KILX [211834]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 211834
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
134 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0122 PM HAIL 4 SSW MARSHALL 39.34N 87.72W
05/21/2010 M0.88 INCH CLARK IL PUBLIC

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE

&&

$$

JRP

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KIWX [211833]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 211833
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
233 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0225 PM HAIL 1 S OSCEOLA 41.65N 86.08W
05/21/2010 M0.25 INCH ST. JOSEPH IN AMATEUR RADIO

SV

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1000532

$$

MSL

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KILX [211829]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 211829
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
129 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0122 PM HAIL MARSHALL 39.40N 87.69W
05/21/2010 M0.88 INCH CLARK IL PUBLIC

0122 PM HAIL 2 SW MARSHALL 39.38N 87.72W
05/21/2010 M1.75 INCH CLARK IL PUBLIC

&&

$$

JRP

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KIND [211825]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIND 211825
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
225 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0217 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 1 S LEBANON 40.04N 86.47W
05/21/2010 BOONE IN AMATEUR RADIO

AT INTERSTATE 65 NORTH

&&

$$

HEROLD

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KILX [211824]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 211824
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
123 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0118 PM HEAVY RAIN MARTINSVILLE 39.34N 87.88W
05/21/2010 M1.96 INCH CLARK IL MESONET

STORM TOTAL MEASURED OVER A 1 HOUR AND 15 MINUTE TIME
FRAME.

0120 PM HAIL MARSHALL 39.40N 87.69W
05/21/2010 M1.00 INCH CLARK IL TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JRP

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KFWD [211818]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 211818
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
118 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL ITALY 32.18N 96.88W
05/20/2010 E0.88 INCH ELLIS TX PUBLIC

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0647

ACUS11 KWNS 211806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211806
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-211900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0647
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AL...PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211806Z - 211900Z

STORMS ARE GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COULD
EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A SWD/SEWD MOVING LINE. IF THIS HAPPENS...A
WATCH PROBABLY WOULD BE NEEDED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM IL SWWD INTO AL/MS AREA WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
EWD...RESULTING IN RISING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THIS IS A
NEGATIVE FOR STRONG CONVECTION...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NORTH OF GWO
SEWD TO SEM SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN A
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING NEAR 3000
J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 30
KT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS. THE STORMS MAY
ORGANIZE INTO BANDS/LINES...WITH NWLY WINDS ALOFT LIKELY TO CARRY
LINES SWD/SEWD. IF THIS OCCURS...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COUPLED
WITH A SWD MOVING LINE INTO A VERY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

..IMY.. 05/21/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...

LAT...LON 34039022 33168825 32408633 31088614 30658848 30948925
33779107 34039022

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KFWD [211803]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 211803
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
103 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0520 PM HAIL FORRESTON 32.25N 96.87W
05/20/2010 E0.75 INCH ELLIS TX PUBLIC

PENNY SIZE AND BRANCHES DOWN

$$

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KILX [211747]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 211747
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1247 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1240 PM TORNADO 5 NE METCALF 39.85N 87.74W
05/21/2010 EDGAR IL PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF BRIEF TOUCHDOWN. NO DAMAGE REPORTED.

&&

$$

JRP

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KJAN [211747]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 211747
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1246 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0745 PM HAIL TINSLEY 32.73N 90.46W
05/20/2010 E1.00 INCH YAZOO MS PUBLIC

&&

$$

27

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KILX [211739]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 211739
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1238 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1220 PM TORNADO 1 S HUME 39.78N 87.87W
05/21/2010 EDGAR IL PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF BRIEF TOUCHDOWN. NO DAMAGE REPORTED.

1224 PM TORNADO 1 W METCALF 39.80N 87.83W
05/21/2010 EDGAR IL PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORT OF BRIEF TOUCHDOWN. NO DAMAGE REPORTED.

&&

$$

JRP

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KFWD [211737]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 211737
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1237 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 PM HAIL ITALY 32.18N 96.88W
05/20/2010 E0.75 INCH ELLIS TX PUBLIC

PENNY SIZE HAIL

$$

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 199

WWUS20 KWNS 211734
SEL9
SPC WW 211734
INZ000-220100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 199
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF INDIANA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL 900
PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF SOUTH BEND INDIANA TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF BLOOMINGTON
INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 198...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COMPACT MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT. WHILE CLOUDINESS HAS LIMITED DIABATIC
HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND COOLING ALOFT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT AND 30-35 KT OF
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS
CAPABLE OF MAINLY HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27025.

...MEAD

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KFWD [211728]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 211728
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1228 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 PM HAIL 3 N CORSICANA 32.14N 96.47W
05/20/2010 E1.75 INCH NAVARRO TX PUBLIC

ALONG EMHOUSE ROAD

$$

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KJAN [211719]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KJAN 211719
LSRJAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1219 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM HAIL LOUISVILLE 33.12N 89.05W
05/20/2010 E1.00 INCH WINSTON MS PUBLIC

&&

$$

27

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KBMX [211700]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KBMX 211700
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 N HALEYVILLE 34.30N 87.62W
05/21/2010 WINSTON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND BLOCKING WAKEFIELD ROAD IN MIDWAY
...JUST OFF AL HWY 13.

0730 AM FLASH FLOOD HALEYVILLE 34.24N 87.62W
05/21/2010 WINSTON AL TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER SEVERAL INCHES DEEP OVER HIGHWAY 13 IN NORTH SIDE
OF CITY.

0730 AM LIGHTNING HALEYVILLE 34.24N 87.62W
05/21/2010 WINSTON AL TRAINED SPOTTER

LIGHTNING STRIKE SET FIRE TO A WAREHOUSE IN DOWNTOWN
HALEYVILLE...BUILDING IS A TOTAL LOSS.

0830 AM FLASH FLOOD HAMILTON 34.14N 87.98W
05/21/2010 MARION AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLASH FLOODING ACROSS HWY 122 OUTSIDE CITY LIMITS OF
HAMILTON.

0930 AM TSTM WND DMG BIRMINGHAM 33.53N 86.80W
05/21/2010 JEFFERSON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

EMA REPORTS A FEW TREES DOWN IN DOWNTOWN BIRMINGHAM.

1107 AM FLASH FLOOD BIRMINGHAM 33.53N 86.80W
05/21/2010 JEFFERSON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

PARKER SPRINGS ST, ST JULIA ST, AND BESSEMER ST IN THE
BRIGHTON AREA FLOODED. ONE CAR SUBMERGED. NO WATER IN
HOMES.

