Sunday, May 22, 2011

KHUN [221859]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 221859
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
159 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 PM HAIL WINCHESTER 35.19N 86.11W
05/22/2011 E1.00 INCH FRANKLIN TN TRAINED SPOTTER

FRANKLIN COUNTY PARK


&&

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KHUN [221857]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHUN 221857
LSRHUN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
157 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 PM TSTM WND DMG BELLE MINA 34.66N 86.88W
05/22/2011 LIMESTONE AL EMERGENCY MNGR

TREES DOWN


&&

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KILX [221856]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 221856
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
156 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0146 PM HAIL 1 NNW TREMONT 40.54N 89.50W
05/22/2011 M1.00 INCH TAZEWELL IL MESONET


&&

$$

JRP

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KARX [221853]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 221853
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
153 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0153 PM HAIL NEILLSVILLE 44.56N 90.59W
05/22/2011 E0.88 INCH CLARK WI AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

DAVIS

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KLSX [221852]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLSX 221852
LSRLSX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
152 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0145 PM HAIL MILTON 39.56N 90.65W
05/22/2011 E0.25 INCH PIKE IL TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MILLER

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0856

ACUS11 KWNS 221851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221851
OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-221945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IND...WRN/SRN OH...FAR NRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221851Z - 221945Z

AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORM COVERAGE
MAY REMAIN SPORADIC GIVEN AN ILL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC-SCALE FOCUS...A WW
ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 20Z.

A RECENT FLARE-UP IN TSTM ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED ALONG AND N OF THE
OH VALLEY. OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP DOES APPEAR SLIGHTLY MORE
MARGINAL RELATIVE TO AREAS WITHIN WW 324. NEVERTHELESS...A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 2000
J/KG AND MODERATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KT...WILL SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. GIVEN BROAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER MS VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH...TSTM
COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE UPPER OH VALLEY.

..GRAMS.. 05/22/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...
IND...

LAT...LON 38678626 39648692 41198552 41658503 41818444 41778388
40998295 40718268 39998170 39408166 38918196 38318233
38098268 38548413 38548501 38678626

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0855

ACUS11 KWNS 221849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221849
WIZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-221945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0855
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI...NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221849Z - 221945Z

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON AND A
TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM ERN WI INTO NRN IL.

SURFACE MAP SHOWS RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER ERN WI/NRN IL
WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 50S F. HOWEVER...MID 60S TO NEAR 70S F
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE LURKING UPSTREAM OVER SERN IA AND CNTRL
IL...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EVENING. ALSO AT THAT
TIME...WIND PROFILES WILL HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES. THE 18Z DVN SOUNDING SHOWS VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WITH MINIMAL CAPPING...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER
WIND FIELDS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE.

ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG THE GRAVITY WAVE OVER CNTRL IL...AND THEY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME. FARTHER N... A LEAD BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL TRAVERSE WI WITH PERHAPS A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT.
HOWEVER...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE OUT OF THE DRYLINE
STORMS OVER E CNTRL IA AND NRN MO...WITH TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL AS THEY CROSS THE MS INTO WI AND IL.

..JEWELL.. 05/22/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON 41068933 42688945 44458993 45259071 45518888 45128755
44268741 41148764 41068933

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 326

WWUS20 KWNS 221849
SEL6
SPC WW 221849
OKZ000-TXZ000-230200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 326
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MINERAL WELLS
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 321...WW 322...WW
323...WW 324...WW 325...

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING ERODES
REMAINING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. 18Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THE
WARM SECTOR IS ALREADY EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 5000 J/KG. THIS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
35-40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INTENSIFIES IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SLY LLJ.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.


...MEAD

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KILX [221848]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 221848
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
148 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0127 PM HAIL 1 S MANITO 40.41N 89.78W
05/22/2011 M1.75 INCH MASON IL MESONET


&&

$$

JRP

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KMPX [221848]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 221848
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
148 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0144 PM FUNNEL CLOUD NEW GERMANY 44.88N 93.97W
05/22/2011 CARVER MN 911 CALL CENTER


&&

$$

SCHALLER

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KAPX [221847]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KAPX 221847
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
247 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0236 PM HAIL INDIAN RIVER 45.42N 84.62W
05/22/2011 E1.00 INCH CHEBOYGAN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL WAS REPORTED NEAR INLAND LAKES SCHOOLS


&&

EVENT NUMBER APX1100376

$$

JH

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KEAX [221847]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 221847
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
147 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0143 PM HAIL BRAYMER 39.59N 93.80W
05/22/2011 E0.25 INCH CALDWELL MO FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

PEA SIZE HAIL AND 30 MPH WINDS REPORTED IN BRAYMER.


