KM OBSERVED THIS MORNING AS MIDLEVEL
MOISTENING OCCURS...AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. THESE
FACTORS...IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH CLOUDS INTERFERING WITH SURFACE
HEATING...SUGGEST THAT ANY DAMAGING WIND/HAIL RISK WILL BE TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
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SWODY1
SPC AC 081921
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT MON OCT 08 2012
VALID 082000Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
ASIDE FROM A MINOR EWD ADJUSTMENT TO THE BACK EDGE OF LOWER THUNDER
PROBABILITY LINE...EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
LIGHTNING WITHIN DEEPER CONVECTION REMAIN. TSTM THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM W-E ACROSS THE REGION AS SUBSIDENCE DEEPENS IN
THE WAKE OF PROGRESSIVE SFC BOUNDARY.
..DARROW.. 10/08/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MAJORITY
OF THE CONUS E OF THE ROCKIES...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW WILL
DRIFT EWD TOWARD NRN CA. A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME E OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH ONE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AS AN UPSTREAM WAVE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NRN PLAINS.
THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FL PENINSULA
AND THE IMMEDIATE SE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...AS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS
IS EXPECTED JUST OFF THE NC COAST BY EARLY TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE EJECTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.
A SWATH OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE ZONE OF WEAK
WAA/FRONTOGENESIS ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS...WHERE REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED MUCAPE GENERALLY
IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. THOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN
THE RANGE FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS...RATHER POOR LAPSE
RATES AND LITTLE INCREASE IN BUOYANCY SUGGEST THAT THE RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST.
FARTHER S INTO N FL...THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR /WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON /MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J PER KG/. THOUGH MODEST VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ALOFT...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE UNLIKELY TO
INCREASE FROM NEAR 6 C/KM OBSERVED THIS MORNING AS MIDLEVEL
MOISTENING OCCURS...AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. THESE
FACTORS...IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH CLOUDS INTERFERING WITH SURFACE
HEATING...SUGGEST THAT ANY DAMAGING WIND/HAIL RISK WILL BE TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 081648
SWODY2
SPC AC 081647
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2012
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...OH VALLEY...
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE ASCENT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AHEAD
OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MID LEVEL
SATURATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD ALONG A
NARROW CORRIDOR FROM SRN IL INTO SRN OH. GIVEN THE STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES THERE WILL LIKELY BE WEAK INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT
FOR SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION...SOME OF IT POSSIBLY DEEP ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.
...FL...
NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA DURING THE
DAY2 PERIOD WHICH SHOULD DRIVE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY TOWARD THE FL
STRAITS. PRIOR TO THE WIND SHIFT DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCT TSTM
ACTIVITY.
..DARROW.. 10/08/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 081647
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2012
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...OH VALLEY...
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE ASCENT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AHEAD
OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MID LEVEL
SATURATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD ALONG A
NARROW CORRIDOR FROM SRN IL INTO SRN OH. GIVEN THE STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES THERE WILL LIKELY BE WEAK INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT
FOR SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION...SOME OF IT POSSIBLY DEEP ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.
...FL...
NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA DURING THE
DAY2 PERIOD WHICH SHOULD DRIVE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY TOWARD THE FL
STRAITS. PRIOR TO THE WIND SHIFT DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCT TSTM
ACTIVITY.
..DARROW.. 10/08/2012
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 081630
SWODY1
SPC AC 081628
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2012
VALID 081630Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MAJORITY
OF THE CONUS E OF THE ROCKIES...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW WILL
DRIFT EWD TOWARD NRN CA. A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME E OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH ONE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AS AN UPSTREAM WAVE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NRN PLAINS.
THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FL PENINSULA
AND THE IMMEDIATE SE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...AS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS
IS EXPECTED JUST OFF THE NC COAST BY EARLY TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE EJECTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.
A SWATH OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE ZONE OF WEAK
WAA/FRONTOGENESIS ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS...WHERE REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED MUCAPE GENERALLY
IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. THOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN
THE RANGE FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS...RATHER POOR LAPSE
RATES AND LITTLE INCREASE IN BUOYANCY SUGGEST THAT THE RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST.
