SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221849
WIZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-221945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0855
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WI...NRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 221849Z - 221945Z
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON AND A
TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM ERN WI INTO NRN IL.
SURFACE MAP SHOWS RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER ERN WI/NRN IL
WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 50S F. HOWEVER...MID 60S TO NEAR 70S F
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE LURKING UPSTREAM OVER SERN IA AND CNTRL
IL...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EVENING. ALSO AT THAT
TIME...WIND PROFILES WILL HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES. THE 18Z DVN SOUNDING SHOWS VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WITH MINIMAL CAPPING...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER
WIND FIELDS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE.
ACTIVITY HAS FORMED ALONG THE GRAVITY WAVE OVER CNTRL IL...AND THEY
MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME. FARTHER N... A LEAD BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL TRAVERSE WI WITH PERHAPS A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT.
HOWEVER...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL EVOLVE OUT OF THE DRYLINE
STORMS OVER E CNTRL IA AND NRN MO...WITH TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL AS THEY CROSS THE MS INTO WI AND IL.
..JEWELL.. 05/22/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 41068933 42688945 44458993 45259071 45518888 45128755
44268741 41148764 41068933
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