DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 080057
SWODY1
SPC AC 080056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST SAT NOV 07 2009

VALID 080100Z - 081200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE 00Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM UIL SAMPLED
A STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL RATE ENVIRONMENT WITH UPWARDS OF 400 J/KG OF
MUCAPE. HOWEVER...THE INLAND/EASTWARD SHIFT OF PRIMARY LOW AMPLITUDE
IMPULSE/IMPLIED FORCING FOR ASCENT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE ALONG WITH A NOCTURNALLY COOLING BOUNDARY
LAYER...IS SUGGESTIVE OF SPARSE TSTM COVERAGE THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

..GUYER.. 11/08/2009

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KPQR [072309]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPQR 072309
LSRPQR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
309 PM PST SAT NOV 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM FLOOD BEAVERTON 45.48N 122.82W
11/07/2009 WASHINGTON OR NWS EMPLOYEE

ROAD FLOOING AT SCIENCE PARK DRIVE NEAR THE HOME
DEPOT...WITH ABOUT 4 FT OF WATER COVERING THE ROAD FOR
ABOUT 1/10 MILE. ROAD HAS BEEN BLOCKED OFF.

&&

$$

TBROWN

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KPQR [072236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPQR 072236
LSRPQR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
234 PM PST SAT NOV 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0930 PM TORNADO ROADS END 45.01N 124.01W
11/06/2009 LINCOLN OR NWS STORM SURVEY

NWS STORM SURVEY RATED TORNADO DAMAGE AT EF-0 SCALE WITH
ESTIMATED WIND SPEED 65-85 MPH. PATH LENGTH WAS 150 YARDS
WITH A PATH WIDTH OF 80 YARDS. ELEVEN STRUCTURES WERE
DAMAGED TOTAL...ONE HOME SAW SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE AND
ALL HOMES HAD WINDOWS BLOWN OUT. TWO TREES 24 INCHES IN
DIAMETER WERE UPROOTED...ONE WAS DEPOSITED 30 YARDS AWAY.
ONE TREE 12 INCHES IN DIAMETER WAS SNAPPED IN HALF.

&&

$$

TBROWN

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KTFX [072157]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS55 KTFX 072157
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
257 PM MST SAT NOV 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1014 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CUT BANK 48.63N 112.33W
11/07/2009 M58.00 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS

&&

$$

WILLIAMSON DC

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KPQR [072143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPQR 072143
LSRPQR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
143 PM PST SAT NOV 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1245 PM FLASH FLOOD 3 ESE DOWNTOWN PORTLAND 45.51N 122.63W
11/07/2009 MULTNOMAH OR TRAINED SPOTTER

PONDING WATER AND STANDING WATER AT VARIOUS INTERSECTIONS
IN SE PORTLAND

0105 PM FLOOD HILLSBORO 45.53N 122.94W
11/07/2009 WASHINGTON OR TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTED HEARING ON POLICE SCANNERS OF VARIOIUS ROAD
CLOSURES IN PORTIONS OF HILLSBORO DUE TO STANDING
WATER...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN HILLSBORO

0115 PM FLOOD 2 E DOWNTOWN PORTLAND 45.52N 122.64W
11/07/2009 MULTNOMAH OR PUBLIC

MAJOR STREET FLOODING REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION OF
39TH AND BELMONT

0125 PM FLOOD GRESHAM 45.50N 122.44W
11/07/2009 MULTNOMAH OR TRAINED SPOTTER

REPORTED FLOODING OF LOW LYING PORTIONS OF SE DIVISION
BETWEEN 164TH AVENUE AND 140TH AVENUE

0130 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 E DOWNTOWN PORTLAND 45.52N 122.66W
11/07/2009 M0.98 INCH MULTNOMAH OR CO-OP OBSERVER

MEASURED SINCE RAIN BEGAN AROUND 11 AM...TOTAL IN 2.5
HOURS

&&

$$

TBROWN

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KTFX [072129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 072129
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
229 PM MST SAT NOV 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 N SUNBURST 48.98N 111.91W
11/07/2009 M58 MPH TOOLE MT MESONET

WIND GUSTED TO 58 MPH 1 MILE SOUTH OF SWEETGRASS.

1014 AM NON-TSTM WND GST CUT BANK 48.63N 112.33W
11/07/2009 M57 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS

1014 AM NON-TSTM WND GST PENDROY 48.06N 112.30W
11/07/2009 M56 MPH TETON MT MESONET

&&

$$

WILLIAMSON DC

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071936
SWODY1
SPC AC 071935

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CST SAT NOV 07 2009

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MOIST LOW-LEVEL WLY UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE PAC NW WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WITHIN
MINIMALLY-UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. EXPECT MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH A DECREASING TREND
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

..GOSS.. 11/07/2009

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST SAT NOV 07 2009/

...WRN PARTS OF WA/OREGON...
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC
ACROSS THE NRN PACIFIC COAST AS AN UPPER LOW PERSISTS OVER THE GULF
OF AK. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW
ARE MOVING RAPIDLY EWD FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS WA AND OREGON...WITH
ONE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND ATTM AND AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM FORECAST TO
MOVE ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND ATTENDANT STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 400 MB
ARE RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AOB 400 J/KG. SEVERAL
PERIODS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE TODAY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ENHANCED DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE EWD MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071623
SWODY1
SPC AC 071622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST SAT NOV 07 2009

VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WRN PARTS OF WA/OREGON...
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC
ACROSS THE NRN PACIFIC COAST AS AN UPPER LOW PERSISTS OVER THE GULF
OF AK. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW
ARE MOVING RAPIDLY EWD FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS WA AND OREGON...WITH
ONE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND ATTM AND AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM FORECAST TO
MOVE ONSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND ATTENDANT STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 400 MB
ARE RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AOB 400 J/KG. SEVERAL
PERIODS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE TODAY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ENHANCED DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE EWD MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.