1112 AM FLASH FLOOD BESSEMER 33.38N 86.96W
05/21/2010 JEFFERSON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

9TH AVE AT HWY 150, DARTMOUTH AVE AT 24TH ST, AND
CALENDER AT 8TH ST BARRICADED DUE TO FLOODING.

1125 AM FLASH FLOOD MCCALLA 33.35N 87.01W
05/21/2010 JEFFERSON AL AMATEUR RADIO

PERIMETER WAY AT MCCALLA ROAD, NEAR EXIT 1 ON I-459,
CREEK OUT OF BANK AND 3-4 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING OVER
THE ROAD.

&&

$$

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KBMX [211658]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 211658
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1158 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1107 AM FLASH FLOOD BIRMINGHAM 33.53N 86.80W
05/21/2010 JEFFERSON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

PARKER SPRINGS ST, ST JULIA ST, AND BESSEMER ST IN THE
BRIGHTON AREA FLOODED. ONE CAR SUBMERGED. NO WATER IN
HOMES.

1112 AM FLASH FLOOD BESSEMER 33.38N 86.96W
05/21/2010 JEFFERSON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

9TH AVE AT HWY 150, DARTMOUTH AVE AT 24TH ST, AND
CALENDER AT 8TH ST BARRICADED DUE TO FLOODING.

1125 AM FLASH FLOOD MCCALLA 33.35N 87.01W
05/21/2010 JEFFERSON AL AMATEUR RADIO

PERIMETER WAY AT MCCALLA ROAD, NEAR EXIT 1 ON I-459,
CREEK OUT OF BANK AND 3-4 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING OVER
THE ROAD.

&&

$$

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 198

WWUS20 KWNS 211653
SEL8
SPC WW 211653
ALZ000-GAZ000-220000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 198
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF EASTERN ALABAMA
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
800 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST NORTHWEST
OF AUBURN ALABAMA TO 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOULTRIE GEORGIA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...MATURE...BOWING MCS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SEWD ALONG
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TODAY WHERE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM SEWD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCELERATION/FORWARD-PROPAGATION WITH AN ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND
THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29035.

...MEAD

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KFWD [211643]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 211643
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1143 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM HAIL KEMP 32.45N 96.23W
05/20/2010 E1.00 INCH KAUFMAN TX SCHOOL OFFICIAL

ALONG HWY 175 IN KEMP

$$

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KFWD [211628]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 211628
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1127 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0210 PM HAIL SEAGOVILLE 32.63N 96.53W
05/20/2010 E1.00 INCH DALLAS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

$$

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KIWX [211627]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 211627
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1227 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1223 PM HAIL 8 S KNOX 41.18N 86.63W
05/21/2010 E0.25 INCH STARKE IN TRAINED SPOTTER

0.20 INCHES OF RAIN IN 10 MINUTES

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1000531

$$

MSL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211626
SWODY1
SPC AC 211625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY SWD
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS STRONG ERN
PACIFIC JET STREAK DIGS SEWD ALONG THE WEST COAST...EFFECTIVELY
SUPPORTING THE INTENSIFICATION OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WRN
STATES. WITHIN THIS BROADER-SCALE PATTERN...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW
OVER CNTRL ORE/NRN CA WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A NEGATIVELY-TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM PROGRESSES FROM THE
SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAINS.

...HIGH PLAINS...

MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM
CNTRL ND SWWD THROUGH SWRN SD...SRN WY TO CNTRL UT. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A LEE TROUGH
STRENGTHENS SWD ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE TO ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER.
INTENSIFYING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW E OF THIS LEE TROUGH WILL SERVE TO
ENHANCE THE NWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
DEW POINTS RISING THROUGH THE 50S OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...TO
60S FARTHER S. AT THE SAME TIME...STRENGTHENING SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN THE EWD PROGRESSION OF AN
EML ACROSS THE MOISTURE AXIS WITH MLCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-1500
J/KG AS FAR N AS THE PALMER DIVIDE AND CHEYENNE RIDGE...TO 1500-2000
J/KG OVER THE OK/TX PNHDLS AND W TX.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN TO THE W OF THE
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
HOWEVER...THESE DATA DO SUGGEST THAT AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST LIKELY NEAR THE ABOVE-MENTIONED STATIONARY
FRONT AND NRN EXTENSION OF LEE TROUGH OVER WY/NERN CO/NEB PNHDL.
HERE...THE COMBINATION OF 45-55 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL RESULT IN A KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
A FEW TORNADOES.

FARTHER S ALONG THE LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE...CONVECTIVE INITIATION
BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY APPRECIABLE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
MODERATELY STRONG LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
WILL EXIST SHOULD ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED LATER
TODAY.

...SERN STATES...

A COUPLE OF MCS/S ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER NRN GA AND NRN PARTS
OF AL/MS. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING DATA INDICATE THAT A MOIST AND
POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESIDES TO THE S OF A
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDING FROM N OF GWO TO
AUO TO AYS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS STRONG DIABATIC
HEATING SHOULD OCCUR TODAY ALONG AND TO THE S OF THIS
BOUNDARY...SUPPORTING MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WHILE REGION WILL
RESIDE ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD
ATTENDING OH VALLEY TROUGH...THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 30 KT OF DEEP
NWLY SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE ONGOING MCS/S TO DEVELOP
FORWARD-PROPAGATING CHARACTERISTICS. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT
THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR A CORRIDOR OF WIND DAMAGE MAY DEVELOP
TODAY FROM PARTS OF CNTRL AL INTO CNTRL/SRN GA AS THE WRN MCS
PROPAGATES SEWD ALONG THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

...OH/TN VALLEYS...

TSTMS ARE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING THIS MORNING OVER WRN IND ALONG
DEEPER WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIGRATORY UPPER TROUGH.
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOW THE DESTABILIZATION
PROCESS...THOUGH THE CONTINUED NWD FLUX OF 60+ F BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS AND MIDLEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
MODEST INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 500-1000
J/KG OVER PARTS OF IND/OH TO 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS KY/TN.

FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH COUPLED WITH
THE DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER A BROKEN BAND
OF TSTMS BY AFTERNOON FROM IND SWD INTO KY AND PERHAPS TN. VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..MEAD/HURLBUT.. 05/21/2010

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KFWD [211618]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 211618
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1118 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 PM HAIL COCKRELL HILL 32.72N 96.87W
05/20/2010 E1.75 INCH DALLAS TX SCHOOL OFFICIAL

GOLFBALL HAIL AT BISHOP DUNNE HIGH SCHOOL

$$

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KBMX [211616]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 211616
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1116 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM FLASH FLOOD HAMILTON 34.14N 87.98W
05/21/2010 MARION AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

FLASH FLOODING ACROSS HWY 122 OUTSIDE CITY LIMITS OF
HAMILTON.

&&

$$

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KFWD [211530]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 211530
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1030 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0524 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NE ANGUS 32.04N 96.41W
05/20/2010 NAVARRO TX BROADCAST MEDIA

SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE. 6 TO 12 INCH DIAMETER TREES
SNAPPED AND A SHEET METAL ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF OF AN OLD
GAS STATION

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0646

ACUS11 KWNS 211526
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211526
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-211630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0646
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL...NWRN KY...INDIANA AND WRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 211526Z - 211630Z

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE HOUR OR SO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SERN IL...NWRN KY AND INDIANA AND WRN OH...

MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW WAS SITUATED
IN CENTRAL IL...SHIFTING SLOWLY ENEWD TOWARD NWRN INDIANA. ALSO...
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN WRN IL...WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SWD FROM THE LOW.

DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WAS ALREADY AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE IL/INDIANA BORDER. HOWEVER...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SKIES BECOMING PARTY CLOUDY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SRN
IL. IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT LESS DENSE LOW CLOUDS FROM SERN IL
NEWD INTO CENTRAL IND/NWRN OH MAY DECREASE ENOUGH FOR SOME WARMING
AND MLCAPES TO REACH 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH UPPER FORCING AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 35 KT...SHOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.

..IMY.. 05/21/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...

LAT...LON 41538635 41458428 40928397 38648433 37448577 37308713
37648822 38608869 39908806 40918735 41538635

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KBMX [211511]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 211511
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1011 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 AM TSTM WND DMG BIRMINGHAM 33.53N 86.80W
05/21/2010 JEFFERSON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

EMA REPORTS A FEW TREES DOWN IN DOWNTOWN BIRMINGHAM.

&&

$$

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0645

ACUS11 KWNS 211446
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211446
GAZ000-ALZ000-211545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0645
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AL EWD INTO CENTRAL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 211446Z - 211545Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF ERN
AL ESEWD INTO SWRN/CENTRAL GA LATER THIS MORNING.

A SMALL BOW ECHO WAS LOCATED IN JEFFERSON COUNTY AL AND WAS MOVING
ESEWD AT 25-30 KT. THE WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM ALONG WITH 30 KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG SUGGESTS ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IS INHIBITING THE SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT.
HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES WARM TOWARD 80 DEGREES AND DESTABILIZES
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...STORM UPDRAFTS AND DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD INTENSIFY.
ONCE THIS HAPPENS...MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY. WIND
DAMAGE IS MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND FEED OF STRONG INSTABILITY FROM THE
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY FROM BHM TO AUO TO MCN SHOULD HELP TO
DRIVE THE STORMS MORE SEWD WITH TIME.

..IMY.. 05/21/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON 31498431 31808530 32248612 32758655 33318603 33558555
33488456 33098361 32018267 31428312 31498431

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KFWD [211437]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KFWD 211437
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
933 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0533 AM HAIL 2 W HUCKABAY 32.33N 98.33W
05/20/2010 E0.88 INCH ERATH TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED 2 MILES WEST OF HUCKABAY

0638 AM HAIL 5 S GRANBURY 32.38N 97.80W
05/20/2010 E0.75 INCH HOOD TX TRAINED SPOTTER

DIME SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED ON FM 2425 APPROXIMATELY 5
MILES SOUTH OF GRANBURY

0640 AM HAIL 5 SSW GRANBURY 32.38N 97.83W
05/20/2010 E0.88 INCH HOOD TX TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN PECAN PLANTATION.

1235 PM TSTM WND DMG 7 NE COMO 33.14N 95.38W
05/20/2010 HOPKINS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

DEBRIS REPORTED NEAR INTERSECTION OF I30 AND HWY 67.

0206 PM TORNADO 3 NW MIDLOTHIAN 32.51N 97.02W
05/20/2010 ELLIS TX OTHER FEDERAL

REPORTED FROM ARLINGTON AIRPORT TOWER OBSERVER. VIEWED 8
MILES TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

0210 PM TORNADO MIDLOTHIAN 32.48N 96.98W
05/20/2010 ELLIS TX AMATEUR RADIO

TORNADO REPORTED VIA HAMS AT HWY 67 AND HWY 287

0255 PM HAIL WAXAHACHIE 32.40N 96.85W
05/20/2010 E1.00 INCH ELLIS TX PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZE HAIL FELL IN WAXAHACHIE. TIME ESTIMATED
FROM RADAR.

0259 PM HAIL PALMER 32.43N 96.67W
05/20/2010 E1.00 INCH ELLIS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

ONE INCH HAIL REPORTED FM 878 AND EAST CAMPUS NEAR
PALMER

0337 PM HAIL ENNIS 32.33N 96.63W
05/20/2010 E1.00 INCH ELLIS TX BROADCAST MEDIA

QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN ENNIS REPORTED BY MEDIA

0349 PM HAIL CHATFIELD 32.25N 96.42W
05/20/2010 E1.00 INCH NAVARRO TX EMERGENCY MNGR

ONE INCH HAIL REPORTED NEAR CHATFIELD

0405 PM TSTM WND DMG ALMA 32.28N 96.55W
05/20/2010 ELLIS TX EMERGENCY MNGR

TWO 18 WHEELERS BLOWN OFF I-45 AND SOME TREE DAMAGE IN
ALMA

0425 PM HAIL 3 NW KERENS 32.16N 96.27W
05/20/2010 E1.25 INCH NAVARRO TX TRAINED SPOTTER

HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL 3 MI NW OF KERENS

0437 PM HAIL 2 S KERENS 32.10N 96.23W
05/20/2010 E0.88 INCH NAVARRO TX TRAINED SPOTTER

NICKEL HAIL REPORTED 5 MI SE OF POWELL (2 S OF KERENS)

0439 PM HAIL 2 S KERENS 32.10N 96.23W
05/20/2010 E1.00 INCH NAVARRO TX TRAINED SPOTTER

QUARTER SIZE HAIL 5 SE OF POWELL (2 S OF KERENS)

0510 PM HAIL CORSICANA 32.10N 96.47W
05/20/2010 E2.75 INCH NAVARRO TX PUBLIC

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS FELL IN CORSICANA.