&&

$$

AJ

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KMPX [221842]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 221842
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
142 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0139 PM HAIL 4 E FARIBAULT 44.30N 93.19W
05/22/2011 M0.88 INCH RICE MN AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

SCHALLER

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KEAX [221840]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KEAX 221840
LSREAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
140 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0139 PM HAIL SIBLEY 39.18N 94.20W
05/22/2011 E0.25 INCH JACKSON MO PUBLIC


&&

$$

AJ

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KLZK [221835]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 221835
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
135 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM HAIL AVILLA 34.68N 92.58W
05/22/2011 E0.88 INCH SALINE AR PUBLIC

HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE COVERED THE GROUND


&&

$$

46

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 325

WWUS20 KWNS 221831
SEL5
SPC WW 221831
ARZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-230200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 325
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
EASTERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 900
PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
JEFFERSON CITY MISSOURI TO 30 MILES SOUTH OF MUSKOGEE OKLAHOMA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 321...WW 322...WW
323...WW 324...

DISCUSSION...EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT
ONE TO TWO HOURS ALONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SERN KS AND NERN
OK. WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...ENVIRONMENT HAS
BECOME STRONGLY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 3000-5000 J/KG.
THE PRESENCE OF 35-40 KT WLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. MOREOVER...SWRN EXTENSION
OF A 30-35 KT SWLY LLJ WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
REGION...RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 150-250 M2/S2 AND AN
ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27025.


...MEAD

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KILX [221829]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 221829
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
129 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0122 PM HAIL 1 S MANITO 40.41N 89.78W
05/22/2011 M1.50 INCH MASON IL MESONET


&&

$$

JRP

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KILX [221825]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KILX 221825
LSRILX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
125 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0123 PM HAIL MANITO 40.42N 89.78W
05/22/2011 M1.00 INCH MASON IL TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

JRP

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KOAX [221824]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS53 KOAX 221824
LSROAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
123 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 N ROGERS 41.49N 96.92W
05/21/2011 COLFAX NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

NUMEROUS REPORTS OF A FUNNEL CLOUD. WAS VISIBLE FROM MANY
DIRECTIONS FROM MANY MILES AWAY. POSSIBLE TOUCHDOWN BUT
NOT CONFIRMED AT THIS TIME.

0325 PM FLOOD PLATTSMOUTH 41.01N 95.89W
05/21/2011 CASS NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

ABOUT 2 INCHES OF WATER REPORTED TO BE ON DOCK ROAD EAST
OF PLATTSMOUTH NEAR THE BOAT DOCK.

0517 PM HAIL HUMBOLDT 40.17N 95.94W
05/21/2011 E0.75 INCH RICHARDSON NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0520 PM HAIL 2 W SURPRISE 41.10N 97.35W
05/21/2011 E1.75 INCH BUTLER NE CO-OP OBSERVER

0524 PM HAIL 3 W RISING CITY 41.20N 97.35W
05/21/2011 E1.00 INCH BUTLER NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

0525 PM HAIL RISING CITY 41.20N 97.30W
05/21/2011 E1.00 INCH BUTLER NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0533 PM HAIL 2 SW SHUBERT 40.22N 95.71W
05/21/2011 M0.75 INCH RICHARDSON NE CO-OP OBSERVER

HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE AROUND 533 PM

0549 PM HAIL DAVID CITY 41.25N 97.13W
05/21/2011 E1.00 INCH BUTLER NE EMERGENCY MNGR

0550 PM HAIL 2 E WEST POINT 41.84N 96.67W
05/21/2011 E1.50 INCH CUMING NE PUBLIC

HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE

0552 PM HAIL COLUMBUS 41.43N 97.36W
05/21/2011 E1.00 INCH PLATTE NE EMERGENCY MNGR

0610 PM HAIL 3 SW AUBURN 40.36N 95.88W
05/21/2011 E1.00 INCH NEMAHA NE TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS

0654 PM HAIL MURDOCK 40.93N 96.28W
05/21/2011 E1.75 INCH CASS NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

0655 PM HAIL RANDOLPH 40.87N 95.56W
05/21/2011 M1.00 INCH FREMONT IA TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE

0710 PM HAIL 3 SW WAYNE 42.21N 97.06W
05/21/2011 E1.75 INCH WAYNE NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0715 PM HAIL WAYNE 42.24N 97.02W
05/21/2011 M1.50 INCH WAYNE NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0718 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 3 S GRETNA 41.10N 96.24W
05/21/2011 SARPY NE AMATEUR RADIO

180TH AND FAIRVIEW ROAD.

0721 PM HAIL SPRINGFIELD 41.08N 96.13W
05/21/2011 M1.50 INCH SARPY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL UP TO 1.5 INCH DIAMETER.

0725 PM HAIL 3 ENE GRETNA 41.16N 96.19W
05/21/2011 M1.00 INCH SARPY NE CO-OP OBSERVER

0725 PM HAIL BRUNO 41.28N 96.96W
05/21/2011 E1.25 INCH BUTLER NE FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0730 PM HAIL OMAHA 41.26N 96.01W
05/21/2011 E1.00 INCH DOUGLAS NE FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0730 PM HAIL LAUREL 42.43N 97.09W
05/21/2011 E0.88 INCH CEDAR NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

0735 PM HAIL MILLARD 41.21N 96.16W
05/21/2011 M1.25 INCH DOUGLAS NE PUBLIC

146TH AND CHANDLER ROAD.

