KLBF [030232]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 030232
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
931 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 PM TSTM WND GST 23 N OSHKOSH 41.74N 102.34W
07/02/2010 M65 MPH GARDEN NE MESONET

&&

$$

13

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KCHS [030151]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 030151
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
951 PM EDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0600 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG ESE SAVANNAH 32.05N 81.08W
07/02/2010 CHATHAM GA BROADCAST MEDIA

*** 1 INJ *** A LARGE TREE BRANCH FELL ONTO A CAR AT EAST
42ND STREET AND BEE ROAD INJURING A WOMEN.

0645 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 N SAVANNAH 32.08N 81.09W
07/02/2010 CHATHAM GA BROADCAST MEDIA

TREE FELL IN WARREN SQUARE.

&&

$$

JAQ

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KLBF [030147]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 030147
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
847 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0845 PM TSTM WND GST 11 S GORDON 42.65N 102.20W
07/02/2010 E60 MPH SHERIDAN NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

13

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KGLD [030140]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 030140
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
740 PM MDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0735 PM FLASH FLOOD BONNY RESERVOIR 39.61N 102.17W
07/02/2010 YUMA CO EMERGENCY MNGR

ALONG HWY 385, AT BONNY STATE PARK, AT LEAST A FOOT OF
WATER IS RUNNING OVER ROAD. LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS CLOSED
THE ROAD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE STATE PARK.

&&

$$

PMM

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KLBF [030053]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 030053
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
753 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0743 PM TSTM WND GST 40 N OSHKOSH 41.99N 102.34W
07/02/2010 E60 MPH GARDEN NE PUBLIC

&&

$$

13

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030046
SWODY1
SPC AC 030044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT EWD ACROSS ND AND
INTO FAR NWRN MN...

...ERN MT/ND AND FAR NWRN MN...
UPPER TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD TONIGHT AS
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE THROUGH THE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY
IMPULSE FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT WAS MOVING NEWD THROUGH MT THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE...A COLD FRONT HAD SHIFTED EWD INTO
ERN MT AND CENTRAL WY. MOST STORMS WERE POST FRONTAL DUE TO THE
STRONGER FORCING LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER
LARGE SCALE LIFT FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
SHIFT NEWD INTO SRN CANADA...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET/WARM
ADVECTION AND GRADUALLY LOWERING HEIGHTS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH
THESE STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...THE SHEAR IN THE CLOUD
BEARING LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY...REFERENCE BIS 00Z
SOUNDING...WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY
SUSTAINED STORMS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
A BAND OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS
STRETCHED FROM WRN NEB SWWD INTO FAR NERN NM. MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW
ACROSS THIS REGION WAS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...20 KT IN NEB TO 10
KT IN SERN CO/NERN NM....WITH WEAK FORCING. THEREFORE EXPECT STORMS
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS BOUNDARY COOLS AND STABILIZES. HOWEVER...THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORM
BAND...ESPECIALLY IN WRN NEB...FAR NWRN KS AND EAST CENTRAL CO...
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL UNTIL 03Z.

..IMY.. 07/03/2010

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KBIS [030044]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KBIS 030044
LSRBIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
744 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0723 PM HAIL 20 NE HETTINGER 46.21N 102.34W
07/02/2010 M1.25 INCH ADAMS ND TRAINED SPOTTER

HAILED FOR 15 MINUTES.

&&

$$

VROLLER

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KGLD [030031]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 030031
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
630 PM MDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0609 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 W BONNY RESERVOIR 39.62N 102.26W
07/02/2010 YUMA CO PUBLIC

1-2 INCH TREE BRANCHES BROKEN AND BLOWN 60 FT FROM THE
TREES. ALSO, HOG FEEDERS BLOWN AROUND YARD.

0609 PM FLASH FLOOD 5 W BONNY RESERVOIR 39.61N 102.26W
07/02/2010 YUMA CO PUBLIC

6 INCHES OF WATER RUNNING OVER COUNTY ROAD.

0611 PM TSTM WND DMG 3 ESE IDALIA 39.69N 102.25W
07/02/2010 YUMA CO LAW ENFORCEMENT

3 MILES OF POWER POLES SNAPPED WITH LIVE WIRES ON THE
ROAD ON HWY 385 BETWEEN COUNTY ROAD 7 AND 9.

&&

$$

PMM

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KGLD [030014]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KGLD 030014
LSRGLD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
613 PM MDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM HAIL 7 W BONNY RESERVOIR 39.60N 102.29W
07/02/2010 E0.75 INCH YUMA CO PUBLIC

&&

$$

PMM

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KGJT [022355]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 022355
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
555 PM MDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 W HOTCHKISS 38.80N 107.78W
07/02/2010 DELTA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

ALONG HWY 92 AND CO RD 3050 NEAR HOTCHKISS...3
COTTONWOOD TREES DOWNED....ROOF OF A HAYSHED BLOWN OFF
200 TO 300 FT FROM SHED...AND POWER LINES DOWNED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000618

$$

MALEKSA

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KTFX [022347]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 022347
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
546 PM MDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0529 PM HAIL 10 WNW GRASS RANGE 47.06N 109.00W
07/02/2010 E1.00 INCH FERGUS MT PUBLIC

&&

$$

JSUK

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KLBF [022341]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 022341
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
641 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0610 PM TORNADO 6 WSW GRANT 40.81N 101.83W
07/02/2010 PERKINS NE PUBLIC

A BRIEF TOUCHDOWN OF A SMALL TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY THE
PUBLIC. THE TORNADO DESTROYED THREE OUTBUILDINGS ON A
FARMSTEAD NEAR GRANT NEBRASKA. RADAR INDICATIONS WERE
THAT IT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

&&

$$

SPRINGER

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KTFX [022325]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 022325
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
525 PM MDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0524 PM HAIL 6 WSW FORESTGROVE 46.95N 109.20W
07/02/2010 E1.00 INCH FERGUS MT TRAINED SPOTTER

MOSTLY PENNIES AND NICKLES...SOME QUARTER SIZE HAIL

&&

$$

JSUK

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KLBF [022318]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KLBF 022318
LSRLBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
618 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0535 PM TSTM WND GST 6 S CHAPPELL 41.01N 102.47W
07/02/2010 E50 MPH DEUEL NE PUBLIC

THE THUNDERSTORM WINDS BLEW SHINGLES OFF OF A HOME.