FARTHER S INTO N FL...THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR /WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON /MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J PER KG/. THOUGH MODEST VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ALOFT...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE UNLIKELY TO
INCREASE FROM NEAR 6 C/KM OBSERVED THIS MORNING AS MIDLEVEL
MOISTENING OCCURS...AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. THESE
FACTORS...IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH CLOUDS INTERFERING WITH SURFACE
HEATING...SUGGEST THAT ANY DAMAGING WIND/HAIL RISK WILL BE TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..THOMPSON.. 10/08/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 081628
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2012
VALID 081630Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MAJORITY
OF THE CONUS E OF THE ROCKIES...WHILE A SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW WILL
DRIFT EWD TOWARD NRN CA. A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME E OF THE
ROCKIES...WITH ONE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION...AS AN UPSTREAM WAVE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NRN PLAINS.
THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FL PENINSULA
AND THE IMMEDIATE SE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...AS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS
IS EXPECTED JUST OFF THE NC COAST BY EARLY TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE EJECTING MIDLEVEL TROUGH TO THE MID ATLANTIC.
A SWATH OF ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE ZONE OF WEAK
WAA/FRONTOGENESIS ABOVE THE SHALLOW COOL AIR MASS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS...WHERE REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEALED MUCAPE GENERALLY
IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. THOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE IN
THE RANGE FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS...RATHER POOR LAPSE
RATES AND LITTLE INCREASE IN BUOYANCY SUGGEST THAT THE RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST.
FARTHER S INTO N FL...THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR /WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON /MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J PER KG/. THOUGH MODEST VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ALOFT...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE UNLIKELY TO
INCREASE FROM NEAR 6 C/KM OBSERVED THIS MORNING AS MIDLEVEL
MOISTENING OCCURS...AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. THESE
FACTORS...IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH CLOUDS INTERFERING WITH SURFACE
HEATING...SUGGEST THAT ANY DAMAGING WIND/HAIL RISK WILL BE TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
..THOMPSON.. 10/08/2012
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 081231
SWODY1
SPC AC 081229
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2012
VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD...LARGELY CONFLUENT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF
THE CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM REX BLOCK OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC. A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER W TN/NRN MS WILL MOVE ENE TO THE
CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY...AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY
12Z TUE.
AT LWR LVLS...COOL AND/OR DRY AIR WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS...IN
WAKE OF RECENT POLAR COLD FRONT. MARITIME TROPICAL AIR
WILL...HOWEVER...PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO ENE TO OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST. SCTD AREAS OF DIURNALLY
ENHANCED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
...SE U.S...
SCTD AREAS OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH TUE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER THE FL PENINSULA.
OTHER STORMS MAY FORM IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM SE GA
INTO THE CAROLINAS/ERN MID ATLANTIC AS ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TN VLY UPR IMPULSE.
LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
AND MODEST SFC HEATING/CLOUDS. THUS...PROSPECTS FOR SVR WEATHER
APPEAR LOW...DESPITE PRESENCE OF APPRECIABLE SHEAR OVER THE
CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC...AND RICH MOISTURE IN FL/SE GA.
...NRN CA LATER TODAY/TNGT...
UPR LOW OF REX BLOCK WILL CONTINUE EDGING ESE TOWARD THE NRN CA CST.
WHILE AN ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE
NRN CA CST LATER IN THE PERIOD...OVERALL RISK APPEARS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A CATEGORICAL THUNDER AREA. IN THE MEAN TIME...STEEP MID LVL
LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NRN CA
THIS AFTN ON THE NE FRINGE OF THE UPR LOW. A ROGUE STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT SPARSE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
SUSTAINED DIURNAL TSTMS OVER REGION.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 10/08/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 081229
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2012
VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD...LARGELY CONFLUENT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF
THE CONUS...DOWNSTREAM FROM REX BLOCK OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC. A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER W TN/NRN MS WILL MOVE ENE TO THE
CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY...AND TO THE NEW ENGLAND CST BY
12Z TUE.
AT LWR LVLS...COOL AND/OR DRY AIR WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS...IN
WAKE OF RECENT POLAR COLD FRONT. MARITIME TROPICAL AIR
WILL...HOWEVER...PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO ENE TO OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST. SCTD AREAS OF DIURNALLY
ENHANCED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
...SE U.S...
SCTD AREAS OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTMS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH TUE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER THE FL PENINSULA.