0735 PM HAIL CHALCO 41.18N 96.13W
05/21/2011 E1.00 INCH SARPY NE PUBLIC

163RD AND HARRISON ST.

0740 PM HAIL OMAHA 41.26N 96.01W
05/21/2011 M1.00 INCH DOUGLAS NE TRAINED SPOTTER

FEW QUARTER SIZE HAIL STONES NEAR 145TH AND BLONDO.

0742 PM HAIL 3 E GRETNA 41.14N 96.19W
05/21/2011 E1.00 INCH SARPY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0744 PM HAIL 3 N OFFUTT AFB 41.15N 95.92W
05/21/2011 E1.00 INCH SARPY NE AMATEUR RADIO

0744 PM HAIL OMAHA 41.26N 96.01W
05/21/2011 E1.00 INCH DOUGLAS NE AMATEUR RADIO

144TH AND FORT STREET

0745 PM HAIL OMAHA 41.26N 96.01W
05/21/2011 E1.00 INCH DOUGLAS NE FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0745 PM HAIL BELLEVUE 41.16N 95.92W
05/21/2011 M1.25 INCH SARPY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

0745 PM HAIL OMAHA 41.26N 96.01W
05/21/2011 E1.00 INCH DOUGLAS NE AMATEUR RADIO

0748 PM HAIL BELLEVUE 41.16N 95.92W
05/21/2011 E1.25 INCH SARPY NE AMATEUR RADIO

0751 PM HAIL OMAHA 41.26N 96.01W
05/21/2011 E1.00 INCH DOUGLAS NE AMATEUR RADIO

QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT 156TH AND STATE STREET IN
OMAHA

0802 PM HAIL OMAHA 41.26N 96.01W
05/21/2011 E0.88 INCH DOUGLAS NE AMATEUR RADIO

0804 PM HAIL 2 W FORT CALHOUN 41.46N 96.06W
05/21/2011 E0.88 INCH WASHINGTON NE AMATEUR RADIO

0810 PM HAIL OMAHA 41.26N 96.01W
05/21/2011 E1.00 INCH DOUGLAS NE AMATEUR RADIO

90TH AND BURT STREET.

0810 PM HAIL OMAHA 41.26N 96.01W
05/21/2011 E1.00 INCH DOUGLAS NE AMATEUR RADIO

90TH AND BURT STREET.

0811 PM HAIL OMAHA 41.26N 96.01W
05/21/2011 E1.00 INCH DOUGLAS NE AMATEUR RADIO

108TH AND BLONDO STREET.

0815 PM HAIL 3 N OFFUTT AFB 41.15N 95.92W
05/21/2011 E1.00 INCH SARPY NE OTHER FEDERAL

0818 PM HAIL LOGAN 41.64N 95.79W
05/21/2011 E1.75 INCH HARRISON IA LAW ENFORCEMENT

0820 PM HAIL 1 N HARLAN 41.66N 95.33W
05/21/2011 E0.75 INCH SHELBY IA TRAINED SPOTTER

0827 PM HAIL 3 S DEFIANCE 41.78N 95.34W
05/21/2011 E1.00 INCH SHELBY IA TRAINED SPOTTER

0840 PM HAIL 2 E COUNCIL BLUFFS 41.24N 95.82W
05/21/2011 M1.25 INCH POTTAWATTAMIE IA EMERGENCY MNGR

NEAR TARGET IN EAST COUNCIL BLUFFS.

0842 PM HEAVY RAIN STANTON 41.95N 97.22W
05/21/2011 E2.25 INCH STANTON NE EMERGENCY MNGR

RAINFALL SINCE FRIDAY MORNING...3.15 INCHES.

0855 PM HAIL BELLEVUE 41.16N 95.92W
05/21/2011 E0.75 INCH SARPY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

25TH AND FAIRVIEW ROAD.

0905 PM HAIL BELLEVUE 41.16N 95.92W
05/21/2011 M1.00 INCH SARPY NE TRAINED SPOTTER

SOME CAR DAMAGE...NEAR 205 AND INDUSTRIAL ROAD.

0906 PM HAIL BELLEVUE 41.16N 95.92W
05/21/2011 E1.75 INCH SARPY NE LAW ENFORCEMENT

WAS ORGINALLY SENT AS A REPORT FROM OMAHA.