&&

$$

CJS

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KBYZ [022315]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBYZ 022315
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
515 PM MDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0815 PM TSTM WND GST N HYSHAM 46.29N 107.23W
07/01/2010 E60.00 MPH TREASURE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0820 PM HAIL N HYSHAM 46.29N 107.23W
07/01/2010 M1.75 INCH TREASURE MT PUBLIC

&&

$$

KLEWIS

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1186

ACUS11 KWNS 022302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022302
NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-030000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NERN MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 438...

VALID 022302Z - 030000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 438
CONTINUES.

SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS FROM 23Z PLACES A COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE
ROUGHLY FROM 50 N OLF TO 40 NNW MLS TO 40 SW BIL. THIS COLD FRONT
HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...AND
CONTINUES TO SURGE SEWD. DESPITE MODERATE LL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE...CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING TO INITIATE...WHICH IS
RESULTANT OF A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT IN THE 18Z GGW
SOUNDING. LOW-LEVEL CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS EVIDENT IN THE
23Z SFC OBS...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S/70S.

DESPITE THE COOL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE...VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN PLACE /GREATER THAN 9C PER KM IN THE 18Z GGW
SOUNDING/. GIVEN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED ELEVATED SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL...AND A LESSER THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
PIVOTING ACROSS SERN OR MAY STILL LEAD TO THE INITIATION OF NEW
CONVECTION OVER CNTRL MT THIS EVENING.

..ROGERS.. 07/02/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

LAT...LON 44920794 44941207 48860839 48860401 44920794

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KBOU [022255]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 022255
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
455 PM MDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0445 PM TSTM WND GST 2 NE AMHERST 40.70N 102.14W
07/02/2010 M63.00 MPH PHILLIPS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0353 PM TSTM WND GST 4 E HAXTUN 40.64N 102.55W
07/02/2010 M62.00 MPH PHILLIPS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0328 PM TSTM WND GST 4 E HAXTUN 40.64N 102.55W
07/02/2010 M61.00 MPH PHILLIPS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0227 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NE LAST CHANCE 39.78N 103.51W
07/02/2010 E60.00 MPH WASHINGTON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

DAMAGE TO SMALL TREES IN VICINITY

&&

$$

FREDIN

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KUNR [022249]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS53 KUNR 022249
LSRUNR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
449 PM MDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0435 PM TSTM WND GST BOX ELDER 44.12N 103.07W
07/02/2010 E60 MPH PENNINGTON SD TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

CALDERON

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KBRO [022248]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 022248
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
548 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0509 PM TORNADO HEBBRONVILLE 27.32N 98.69W
07/02/2010 JIM HOGG TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SHERIFFS OFFICE REPORTS SEVERAL OVERTURNED MOBILE HOMES,
DOWN POWER LINES AND A GAS LEAK IN THE CITY OF
HEBBRONVILLE. TX 16, 359, AND FM 1017 CLOSED. 1732 PEOPLE
WITHOUT POWER IN JIM HOGG COUNTY.

&&

$$

JSTRAUB

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KBYZ [022242]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 022242
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
442 PM MDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0410 PM HAIL 7 SSW TWODOT 46.32N 110.10W
07/02/2010 E1.25 INCH WHEATLAND MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

KLEWIS

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KGJT [022238]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 022238
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
438 PM MDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0330 PM TSTM WND GST 5 WNW HOTCHKISS 38.83N 107.80W
07/02/2010 E71 MPH DELTA CO TRAINED SPOTTER

WIND SPEED ESTIMATED. LARGE TREE BRANCH DOWN NEAR
HOTCHKISS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000617

$$

MCS

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KBYZ [022236]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBYZ 022236
LSRBYZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
435 PM MDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0428 PM HAIL WNW HARLOWTON 46.44N 109.84W
07/02/2010 E1.75 INCH WHEATLAND MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

RNL

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KBRO [022230]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KBRO 022230
LSRBRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
530 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0509 PM TORNADO N HEBBRONVILLE 27.32N 98.69W
07/02/2010 JIM HOGG TX OTHER FEDERAL

REPORTED BY BORDER PATROL. PUBLIC ALSO REPORTED PARKED 18
WHEELER FLIPPED ON NORTH SIDE OF TOWN.

&&

$$

JSTRAUB

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KCRP [022218]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KCRP 022218
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
514 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1146 AM TORNADO 11 SW TIVOLI 28.33N 97.02W
06/30/2010 F0 REFUGIO TX PARK/FOREST SRVC

A TORNADO WAS OBSERVED IN AN OPEN FIELD NORTHWEST OF THE
ARANSAS WILDLIFE REFUGE BY PARK OFFICIALS. A NWS STORM
SURVEY INDICATED THE TORNADO WAS ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE
GROUND FOR 7 MILES AS IT MOVED WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER OPEN
COUNTRY, JUST NORTH OF FM 774.