..WEISS/JEWELL.. 11/07/2009

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KPQR [071448]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS56 KPQR 071448
LSRPQR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
648 AM PST SAT NOV 07 2009

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0937 PM TSTM WND DMG ROADS END 45.01N 124.01W
11/06/2009 LINCOLN OR PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED DAMAGE TO MULTIPLE HOUSES. ONE OF THE
HOUSES WAS A 4500 SQ FT HOUSE AND HALF OF IT WAS MISSING.
ANOTHER HOUSE HAD WINDOWS BROKEN AND A DECK DAMAGED.
ANOTHER REPORT SAID THEY SAW A WATER SPOUT AND IT
PROBABLY MOVED ON SHORE AS A TORNADO.

&&

$$

JWOLFE

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071219
SWODY1
SPC AC 071217

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 AM CST SAT NOV 07 2009

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL S/W TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO PIVOT EWD AROUND THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. ONE
SUCH DISTURBANCE IS POISED TO ENTER THE PAC NW DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COLD MID LEVEL AIR /AOB
-25 TO -30 DEG C AT 500 MB/. THIS WILL AID IN MAINTAINING FAVORABLY
STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MUCAPE /GIVEN
HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS/ FOR DEEP UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT/ISOLATED-SCATTERED LIGHTNING AS LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW
FIELDS STRENGTHEN AND ENCOUNTER COASTAL MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...MOIST
ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO S OF AN
AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SURGE
INTO S CENTRAL TX LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AHEAD OF A S/W TROUGH
MOVING E ACROSS NRN MEXICO. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z/SUNDAY.

..GARNER/CORFIDI.. 11/07/2009

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 070852
SWOD48
SPC AC 070852

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 AM CST SAT NOV 07 2009

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA IS FORECAST BY NHC TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
GULF REGION BY TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL WEDNESDAY AS
IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM TROUGH AND E-W
ORIENTED BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF. IDA MAY APPROACH THE GULF COAST
BEFORE RETREATING SEWD INTO THE GULF BY WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE STORM WILL
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT INLAND.
HOWEVER...IDA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
RISKS IN LATER OUTLOOKS. SEE NHC DISCUSSIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON
IDA.

BEYOND DAY 5...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LOW UNTIL
POSSIBLY DAY 8 WHEN AN UPPER TROUGH COULD MOVE INTO THE CNTRL U.S.
PRECEDED BY A RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF. HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE ON THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. UNCERTAINTY
ALSO EXISTS REGARDING DEGREE OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN. FOR THESE
REASONS...NO SEVERE RISK AREA WILL BE INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 11/07/2009

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 070657
SWODY3
SPC AC 070656

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CST SAT NOV 07 2009

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH GREAT LAKES...

MODIFIED CP AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF
NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS...MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS PERIOD.
AN AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WHERE THERMAL
TROUGH OVERTAKES WRN EDGE OF MOIST AXIS. A FEW NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT ALONG
THE SEWD ADVANCING FRONT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH A PORTION OF
THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...CNTRL THROUGH NERN GULF COASTAL REGION...

UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TX SUNDAY WILL BECOME AT LEAST
LOOSELY PHASED WITH NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AS IT ADVANCES EAST INTO
THE SERN STATES ON MONDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA IS FORECAST BY
NHC TO CONTINUE A GENERAL NWD MOTION...REACHING THE CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO MONDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BECOME THE DOMINANT
CIRCULATION OVER THE GULF. UNLESS IDA ACCELERATES NWD...THE MOIST
WARM SECTOR AND ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN OFFSHORE.
NEVERTHELESS...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD IN ADVANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM RESULTING IN A THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF COASTAL STATES.

..DIAL.. 11/07/2009

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 070553
SWODY2
SPC AC 070552

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST FRI NOV 06 2009

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN TX THROUGH SRN LA...

UPPER LOW OVER CNTRL BAJA WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST
THROUGH S TX SUNDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
THE WRN GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN IMPULSE LIFTING NWD AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS S AND SERN
TX...SPREADING INTO SRN LA SUNDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY...MAINLY OVER S TX WHERE WWD ADVECTION OF
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THERMAL TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

WITH INVERTED TROUGH REMAINING OFFSHORE AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA
POSSIBLY EMERGING INTO THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE END OF THIS
PERIOD...NEAR SURFACE WINDS MAY VEER TO ENELY OVER THE WRN GULF.
THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN AND
DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL FROM SERN TX THROUGH SRN LA. RAIN AND
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND DEEP
LAYER ASCENT INCREASES. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SRN LA
UNTIL POSSIBLY VERY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

...PACIFIC NW...

A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL ADVANCE EAST THROUGH BELT OF WLY FLOW.
MOIST...ONSHORE FLOW BENEATH COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND A
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG COASTAL AREAS.

..DIAL.. 11/07/2009

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 070545
SWODY1
SPC AC 070544

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 PM CST FRI NOV 06 2009

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PACIFIC NW...

A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC INTO
THE NWRN CONUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWER AND
THE PRIMARY JET CORE SAGS SWD INTO CA. DEEP WLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK BUOYANCY ALONG THE COAST AS MARINE LAYER IS FORCED
AGAINST THE CASCADE RANGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE COAST
SUGGEST LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STEEP FOR
ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH SBCAPE
VALUES LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 200-300 J/KG...CLOUD TOPS COULD EASILY
EXCEED LEVELS NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING DISCHARGE.

...ELSEWHERE...

DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
ROCKIES...EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WILL BE AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE WILL NOT
AFFECT TX UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY2 PERIOD.

..DARROW/HURLBUT.. 11/07/2009

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