0525 PM HAIL MUSTANG 32.01N 96.43W
05/20/2010 E1.75 INCH NAVARRO TX TRAINED SPOTTER

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN MUSTANG

0527 PM HAIL 1 E ANGUS 32.02N 96.41W
05/20/2010 E2.75 INCH NAVARRO TX EMERGENCY MNGR

BASEBALL SIZE HAIL 1 MI E OF ANGUS

0555 PM HAIL 6 ENE STREETMAN 31.90N 96.24W
05/20/2010 E0.75 INCH FREESTONE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

DIME SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN THE COMMUNITY OF SOUTHERN
OAKS

0626 PM HAIL TENNESSEE COLONY 31.86N 95.85W
05/20/2010 E1.00 INCH ANDERSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN TENNESSEE COLONY.

0654 PM HAIL 6 W PALESTINE 31.75N 95.73W
05/20/2010 E1.00 INCH ANDERSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN HARMONY.

0756 PM HAIL 1 SW FAIRFIELD 31.71N 96.18W
05/20/2010 E1.00 INCH FREESTONE TX TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL FELL FOR 2 MINUTES.

0823 PM HAIL CHINA SPRING 31.65N 97.32W
05/20/2010 E1.75 INCH MCLENNAN TX AMATEUR RADIO

GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL FELL IN CHINA SPRINGS

0823 PM HAIL 6 ENE LACY-LAKEVIEW 31.65N 97.01W
05/20/2010 E0.75 INCH MCLENNAN TX AMATEUR RADIO

PENNY SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN THE COMMUNITY OF AXTELL.

0837 PM HAIL VALLEY MILLS 31.66N 97.48W
05/20/2010 E1.75 INCH BOSQUE TX AMATEUR RADIO

REPORTED AT VALLEY MILLS HIGH SCHOOL

0845 PM HAIL MART 31.53N 96.83W
05/20/2010 E1.00 INCH MCLENNAN TX PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN MART.

0910 PM TSTM WND GST MCGREGOR 31.43N 97.42W
05/20/2010 M62 MPH MCLENNAN TX AWOS

KPWG AWOS MEASURED WIND GUST OF 54 KNOTS

0910 PM TSTM WND GST 6 ENE MCGREGOR 31.46N 97.33W
05/20/2010 E60 MPH MCLENNAN TX BROADCAST MEDIA

WIND GUST OF 60 MPH WAS ESTIMATED AT THE INTERSECTION OF
HIGHWAY 84 AND OLD LORENA RD.

0918 PM HAIL 6 ENE MCGREGOR 31.46N 97.33W
05/20/2010 E0.88 INCH MCLENNAN TX BROADCAST MEDIA

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF OLD
LORENA RD AND HIGHWAY 84

0925 PM HAIL WOODWAY 31.52N 97.20W
05/20/2010 E1.75 INCH MCLENNAN TX BROADCAST MEDIA

0926 PM HAIL 4 NE HEWITT 31.51N 97.15W
05/20/2010 E1.00 INCH MCLENNAN TX BROADCAST MEDIA

QUARTER SIZE HAIL FELL AT THE INTERSECTION OF PANTHER
WAY AND HEWITT DRIVE.

0931 PM HAIL 4 SE HEWITT 31.43N 97.15W
05/20/2010 E1.75 INCH MCLENNAN TX AMATEUR RADIO

0931 PM HAIL HEWITT 31.47N 97.20W
05/20/2010 E1.25 INCH MCLENNAN TX AMATEUR RADIO

QUARTER TO HALF-DOLLAR SIZE HAIL IN HEWITT

1003 PM TSTM WND GST 6 SW GOLINDA 31.32N 97.15W
05/20/2010 E60 MPH FALLS TX AMATEUR RADIO

HAMS ESTIMATED 60 MPH AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 7
AND CR 439

1020 PM HAIL CHILTON 31.28N 97.07W
05/20/2010 E1.75 INCH FALLS TX AMATEUR RADIO

1020 PM HAIL 6 N LOTT 31.31N 97.03W
05/20/2010 E1.75 INCH FALLS TX BROADCAST MEDIA

NICKEL TO GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL IS COVERING THE GROUND 6
MILES NORTH OF LOTT ALONG HIGHWAY 77.

1022 PM TSTM WND GST 8 SW CHILTON 31.20N 97.17W
05/20/2010 E70 MPH FALLS TX AMATEUR RADIO

1 MILE EAST OF BELFALLS

1040 PM HAIL 1 S GOLDTHWAITE 31.44N 98.57W
05/20/2010 E1.75 INCH MILLS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED 1.25 MILES SOUTH OF
GOLDTHWAITE ON HIGHWAY 183.

$$

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KIND [211428]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIND 211428
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0955 AM HAIL 2 N WEST LEBANON 40.30N 87.38W
05/21/2010 U0.25 INCH WARREN IN EMERGENCY MNGR

INTERSECTION OF STATE ROAD 263 AND WEST DIVISION ROAD.
POWER OUTAGE DUE TO UNKNOWN REASON.

&&

$$

HEROLD

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KAMA [211425]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KAMA 211425
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
925 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0113 AM HAIL DUMAS 35.86N 101.97W
05/19/2010 E1.75 INCH MOORE TX EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS CARS RECEIVED HAIL DAMAGE INCLUDING BROKEN
WINDOWS

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS...SOURCE

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000472

$$

NUNEZ

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KAMA [211422]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 211422
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
921 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0635 PM HAIL DUMAS 35.86N 101.97W
05/18/2010 E1.75 INCH MOORE TX EMERGENCY MNGR

ONE DOWNED POWER POLE IN DUMAS... ONE WINDOW BROKEN BY
HAIL AT WALMART

0635 PM TSTM WND DMG DUMAS 35.86N 101.97W
05/18/2010 MOORE TX EMERGENCY MNGR

ONE DOWNED POWER POLE IN DUMAS... ONE WINDOW BROKEN BY
HAIL AT WALMART

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000491
EVENT NUMBER AMA1000492

$$

NUNEZ

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KBMX [211351]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 211351
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
851 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0705 AM TSTM WND DMG 4 N HALEYVILLE 34.30N 87.62W
05/21/2010 WINSTON AL EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND BLOCKING WAKEFIELD ROAD IN MIDWAY
...JUST OFF AL HWY 13.

