SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211526
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-211630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0646
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL...NWRN KY...INDIANA AND WRN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 211526Z - 211630Z
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE HOUR OR SO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SERN IL...NWRN KY AND INDIANA AND WRN OH...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW WAS SITUATED
IN CENTRAL IL...SHIFTING SLOWLY ENEWD TOWARD NWRN INDIANA. ALSO...
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN WRN IL...WITH A COLD FRONT
TRAILING SWD FROM THE LOW.
DESPITE WEAK INSTABILITY AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WAS ALREADY AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE IL/INDIANA BORDER. HOWEVER...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SKIES BECOMING PARTY CLOUDY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SRN
IL. IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT LESS DENSE LOW CLOUDS FROM SERN IL
NEWD INTO CENTRAL IND/NWRN OH MAY DECREASE ENOUGH FOR SOME WARMING
AND MLCAPES TO REACH 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH UPPER FORCING AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 35 KT...SHOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE.
..IMY.. 05/21/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 41538635 41458428 40928397 38648433 37448577 37308713
37648822 38608869 39908806 40918735 41538635
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