&&

$$

MILLER

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 324

WWUS20 KWNS 221817
SEL4
SPC WW 221817
ALZ000-GAZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-VAZ000-230100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 324
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN ALABAMA
NORTHERN GEORGIA
SOUTHEAST INDIANA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
EXTREME WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL 900
PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF ROME GEORGIA TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
LEXINGTON KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 321...WW 322...WW 323...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER A
LARGE AREA OF THE TN AND CENTRAL OH VALLEY. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
AND AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODERATELY
STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGER CELLS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.


...HART

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KDVN [221815]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KDVN 221815
LSRDVN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
115 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0500 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 S MACOMB 40.40N 90.68W
05/22/2011 E1.50 INCH MCDONOUGH IL TRAINED SPOTTER

ABOUT 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN FELL BETWEEN 4 AND 5 AM THIS
MORNING.


&&

$$

T. PHILIP

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KARX [221814]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 221814
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
114 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1255 PM HAIL 2 E LA CROSSE 43.83N 91.19W
05/22/2011 E0.75 INCH LA CROSSE WI AMATEUR RADIO

LA CROSSE WFO, MOSTLY PEA SIZE-WITH A FEW 3/4


&&

$$

TMS

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KLZK [221810]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 221810
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
110 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0104 PM HAIL 2 W HIGGINS 34.65N 92.27W
05/22/2011 M0.50 INCH PULASKI AR AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

224

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0854

ACUS11 KWNS 221809
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221809
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-221915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0854
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN AR...NRN MS...SWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321...

VALID 221809Z - 221915Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321
CONTINUES.

WW 321 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 19Z AND THE NEED FOR A WW
REPLACEMENT REMAINS UNCLEAR. LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE ATOP A WEST/EAST-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
30 N TXK TO 25 S TUP AT 18Z. THIS WILL FAVOR TSTM REGENERATION
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST MID-AFTERNOON. GIVEN EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 30 TO 4O KT...A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED MICROBURSTS SHOULD PERSIST WITHIN STRONGER CORES.

..GRAMS.. 05/22/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 34369300 34759292 35069152 35658958 35638852 35338805
34878812 34528846 34248990 34089123 34179257 34369300

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KMPX [221808]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 221808
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
108 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 AM HAIL HASTINGS 44.73N 92.85W
05/22/2011 M0.88 INCH DAKOTA MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0.889 HAIL


&&

$$

SCHALLER

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KMPX [221807]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 221807
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
107 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1259 PM HAIL 2 S WASECA 44.05N 93.50W
05/22/2011 M1.00 INCH WASECA MN 911 CALL CENTER


&&

$$

MPG

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0853

ACUS11 KWNS 221806
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221806
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-222000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0853
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...NERN OK...MUCH OF SRN AND SWRN MO...NRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221806Z - 222000Z

A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS DEVELOPED E OF THE DRYLINE WITH
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NEARLY ALL
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS BEEN ERODED...THUS EXPECTED CU ALONG THE
DRYLINE TO ERUPT INTO INTENSE SUPERCELLS. EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL IS
LIKELY...AND ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS A BIT MARGINAL...IT WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES GIVEN EXTREME INSTABILITY.

..JEWELL.. 05/22/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON 36619153 36159187 36009275 36049408 36049519 36099643
36459673 36859655 37749573 38249409 38389294 38389201
37969159 37169139 36619153

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KARX [221759]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 221759
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1259 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1258 PM HAIL 2 S LA CROSSE 43.80N 91.23W
05/22/2011 E0.25 INCH LA CROSSE WI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

SHEA

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KLZK [221758]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 221758
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1258 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1256 PM HAIL EAST END 34.55N 92.32W
05/22/2011 M0.75 INCH SALINE AR PUBLIC


&&

$$

224

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KLZK [221757]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 221757
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1257 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1254 PM HAIL MABELVALE 34.65N 92.38W
05/22/2011 E0.50 INCH PULASKI AR TRAINED SPOTTER

PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL REPORTED.


&&

$$

224

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KARX [221756]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 221756
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1256 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1134 AM HAIL LA CROSSE 43.83N 91.23W
05/22/2011 E0.75 INCH LA CROSSE WI NWS EMPLOYEE

ALONG STATE STREET


&&

$$

TMS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0852

ACUS11 KWNS 221755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221755
TNZ000-KYZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-221900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0852
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...NWRN GA...MIDDLE/ERN TN...CNTRL/ERN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221755Z - 221900Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN VALLEY. A FEW SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING CU FIELD WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MIDDLE TN AND NORTHERN AL. THIS ACTIVITY IS INTENSIFYING AHEAD OF A
WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS AR/WEST TN...AND IN
REGION WHERE SUBSTANTIAL HEATING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED TODAY.
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE YIELDING MINIMAL CINH AND MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG
IN THIS REGION...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 35-40 KNOTS OF DEEP
LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS SHOULD PROMOTE ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..HART.. 05/22/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...
BMX...HUN...PAH...

