KABQ [150311]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KABQ 150311
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
911 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 AM SNOW RED RIVER 36.71N 105.40W
10/14/2008 M2.0 INCH TAOS NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0830 AM SNOW 7 N RATON 36.99N 104.44W
10/14/2008 M3.0 INCH COLFAX NM OTHER FEDERAL

1035 AM SNOW UTE PARK 36.56N 105.11W
10/14/2008 E1.0 INCH COLFAX NM PARK/FOREST SRVC

1039 AM SNOW GASCON 35.89N 105.45W
10/14/2008 M1.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM CO-OP OBSERVER

1039 AM SNOW 30 W RATON 36.88N 104.98W
10/14/2008 E2.0 INCH COLFAX NM TRAINED SPOTTER

0100 PM SNOW 2 SE MANZANO 34.62N 106.31W
10/14/2008 E2.0 INCH TORRANCE NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0200 PM SNOW 9 SW CORONA 34.15N 105.70W
10/14/2008 M2.0 INCH LINCOLN NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0230 PM SNOW 3 NW SANDIA PARK 35.20N 106.40W
10/14/2008 E3.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM PUBLIC

&&

$$

44

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150047
SWODY1
SPC AC 150044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2008

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS WEST
TX/CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING...WHILE THE FRONT BEGINS TO GRADUALLY
RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS MO AND PORTIONS OF IL/INDIANA TONIGHT. AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR LIMITED TSTM
POTENTIAL THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WEAK CAPE/POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL CONSIDERABLY LIMIT A SEVERE TSTM RISK OVERALL.

ACROSS OK/SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHERN MO...WITH EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET /35-40 KT 850 MB/ WILL MODESTLY INCREASE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN A
MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...SOME SHOWER/TSTM ROTATION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF THE FRONT FROM OK INTO SOUTHERN MO.
HOWEVER...AN ORGANIZED WIND/TORNADO RISK IS UNLIKELY OWING TO WEAK
INSTABILITY/LAPSE RATES PER 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM NORMAN
OK/SPRINGFIELD MO.

..GUYER.. 10/15/2008

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KABQ [142257]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 142257
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
457 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM SNOW 2 SE MANZANO 34.62N 106.31W
10/14/2008 E2.0 INCH TORRANCE NM CO-OP OBSERVER

0200 PM SNOW 9 SW CORONA 34.15N 105.70W
10/14/2008 M2.0 INCH LINCOLN NM CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

34

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KPUB [142250]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 142250
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
449 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM SNOW CUCHARA 37.38N 105.10W
10/14/2008 M3.0 INCH HUERFANO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MMOORE

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KABQ [142144]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 142144
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
344 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM SNOW 3 NW SANDIA PARK 35.20N 106.40W
10/14/2008 E3.0 INCH BERNALILLO NM PUBLIC

&&

$$

50

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141909
SWODY1
SPC AC 141906

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2008

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOW AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...

THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD
INTO SRN MO BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY OR WARM FRONTAL IN CHARACTER
FROM SWRN MO THROUGH W TX. ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS WIDESPREAD
WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM WRN TX...ERN
NM..SE CO AND KS. HOWEVER...LIGHTNING HAS BEEN SPARSE DUE TO WEAK
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE. CONVECTION WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS
SWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ENHANCING
LIFT IN POST FRONTAL ZONE. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE IN WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM S THROUGH N CNTRL TX
WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
LIGHTNING COVERAGE IN THIS REGION AS WELL.

..DIAL.. 10/14/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 141734
SWODY2
SPC AC 141731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2008

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NM WILL EJECT INTO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS
THIS PERIOD AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME
BETWEEN SERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MS VALLEY ALONG FRONT
THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH SW TX. THE
FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SE THROUGH THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEYS AND LOWER
OH VALLEY AND TX IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S WILL PERSIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM PARTS OF MO INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY...BUT POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR PARTIAL
CLOUD BREAKS WITH MLCAPE POSSIBLY REACHING 500 J/KG AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS. CONVECTION MAY INCREASE ALONG FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY FROM
SE AND E CNTRL MO THROUGH SRN IL AND IND. INCREASING SWLY LOW-MID
LEVEL FLOW ATTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 30-40 KT SWLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR. A MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED BY
EXPECTED WEAK THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

..DIAL.. 10/14/2008

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KPUB [141651]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 141651
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1051 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1046 AM SNOW LA VETA 37.51N 105.01W
10/14/2008 M2.0 INCH HUERFANO CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JKH

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KABQ [141644]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 141644
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1044 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM SNOW 7 N RATON 36.99N 104.44W
10/14/2008 M3.0 INCH COLFAX NM OTHER FEDERAL

