SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022302
NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-030000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 PM CDT FRI JUL 02 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NERN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 438...
VALID 022302Z - 030000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 438
CONTINUES.
SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS FROM 23Z PLACES A COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE
ROUGHLY FROM 50 N OLF TO 40 NNW MLS TO 40 SW BIL. THIS COLD FRONT
HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY OUTFLOWS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...AND
CONTINUES TO SURGE SEWD. DESPITE MODERATE LL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONTAL ZONE...CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING TO INITIATE...WHICH IS
RESULTANT OF A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION EVIDENT IN THE 18Z GGW
SOUNDING. LOW-LEVEL CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS EVIDENT IN THE
23Z SFC OBS...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S/70S.
DESPITE THE COOL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE...VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN IN PLACE /GREATER THAN 9C PER KM IN THE 18Z GGW
SOUNDING/. GIVEN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...A THREAT FOR
ISOLATED ELEVATED SUPERCELLS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL...AND A LESSER THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
PIVOTING ACROSS SERN OR MAY STILL LEAD TO THE INITIATION OF NEW
CONVECTION OVER CNTRL MT THIS EVENING.
..ROGERS.. 07/02/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...
LAT...LON 44920794 44941207 48860839 48860401 44920794
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