SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221851
OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-221945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IND...WRN/SRN OH...FAR NRN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 221851Z - 221945Z
AT LEAST A MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS
A TORNADO IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORM COVERAGE
MAY REMAIN SPORADIC GIVEN AN ILL-DEFINED SYNOPTIC-SCALE FOCUS...A WW
ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 20Z.
A RECENT FLARE-UP IN TSTM ACTIVITY HAS OCCURRED ALONG AND N OF THE
OH VALLEY. OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP DOES APPEAR SLIGHTLY MORE
MARGINAL RELATIVE TO AREAS WITHIN WW 324. NEVERTHELESS...A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 2000
J/KG AND MODERATE EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KT...WILL SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. GIVEN BROAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER MS VALLEY SHORT WAVE TROUGH...TSTM
COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE UPPER OH VALLEY.
..GRAMS.. 05/22/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...
IND...
LAT...LON 38678626 39648692 41198552 41658503 41818444 41778388
40998295 40718268 39998170 39408166 38918196 38318233
38098268 38548413 38548501 38678626
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