&&

$$

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KMEG [211340]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KMEG 211340
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
839 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 AM FLASH FLOOD VERONA 34.19N 88.72W
05/21/2010 LEE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFF REPORTS SIGNIFICANT FLOODING SOUTH OF TUPELO AND
NEAR THE VERONA AREA. TWO RESCUE EVENTS REPORTED WITH
VEHICLES STRANDED.

0550 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 W VERONA 34.19N 88.77W
05/21/2010 LEE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

LEE COUNTY 911 REPORTS 12 TO 18 INCHES OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS IN THE PALMETTO AREA.

0728 AM FLASH FLOOD BRUCE 33.99N 89.34W
05/21/2010 CALHOUN MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

CALHOUN COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTS 8 TO 10 INCHES OF WATER
OVER HIGHWAY 32 EAST.

0735 AM FLASH FLOOD AMORY 33.99N 88.48W
05/21/2010 MONROE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS ROADS FLOODED AND SOME
HOUSES FLOODED IN AMORY.

0745 AM FLASH FLOOD TUPELO 34.26N 88.73W
05/21/2010 LEE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

SOME HOUSES FLOODED.

0825 AM FLASH FLOOD AMORY 33.99N 88.48W
05/21/2010 MONROE MS EMERGENCY MNGR

HIGHWAY 278 UNDERPASS IN AMORY IS FLOODED. VARIOUS OTHER
ROADS IN AMORY...HATLEY...AND SMITHVILLE ARE FLOODED.

&&

$$

CCD

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0644

ACUS11 KWNS 211335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211335
ALZ000-MSZ000-211500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0644
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0835 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MS/NORTH CENTRAL AL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 211335Z - 211500Z

NARROW BAND OF STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD E/ESEWD FROM NERN
MS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AL THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING. IN
ADDITION...AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS POSSIBLE
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FROM AROUND BHM TO ANB.

COMBINATION OF VERY MOIST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING ALONG
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS RESULTED IN REGENERATION OF
CONVECTION FROM WEST OF CBM TO WEST BHM. THE LEADING STORM IN THIS
BAND...IN WALKER AND APPROACHING JEFFERSON COUNTY AL...HAS A WELL
DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IS LAYING DOWN A BOUNDARY FOR
CONVECTION TO REGENERATE BEHIND IT. DESPITE STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER...LEADING STORM IS MOVING ESEWD AT 25-30 KT AND CERTAINLY HAS
A LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS.
HOWEVER...GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL ATTM IS THE TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREAS. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE
MOIST...PW VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES...AND STRONG THETA ADVECTION
BETWEEN 900-700 MB SHOULD MAINTAIN STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

..IMY.. 05/21/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 33398740 33508820 33578879 33808905 34068882 34038734
34048659 33838568 33328564 33118613 33248673 33398740

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KAMA [211333]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KAMA 211333
LSRAMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
832 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1047 PM HAIL STRATFORD 36.34N 102.07W
05/18/2010 E2.00 INCH SHERMAN TX EMERGENCY MNGR

CONSIDERABLE AUTOMOBILE AND ROOF DAMAGE

&&

EVENT NUMBER AMA1000490

$$

JOHNSON

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KBMX [211314]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBMX 211314
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
813 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0730 AM FLASH FLOOD HALEYVILLE 34.24N 87.62W
05/21/2010 WINSTON AL TRAINED SPOTTER

WATER SEVERAL INCHES DEEP OVER HIGHWAY 13 IN NORTH SIDE
OF CITY.

0730 AM LIGHTNING HALEYVILLE 34.24N 87.62W
05/21/2010 WINSTON AL TRAINED SPOTTER

LIGHTNING STRIKE SET FIRE TO A WAREHOUSE IN DOWNTOWN
HALEYVILLE...BUILDING IS A TOTAL LOSS.

&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 211256
SWODY1
SPC AC 211255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH
VALLEY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN WY AND ADJACENT AREAS
OF SD AND NEB SOUTH ACROSS ERN CO AND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUITE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS INTO THE
WEEKEND AS ONE WELL-DEFINED DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST
THROUGH TODAY AND ANOTHER SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST
AND ROCKIES. TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS
VALLEY THIS PERIOD.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE CA/ORE COAST THIS
MORNING WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT. MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN ACROSS ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER WY/CO. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
...CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WILL INCREASE NWWD AS
PRESSURE FALLS COMMENCE IN EARNEST LATER THIS MORNING AND LOW LEVEL
SELY FLOW STRENGTHENS. COMBINED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...EXPECT A GENERALLY N-S AXIS OF
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM ABOUT 500
J/KG ACROSS SERN WY...TO AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG OVER PARTS OF TX.

LACK OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION WITH NWWD EXTENT WILL MOST LIKELY
BE COMPENSATED FOR BY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...AS WELL AS OROGRAPHIC/UPSLOPE FLOW. THESE
INFLUENCES WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...FIRST OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST...AND THEN SPREADING EAST INTO AXIS OF
MODEST INSTABILITY FROM SERN WY ACROSS NERN CO. PRONOUNCED SPEED
SHEAR...AS WELL AS STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR LOWER IN THE STORM
UPDRAFT WILL LEAD TO ROTATING CELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY LINE...FROM SERN CO TO WEST TX/ERN
NM...STORM INITIATION BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. LACK OF STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING AND DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUGGEST
THAT STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ISOLATED ALONG THIS AXIS. CONSENSUS
EXISTS AMONG HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND THE NAM THAT SURFACE HEATING
AND WEAK BACKGROUND ASCENT MAY BE ADEQUATE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
STORMS TO INITIATE...ESPECIALLY FROM TX PNHDL SOUTH TO NEAR THE
PECOS RIVER. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY THAT MAY
DECAY RATHER QUICKLY AFTER DARK.