OTHER STORMS MAY FORM IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM SE GA
INTO THE CAROLINAS/ERN MID ATLANTIC AS ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE TN VLY UPR IMPULSE.
LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
AND MODEST SFC HEATING/CLOUDS. THUS...PROSPECTS FOR SVR WEATHER
APPEAR LOW...DESPITE PRESENCE OF APPRECIABLE SHEAR OVER THE
CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC...AND RICH MOISTURE IN FL/SE GA.
...NRN CA LATER TODAY/TNGT...
UPR LOW OF REX BLOCK WILL CONTINUE EDGING ESE TOWARD THE NRN CA CST.
WHILE AN ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE
NRN CA CST LATER IN THE PERIOD...OVERALL RISK APPEARS TOO LOW TO
WARRANT A CATEGORICAL THUNDER AREA. IN THE MEAN TIME...STEEP MID LVL
LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INTERIOR NRN CA
THIS AFTN ON THE NE FRINGE OF THE UPR LOW. A ROGUE STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT...BUT SPARSE MOISTURE EXPECTED TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR
SUSTAINED DIURNAL TSTMS OVER REGION.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 10/08/2012
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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS48 KWNS 080856
SWOD48
SPC AC 080855
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2012
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE TRANSITION TO A MORE
ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME LATE THIS COMING WORK WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS...A CLOSED LOW...MIGRATING INLAND
ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY MID WEEK...APPEARS LIKELY TO RAPIDLY
ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. AND
IT IS APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
SUGGESTIVE THAT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. THIS SEEMS MOST
PROBABLE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...THE NORTHWESTERN THIRDS OF MISSOURI...IOWA AND ADJACENT
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
HOWEVER...THIS TIME FRAME ALSO COINCIDES WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN SPREAD AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLE DATA...PARTICULARLY CONCERNING THE
SPEED OF THE UPPER IMPULSE. QUESTIONS ALSO LINGER CONCERNING THE
DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...WHICH COULD
BE IMPACTED SIGNIFICANTLY BY PRIOR CONVECTION. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS TO CONFIDENTLY ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
..KERR.. 10/08/2012
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SWOD48
SPC AC 080855
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2012
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE TRANSITION TO A MORE
ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW REGIME LATE THIS COMING WORK WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS...A CLOSED LOW...MIGRATING INLAND
ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY MID WEEK...APPEARS LIKELY TO RAPIDLY
ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. AND
IT IS APPEARING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
SUGGESTIVE THAT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. THIS SEEMS MOST
PROBABLE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...THE NORTHWESTERN THIRDS OF MISSOURI...IOWA AND ADJACENT
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
HOWEVER...THIS TIME FRAME ALSO COINCIDES WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN SPREAD AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLE DATA...PARTICULARLY CONCERNING THE
SPEED OF THE UPPER IMPULSE. QUESTIONS ALSO LINGER CONCERNING THE
DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...WHICH COULD
BE IMPACTED SIGNIFICANTLY BY PRIOR CONVECTION. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS TO CONFIDENTLY ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.
..KERR.. 10/08/2012
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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS03 KWNS 080718
SWODY3
SPC AC 080717
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2012
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
EASTERN PACIFIC BLOCKING APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SLOWLY BREAKING
DOWN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CUT-OFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES...MODELS DO SUGGEST IT WILL TURN EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO
SLOWLY ADVANCE INLAND. DOWNSTREAM...CONFLUENT BELTS OF WESTERLIES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE ZONAL...AS A VIGOROUS IMPULSE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES EAST NORTHEAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC
COAST...WHILE STALLING/WEAKENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...THOUGH...IT APPEARS ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN NOSING SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
...PARTS OF SRN PLAINS INTO LWR/MID MS VALLEY...
AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE ON SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND
PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BENEATH REMNANT
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXED LAYER
CAPE EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG...IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY VEERING WITH HEIGHT BENEATH MODEST
WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...BUT FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
BENEATH SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGING REMAINS UNCLEAR.
STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS A BIT MORE PROBABLE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...SUPPORTED BY AREAS OF
STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY
NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BETTER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PAINS...MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL...BUT COVERAGE IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN FOR
SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.