LAT...LON 37248706 37928613 38588381 38018267 37028234 35678301
34928422 34178548 34118708 34268796 35688696 37248706

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 323

WWUS20 KWNS 221754
SEL3
SPC WW 221754
IAZ000-ILZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-230200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 323
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN IOWA
WESTERN ILLINOIS
EAST-CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHERN MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
DUBUQUE IOWA TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF COLUMBIA MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 321...WW 322...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ALONG PRIMARY
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM N-CNTRL IA TO E-CNTRL KS AS WELL AS ALONG
GRAVITY WAVE-INDUCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL IL INTO
E-CNTRL MO. AMBIENT WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST AND
MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3500
J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATELY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF DESTRUCTIVE HAIL AND TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...MEAD

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KMPX [221746]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KMPX 221746
LSRMPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1246 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1230 PM HAIL AMERY 45.30N 92.36W
05/22/2011 M0.50 INCH POLK WI TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

MPG

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0851

ACUS11 KWNS 221742
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221742
OKZ000-TXZ000-221945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0851
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL/NWRN TX INTO S-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221742Z - 221945Z

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE BY MID-AFTERNOON. PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/. THE PROBABILITY OF ONE OR MORE WW ISSUANCES
BY 20Z IS 80 PERCENT.

17Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED DRYLINE FROM AROUND 40 E SPS
SWWD TO 60 SE MAF. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CU
DEEPENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. INCIPIENT TSTM FORMATION
APPEARS PROBABLE BY 19Z AS AIR MASS HAS BECOME LARGELY UNCAPPED
BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z DRT/FWD RAOBS WITH MLCAPE AOA 4000 J/KG. THIS
EXTREME INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 35 TO 40 KT W/SWLYS AT 500 MB WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS PRIMARILY PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL.

MODEST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE
TORNADO THREAT. ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY...LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
INCREASING NEAR AND AFTER 00Z AS MASS RESPONSE OCCURS DOWNSTREAM OF
A WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. FARTHER EAST... STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SAMPLED IN PROFILER/VWP DATA ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR SHOULD
LARGELY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND GIVEN THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

..GRAMS.. 05/22/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 34329783 34879749 34899650 34319637 32549758 31499895
31220006 31360108 31640119 31910099 32499995 32859874
34329783

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KLZK [221739]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 221739
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1239 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1040 AM HAIL PATTERSON 35.26N 91.24W
05/22/2011 M0.75 INCH WOODRUFF AR EMERGENCY MNGR


&&

$$

224

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 221730
SWODY2
SPC AC 221729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
NRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS NEWD
INTO THE MIDDLE MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS AND LWR GREAT LAKES....

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW...LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY...WILL SHIFT
ENEWD INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE MS VALLEY INTO SRN KS/NRN OK LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY IN THE WRN STATES AND PROGRESS RAPIDLY EWD
THROUGH THE SWRN STATES. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AN UPPER
IMPULSE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NV/SRN CA... WILL BE EJECTED EWD
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND MOVE ACROSS OK/TX MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WEST SHOULD MAINTAIN DRYLINE FURTHER WEST
TOMORROW THAN TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NEAR A P28-LTS-EAST OF
ABI LINE AT LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE AREA OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
LIKELY TO RESULT IN ANOTHER ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ACROSS A LARGE
AREA...WITH THE INGREDIENTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK MOST FAVORABLE FOR
GREATER SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION/MCS MAY BE ONGOING PORTIONS OF SRN OK/NRN
KS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
INTERACTS WITH QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SHIFT
MOSTLY EWD WITHIN MODERATELY STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT AS LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS INTO AR/MO. GIVEN AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40 DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...CLUSTER MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE FRONT...WITH EFFECTIVE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED IN NRN OK. AS CONVECTION SHIFTS
EWD INTO AR/MO...AIR MASS SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY GIVEN LARGE SOURCE
OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF CONVECTION. WITH
HEATING...EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AS UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STORMS REDEVELOPING NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT AND
EAST OF DRYLINE IN OK AND SRN KS. THE MOISTENED BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION COMBINED WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED IN THE MODERATE
RISK AREA...AND THE MOISTENED BOUNDARY LAYER AND VEERED LOW LEVEL
WINDS ALSO SUGGEST A FEW TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
NRN TX DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN NRN
TX/OK/SRN KS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT AS AN MCS OR
TWO...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL INTO AR AND MO.

...TN AND OH VALLEYS...
MORNING CLUSTERS OF WEAKENING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE STORMS
SHOULD BE LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE FRONT AND STRONG DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE COLD FRONT FROM WRN OH SWWD INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA AND SRN IL BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT RENEWED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT AND SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE
OH/TN VALLEYS. THE SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH A
TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE IN THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS HINT AT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AND SHIFTING EWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS APPEARS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE FORECAST OF DEEP WSWLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT.