0124 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 6 NNE ROBSTOWN 27.88N 97.62W
06/30/2010 NUECES TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED NEAR LABONTE PARK

0230 PM TORNADO 9 WNW ROBSTOWN 27.83N 97.80W
06/30/2010 F0 NUECES TX NWS STORM SURVEY

A NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM FOUND EVIDENCE OF A BRIEF TORNADO
TOUCHDOWN ALONG FM 666, BETWEEN BANQUETE AND CR 44. A
TELEPHONE LINE WAS PULLED DOWN TO THE GROUND BY SEVERAL
MESQUITE TREES THAT WERE ALMOST UPROOTED. WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 65 MPH. THE TORNADO HAD A WIDTH OF
ROUGHLY 30 YARDS AND A PATH LENGTH OF 50-100 YARDS.

0310 PM TORNADO 5 N BAYSIDE 28.15N 97.24W
06/30/2010 F0 REFUGIO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

ARANSAS COUNTY RECEIVED PUBLIC REPORTS OF A TORNADO NEAR
BAYSIDE

0941 PM TORNADO 1 NE HOLIDAY BEACH 28.14N 96.98W
06/30/2010 F0 ARANSAS TX NWS STORM SURVEY

A NWS STORM SURVEY CONFIRMED A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST
OUTSIDE OF GOOSE ISLAND STATE PARK AND MOVED SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PARK. MEDIUM TO LARGE TREE LIMBS WERE SNAPPED
ALONG A PATH ROUGHLY 1/2 MILE.

0134 AM FLOOD KINGSVILLE 27.51N 97.86W
07/01/2010 KLEBERG TX EMERGENCY MNGR

MOST OF THE SIDE STREETS IN KINGSVILLE ARE INUNDATED WITH
WATER OVER THE CURBS. BARELY PASSABLE THROUGH THE CENTER
OF THE STREETS. EM IS CONCERNED THAT OTHER ROADWAYS
ACROSS THE COUNTY MAY BE TOTALLY IMPASSABLE.

0755 AM FLOOD 7 SE ALICE 27.68N 97.98W
07/01/2010 JIM WELLS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED, INCLUDING CR 433, CR 382, CR211,
AND FM 1352 AND 2508

0839 AM FLASH FLOOD BISHOP 27.58N 97.80W
07/01/2010 NUECES TX EMERGENCY MNGR

RAINFALL TOTAL OF 4.62 INCHES CAUSING FLOODING OF STREETS
AROUND TOWN...HOWEVER ROADS ARE PASSIBLE.

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 8 WNW ORANGE GROVE 27.99N 98.07W
07/01/2010 M0.00 INCH JIM WELLS TX CO-OP OBSERVER

3.5 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED SINCE 630 AM...AND STILL
RAINING. COCORAHS OBSERVER.

0920 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 WNW ORANGE GROVE 27.99N 98.03W
07/01/2010 M4.52 INCH JIM WELLS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS OBSERVATION MEASURED IN 3 HOURS FROM 630AM TO
920AM.

0920 AM TORNADO 2 S ROCKPORT 28.00N 97.07W
07/01/2010 F0 ARANSAS TX PUBLIC

CITIZEN AND FIRE OFFICIAL REPORT OF A TORNADO WHICH
BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF 9TH STREET
AND BUSINESS 35. WINDOWS WERE BLOWN OUT OF THE KIMCO
BUSINESS.

0355 PM FUNNEL CLOUD FREER 27.88N 98.62W
07/01/2010 DUVAL TX EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL FUNNEL CLOUDS WERE REPORTED HALFWAY TO THE GROUND
JUST WEST OF FREER.

0610 PM TORNADO 9 NW KINGSVILLE 27.60N 97.96W
07/01/2010 KLEBERG TX TRAINED SPOTTER

A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY A SKYWARN SPOTTER 9 MILES NW OF
KINGSVILLE.

0634 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 1 N BEN BOLT 27.65N 98.08W
07/01/2010 JIM WELLS TX STORM CHASER

STORM CHASER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD JUST NORTH OF BEN
BOLT.

0640 PM FLOOD 8 SSW ALICE 27.65N 98.12W
07/01/2010 JIM WELLS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

COUNTY ROAD NEAR HOUSE IS FLOODED. CARS MAKING IT THROUGH
VERY SLOWLY. CREEK 200 YRDS WEST OF OBSERVER OVERFLOWING
BANK WHICH HAS FLOODED THE ADJACENT FIELD.

0812 PM FLASH FLOOD PORTLAND 27.88N 97.33W
07/01/2010 SAN PATRICIO TX BROADCAST MEDIA

WILDCAT DRIVE FROM LANG ROAD TO MEMORIAL PARKWAY IS
FLOODED.

0235 PM FLOOD BEEVILLE 28.41N 97.75W
07/02/2010 BEE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

HEAVY RAIN MINOR WATER ON ROUTE 888, 59 WEST AND FM 351.
RADAR DEPICTED 3-4 INCH HOURLY RAIN RATES.

0443 PM FLOOD CHARCO 28.73N 97.63W
07/02/2010 GOLIAD TX TRAINED SPOTTER

OBSERVER REPORTS 3.5 INCHES IN 1.5 HOURS. STANDING WATER
ON PROPERTY AND NEARBY ROAD. VEHICLES ABLE TO DRIVE
THROUGH WATER...BUT VERY CAUTIOUSLY.

&&

$$

JR

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KCRP [022213]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 022213
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
513 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0941 PM TORNADO 1 NE HOLIDAY BEACH 28.14N 96.98W
06/30/2010 F0 ARANSAS TX NWS STORM SURVEY

A NWS STORM SURVEY CONFIRMED A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN JUST
OUTSIDE OF GOOSE ISLAND STATE PARK AND MOVED SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PARK. MEDIUM TO LARGE TREE LIMBS WERE SNAPPED
ALONG A PATH ROUGHLY 1/2 MILE.