...SOUTH...
A CORRIDOR OF STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE BECOMING ESTABLISHED FROM SRN MS TO SRN GA
AND NORTH FL THIS MORNING. VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN THIS ZONE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK
INHIBITION. WHILE STRONGER FORCING WITH THE MIDWEST UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS NORTH OF THIS AREA...MID LEVEL WLY FLOW OF 20-30 KT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND PERHAPS EVEN SUPERCELLS
AS CONVECTION INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY OF STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NWD
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WHERE AIR MASS WILL TAKE LONGER TO RECOVER FROM
MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS. SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER IN THIS REGION
AND EXPECT GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS LIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THIS AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

...MIDWEST...
SOME WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND PERSISTENT BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC SALE
ASCENT APPEARS LIKELY AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THIS REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ONE OR TWO BANDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION FROM ERN IL TO OH. SHEAR
PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...COLD AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME DO SUGGEST THAT A
FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY HAIL AND PERHAPS
EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO.

..CARBIN/ROGERS.. 05/21/2010

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KMEG [211246]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KMEG 211246
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
746 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 AM FLASH FLOOD VERONA 34.19N 88.72W
05/21/2010 LEE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFF REPORTS SIGNIFICANT FLOODING SOUTH OF TUPELO AND
NEAR THE VERONA AREA. TWO RESCUE EVENTS REPORTED WITH
VEHICLES STRANDED.

0550 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 W VERONA 34.19N 88.77W
05/21/2010 LEE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

LEE COUNTY 911 REPORTS 12 TO 18 INCHES OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS IN THE PALMETTO AREA.

0728 AM FLASH FLOOD BRUCE 33.99N 89.34W
05/21/2010 CALHOUN MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

CALHOUN COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTS 8 TO 10 INCHES OF WATER
OVER HIGHWAY 32 EAST.

0735 AM FLASH FLOOD AMORY 33.99N 88.48W
05/21/2010 MONROE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS ROADS FLOODED AND SOME
HOUSES FLOODED IN AMORY.

0745 AM FLASH FLOOD TUPELO 34.26N 88.73W
05/21/2010 LEE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

SOME HOUSES FLOODED.

&&

$$

BORGHOFF

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KMEG [211238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 211238
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
738 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 AM FLASH FLOOD AMORY 33.99N 88.48W
05/21/2010 MONROE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS ROADS FLOODED AND SOME
HOUSES FLOODED IN AMORY.

&&

$$

BORGHOFF

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KMEG [211229]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 211229
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
729 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0728 AM FLASH FLOOD BRUCE 33.99N 89.34W
05/21/2010 CALHOUN MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

CALHOUN COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTS 8 TO 10 INCHES OF WATER
OVER HIGHWAY 32 EAST.

&&

$$

BORGHOFF

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KFWD [211215]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 211215
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
714 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0255 PM HAIL WAXAHACHIE 32.40N 96.85W
05/20/2010 E1.00 INCH ELLIS TX PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZE HAIL FELL IN WAXAHACHIE. TIME ESTIMATED
FROM RADAR.

$$

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KFWD [211201]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KFWD 211201
LSRFWD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
701 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0510 PM HAIL CORSICANA 32.10N 96.47W
05/20/2010 E2.75 INCH NAVARRO TX PUBLIC

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS FELL IN CORSICANA.

$$

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KHNX [211138]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KHNX 211138
LSRHNX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY CA
438 AM PDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM NON-TSTM WND GST WOFFORD HEIGHTS 35.72N 118.50W
05/20/2010 M45 MPH KERN CA MESONET

RECORDED BY THE WOFFORD HEIGHTS RAWS.

0518 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 S LAKE ISABELLA 35.59N 118.47W
05/20/2010 M53 MPH KERN CA MESONET

MEASURED BY THE KRN04 PORTABLE RAWS.

0429 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 NE EDWARDS AFB 35.01N 117.81W
05/20/2010 M47 MPH KERN CA ASOS

MEASURED BY THE EDWARDS AFB NORTH BASE ASOS /K9L2/.

&&

$$

SANGER

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KMEG [211054]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KMEG 211054
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
554 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 AM FLASH FLOOD VERONA 34.19N 88.72W
05/21/2010 LEE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFF REPORTS SIGNIFICANT FLOODING SOUTH OF TUPELO AND
NEAR THE VERONA AREA. TWO RESCUE EVENTS REPORTED WITH
VEHICLES STRANDED.

0550 AM FLASH FLOOD 3 W VERONA 34.19N 88.77W
05/21/2010 LEE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

LEE COUNTY 911 REPORTS 12 TO 18 INCHES OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS IN THE PALMETTO AREA.

&&

$$

BORGHOFF

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KMEG [211042]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 211042
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
542 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0530 AM FLASH FLOOD VERONA 34.19N 88.72W
05/21/2010 LEE MS LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFF REPORTS SIGNIFICANT FLOODING SOUTH OF TUPELO AND
NEAR THE VERONA AREA. TWO RESCUE EVENTS REPORTED WITH
VEHICLES STRANDED.

&&

$$

BORGHOFF

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 210918
SWOD48
SPC AC 210917

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0417 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

CORRECTED TYPOS

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SVR RISK AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SECOND IN A SERIES OF VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...EMERGING FROM LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIVE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...LIKE THE PRECEDING SYSTEM...THE TENDENCY MAY BE FOR
THE SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT WITH A MORE NORTHERLY THAN EASTERLY
COMPONENT...DUE TO THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF A BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE
OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
DUE TO THIS ORIENTATION...IT IS NOT YET CLEAR THAT INSTABILITY/SHEAR
PARAMETERS WILL BECOME FAVORABLY MAXIMIZED TO SUPPORT A REGIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY NOT BE
NEGLIGIBLE. THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT UPPER RIDGING
WILL REDEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF EVOLVING MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS IMPULSES PROGRESS OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH...AND AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BUT...THE PREDICTABILITY OF THESE FEATURES
AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE BECOMES TOO LOW TO CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE A
SEVERE RISK AREA.

..KERR.. 05/21/2010

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 210900
SWOD48
SPC AC 210900

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SVR RISK AREA...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT A SECOND IN A SERIES OF VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE IMPULSES...EMERGING FROM LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIVE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...LIKE THE PRECEDING SYSTEM...THE TENDENCY MAY BE FOR
THE SYSTEM TO LIFT OUT WITH A MORE NORTHERLY THAN EASTERLY
COMPONENT...DUE TO THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF A BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE
OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
DUE TO THIS ORIENTATION...IT IS NOT YET CLEAR THAT INSTABILITY/SHEAR
PARAMETERS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE MAXIMIZED TO SUPPORT A REGIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THOUGH THE SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY NOT BE NON
NEGLIGIBLE. THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT UPPER RIDGING
WILL REDEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE SUPPORTIVE OF EVOLVING MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS IMPULSES PROGRESS OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH...AND AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BUT...THE PREDICTABILITY OF THESE FEATURES
AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE BECOMES TOO LOW TO CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE A
SEVERE RISK AREA.