..IMY.. 05/22/2011

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KLZK [221713]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 221713
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1213 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1201 PM HAIL LONOKE 34.79N 91.90W
05/22/2011 M1.00 INCH LONOKE AR LAW ENFORCEMENT


&&

$$

224

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KIND [221712]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KIND 221712
LSRIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
112 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1225 PM HAIL SSW WHITESTOWN 40.00N 86.35W
05/22/2011 E0.75 INCH BOONE IN TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

CP

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WATCHES: Tornado Watch Number 322

WWUS20 KWNS 221709
SEL2
SPC WW 221709
IAZ000-MNZ000-WIZ000-230100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 322
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST IOWA
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
WESTERN WISCONSIN

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1210 PM UNTIL
800 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MANKATO MINNESOTA TO 45 MILES EAST OF LA CROSSE WISCONSIN. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 321...

DISCUSSION...SRN FRINGE OF ELEVATED TSTMS ONGOING ACROSS SERN MN/WRN
WI MAY BECOME PROGRESSIVELY SURFACE BASED THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO
THE RAPID NWD FLUX OF 60+ F DEWPOINTS ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT.
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WARM AND COLD
FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM E-CNTRL SD TOWARD
CNTRL MN. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW COUPLED
WITH THE MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.


...MEAD

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KARX [221648]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KARX 221648
LSRARX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1148 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1134 AM HAIL ROCHESTER 44.01N 92.48W
05/22/2011 E0.25 INCH OLMSTED MN TRAINED SPOTTER

NW SIDE OF ROCHESTER


&&

$$

TMS

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KEWX [221644]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KEWX 221644
LSREWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1144 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0455 PM HAIL BUCHANAN DAM 30.80N 98.44W
05/21/2011 E0.25 INCH LLANO TX PUBLIC

0612 PM HAIL TOW 30.88N 98.47W
05/21/2011 E0.88 INCH LLANO TX PUBLIC

0612 PM HAIL 2 E TOW 30.88N 98.43W
05/21/2011 E1.00 INCH BURNET TX PUBLIC

0648 PM HAIL 2 WNW BRIGGS 30.88N 97.95W
05/21/2011 M2.75 INCH BURNET TX STORM CHASER

0649 PM HAIL 4 NNE BURNET 30.81N 98.20W
05/21/2011 M1.50 INCH BURNET TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0654 PM HAIL 2 NNW FLORENCE 30.87N 97.81W
05/21/2011 M0.88 INCH WILLIAMSON TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

0701 PM HAIL 4 N BRIGGS 30.93N 97.91W
05/21/2011 M0.70 INCH BURNET TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0708 PM HAIL BERTRAM 30.74N 98.06W
05/21/2011 M0.25 INCH BURNET TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0711 PM HAIL BERTRAM 30.74N 98.06W
05/21/2011 M1.00 INCH BURNET TX TRAINED SPOTTER

0726 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 9 N BERTRAM 30.87N 98.06W
05/21/2011 BURNET TX TRAINED SPOTTER

CURRENTLY SEEING A WALL CLOUD.

0730 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 5 W BERTRAM 30.75N 98.14W
05/21/2011 BURNET TX STORM CHASER

0732 PM FUNNEL CLOUD BERTRAM 30.74N 98.06W
05/21/2011 BURNET TX TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER NEAR BERTRAM SEES A WALL CLOUD ROTATING.

0830 PM HAIL 5 NW BURNET 30.81N 98.29W
05/21/2011 E1.50 INCH BURNET TX PUBLIC

0836 PM HAIL BURNET 30.76N 98.23W
05/21/2011 M2.75 INCH BURNET TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

BASEBALL HAIL IN THE CITY OF BURNET.

0836 PM FUNNEL CLOUD BURNET 30.76N 98.23W
05/21/2011 BURNET TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

WALL CLOUD WITH ROTATION IN THE CITY OF BURNET.

0836 PM HAIL BURNET 30.76N 98.23W
05/21/2011 M4.00 INCH BURNET TX PUBLIC

GRAPEFRUIT SIZE HAIL FALLING IN NORTH CENTRAL BURNET.

0840 PM HAIL BURNET 30.76N 98.23W
05/21/2011 M4.50 INCH BURNET TX PUBLIC

5 INCH HAIL MEASURED.

0842 PM HAIL 2 N BURNET 30.79N 98.23W
05/21/2011 M2.75 INCH BURNET TX AMATEUR RADIO

GOLFBALL TO BASEBALL SIZE HAIL NEAR BURNET.

0848 PM HAIL BURNET 30.76N 98.23W
05/21/2011 E2.75 INCH BURNET TX CO-OP OBSERVER

0853 PM HAIL BURNET 30.76N 98.23W
05/21/2011 M2.00 INCH BURNET TX TRAINED SPOTTER

MEASURED HAIL WITH 2.38 INCHES ACROSS.

0853 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 4 SSW FLORENCE 30.79N 97.82W
05/21/2011 WILLIAMSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

FLORENCE FIRE DEPARTMENT OBSERVED FUNNEL CLOUD.