&&

$$

JR

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KCRP [022206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 022206
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
506 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1146 AM TORNADO 11 SW TIVOLI 28.33N 97.02W
06/30/2010 F0 REFUGIO TX PARK/FOREST SRVC

A TORNADO WAS OBSERVED IN AN OPEN FIELD NORTHWEST OF THE
ARANSAS WILDLIFE REFUGE BY PARK OFFICIALS. A NWS STORM
SURVEY INDICATED THE TORNADO WAS ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE
GROUND FOR 7 MILES AS IT MOVED WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER OPEN
COUNTRY, JUST NORTH OF FM 774.

&&

$$

JR

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KBOU [022206]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 022206
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
406 PM MDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0353 PM TSTM WND GST 4 E HAXTUN 40.64N 102.55W
07/02/2010 M62.00 MPH PHILLIPS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0328 PM TSTM WND GST 4 E HAXTUN 40.64N 102.55W
07/02/2010 M61.00 MPH PHILLIPS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0227 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NE LAST CHANCE 39.78N 103.51W
07/02/2010 E60.00 MPH WASHINGTON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

DAMAGE TO SMALL TREES IN VICINITY

&&

$$

FREDIN

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KHGX [022152]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KHGX 022152
LSRHGX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
452 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0400 PM FLASH FLOOD SWEENY 29.05N 95.70W
07/01/2010 BRAZORIA TX EMERGENCY MNGR

30-35 HOMES FLOODED IN SWEENY

0400 PM FLASH FLOOD WEST COLUMBIA 29.14N 95.65W
07/01/2010 BRAZORIA TX EMERGENCY MNGR

40-45 HOMES AND BUSINESSES FLOODED.

&&

$$

CAR

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KABQ [022146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KABQ 022146
LSRABQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
346 PM MDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1030 PM FLASH FLOOD 6 NW MINERAL HILL 35.67N 105.48W
07/01/2010 SAN MIGUEL NM PUBLIC

HEAVY RAINS CARRIED LOGS ACROSS A PRIVATE ROADWAY ABOUT
ONE HALF MILE DOWNSTREAM OF THE TECOLOTE FIRE BURN AREA.
ROAD WAS IMPASSIBLE FOR A TIME. THE HEAVY RAINS WASHED
DEBRIS FROM THE BURN SCAR INTO BLUE CREEK WHICH HAS
DOUBLED IN SIZE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1002085

$$

JLP

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KCRP [022146]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KCRP 022146
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
446 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0235 PM FLOOD BEEVILLE 28.41N 97.75W
07/02/2010 BEE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

HEAVY RAIN MINOR WATER ON ROUTE 888, 59 WEST AND FM 351.
RADAR DEPICTED 3-4 INCH HOURLY RAIN RATES.

0443 PM FLOOD CHARCO 28.73N 97.63W
07/02/2010 GOLIAD TX TRAINED SPOTTER

OBSERVER REPORTS 3.5 INCHES IN 1.5 HOURS. STANDING WATER
ON PROPERTY AND NEARBY ROAD. VEHICLES ABLE TO DRIVE
THROUGH WATER...BUT VERY CAUTIOUSLY.

&&

$$

DVOGELSA

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1185

ACUS11 KWNS 022143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022143
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-022315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1185
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0443 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN MT...WRN ND...EXTREME NWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 022143Z - 022315Z

21Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A 997 MB LOW OVER SERN MT WITH A DRY LINE
BULGING NEWD ACROSS SERN MT AND NERN WY. CUMULUS WAS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE DRY LINE INTERFACE AND AHEAD OF A SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SITUATED JUST EAST OF KGGW AND KJDN.

DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOWER-MID 90S COMMON AMID UPPER 50S TO MID 60S DEW POINTS. GIVEN
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.5 DEG C PER KM...RESULTANT
MLCAPE WAS WELL OVER 2000 J/KG. QUESTION REMAINS IF THE CAP CAN BE
BREACHED AND WHETHER STORMS CAN INITIATE AND BECOME SUSTAINED.
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT DAMAGING/SEVERE WINDS AND
HAIL SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP. 18Z HIGH-RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH
MODEL HAS BEEN INSISTENT IN DEVELOPING STORMS IN SERN MT BY 23Z WITH
SUBSEQUENT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO WRN ND BY LATE EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPING CUMULUS AND SHOULD
INITIATION OCCUR...A WEATHER WATCH WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

..RACY.. 07/02/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 45040588 45920661 47070569 48770462 48840331 48490252
47750229 46980249 45070407 45040588

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KCRP [022143]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...corrected

NWUS54 KCRP 022143
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
442 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0920 AM TORNADO 2 S ROCKPORT 28.00N 97.07W
07/01/2010 F0 ARANSAS TX PUBLIC

CITIZEN AND FIRE OFFICIAL REPORT OF A TORNADO WHICH
BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF 9TH STREET
AND BUSINESS 35. WINDOWS WERE BLOWN OUT OF THE KIMCO
BUSINESS.

