DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 080501
SWODY2
SPC AC 080500

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2012

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BLOCK APPEARS LIKELY DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BUT WITH LITTLE YET TO FORCE AN EASTWARD
ACCELERATION OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW NEAR CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION
CENTER MAY SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD...MOSTLY OFFSHORE ...IN RESPONSE
TO SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES PIVOTING AROUND IT.

DOWNSTREAM...THE WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFLUENT ACROSS
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...BUT THE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...EXPECTED NEAR THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S BORDER BY
12Z TUESDAY...IS FORECAST TO TURN EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ONTARIO...THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
WHILE THE SURFACE CYCLONE ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE MIGRATES
NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND ACROSS THE HUDSON/JAMES BAY
REGION...A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...A MORE
SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
MAY COMMENCE...AS A PRECEDING COLD FRONT AND SURFACE RIDGE WEAKEN
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

...FLORIDA...
MODELS INDICATE THAT RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENINSULA MAY REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF WEAK TO MODERATE
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING TUESDAY. AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZES COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL AREAS.

...SRN PLAINS INTO MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS APPEARS
LIKELY TO REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BUT IT STILL
APPEARS THAT ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF WARM
ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
DESTABILIZATION FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY INITIATE OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI BY LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE POSSIBLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT
SPREADS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THIS REGION ARE STILL SUGGESTIVE OF LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE
HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL.

..KERR.. 10/08/2012

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