0857 PM TSTM WND DMG ANDICE 30.78N 97.85W
05/21/2011 WILLIAMSON TX EMERGENCY MNGR

MINOR MOBILE HOME DAMAGE IN AND AROUND ANDICE AS WELL
AS SOME FENCES BLOWN DOWN.

0859 PM HAIL BURNET 30.76N 98.23W
05/21/2011 M1.75 INCH BURNET TX PUBLIC

0904 PM FUNNEL CLOUD ANDICE 30.78N 97.85W
05/21/2011 WILLIAMSON TX TRAINED SPOTTER

ROTATING WALL CLOUD OVER THE CITY OF ANDICE.

0924 PM HAIL 1 N BERTRAM 30.76N 98.06W
05/21/2011 M1.00 INCH BURNET TX CO-OP OBSERVER


&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1100226 EWX1100232 EWX1100248 EWX1100227 EWX1100228
EWX1100229 EWX1100233 EWX1100230 EWX1100231 EWX1100234 EWX1100236
EWX1100235 EWX1100249 EWX1100237 EWX1100238 EWX1100245 EWX1100250
EWX1100239 EWX1100240 EWX1100241 EWX1100243 EWX1100247 EWX1100242
EWX1100244 EWX1100246

$$

JPB

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DAY1SVR: Public Severe Weather Outlook (Automatic)

993
WOUS40 KWNS 221626
PWOSPC
ARZ000-IAZ000-ILZ000-KSZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-WIZ000-230200-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OZARK PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL OVER PARTS
OF THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EASTERN IOWA
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MISSOURI
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL TRACK
SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND THE OZARK PLATEAU. THIS FRONT
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE OZARK PLATEAU.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..GRAMS.. 05/22/2011

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KLZK [221622]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 221622
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1122 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1120 AM HAIL GEYER SPRINGS 34.70N 92.35W
05/22/2011 M1.00 INCH PULASKI AR TRAINED SPOTTER


&&

$$

224

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 221619
SWODY1
SPC AC 221617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN MN...ERN IA...PARTS OF
WI/IL/MO...NERN OK AND NWRN AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
SRN PLAINS...

...UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...

DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OVER ERN SD WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL JET
STREAK OVERSPREADING THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ACCORDINGLY DEVELOP EWD
TO CNTRL MN BY 23/00Z WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT RAPIDLY LIFTING NWD
THROUGH ERN IA/IL INTO WI AND LOWER MI TODAY. HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO MIDLEVEL SYSTEM COUPLED WITH FRONTAL
UPLIFT WILL FOSTER SCATTERED SVR TSTMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON INITIALLY
FROM PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL/SERN MN AND ERN IA/NERN MO INTO WI/IL.

THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST...MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS --I.E. MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG OVER MN/WI TO
2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS MO/IL-- COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
ORIENTED ORTHOGONAL TO SURFACE FRONT WILL YIELD A BAND OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE GREATEST
TORNADO POTENTIAL --SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT-- APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN WI INTO IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED BY A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LLJ.

STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO A QLCS TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR MAINLY HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SPREADING EWD THROUGH LOWER
MI AND THE OH VALLEY.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 849.

...SRN PLAINS...

12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG.
GIVEN THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE
THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES ARE
LOCATION AND EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS.

DRYLINE LOCATED FROM WRN OK INTO W-CNTRL AND SWRN TX AS OF MID
MORNING WILL MIX MOST RAPIDLY EWD TODAY ACROSS NRN HALF OF OK WITH
THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM E OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR INTO W-CNTRL TX
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR
DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE FROM NERN OK NEWD INTO MO
WHERE AREA WILL BE INFLUENCED BY LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
STREAK STRETCHING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO SRN PLAINS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG HEATING W OF DRYLINE AND A
BREAKABLE CAP /SEE 12Z FWD SOUNDING/...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE DRYLINE.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEEPER PBL MIXING MAY LEAD TO
DECREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT THIS AFTERNOON...LARGELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX. WHILE THIS MAY TEMPER THE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY...EXPECT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000+ J/KG.
WHEN COUPLED WITH 35-40 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
HAZARD. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE IN THE 23/00-03Z TIME
PERIOD AS A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ENHANCES LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

...LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS INTO SRN APPALACHIANS...

REGENERATIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING ACROSS AR
WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A SWLY LLJ
ORIGINATING OVER SRN TX. CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ALONG
THE SRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF ONGOING STORMS IN CONCERT WITH A
GROWING/DEEPENING COLD POOL MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WHICH WOULD TRACK
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NRN GULF COAST STATES WITH ATTENDANT
THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 850.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NC...

THE EWD PROGRESSION OF A COUPLE OF WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSES WILL
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT BACKGROUND FORCING TO SUPPORT DIURNAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A WARMING/DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WHERE AFTERNOON
MLCAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG OVER NC TO AROUND 500 J/KG
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/PA. THE STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...DIMINISHING WITH SWD EXTENT. AS
SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING
HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS.