&&

$$

ATARDY

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KCYS [022141]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 022141
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
341 PM MDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0320 PM TSTM WND GST WHITAKER 41.41N 104.87W
07/02/2010 M52 MPH LARAMIE WY DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

$$

SCARPENT

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KCYS [022134]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KCYS 022134
LSRCYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
334 PM MDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0328 PM TSTM WND GST 12 N CHEYENNE 41.32N 104.79W
07/02/2010 E60 MPH LARAMIE WY PUBLIC

&&

$$

GCLAYCOM

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KBOU [022129]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS55 KBOU 022129
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
329 PM MDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0328 PM TSTM WND GST 4 E HAXTUN 40.64N 102.55W
07/02/2010 M61.00 MPH PHILLIPS CO TRAINED SPOTTER

0227 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NE LAST CHANCE 39.78N 103.51W
07/02/2010 E60.00 MPH WASHINGTON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

DAMAGE TO SMALL TREES IN VICINITY

&&

$$

FREDIN

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KGJT [022111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGJT 022111
LSRGJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
311 PM MDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0253 PM TSTM WND GST RIFLE 39.54N 107.78W
07/02/2010 M60 MPH GARFIELD CO ASOS

PEAK WIND GUST MEASURED AT RIL ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER GJT1000616

$$

MALEKSA

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KCRP [022111]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS54 KCRP 022111
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
410 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0230 PM TORNADO 9 WNW ROBSTOWN 27.83N 97.80W
06/30/2010 F0 NUECES TX NWS STORM SURVEY

A NWS STORM SURVEY TEAM FOUND EVIDENCE OF A BRIEF TORNADO
TOUCHDOWN ALONG FM 666, BETWEEN BANQUETE AND CR 44. A
TELEPHONE LINE WAS PULLED DOWN TO THE GROUND BY SEVERAL
MESQUITE TREES THAT WERE ALMOST UPROOTED. WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 65 MPH. THE TORNADO HAD A WIDTH OF
ROUGHLY 30 YARDS AND A PATH LENGTH OF 50-100 YARDS.

&&

$$

ATARDY

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KTFX [022102]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 022102
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
302 PM MDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0301 PM HAIL 4 W BELGRADE 45.79N 111.27W
07/02/2010 E0.50 INCH GALLATIN MT TRAINED SPOTTER

A HALF-INCH SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED.

&&

$$

JOH

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KBOU [022035]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 022035
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
235 PM MDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0227 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NE LAST CHANCE 39.78N 103.51W
07/02/2010 E60.00 MPH WASHINGTON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

DAMAGE TO SMALL TREES IN VICINITY

&&

$$

FREDIN

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021959
SWODY1
SPC AC 021957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT TO ND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN CO ACROSS THE
ADJACENT CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...

...MT...
WRN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK IN SWRN TO CENTRAL MT HAS BEEN SHIFTED
EWD GENERALLY 25-55 MILES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE E/SEWD ADVANCEMENT OF
THE COLD FRONT. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THIS
BOUNDARY EXTENDED SWWD FROM NORTH CENTRAL MT /E OF HVR/ THROUGH SWRN
MT INTO SRN ID AND NWRN NV. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS OUTLOOK FOR MT
INTO WRN/NRN ND REMAINS ON TRACK WITH STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER SWRN/SOUTH CENTRAL MT. FARTHER ENE...STRONG CAP PER 18Z GGW
SOUNDING WITH WARMING IN THE 600-750 MB LAYER SINCE 12Z TODAY
SUGGESTS TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL ACTIVITY SPREADS
INTO THIS REGION FROM THE W/SW WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT.

...UT/CO/MUCH OF WY...
A FEW MIDLEVEL IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TO WY/NRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE ADDITIONAL IMPULSES
MOVE NNEWD ALONG W/NW PERIPHERY OF SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO DAKOTAS. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO THESE IMPULSES WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL NEWD MOVING
TSTMS PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS GIVEN THE STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT /I.E. DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/.
ISOLATED HAIL MAY BE A THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY FROM ERN UT AND
PARTS OF NRN CO GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30 KT/ AND STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WEAK INSTABILITY FROM WY SWD INTO ERN UT AND MUCH OF
WRN/CENTRAL CO WILL LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE.

..PETERS.. 07/02/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010/

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD WITH 500MB TROUGHS OF MODEST
AMPLITUDE TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.
MEANWHILE...DEEP ELY FLOW AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF
ALEX.

OF PRIMARY INTEREST FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE THE WRN U.S.
TROUGH AND THE SMALLER SCALE/EMBEDDED LOBES OF VORTICITY ROTATING
THROUGH THIS FEATURE FROM THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST...ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES...AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND ADJACENT NORTHERN
PLAINS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD GRADUALLY EAST ACROSS MT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL ALSO SINK
SEWD FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...AND EWD INTO
THE WRN DAKOTAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

...MT TO WRN ND...
SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP OF PAST 24H DEPICTS A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PIVOTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND CURRENTLY ENHANCING
LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT ENTERING NW MT. DEEP-LAYER SW FLOW OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A BROAD SWATH OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. EXPECT AIRMASS WILL
AGAIN BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN MT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LATEST SREF FORECASTING SBCAPE OF 1000-2000
J/KG...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING INHIBITION.

THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE WAKE OF THE ISOLATED
BUT WELL-ORGANIZED MORNING STORM NOW MOVING TOWARD THE CANADIAN
BORDER IN HILL COUNTY MT. DESPITE WHAT APPEARS TO BE A GAP BETWEEN
STRONGER DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRANSIENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER
MT THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OROGRAPHIC AND
FRONTAL/OUTFLOW LIFT OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL... SCNTRL...AND SWRN MT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADDITIONAL STORM INITIATION IN THESE AREAS.

LIKE RECENT DAYS...SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
STORM UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ORGANIZATION/ROTATION WITH LARGE HAIL
LIKELY. GIVEN STRONG HEATING PRIOR TO INITIATION...DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ALSO EVOLVE FROM THIS RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION. WHILE THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS...THE SCENARIO MAY
NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN RECENT DAYS WITH AN MCS...OR LARGER-SCALE
TSTM COMPLEX...SPREADING EAST INTO WRN ND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH
A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL.