..KERR.. 05/21/2010

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KBMX [210742]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KBMX 210742
LSRBMX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
242 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0405 PM HAIL 5 SSE JENA 33.07N 87.82W
05/20/2010 E0.88 INCH TUSCALOOSA AL EMERGENCY MNGR

DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON SHILOH ROAD NEAR THE
COMMUNITY OF SNODDY.

0425 PM HAIL E FOSTERS 33.09N 87.69W
05/20/2010 E1.75 INCH TUSCALOOSA AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WITH DAMAGE TO VEHICLES REPORTED AT
THE INTERSECTION OF US HIGHWAY 11 AND GAINSVILLE ROAD.

0425 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NE FOSTERS 33.10N 87.68W
05/20/2010 TUSCALOOSA AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

TREES REPORTED DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF US HIGHWAY 11
AND GAINSVILLE ROAD.

0428 PM HAIL 1 ENE FOSTERS BOAT LAND 33.13N 87.65W
05/20/2010 E1.00 INCH TUSCALOOSA AL EMERGENCY MNGR

QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT MILE MARKER 65 ON
INTERSTATE 20/59.

0439 PM HAIL 6 SSE NORTHPORT 33.17N 87.55W
05/20/2010 E0.88 INCH TUSCALOOSA AL BROADCAST MEDIA

NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF
INTERSTATES 20/59 AND 359.

0440 PM TSTM WND DMG MCFARLAND MALL 33.17N 87.52W
05/20/2010 TUSCALOOSA AL BROADCAST MEDIA

ROOF DAMAGE REPORTED AT MCFARLAND MALL. DEBRIS REPORTED
IN THE PARKING LOT.

0445 PM HAIL 5 SW HOLT 33.20N 87.58W
05/20/2010 E0.88 INCH TUSCALOOSA AL BROADCAST MEDIA

NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT 15TH AND STILLMAN BLVD.

0445 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 S TUSCALOOSA 33.17N 87.55W
05/20/2010 TUSCALOOSA AL BROADCAST MEDIA

ROOF COLLAPSE REPORTED AT THE ADVANCE AUTO PARTS ON
SKYLAND BLVD. THE STORE WAS FLOODED. NO INJURIES
REPORTED.

0448 PM HAIL 5 NE KNOXVILLE 33.04N 87.73W
05/20/2010 E1.00 INCH TUSCALOOSA AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON THE GREENE/TUSCALOOSA
COUNTY LINE BY STATE TROOPERS.

0449 PM HAIL FOSTERS 33.09N 87.69W
05/20/2010 E0.88 INCH TUSCALOOSA AL EMERGENCY MNGR

NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN FOSTERS.

0503 PM HAIL 3 SSE HOLT 33.20N 87.49W
05/20/2010 E0.25 INCH TUSCALOOSA AL PUBLIC

PEA SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND ON ARCADIA DRIVE IN
EAST TUSCALOOSA.

0505 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 S HOLT 33.21N 87.50W
05/20/2010 TUSCALOOSA AL BROADCAST MEDIA

SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE REPORTED AT GRACELAND
APARTMENTS JUST OFF MCFARLAND BLVD. FOUR APARTMENTS WERE
AFFECTED WHEN TREE BLEW INTO THE BUILDING.

0511 PM HAIL COTTONDALE 33.19N 87.45W
05/20/2010 E1.75 INCH TUSCALOOSA AL BROADCAST MEDIA

GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN COTTONDALE. TREES AND
POWER LINES ALSO DOWN.

0520 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 S HOLT 33.19N 87.50W
05/20/2010 TUSCALOOSA AL BROADCAST MEDIA

TRAFFIC LIGHTS REPORTED BLOWN DOWN ON HARGROVE ROAD.

0524 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 SSE TUSCALOOSA 33.17N 87.52W
05/20/2010 TUSCALOOSA AL LAW ENFORCEMENT

DAMAGE REPORTED AT THE SAMS CLUB AND WALMART ON SKYLAND
BLVD. TRAFFIC LIGHTS DOWN WITH DEBRIS ON SKYLAND BLVD.
THE FRONT DOORS WERE BLOWN INTO THE SAMS CLUB. FIRE
DEPARTMENT AND RESCUE ON SCENE...NO INJURIES TO REPORT AT
THIS TIME.

0541 PM FLOOD TUSCALOOSA 33.24N 87.54W
05/20/2010 TUSCALOOSA AL BROADCAST MEDIA

EIGHT INCH WATER DEPTH ON HWY 82 AND 15TH AND UNIVERISITY
MALL AREA. SCATTERED LITTER OF ROOFING TILE, SHINGLES,
WALL PANELS IN SKYLAND AREA. FROM JASON KELLEY

0559 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 SSW HOLT 33.19N 87.52W
05/20/2010 TUSCALOOSA AL BROADCAST MEDIA

WATER REPORTED OVER THE BRIDGE IN THE BROOKHAVEN
COMMUNITY JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 82.

0631 PM TSTM WND DMG E WOODSTOCK JUNCTION 33.22N 87.17W
05/20/2010 TUSCALOOSA AL AMATEUR RADIO

POWER OUTAGES REPORTED IN WOODSTOCK AT THE INTERSECTION
OF US HIGHWAY 11 AND STATE HIGHWAY 5.

0639 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 WNW ALABASTER 33.28N 86.90W
05/20/2010 SHELBY AL AMATEUR RADIO

TREES DOWN AT COUNTY HIGHWAY 13 AND ENVIRONS PARKWAY.
TIME ADJUSTED FROM RADAR.

0644 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 SW ALABASTER 33.22N 86.85W
05/20/2010 SHELBY AL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN ON KENT DAIRY ROAD AND PARK PLACE IN
ALABASTER. TIME ADJUSTED FROM RADAR.

