DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 280059
SWODY1
SPC AC 280056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SAT OCT 27 2007

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..CNTRL AND S FL...

A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CNTRL FL FROM NEAR MELBOURNE
WSWWD TO SOUTH OF ST. PETERSBURG. THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS VERY
MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S IN VICINITY OF AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONT. HOWEVER...00Z RAOB DATA SHOW WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND PRESENCE OF A MODEST INVERSION NEAR 700 MB. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT...FORCING
THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER REMAINS WEAK...AND WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE DECREASING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER CNTRL AND S FL OVERNIGHT...BUT
MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.

..CNTRL AND SRN CA...

MID LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTENING ATTENDING A VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD
THROUGH CNTRL AND SRN CA HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH
BASED SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN CA. HOWEVER...EVENING RAOB
AND RUC DATA SHOW INSUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR MORE THAN VERY
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES AT BEST WITH THIS ACTIVITY. COVERAGE OF
ANY LIGHTNING THAT DOES OCCUR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10%.

.DIAL.. 10/28/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 271956
SWODY1
SPC AC 271954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SAT OCT 27 2007

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND EJECT
NEWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AS AN UPSTREAM POLAR IMPULSE DIGS
INTO THE GRTLKS REGION. MEANWHILE...CUT-OFF UPR LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES WEST OF CNTRL CA WILL REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PD.
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND SPORADIC
TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL FL VCNTY A FRONT. ELSEWHERE...THE AIR
MASS WILL BE TOO STABLE TO YIELD TSTMS.

..CNTRL FL...
TAIL-END OF A FRONT BISECTS FL VCNTY CAPE CANAVERAL-NAPLES LINE AT
MID-AFTN. GPS PWAT SENSORS SUGGESTS THAT WHILE DRY AIR HAS
INFILTRATED SRN FL...CNTRL FL NEAR THE FRONT REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY
MOIST TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. THINNING OVERCAST/DESTABILIZATION AND
CONVERGENCE DERIVED BY BOTH THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND COASTAL
CONVERGENCE WAS DRIVING A TSTM CLUSTER JUST WEST OF THE CAPE THIS
AFTN. EXPECT THAT SPORADIC TSTMS/SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
THE FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES THIS EVENING.

..COASTAL SRN CA...
WARM CONVEYOR ALONG E SIDE OF THE RETROGRADING EPAC LOW HAS TAPPED
INTO REMNANT KIKO WITH INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NEWD. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING
WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKE...PRIMARILY OFFSHORE.

.RACY.. 10/27/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 271726
SWODY2
SPC AC 271724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT SAT OCT 27 2007

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
POLAR BRANCH OF THE WLYS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NRN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY. RECENT CUT-OFF LOW BEING ABSORBED INTO THESE
WLYS TODAY WILL QUICKLY DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT NEWD TO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES EARLY ON SUNDAY. IN WAKE OF THIS IMPULSE...A STRONGER
MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTINUE ESEWD FROM THE UPR GRTLKS REGION TO
QUEBEC AND THE NERN STATES BY 12Z MONDAY...REINFORCING A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE...
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ELONGATED E-W ACROSS THE SRN
TIER OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SFC...AN OLD FRONT SITUATED ACROSS FL
WILL RETREAT NWD LATE TODAY AND EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE RESUMING A SEWD
MOVEMENT INTO CNTRL FL BY LATE SUNDAY. A NEW FRONT...FOLLOWING THE
SECOND WAVE...WILL SETTLE SEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE OH VLY.
WHILE MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL EXPERIENCE A DRY AND/OR STABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT LIMITING CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS...THE FRONT
ACROSS FL MAY BE IMPETUS FOR SPORADIC TSTMS.

..FL...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS ELY
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW STRENGTHENS ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE NERN
TROUGH. THUS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
AND SUPPORT WWD MOVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. THOUGH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE APT TO BE
MOIST-ADIABATIC AT BEST...SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY
OCCUR...PRIMARILY VCNTY THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE
EAST COAST WHERE FRICTIONAL AFFECTS CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED SPEED
CONVERGENCE/UVV.

.RACY.. 10/27/2007

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KBOU [271613]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS55 KBOU 271613
LSRBOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1011 PM MDT SAT OCT 27 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

NO CURRENT REPORTS AVAILABLE

&&

$$

BENTON

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 271605
SWODY1
SPC AC 271603

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2007

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

THE UPPER LOW THAT HAD BEEN MEANDERING AROUND THE SCENTRAL U.S. MUCH
OF THIS PAST WEEK IS RAPIDLY BEING ABSORBED BACK INTO THE WESTERLIES
AS AN OPEN TROUGH. FROM ITS PRESENT POSITION OVER THE ERN OH/TN
VLYS IT WILL ACCELERATE NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY TONIGHT. UPPER
TROUGH AND THE SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM ERN NY TO
DELMARVA IS PRECEEDED BY A STRONG SLY FLOW OF DEEP MOISTURE.

WHILE STRONG WIND FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS/PCPN COUPLED
WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES PRECLUDES ANY THREAT. GIVEN MLCAPES EXPECTED
TO BE VERY LIMITED...GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG...EVEN ANY THUNDER
SHOULD MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO OFFSHORE WATERS WHERE MORE INSTABILITY
IS PRESENT.