...CO AND ADJACENT PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ON THE EDGE OF FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW FROM WY INTO
CO...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE DRYLINE/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS FROM SD INTO
WRN NE. WHILE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THESE AREAS MAY
MARGINALLY SUPPORT HAIL...STRONG DOWNDRAFTS MAY BE A GREATER LOCAL
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS MAY INHIBIT GREATER STORM
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CO ATTM THAT COULD AID STORM INITIATION AND
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER UNDERGOES STRONG
HEATING/MIXING NEAR CO/NE BORDER AREA. IF A COUPLE OF STORMS CAN
TAKE ROOT AND DEVELOP EAST INTO GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE A THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION AS
DRY/MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER AID EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL.

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WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 438

WWUS20 KWNS 021944
SEL8
SPC WW 021944
MTZ000-030500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 438
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM MDT FRI JUL 2 2010

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MONTANA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL
1100 PM MDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH
NORTHEAST OF GLASGOW MONTANA TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
LIVINGSTON MONTANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST MT. VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL FOSTER ROBUST AND LONG-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW OF UP TO 50KT...EXPECT STORMS TO BE
WELL ORGANIZED AND INCLUDE SUPERCELLS...WITH THE PROSPECT OF LARGE
HAIL...AS WELL AS LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
CONVECTION WAS ALREADY INITIATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHWEST MT WHERE OROGRAPHIC AND FRONTAL LIFT HAVE OVERCOME
INHIBITION. EXPECT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL MT. DRIER AIRMASS EMANATING FROM WY...MAY
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MT. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS
MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA LATER WILL POSE SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS GIVEN DEEPLY MIXED AND HOT BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL...PERHAPS LINEAR DEVELOPMENT...MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NERN MT. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS STORM MAY ACTUALLY FORM IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL WIND
SHIFT. NONETHELESS...THIS ACTIVITY COULD STILL PRODUCE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24030.

...CARBIN

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KCRP [021940]: Preliminary Local Storm Report...summary

NWUS54 KCRP 021940
LSRCRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
240 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0124 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 6 NNE ROBSTOWN 27.88N 97.62W
06/30/2010 NUECES TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED NEAR LABONTE PARK

0310 PM TORNADO 5 N BAYSIDE 28.15N 97.24W
06/30/2010 REFUGIO TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

ARANSAS COUNTY RECEIVED PUBLIC REPORTS OF A TORNADO NEAR
BAYSIDE

0134 AM FLOOD KINGSVILLE 27.51N 97.86W
07/01/2010 KLEBERG TX EMERGENCY MNGR

MOST OF THE SIDE STREETS IN KINGSVILLE ARE INUNDATED WITH
WATER OVER THE CURBS. BARELY PASSABLE THROUGH THE CENTER
OF THE STREETS. EM IS CONCERNED THAT OTHER ROADWAYS
ACROSS THE COUNTY MAY BE TOTALLY IMPASSABLE.

0755 AM FLOOD 7 SE ALICE 27.68N 97.98W
07/01/2010 JIM WELLS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED, INCLUDING CR 433, CR 382, CR211,
AND FM 1352 AND 2508

0839 AM FLASH FLOOD BISHOP 27.58N 97.80W
07/01/2010 NUECES TX EMERGENCY MNGR

RAINFALL TOTAL OF 4.62 INCHES CAUSING FLOODING OF STREETS
AROUND TOWN...HOWEVER ROADS ARE PASSIBLE.

0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 8 WNW ORANGE GROVE 27.99N 98.07W
07/01/2010 M0.00 INCH JIM WELLS TX CO-OP OBSERVER

3.5 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED SINCE 630 AM...AND STILL
RAINING. COCORAHS OBSERVER.

0920 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 WNW ORANGE GROVE 27.99N 98.03W
07/01/2010 M4.52 INCH JIM WELLS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

COCORAHS OBSERVATION MEASURED IN 3 HOURS FROM 630AM TO
920AM.

0930 AM TORNADO 2 S ROCKPORT 28.01N 97.05W
07/01/2010 ARANSAS TX PUBLIC

CITIZEN REPORT OF A TORNADO MOVED THROUGH 2200 BLOCK OF
SOUTH HIGHWAY 35 SOUTH OF ROCKPORT AND BLEW OUT WINDOWS.
LAW ENFORCEMENT IS IN ROUTE.

0355 PM FUNNEL CLOUD FREER 27.88N 98.62W
07/01/2010 DUVAL TX EMERGENCY MNGR

SEVERAL FUNNEL CLOUDS WERE REPORTED HALFWAY TO THE GROUND
JUST WEST OF FREER.

0610 PM TORNADO 9 NW KINGSVILLE 27.60N 97.96W
07/01/2010 KLEBERG TX TRAINED SPOTTER

A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY A SKYWARN SPOTTER 9 MILES NW OF
KINGSVILLE.

0634 PM FUNNEL CLOUD 1 N BEN BOLT 27.65N 98.08W
07/01/2010 JIM WELLS TX STORM CHASER

STORM CHASER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD JUST NORTH OF BEN
BOLT.

0640 PM FLOOD 8 SSW ALICE 27.65N 98.12W
07/01/2010 JIM WELLS TX TRAINED SPOTTER

COUNTY ROAD NEAR HOUSE IS FLOODED. CARS MAKING IT THROUGH
VERY SLOWLY. CREEK 200 YRDS WEST OF OBSERVER OVERFLOWING
BANK WHICH HAS FLOODED THE ADJACENT FIELD.

0812 PM FLASH FLOOD PORTLAND 27.88N 97.33W
07/01/2010 SAN PATRICIO TX BROADCAST MEDIA

WILDCAT DRIVE FROM LANG ROAD TO MEMORIAL PARKWAY IS
FLOODED.