1035 AM SNOW UTE PARK 36.56N 105.11W
10/14/2008 E1.0 INCH COLFAX NM PARK/FOREST SRVC

1039 AM SNOW GASCON 35.89N 105.45W
10/14/2008 M1.0 INCH SAN MIGUEL NM CO-OP OBSERVER

1039 AM SNOW 30 W RATON 36.88N 104.98W
10/14/2008 E2.0 INCH COLFAX NM TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

GUYER

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KFGZ [141639]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KFGZ 141639
LSRFGZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
939 AM MST TUE OCT 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1236 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG JOSEPH CITY 34.96N 110.33W
10/11/2008 NAVAJO AZ PUBLIC

LARGE METAL STORAGE BLDG REMOVED FROM FOUNDATION DUE TO
WINDS. SEVERAL 18 WHEEL TRUCKS OVERTURNED ON I-40 AT
MILEMARKERS 274 AND 277

&&

$$

DANL

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141600
SWODY1
SPC AC 141557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2008

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW/TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NEWD /AROUND A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SE/ AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM...DEEP MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF A
WARM FRONT /EXTENDING FROM SWRN TX INTO CENTRAL MO/ WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM THE WRN TX/ERN NM PLAINS
NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF KS/WRN MO. DESPITE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST INSTABILITY /OWING TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
FROM 5.5 TO 6.0 DEG C/KM/ WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND MITIGATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL/WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN A REGION OF MODEST WAA FROM ERN TX NEWD INTO NRN AR/SRN
MO ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER MOISTURE/WEAK INHIBITION. WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST IN THIS AREA AS WELL
PRECLUDING ANY SVR THREAT.

..CROSBIE/HALES.. 10/14/2008

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KPUB [141522]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KPUB 141522
LSRPUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
922 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 AM SNOW ROSITA 38.10N 105.33W
10/14/2008 M2.0 INCH CUSTER CO TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

JKH

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KGRR [141512]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 141512
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1112 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0630 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 10 NE BATTLE CREEK 42.40N 85.09W
10/14/2008 CALHOUN MI BROADCAST MEDIA

TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES IN THE VICINITY OF M66 AND
BASELINE RD. 1300 PEOPLE WITHOUT POWER.

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KGRR [141457]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGRR 141457
LSRGRR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1057 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 S GRAND RAPIDS 42.89N 85.66W
10/14/2008 KENT MI BROADCAST MEDIA

TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES IN ALGER HEIGHTS. 2100 PEOPLE
WITHOUT POWER.

&&

$$

RSUTTLE

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KTFX [141417]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 141417
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
817 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 WSW GREAT FALLS 47.48N 111.39W
10/13/2008 M40.00 MPH CASCADE MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

40 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE GREAT FALLS AIRPORT.

1130 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.60N 112.38W
10/13/2008 M55.00 MPH GLACIER MT OFFICIAL NWS OBS

55 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT.

0400 AM NON-TSTM WND GST HEART BUTTE 48.29N 112.83W
10/14/2008 M44.00 MPH PONDERA MT MESONET

44 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT HEART BUTTE.

0429 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.46N 113.21W
10/14/2008 M58.00 MPH GLACIER MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

58 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR NEAR EAST GLACIER
PARK.

0520 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 8 SE EAST GLACIER PARK 48.37N 113.10W
10/14/2008 M63.00 MPH GLACIER MT MESONET

63 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT DEEP CREEK.

0530 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 32 N SHELBY 48.97N 111.86W
10/14/2008 M52.00 MPH TOOLE MT DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

52 MPH PEAK WIND GUST AT THE DOT SENSOR NEAR SWEET GRASS.

&&

HERE IS A SUMMARY OF HIGH WIND REPORTS FROM LAST NIGHT RECEIVED SO FAR
THIS MORNING.

$$

BRUSDA

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KABQ [141354]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 141354
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
754 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0750 AM SNOW RED RIVER 36.71N 105.40W
10/14/2008 M2.0 INCH TAOS NM CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

$$

SHY

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KKEY [141319]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 141319
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
919 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0820 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
10/14/2008 M40 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 35 KNOTS...OR 40 MPH...FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST WAS RECORDED AT THE SAND KEY C-MAN PLATFORM.
THE WIND GUST WAS PRODUCED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A
REMNANT THUNDERSTORM.

&&

$$

PFUENTES

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KKEY [141252]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS52 KKEY 141252 CCA
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
848 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

...CORRECTED MEASURED WIND SPEED FOR SAND KEY...

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0709 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 8 SSE KEY LARGO 25.01N 80.38W
10/14/2008 M46 MPH GMZ052 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 40 KNOTS...OR 46 MPH...FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST WAS RECORDED AT MOLASSES REEF C-MAN PLATFORM
DURING A THUNDERSTORM.