.HALES/GUYER.. 10/27/2007

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KCHS [271421]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KCHS 271421
LSRCHS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1021 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0924 AM HIGH ASTR TIDES CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.94W
10/27/2007 CHARLESTON SC OTHER FEDERAL

HIGH TIDE LEVEL 7.11 FT MEAN LOWER LOW WATER WAS MEASURED
BY THE NOS STATION ON CHARLESTON HARBOR.

&&

$$

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 271224
SWODY1
SPC AC 271221

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2007

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..PA/NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
LARGE UPPER LOW THAT HAS DOMINATED THE WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN
STATES FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE OVERNIGHT
AS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ROTATES
EASTWARD. AS THE LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
PA/NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE HUDSON VALLEY INDICATE WINDS OF 40+ KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE INCREASING TO OVER 100 KNOTS AT 250MB. THESE STRONG WINDS
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING CONVECTIVE GUSTS IF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD BECOME ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...CURRENT GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT POOR LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP CAPE VALUES NEAR ZERO. SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY OVER THIS REGION...BUT MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS UNLIKELY. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN
FORECAST OF LESS THAN 5 PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE WIND.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG
TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE DELMARVA REGION SOUTHWARD INTO FL.
THESE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE TODAY.

.HART/GRAMS.. 10/27/2007

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DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 270804
SWOD48
SPC AC 270803

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2007

VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

..SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW INTO NEXT WEEKEND...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A GENERALLY ZONAL
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS CONCERNING
THE SMALLER SCALE PERTURBATIONS. BUT...LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING
APPEARS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. REGARDLESS AS TO JUST HOW THIS OCCURS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE EVOLVING PATTERN WILL FAVOR LOW-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES...AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN/SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT INLAND RETURN
FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AND...WITH SURFACE CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
UNCERTAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

.KERR.. 10/27/2007

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KKEY [270717]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 270717
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
317 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0200 AM TSTM WND GST 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
10/27/2007 M46.00 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A SHOWER PRODUCED A WIND GUST TO 40 KNOTS AT SAND KEY
LIGHT C-MAN STATION. NO LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED IN THE
VICINITY.

&&

$$

JR

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KKEY [270712]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 270712
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
312 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0229 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 S BOOT KEY 24.63N 81.11W
10/27/2007 M44 MPH GMZ053 FL C-MAN STATION

A SHOWER PRODUCED A WIND GUST OF 38 KNOTS AT SOMBRERO KEY
LIGHT C-MAN STATION AT A HEIGHT OF 150 FEET ABOVE SEA
LEVEL. NO LIGHTNING WAS DETECTED IN THE VICINITY.

&&

$$

JR

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KKEY [270640]: Preliminary Local Storm Report

NWUS52 KKEY 270640
LSRKEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
240 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0159 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 10 SW KEY WEST 24.46N 81.88W
10/27/2007 M45 MPH GMZ075 FL C-MAN STATION

A PASSING SHOWER PRODUCED WIND GUST TO 39 KNOTS WAS
RECORDED AT THE SAND KEY C-MAN STATION. NO LIGHTNING WAS
DETECTED IN THE VICINITY.

&&

$$

JR

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DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 270608
SWODY3
SPC AC 270606

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CDT SAT OCT 27 2007

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR
WESTERLIES WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL NEAR THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER
DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ARISES AMONG
GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE PATTERN WITHIN A WEAKER MORE SOUTHERN
STREAM. BUT...REGARDLESS...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION ANYWHERE WITHIN THE U.S. APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE. AND
..CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.

.KERR.. 10/27/2007

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DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 270447
SWODY2
SPC AC 270445

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT FRI OCT 26 2007

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
IN THE WAKE OF A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH/NORTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN
STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD MAINTAIN A DRY/STABLE THERMODYNAMIC
STRATIFICATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION. AND...CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

..FLORIDA...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A PREVIOUSLY STALLED LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE
OVER THE NORTHERN PENINSULA WILL ADVANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA DURING THIS PERIOD. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...A
MOIST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AND
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD BECOME WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. THUS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
BUT...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/CAPPING MID-LEVEL LAYERS EVIDENT IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST THAT PROBABILITIES MAY
BE NEAR MINIMUM THRESHOLDS FOR THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK.

.KERR.. 10/27/2007

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DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 270438
SWODY1
SPC AC 270435

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT FRI OCT 26 2007

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW NOW CENTERED OVER IL WILL EJECT RAPIDLY THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY...THEN INTO THE NERN STATES SATURDAY EVENING
IN RESPONSE TO A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS S
CNTRL CANADA AND THE NRN PLAINS. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS SRN QUEBEC WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD DURING THE DAY.

..DELMARVA THROUGH NJ...

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AS SLY LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE DELMARVA THROUGH NERN U.S.
IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...BY MID-DAY THE
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED TO NEAR THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC
REGION AND OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE PRESENCE OF NEAR 70
DEWPOINTS IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...WEAK LAPSE RATES...DEEP MOIST
PROFILES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP
SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS FOR ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...GIVEN
EXPECTED INSUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING...MOST STORMS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR MORE THAN AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR
TWO AT BEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN IN LAYERS WHERE THE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE -15C SUGGESTING
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL BE SPARSE.

.DIAL/GRAMS.. 10/27/2007

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