..MEAD/GRAMS.. 05/22/2011

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0850

ACUS11 KWNS 221615
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221615
ARZ000-MSZ000-221745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0850
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR INTO NRN MS/SWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321...

VALID 221615Z - 221745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321
CONTINUES.

A FEW STRONGER CORES CONTINUE TO REGENERATE UPSHEAR ATOP OUTFLOW
FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION OVER CNTRL AR. WITH STRONG INSTABILITY IN
PLACE AND A PERSISTENT FEED OF MOISTURE NEWD...THIS TREND MAY
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THIS
ACTIVITY APPEARS MINIMAL...WITH SPORADIC HAIL CORES LIKELY AND HEAVY
RAIN.

SHEAR PROFILES IN THIS AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
THOUGH...AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS AREA FOR ANY UPSCALE GROWTH.

..JEWELL.. 05/22/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 35259369 35509133 35069060 34379069 33569123 33339236
33239327 33629376 34309401 34569410 35259369

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KMEG [221613]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KMEG 221613
LSRMEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1113 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 AM TSTM WND GST 3 SW MARKED TREE 35.50N 90.46W
05/22/2011 E50.00 MPH POINSETT AR AMATEUR RADIO


&&

$$

CCD

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KGGW [221608]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 221608
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1007 AM MDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 AM HEAVY RAIN HOMESTEAD 48.42N 104.54W
05/22/2011 M1.19 INCH SHERIDAN MT CO-OP OBSERVER

RAINFALL TOTAL AS OF 6AM.

0641 AM HEAVY RAIN 11 N BROCKTON 48.31N 104.92W
05/22/2011 M1.11 INCH ROOSEVELT MT COCORAHS

RAINFALL TOTAL AS OF 641AM.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN BROCKTON 48.15N 104.92W
05/22/2011 M0.82 INCH ROOSEVELT MT CO-OP OBSERVER

RAINFALL AS OF 7AM. RAIN IS STILL FALLING.

0700 AM HEAVY RAIN WESTBY 48.87N 104.05W
05/22/2011 M1.17 INCH SHERIDAN MT CO-OP OBSERVER

RAINFALL AS OF 7AM.

0730 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 ENE SCOBEY 48.80N 105.40W
05/22/2011 M0.93 INCH DANIELS MT COCORAHS

RAINFALL AS 730AM.

0800 AM HEAVY RAIN PARK GROVE 48.03N 106.44W
05/22/2011 M4.08 INCH VALLEY MT COCORAHS

STORM TOTAL. RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 8AM YESTERDAY IS 1.62
INCHES.

1000 AM HEAVY RAIN GLASGOW 48.20N 106.64W
05/22/2011 E0.00 INCH VALLEY MT PUBLIC

WATER BACKING UP ON CHERRY CREEK. WATER IS 6 INCHES UP ON
THE FOUNDATION OF TWO HOUSES. THE WATER IS RISING
QUICKLY.


&&

$$

ASCHNETZ

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KLZK [221604]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KLZK 221604
LSRLZK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1103 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1055 AM HAIL 3 NW GEYER SPRINGS 34.73N 92.39W
05/22/2011 M0.50 INCH PULASKI AR TRAINED SPOTTER

HAIL FELL AT THE INTERSECTION OF SHACKLEFORD AND 36TH
STREET.


&&

$$

224

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0849

ACUS11 KWNS 221553
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221553
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-KSZ000-221800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0849
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1053 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN IA...NRN MO...NWRN IL...SWRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221553Z - 221800Z

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONE OR MORE TORNADO WATCHES ARE LIKELY BY
MIDDAY.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED DRYLINE ACROSS ERN
KS...NWRN MO AND INTO IA WHERE MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXISTED AS
A RESULT OF THE UPPER VORT. MEANWHILE...A PSEUDO-WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM CNTRL IA SEWD INTO CNTRL IL...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S F
DEWPOINTS S OF THIS BOUNDARY.

MORNINGS SOUNDINGS SHOWED CLASSIC LOADED GUN WITH SUBSTANTIAL
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE BENEATH A BREAKABLE CAPPING
INVERSION. THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL DEVELOP FIRST
ACROSS MN/IA/WI AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES EWD. NRN EXTENT OF THREAT
AREA WILL COINCIDE WITH WARM FRONT. OTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR SWD
ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO MO AND FAR ERN KS WHERE A SUBSTANTIAL CU
FIELD WAS ALREADY DEVELOPING AND WITH 3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE. SHEAR
PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE CAPABLE OF A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 05/22/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...SGF...DMX...
EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 42938956 42448947 41758955 40959003 40179073 38999185
37979346 37929501 38019553 38329550 39859423 41649341
42949303 43529242 43819145 43789045 43328958 42938956

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