0235 PM FLOOD BEEVILLE 28.41N 97.75W
07/02/2010 BEE TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

HEAVY RAIN MINOR WATER ON ROUTE 888, 59 WEST AND FM 351.
RADAR DEPICTED 3-4 INCH HOURLY RAIN RATES.

&&

$$

ATARDY

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1184

ACUS11 KWNS 021904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021903
MTZ000-022030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1184
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND CENTRAL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 021903Z - 022030Z

THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN INTO CENTRAL MT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

UPPER IMPULSE OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY IS RAPIDLY MOVING NEWD INTO
ALBERTA...WHILE SECOND DISTURBANCE IS DROPPING SEWD INTO ORE. THOUGH
STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO EXIT NWD AWAY FROM MT WITH
THE ALBERTA SHORTWAVE...THERMALLY DIRECT CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE LOW-LEVEL COLD FRONT SWD AND EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL MT INTO SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY 00Z.
MEANWHILE...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE 80S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER ERN MT...WITH 60S AND 70S F NOTED OVER SWRN MT.
THIS HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD STRONG DESTABILIZATION OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT...WHERE CUMULUS FIELD IS BEGINNING TO
DEEPEN AT 1830Z PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.

GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR
OVER SWRN MT WITH FAVORABLE TERRAIN INDUCED CIRCULATIONS. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOWEST 100 MB MEAN MIXING RATIO/S RANGING
FROM 8-11 G/KG WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG BY MID
AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND 40-50 KT WILL ALSO RESIDE NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
VALUES AOA 40 KT...FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.

OVER NERN MT...STRONG CINH IS OBSERVED IN 18Z GGW RAOB...AND
POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST DESTABILIZATION IS IN QUESTION DUE TO MEAGER
LARGE SCALE ASCENT. AS A RESULT...STORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE
MORE GRADUAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRONGER CAP...WITH
DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE ALONG OR SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE SURGING COLD
FRONT. GIVEN DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR MAINLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...LONG STORM RESIDENCE TIMES ALONG THE BOUNDARY ARE
EXPECTED...SUGGESTING LINEAR ORGANIZATION TO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PROBABLE. THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR
WILL ALSO FAVOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFT CORES...IN
ADDITION TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH TIME.

..GARNER.. 07/02/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON 44921285 45371331 46371273 47171085 48270919 48190741
47420675 45910821 45051019 44921285

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MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1183

ACUS11 KWNS 021820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021819
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-021915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021819Z - 021915Z

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN CO OVER
THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING ACROSS CNTRL CO DUE TO WARMING
SFC TEMPS AND DESTABILIZATION. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL EXPAND EWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS OF ERN CO. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MODERATE INSTABILITY
IS DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN CO WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY
BELOW 30 KT. THIS SUGGESTS ANY SEVERE THREAT THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
REMAIN UNORGANIZED GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE SFC TO 850 MB LAPSE
RATES EXCEED 8.0 C/KM. THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS.

IN NERN CO...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTH AS
EVIDENCED BY THE PLATTEVILLE PROFILER. THIS COULD SUPPORT A MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT WITH SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION TO THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW...TEMPS ALOFT ARE A BIT
COOLER WHICH WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. IF A CLUSTER OF
STRONG STORMS CAN DEVELOP...THEN A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AND A WW MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 07/02/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41040310 39720243 38070225 37390304 37130411 37440495
38170553 38960564 40430568 41040478 41040310

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KGGW [021806]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KGGW 021806
LSRGGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1206 PM MDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1123 PM TSTM WND DMG 14 SSE CULBERTSON 47.94N 104.45W
07/01/2010 RICHLAND MT TRAINED SPOTTER

ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTBLEW A 15 FOOT DIAMETER
HOPPER OVER

1040 PM TSTM WND DMG 23 N CIRCLE 47.75N 105.60W
07/01/2010 MCCONE MT TRAINED SPOTTER

1 INCH TREE LIMBS BROKE OFF...6 TO 8 INCH DEAD TREE TOPS
BROKE OFF

1040 PM TSTM WND DMG 13 N CIRCLE 47.60N 105.60W
07/01/2010 MCCONE MT PUBLIC

AWNIG PORCH FLIPPED OVER AND UP ON HOUSE...EXACT TIME
UNKNOWN

1042 PM TSTM WND GST 10 S VIDA 47.69N 105.49W
07/01/2010 M54 MPH MCCONE MT MESONET

DOT COW CREEK SITE

&&

$$

MATTM

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 021739
SWODY2
SPC AC 021738

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SSWWD TO
NRN/WRN NEB AND SERN WY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NWRN U.S. ON
SATURDAY AS STRONGER BAND OF WLY MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS REACH SWRN
CANADA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED
OFF THE COASTS OF SERN AK/NWRN BC...WILL DIG SEWD WITHIN THE SRN
BRANCH OF THE SPLIT FLOW THROUGH THE PAC NW TOWARD NV. THIS WILL
SUPPORT THE SRN EXTENT OF THE WRN LONGWAVE TROUGH TO LAG OVER THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH DAY 2. A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL STATES TO GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN U.S. WILL
LIMIT EWD SHIFT OF A TROUGH FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO ND/CENTRAL
CANADA THIS PERIOD. MODELS MAINTAIN ONLY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS
NEB TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY E/SEWD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS/NEB...AND SHOULD REACH NRN MN TO NWRN KS AND ERN CO BY 12Z
SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...WEAK IMPULSES WILL TRACK NNEWD ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
WHILE ADDITIONAL IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SUGGESTING IMPULSES FROM
THESE TWO VORTICITY STREAMS SHOULD PHASE OVER THE MID MO TO UPPER MS
VALLEYS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF DAY 2.