..KERR.. 10/08/2012
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SWODY3
SPC AC 080717
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2012
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
EASTERN PACIFIC BLOCKING APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SLOWLY BREAKING
DOWN DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CUT-OFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES...MODELS DO SUGGEST IT WILL TURN EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO
SLOWLY ADVANCE INLAND. DOWNSTREAM...CONFLUENT BELTS OF WESTERLIES
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
MORE ZONAL...AS A VIGOROUS IMPULSE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES EAST NORTHEAST OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC
COAST...WHILE STALLING/WEAKENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...THOUGH...IT APPEARS ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN NOSING SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.
...PARTS OF SRN PLAINS INTO LWR/MID MS VALLEY...
AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE ON SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND
PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BENEATH REMNANT
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MIXED LAYER
CAPE EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG...IN THE PRESENCE OF WIND PROFILES
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY VEERING WITH HEIGHT BENEATH MODEST
WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...BUT FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
BENEATH SOUTHERN STREAM RIDGING REMAINS UNCLEAR.
STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS A BIT MORE PROBABLE NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...SUPPORTED BY AREAS OF
STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY
NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BETTER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PAINS...MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
THE RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL...BUT COVERAGE IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN FOR
SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.
..KERR.. 10/08/2012
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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
ACUS01 KWNS 080545
SWODY1
SPC AC 080543
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2012
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NEWD
INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS TODAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
LOCATED FROM THE COAST OF SC SWWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WILL ADVANCE
STEADILY SEWD TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SE GA
AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS MAINLY
DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 40S TO MID
50S F. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY AS SCATTERED STORMS INITIATE
DUE TO SFC HEATING. WIND SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK KEEPING THE STORMS UNORGANIZED.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY OR TONIGHT.
..BROYLES/COHEN.. 10/08/2012
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SWODY1
SPC AC 080543
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2012
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NEWD
INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS TODAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
LOCATED FROM THE COAST OF SC SWWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WILL ADVANCE
STEADILY SEWD TODAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SE GA
AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS MAINLY
DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 40S TO MID
50S F. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY AS SCATTERED STORMS INITIATE
DUE TO SFC HEATING. WIND SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK KEEPING THE STORMS UNORGANIZED.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY OR TONIGHT.
..BROYLES/COHEN.. 10/08/2012
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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
ACUS02 KWNS 080501
SWODY2
SPC AC 080500
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2012
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BLOCK APPEARS LIKELY DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BUT WITH LITTLE YET TO FORCE AN EASTWARD
ACCELERATION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW NEAR CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION
CENTER MAY SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD...MOSTLY OFFSHORE ...IN RESPONSE
TO SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES PIVOTING AROUND IT.
DOWNSTREAM...THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFLUENT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...BUT THE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S BORDER BY
12Z TUESDAY...IS FORECAST TO TURN EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ONTARIO...THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
WHILE THE SURFACE CYCLONE ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE MIGRATES
NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND ACROSS THE HUDSON/JAMES BAY
REGION...A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...A MORE
SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
MAY COMMENCE...AS A PRECEDING COLD FRONT AND SURFACE RIDGE WEAKEN
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC.
...FLORIDA...
MODELS INDICATE THAT RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENINSULA MAY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF WEAK TO MODERATE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING TUESDAY. AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZES COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL AREAS.
...SRN PLAINS INTO MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS APPEARS
LIKELY TO REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BUT IT STILL
APPEARS THAT ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF WARM
ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
DESTABILIZATION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY INITIATE OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI BY LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE POSSIBLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT
SPREADS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THIS REGION ARE STILL SUGGESTIVE OF LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE
HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL.
..KERR.. 10/08/2012
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SWODY2
SPC AC 080500
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2012
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BLOCK APPEARS LIKELY DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BUT WITH LITTLE YET TO FORCE AN EASTWARD
ACCELERATION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW NEAR CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION
CENTER MAY SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD...MOSTLY OFFSHORE ...IN RESPONSE
TO SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES PIVOTING AROUND IT.
DOWNSTREAM...THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFLUENT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...BUT THE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S BORDER BY
12Z TUESDAY...IS FORECAST TO TURN EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ONTARIO...THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
WHILE THE SURFACE CYCLONE ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE MIGRATES
NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND ACROSS THE HUDSON/JAMES BAY
REGION...A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...A MORE
SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
MAY COMMENCE...AS A PRECEDING COLD FRONT AND SURFACE RIDGE WEAKEN
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC.
