DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190057
SWODY1
SPC AC 190054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2009

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...GENERALLY ZONAL TO WNW FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
ROUGHLY SRN 1/3 OF CONUS TRANSITIONS TO BROADLY CYCLONIC REGIME OVER
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST...ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE CYCLONE OVER
NWRN QUE. EMBEDDED/POSITIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE RAOB DATA FROM WRN QUE WSWWD
ACROSS LS AND NRN WI. SRN PORTION OF THIS PERTURBATION SHOULD PIVOT
SEWD OVER WI...LOWER MI AND LM THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD.

AT 23Z...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED ASSOCIATED WAVY COLD FRONT FROM SWRN PA
WSWWD OVER SRN PORTIONS INDIANA/IL/MO...BISECTING MAIN BODY OF OK
DIAGONALLY THEN ARCHING SWWD/WWD/NWWD OVER TX SOUTH-PLAINS REGION
AND SERN NM. THIS FRONT IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SWD/SEWD
THROUGH THOSE REGIONS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...REACHING TO NEAR
PHL...ROA...BNA...ELD...DFW...MAF...ELP LINE BY 12Z...WITH WEAK
FRONTAL-WAVE LOWS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVER NJ AND NEAR DFW BY THAT
TIME.

...NERN OK TO LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY REGION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE BEEN EVIDENT PAST FEW HOURS FROM SRN
INDIANA TO W-CENTRAL MO...MANY OF WHICH ARE N OF SFC COLD FRONT IN
AREA OF ELEVATED FRONTAL LIFT AND LOW LEVEL WAA ABOVE FRONTAL
SURFACE. VIS IMAGERY AND REFLECTIVITY LOOPS ALSO SHOW AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION -- HIGH BASED GIVEN MODIFIED RAOBS...RUC SOUNDINGS AND
VISUAL APPEARANCE -- FROM TUL AREA SWWD ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL OK.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN BRIEF TIME
WINDOW...THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...BEFORE THEIR SOURCE OF BUOYANCY IS
REMOVED.

GIVEN DRYNESS OF PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS...AND RELATED DEPENDENCE OF
ITS BUOYANCY ON DIABATIC SFC HEATING AS EVIDENT IN 00Z RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS...ONLY SLGT SFC COOLING IS NEEDED OVER MOST OF THIS
CORRIDOR TO ELIMINATE SBCAPE. THEREFORE THUNDER
PROBABILITIES/COVERAGE EACH SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH REMAINDER
EVENING...EXCEPT OVER PORTIONS LOWER OH VALLEY WHERE ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/WAA ABOVE SFC...AND ACCOMPANYING NARROW PLUME OF MRGL
MOISTURE...MAY MAINTAIN ELEVATED MUCAPES UP TO AROUND 200-300 J/KG.

..EDWARDS.. 03/19/2009

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KIND [182155]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIND 182155
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
555 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0554 PM HAIL SOUTHPORT 39.66N 86.12W
03/18/2009 U0.25 INCH MARION IN PUBLIC

&&

$$

NIELD

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KIWX [182008]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 182008
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
408 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0404 PM HAIL FORT WAYNE 41.07N 85.14W
03/18/2009 M0.25 INCH ALLEN IN TRAINED SPOTTER

MULTIPLE SPOTTERS REPORTED PEA SIZED HAIL IN FORT WAYNE

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902546

$$

LMK

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181957
SWODY1
SPC AC 181954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2009

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN IND/SRN IL/SE MO...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS
LOCATED FROM SRN NY WSWWD ACROSS NRN OH INTO CNTRL IND...SCNTRL IL
AND SE MO. RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A POCKET OF INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL IND SWWD INTO SE MO WHERE
MUCAPE VALUES HAVE RISEN TO BETWEEN 200 AND 500 J/KG. SFC-BASED
INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...REF MCD 230...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST
RUC QPF FORECAST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT ON THE LATEST
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO STEEPENING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE MO EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO
MAXIMIZED. THIS MAY ALSO SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT
ESPECIALLY FROM SRN IN WSWWD ALONG THE INTERSTATE-44 CORRIDOR INTO
SCNTRL MO.

..BROYLES.. 03/18/2009

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0230

ACUS11 KWNS 181923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181922
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-182115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0230
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN IL AND EAST
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 181922Z - 182115Z

TSTMS CAPABLE OF HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH 20Z-22Z WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA INTO
SOUTHERN IL AND EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MO. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
INCREASED ACROSS THE WABASH VALLEY NEAR/NORTH OF TERRE HAUTE...WITH
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER CU EVIDENT IN THE NEAR SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE
ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE I-70/I-44 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH CENTRAL IL/EAST
CENTRAL MO. LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS/FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE
HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 70S F SHOULD
QUICKLY ERODE REMAINING CINH...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS
LIKELY TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. IN SPITE OF
RATHER MODEST INSTABILITY/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL /GENERALLY TO 1 INCH/ THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED DUE TO A
PERCEIVED MARGINAL/ISOLD SEVERE RISK.