0648 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S ALABASTER 33.24N 86.81W
05/20/2010 SHELBY AL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN AT 1ST STREET SOUTH AND OLD HIGHWAY 31 IN
ALABASTER.

0652 PM HAIL ALABAMA ADVENTURE 33.39N 87.00W
05/20/2010 E0.50 INCH JEFFERSON AL AMATEUR RADIO

DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT ALABAMA ADVENTURE AND
INTERSTATE 20/59

0653 PM HAIL COOPER 32.78N 86.54W
05/20/2010 E0.50 INCH CHILTON AL AMATEUR RADIO

DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED CLOSE TO THE COMMUNITY OF COOPER.

0657 PM TSTM WND DMG ENSLEY 33.51N 86.89W
05/20/2010 JEFFERSON AL AMATEUR RADIO

POWER AND TRAFFIC LIGHTS REPORTED OUT ALL ALONG 20TH
STREET FROM INTERSTATE 20 NORTH TO HIGHWAY 269.

0701 PM TSTM WND DMG BESSEMER 33.38N 86.96W
05/20/2010 JEFFERSON AL AMATEUR RADIO

POWER OUTAGES REPORTED IN BESSEMER.

0703 PM TSTM WND GST 3 S BIRMINGHAM 33.48N 86.80W
05/20/2010 E70.00 MPH JEFFERSON AL BROADCAST MEDIA

60 TO 70 MPH WINDS ESTIMATED FROM WIAT TV ATOP RED
MOUNTAIN.

0707 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 SSE ALABASTER 33.19N 86.78W
05/20/2010 SHELBY AL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES REPORTED DOWN AT MILE MARKER 235 ON INTERSTATE 65.

0709 PM TSTM WND GST 2 W ALABASTER 33.25N 86.85W
05/20/2010 M61.00 MPH SHELBY AL AMATEUR RADIO

WIND GUST REPORTED AT FOX VALLEY AT THE INTERSECTION OF
COUNTY HIGHWAY 17 AND 1ST AVENUE.

0712 PM FLOOD 3 W BIRMINGHAM 33.53N 86.85W
05/20/2010 JEFFERSON AL AMATEUR RADIO

6-8 INCHES OF WATER OVER THE ROADWAY ON ARKADELPHIA ROAD
BEFORE THE RAILROAD BRIDGE.

0720 PM TSTM WND GST BIRMINGHAM AIRPORT 33.56N 86.75W
05/20/2010 M55.00 MPH JEFFERSON AL ASOS

55 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED AT THE BIRMINGHAM INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT.

0727 PM TSTM WND GST BIRMINGHAM 33.53N 86.80W
05/20/2010 M62.00 MPH JEFFERSON AL ASOS

PEAK WIND GUST FROM THE BIRMINGHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

0730 PM HEAVY RAIN BIRMINGHAM 33.53N 86.80W
05/20/2010 E0.00 INCH JEFFERSON AL AMATEUR RADIO

EMERGENCY WATER RESCUE 9TH AVE N AND 22ND ST N. KD4KZT

0730 PM LIGHTNING BIRMINGHAM 33.53N 86.80W
05/20/2010 JEFFERSON AL AMATEUR RADIO

INDIVIDUAL STRUCK BY LIGHTNING AT RENTA-CENTER
GREENSPINGS IN HOMEWOOD. KD4KZT

0739 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 E MONTGOMERY 32.36N 86.21W
05/20/2010 MONTGOMERY AL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES AND POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN IN THE WOODMERE
COMMUNITY NEAR CARMICHAEL ROAD.

0745 PM HEAVY RAIN BIRMINGHAM 33.53N 86.80W
05/20/2010 E0.00 INCH JEFFERSON AL AMATEUR RADIO

EMERGENCY WATER RESCUE CARRAWAY BLVD AND 26TH ST NEAR
NORWOOD. KD4KZT

0752 PM HEAVY RAIN TRUSSVILLE 33.64N 86.59W
05/20/2010 E0.00 INCH JEFFERSON AL AMATEUR RADIO

WATER OVER THE ROADWAY ON HAPPY HOLLOW ROAD.

0827 PM HAIL 1 SW ALPINE BAY RESORT 33.43N 86.31W
05/20/2010 E0.25 INCH TALLADEGA AL AMATEUR RADIO

PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON RENFROE ROAD NEAR THE HEPZIBAH
COMMUNITY.

0836 PM TSTM WND DMG REELTOWN 32.60N 85.81W
05/20/2010 TALLAPOOSA AL EMERGENCY MNGR

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN NEAR THE REELTOWN VFD

&&

$$

JSIRMON

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 210731
SWODY3
SPC AC 210730

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SUN AFTN AND SUN NIGHT
FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN DEVELOPMENTS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
BUT...GENERALLY...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG AN AXIS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...THE INITIAL SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE
LIFTING OUT OF LARGER SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA...TOWARD
HUDSON BAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO
CEASE DIGGING ...GRADUALLY TURNING EAST OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. SUBSTANTIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LATTER FEATURE APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN WEST OF THE PLAINS INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...WHILE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS GENERALLY RISE ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A DIGGING IMPULSE WITHIN AN
EVOLVING BROAD CIRCULATION ACROSS THE MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD
AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

...PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
DETAILS OF ANTICIPATED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...AND THE EXTENT OF THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL...ARE STILL VERY UNCLEAR FOR SUNDAY. MID 60S TO
AROUND 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL U.S. APPEAR LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY BY THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS. STRONGEST
INSTABILITY...CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000
J/KG...APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUSED IN A CORRIDOR ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A STALLING...WEAKENING AND THEN RETREATING SURFACE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE LIFTING INTO CANADA. DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THE REMNANT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM PARTS OF WESTERN WISCONSIN/SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH
NORTHWEST IOWA/EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN
KANSAS...WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS...BEFORE RETREATING WESTWARD DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

ALTHOUGH WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUBSIDENCE MAY BE
INHIBITIVE...IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT LOW-LEVEL FORCING NEAR THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FEATURES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE
BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO NIGHTFALL. IF THIS
OCCURS...FLOW FIELDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGING ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN FAVORABLY STRONG AND SHEARED TO SUPPORT SEVERE
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.

ANY BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY
MID TO LATE EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING...AND
INCREASING INHIBITION. BUT...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BASED WITHIN A STRENGTHENING ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME
DEVELOPING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...PERHAPS
ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL.

..KERR.. 05/21/2010

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