...FLORIDA...
MODELS INDICATE THAT RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENINSULA MAY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF WEAK TO MODERATE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING TUESDAY. AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZES COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL AREAS.
...SRN PLAINS INTO MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS APPEARS
LIKELY TO REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BUT IT STILL
APPEARS THAT ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF WARM
ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
DESTABILIZATION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY INITIATE OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI BY LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE POSSIBLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT
SPREADS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THIS REGION ARE STILL SUGGESTIVE OF LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE
HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL.
..KERR.. 10/08/2012
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KJAX [080415]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected
NWUS52 KJAX 080415 CCA
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1213 AM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 AM FLOOD 3 SSW ALACHUA 29.74N 82.50W
10/08/2012 ALACHUA FL 911 CALL CENTER
ALACHUA COUNTY 911 DISPATCH REPORTS FLOODED INTERSECTIONS
ALONG 143RD STREET AT NW 88TH PLACE IN THE VICINITY OF
ALACHUA AND AT 23RD AVENUE IN THE VICINITY OF JONESVILLE.
1025 PM HAIL 2 S GAINESVILLE 29.65N 82.34W
10/07/2012 U0.25 INCH ALACHUA FL 911 CALL CENTER
ALACHUA COUNTY 911 DISPATCH RELAYED A PUBLIC REPORT OF
HAIL OF UNKNOWN SIZE IN GAINESVILLE. TIME OF REPORT BASED
ON RADAR DATA.
&&
$$
NELSON
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1213 AM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 AM FLOOD 3 SSW ALACHUA 29.74N 82.50W
10/08/2012 ALACHUA FL 911 CALL CENTER
ALACHUA COUNTY 911 DISPATCH REPORTS FLOODED INTERSECTIONS
ALONG 143RD STREET AT NW 88TH PLACE IN THE VICINITY OF
ALACHUA AND AT 23RD AVENUE IN THE VICINITY OF JONESVILLE.
1025 PM HAIL 2 S GAINESVILLE 29.65N 82.34W
10/07/2012 U0.25 INCH ALACHUA FL 911 CALL CENTER
ALACHUA COUNTY 911 DISPATCH RELAYED A PUBLIC REPORT OF
HAIL OF UNKNOWN SIZE IN GAINESVILLE. TIME OF REPORT BASED
ON RADAR DATA.
&&
$$
NELSON
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KJAX [080413]: Preliminary Local Storm Report
NWUS52 KJAX 080413
LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1213 AM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 AM FLOOD 3 SSW ALACHUA 29.74N 82.50W
10/08/2012 ALACHUA FL 911 CALL CENTER
ALACHUA COUNTY 911 DISPATCH REPORTS FLOODED INTERSECTIONS
ALONG 143RD STREET AT NW 88TH PLACE AND IN THE VICINITY
OF ALACHUA AND AT 23RD AVENUE IN THE VICINITY OF
JONESVILLE.
1025 PM HAIL 2 S GAINESVILLE 29.65N 82.34W
10/07/2012 U0.25 INCH ALACHUA FL 911 CALL CENTER
ALACHUA COUNTY 911 DISPATCH RELAYED A PUBLIC REPORT OF
HAIL OF UNKNOWN SIZE IN GAINESVILLE. TIME OF REPORT BASED
ON RADAR DATA.
&&
$$
NELSON
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LSRJAX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1213 AM EDT MON OCT 08 2012
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 AM FLOOD 3 SSW ALACHUA 29.74N 82.50W
10/08/2012 ALACHUA FL 911 CALL CENTER
ALACHUA COUNTY 911 DISPATCH REPORTS FLOODED INTERSECTIONS
ALONG 143RD STREET AT NW 88TH PLACE AND IN THE VICINITY
OF ALACHUA AND AT 23RD AVENUE IN THE VICINITY OF
JONESVILLE.
1025 PM HAIL 2 S GAINESVILLE 29.65N 82.34W
10/07/2012 U0.25 INCH ALACHUA FL 911 CALL CENTER
ALACHUA COUNTY 911 DISPATCH RELAYED A PUBLIC REPORT OF
HAIL OF UNKNOWN SIZE IN GAINESVILLE. TIME OF REPORT BASED
ON RADAR DATA.
&&
$$
NELSON
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