..GUYER.. 03/18/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 37539125 38369245 40088719 39648570 38358649 37608850
37539125

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KIWX [181917]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 181917
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
317 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0310 PM HAIL MENTONE 41.17N 86.04W
03/18/2009 E0.25 INCH KOSCIUSKO IN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902545

$$

LMK

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KIWX [181913]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 181913
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
313 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM HAIL 2 SW NORTH WEBSTER 41.30N 85.72W
03/18/2009 M0.50 INCH KOSCIUSKO IN NWS EMPLOYEE

MIX OF HALF INCH AND SMALLER HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902544

$$

LMK

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KLOT [181847]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLOT 181847
LSRLOT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
147 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0105 PM HAIL 1 NNE MOUNT AYR 40.96N 87.29W
03/18/2009 E0.25 INCH NEWTON IN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CM

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KIWX [181805]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 181805
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
205 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 PM HAIL MILFORD 41.41N 85.85W
03/18/2009 M0.70 INCH KOSCIUSKO IN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902543

$$

BJS

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KIWX [181759]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 181759
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
159 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0157 PM HAIL MILFORD 41.41N 85.85W
03/18/2009 M0.50 INCH KOSCIUSKO IN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902542

$$

JT

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KIWX [181737]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 181737
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
137 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0136 PM HAIL 1 SW MILLERSBURG 41.52N 85.71W
03/18/2009 M0.25 INCH ELKHART IN NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902541

$$

SAW

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KIWX [181715]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 181715
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
115 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1249 PM HAIL NEW PARIS 41.50N 85.83W
03/18/2009 M0.25 INCH ELKHART IN TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902540

$$

SAW

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KIWX [181715]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIWX 181715
LSRIWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
114 PM EDT WED MAR 18 2009

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1241 PM HAIL GOSHEN 41.58N 85.84W
03/18/2009 M0.25 INCH ELKHART IN TRAINED SPOTTER

COUNTY ROAD 42 NEAR GOSHEN AIRPORT

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX0902539

$$

SAW

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 181647
SWODY2
SPC AC 181646

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2009

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY THURSDAY ACROSS THE
MID-MS VALLEY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES. AT
THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...GULF
COAST STATES AND SRN PLAINS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT FROM NRN MS ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO
CNTRL NC DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS SFC TEMPS WARM THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE DUE TO LIMITED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE SFC
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 60S F. HOWEVER...A LACK OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION.

FURTHER WEST IN THE SRN PLAINS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES COULD APPROACH 1000 J/KG ALONG A
MOIST AXIS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS MAY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S F FROM
NCNTRL TX SWWD INTO THE WRN TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER...MODEL FORECASTS KEEP CONVECTION VERY ISOLATED WITH THE GFS
NOT CONVECTING AT ALL PROBABLY DUE TO INSUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE
ASCENT. EVEN THOUGH A SLIM CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF HAIL
EXISTS...THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A 5
PERCENT HAIL CONTOUR ATTM.

..BROYLES.. 03/18/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181620
SWODY1
SPC AC 181617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2009

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MS VALLEY...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY DIGGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE MID MS VALLEY BY EVENING AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
OCCUR AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH COOL MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A
PLUME OF 50S DEWPOINTS EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF MO/IL IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 300-600 J/KG. ITS APPEARS THAT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER
CENTRAL/ERN MO THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL AND INTO IND DURING THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE
STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...
MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR PARAMETERS AND RATHER WEAK CAPE SUGGEST THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOCALIZED AND DOES NOT WARRANT AN
UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK.

..HART/JEWELL.. 03/18/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 181238
SWODY1
SPC AC 181235

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2009

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER QUEBEC WHILE A
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS MID LEVEL
TROUGH...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
AND MID MS/OH VALLEYS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...MOIST PROFILES BELOW 500 MB AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT WARM PROCESS SHOWERS /AND PERHAPS ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES WITH THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/...IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK
SRN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO.