0721 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
10/14/2008 M45 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 39 KNOTS...OR 45 MPH...FROM THE EAST WAS
RECORDED AT THE SAND KEY C-MAN PLATFORM DURING A
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

$$

PFUENTES

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KKEY [141249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 141249
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
848 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0709 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 8 SSE KEY LARGO 25.01N 80.38W
10/14/2008 M46 MPH GMZ052 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 40 KNOTS...OR 46 MPH...FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST WAS RECORDED AT MOLASSES REEF C-MAN PLATFORM
DURING A THUNDERSTORM.

0721 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
10/14/2008 E0 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A WIND GUST OF 39 KNOTS...OR 45 MPH...FROM THE EAST WAS
RECORDED AT THE SAND KEY C-MAN PLATFORM DURING A
THUNDERSTORM.

&&

$$

PFUENTES

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141239
SWODY1
SPC AC 141236

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2008

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN AZ WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WEAKEN TODAY...WHILE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEST TX
INTO CENTRAL OK AND CENTRAL MO. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF
FRONT WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY FROM EASTERN NM INTO WESTERN OK. FARTHER EAST...A WEAKLY
CAPPED WARM SECTOR WILL SEE SUFFICIENT INSOLATION FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MAX HEATING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OK/TX AND
MUCH OF AR/LA. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RATHER WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS TODAY.

..HART/JEWELL.. 10/14/2008

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KMQT [141142]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMQT 141142
LSRMQT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
742 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 AM NON-TSTM WND GST FREDA 47.13N 88.82W
10/14/2008 M60.00 MPH HOUGHTON MI CO-OP OBSERVER

PEAK WIND GUST. STILL EXPERIENCING 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS.

&&

$$

SRF

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 140850
SWOD48
SPC AC 140849

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2008

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH ROUGHLY DAY 6...AS
BOTH CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ERN
CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS...WEAK LOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INVOF THE
SERN U.S. ATLANTIC COAST DAY 5 /SAT. OCT. 18/ -- WITH THE GFS
DEPICTING OFFSHORE DEVELOPMENT AND THE ECMWF DEVELOPMENT FORECAST TO
BE INITIALLY ONSHORE. IN EITHER CASE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SWD ACROSS FL...LIKELY CLEARING S FL BY THE END OF
DAY 5. MORE SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE GULF
STREAM DAY 6...WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE NNEWD INVOF THE U.S.
ATLANTIC COAST.

ATTM...LITTLE SEVERE THREAT IS EVIDENT...AS THE SERN U.S. WARM
SECTOR DAYS 4-5 WILL LIKELY BE ONLY MINIMALLY UNSTABLE. WHILE
ONSHORE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW -- AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF -- WOULD
BE A BIT MORE BULLISH IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...THREAT SHOULD
STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED DUE TO AN OVERALL LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

..GOSS.. 10/14/2008

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 140727
SWODY3
SPC AC 140725

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2008

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY DURING THE DAY 3
PERIOD...AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS/MOVES EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND A RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN ITS WAKE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES...THE COLD FRONT -- LYING INITIALLY
FROM THE NORTHEAST SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS -- SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS.

THIS FRONT SHOULD SERVE AS FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MEAGER INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR SUGGESTS LITTLE SEVERE THREAT. ELSEWHERE...ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION DURING
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..GOSS.. 10/14/2008

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 140552
SWODY2
SPC AC 140549

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2008

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD/FLAT TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS
PERIOD...WITH WEAK RIDGES OVER BOTH THE SOUTHEAST AND THE ERN
PACIFIC/FAR SWRN CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
ALONG A LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE. IN ITS WAKE...THE FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SEWD...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM PA SWWD INTO SERN TX BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...MID MS/LOWER AND MID OH VALLEYS...
A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...MEAGER
BUT SUFFICIENT AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL UVV
INVOF THE LOW MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUSTAINED
STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS. THOUGH THE OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY
ANTICIPATED SHOULD ACT TO HINDER STORM INTENSITY...MODERATE WLY FLOW
ALOFT MAY SUPPORT WEAK STORM ORGANIZATION -- AND POSSIBLY A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. ANY THREAT
SHOULD QUICKLY WANE BY EVENING AS ANY EXISTING INSTABILITY
DIMINISHES.

..GOSS.. 10/14/2008

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 140514
SWODY1
SPC AC 140511

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2008

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVE TILT TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...GRADUALLY PHASING
LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH AN ACTIVE BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE FROM NM/WEST TX
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTM
POTENTIAL TODAY...WITH ADDITIONAL TSTMS POSSIBLE IN THE WEAKLY
CAPPED WARM SECTOR FROM SOUTHEAST TX TO THE ARKLATEX VICINITY.
OVERALL...LIMITED INSTABILITY/POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL PRECLUDE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
RISK.

..GUYER/JEWELL.. 10/14/2008

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