SWODY2
SPC AC 141731
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2008
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NM WILL EJECT INTO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS
THIS PERIOD AND DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME
BETWEEN SERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE MS VALLEY ALONG FRONT
THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH SW TX. THE
FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SE THROUGH THE MID-LOWER MS VALLEYS AND LOWER
OH VALLEY AND TX IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S WILL PERSIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM PARTS OF MO INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY LIMIT INSTABILITY...BUT POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR PARTIAL
CLOUD BREAKS WITH MLCAPE POSSIBLY REACHING 500 J/KG AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS. CONVECTION MAY INCREASE ALONG FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY FROM
SE AND E CNTRL MO THROUGH SRN IL AND IND. INCREASING SWLY LOW-MID
LEVEL FLOW ATTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 30-40 KT SWLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR. A MARGINAL THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER...THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED BY
EXPECTED WEAK THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
..DIAL.. 10/14/2008
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