...SW INDIANA/SRN IL/SRN MO THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING /AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S/ AND
NEWD ADVECTION OF 48-50 F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM OK...BENEATH
7-8 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...
WILL RESULT IN A NARROW BELT OF MLCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE REDUCTION IN CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION THROUGH SURFACE HEATING/MIXING...AND LOW-LEVEL ASCENT
ALONG THE FRONT...WILL SUPPORT A BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT BEGINNING 21-00Z. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BUILD WSWWD
ACROSS SRN MO AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR SW AS N/NE OK OVERNIGHT...ON
THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
AND COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS IN THE
21-03Z PERIOD. THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED...HOWEVER...BY GRADUAL STABILIZATION AFTER SUNSET AND ONLY
MARGINAL WARM SECTOR VERTICAL SHEAR /S OF THE MAIN BELT OF MID-UPPER
WESTERLIES/.

..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 03/18/2009

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 180900
SWOD48
SPC AC 180859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2009

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...PARTICULARLY BEYOND DAY 6
/MON. 3-23/...WITH THE GFS REMAINING MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
EJECTION OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH.

THE GFS EJECTS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS DAY 6...AND THEN
INTO THE N CENTRAL CONUS DAY 7. WHILE THE ECMWF ALSO EJECTS A PIECE
OF THE TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS DAY 6...THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH LAGS
WWD...AS A SECOND/SMALLER-SCALE TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE DESERT
SW AS THE INITIAL FEATURE SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS. THUS -- DUE TO
THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION OF THE SEVERE
THREAT DIMINISHES AFTER DAY 6.

FOR DAY 6 HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT A LOW/COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF A SUBSTANTIAL/EJECTING UPPER FEATURE. WITH SEVERAL
PRIOR DAYS OF SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OFF AN OPEN GULF...THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT -- GIVEN ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF
FLOW ALOFT -- TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODE. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE A THREAT AREA DAY 6.

..GOSS.. 03/18/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 180726
SWODY3
SPC AC 180724

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2009

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN NOAM AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE EWD...WITH THE U.S. SHORT-WAVE PORTION OF THIS
TROUGH TO MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SEWD OFF THE GULF AND ATLANTIC
COASTS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

UPSTREAM...LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
WEST WITH TIME...WITH A SMALLER-SCALE TROUGH WITHIN THE BROADER
CYCLONIC FLOW CROSSING THE SWRN CONUS AND A SECOND MOVING INTO THE
PAC NW. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT -- WHICH
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE PAC NW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ASIDE FROM WEAK CONVECTION POSSIBLE INVOF S FL...THE MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION THIS PERIOD SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE WEST...FROM PARTS OF
THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY
ACROSS EACH OF THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..GOSS.. 03/18/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 180559
SWODY2
SPC AC 180557

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2009

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE MIDWEST REGION IS FORECAST TO EXPAND/AMPLIFY AS IT
CONTINUES EWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...A SECOND TROUGH/LOW
OVER THE NERN PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH WRN CANADA/THE PAC NW
LATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE SAGGING SWD ACROSS THE
SERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY -- AND MAY BE A FOCUS FOR WEAK
CONVECTION THIS PERIOD.

...MID-SOUTH REGION...
MINIMAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A SEWD-MOVING FRONT MAY SUPPORT
WEAK/MAINLY-DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- FROM THE CAROLINAS WWD
TO TX...BUT MOST LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH REGION.
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN INSUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT.

..GOSS.. 03/18/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180520
SWODY1
SPC AC 180517

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2009

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD IS
MIDLEVEL TROUGH /ANCHORED BY AN UPPER VORTEX OVER NRN QUEBEC/ WHICH
WILL AMPLIFY OVER ERN CANADA...THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EVENTUALLY
INTO NEW ENGLAND. IN THE LOW LEVELS...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY...OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

...OH VALLEY INTO OZARK PLATEAU...

THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A QUASI-ZONAL MIDLEVEL FLOW PATTERN HAS ALLOWED
FOR THE EWD ADVECTION OF AN EML ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO OHIO VALLEY
WITH OBSERVED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM. THIS CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING
500-700 J/KG GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS
/DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S/ FORECAST WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR.

THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO
FOSTER SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON OVER THE OH
VALLEY WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY BACK-BUILDING SWWD INTO THE OZARK
PLATEAU AND PERHAPS AS FAR SW AS OK BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THIS ZONE OF STORM INITIATION WILL LIE ON SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID
AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH GENERALLY 30-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER
FORECAST. AS SUCH...ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED
MULTICELL STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
HAZARD. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN 20-25
DEGREE T/TD SPREADS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND DCAPE NEARING 700
J/KG.

ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS AIR
MASS SLOWLY COOLS AND STABILIZES.

..MEAD/SMITH.. 03/18/2009

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