...ERN DAKOTAS/WRN AND NRN MN/NRN AND WRN NEB/SERN WY...
GIVEN SLOW E/SEWD MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...A MINOR WWD
ADJUSTMENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK IN ERN ND/SD HAS BEEN MADE IN THIS DAY
2 OUTLOOK. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS ALSO BEEN EXPANDED WNWWD INTO
SERN WY TO ACCOUNT FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT/SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS
THE COLD FRONT REACHES THIS AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.

AT 12Z SATURDAY...TSTMS...POTENTIAL SRN EXTENT OF AN MCS MAINLY OVER
CANADA...MAY BE AFFECTING FAR NRN/NERN MN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN AND/OR MOVE AWAY FROM NRN MN. MEANWHILE...SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN RICH MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NRN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 REACHING THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR. MLCAPE
VALUES TO AROUND 3000 J/KG SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NERN SD/ERN ND AND
NWRN MN. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA SUGGEST THE
NEWD TRACKING IMPULSES AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
REQUIRED TO OVERCOME A CAPPING INVERSION EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW/ DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LAG THE COLD FRONT...SUFFICIENT SHEAR /AROUND
30 KT/ WILL SUPPORT MULTICELLS AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WITH INITIAL ACTIVITY NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH MOVEMENT OFF THE
COLD FRONT. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/NWRN
MN...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT WITH THE ACTIVITY
ALONG THE FRONT AND WITH ANY COLD POOL GENERATION.

A STRENGTHENING/VEERING LLJ FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN UPSCALE GROWTH OF ONE
OR MORE MCS/S FROM NEB INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH PRIMARY THREAT
BECOMING DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY /5 PERCENT/ HAS BEEN SHIFTED WWD IN
THIS OUTLOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO/ERN NM JUXTAPOSED ALONG WRN EXTENT OF MOISTURE
RETURN WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO NERN NM WHERE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
THE STEEPEST. THE SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PROMOTE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /25-30 KT/ FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELLS
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

..PETERS.. 07/02/2010

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KTFX [021727]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 021727
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1126 AM MDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0945 AM TSTM WND DMG 12 SSE LOTHAIR 48.32N 111.09W
07/02/2010 LIBERTY MT PUBLIC

FOUR POWER POLES DOWN NEAR TIBER DAM. WIND SPEED
ESTIMATED AT 70 MPH.

&&

$$

NJL

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KTFX [021657]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 021657
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1057 AM MDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1055 AM TSTM WND GST 24 N GILDFORD 48.91N 110.31W
07/02/2010 E60 MPH HILL MT TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

$$

MPJ

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021631
SWODY1
SPC AC 021630

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT TO ND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN CO ACROSS THE
ADJACENT CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD WITH 500MB TROUGHS OF MODEST
AMPLITUDE TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.
MEANWHILE...DEEP ELY FLOW AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF
ALEX.

OF PRIMARY INTEREST FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE THE WRN U.S.
TROUGH AND THE SMALLER SCALE/EMBEDDED LOBES OF VORTICITY ROTATING
THROUGH THIS FEATURE FROM THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST...ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES...AND INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND ADJACENT NORTHERN
PLAINS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD GRADUALLY EAST ACROSS MT THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL ALSO SINK
SEWD FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...AND EWD INTO
THE WRN DAKOTAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

...MT TO WRN ND...
SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP OF PAST 24H DEPICTS A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH
PIVOTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH AND CURRENTLY ENHANCING
LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT ENTERING NW MT. DEEP-LAYER SW FLOW OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A BROAD SWATH OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. EXPECT AIRMASS WILL
AGAIN BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND ERN MT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LATEST SREF FORECASTING SBCAPE OF 1000-2000
J/KG...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING INHIBITION.

THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE WAKE OF THE ISOLATED
BUT WELL-ORGANIZED MORNING STORM NOW MOVING TOWARD THE CANADIAN
BORDER IN HILL COUNTY MT. DESPITE WHAT APPEARS TO BE A GAP BETWEEN
STRONGER DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRANSIENT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER
MT THIS AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT OROGRAPHIC AND
FRONTAL/OUTFLOW LIFT OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL... SCNTRL...AND SWRN MT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADDITIONAL STORM INITIATION IN THESE AREAS.

LIKE RECENT DAYS...SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
STORM UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ORGANIZATION/ROTATION WITH LARGE HAIL
LIKELY. GIVEN STRONG HEATING PRIOR TO INITIATION...DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ALSO EVOLVE FROM THIS RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION. WHILE THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVENTUAL
EVOLUTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS...THE SCENARIO MAY
NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN RECENT DAYS WITH AN MCS...OR LARGER-SCALE
TSTM COMPLEX...SPREADING EAST INTO WRN ND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH
A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL.

...CO AND ADJACENT PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ON THE EDGE OF FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW FROM WY INTO
CO...AND PERHAPS ALONG THE DRYLINE/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS FROM SD INTO
WRN NE. WHILE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN THESE AREAS MAY
MARGINALLY SUPPORT HAIL...STRONG DOWNDRAFTS MAY BE A GREATER LOCAL
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS MAY INHIBIT GREATER STORM
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CO ATTM THAT COULD AID STORM INITIATION AND
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER UNDERGOES STRONG
HEATING/MIXING NEAR CO/NE BORDER AREA. IF A COUPLE OF STORMS CAN
TAKE ROOT AND DEVELOP EAST INTO GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE A THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION AS
DRY/MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER AID EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL.

..CARBIN/DEAN/GARNER.. 07/02/2010

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KTFX [021621]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KTFX 021621
LSRTFX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1020 AM MDT FRI JUL 02 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1015 AM TSTM WND GST CHESTER 48.51N 110.97W
07/02/2010 E70 MPH LIBERTY MT LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

$$

MPJ

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